Gidds

Chesterfield v Dagenham & Redbridge I'm happy to oppose Chesterfield again. They can't stop leaking goals and as their assistant said after the win at Aldershot, they can't keep having to score 4 goals to win games. Clearly they are the most likely winners, but Dagenham have been much improved since their shocking start to the season and they were the first team to beat Barnet. 5/1 is too big for me and I am happy to take a chance.   Oldham v Dorking In some ways Oldham were unlucky not to win against Gateshead last week, but I think Gateshead more than deserved the point. The defending for the Gateshead 2nd was awful as well and a team like Oldham, especially as they were a goal up, should have defended much better than they did. Unsworth continues to look clueless and I am happy to take them on here. Again on paper they should win this and Dorking are hardly in great form themselves having only beaten Southend so far, but they should have beaten Eastleigh last week and I think they have the potential to make things tricky for Oldham. The longer it stays 0-0 or if Dorking can take the lead then the more the crowd will be calling for Unsworth to go and that will make it a pretty toxic environment for the homeside.   Scarborough v Brackley Brackley had more than enough chances to have won for us against Kings Lynn on Tuesday night, but in the end they had to settle for a point having scored a very late equaliser. I think they are a fair bet to beat a Scarborough side who lost to Southport on Tuesday and weren't great in getting a point against Gloucester last Saturday.   Canvey Island v Whitehawk (Isthmian Premier) After losing to Margate on the opening day, newly promoted Whitehawk have done very well. They drew with Hastings, who are yet to lose, beat Billericay, who have won every other game and beat Horsham who have done well so far as well. That's strong form for me and they look a spot of value to beat a Canvey Island side who have struggled to find the form that saw them finish in the play-offs last season. They did beat Concord a couple of weeks ago, but they have lost every game and the 3 previous defeats were not great.    AFC Totton v Hendon and Gosport v Hungerford (Southern Premier South) Going to double up the 2 home sides here. Both have been backed which isn't a surprise. Hendon have drawn 4 of their 6 games so far, but Totton should be good enough to get the 3 points. Hungerford have struggled against the better sides so far and Gosport are clearly one of those at the moment so again ought to be too strong.   Prices from 8pm Friday night Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 15/4) Dorking 1pt @ 9/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 15/4) Brackley 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 5/4) Whitehawk 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 13/8) AFC Totton/Gosport 1pt double @ 9/4 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 2/1)

Alfreton v Scunthorpe I put Scunthorpe up last Saturday when they were odds against and they lost to Curzon although they were a bit unlucky to. I watched the first half against Scarborough on Monday and they looked very good, eventually winning the game 4-1. Alfreton allowed Kings Lynn to have 60% of the ball on Monday and I can imagine that they will allow Scunthorpe a lot of the ball here and just try to defend and then hit them on the break. I think Scunthorpe are more than good enough to overcome those tactics though and I'm going to back them at odds on against again to win.   Curzon Ashton v Tamworth Both these sides have got off to very good starts to the season and Curzon are unbeaten having won 3 and drawn 3, which includes that win against Scunthorpe mentioned above. They haven't been creating too many chances of in recent games, but they are being very clinical and they scored with all 4 shots on target on Monday against Peterborough. This is no gimmie as Tamworth look decent as well, but given they are at home I am surprised that Curzon are the outsiders so I for me there is value in backing the home side.   Farsley Celtic v Kings Lynn Celtic were unbeaten going into Monday's game at Chester, but they really struggled in that game only having 2 shots during the 90 minutes. They ended up losing 2-0, but I think they are value to get back to winning ways here. They have drawn all 3 of their home games so far, but they have played Chorley, South Shields and Tamworth and I think Kings Lynn aren't as good as those 3 teams at the moment. I know they finally won on Monday, but I'm not sure it was a sign that they were going to go flying up the table and I just think that Farsley are too big a price to win this.   Eastbourne v Weston-Super-Mare A battle between two seaside towns and one I think might be won by the away side. Eastbourne have really struggled so far this season having only won their opening game against Hampton and they have lost their last 4. There were some signs of improvement against Chelmsford, but this new side just seem to be struggling performance wise. Weston were poor in 3-0 losses to Slough and Farnborough, but were much better on Monday against Hemel and should have won rather than drawing 1-1. I think Weston are a small bit of value to win this.   Welling v St Albans There has been money for Welling and I am not surprised as they had been playing fairly well and just not getting the results, before getting 6/6 points over the bank holiday weekend when they beat Havant and Tonbridge. I watched the 2nd half when I put up St Albans to beat Havant the other week and felt like we had got away with one as I wasn't overly impressed. They have duly lost all 3 games since then against Torquay, Taunton and Bath. Their xG's have been below 1 in all 3 of those games and they just aren't creating decent chances at the moment. Welling come into this full of confidence and I would make them favourites.   Prices from around 5pm on Friday afternoon   Scunthorpe 2pts @ 21/20 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 10/11) Curzon Ashton 1pt @ 17/10 with William Hill and Bet365 (take up to 6/4) Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 13/8) Weston-Super-Mare 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone (take up to 7/4) Welling 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, Betfair, Betfred and Paddy Power (take up to 11/8)

Taken some 11/10 Scnuthorpe away to Alfreton. 
They've been playing well and scoring nice goals (apart from slipping up in some dodgy weather at Curzon), while Alfreton have lost their last 2 against lowly opposition after starting the season well.

AFC Fylde v Altrincham Altrincham fully deserved to beat Chesterfield on Saturday and I will write more on them in a minute, but it was an impressive performance and it means they are unbeaten. I've been a bit disappointed with Fylde so far as I thought they would hit the ground running after winning the title last season, but it hasn't really happened for them. I nearly opposed them on Saturday where they lost to Hartlepool on the TV. I was only able to watch the first half, but it was very easy for the home side and it highlighted the gulf that Fylde face at the moment against the better sides in the division and I think Altrincham are one of those. I'm always slightly wary about teams backing up after just the 48 hour break otherwise I would have a bigger bet because I would make them slight favs to win this.   Bromley v Southend Bromley have been poor so far and they have yet to win. Arguably they have been fortunate to even get three points on the board. Clearly there is a chance Southend might not even exist in just over a months time, but that hasn't bothered the players too much. I watched them on Friday night against Eastleigh and they were very good and it is clear they want to put on a performance for the fans. The small squad is a small concern given the quick turnaround, but having played on Friday night instead of Saturday should help on that front. They have been backed already and I'm not surprised as I think they will win again.   Chesterfield v Hartlepool I keep reading and hearing that Chesterfield are the best team in the league, while they haven't shown they are on the pitch so far and yet again they were pretty ordinary on Saturday. They managed just 4 shots against Altrincham and the goal, which was from a corner (just as it was against Oldham), was their only shot on target. In the last half hour of the game, where the home side were really on top, they only had 41% of the ball and in the 1st half, where they had more of the ball, they were just as ineffective at creating chances as they were against Oldham. Hartlepool are top of the table and deservedly so as they have looked very good so far. For some reason the home side are being backed even though they are already odds on and that makes no sense to me at all. Right now Hartlepool are the better side and whilst that could change tomorrow, they are a fantastic price.   Kings Lynn v Alfreton Kings Lynn have been pretty woeful so far this season. They have yet to win and have even been fortunate at times to pick up the 3 points they have. They hosted Gloucester last Saturday and even though we have been pretty rubbish ourselves we should have beaten them. They are the only side to have lost to Chester and Chorley got their first win against them on Saturday. Alfreton have been their usual solid selves so far although they will be a bit disappointed to lose 3-2 to a Darlington side who hadn't won prior to Saturday. Hopefully that won't happen again here and they are too big a price not to back against a home side who have yet to get going.   Havant & Waterlooville v Yeovil Havant are bottom of the table and just as per last season they are struggling at home having lost both games so far. They also lost at Welling on Saturday who were picking up their first points of the season. They now have to host a Yeovil side who ought to be challenging for the title and are currently in 3rd place in the table. I'm not surprised they are being backed, but for me the price hasn't gone far enough.   Prices taken from 9pm last night Altrincham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor (21/10 with Hills and Coral and take up to 6/4) Southend 1pt @ 5/4 with Bet365, Coral and Skybet (13/10 with Hills and take up to 11/10) Hartlepool 2pts @ 16/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfair (Bet365 are 100/30 and take up to 2/1) Alfreton 1pt @ 13/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Yeovil 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Bet365 (23/20 with Hills and take up to 4/5)   Basingstoke v AFC Totton The home side have won their last two matches, but neither were as good as Totton and whilst the number of goals they conceded on Saturday is a slight concern, I still think they will be too strong for Basingstoke and I am surprised they aren't favourites.   Worthing v Weymouth, Swindon Supermarine v Merthyr and Haringey v Enfield I am going to do a treble with three sides who are all a shade of odds on to win. Worthing have looked very good so far and were unlucky to lose the game that they have done. Weymouth have been very in and out so far and were well beaten on Saturday against Chelmsford. I think Worthing will have too much for them. Then we have two sides who are top in their respective leagues (Southern Premier South and the Isthmian Premier) and who currently have 100% travel to sides who have yet to record a point. I think that will continue and with both a shade of odds on I am happy to stick both in a double.   Prices taken at 9.50 this morning AFC Totton 1pt @ 7/5 with Betfred (6/4 with William Hills and take up to 5/4) Worthing/Merthyr/Enfield 1pt treble @ 5.4/1 with Betfred (higher is available with others)

