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amity

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  1. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    Lol, no worries. I made an unspecified programming enhancement on Brooksby yesterday. I checked it today and he was a no select, but I'll write it off as a 'development' expense.
    No doubt Noskova is gonna win this match. She just is hitting it through Radacanu. Even her misses are net cords or super close. She already looks physically strong, and her backhand is a thing of beauty. 
  2. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    Noskova gonna beat Radacanu. That kid can really hit the ball, and doesn't look 17 years old.
  3. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    Moutet just looks as fresh as a daisy, and he has the crowd on his side.
  4. Haha
    amity reacted to Torque in French Open 2022   
    He might but do I want to trust Moutet... No I think I'll pass 
  5. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    Wawrinka is done against Moutet. Invested too much energy and now loses a close one. No way he can come back and win the last 2. 1..33 great odds on Moutet.
  6. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    i like it, even now evans is 1.25
  7. Like
    amity got a reaction from CzechPunter in French Open 2022   
    Short odds I know but I pulled the trigger on Evans at 1/4 just before he broke for a second time. 1/5 now. Surprised he's not shorter considering he'll almost definitely be two sets up soon.
  8. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    I don't think Nadal can beat Thopson 6-2 6-2 6-2 (or less). I think Thompson wins at least 3 games in 1 set, so the Nadal and over 24.5 games is the bet at odds of 1.9 . Again not going big but a 1.5 unit bet works.
  9. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    I wouldn't go crazy but I still think Lajovic is gonna beat Baez. Worth a small 1.5 unit bet at odds of 4 to 1
  10. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    Let's get the next one. I'm sitting at my comp all day, streaming two matches. 
    The inplay stuff has been good. 
    Azarenka, Krjanovic, Aliasimme, Vinolas all won.
    Lajovic actually messed up a little because he had 3 break points for the 2nd set and then had to serve out to win it. He is now playing catch up serving behind. Just makes it tricky because a couple of bad points and it's goodbye set. Good grief, as I speak he drops his serve from 40-15 ? ,
    Krejicova lost from 6-1 2-0. Not a bad pick, just unlucky that the injury flares up again. Could not bend her elbow properly to hit a forehand. Parry is really a weak opponent, yet wins 12 of 15 games, with no game. Radacanu would have quit ? 
  11. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    Azarenka v Bogdan. I think Bogdan will implode in this 3rd set, after serving for the match in the second. Would be looking at Azarenko to win and under 34.5 games which is 9 to 10
  12. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    Nadal and Djokovic on Court PHILIPPE-CHATRIER
     
  13. Like
    amity reacted to DrO in French Open 2022   
    Matches on open courts should re-start around 17.00 CET.
  14. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    In these overcast conditions, taller and physically stronger players will dominate. The overhead conditions slow the ball down, and make it bounce lower. So a person hitting a two handed backhand finds the ball in the vertical hitting zone almost all the time.  Also, someone over reliant on a big serve finds what would be an 'ace' coming back to them. Very similar to when Nadal lost to Soderling.
    I think Opelka will struggle in these conditions and am taking Krajinovic in match here (set up 2-1) at odds of 1.5
  15. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    It seems that the woman's draw is slightly more predictable than the men's at the moment. Definitely set betting looks more straight forward in the WTA, and all matches are always 3 sets, which makes back testing more relevant.
    Quite a few matchups that models rejected, that actually look good to me.
    Samsonova v kovinic was odd, because Samsonova took Swiatek close (lost 5-7 in 3rd set recently). She is tough to beat and playing well.
    It also didn't take the Trevisian v Dart match, but I think it was because Dart has hardly played on clay. I agree with @Torque and think Trevisian wins easily. Comes into the tournament having just won in Morocco (5 wins on the spin), and very good on clay, against an opponent that has not played on it much.
    The Anismova v Osaka match is just priced out of the range but I think Osaka can get her bags packed. If you look at Anismova in the Madrid Open  (3 solid wins : Sabalenka , Martic, Azarenka),  Italian Open ( Bencic, Martincova, Collins), she is bang in form. Those are 6 very good opponents ... no freebees there. Osaka well beaten by Sorribes Tormo in Madrid, and withdrawn from Italian open. Hardly great prep.
    Begu v Paolini. Paolini is struggling with her serve, and this is affecting the rest of her game and confidence. She drops a lot of serve games, and this makes it very difficult to win. In addition, Paolini has hardly played competitive clay court matches. Lost 1st round in  Madrid, withdrew? from Stuttgart, didn't play Italy, so totally not ready. It's just a see how it goes and take the 75k Euro's.
    Will take two doubles here. Begu  and  Trevisian for 6 units, and Anismova and Samsonova  for 2 units.
     
    I will take two longshots as singles today (small 1 unit bet each).
    #1) Linda Noskova to beat Miss excuses (Radacanu). Noskova is a former girls winner at French, and won 4 qualifying rounds. Only 17 years old.
    2) I like Seb Baez but he may just be out of gas. He is up against a tough opponent in Dusan Lajovic, and I think a surprise could be on the cards here, Lajovic had a solid Madrid open  winning 4/5.
  16. Like
    amity reacted to Fader in German Darts Grand Prix   
    11/1 winner as Humphries does it again 
  17. Like
    amity reacted to WinningTipster in French Open 2022   
    3 picks for the WTA French Open matches tomorrow:

    SWIATEK-7 GAMES HANDICAP OVER TSURENKO @ 1.52 pinnacle
    Swiatek is certaintly a no.1 favorite to win the tournament. Tsurenko has not been at good form lately.

