amity

Hi All,
Have not posted forever. Actually been working pretty hard.
Six players I do like today. Two are low low priced.
F. Cerundolo and Nicolas Jarry. Both are in an exceptional place. Very confident on their favorite surface. Cerundolo plays Munar, who he destroyed at the Argentina Open in Feb. Jarry is on a seriously good run, beating Dimitrov, Zverev, Ruud and Lajovic in Geneva last week. His opponent Dellien is on a bad run, losing plenty, behind a very weak serve.
My 3rd player is Azarenka to beat Andreescu. An interesting article regarding Andreescu's state of mind.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/may/27/bianca-andreescu-interview-tennis-french-open
Some of these big name players are just not 'there' mentally. Konteveit, Pliskova, Kvitova, Andreescu are all very well off financially. The 1st 3 all lost already, and they played poorly. Pliskova was useless against Stephens, Tactically just awful. Konteveit not much better against Pera. Like a zombie on the court, with no preparation. , Kvitova was awful against Bronzetti yesterday. At the most important times just so wild. She hit some balls in the back fence, and is as slow as a cart horse.  She makes Harry Maguire look fast, which is saying something.
I think a motivated Azarenka wins, probably easily after a close 1st set, against someone she matches up well with.
#4 is Krecikova who plays Lesia Tsurenko. Tsurenko is a reasonable player, but her serve is just so weak. Krecikova looks solid. She is a consistent winner, especially in early rounds of majors.
 Azarenka and Krecikova as a double almost even money.
As a 4 legged bet the odds are 2 to 1.
 
My 5th pick is Clara Burel to beat Sorribes Tormo. I watched quite a few of the Strasbourg matches, and Burel played very well. She is a former junior world #1, and will have strong home support. She is small in stature but is figuring out how to beat, bigger stronger (physically) players. She hits a looping, deep ball which will be difficult, especially on a warm Summer day. She beat Pera, Cirstea and Kanepi in Strasbourg, and lost in 3 to Svitolina.
 
My 6th pick is Linda Noskova to beat Danka Kovinic. Kovinic coming off a retirement against Krecikova in the Italian Open (while being thrashed 6-2 4-1), probably still has a slight injury worry. Call me a cynic but she is Just in Paris to collect the 1st round losers cheque.
 
Good luck today.

Shymanovich + Rublev @1.76
Udvardy really in bad shape after the injury, I don’t see her winning vs. a good qualifier like Shymanovich. Djere is a good clay court player, but in a 3/5 match Rublev should prevail even if he might drop a set or struggling a bit.

Lucas Pouille to beat Jurij Rodionov at 1.71 with Unibet
This is actually a re-match from a couple of days ago, when Pouille lost the first set and then came back strongly, with Rodionov seemingly struggling physically a little bit. Now we're in the longer format, so, if he isn't fully conditioned, he'll struggle even more, and Pouille will once again get all the crowd backing he can get.

Danilovic, Tauson, Townsend, Rus, Yastremska, Zidansek who last year got to the 3R… some uneasy customers coming out from RG qualis, as well as Karatsev, Seyboth Wild and maybe Shang for the man imo

Men's: https://rg-com-prod.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/RG_2023/Draw_EN_2023_SM_1685026405.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAUXLKHSRBFSBB34M6&Expires=1685083075&Signature=p4DL%2BRQCvXPDk%2FutceJSEa3UGro%3D
Women's: https://rg-com-prod.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/RG_2023/Draw_EN_2023_SD_1685026430.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAUXLKHSRBFSBB34M6&Expires=1685083102&Signature=GBGCse%2FDUGooOHApnYDsJEc8ArU%3D
Alcaraz - Djokovic in the same half!

It's Finals night.
Just 4 remain with pre-tournament pick Clayton taking on Price. Michael Smith taking on MVG and then we'll see the final of the 2023 Premier League.
I'm effectively on Clayton to beat Price at 5/1 here so I will leave that match alone but I will take Smith to beat MVG and hit the most 180s in the match, also. MVG had injury concerns last week and withdrew to allow Van Den Bergh to go on and win the night. He then didn't look too great in the Players Championship events. Meanwhile, Clayton won one of those events, which bodes well for pre-tournament backers.
I feel like Smith wins this evetn as of right now but hopefully Clayton can atleast make another Premier League final.
2pts Smith to beat MVG and hit most 180s 7/4 Bet365

✌️

Heather Watson (+5.5) to beat Olga Danilovic at 1.87 with Pinnacle
John Jeffrey Wolf to beat Hugo Dellien at 1.77 with Unibet
Danilovic won the ITF tournament in Madrid, and the odds for her against Watson are an over-reaction to that. The conditions will be different in Paris, she hasn't had much rest, and Watson is a decent enough opponent, so the handicap line looks a touch high to me here. Meanwhile, Wolf looked surprisingly good in Rome, and Dellien is a bit of a tourist nowadays.