Bromley v Wealdstone I thought Bromley looked miles off it on Saturday against Barnet. They created very little and whilst Barnet's first goal should have been ruled out for handball, they fully deserved their victory. Wealdstone will be very happy with their 4 point return so far having beaten York and drawn at Eastleigh. They look overpriced to me to make it a hat-trick of defeats for Bromley.   Eastleigh v Barnet In quirk in the fixture list the two teams who the above two played on Saturday happen to also play each other on Tuesday. Eastleigh weren't great on Saturday. They created little with only one shot on target and an xG of just 0.42. Just like on Saturday Barnet have been backed already to win again, but I still think their is juice in the price. I was impressed with their performance on Saturday and it was pleasing to see given they are the biggest bet in the outright market. Clearly not many teams win their first 3 games of the season, but I think Barnet are more than capable of doing it.   Oxford City v Chesterfield This really should be a comfortable win for the away side. Granted Rochdale only beat them 1-0 on Saturday, but it could have been more and Oxford created very little with just 1 shot on target. They still look a side miles away from the quality needed and they now host the favourites for the title. Chesterfield have already scored 9 goals in their 2 games and they should be adding to that here against the weakest side in the division. They look well worth backing to cover the -1 handicap.   York City v Altrincham York have had a poor start to the season having lost both games so far and they may well lose again here as Altrincham look to remain unbeaten. They will have been disappointed that they didn't beat Dagenham, but it was superb effort to win at Woking on Saturday. They were very clinical in scoring 3 as they only had 8 shots for an xG of 0.77, but it they showed why they should never have been priced up as outsiders to win the league and with York looking like they need more time to gel I am happy to take them on.   Havant & Waterlooville v St Albans (Wednesday night) I'm still feeling my way with Step 2 and whilst I had a few teams on my shortlist this is the only game which survived the chop. Havant have lost both games so far and whilst they might have been a bit unfortunate to lose on Saturday on the stats, it was another defeat at home in 2023 for them. I am happy to take them on again and whilst we are getting much shorter odds I still think there is value. St Albans beat Weymouth on the opening day and then more than held their own at Yeovil on Saturday when losing 2-1 which is going to be one of the toughest games they play all season. Play like they have done so far and I think they will pick up 3 points here.   Salisbury City v Swindon Supermarine (Southern Premier South) Salisbury were my outside bet for the title and they beat my main picks for the title AFC Totton on Saturday in a really good performance. Amazingly they were put in at 9/4 to start with which was just a crazy price and whilst the market has obviously started to correct itself, I still think it hasn't gone far enough. They play a Swindon side who have lost both games so far and have conceded 11 goals in the process.    Concord Rangers v Hashtag United (Isthmian Premier) As I mentioned in the ante-post preview I can't stand Hashtag United, but you have to put those feelings to one side when punting and I think they are a bet here to beat Concord. Hashtag were involved in a great 2-2 with Dulwich on Saturday which gave a clue that they should be more than capable of holding their own in this division. Concord came down last season, but I don't think they will be in the promotion mix and they looked poor on Saturday against Enfield when losing 3-0. I suspect it could be one of those games that if it was taking place later in the season we would see the prices reversed so hopefully Hashtag can land the points here.   Dulwich Hamlet v Canvey Island (Isthmian Premier) Speaking of Dulwich I make them a bet to beat the other team from Canvey Island on Tuesday night. I'm not sure why Dulwich aren't favourites to win this and they look the better side to me. Canvey did come from 2 down to win 3-2 on Saturday against Haringey which was clearly a good effort and obviously they did very well last season, but whilst it is no gimmie, like I say I don't see why Dulwich aren't favourites so they are the value bet.    Potters Bar v Enfield (Isthmian Premier) No surprise that Enfield have been well backed already, but they look a really good bet. Potters Bar struggled last season after Sammy Moore left and I think they will again this season as well. They lost 5-0 on Saturday at Carshalton and they host and Enfield side who looked very good in a 3-0 victory over Concord Rangers.   Prices from around 7pm on Monday.   Wealdstone 1pt @ 15/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 3/1) Barnet 1pt @ 7/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Ladbrokes (19/10 with Hills and 15/8 with Coral and take up to 6/4) Chesterfield -1 1pt @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Altrincham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Betfred and Ladbrokes (21/10 with Coral and take up to 7/4) St Albans 1pt @ 7/5 with Skybet, Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 5/4) Salisbury 1pt @ 11/8 with Betfred and Skybet (take up to 11/10) Hashtag 1pt @ 15/8 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 7/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 11/8) Enfield 3pts @ Evs with Skybet, Betfred (BetVictor are 23/20) (take up to 8/11)

Oxford City v Rochdale City's defending looked hopeless against Aldershot and I am more than happy to continue to oppose them. Rochdale did OK in the live game against Ebbsfleet and I don't think there was much between the two sides at all. I certainly saw enough to give me the confidence to back them at a shade of odds against to beat the team I think will finish bottom.   Bromley v Barnet Barnet have been really well backed for the live TV game, but I still think there is some juice in the price. They were good last week when taking a 3-0 lead against Hartlepool and it was only a lapse of concentration which gave Hartlepool some late hope to get it to 3-2. Bromley struggled at Halifax and I just get the sense they are a little short at the moment so I think the North London side can beat the South London side.   Havant v Chippenham Havant lost the plot in the 2nd half of last season and they were especially bad at home. They weren't great last week when losing to Weston and so I am happy to take a chance on Chippenham who got off to a solid start with a win on the opening day.   Chester v Kings Lynn Chester had a very surprising loss on the opening day at Bishops Stortford and I think they will lose this as well. This is actually a game between the teams who finished 3rd and 2nd last season and Chester have got 6 players missing going into this game. Not all the players have been named, but they don't have a huge squad so it is going to hurt them. Kings Lynn battered Hereford xG wise last Saturday although they only got a point in a 2-2 draw. Still it was a promising start and they are a decent price to beat Chester.   Rochdale 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 10/11) Barnet 2pts @ 15/8 with Coral, William Hill and Betfred (365 are a huge 11/5 and take up to 6/4) Chippenham 1pt @ 3/1 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 5/2) Kings Lynn 1pt @ 19/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Bet365 (take up to 6/4)   (Odds correct as of Friday 7pm)

I took Torquay minus 1 at Dover in the National South.
Dover were very poor last season, lucky to stay up  and have had a tough pre season recruiting players by all accounts whilst Torquay have a settled side keeping the majority of last seasons squad.
 