    SABALENKA-6 GAMES HANDICAP OVER PAQUET @ 1.56 pinnacle
    Sabalenka is not at her best in 2022, but still is good enough to win easily.

    BADOSA-6 GAMES HANDICAP OVER FERRO @ 1.44 pinnacle
    Ferro is a good clay court player but she is out of form this season, Badosa almost always wins those matches easily.

     
  18. Like
    amity reacted to CzechPunter in French Open 2022   
    Please let's stop it here and I'm looking forward to some picks!
  19. Like
    amity reacted to Torque in French Open 2022   
    I appreciate your contributions @neilovan and I can completely understand your frustrations.
  20. Like
    amity reacted to Torque in French Open 2022   
    Two singles and a double for me to kick things off. The first single is Halys to beat Isner and this is ultimately about these conditions not being ideal for Isner. Halys is a decent clay court player and he's at home and if Isner has to rely on tie-breaks things could get interesting. Second single is Pera to beat Teichmann and although I can understand the love for Teichmann, Pera is the kind of player that can beat almost anyone when her game is on song. I'd expect Teichmann to win, but Pera is the play at the prices for me. The double is Zapata Miralles and Sasnovich to win and is about taking on their opponents. Mmoh much prefers hard courts and Wang hasn't had a decent result on clay at this level for some time.
    15pts Halys to beat Isner @ 2.70 Boyles
    20pts Pera to beat Teichmann @ 3.40 365
    10pts Zapata Miralles (vs. Mmoh) x Sasnovich (vs. Wang) @ 1.92 365
  21. Like
    amity reacted to Robinnho in French Open 2022   
    FAA might have lost in the opening round of the RG last 2 years but he has a new coach last year, Toni Nadal, the ex-coach of Rafael Nadal.  FAA is much better prepared this time and in much better condition compared to the last 2 editions.  Therefore I think winning the 1st round this time within 4 sets is within his ability.
  22. Like
    amity reacted to CzechPunter in French Open 2022   
    Alright, it's the French Open time!
    Who Will Go Further - Novak Djokovic to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 1.90 with Bet365
    Despite Alcaraz being such a great force recently, I think that Djokovic is the stronger player in the Bo5 format still and that he has an edge going into this tournament. His Rome performance was much better than in Madrid and I think that he's peaking for the occasion, while Alcaraz is bound to receive a setback at some point, it just happens that way more often than not. At 1.90, this looks worth a shot to me.
    Ons Jabeur to win the 3rd quarter at 3.50 with Bet365
    Jil Teichmann to win the 4th quarter at 8.00 with Bet365
    Two in-form players and the withdrawal from Teichmann in Rome looked more like a precaution to me. Two wilder punts, of course, but I like the odds.
    Aslan Karatsev to beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 1.75 with BetVictor
    It's form against class here, and I'll go with class. Karatsev has to start caring finally and, honestly, many of the matches he's lost on clay so far were reasonably tight and against tougher opposition than Carabelli. With so much on the line, I think there's every chance he'll raise his level and show his class again. Wouldn't back below 1.57.
    Donna Vekic to beat Mirjam Bjorklund at 1.57 with Pinnacle
    While I'm not ecstatic to back Vekic, I think this is a good price for her to continue her resurgence against Bjorklund, who'll be making a GS debut and who should find this more challenging than Buzarnescu, who Bjorklund beat to qualify in a pretty wild match that could've gone either way despite the scoreline. 
    Stanislas Warinka to beat Corentin Moutet at 1.70 with Pinnacle
    Wawrinka was struggling and, to be fair, we still don't know if he can last 5 sets. Moutet has been pretty awful recently, though, and he can be all over the place when things stop going his way. I've seen some of Moutet's recent matches and the odds just seem to be too favorable for him to my liking.
    Nuria Parrizas-Diaz (-1.5 sets) to beat Leolia Jeanjean at 1.67 with Pinnacle
    This looks like one of the bigger WTA mismatches in the first round, Jeanjean has no results at all at this level and there's every chance that she'll just error herself out. NPD has made a lot of progress recently and has plenty of experience with these match-ups.
    Christian Garin to beat Tommy Paul at 1.80 with Unibet
    Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Maxime Cressy at 1.42 with Pinnacle
    David Goffin (-1.5 sets) to beat Jiri Lehecka at 1.78 with Unibet
    Not much to be said for these one honestly, I think that the odds are just about worth it, but wouldn't go much below, particularly on Garin. Lehecka was awful last time out and Goffin has already beaten him in this season, while Cressy just shouldn't do this unless Basilashvili breaks mentally.
  23. Like
    amity reacted to neilovan in French Open 2022   
    At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.
    Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.
    Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)
    Brooksby to beat Cuevas
    Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).
    Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and
    Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.
     
    There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).
    I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.
    I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1
  24. Like
    amity reacted to CzechPunter in French Open 2022   
    Well, the most striking element is that we now have the ATP and the WTA odds turned around from what we had in so many previous years that I've already lost the count. We always had one big ATP favourite heading into Grand Slams and plenty of long shots, while the WTA was a right mess, only perhaps when Barty was in and in form (after Williams times). Now, the ATP is quite open, while the WTA has one big favorite in Swiatek. Hilarious.
  25. Haha
    amity reacted to DrO in French Open 2022   
    @CzechPunterwhere are the RG picks?


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