Napoleon Solo
-
Posts
31 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Napoleon Solo
-
-
20/08/13 08:00 Cashmere Technical v Ferrymead Bays 1.66 4.00 3.80 I came across this by accident and thought it was a decent opportunity. Cashmere Technical have recently won the Mainland League, but they're resting players in this match as they have a more important cup semi-final on Saturday. They did request a change of date, which was refused, so they felt they had no choice but to field an understrength side. http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/sport/9053515/Tech-coach-avoids-risk Ferrymead Bays @ 3.80 (Bet365) - 5/10 points
-
Re: Singapore > S League > 2012 12:45 Singapore Armed Forced v Gombak United 1.90 4.23 4.55 SAFFC with a fairly disappointing season so far, 7th place in the league when they should be challenging for the title and losers in the league cup semi-finals. This is Richard Bok's final season in charge of SAFFC, a club he first took control of in 2006, so he wants to bow out with victory in the Singapore Cup final in six days. With this in mind he's due to ring the changes as he looks to keep his players fresh for the final. He's said he'll rest several key players, though hasn't named them just yet. Gombak have a chance of finishing the season above SAFFC as they're currently just one point behind with both teams having two games left. Gombak have no suspensions to contend with, though Adrian Dhanaraj is still a long term casualty. Gombak are due to put out their strongest squad for their last two league matches as they aim to finish as high as possible. SAFFC and Gombak have played each other three times already this season with SAFFC winning each game 1-0, though with SAFFC making changes Gombak could be a decent bet here. Gombak @ 4.55 (Marathon) - 2 points
-
Re: WC2014 Qualifiers Friday 8th June to Wednesday 16th June 2012 Same goes for Mexico (19) against Guyana (104). It would be a massive surprise if the Mexicans didn't secure an easy victory at the Azteca. They scraped through a group which involved Barbados (178), Bermuda (109) and and understrength Trinidad (82). Mexico -4 (AH) @ 1.975 (Bet365) - 3 points Mexico -5 (AH) @ 3.2 (Bet365) - 2 points
-
Re: WC2014 Qualifiers Friday 8th June to Wednesday 16th June 2012 USA (28) v Antigua & Barbuda (105) (Fifa Rankings in brackets) Total mismatch here between the USA and Antigua. Antigua qualified for the third round group stage thanks to winning a group which included Haiti (71), US Virgin Islands (182) and Curacao (160). I'm not a big fan of the FIFA rankings but they hardly look as though they had their work cut out for them. I believe the CONCACAF rankings are inflated due to the large amount of matches some teams play outside of recognised FIFA International dates, so I'd possibly rate some of theses teams slightly lower. Anyway, the qualification format has changed this time around. Antigua never usually got to this stage as they'd been knocked out in the first or second round. The qualification stage this year has been quite good to them as they never had one of the 'major' Central American or Caribbean nations in their group (El Salvador, Trinidad, Panama, Canada or Guatemala). If they had, I'm not sure they'd have qualified. Antigua have never played against the USA as they've never qualified for the same competitions, but their recent results, especially away against the better CONCACAF nations aren't encouraging - 0-4 in Cuba and 1-8 in Guatemala. Cuba and Guatemala are hardly up there with the USA in terms of quality. The USA are at full strength and know that anything less than a comprehensive victory would be viewed unfavourably at home. The last time they played a team at home of similar strength to Antigua was when they beat Barbados 8-0. I'd expect a similar result today. USA -4 (AH) @ 2.375 (Bet365) - 3 points USA -5 (AH) @ 4.15 (Bet365) - 2 points
-
Re: World Cup 2014 Qualifiers - Oceania 08/06/12 01:00 Solomon Islands v Tahiti 2.25 3.25 3.35 (NordicBet, BetSafe) 08/06/12 05:00 New Zealand v New Caledonia 1.25 5.50 10.00 (NordicBet, BetSafe)
-
Re: World Cup 2014 Qualifiers - Oceania Fiji 1 - 1 Papua New Guinea :( Solomon Islands 1 - 1 New Zealand :)
-
Re: World Cup 2014 Qualifiers - Oceania Bollocks, just lost a massive post after Chrome crahsed! I'll retype it though as I think (hope) it's worth it. Solomon Islands v New Zealand (7.75 / 4.40 / 1.33 - BWin) The Solomons should know what they need to do to qualify for the knockout stages by the time this comes around. A Fiji win in the early game will mean at least a draw is needed to progress, anything else from Fiji will automatically mean the Solomons qualify. However, there are a few factors drawing me to a couple of bets on this game. This could be a very good night for me, or it could all go horribly wrong.
