Mindfulness

Woking v Wrexham
Just the one bet for me on Saturday and I am keen on Wrexham to beat Woking. Wrexham have been weakened up front in the last couple of weeks, but then went and put 4 past Halifax on Tuesday night. That was a crucial win for them after losing to Notts County, Torquay and Stockport. This is certainly a drop in grade compared to those matches and as I mentioned in Tuesday's preview Woking are looking at next season already given they can't go up or down. 
Wrexham 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill

This has to be a very strong contender for worst hunter chase ever run. Fair play to connections for running in this rather than a point because even last place gets £240 and the two no hopers would struggle to win that in a point. Starweld has a point rating of 69 which is the lowest I can remember of any horse who has gone hunter chasing. Granted I haven't looked at every no hopers rating this season and he did run at Stratford last month at odds of 250/1. Milberry did at least manage to finish at Larkhill which is something had been struggling to in points, but he was last beaten 57L and he needs something to happen to the other two to win.
It really is saying something when the 2nd highest rated horse in the race is one who won a weak mares maiden last time. That was at Barbury in December and she did win very easily, but the other fancied horses all disappointed and the 2nd was a 50/1 shot. She had shown ability having finished a close 2nd in two point bumpers in the 2019 season and she finished 2nd in the same race she won this season last season. A horse called Lady Sally beat her that day and she has gone under rules since. She actually runs at Bangor tomorrow and is currently rated 97 and has shown the odd glimmer of promise, but most of her runs she hasn't run anywhere near that mark so I wouldn't want to say that So Socksy would be able to run to a mark that high. She unseated on her next start and then in her only run so far over 3m she ran very poorly when pulling up. It was probably too bad to be true, but it does mean that the trip is an unknown. With the mares allowance and the jockey's claim she does get a stone from Chase Me. She's unexposed, but her level of form so far is a long way behind Cash Me's.
I never thought I would see the day where Chase Me was favourite for a hunter chase. His pointing form is solid having won 5 on the bounce from finally losing his maiden tag 2 years ago to dead heating at Chaddesley Corbett in December. He wouldn't have won his last point at Maisemore 2 weeks ago, but that was a strong race and he ran with credit until he unseated at 2 out. He's never looked like winning a hunter chase so far although he didn't run too badly in the John Corbet Cup in 2019 or at Stratford last March. You look at the winners of those hunter chases though and you realise that this contest is a million miles away from those. He has won twice on good to firm ground so that isn't an issue and he won't get a better opportunity to win a hunter chase. Zac Baker goes back on board after riding the winning of the Maisemore race last time and it's hard to see how he doesn't win. If this was a point I reckon he would be at least 1/3 and even at his current odds he looks value.
Chase Me 4pts @ 8/11 with Betfred

Having gone so close to landing 4/4 on the draw yankee last week I am going to have another go on tonight's games. Again I am going to use Boreham Wood as a cornerstone for the bet. They travel to Chesterfield and given they tend to win their games 1-0 I don't think there will be much in this game at all. They are both good sides and the draw certainly stands out as value. Dagenham and Eastleigh are both struggling to score goals so that is another one which could easily end up as a draw. The big game of the night is Sutton v Torquay and Sutton are looking nervy having drawn 4 of their last 5 games. Torquay should have beaten Weymouth with more ease than they did on Saturday, but they are scoring goals at crucial times now and are looking better. This is going to be a nervy game though as Sutton will be happy with a point as they just need to avoid defeat and it is another I can see ending in a draw. Aldershot are inconsistent and Weymouth seem to have a knack of keeping themselves in games despite often being dominated. It wouldn't surprise me if this one ended in a draw either. 
Solihull v Notts County
I know I haven't been massively convinced with County for a while now, but they do look over priced here. They were outplayed by Hartlepool for most of the 1st half on Saturday, but they were better in the 2nd half and were a bit unlucky to lose 2-0 as they had to end the game with 10 men due to having made all 3 subs and getting an injury. Solihull are unbeaten in 4, but beating Aldershot, Wealdstone and Barnet doesn't say a huge amount. A draw against Sutton on Easter Monday is a decent effort, but as I mention above Sutton are looking nervy right now. Chances are County won't create that many chances, but they always have wonder goals in their locker and 13/5 is way over priced for me.
Woking v Bromley
I'm not massively surprised that Woking were able to see it out with 10 men against Eastleigh on Saturday, but Bromley should offer much more of an attacking threat. They did well at Stockport on Easter Monday getting a point and then beat Dagenham on Saturday. The fact they have kept two clean sheets is huge because its not something they have done since 2019. I would make them favourites for this as they look to try and keep themselves in the play-off picture whereas Woking are looking towards next season.
Chesterfield v Boreham Wood
Dagenham & Redbridge v Eastleigh
Sutton v Torquay
Weymouth v Aldershot
A draw Yankee for at total stake of 1pt
Notts County 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
Bromley 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365