Aldershot v Oxford City I am not surprised that the home side have been backed already for this and I imagine that will continue to happen throughout the week. To be fair these two teams could easily have switched positions as Aldershot probably ought to have gone down, but the late managerial change to bring Tommy Widdrington in just worked. Whilst losing Tyler Cordner to York isn't great, they did get a 6 figure sum for him and whilst I don't expect them to finish any higher than mid-table, I do think Widdrington has done a solid enough job in bringing in new players to improve a struggling squad. The main reason for this bet though is that I think Oxford City are going to really struggle this season and I think they will be this terms Maidstone. They don't have much money, don't have many fans and the squad looks pretty weak for this level. I'd be a bit surprised if Aldershot weren't good enough to get off to a winning start and I reckon they will be nearer 8/11-4/6 come kick off not the odds against they currently are.   Maidenhead v AFC Fylde Because of Alan Devonshire I always think Maidenhead will stay up because he has done an amazing job over the years, but for the first time I actually think they could end up in the bottom 4 this season. They were still capable of putting in very good performances at home to the big clubs and they pushed both Notts County and Wrexham close at home last season and I suspect that might happen again this time around. They still were very close to going down though and were pretty average for most of the season. I don't really see them improving this season and for me that means they could finally go down. AFC Fylde certainly have the better squad and after winning the title last season I think they have the potential to be in and around the play-offs. I think they should be favourites for this even though they are away from home and look good value.   Rochdale v Ebbsfleet The first live National League game on TNT (the new name for BT Sport) is this one and I hope that both Step 2 champions can get off to a winning start. Ebbsfleet played some great football to win the title with ease last term and this is a real tough game for a relegated Rochdale side who haven't been at this level before. I don't think Rochdale are going to do a great deal this season and they might get a shock here. It wouldn't actually surprise me if Ebbsfleet have a bigger budget than their hosts and manager Jimmy McNulty was talking in the paper today that even the likes of Altrincham and Gateshead have been outbidding them for players. Bet365 are out on their own at 7/2 but plenty are bigger than 3/1 and I think this is a game priced up on what leagues they were in last season rather on what both sides might be capable off now they are in the same division.   Solihull Moors v Eastleigh As I mentioned in the Ante-Post preview I think Solihull could well go down this season. Neil Ardley left in the summer and I think it was because the budget was going in the wrong direction. All the key players have left and they look a side way weaker than last season. We are also talking about a side who didn't actually do that well anyway. New manager Andy Whing did a good job at Banbury, but winning a title at Step 3 is very different from managing at this level and to me he strikes me as the cheap option. If they were still going for promotion I don't think he would have got the job. Eastleigh haven't signed as well as I thought they might when it was announced Stewart Donald was coming back as owner, but they will still be going for the play-offs and this does look a very good game for them to get their season off to a winning start. I should add as well that they have still signed well, but I thought they might have spent even more cash than they have. One slight concern is they were poor away from home last season, but hopefully that wont matter here.   Prices from Sunday evening   Aldershot 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, Betfred and Ladbrokes (6/5 with Bet365 and take up to 4/5) AFC Fylde 2pts @ 13/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Boylesports and Ladbrokes (9/5 with Bet365 and take up to 11/8) Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 16/5 with William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred and Boylesports (Bet365 are 7/2 and take up to 5/2) Eastleigh 2pts @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (Bet365 are 11/5 and take up to 6/4)