- This is a home game and the Solomons, and their fans, really want to put on over on the regional powerhouses of New Zealand.
- The Solomons have played really well in both games so far, creating plenty of chances against Papua New Guinea despite only scoring the once. They also created lots of decent chances against Fiji, despite resting some of their better players. These players return fresh for the game against New Zealand.
- The heat and humidity is intense in the Solomon Islands and has caused New Zealand plenty of problems in both games so far. They've scored goals early in the halves but they've had to sit back after this to preserve energy as they're just not used to playing in these conditions. This has been a great advantage for the amateur island nations (Fiji/PNG) when playing against the professionals of New Zealand. The Solomons are arguably a better side than both Fiji and PNG, while the players from the Solomon Islands are used to playing in this heat and humidity every week.
- New Zealand coach Ricky Herbert is due to make big changes to the playing staff now that they've qualified for the knockout stages and therefore the next round of World Cup qualification. They're likely to be missing their most experienced defenders Tony Lochheed (suspension), Ivan Vicelich and Ben Sigmund, with only captain Tommy Smith retaining his place. There are also likely to be major changes in midfield while strikers Shane Smeltz and Chris Killen are also due to be rested for the semi-finals. This could be a very inexperienced New Zealand side that lines up against the Solomons.
Taking into account the venue, heat, humidity, the Solomon Islands having their strongest squad available and a raft of changes for New Zealand I'm willing to take a chance on an upset. Solomon Islands to win @ 7.75 (BWin) - 2 points Solomon Islands to win or draw @ 2.95 (BWin) - 3 points NB: You can get 8.10 for the Solomon Islands at Nordicbet, but I'm severely restricted there after one decent win.
-
This is almost over, just the last round of group B matches, semis and final. I have been monitoring and betting on it but I've not posted on it yet as I've only just got back into serious betting and posting on forums. It's hosted on the Solomon Islands and is played in sweltering heat and humidity. The top four in the competiton (i.e. the semi-finalists) qualify for the final round of World Cup qualifying. Outright Odds (NordicBet) New Zealand - 1.13 Solomon Islands - 15.00 Tahiti - 15.00 New Caledonia - 25.00 Fiji - 50.00 Group A Tahiti 10 - 1 Samoa New Caledonia 5 - 2 Vanuatu Vanuatu 5 - 0 Samoa Tahiti 4 - 3 New Caledonia New Caledonia 9 - 0 Samoa Tahiti 4 - 1 Vanuatu Tahiti - 9 points New Caledonia - 6 points ---------------------------------- Vanuatu - 3 points Samoa - 0 points Group B New Zealand 1 - 0 Fiji An early mistake from the Fiji 'keeper gifted New Zealand the lead. However, the All Whites never built on this and Fiji came close to finding a goal of their own, denied by some decent goalkeeping. The intense heat and humidity played a massive part in New Zealands relatively low-key performance. Solomon Islands 1 - 0 Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands created a raft of chances against a well drilled PNG defence but failed to kill the game off after a bright start, while PNG created very little up front. New Zealand 2 - 1 Papua New Guinea New Zealand once again started the game well, scoring early on before sitting back to conserve energy. They also did the same at the start of the second half before once again sitting back to conserve energy in the intense heat. PNG pulled a goal back near the end of the match after a handball in the New Zealand box, but other than that never seriously threatened. Fiji 0 - 0 Solomon Islands The Solomon Islands rested some key players in preparation for their match against New Zealand, among them Benjamin Totori and Joses Nawo. Both sides created numerous chances and both had goals ruled out. 02:00 Fiji v Papua New Guinea 05:00 Solomon Islands v New Zealand New Zealand - 6 points Solomon Islands - 4 points ----------------------------------- Fiji - 1 point Papua New Guinea - 0 points Fiji v Papua New Guinea (2.00 / 3.20 / 3.50 @ Betfair) Fiji still have a chance of qualifying, albeit a slim one, but they need to beat PNG and hope New Zealand beat the Solomon Islands. Fiji have beaten PNG in the last two competitive meetings, 4-2 in a 2004 World Cup Qualifying game and 2-0 in last years Pacific Games, held in New Caledonia. Fiji have created plenty of good goalscoring chances against both the Solomon Islands and New Zealand, but their finishing