Essentially at first glance you would think this should be a fairly easy task for Chameron and it might well turn out like that. The big concern you have to have in the back of your mind though is his Cheltenham performance which was shocking. He jumped terribly and he was tailing himself off at an early stage. Now clearly connections must think he is fine to run him again so soon and will be expecting a better performance. There has to be a chance though that experience will have left a mark and when he gets back on a racecourse he will remember it. I'm a bit surprised they haven't run him in a point first to help with his confidence.
What I will say is though that they have stumbled on a poor race where he only has one rival. Sam Red has been backed last night which baffles me because his form gives him no chance of beating the two in front of him in the betting. Staple Head didn't run too badly at big odds in his first two hunter chases at Ludow and Leicester, but back at Ludlow a month ago he ran poorly. His only win came in a match and he needs something strange to happen to win. Rock On Carlos needs to start now to win.
So that leaves us with the one creditable rival Wick Green. He is 5/9 in points and his stand out piece of form is his Larkhill win last January when he beat Captain Buck's by a head in a time that was 2 seconds quicker than Shantou Flyer on the same card and Wick Green carried 8lbs more. Marten was 20L back in 3rd that day and he got much closer on his next start at Horesheath, but it was still a good win on soft ground which may not have suited. Not surprisingly that was his last run of the season and he returned at Southwell in a Novice Hurdle back in December and then here in the same grade a month ago. There wasn't a huge amount of promise in them, but I suspect they were being used as fitness runs for when the trainer was able to ride him in a hunter chase or point. The quick ground looks likely to suit as well.
Chameron is clearly the right favourite, but Wick Green looks a promising rival on his pointing form especially that Larkhill win and that gives him a chance of beating the favourite, especially if he performs like he did at Cheltenham. I really hope that we don't see a non-runner because at the current price he looks a cracking e/w bet because he really ought to finish 2nd at worse and I think there is certainly a chance he can win the race.
Wick Green 2pts e/w @ 11/2 with Bet365

I am going to try something different for this afternoon's action. Firstly nothing massively stands out from a betting point of view. One thing I am annoyed with myself about is that I haven't been blindly backing Boreham Wood to draw. They have now drawn 8 of their last 9 games and it brings memories back of Chesterfield when they were drawing a lot a couple of seasons ago and long term followers will remember it was a very profitable system. They drew against the league leaders on Saturday and they play 2nd place Hartlepool today and again a draw would not surprise. I therefore thought I would pick 4 games out that I thought might end in a draw and stick them in a yankee for 1pt. The other games I am going to stick in are Maidenhead v Eastleigh, Solihull v Sutton and Wrexham v Torquay. If 2 end in a draw it will basically be money back, 3 will see a profit, 4 will be the jackpot and obviously 0 or 1 will see a loss.
Boreham Wood v Hartlepool
Maidenhead v Eastleigh
Solihull v Sutton
Wrexham v Torquay
A draw Yankee for a total of 1pt

@Kengur2017 to Punters Lounge.
I don't know if this will be useful to you or not but I have written down some things that are important to bear in mind if you want to take betting seriously:
 
Psychology
 
 
First of all, if you do not have the correct mentality then you will not be able to develop into a professional bettor.
‘Tilt’ or ‘Gambling rage’ is one of the first major obstacles that needs to be overcome if you are serious about betting. Tilt is a term usually associated with poker but it can apply to any form of betting:
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilt_(poker)
 
Tilt affects all people to some degree, some only suffer from it mildly and can completely eliminate it with a combination of changes to lifestyle and perspective. At the other end of the scale you have chronically impatient degenerates with no self discipline or perspective, the affects gambling has on these people can be highly destructive.   
 
Ask yourself: “Do I have self discipline? Can I take a loss or a string of losses and still retain my composure? Do I react to losses by making rash or impulsive bets?”.
 
Patience and self discipline are key factors if you wish to become a professional bettor. In my view any professional bettor does not see his or her line of work as a get rich quick scheme. Unless you luck out with some kind of crazy accumulator or long odds punt it will take time to build your bankroll.
 
Hurrying to reach the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow can be a toxic mentality. It’s great to visualise a better future for yourself and creating a plan to achieve that but wanting something and wanting it right now will not aid your quest.
 
Do you enjoy the process of becoming a professional bettor? If you really do not enjoy the process at all then why are you devoting your time and energy to it in the first place? Obviously the goal is to make money but you shouldn’t try to make money from something you really don’t like as it will inevitably compromise your ability to execute the process effectively.
 