After making such a huge profit last season from the ante-post bets the pressure is on to try and replicate it. Clearly that will be very tough, but only once have I not made a profit an the ante-post markets so confidence is high that will be the case again this season. 
National League After one of the most dramatic title battles we will ever see, we will no doubt move back to normality without the Hollywood duo around. Chesterfield no doubt will be glad to see the back of Wrexham and Notts County given they finished a distant 3rd and only just lost out to County at Wembley in the play-off final. In some ways they really ought to have won that game, but again I felt Paul Cook's tactics left a lot to be desired and they should have pushed harder for a 2nd goal as they really had County on the ropes. Instead they dropped off and give County enough of the ball and they will punish you in the end. I think the other thing to point out is they ought to have finished 3rd fairly comfortably, but they dropped some really silly points and only just edged ahead of Woking late on. Will Cook finally have learnt how to play the division? I'm not so sure myself and the way he decided to go to the dressing room whilst the penalty shootout was going on in the final wasn't a good look for me. How are the players expected to cope if the manager can't? He's meant to be the leader and as soon as the going got tough he was nowhere to be seen. They lacked goals at certain times last season and playing Quigley by himself upfront was never going to bring you goals. This season Will Grigg will be the man expected to get the goals and Cook has managed him before so that is a plus, but he's the type of striker who relies on the quality of ball that he gets and if that is lacking then he might not get as many goals as expected. Also it has been a few years since he was prolific in front of goal and whilst clearly down in level will help, it isn't something I like to see. Take Paul Mullin for example he was top scorer in League 2 when Wrexham signed him so he was at his peak. It isn't hard to think that Grigg might be on the way down. Having said all that, I do think they have just about the best squad in the division and I would also make them favourites. 6/1 was available in a couple of places when the league was priced up and that would have appealed e/w because they really ought to be in the top 3 at least, but they are now no bigger than 9/4 and quite frankly that price stinks. I just don't have them anywhere near as far clear as those odds suggest and I am more than happy to look elsewhere. The final point I want to make is that losing play-off finalists have a rotten record the following season. They remind me a lot like Tranmere when they lost the title to Macclesfield because they easily had the best side in the division that season, yet a slow start meant they blew the title and ended up going up via the play-offs. I can easily see them having to rely on the play-off route again to get out of the division.   The only other team in single figures are Oldham and again I am concerned about the manager. I was an Everton fan back in the 90s and I remember David Unsworth doing a great job at the back for them, but he didn't always convince me last season when he took over at Oldham. I watched a few of their games towards the back end and whilst they did finish the season well, I wasn't really taken by the performances. They clearly have money to spend though and they have really improved the squad so they really ought to be challenging for the title this time around. Fans are already split on Unsworth so if they do get off to a slow start then I fully expect them to get on his back and we would likely see a change at the top. Stockport proved a couple of seasons ago that a slow start and a change of manager isn't a hindrance to winning the league so whatever happens they really ought to be bang in contention.   Rochdale and Hartlepool were the two relegated sides from last season and they are both next in the betting. It has been proven time and time again how hard it is to go back up at the first time of asking and neither side look like they are going to challenge that rule. At the same time I would be surprised if either did a Scunthorpe and went down again, but the both look mid-table to fringe play-off contenders to me.   We then get to Woking who really ought to have punished Chesterfield for their slip-ups and finished 3rd (and land my e/w bet at 66/1 in the process), but I think at their first chance of being properly in play-off contention they were just found wanting late on. I think it was the same in the play-offs themselves as well as they blew a 1-0 lead to lose 2-1 to Bromley. On the plus side last season should have given them plenty of experience of being contenders and I think they will improve this season. I'm a big fan of Darren Sarll and I think he realised he didn't need to do too much to the squad, but what he has done ought to improve them and given they were only just behind Chesterfield last season, I just don't see how one can be 9/4 and the other 14/1.   Not that is lasted long, but York were put into 100/1 by BetVictor when prices opened up and the odds compiler is a York fan as well.! Clearly he didn't see the input of money that was about to happen after the takeover by the Uggla family. They had tried to take over at Yeovil last season only for it to fall through. Not surprisingly they have been very well backed at big prices on the back of the signings especially spending 6 figures to buy Tyler Cordner and Dipo Akinyemi. I have a few issues with them though. First of all any value in the price has long gone for me. I'm not really sure I trust Uggla either. Something seemed off to me when he came in at Yeovil and I don't trust him to get things right at York. I'm also not sure they have the right man in place as manager to get the job done either. They have a huge squad at the moment and the Uggla has brought players with him from Yeovil who didn't look great for them this season. They could be a side I might look to back once the season starts depending on how they do, but I suspect they might need a season at least to get things right.   AFC Fylde are next in the betting which I find a little surprising. I think Adam Murray came in and did a really good job last season after the mistake of hiring James Rowe and keeping hold of Nick Haughton is a big boost for them. I can see them being possible play-off contenders, but I'd be surprised if they were title contenders.   We then come to Barnet and I think they have a massive chance. As much as I think xG stats can be a helpful tool now I also think you have to be very careful how you use them. Barnet on the stats massively over achieved, but I don't think they did at all. I'm a huge fan of Dean Brennan and I just think he got the very best out of his team. He made them very hard to beat and also they were so clinical in taking their chances when they came their way. Losing Ryan De Havilland is clearly a blow, but they have kept Nicke Kabamba and Zak Brunt should be a very good signing. Like Sarll at Woking, I think Brennan knows that he didn't need to do too much to the squad to keep them improving and the signings that he has made have improved the squad in my view. I think they have the potential to be title contenders this season.   Southend are next in the betting and they have been allowed to start the season, but I just don't know how anyone can back them given we still don't know if Ron Martin will actually sell the club and then how much money they will have to spend. They still have a transfer embargo against them at the time of writing so chances are they are only going to have a bare squad to start the season. They also have a huge threat of receiving a 10 point deduction if they haven't paid HRMC when they next go to court in just under a month. Amazingly they still have talented players at the club so if they can get things sorted and avoid a point deduction they might become a bet, but they should be double the price they are as things stand.   With Stewart Donald going back to Eastleigh they were on my radar when the season ended as a team I would be looking to back for the title this season. They really should have finished in the play-offs, but blew up massively in the final month of the season. Paul McCallum made his name at Eastleigh and he is back after ending up at Chesterfield last season. They need him to be scoring 20+ goals this season if they are to challenge. I was also quite surprised that some of the players who left were solid first teamers and I'm not sure they have made the sort of signings I expected them to make back when the season ended. I'm leaving them for now and will wait and see how they start the season.   Luke Garrard continues to do a great job at Boreham Wood, but I just wonder if he is going to be capable of getting them promotion. Fair play he has been very loyal, but I just get the sense that a change could do both manager and club a world of good. No doubt they will be in and around the play-offs again though, but I can't see them turning into title contenders. Bromley did well to get into the play-offs last season and again have a good manager in the shape of Andy Woodman. I'm not sure they look any better than last season though so can't see much progression if any. Dagenham lost a lot of key players over the summer and I'm not sure Strevens has done enough to replace them.   Two more sides worth mention for me at big prices. Gateshead ended the season in really good form and Mike Williamson has rightly earned rave reviews. It is a big jump though from where they finished last season to be title contenders and I think they might need another season to build up to that sort of level. It could be argued that Altrincham might need that as well. They really struggled after turning professional at the start of last season, but then some shrewd signings and it all clicked and at their best they looked very good. I think they have the squad to build on that first season as a professional team and for them to be outsiders and as big as 150/1 is just daft. At the very least I think they can finish in the top half and I would have them around the 33-40/1 mark. Therefore they have to be worth a very small punt at 3 figure price.   Sadly we don't have any relegation betting again, but I would be all over Solihull if it was available. They have lost their best players, Neil Ardley mysteriously left, but given he hasn't got another job it can only be because they have no money and replacement Andy Whing just strikes me as the cheap option. I expect them to struggle. I would be amazed if Oxford City didn't go down as they look way below the standard needed to survive.    So for the bets. I was toying about including Oldham based on Unsworth, but I do think they are slightly bigger than they should be so I will include them. Woking don't have much to find on Chesterfield at all and for me they are too big a price as I think they can improve again. The main bet though for me is Barnet. I rate Brennan as one of the best managers in the league and I think he has improved his squad again from last season. 22/1 is a crazy price in my view and I personally would have them shorter than a few teams above them in the betting. As mentioned above I will also be having a small, likely value loser, bet on Altrincham at huge odds.   National League North This division is all about Scunthorpe and I honestly thought they wouldn't be far off even money when the prices opened up. I'm amazed that 2/1 is still available and they really should win the league with ease. It took me by surprise the level of player they started buying in May and the squad Jimmy Dean has built is seriously impressive, indeed it is one that would be a play-off contender in the National League in my opinion. I've been told they have a League 1 budget and that doesn't surprise me. I must admit I'm not a big Jimmy Dean fan, but I'd fancy my chances of managing this team to win the title this season they have that much in hand on paper. Also there is the off the field issue of what is going to happen with the ground between the ex owner and the new owner, but I'm not sure that will hinder their progress although they do have a groundshare agreement in place should it be needed. This league looks really weak this season and quite frankly if they don't win the title I'm not sure they will ever get a better chance.   Chester drew too many games last season, but clearly they were very hard to beat and it wouldn't surprise me if they were the main rivals to Scunthorpe. I've seen people suggest Hereford are players, but they wouldn't be for me. Their manager says they have a bottom 8 budget and he's also unproven. I'm not sure their squad is anything special. Kings Lynn look weaker than last season to me so I can't see them being title contenders again. No doubt Brackley will be in and around the play-offs as usual, but hard to see this being the season when they finally get automatic promotion and I'm not sure on the choice of manager either. Boston look possible improvers after a tough season last time around and they have place claims. Buxton had a superb 2nd half of the season and if they can build on that then they can get into the play-offs this time around. I am not expecting my own side Gloucester to repeat their play-off spot this season, indeed I fear we may be in a relegation battle.   To be honest I completely understand if you only back Scunthorpe here, but I am going to have a small e/w play on Spennymoor who look over priced at 33/1. They were one of a whole host of sides who were in play-off contention last season and they have signed well over the summer and look to have a better side for the season ahead. A top 3 finish is a strong possibility for me so I will add a small e/w bet on them.   National League South Usually the National League North is stronger than the South and whilst Scunthorpe have the best side at either level, the NLS has way more depth to it this season and looks the strongest it ever has. As boring as it sounds I have to be with the relegated sides again here though in the shape of Torquay and Yeovil. I was really surprised at some of the players that Gary Johnson has been able to keep and they weren't far away from surviving last season. In fact I will go as far to say they really ought to have done. Gary Johnson has won this league with them before and I think he can do so again.   Yeovil stunk the place out last season and weren't helped at all from what was happening off the pitch. A takeover has now happened and it looks like the club are finally in a good place again. I'm a bit surprised Mark Cooper has stayed, but clearly he thinks they have a good chance of going back up and he has recruited well as well as keeping some of the better players from last season.   Eastbourne have been the movers in the betting after they were taken over during the summer and have now gone full time. I must admit though I haven't been wowed by the signings made so far and they certainly don't look as strong as the two relegated sides on paper so they wouldn't be for me at this stage. Dartford finished a distant 2nd to Ebbsfleet last season and whilst they are likely play-off contenders I can't have them as a title contender. Farnborough weren't far away from the play-offs last season and they have recruited well so if they sneaked into the top 3 I wouldn't be shocked. I can't have the other relegated side, Maidstone, at all. George Elokobi did a terrible job when he took over as manager last season and whilst they were always likely to go down, I just didn't see anything that would suggest he would be capable of getting them back up. My guess is he won't see the season out. Hampton have got interesting new owners and I can see them improving on what they did last season based on their squad.   If Havant went and won the league I would be very frustrated after being on them last season and them seemingly set for at least a top 3 finish, only for them to have a terrible 2023 and not even reach the play-offs. I can't be backing them again. I did back Worthing last season and they scored a huge 92 goals last term, but conceded 72 which stopped them from getting into the top 3. I am going to have a small e/w bet on them again though because I think they can build on that first season at this level and for me they might be the side who can take advantage if the ex League clubs don't deliver.    Isthmian League Not surprisingly Hornchurch have been put in as favourites and really they would have won the league if the lino at Horsham hadn't given the worst offside in the history of football. Mark Stimson leaving as manager was a big surprise and an even bigger surprise was getting Steve Morison in as manager. He clearly wont have been cheap and they look to have a very strong squad. I'm not sure they are much value at the prices though and I am going to look elsewhere.   Hands up, I don't like what Hashtag United stand for at all and I am also not sure their squad is near the required standard for this level either. They look way under priced as 2nd favs for me. I'm surprised Concord are so short in the betting as well because they were pretty rubbish last season in the league above and I can't see them challenging to go back up.   For me the main value is with Billericay and Dulwich. These two battled it out for the title a few years ago when a certain person was in charge at Billericay. Not surprisingly he left them in the mire and they ended up coming back down again. I'm not surprised they didn't make a play-off bid last season as the squad didn't look capable of doing so, but this time around they seem to be really going for it. Getting Gary McCann as manager was a good move and he has made plenty of good signings. I would have them clear 2nd in the betting just behind Hornchurch so they look a really good e/w price at 8/1. Dulwich should never got relegated last season, but they made a poor choice of manager after sacking Gavin Rose and they conceded way too many goals. Hakan Hayrettin came in too late to keep them up as the squad was way too soft for the battle as they showed on the final day of the season when they lost to Chippenham. He has got rid of the dead wood and recruited really well and given the level of support they have they really ought to be in title contention so again look a good e/w bet.   Out of the promoted sides I can see Chatham going well and possibly getting into the play-offs, but at the same price as them I am going to have small e/w bets on a couple of other sides. Cray did really well to reach the play-offs last season and I am a big fan of Neil Smith. He looks to have improved the squad over the summer so I am surprised they are 25/1. I am also going to back Lewes who ended the season in superb form. In their last 20 games only the two promoted sides and Canvey Island won more points than they did and it was a poor start to the season which hindered. They look well placed to build on that strong finish.   Southern Premier Central This doesn't look the strongest of leagues this season and I think Coalville look well placed to finally win promotion. I'm still not sure how they blew the title in the end as they had gained the upper-hand over Tamworth, but I wonder if the Cup runs just caught up with them late on. They look the best side in the division and at 6/1 I am happy to have a solid e/w bet on them as I can't see them finishing out of the top 3 at the very least.   Relegated AFC Telford, Kettering and Leamington don't make a huge amount of appeal at this stage, but given how weak the league is they might end up being contenders. Leiston did well last season but have lost all their best players and look way too short. I thought Mickleover could progress from their finish just outside the play-offs, but I want a double figure price so will leave them alone for now. Nuneaton were tempting and promoted Halesowen could go well also, but for now I will just stick with Coalville.   Southern Premier South Walton & Hersham are a pretty short price to win the league especially given they were promoted via the play-offs last season. They have a heavy social media presence which might have something to do with it, but they look to be relying very heavily on last seasons squad and that could be a mistake so I am more than happy to oppose at the prices. Bracknell also look poor 2nd favs as they lost their best players and look weaker than last season.    The main bet has to be AFC Totton although annoyingly the 66/1 they were put in at has long gone, but that was just a stupid price anyway. They were promoted as champions last season and have got a lot of experience in the side including Scott Rendell. They have signed well and have a decent budget on the back of decent average size crowds. They really strike me as a club on the up and clearly I'm not the only one who thinks so.   Chesham are on of the other bets. They are always either near the title race or in it and I think they can be again this season. Having Taskmaster as shirt sponsors isn't going to do any harm either as I suspect they will sell plenty on the back of that. The final bet is Salisbury who have under performed for a few seasons now. The signings over the summer though suggests they are going to give it a good go this time around and I'd fancy them to do better than some of those ahead of them in the betting so look a value bet.   National League Barnet 1pt e/w @ 22/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair  Oldham 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair Woking 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365 Altrincham 0.1pt e/w @ 100/1 with Bet365, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (Skybet are 150/1)    National League North Scunthorpe 4pts @ 2/1 with Bet365  Spennymoor 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with Skybet, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes   National League South Torquay 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 done Yeovil 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes Worthing 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes (Skybet are 18/1)   Isthmian Premier Billericay 1.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 and William Hill Dulwich 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill  Lewes 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365 and William Hill  Cray 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365   Southern Premier Central Coalville 2pts e/w @ 6/1 with Bet365 and William Hill   Southern Premier South AFC Totton 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Chesham 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365  Salisbury 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill  NB all prices were taken on Sunday (July 30th morning)

