Alexc

Champions League Gent - Zenit St Petersburg

Zenit have finally fulfilled their potential in the Champions League and have already secured first place in the group, it has come at a cost domestically and it is no coincidence that the Premier Liga form of both Zenit and CSKA, the two CL teams, has nosedived in recent weeks, anyway, that can wait for another day. Their domestic campaign doesn't restart until March and they need to rest now and come back early to try and get into some sort of match shape for the first round of knockout games in mid February, that process has already started and several players including Hulk (who has already been allowed to return to Brazil) have not made the trip. Head coach Andre Villas-Boas has been open about his thinking and said on the club website earlier this week " In this situation, we have to decide what is more important , this match or the last 16, we should not forget about the dream of the quarter-finals, so we need to be a little more pragmatic." He then went on to give us the all too familiar football talk about "doing our best in every game and loooking for the win", but I think the first comments were the most telling and pertinent.

Gent have already taken four points from home games with Valencia and Lyon and took Zenit closer in St Petersburg than those two and would secure progression today with three points, or if Valencia failed to beat Lyon, but the Spanish club have a new coach to impress and I expect them to win on his official home debut and I am close to certain that Gent will need a maximum return here to progress. Hulk has contributed (goals/assists) to 7 of Zenit's 12 goals in the competition and they obviously lose a lot of offensive threat in his absence, centre back Nicolas Lombaerts started his professional career at Gent and went to University in the city and has spoken about returning to play for the club one day and conspiracy theorists could have a field day if he scores an own goal or makes a couple of errors !

Gent -0.5 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket

 

Champions League Olympiakos - Dinamo Zagreb


Olympiakos have put themselves in a strong position to qualify behind Bayern Munich in this group and if they win tonight, might even be able to do so with a narrow loss a home to Arsenal on Matchday 6. They won on the road against the Gunners and in Zagreb two weeks ago in a hard fought 1-0 win, that has put Dinamo under pressure and they will have to look for the win this evening . I spoke ahead of their maych with Arsenal about how the lack of domestic competition worked against Dinamo in the CL and whilst they won that game, they rode their luck at times and have failed to score, conceding six in two CL starts since. Infact, this is a club in "crisis" having just lost back to back league games, which has had the stats men searching through the record books to find out the last time that happened ! They were unbeaten last season and were 51-19-2 over the previous two years, until the first of those recent defeats . They have a host of injuries to key players and have travelled with confidence at a very low ebb and if they fall behind tonight,  a collapse like we saw in Munich (four goals conceded in 15 minutes) is not out of question.

Olympiakos -1.5 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

LOL ! Specific outs: sourcehttp://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2016/matches/round=2000634/match=2015709/prematch/preview/
Out: Aničić (rested), Shomko (rested), Cañas (rested), Maksimović (rested), Dzholchiyev (rested), Nuserbayev (rested), Twumasi (suspended)
all of these players except Twumasi featured against Gala in the 2-2 draw so it will be a big loss to save them for their domestic Kazak play-off.
Atletico -2 AH @ 1.71 Matchbook

No Benzema,no Jese,no Pepe,no Bale,no James,no Carvajal and Ramos doubtful.Really don't see why Benitez not following Stanimir Stoilov example from Astana and play his youth team against PSG tonight.It looks like a causa perduta to me.Real have not been performing well lately even though they've been gaining positive results.PSG on the other hand are monstress and smashing teams in France.Ibrahimovic is once again on top level and should be no mercy for the Spaniards today.PSG have a great opportunity to make a big step towards the 1st place in the group if they win tonight and with so much key players out i cannot see how Benitez sees things.PSG will be all guns blazing because there is no going back and i fully expect Real to struggle big time when trying to create attacks and build a play.Really,really excited about that game because i like opposing Euro giants and i see a perfect opportunity to do that again today.Odds have already started to drop but still juicy enough for me  to get involved with as i just can't see any different outcome.PSG to win @ 2.40 and PSG -1.5AH @ 4.40 both with bet365.

Also taken PSG to win at 2.5 and a bigger bet DNB at 1.7-1.78 (betfair)..PSG have been very solid at home for years and Real haven't been playing well for a while, it looks 50/50 to me who wins that group but PSG are far stronger at home than away so will look to make this game count.
Regarding Madrid's injuries, Benzema and Modric might play - expect Ramos to start. Given that Benz and Mod have muscular injuries it would be a risk to start them but it wouldn't surprise me to see Benz start. Given the way they play James is a bigger miss than Bale. PSG rested a number of players at the weekend who were carrying knocks, expect Di Maria, Veratti, Matuidi and Motta to start.
Can't resist taking Sevilla DNB at 4.5 (betfair), City without Silva and Aguero are generally a different proposition in Europe, Aguero gets most of their goals and Bony tends to look clumsy against tactically astute sides. De Bruyne is a good player and will have to take most of the creative responsibility. I don't think Sevilla are any great shakes but they have picked up a bit in the league recently Gameiro is no Bacca but the price is good and with draw cover I'll give it a go as City rarely convince in Europe like they do in the Prem.

