Ashtee
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Posts posted by Ashtee
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3 hours ago, Crouch Potato said:
Having some issues finding some data and figured my last best hope was @Ashtee Do you know where I can get AFL odds (specifically line) data for seasons 2009 and earlier? Footywire has it from 2010 onwards and Odds portal has it for bits of 2009 but was wondering if anyone knew of a more comprehensive set of data?
No, I don't know of a site. It's only of recent seasons that I've kept a record of opening h'cap. I would have a record of opening moneyline, going back to about 2002 (perhaps incomplete in spots).
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Gerrard Healy's commentary on the Richmond - Adelaide game
! Couldn't half tell he'd backed Adelaide 
, only I suspect he was on >39.5?
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You taking the Crows, crowbot?
GWS @ 3.44 & +20.5 @ 1.98
Sydney have impressed but two poor opponents. This game is a major step up in grade for them, an opponent who themselves have impressed from the preseason and should be forgiven for sloppy Rd-1 and not be underestimated for perhaps getting Geelong off the boil. This should be a tightly fought out contest and Giants are well over the odds IMO.
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Doubt there will be too much following after last week's debacle! In retrospect, Saints and Blues were poor selections (two too many
) but the others I was happy with, just that they lost. Been there before, so keep going:
St Kilda @ 3.05 & + 18.5 @ 1.90
Step well down in grade. Silence through the week is good sign regards getting selves up for maiden win, while Collingwood deal with coming down from euphoric win. Saints are not at all disadvantaged for talent on the park and I make them a slight favorite despite that game is not at Docklands. Current offers still as high as 2.90 is fantastic deal but dropping as I type.
Richmond @ 2.10
Impressive Adelaide @ 1-1 thus far but I suspect they'll find themselves under siege from a much harder nosed Richmond in this. I've marked Tigers a clear favorite.
Western Bulldogs @ 2.38
The money has seriously come for them today but still plenty of value left at underdog odds. They should be up for it and should proove too good. Hawthorn will find backing up a special effort hugely tougher than a West Coast on the road.
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I haven't exactly slayed them thus far but added St Kilda +28.5 @ 1.92
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1 hour ago, crowbot said:
Hartlett and Schulz out for Port. You do not take favorites often Ash, big surprise here. Crows home game.
I have a +10.5 bet on the Crows at $1.90
Simply that, at the time of the bet, Port should have Adelaide well and truely covered even without Hartlett but wasn't expecting Schulz for first gamer. Gives Crows a chance. Agree with home game factor too - I usually give weight to it.
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Something smelt about Richmond all night!
Essendon - Melbourne OVER 171.5 @ 1.90
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It's one of my theories to just back all the overs in Round-1 but I never seem to do it (were low last year (ave173), BTW). 6-3 last week.
Port Adelaide @ 1.67
Was planning to hold out for Hartlett fitness test in case it leads to better price but current price is too much under pressure. I think they should proove much too good and I make them much shorter than this, despite Crows can keep it close.
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Richmond @ 1.68
Probable responce from Collingwood but should proove to have the talent advantage and will be looking to lift intensity off last week's game. Interestingly, Collingwood have now won just two of last twelve matches.
Melbourne -39.5 @ 2.08
Punters seem to be having trouble visualising Melbourne beating anyone by this much but they have new found momentum and major advantage in team strength .
Gold Coast +33.5 @ 1.92
General exectation Fremantle will respond but I have doubts about their real capabilities. Finished last season as the worst team in the eight, before unimpressive through the NAB Challenge and last week. Seen to have lost their way trying to develop a higher scoring style and rule changes maybe don't suit. Gold Coast impress thus far and I expect the shrewdly coached team will be primed for it. Could easily regret not having half of bet straight up.
West Coast 1.83 & -2.5 @ 1.93
Stronger, better balanced line-up. Motivation should be strong enough to match Hawks on the rebound.
Carlton +36.0 @ 1.92
Coach should have them tracking well again and look to be building their game. Need to be a little careful of Sydney's Round-1 form and despite their top end talent, they don't have such a big advantage in team strength. Are likely to find Carlton difficult to completely shake off.