has let them down. They'll be expecting better, especially from star striker Roy Krishna, a Fijian player currently playing his football in New Zealand. Papua New Guinea have been solid at the back, which has been their main strength though the lack of attacking threat has ultimately led to their elimination. They created nothing against the Solomons while New Zealand were rarely troubled in their match. Coach Frank Farina has suggested that PNG will be more attacking in this game as they've already been eliminated,which could play into Fiji's hands. PNG's main strength has been their defensive solidity, but a more attacking nature would ultimately leave more space for Fiji's attacking players. Added to this is PNGs lack of a top class striker in comparison to Fiji's Krishna (relatively speaking) and Fiji could find the win they need to give themselves a chance of qualification. Fiji @ 2.00 (Betfair) - 3 points (Bet placed earlier, now down to 1.92)
-
Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Russia 4 - 0 England
Russia Under 21 v England C Russia Under 21 squad take on a squad which consists of players from Englands non-league system. The Russian squad consists of professional players plucked from the Russian top flight, some of who were in contention for places at Euro 2012. The England C team contains mainly semi-professional players, including 8 first time call-ups. Squad below: Kenny Davis (Braintree Town FC), Nathan McDonald (GK) (Braintree Town FC), Rory McAuley (Cambridge United FC), Junior Brown (Fleetwood Town FC), Kieron Forbes (Forest Green Rovers FC), Scott Garner (Grimsby Town FC), Michael Coulson (Grimsby Town FC), Simon Ainge (Guiseley FC), Anthony Malbon (Kidderminster Harriers FC), Marvin Johnson (Kidderminster Harriers FC), James Vincent (Kidderminster Harriers FC), Andre Gray (Luton Town FC), Lindon Meikle (Mansfield Town FC), Andrew Owens (Southport FC), Stephen Brogan (Stalybridge Celtic FC), Jonathan Hedge (GK) (Tamworth FC), Joshua Wilson (Vauxhall Motors FC), Ashley Chambers (York City FC). Just kicked off, Russia currently 1.95 in play. Well worth a couple of points. Betting at Bet365 and Betfair. -
Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Russia Under 21 v England C Russia Under 21 squad take on a squad which consists of players from Englands non-league system. The Russian squad consists of professional players plucked from the Russian top flight, some of who were in contention for places at Euro 2012. The England C team contains mainly semi-professional players, including 8 first time call-ups. Squad below: Kenny Davis (Braintree Town FC), Nathan McDonald (GK) (Braintree Town FC), Rory McAuley (Cambridge United FC), Junior Brown (Fleetwood Town FC), Kieron Forbes (Forest Green Rovers FC), Scott Garner (Grimsby Town FC), Michael Coulson (Grimsby Town FC), Simon Ainge (Guiseley FC), Anthony Malbon (Kidderminster Harriers FC), Marvin Johnson (Kidderminster Harriers FC), James Vincent (Kidderminster Harriers FC), Andre Gray (Luton Town FC), Lindon Meikle (Mansfield Town FC), Andrew Owens (Southport FC), Stephen Brogan (Stalybridge Celtic FC), Jonathan Hedge (GK) (Tamworth FC), Joshua Wilson (Vauxhall Motors FC), Ashley Chambers (York City FC). Just kicked off, Russia currently 1.95 in play. Well worth a couple of points. Betting at Bet365 and Betfair.
-
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Mexico v Guatemala Can only see a decent Mexican win here, but can't find any bets to tempt me at the moment. Mexico were superb in all three group games, dispatching El Salvador and Cuba 5-0 each, and Costa Rica 4-1. Guatemala did very well to hold Honduras to a 0-0 draw in their first game, especially since they were down to 9 men. However, Jamaica were deserved 2-0 winners in their second game and the 4-0 win over Grenada was more a reflection on how poor Grenada were than how good Guatemala were. Costa Rica v Honduras Aside from the Cuban game, I thought Costa Rica were quite poor. They were very lucky to pick up a draw against El Salvador, while Mexico swept them aside in the final group game. Honduras were very unlucky not to get anything in their first game despite dominating against Guatemala, while a 7-1 win over Grenada was to be expected. The 0-1 loss to Jamaica looks poor on paper, but if you consider that had Honduras got anything from that game and topped the group, they would have been facing the USA in this round. I think Honduras are overpriced in this game and am very happy to take the 3.50 on offer at Bwin! Honduras to beat Costa Rica @ 3.50 (Bwin) - 2/10
-
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June .