Astana are resting players for the game against Atletico as they have an important league game at the weekend. This is from Marca;
"A visit to Calderón is never peaceful. Intensity combat Atletico played four days before a title is not the recommended recipe. Or at least, he must have thought Stanimir Stoilov, coach of Astana, aware that the Champions League is far from the war around. Given the position to prioritize, it is clear, the Kazakh league.

Therefore, both the squad and the eleven line up, there are several absences regarding the 12 players who faced Benfica and Galatasaray. Among them, Roger Canas, fixed to center field and scored on Saturday in the victory against Ordabasy. Even the added point before Turkish technician clouds intentions. "Our priority is the Kazakh League. They are nine hour flight to Madrid. I will put to rest four or five regulars," he warned.

Astana this weekend will face Kairat Almaty, leader of the League playoff decides, five points behind. Hence, the four remaining games are vital to try to reissue the title won last year for the first time in its history. "We send all our strength to win the Kairat. We are realistic and know that Atletico is better," he said."
Atletico handicap is pretty skinny at 1.425, wouldn't back them to win by 3 but -2.0AH might be playable..I expect them to win by at least two, Simeone wants to win the group and they have to win this if they are to achieve this.

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Preview: Gunners Facing Tough Task In Must Win Game
Arsenal will be looking to win their first Champions League group stage game against last season's runners up Bayern Munich at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night in a 7:45pm kick off on BT Sport Europe.
THE BET
Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 8/5 with BetVictor
Full Preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/arsenal-vs-bayern-munich-preview-gunners-facing-tough-task-in-must-win-game

In case anyone doesn't know, Croatia appointed a new manager, hasn't been in the job three weeks yet.

Georgia v Gibraltar
Gibraltar will lose this game, doubt if Georgia will score more than 4 though, defensive sides struggle to attack on masse but the Gibraltar defence - especially the goalkeeper - are of poor standard and the worst in this competition. They are decent going forward though and will attack at every opportunity - another reason they have conceded so many goals in this comp, they try to score unlike San Marino and Andorra (away at least) who just sit in and press in their defensive third. Gibraltar have scored against Scotland and Poland away and very nearly against Ireland away too so I don't think it is beyond them to score here, 4.0 looks too good to pass up.
Over 2.5 Goals and BTS - 4.0 - bet365 - 2 Points
Switzerland v San Marino
The banker of the round. No chance at all Switzerland won't score at least 3 with the players they have, San Marino haven't improved much. Only get nervous if they get a set piece in the Switzerland half which will happen probably 3 or 4 times, Switzerland haven't qualified yet so need to win the game.
Over 2.5 Goals and BTS (No) - 1.30 - bet365 - 20 Points
Croatia v Bulgaria
Bulgaria are fairly hopeless, already out of the competition they have rotated the squad quite a lot. 6 of the starters from the last match against Italy haven't been called up (1 is suspended) especially in defence they look light on experience. Popov their best attacking player has been declared fit to play which is a bonus but they have been really struggling to score goals. Croatia have to win this game - simple as that, in a right scrap to qualify. Mandzukic is injured so Kalinic will come in, he has been doing well for Fiorentina so that isn't much of a negative. Modric, Rakitic, Kovacic, Perisic will all start. Probably not worth it at current odds, best to look at it in-play.
Croatia -1.0AH - 1.65 - bet365 - 4 Points

I'm personally not confident of a United win. The Germans love that all the pressure is on United with Van Gaal saying they MUST win. Wolfsburg have huge danger in that front 4 and Kruse/Dost are good finishers. Likewise Man Utd have talent up front. They finished second in Germany last year and are accustomed to doing battle with BVB and Bayern so this occasion won't faze them. A new look unproven United side who find themselves top of the league but haven't gone through the fire yet to prove anything to us.
Can they dominate top European sides who are tactically intelligent at home and get 3 points or do they get sucked into conceding goals like Chelsea and Arsenal on Tuesday?
The common theme in both sides is a less than water tight defense which is compensated for by some heavy artillery upfront and generally two sides who get proactive and attack matches. 
I will play the plain old over 2.5  Matchbook @ 1.84

Arsenal v Olympiakos
One thing I really like here are GOALS! Arsenal have not defended well in recent weeks and I think the Greek side will be looking to exploit that weakness. Although Arsenal were impressive winners at the weekend, Leicester City still managed to score twice against the Gunners. Bellerin and Monreal are hardly what you would call reliable solid defenders whilst Mertesacker is a bit predictable and slow.
Arsenal have shipped seven goals in their last four games and Olympiakos have not kept a clean sheet in their last four games either! Both these sides will play open attack minded football so with that in mind, Both Teams To Score has to be my bet on the night. Arsenal will score, we know that and although the Greeks struggle on the road in the Champions League, they did put two goals past Juventus away last year, a team that went on to play in the final.
 
Back Both Teams To Score ~ 4 Points @ 10/11 Boylesports
 
Read Full Preview @ https://www.punterslounge.com/champions-league-betting-tips-wenger-s-men-hit-form-coming-into-european-clash