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There was money for the under imediately after Thursday's result but of coarse, as you know, 175 for Richmond together with the impotentancy of Carlton's attack, seemed on the big side, in reality.
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Fremantle @ 2.42 & +8.5 @ 1.97
The price seems an overaction to the Johnson theory + Sandilands, Bennell. They still field a highly credentialed squad, while Dogs, themselves, are missing a couple they'd like there and have gone with two first gamers. Always that danger WBD get a little ahead of themselves off a strong season (Eg. Port 2015). Dockers evens at worst IMO!
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Can't spot the dodgy one. Looks more than a reasonable chance to salue, osakabull.
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Rough outcome, Langdon! Bad luck!
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Oh, so how times have changed all of a sudden - now we're talking about gold Coast as too experienced and I notice that GWS will probably be more experienced than Melbourne.
Totally unbiased pick their, I'm sure crowbot
. I actually think Adelaide's price is a bit big too. Got to love the headline mentality, whereby losing a star player gets thought of as though Crows have lost a third of their team. There's actually a lot to like about the likely team they'll take to Docklands IMO.
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Melbourne - GWS OVER 169.5 @ 1.91
8-14 & 15-7 last season but of course rule changes and teams looking towards Hawthorn (2015 #2) model. Melbourne's previous game style obviously hasn't been good for their form, so I'll trust that they, do in fact, play a more open brand in the Round-1 conditions.
Season Wins: Sydney UNDER 14.0 @ 1.90
Have a significantly more shallow list than the dozen or so other teams contending for finals and not the best of signs when a couple of seasoned veterens can't even make it to the start line. May well find themselves subject to rebuild, with a list including fifteen gameless players and five under six games. 3.00 to Miss Top-8 is good deal, also.
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Seems fairly predictabe how the line ups will look for most teams, so no hesitation taking these prices while they lasted.
Gold Coast -32.5 @ 1.93
Have impressed in preseason, shrewdly coached and I don't expect any major surpises from Essendon.
Collingwood @ 2.43
Strange to the venue but have the superior line-up available. Are the clear cut favorite to win IMO.
Port Adelaide -26.5 @ 2.01
A couple of boys under the Essendon suspension but still have a powerful looking team, who should bring a better brand of motivation than in 2015. Saints likely to be outclassed.
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Am having trouble keeping up with all the posts in this topic.
Playoff Game-2: Perth @ 3.83
All the money is for Townsville, who are entitled strong favorte but I give Perth a better chance than this. Some cold Townsville performances has indicated season hunger was down a few percent and I had trouble seeing them as likely winners throughout. I don't totally dismiss that as a factor simply because of the importance the game, as history in sport has often shown. 3.50 or so is a good deal IMO.
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Taken Brisbane +24.5 @ 1.91
Come into it a whole lot more given conditions and final line ups.
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Good pick, crow. I would have taken that price myself had I been ready in time.
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back, crow.
Just unpin last years GF thread and we all should be happy to go. Thanks!
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Leave me out of all these red banners!
Townsville @ 2.40 & +3.5 @ 1.93
I expect they'll be tougher to beat than the complacent, soft effort in the semi. I marked them the slight favorite.
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The total went into an unexpected free fall on you after HT but still seemed the right bet.
Two experienced Gold Coast players trimmed off that squad seemed to cost the cover but that's what can happen if electing to secure an early deal.
![:\](/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
I can't seperate these two in the early game. Took Collingwood yesterday @ 2.53 & +9.5 @ 1.93
Hawks - Roos seems evens as well, IMO. North Melbourne @ 2.60 @ +15.5 @ 1.90 (taken yesterday).
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11 minutes ago, binomial said:
this is feel / guess rather than science though.
Best way to do it, sometimes!
Am really surprised (apart from reputation factor) that Adelaide are so short. Looks like humidity will be really high, so Suns, who have impressed IMO, could cash in on it.
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Gold Coast @ 4.00 & +24.5 @ 2.00
In the local home conditions Gold Coast's squad should be a lot tougher to beat than this price suggests.
2016 AFL ROUND 3
in AFL & NRL Predictions
Posted
Rain all day, although could be hit or miss game time. Was probably on low side IMO but a real gamble on weather.