Could have been so beautiful last 2 days. Cheers. 

I didn't even know he was planning to come back!

Yeah, I must admit I never ever saw him winning it. He had no form coming into it and normally that snooker isn't sustained for long periods of time. Personally don't think he'll ever do it again and it was a very weak tournament but nevertheless, it's much better to watch snooker like that then the boring stuff. Si will be gutted though because that tournament should have been his looking back. 

Grenier - Zverev under 19,5 games @1,83 bet365
Alcaraz - Dimitrov under 19.5 games @1,8 bet365
I'll give the same explanation for both picks, because I use this strategy all the time... Big favourites had big troubles in the first round, They were both close to be eliminated before they found their game and started playing as they should from the very beginning... I expect them to play like that from the start today and pretty much destroy their opponents... 6:3 6:4 is enough, even 7:5 6:1...
Seyboth Wild to beat Darderi 2:0 @2,63 bet365
I feel like this is Wild's tournament, he eliminated two Argentinian player without any issues in Argentina, better H2H, better form, better record on clay this year and overall in career... 

Selby is the Koepka of snooker. He always knows how to win at the crucible. 
Si is close now. I wonder if he will bottle it from here.

I still think Selby comes through. Good to see Si going well. Would rather him in the final than Brecel personally but I can't see him beating Selby or Allen

I have him on 125/1 I think it was , but only with small change unfortunately! Still might be worth to hedge a bit on him, we'll see. 

Well, that was tense! Looking forward to the Si/Luca match as that should be attacking and open. Whoever's sitting on Si at 1000 outright would be advised to lay some of it off as I expect he won't have much left to give after all the frames he's played or maybe he's still young enough for that not to matter. All of China will be rooting for him which brings a lot of pressure too.

WTA Madrid - Kvitova to beat Niemeier - 1.45 on Betfair
Niemeier horribly out of form, 4-12 this year with half her wins indoors. Kvitova taking lots of time to chill so she's fresh to compete. Coming off a win in Miami she will no doubt have been practising on the dirt so will be ready to smash it. 
Everything Niemeier can do Kvitova can do levels above. I was expecting 1.3 on Kvitova so all over 1.45.

It'll be worth opposing Brecel in the next round now. That result will guarantee he's overvalued, especially as he was nowhere near as good as was suggested after the match - that's just what always seems to happen when Ronnie loses. He played well there's no doubt, but to an extent he was allowed to. I don't see that happening next round.

Genuinely, I have never seen a professional snooker match, particularly in the latter stages of such a huge tournament, with such a shockingly poor standard from both players. I don't know if nerves can explain it. Jones particularly made some absolutely inexplicable mistakes, in almost every frame. Allen only got through as his level of play was not quite as appalling as Jones. Selby/Higgins will go to town on him in the semis, if this match is anything to go by.

I think with Si then it's fair. He's 20 and it's a debut for him. McGill can have no excuses.
Same in the other game I suppose. Jak Jones you can understand but despite Allen never getting very far here, he has won major tournaments and should be able to hold his nerve better than that. It's rubbish.
I think only Higgins or Selby beat Ronnie purely because they wont bottle the big shots as much. Ronnie was utter dross against Brecel yesterday evening and still came out 4-4 on the session

really crap isn't it
Ronnie, Higgins or Selby will destroy McGill on this showing. I think winner of Higgins/Selby is the eventual winner.
McGill went 8-6 up and then just gave 2 of the most ridiculous frames away. They're playing at 4-4/5-5/6-6 like it's 12-12.

Not so fast there, both Jones and Allen are challenging hard as well for the title of "most inept performance in a world snooker championship quarter final in history" 😆🤦‍♂️

Incidentally am watching Jones Allen now and the standard is not great. A lot of missed pots from both. Scrappy frames and very few big breaks aside from Jones with 94 early doors, My centuries bet not looking too likely unless both get their fingers out sharpish. Ye gods, another missed sitter from Jones 😦 this is really brutal standard at the moment, neither of them deserve to go any further on this showing. 

McGill was shocking for the first half of the session but got it back to 4-4. Both matches ended 4-4 as it goes. I watched a bit of Brecel vs Ronnie and Brecel had his chances, too. Then he absolutely bottled it. It's a wide open tournament really and if nobody excels then it's Ronnies to lose, I guess.

that pot from Higgins shouldn't really be possible. (below) that's for sure. Interesting he thinks the bottom pockets could be slightly bigger. I would be really suprised if that were true but you can't deny that pot should never happen.