Weston and Bishops Stortford both won their leagues tonight and with Warrington having already been placed it means the total returns stand at 52.25 with the total stakes having been 30.25. There will be more profit to come as well as either Fylde or Kings Lynn will win the NLN and Tamworth will be placed at worse.

Wealdstone v Dorking Wealdstone have only picked up one point in their last 7 games and you certainly get the sense they have run out of steam after their flirtation with the play-offs ended. If there was one game I would have said wouldn't have ended goalless it would have been Gateshead v Dorking although with the home side having an xG of 3.14 it clearly shows it shouldn't have ended 0-0. Whilst Dorking may have had some good fortune in getting a point, it did continue their superb run of form where they have only lost to Woking in their last 7, winning 5 of them. In that Woking game they were unlucky to lose as well. Even though they have secured a 2nd season at this level I still think Dorking look value to win at a side badly out of form.     Taunton v Worthing Taunton have not played well in their last 2 games and Worthing look well placed to beat them. Taunton have lost 2-0 to Dulwich and 3-0 to Hungerford, both sides in a relegation battle and in the case of the latter more than likely to go down. Worthing still need 1 more win to be certain of a play-off spot and if they can get 5th then they will be at home in the first round of the play-offs, so they have plenty still to play for. The other thing is they are clearly the better side so even money and a shade of odds on look worth taking.    Alfreton v Blyth Spartans A huge game for both clubs as the home side are trying to get into the play-offs and the away side are trying in the division. Alfreton drew against Gloucester last Saturday, but were very lucky to get a point and I was told by mates at the game that they looked very tired. They then went to Banbury on Tuesday night and again got very lucky to get another point. They have had a tough schedule trying to play catch-up on their games and Blyth are giving themselves a great chance of staying up. Their win on Tuesday at Farsley was huge as they are now out of the relegation zone on goal difference on the same points as Farsley. Farsley don't often lose at home so it was a very good win. If they can carry that form into this then I think they have a chance of beating an under performing Alfreton.   Southport v Kidderminster 6 defeats on the bounce for the home side and I really like Kidderminster here who look a great bet at odds against. Given how much they have struggled for wins and goals for most of the season it is rather surprising that they have managed to get themselves in with a chance of getting a play-off spot. They have only lost to Chester in their last 10 games and in that spell have conceded just 4 times. They have won 4 on the bounce including a huge 2-0 win at Fylde and they really ought to be winning this which may make things nervy for Southport depending on results elsewhere.   Carshalton v Wingate & Finchley (Isthmian Premier) The home side have already announced that their manager is leaving after the season ends on Saturday. They haven't won in 6 games and they lost to Potters Bar last Saturday which takes some doing. I wonder how motivated the players will be given they don't have a manager to impress and with Wingate winning 3 on the bounce they might just have a chance of winning this.   Merthyr v Hayes & Yeading (Southern Premier South) Hayes have had a really tough week. They beat Tiverton 7-0 on Monday, then had a cup final on Wednesday before going to Tiverton and drawing 0-0 on Thursday. That's a lot of football and with nothing on this game it would be no surprise if they are flagging a bit. Merthyr haven't played all week and on the whole they have been strong at home this season so I am happy to back them home team. Must admit I wasn't expecting the home side to be such a big price as I only checked Bet365 to start with and they are a fair bit shorter than everyone else.   Kings Langley v AFC Rushden & Diamonds (Southern Premier Central) Two relegated sides and whilst Rushden conceded in injury time last week it still continued their good run. They did have to play on Thursday night and lost to Rushall which wasn't a huge surprise. Kings Langley haven't won in 7 games and have picked up just two points in that time. Rushden just look too big a price again to pick up a final 3 points of the season as they have been playing better than their hosts.   Nantwich v Radcliffe (Northern Premier) Both sides need 3 points here as only a win will do for Nantwich in an attempt to stay up, but a draw on Thursday night has probably cost them their chance of survival. Radcliffe really should be in the play-offs, but too many draws has meant they are out of them on goal difference going into the final day of the season. That is highlighted by the fact they have lost 2 and drawn 4 of their last 6. I think they can win this though and possibly get themselves into the play-offs.   Dorking 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 13/8) Worthing 2.5pts @ 10/11 as sent earlier Kidderminster 3pts @ 11/10 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 4/5) Wingate & Finchley 1pt @ 16/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 9/4) Merthyr 1pt @ 21/10 @ Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 6/4) Rushden & Diamonds 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (BetVictor are 27/10 and take up to 15/8) Radcliffe 1pt @ 5/4 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 11/10)