You have to enjoy the process of getting there and you have to enjoy the process of learning. Never think you know it all, because believe me no-one does. The road to becoming a professional bettor is a constant process of learning and improving, the path is not smooth and chances are there will be setbacks.
 
If and when setbacks occur can you maintain your self discipline and motivation?
 
 
Bankroll Management
 
 
Obviously your betting bankroll needs to be completely segregated from all your other forms of expenditure. Your ability to pay the bills cannot be dependent on how well your betting career is doing – especially if you have a family.
 
Set aside only what you can afford to loose as your initial betting bankroll, then understand and accept that it cannot be used for anything other than betting.
 
Even if you have only set aside a relatively small amount of money for your initial bankroll you must still treat that money with respect. If you want to take betting seriously then a bet must never seem frivolous.
 
One of the first objectives of any serious bettor is to never go broke (loose their entire betting bankroll). The partitioning of your bankroll into individual bets must be sustainable.
 
A sensible way to grow your bankroll over the long term is through compounding:
 
http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/corporate-finance/3/discounted-cash-flow/compounding.aspx
 
Partition your results over quarterly or annual periods then incorporate the profits from the latest period into your staking structure.
 
For example:
 
You have an initial bankroll of $5000 which is divided into 40 individual fixed stake bets of $125 (2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 1 you make a profit of $1000 so total bankroll is now $6000.
 
Year 2 - Your fixed stake bet would be $150 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 2 you make a profit of $1200 – total bankroll now $7200.
 
Year 3 - Fixed stake would be $180 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)… and so on and so on.
 
By using compounding you can exponentially grow your bankroll in a safe and sustainable way. It will require patience and discipline, especially to begin with, but if you are consistently profitable then I would advocate it as a good way to grow your bankroll.
 
Sustainability
 
 
 
 
When it comes to sustainability as a career, one of the main questions is “Where can I get my bets on?”. Bookmakers are no fools, if you are a consistently profitable bettor then sooner or later you will get limited or banned – nothing you can do as it’s in the terms and conditions you agree to in order to bet with them.
 
One way to negate this problem is to have accounts with lots of different bookmakers and rotate your bets. It’s generally a good idea to have accounts with different bookmakers as you want to take advantage of different offers and prices etc. Despite this, rotating your bets with different vendors could still be problematic in the long term if you are consistently profitable.
 
 
Betting exchanges is the way to go if you don’t want to get banned or limited. On an exchange you’re betting against other bettors with the exchange operating as the middle man who matches up both sides of a bet. The exchange makes its money from charging commission for each bet made, usually between 2-5% (very reasonable in my opinion).
 
The main problems you will face with an exchange are:
 
Does it have the market you wish to bet on?
 
Does the market you wish to bet on have enough liquidity to get your bet matched?
 
Your access to betting exchanges will vary depending on what country you live in. Some of the main ones are:
 
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/
 
https://www.matchbook.com/
 
https://www.pinnacle.com/
 
https://www.sbobet.com/
 
https://smarkets.com/
 
If you’re not sure on who to bet with then ask around on this forum and check bookmaker review sites. Always do your research on the various operators and keep appraised of how they’re progressing. If you want betting to become your business then you have a responsibility to follow the industry at large and pay attention to new developments.
 
Never leave excess money in an online account for longer than you have to. Your bank should be the safest place to store the core of your funds – distribute them to the various exchanges and bookmakers only when necessary. This will help minimise your exposure if an operator goes bust or they inexplicably transfer your funds to bongo bongo land.
 
 
Methodology
 
 
 
From reading your post I suspect this is the area you wish to learn most about. Personally I have no special system to offer you, no low risk to high reward strategy, no promises of gold and jewels untold.
 
The phrase ‘There’s a million ways to make a million dollars’ also applies to betting. The various methods and strategies you could adopt to become consistently profitable from betting are too varied and too numerous to catalogue in a single post.  
 
Ultimately betting is about finding errors in the pricing of an event. If you believe a market has priced something incorrectly you can take advantage of it. Generally speaking, sports betting markets are not stupid. They evaluate outcomes with efficiency but this does not mean they never make mistakes. Your job is to capitalise on those mistakes at every opportunity. This requires diligence and dedication, you must always be on the lookout for opportunities in the market.
 
The more knowledge you have on a sport / subject, the more you can spot the opportunities in the market when they present themselves.
 
Specialising in a particular sport will help you, it should be a sport that you like watching and can watch regularly in order to gain qualitative information:
 
https://www.simplypsychology.org/qualitative-quantitative.html
 
Preferably it will be a sports market which is covered by the betting exchanges with enough liquidity to match your bets.
 