-
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June .
-
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June
I was really tired when writing this after a very long day, when everything just seemed to start melting into one another!Er ... El Salvador are not playing tonight ;) -
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Jamaica v Guatemala Honduras v Grenada Jamaica started their Gold Cup with a very easy game against Grenada, Jamaica ripping apart a shambolic Grenadian defence time after time, managing 17 shots on goal to Grenada's 1. The score was only kept so low due to some decent goalkeeping from the Grenada keeper and poor finishing from the Jamaicans. Grenada didn't get the time on the ball, or the forward play, to really create any decent goalscoring chances. I watched the entirety of the Honduras v Guatemala game and I felt both teams were pretty evenly matched. Guatemala perhaps had the better of the first half, creating a couple of decent chances, while Honduras definitely came back into it in the second, especially once Guatemala were reduced to ten, and the nine, men. However, Guatemala still looked solid at the back and dealt well with everything that Honduras threw at them. As with El Salvador this morning, I feel the odds on Guatemala are vastly over inflated, simply because of one high scoring victory for todays opponents against a very poor Grenada. El Salvador aren't brilliant, but they showed against Honduras that they can create chances against the better CONCACAF teams, and are also quite resilient at the back. Jamaica won't get as many chances against El Salvador as they did against Grenada, while their back line is also likely to be tested by the decent Salvadorian strikers Henry Lopez and Carlos Ruiz. In the other match, Honduras should find Grenada much easier to break down than they did with El Salvador. The defending by Grenada was almost comical at times, though not as bad as Cuba's, and I could see Honduras putting at least the same amount of goals past Grenada that Jamaica did. Honduras are a good enough team to control the match and not allow Grenada many chances at goal as well. El Salvador AH(+0.5) @ 2.82 (10Bet) - 2/10 Honduras AH(-3) @ 2.15 (Bet365) - 3/10 Honduras AH(-4) @ 4.00 (Bet365) - 1/10
-
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June
I think you mean 'moot' point. Or 'moo' point, as Joey from Friends so eloquently explained! :unsure The point that MPLouis is trying to make is that, with the strike rate he has, if he's betting on odds of 1.33 for each bet to a level stake, he'd only be in profit by 0.33 x his stake, i.e.: Winning bets = 19 x odds of 1.33 (recurring) = 25.33 returns minus 19 original stake = 6.33 points profit. Take away the losing bets and you only have 0.33 points profit over the space of 25 bets.But he seems to have a pretty impressive hit rate, so it's a mute point. Only thing that matters, long-term, is making a profit. Odds you take to get there are irrelevant. -
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Costa Rica v El Salvador I put this bet on earlier this morning, the odds having drifted ever so slightly since then. The two team were on opposite ends of 5-0 results in their first games, Costa Rica beating Cuba, while El Salvador were beaten by Mexico. Costa Rica were helped by a very attacking display from the Cubans, which left their backline overly exposed, helping produce a score which possibly flattered the Costa Ricans somewhat. El Salvador will take heart from the fact that Cuba produced a couple of decent opportunities themselves against a somewhat inexperienced defence at International level. Conversely, El Salvador will look to a horror four minute period early in the second half against the best team in CONCACAF which ruined their night. Both teams had had chances prior to that, Mexico admittedly the better ones, but El Salvador had threatened and had kept the Mexican attack out for almost an hour. El Salvador will be facing a Costa Rican team that are no where near as good as Mexico, while Costa Rica will be facing a team that won't allow them as much space in midfield or attack as Cuba. El Salvador had beaten Costa Rica in their last two competitive meetings, though I wouldn't expect them to do it this time. However, I do feel this will be a tighter game than the odds suggest and am more than happy to take El Salvador with a +1.5 goal handicap. Costa Rica may win, but I'm hoping it won't be by any more than one goal. El Salvador AH(+1.5) @ 2.14 (Ladbrokes) - 2/10 while I'm also topping up slightly as I believe the odds are even better value now. El Salvador AH(+1.5) @ 2.31 (10Bet) - 1/10
-
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June 00:00 Costa Rica v El Salvador 1.33 5.50 11.00 02:00 Mexico v Cuba 1.13 10.50 29.00 Oddschecker
-