Altrincham v Solihull Moors The home side had lost 4 on the bounce in the league, but they have turned it around with two superb victories against Woking and Barnet, the 2 sides along with Chesterfield who are battling for 3rd place. They rate one of the better bets of the weekend for me because I saw nothing from Solihull on Tuesday night to suggest they are about to turn their form around. They were pretty bad against Halifax and as I mention above they should have been defeated. Solihull just look so far off the pace at the moment and Altrincham can make it a hat-trick off victories.   Potters Bar v Folkestone (Isthmian Premier) Happy to carry on opposing Potters Bar and although Folkestone lost their star striker to Hornchurch the other week, they have been in very good form since. They should be odds on to win this.   Hednesford v Basford (Southern Premier Central) The home side are in big trouble off the pitch and you do have to wonder if they will be able to carry on next season. One thing is for certain is that if they do stay in business they will be playing in the league below as it has been a big struggle having won just 4 games. Basford have only won twice away all season, but apart from Rushden you would fancy any team to beat Hednesford right now.   St Ives v Barwell (Southern Premier Central) St Ives have had a virus going through the squad as well as injuries and suspensions and whilst they might have some players returning, I do think Barwell are worth backing here as they have been in very good form. They have lost just twice in their last 8 games and they were against Leiston and Tamworth so no shame in that.   Altrincham 2pts @ 13/10 with William Hill and Coral (take up to Evs) Folkestone 3pts @ 23/20 with BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 10/11) Basford 1pt @ 29/20 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4) Barwell 1pt @ 9/5 with Skybet, Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 13/8)

Lorient vs Monaco
In previous matches, Monaco have prevailed against Lorient, 6W-2D-2L, giving them the psychological advantage. According to above, Monaco stand the chance to win in the forthcoming game.
Pick: 2
O/U Pick: Under 2.5/3

Rennes -1/2 @1.99
Min price to bet: -1/2 @1.95
Model +value: yes, strong
Significant team news: key lw/cf Terrier out for Rennes (out for season); cm Xeka also unavailable (long-term absentee cm Santamaria still out as well, expected to be back in next couple of weeks)
Note: Terrier's injury is a huge blow for Rennes' ambition, he is a fantastic player that can play in multiple positions, he is one of the best finishers in Ligue 1, and one of the most underrated players in last couple of years - and frankly, it's quite puzzling he is still at Rennes. He has scored 21 goals in 37 Ligue 1 games last season (just 2 from penalties); and this season, he's been Rennes' (by far) best rated player, top scorer (9 goals in 16 games) and joint-leader in assists (4 ast). He suffered a cruciate ligament injury in first half of Rennes' 2-1 home win v Nice on Jan 2 (though before getting injured, he scored a goal for 1-0); and he will be a big miss in the remaining part of the season. Still, Rennes have a huge depth in attacking areas, and this will be a big chance for players like Doku and Sulemana to shine again - both of them have shown plenty of promise, well both of them are quite an established names already, but injuries have slowed them down quite a bit in last couple of years... both are healthy now, and Doku is a natural replacement for Terrier in Rennes' current formation. We have initially downgraded Rennes by 0.15 rtg points after Terrier's injury, there is no guarantee that that adjustment is good/accurate and we may be proven wrong until the end of the season, but it's also difficult not to trust in this hugely talented Rennes' squad. Now, even with Terrier, 4th placed Rennes did have problems on their travels this season, as superb 8-0-1 home record (8 straight wins) is in stark contrast with 2-4-2 on the road; with a small excuse being that, except PSG, they have played each of other top 6 teams on the road (Lens, Marseille, Monaco, Lille). Obviously, they are well aware of their away-game problems, and it was one of the focuses of coach Genesio's press conf today. Clermont won at Lyon 1-0, beating us both on hcap and TG in the process, in what looked like embarrassing bets already early in 1st half (despite market agreeing with us), and terrible Lyon performance overall. Not taking anything from Clermont, but Lyon did make things easy for them there, with incredibly lethargic, unimaginative, truly abysmal performance, which at times looked like as if they didn't care at all. This win has pushed Clermont up to 9th place, well above expectations, but also well above the position their performances so far have merited - luck factor has played an important positive role for Clermont so far. They've done better on the road than at home though, 3 defeats in last 5 at home, including defeats vs relegation candidates Brest and Troyes, who have both scored 3 goals here - and this certainly looks like a venue where Rennes should be able to start on improving on their away record. Weather conditions should be ok; Rennes' rw Bourigeaud has been absolutely sensational since Oct and may have to take on even more responsibilities after Terrier's injury; but him and plethora of attacking talent that Rennes have (Guiri, Kalimuendo, Doku, midfield led by Majer and two fantastic fullbacks in Traore and Truffert/Meling) should make sure that our estimated away win of 54.5% is not too high.
Nice -3/4 @2.13
Min price to bet: -3/4 @2.07 or -1/2 @1.84
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: the hosts' first choice rb Atal is still out-injured; head coach Favre has been sacked, with his assistant and former Nice player Didier Digard taking over hc duties
Note: Ok, we wouldn't have backed Nice here if Favre was still at helm - while he is a quality coach, things were just not all right at Nice since his appointment in the summer, the performances and results were far below expectations, with culmination a few days ago in embarrassing Coupe de France elimination against low-league side Le Puy... and Nice played with very strong 11 there, almost their best possible. Former player Digard is a new coach, he was a member of a coaching staff already and knows the team inside out, but it remains to be seen how successful he will be. So basically, while it was obvious that change is needed, there are no guarantees that this will work, and for us to trust Nice immediately after a coach change is perhaps a bit of a gamble - but looking at their roster, there is no doubt that this is a team with plenty of high quality individuals, and with no doubt that Digard will have their respect, there are some elements that make us confident this will work out well for Nice in 2nd part of the season. Montpellier have shown some signs of improvement since their coach change in mid-Oct, but they still have to be considered as widely erratic side, quite dis-balanced, with their attack miles ahead of their defensive strength (and individual quality); and they also suffered a surprising Cup exit, vs 2nd league side Pau - although at least Montpellier played with a rotated lineup in that one. Ok weather conditions, we est Nice at 58% to win this, and considering their struggles this season, and quite a poor home record (2-3-3, just 6 goals scored in those 8 games), this price could perhaps improve - but ultimately, we do expect a positive reaction after a coach change from players, who have clearly underachieved as a group so far, and perhaps some extra effort to put the Cup embarrassment behind with 3 league points.

Barnet v Gateshead
Two sides I put up on Monday and both drew. Barnet weren't as good as they were on Boxing Day and were slightly fortunate to get a draw, whilst Gateshead should have won and conceded two poor goals. They were the better side and it was disappointing they weren't able to see it out. I do fancy Barnet here though as I thought they were so good on Boxing Day and they have been in such good form of late and even though they weren't at their best on Monday they still found a way to equalise. Not surprisingly they announced that Dean Brennan has had his contract extended because he is doing a hell of a job. I don't think there is a huge amount in the price, but I certainly think they should be shorter as they are the better team and I don't think the odds represent a play-off team playing a team in a relegation battle. Also, whilst Gateshead did go to York and beat them 3-0 they have struggled away from home this season having only won twice.
 
Wealdstone v Eastleigh
Great performance from Eastleigh to land the 3pt bet on Sunday, but of course Dorking's dreadful defending did help. As I have highlighted in recent weeks Eastleigh'sHMRC  form at home and form away is vastly different and whilst I didn't want to take advantage of that when they went to Dorking, and was right to do so, I do want to back Wealdstone to beat them. They have had a strange old season having started in good form, then losing the plot and now they are back in good form again having only lost to Barnet in their last 8 games. The fact Eastleigh couldn't win at Dorking and could only score 1 goal there and then scored 4 goals against them at home just highlights for me the massive difference. I would make Wealdstone favourites so am they are fair value here.
 
Darlington v Chorley
Frustratingly Chorley managed to get their first league away win since August when we were on Fylde on Boxing Day, but I am going to oppose them again here as they travel to current top of the table Darlington. We are getting odds against as well and I think that is a big price. Darlington did lose to Scarborough at home on Boxing Day 3-2, but they had a higher xG and then on Monday they hammered them 5-2. Darlington's only other loss in their last 10 games was to Fylde and they are playing very well at the moment. 
 