Personally I believe it’s important to develop your own betting strategies rather than follow or rely on other peoples. What if you are following someone else’s betting strategy but you do not really understand it and that person then disappears? You probably wouldn’t have learnt much and would be back at square one. Someone may very well come along on this thread and say “Hey Kengur, I have a great betting system that you might want to follow” and it might indeed be a good system but if you can’t fathom what’s behind it then you’re not really going to advance as a bettor. If you want to be ‘professional’ at something you have to be independent and generate your own ideas. Never rely on others to spoon feed you as it’s not sustainable over the long term.
 
Punters Lounge is a great site in my opinion – use it. I have learnt a lot from seeing how other people do things over the years on here, there’s lots of useful information on these boards. Just don’t expect anyone to wave a magic wand and make you rich overnight – the world seldom works like that.

Hopefully April can be better than March was and we start with the Good Friday fixtures where I have 3 bets.
Notts County v Wrexham
This is the live game on BT Sport which kicks off at 12.30 and I am keen on Wrexham who look over priced. They scored some really good goals in the 3-0 victory over Bromley on Saturday and that continues their really good form where they are unbeaten in 7. Scoring goals had been their issue, but they have 17 in their last 10 so they are doing better on that front and they are playing better than their hosts. County have only managed to win twice in their last 9 league games and they were against Wealdstone and Yeovil. A change of manager hasn't seemingly seen any improvement in performance as they lost on penalties to Hornchurch in the FA Trophy and then lost to Aldershot in the league on Tuesday. I am dubious about the new manager who has no knowledge of Non-League football and he clearly hasn't been able to improve them in such a short space of time. I think the fact they have been scoring wonder goals to win games has masked the fact they haven't been performing that well at all. Wrexham should be no bigger than 7/4 for me so 5/2 makes plenty of appeal.
Barnet v Solihull Moors
It is hard to know why Paul Fairclough left Barnet after the Chesterfield defeat because they still haven't announced a new manager and at least they had improved in the first two games after he took charge. I can't help but think it is cost cutting as they don't really need a manager given they can't go down this season. Solihull were much better against Aldershot last Saturday even holding on with 9 men and then they easily beat Wealdstone on Tuesday. Barnet were poor again last week and I don't think any team should be odds against to beat them at the moment so 6/5 looks a really big price.
Bromley v Wealdstone
I was surprised when Bromley sacked their manager last week as it seemed worth giving him a chance to get them into the play-offs. Like Notts County it was a surprising choice of new manager as well, but he has the perfect first game in charge. Wealdstone are awful away from home. In their last 10 away games they have managed a draw against Barnet and Torquay, but in every other game they have lost by at least 2 goals. They have conceded 28 times and scored just 4. Bromley really ought to cover the handicap here and hopefully they can avoid getting a player sent off early on as they did when they hosted Barnet recently.
Wrexham 2pts @ 5/2 with William Hill
Solihull 4pts @ 6/5 with William Hill and Betfred
Bromley -1 2pts @ 13/8 with Betfred

I have 3 bets for Saturday's action including a strong one in the live game on BT Sport.
Halifax v Sutton
I know Halifax are pretty strong at home having only lost 3 times at the Shay this season, but I can't understand how leaders Sutton are 15/8 to get 3 points here. They have gone 10 games without defeat now and have won 8 of them. The only draws were against Wrexham, where the teams cancelled each other out, and Stockport who needed an injury time equalizer to deny them the 3 points. From a Sutton point of view it was good to see them bounce back from that draw with a good 3-1 win at Bromley on Tuesday night. I find it hard to not see them winning the league now. Halifax had been unbeaten in 6, winning 5 of them, before losing to Eastleigh last Saturday. Despite them winning games though they haven't always convinced in their performances and the two wins prior to last Saturday's loss could easily have been defeats as well. I would make Sutton favourites myself so more than happy to take the 2/1.
Maidenhead v Altrincham
I opposed Altrincham on Tuesday which didn't come off, but I am hoping to get the money back by taking them on again here. Maidenhead have been impressive in their last two games when beating Chesterfield and Torquay and they have had a handy break since that Torquay game last Tuesday. Altrincham have had a busy spell having played 6 games this month and they weren't in good form prior to that win on Tuesday which is only their 2nd victory in their last 10. Altrincham's away form has seen them only pick up 1 point in their last 5 and that came at Woking. This will be much harder and I think Maidenhead should be odds on so the 6/4 makes a lot of appeal.
Solihull v Aldershot
A change of manager at Solihull hasn't led to a change in results and they have not won in 9 now and have lost their last 4. They seem to be trying hard, but they clearly are struggling to win games and a lot of that is down to the lack of goals. They have scored just once in their last 6 games and Aldershot have been scoring plenty of goals having scored 12 in their last 6. 9/4 about an away win looks over priced to me as I would make them at least 1/2 a point shorter.
Sutton 2pts @ 2/1 with William Hill and Betfred
Maidenhead 3pts @ 6/4 with Bet365
Aldershot 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill