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup 2011 Thread There's another Gold Cup thread here which is a bit more active! ;) http://forum.punterslounge.com/f8/concacaf-gold-cup-5-25-june-117868/index2.html
-
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June
The only trouble with opposing an unknown is that they might actually be better thank you think . I saw Panama is the Copa CentroAmericano a few months ago' date=' and was quite impressed with them, but like you, I don't know anything about Guadeloupe. The assumption might be "never heard of them, so they are probably rubbish" but it's risky to bet on that basis.[/quote'] It's not that I think Guadeloupe are rubbish because I've never heard of them, as I've bet on the last couple of Gold Cups and Copa Caribbeans and made a decent amount backing Guadeloupe when they've been underrated. What I meant about them being an unknown is that they don't get a great deal of playing time together as a nation due to them not being a FIFA affiliated nation, hence not eligible for World Cup qualifiers when teams like Panama are putting in some serious game time against the bigger CONCACAF nations. -
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Panama v Guadeloupe I wasn't quite sure what to make of this game earlier today, but after a bit of reading up, and with quite a large odds range available for this, I think Panama are a decent bet to win this game. The Panamanian squad looks quite decent, and they've had some good results this year, coming third in the Copa Centroamericano behind traditional Central American powerhouses Costa Rica and Honduras. What's more, they're a settled side and have been playing as a team for a good while. They've got a lot of experienced players within this squad who've done well in previous Gold Cups, bowing out to the USA each time (pens in 2005 final, 1-2 in quarters in 2007 and a.e.t in 2009 quarters). Guadeloupe are a bit of an unknown, which is why I'm opposing them. They did extremely well to get to the final of the Copa Caribbean, losing to Jamaica, but they've not played together as a team since then. If I was going to back them I'd want slightly more than the 5.5 available. Panana to beat Guadeloupe @ 1.83 (Betfair) - 2/10
-
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June
Jamaica 4 - 0 Grenada Didn't see the match but the relative Jamaican and Grenadian stats make it look like the Barcelona v Arsenal match at Camp Nou. Jamaica Grenada Shots on goal 10 0 Shots wide 7 1 Fouls 10 9 Corner Kicks 8 1 Offsides 4 0 Possession 68% 32% Didn't have any real chance to look into Honduras v Guatemala before hand but just catching up now and watching live on Bet365. Guatemala definitely holding their own. They apparently started the better of the two before Honduras came back into it late in the first half. Pretty even at the moment.Completely agree mate, excellent reasoning and ill be following, i might also have a little punt on over 4.5 after Mexicos hammering of El salvador and Costa ricas win over cuba....it seems these smaller nations try to hold out for as long as possible but when the first goal goes in they give up so over 4.5 @ 3.50 seems like a decent longshot, as it allows Grenada to score also so theres cover... Whats your opinion on Honduras also mate? Guatemala definitely arent as bad as El salvador, cuba or grenada so its interesting..:ok -
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Jamaica v Grenada Jamaica are long odds on and it's easy to see why when you look at the squads. Jamaica are blessed with top flight footballers from Sweden and Norway, as well as professional players from the MLS and England, with a few Jamaican based players throw in for good measure. They've taken the build up to this tournament very seriously and are being seriously considered good enough to give the USA and Mexico a run for their money. Grenada are missing their better, professional players (Jason Roberts, Delroy Facey and Shalrie Joseph) and are made up of mainly amateur players from the Grenadian summer league and semi-pro players of Grenadian descent from the English non-league. They're also missing their top scorer from last year's Carribean Championships, where they finished fourth behind Cuba, Kithson Bain. Their build up to the tournament has been far from impressive with losses to Panama and St Kitts & Nevis, while they drew with Antigua and Barbuda. With the relative strengths of the squads, I'd expect a decent win from Jamaica and the 2.4 being offered by Paddy Power for Jamaica EH-2 seems decent enough. Jamaica -2 EH to beat Grenada @ 2.40 (PaddyPower) 3/10
-
Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June They're copied from Oddschecker, so various one's I'd assume. I'm just putting these up for a general overview. If I post any tips I'll put the bookmaker that I use.
New Zealand Cup
in Other European Leagues Football Predictions
Posted
Re: New Zealand Cup Cashmere Technical 1 - 2 Ferrymead Bays ;)