Hereford v Scarborough
Speaking of Scarborough I am going to put them up to beat Hereford because they look cracking value. Hereford look pretty poor at the moment. They barely created a shot of note in the two games against Kidderminster over Christmas although they did manage a goal which gave them a point on New Years Day whereas they lost 1-0 at home on Boxing Day. They haven't won in 6 games now and before that the win was only against AFC Telford. Scarborough have only lost that game on Monday and to Chester in their last 10 and for me are a better side than Hereford so I'm more than happy to back them at over 2/1.
 
Peterborough Sports v Southport
Southport have drawn half of their last 10 league games, but they have also only lost once and whilst overall their away form doesn't look great, they are now unbeaten in 5 on their travels and they look a big price here. Peterborough revealed earlier in the week that they are currently under a transfer embargo due to an unpaid VAT bill. As far as I know that hadn't been announced anywhere before, but clearly it means they have been stuck with the same squad for a while now and I don't think it is a coincidence that they have lost their last 3 league games. Granted they were spread out across December, but this will be a tricky game for them against a team who are hard to beat right now.
 
Barnet 1pt @ 5/4 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 11/10)
Wealdstone 1pt @ 17/10 with William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 11/8)
Darlington 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill and Bet365 (take up to Evs)
Scarborough 2pts @ 23/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair (Hills are 12/5 and take up to 7/4)
Southport 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Hills are 21/10 and take up to 7/4)

Inter Milan vs Napoli
They are both aggressive teams with potent offenses. In the last 10 games, Inter have scored 2.6 goals on average while Napoli have scored 2.3. In the upcoming game, both teams will score without a doubt.
Inter and Napoli, respectively, had three out of five games end in an over goal when the O/U first odds was 2.5/3. It is predicted that the upcoming match will end with a high score.
BTTS: Y
O/U Pick: Over 3

All the Step 3 leagues play on Monday so any bets from there I will likely send out on Monday morning. 7 bets across the National Leagues and my brief reasons for them are below.   Chesterfield v Scunthorpe Although Scunthorpe did go a goal up on Boxing Day it was quite easy for Chesterfield in the end and I expect it to be even easier at home on Sunday. The -1 handicap is odds on, but I think Chesterfield are at least 2 goals better than Scunthorpe so will take the -2.   Eastleigh v Dorking Eastleigh got a rare point on the road in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day and now they are back at home I think they can get the better of Dorking who aren't playing that well at the moment. I'm actually surprised that Eastleigh have drifted out as much as they have and they are value to win this.   Boreham Wood v Barnet (Monday) I thought Barnet deserved the victory on Boxing Day. Yes, after the red cards it did disrupt Barnet more and the equaliser wasn't a huge surprise, but Barnet were the better team over the 90 minutes and I am happy to back them again here to do the double.   Gateshead v York (Monday) Gateshead did have two penalties on Boxing Day which helped them to a 3-0 victory, but they played well and that victory along with the easy FA Trophy win over Gloucester last week do hint that they are an improved side at the moment. Not a huge amount in this, but enough for me to back the home win.   Dartford v Ebbsfleet I don't think many people saw a 4-1 Dartford win coming in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day, but 3 early goals by Dartford pretty much saw the game done and dusted. Ebbsfleet are clearly capable of getting their revenge, but they are having a wobble right now so at the prices I will take Dartford to do the double.   Hampton & Richmond v Worthing Worthing won the reverse fixture 4-3 and although they had to play at Bath on Thursday so have had an extra game, they do look a big price here. Their away form is strong and Hampton have only won once in their last 8 league games and have lost 6 of those.   Chesterfield -2 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 7/4) Eastleigh 3pts @ 9/10 with Betfred (Hills are 10/11 take up to 4/6) Barnet 1pt @ 14/5 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (Coral and Ladbrokes are 29/10 and take up to 2/1) Gateshead 1pt @ 29/20 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 6/5) Dartford 1pt @ 21/10 with William Hill, Betfred and BetVictor (Bet365 are 13/5 and take up to 15/8) Worthing 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365 and SBK (take up to 7/4)

Barnet v Boreham Wood Thought it was hard to see much value in the National League on Monday. Opposing Eastleigh away from home against Dorking was half tempting, but Dorking aren't really winning matches at the moment and Eastleigh did win at Woking in the FA Trophy this week. So the one bet will be Barnet in the live BT game. Not sure why Boreham Wood have been so well backed, but that means Barnet have drifted to value price. With the FA Cup, FA Trophy and the weather neither of these sides have seen much league action of late, but Barnet have only lost twice in their last 10 league games and one of those was the 7-5 freak game at Wrexham. Boreham Wood on the other hand hadn't won in 7 until they beat Oldham 2-1 in their last league match. That was slightly fortunate as it needed a 90th minute goal to win the match and Barnet will be a tougher game than Oldham. Barnet should be favourites for me so 21/10 is a huge price.   AFC Fylde v Chorley Really like Fylde here. They come into this game in great form in the league and whilst Chorley have yet to lose at home, away from home they have only won twice and both of those came in August. At evens/shade of odds on Fylde are too big a price for me.   Havant & Waterlooville v Eastbourne Ante-post wise I hope this bet is a loser, but Eastbourne are too big for me. Havant's home form has not been good of late as they have won just twice in their last 7 home league games. Eastbourne have only lost once in their last 9 games and in their last league game they won at Ebbsfleet so they are certainly over priced for this.   Hemel Hempstead v St Albans St Albans are in good form at the moment and have only lost to Eastbourne in their last 7 league games. They are a better side than their hosts here who have only beaten Chippenham, Hungerford and Bath in their last 10 league games.     Barnet 2pts @ 21/10 with Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 11/8) AFC Fylde 3pts @ 19/20 with Skybet (Coral are 21/10 and take up to 4/6) Eastbourne 1pt @ 7/2 with Betfred (Coral are 18/5 and take up to 5/2) St Albans 1pt @ 13/8 with William Hill (take up to 11/8)  

The 2022 World Cup might be in full swing but the action in League 1 and League 2 continues to plod along. Here are the odds and ratings for the games coming up in those competitions this weekend. Tell us your predictions for this week's matches! 

Eastbourne have won 5 of their last 6 matches in all competitions, whilst only conceeding one goal in the process, their last two results being away victories at Hemel Hempstead & leaders Ebbsfleet. So the odds of 2.7 on offer, for them to win at Slough looks generous, considering that Slough have only picked up 2 points from their last 8 league games.