I have a couple of bets tonight both at biggish prices.
Altrincham v Kings Lynn
Kings Lynn haven't won in 7 and Altrincham have just 1 win in 10, but take out a 3-0 loss to Woking and a 3-1 loss to Wealdstone the away side have actually been performing really well against some of the best sides in the division. That comes despite the fact they have furlough players and are down to the bare bones. This is another long away trip after going to Torquay on Saturday, but it was another small defeat. Altrincham are not playing well at the moment and I think these two sides should be closer than they are in the betting. I certainly think my doubts about Kings Lynn's small squad keeping up their level of performances is certainly factored into the odds to make it worth a bet.
Wealdstone v Woking
Asia look like they want to be with Woking, but I want to be with the home side. Woking's away form is awful and in their last 10 away games the only times they have won is at Barnet and Dover. The only other point they have picked up was at Bromley who were struggling to win at home at the time. With relegation off the table they have a much bigger game on Saturday against Hereford in the FA Trophy and I can see players rested for this lesser game which basically has nothing riding on it. Wealdstone were poor on Saturday in a 4-0 defeat at Weymouth, but then they are poor on their travels anyway. They are much better at home and I can see them taking advantage of a Woking side who will have one eye on Saturday.
Kings Lynn 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
Wealdstone 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365

Fakenham always used to have a hunter chase on this card and then they got rid of it for a few years before it returned in 2019. I have put up both winners as well since it returned so hopefully I can make it a hat-trick this afternoon. 
As the betting suggests I do think the race is a match between The Dellercheckout and Ennistown. The Dellercheckout did really well in his first 3 starts of last season when winning at Barbury, Sheriff Hutton and then on hunter chase debut at Ludlow when beating Monbeg Gold in decent style. That run sets the hunter chase standard, but he did go to Haydock for The Walrus and bombed out big time. Possibly the heavy ground was to blame but he also got a wind op in his time off the track and given the fact he still wears a tongue-tie there was clearly an issue with his wind. He returned in December at Barbury in the same race he had won the year before and he ran OK finishing a 14L 3rd to Marcle Ridge. That run suggested he needed it, but he's had another 3 months off so the benefit of that run has probably gone.
Regular readers may remember that I had Ennistown as a big eye-catcher when he was 4th behind Hazel Hill on his debut for new connections in January. He wasn't put into the race at all and was able to finish a keeping on 4th. The concern is that form hasn't been boosted at all since (unless Hazel Hill goes and runs well at Cheltenham an hour before!). He then went to The Walrus at Haydock and he didn't jump that well before pulling up. This race is obviously weaker than that contest and the crucial thing for me is that after running on testing ground both times this season he finally gets on to a sounder surface which will be much more suitable for him. The booking of Brian Hughes is very interesting and as I have mentioned before I'm a big fan of the trainer after what he did with Risk A Fine a couple of years ago.
Djin Conti is the only other one who can possibly win and he needs to come on for the run at Fontwell, but that was his first run for over year. Won a handicap at Warwick in April 2019 off 119 so is capable, but I'd want to see more than he showed at Fontwell to want to seriously consider backing him.
I think there is every chance we will see an improved performance from Ennistown and I will take him to beat The Dellercheckout and to be honest I would rate his Ludlow effort better than The Dellercheckout's 3rd at Barbury.
Ennistown 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365

Another small profit on Tuesday night to keep things ticking over for the month. I just have one bet at this stage for Saturday and I am going to be backing Barnet. They have been much improved since Tim Flowers left and Paul Fairclough has taken temporary charge. I thought last Saturday against Bromley might have been a one off because Bromley had 10 men for a lot of the game and the ref had a nightmare, but they continued that improvement against Stockport on Tuesday night. They pushed them all the way and only went down 2-1. They host Chesterfield on Saturday and Chesterfield aren't looking quite as good as they were. They weren't great when losing 2-0 to Maidenhead last Saturday and didn't create much again against Sutton on Tuesday night. Now Barnet does offer them a chance to get back to winning ways, but to me you have a team improving against a team whose performances have got worse. It obviously isn't one to go mad on, but I would make Barnet around 5/2 shots so I am happy to take my chances at 9/2
Barnet 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365

No time for previews with Cheltenham going on but I have a couple of bets for tonight.
Harltepool to beat Kings Lynn and Stockport to beat Barnet 2pts double @ 1.19/1 with William Hill
Maidenhead to beat Torquay 1pt @ 5/2 with William Hill