Altrincham v Eastleigh I am happy to carry on opposing Eastleigh away from home as I did last week when they lost to Maidenhead. Altrincham have been in good form and although they lost 3 on the bounce one was at Wrexham, and one was a 1-0 loss to Wealdstone which they should have won. I'd have them shorter than they are for this.   Dorking v York A bit surprised to see over 3.5 goals as big as it is for this given Dorking are involved. I did wonder if it wouldn't happen against Bromley last week given their lack of goals, but it duly ended up 3-2. Odds are too big on it being over 3.5 again for a Dorking game.   Maidstone v Maidenhead I was tempted to back Maidenhead, but this is just the sort of game they struggle in and actually Maidstone don't lose that often at home. They have only lost 3 times at home and drawn 5 and those have all come in their last 7 home games. I can easily see this being a low scoring draw so am happy to back the stalemate here.   Kettering v Southport (NLN) Kettering's pitch is always a right state and that has meant their home performances/results are much better than their away ones. They have lost just twice at home all season and even managed to beat Kings Lynn. Southport's away form has improved after losing 5 bounce as they have won their last 3, but given Kettering's strengths at home they shouldn't be as big a price as they are.   Kidderminster v Gloucester (NLN) Kidderminster were so lucky to beat AFC Telford on Tuesday night as they were still a goal down with less than 10 minutes to go. They then scored 2 quick goals to turn the game around, but it highlighted again how much they are under performing this season. I know Gloucester's form has fallen off the edge of the cliff and injuries have not helped, but the performance against Scarborough was much better and the late winner had an xG of just 0.07 which sums up what a wonder strike it was. I think 2 weeks off from the league will have been a big help for the team who had a very busy set of fixtures and one where the players really put in a lot of effort when King first joined. I'd still have the home side as favs, but no way should their be as much between the two sides as there is so I am happy to take an away win.   Forest Green v Alvechurch Into the FA Cup and whilst I know FGR are bottom and Alvechurch beat Cheltenham in the last round I just can't see them causing another upset. FGR managed to beat South Shields 2-0 in the previous around away from home and South Shields are miles better than Alvechurch. As much as Alvechurch performed so well against Cheltenham I just can't see them being able to pull off another freak result like that and as I said in the previous round, the fact the game is on TV helps focus the League sides minds in my view. The -1 handicap is odds against and FGR really should be covering that.   Dagenham & Redbridge v Gillingham Dagenham have been a really curious side this season having put in some stinking performances, but the vast majority of those have been away from home. They have only lost once at home and that was 5-0 against Notts County. Gillingham are really struggling at the bottom of League 2 and who knows this might be a league game I am writing about next season. I'd make Dagenham favourites to win this so they are a spot of value.   Ipswich v Buxton Ipswich didn't put out their first team against Bracknell, but you could see the massive class edge that they had and they did enough to land the handicap bet for us in the end. Now they are at home here I think they can run out easy winners against a Buxton side who aren't as good as I thought they would be this season. The handicap is at -2 again, but I think they can cover it and prove their massive class edge.   Altrincham 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Dorking v York over 3.5 goals 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, Skybet, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Maidstone v Maidenhead draw 1pt @ 23/10 with Betfred (12/5 with Bet365 and take up to 21/10) Kettering 1pt @ 5/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1) Gloucester 1pt @ 11/2 with everyone and William Hill are 13/2 (take up to 5/2) Forest Green -1 3pts @ 11/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 4/5) Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Ipswich -2 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/10)

Bromley v Halifax Bromley's form has really tailed off in recent weeks. You may remember I was really keen on them to beat Gateshead last month as they had started to score goals which had been a problem, but a 1-1 draw that afternoon was the start of a winless run of 6 games in the league. They have lost Chesterfield, Barnet, Maidenhead and then on Wednesday night against Woking. They did get a very good draw at Notts County prior to that Woking defeat though. Again, the problem seems to be scoring goals and now Halifax are much improved they are a spot of value to win this game. Their only defeat in their last 6 league games was at Wrexham which was hardly a surprise. They have beaten York, Dagenham, Oldham and on Tuesday night Solihull in that spell. That win on Tuesday was especially eye-catching as they limited Solihull to only a handful of shots. They lost in the FA Cup last week against Ebbsfleet, but going down to 10 men didn't help and Ebbsfleet have yet to lose this season. They are the team coming here in form though and whilst Bromley should be favourites I do think an away win is too big a price.   Southend v Dorking In hindsight I should have just gone for goals on Wednesday night in the Dorking game and probably should have chanced over 4.5 given how it played out in the end. Southend really impressed me on Tuesday night against Notts County and I do think they are currently the 3rd best team in the division. They are scoring goals now as I keep highlighting and they are sure to get plenty of chances against Dorking. I was originally going to go for the over 3.5 goals which I do think has every chance of happening, but instead I am going to go with Southend to win and over 2.5 goals in the game. There is every chance we could be looking at a 3/4-0 win for Southend here, but Dorking are capable of scoring as well. So despite the fact Southend's defence has been very stingy of late, a 2-1 home win wouldn't be a huge shock either. Southend should have too much for them so I think that is the stronger bet.   Torquay v Chesterfield So we add a 3-3 to the bonkers scorelines at Plainmoor in recent weeks. Given Torquay looked like they couldn't score at all for the first few weeks of the season it is hard to understand why the goals have suddenly started flowing. What's also happening though is they are conceding even more than they were as their average xG against was suggesting they would. You keep conceding good chances and eventually you are going to concede plenty of goals. We know Chesterfield have plenty of attacking threat and I think we could be looking at another goalfest so will take over 3.5 goals.   Wealdstone v Wrexham As you know I usually like to take Wrexham on away from home, but they really ought to be covering the -1 handicap against a Wealdstone side who are leaking goals. They kept their first cleansheet in 10 games in their last game at Altrincham when they won 1-0, but Alty's xG was 2.06 so clearly they should have scored. Prior to that it was 5 defeats on the bounce 2-1, 2-1, 3-1, 6-1 and 4-1. The 6-1 was at home to Notts County so clearly Wrexham have the potential to score a few here. They won 3-1 at Scunthorpe on Wednesday night and odds against on them covering the -1 handicap looks a good bet.   Chelmsford v Hampton & Richmond Just the one other bet at Step 2 and it is Chelmsford to win this. They might have one eye on the replay on Monday against Barnet, but although they drew 0-0 they didn't allow Dover to have a shot on target and their xG was 1.56 so they were unlucky not to win the game. Havant are the only team to have beaten them at home this season and they have only lost one other game. Hampton have now lost 4 on the bounce although they didn't do too badly against Ebbsfleet on Tuesday night. They have struggled on their travels only winning 3 and losing the other 5. I think Chelmsford should be a shade of odds on for this so happy to take odds against.   Halifax 1pt @ 3/1 with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 2/1) Southend to win & over 2.5 goals 2pts @ 6/4 with Coral and William Hill (take up to 11/10) Torquay v Chesterfield over 3.5 goals 1pt @ 7/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Coral (take up to 6/5) Wrexham -1 2.5pts @ 11/8 with Bet365 (take up to Evs) Chelmsford 2pts @ 5/4 with Bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power  (take up to 5/6)

Not a great price but Lewes(4-5) look good at Brighlingsea in the Isthmian premier. Lewes unbeaten in 5 whilst Brightlingsea have been suffering some very heavy losses in the last few weeks. 
My team Bromsgrove look in a bit of turmoil, 20 per cent wage cut for the players, an interim manager that is more permanent than interim to save  money, no win for ages and a very leaky defence. Royston have been very disappointing this season by their standards but I'll be on them today (7-5) 
Ps.... Are you on twitter Darran to follow?
 
 

Kidderminster v Darlington 2 sides who are likely to be in the play-offs at the end of the season and I don't think there is much between them at which makes the drift on the away side pretty mental really. Darlo did have a little wobble where they didn't win in 4 games, but then the first two of those were a draw against Brackley and a loss to Kings Lynn and they are currently the top 2 in the table. They then lost 2-1 to Buxton who happened to score with their only 2 shots on target from just 5 shots in total. Then in the 1-1 draw against Leamington they had an xG of 3.42. They followed that up with an easy win at Telford on Tuesday night. Kidderminster are just struggling for consistency as highlighted by the fact they have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 games. They were involved in good game on Tuesday night at Scarborough which the home team won 4-2. Like I say I don't think there is much between those two sides so the price on an away win is way too big.   Spennymoor v Gloucester Gloucester were disappointing on Monday, but I did fear it might be one game too many and coming so close after the Kings Lynn effort that is what happened. The game was played in horrid weather though and whilst Bradford did deserve to win their 2 goals were down to keeper error and a deflection. Gloucester signed two more players before the game as I thought, but then you had a large part of the team who had barely played together. A few days training since will have helped on that front and they travel to a Spennymoor side who have won just 3 games this season and only 1 of those was at home. We of course had Chester to beat them on Tuesday night at a big price. They have drawn half of their league games so the draw is a concern, but I think we will bounce back from Monday's loss and add more misery to Spennymoor's season.   Slough v St Albans Opposing Slough has been profitable for us in recent weeks and I was right to swerve them against a Worthing side I wasn't that impressed with when I saw them play Dulwich last week. I am happy to take them on again here though against a St Albans side who are in really good shape at the moment. There has been plenty of improvement since they sacked their manager and they come here on the back of a 6-0 win over Hampton on Tuesday night.   Darlington 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill (take up to 2/1) Gloucester 1pt @ 2/1 with Betfred, Betfair, Paddy Power, Skybet and Bet365 (William Hill 21/10 take up to 6/4) St Albans 2pts @ 17/10 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4

Yes @darranpearce is my Twitter