Date
Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
13/03/2021
Sassuolo
Hellas Verona
43.3%
25.4%
31.3%
22.9%
2.64
2.65
5.85
5.68
11.53
13/03/2021
Benevento
Fiorentina
27.2%
28.8%
44.0%
25.0%
2.12
2.31
3.85
6.09
9.94
13/03/2021
Genoa
Udinese
27.7%
31.7%
40.6%
25.0%
1.84
2.13
3.63
4.81
8.45
14/03/2021
Bologna
Sampdoria
36.8%
24.7%
38.5%
20.9%
2.82
2.77
5.66
6.10
11.76
14/03/2021
Torino
Internazionale
9.2%
15.4%
75.4%
23.4%
3.14
2.98
3.31
6.18
9.49
14/03/2021
Parma
Roma
12.9%
17.6%
69.5%
23.9%
3.16
2.99
2.99
5.70
8.68
14/03/2021
Cagliari
Juventus
9.8%
17.6%
72.6%
25.4%
2.79
2.75
4.73
7.33
12.06
14/03/2021
Milan
Napoli
37.0%
23.6%
39.4%
20.6%
3.03
2.91
4.68
6.00
10.68
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
 
Sassuolo dnb @1.88 – hosts had superb last season and didn’t start this one badly either, but their form deteriorated in recent months, performances were really below par and injury situation didn’t help. It is better now, and we can expect this offensive side to pick up more points in remaining games, perhaps remind us what they looked like for most of last season. Verona are well organized side, always difficult to play against, but at current prices I’m happy to go against them. In case of low scoring first half, over1.25 at 1.95ish mark could be worth a shot – current db price for overs is not tempting, and huge market move b4 kick off is unlikely; but both these teams are basically safe from relegation (even though in theory they should still be careful) and we can expect gpg in their games to go up, this especially goes for Sassuolo (who on first sight have ‘high’ 3.2 gpg average this season, but just 14 of 25 games went over 2.5 line).
Napoli dnb @2.02 in big evening game tomorrow, very important for both sides, who seem to be getting back on track  after recent slumps. Still, for Milan this game is sandwiched between big euro games vs ManU, it’s definitely distraction especially now after excellent result and overall display in first leg. Much more was expected from Napoli this season, they should’ve been fighting for title, but quite a few things went wrong, not only problems with injuries or some questionable coaching decisions, there was clearly some bad luck factor present as well – before this game Napoli are leading the league in shots on target differential, and are second in total shots differential, with only Atalanta better. They will be fresher of the two here, motivation is not in doubt, quality difference with full squads maybe on Milan’s side, but just maybe – and in current circumstances with Milan’s heavy schedule and more problems on injury front, it’s actually on Napoli’s side.
Probaby some more comments later or tomorrow, cheers

Hands up I made a mistake by over complicating the Catterick race on Wednesday. I should have been more trusting on Cousin Pascal's Leicester 2nd as he was on odds on shot on that form. What was a bit frustrating was his trainer went on the pointing form not long before the race to explain the reason why he disappointed at Alnwick was that he travelled to the track poorly and had suffered a long journey. Once you had a reason for that disappointment it was easier to want to back him on Wednesday. He duly bolted up whilst the two I put up ran poorly. King Of The Clothe has run well enough in 2nd although he strikes me as a horse that will stick to pointing once it starts again at the end of the month. Dr Kananga was really well backed at big odds and ran with credit before tiring and finishing 3rd. The form clearly isn't strong, but the winner had any amount in hand.
Tango De Juilley heads the betting for the 2m contest at Leicester this afternoon and whilst you will be worried that last weeks effort might have left a mark given he's a 13yo who hadn't run for 4 years, his form is miles clear of anything else in the race. It was a superb effort to push Cat Tiger so close last week and he will be looking to qualify for Aintree here only having to finish in the 1st 4 to do so. 2m in testing ground shouldn't be an issue and he ought to be hard to beat.
Dale Peters has already landed 1 hunter chase with a newcomer from Ireland this season and he has another one here who has been running in points over there early in the season. He was running well enough in opens having looked on the downgrade before then. This trip ought to be fine and he has joined a good trainer.
Clondaw Westie has his conditions for the first time this this season as he loves the mud as he showed when winning at Ffos Las a year ago. I said before his run at Musselburgh that it seemed a strange one that connections were running him over 3m3f as he didn't look like he would stay and so it turned out. He now drops right back in trip to 2m and he ought to be capable of showing better than he did against Porlock Bay at Kimble on quick ground and last time.
Killiney Court is one of those runners that will benefit from being ridden by a pro jockey from the one who was riding him in points. The other key with him is he clearly doesn't stay 3m. This trip looks ideal for him based on his rules form in Ireland so it's easy to think we will see an improvement on his pointing form. He has been a drifter this morning.
Simon Cross runs two who have both been off for a long time. Matorico has been off for 1082 days and Oliver's Hill 432 days. Both have the back class to run well in this, but it's hard to think either will be up to that and the latter always wanted good ground.
An Scairp has seen plenty of money at big prices and I can sort of understand it as the 2nd to Southfield Theatre at Higham a year ago would give him a place chance. The ground looks to be an issue though and I'm not sure we have seen enough in his two hunter chase efforts including at Ludlow last time. 
I wrote most of the above last night and this paragraph was where I discussed Argot's chances and he was the one horse in the race I thought was over priced. Annoyingly he is now a non-runner.
Tango De Juilley is the right price and he ought to win so there doesn't really seem to be any value in trying to take him on. There is a bit of guesswork needed with the next 3 in the betting with Clondaw Westie needing the drop in trip and the return to heavy ground to to work, Peacocks Secret you are mainly relying on the trainer and Killiney Court you are relying on the jockey switch and the drop in trip. I don't exactly feel strongly on any of them and can understand why at the time of writing they are around the same price. I was going to put up a bet on Argot, but now he is a non-runner I am not currently recommending a bet on the race. I will keep an eye on the markets and see if any opportunity arises and will update the thread if there is.

A great start to the month on Tuesday with both tips winning. Hopefully we can get some more Cheltenham money in the bank on Saturday where I have 2 singles and a treble.
Bromley v Barnet
Not surprisingly Tim Flowers has done a runner from Barnet and he is probably wishing he never even bothered taking the job in the first place. The club is in a right mess and they are so poor at the back whilst they struggle to score goals. Bromley have the top scorer in the league  in Michael Cheek and he is surely going to get chances to add to his tally here. The -1 handicap is available at 11/10 which looks appealing again.
Halifax v Solihull
It wouldn't be a big surprise if Flowers ends up back at his former club as they have also lost their manager this week after a 5-0 drubbing against Stockport. It is 1 win in 10 league games for the away side and the home side were good against Notts County on Tuesday and that continued their good form. As I think I mentioned in Tuesday's preview it is staggering they lost to Barnet the other week. They look a cracking price to pick up another 3 points here and I reckon they go off odds on.
Treble
Bromley go in the bet as they really should heap more misery on Barnet. I like Hartlepool's chances of increasing their winning run at home against an Eastleigh side who have lost their last two. Finally Chesterfield can carry on with their impressive form under my favourite man in football James Rowe. They travel to a Maidenhead side who seem to have gone off the boil. The treble pays 4.7/1 with William Hill.
Bromley 2pts -1 @ 11/10 with Bet365
Halifax 3pts @ 7/5 with William Hill
Bromley/Hartlepool/Chesterfield 1pt treble @ 4.7/1 with William Hill

My initial thoughts before having a good look at this race was that I was pretty confident that Cousin Pascal was going to take all the beating. The 2nd to Chameron at Leicester 3 weeks ago is head and shoulders above what anything else has achieved in this race and if he repeats that then chances are he wins. The problem though is that the Leicester run was way above anything he had done before. The handicapper put him up 18lbs for it which sums things up. The time of the race was 17 seconds quicker than the other division which is obviously a good thing. Chameron's rider did say after the race though that he hated the ground so he has probably under performed and the 3rd home isn't a strong stayer. On his previous start he was only 3rd at Alnwick and had Mr Pepperpot 10L in front of him and he carried 3lbs less. I think ultimately he's price is no value because all you have to go on is one piece of form which has suddenly appeared almost from nowhere. It looks like it is going to be wet today so I suspect the ground will head towards his liking, but his stamina isn't fully confirmed as there are mixed messages in his form and the Leicester race was 2m6f.
King Of The Clothe comes from the Wincanton contest which is working out pretty horribly so far. He was 5th beaten 40L by Sametegal, but he needed his first run of last season when he was 5th behind Shantou Flyer at Larkhill so there is reason to think he will improve for the run. The head 2nd to Duhallow Tornado a couple of runs later was a good effort. All his runs had been on now worse than good to soft prior to the Wincanton run so there would still be a doubt about him if there was a lot of rain. His trainer and jockey could hardly be in better form thought right now.
No Limitations was 2nd to Premier Magic in the other division of the Leicester race that Cousin Pascal was 2nd in. As I mention above the difference in times between the two races was huge and that would be a concern. I'm not sure he wants this sort of stamina test either, but he does have place claims.
Rattle The Cage had been off the course for nearly 2 years before his course and distance 4th last month. He was bang in contention at the 2nd last and just got a bit tired which wasn't a surprise. He was beaten less than 6L though and was only just caught for 3rd place. Duhallow Tornado was 2nd and he's won since which is a plus for the form and although I was initially concerned by the fact the finishers were fairly close to each other I do think we can upgrade his run given the long layoff. We know he stays and we know he wont care what the ground is come race time. Granted he doesn't win often, but he certainly has place claims at the very least based on his run last time.
Eco Warrior is the other one in single figures (at the time of writing) and he has a decent win record in points. He did pull up at Alnwick on his seasonal debut, but he might have needed that and it was his first poor run since 2017. Obviously the concern is he's 11 and he could be going backwards, but I have the image of his run at Musselburgh a year ago where he flew home to finish 3rd and get less than 3L behind Virak. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he did something similar here and the jockey change is a plus for me as well.
The only other one worth a mention is Mr Pepperpot purely because on Alnwick form he does have the beating of the favourite here. He didn't run too badly at Wetherby, but he faded badly there and it's never happened for him in 3 hunter chases to date.
So for me we have a 16 runner field but only 5 that I can really see have a chance of winning. If he repeats the Leicester run then I find it hard to see Cousin Pascal getting beat, but for me he's no value given that run stands out like a sore thumb in his form and his stamina isn't guaranteed. King Of The Clothe might not want the rain to come and the form of that Wincanton race does concern me. He certainly wouldn't be a surprise winner, but again his price seems tight enough. Instead I am going to take a couple who we know will stay and wont mind what the weather does. Rattle The Cage ran a huge race over course and distance last time and this looks weaker than that. If he can build on his first run for 2 years then he has a great chance of being in the first 3 at the very least. That image of Eco Warrior flying home at Musselburgh wont leave my head and this will be even more of a stamina test as well as a positive jockey change. I will take those 2 e/w and hope we can get the favourite beat.
Rattle The Cage 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with most bookies
Eco Warrior 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365

With just the one league to bet in at the moment it does mean that sometimes there will be no bets to be had as has happened the last couple of matchdays. There are a couple of bets I like though in tonight's matches.
Barnet v Wrexham
After watching Hartlepool batter Barnet and only score one goal against them and so fail to land the handicap bet it was then annoying to see Yeovil cover it with ease last Tuesday. They didn't play on Saturday, but they continue to look a very poor side. Wrexham had a trip to South London on Saturday in the live BT game against Sutton and both sides basically cancelled each other out in what was a tough watch because of that. Wrexham have had an issue about scoring goals for a few seasons now, but they did put 4 past Wealdstone and although in their other 3 games in their last 4 they have failed to score two of those games were against Sutton and Hartlepool. Barnet are worse than Wealdstone so I reckon they could cover the handicap here and at 11/5 it looks well a bet.
Notts County v Halifax
Having watched County against Kings Lynn and Chesterfield in recent weeks they really don't look anything special and the fact they couldn't even beat a weakened Kings Lynn last Tuesday night said plenty about where they are at right now. It's amazing to think they could still win the league because they don't look a team who should be good enough to at the moment. I think it is worth back Halifax here as after losing to Maidenhead and Barnet they have bounced back well to beat Torquay, get a point against Hartlepool and then beat Wealdstone on Saturday. They were much more dominant than their 2-1 victory suggests and at 3/1 I am happy to play.
Wrexham -1 2pts @ 11/5 with Betfair
Halifax 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
 

A look back at yesterday's action first which was very profitable to continue the good run. Alcala had a pretty simple task in the end with Looking Well not really performing anywhere near his best. Point The Way ran a lot better when pulling up behind the winner last time, but it's pretty weak form really.
Captain Buck's was very much on a going day as he always looked the winner. I think this was the better of the two performances at Musselburgh. It was a shame to see Absainte come down because she was going to finish 2nd and it would have meant that every bet would have been a winner. She deserves to win one of these because she has bumped into some useful rivals so far in hunter chases and this was probably a personal best. Dark Mahler was well backed and landed e/w money for coming 2nd and was obviously a step up on what he had shown so far this season. Six A Side never really threatened and he came 3rd, whilst Bletchley Castle made it a strong pace, but had nothing left after 4 out.
What a ride by Bryony Frost on Caid Du Berlais at Wincanton. I think everyone probably expected Dashing Perk to make the running, but Bryony made sure that he didn't get the chance to by being very aggressive early on. As we have seen over the years Bryony is very good from the front and when you know your horse stays a bit further than this she knew she was likely to get away with it. He put in some great leaps on the way round and he never looked like getting beat. He has been entered at Cheltenham, but after his last two efforts in the race that did surprise me. Clearly he can be a player at Punchestown though and surely his campaign should be based around that. Golden Tobouggan landed the e/w support that had happened the night before and to be fair it was a hell of an effort and a big step up from his Maisemore win. He can surely win a hunter chase after this effort. Dashing Perk somehow ended up going off favourite in the end and he's run a solid race in 3rd. If he finds a race where he can get to the front then I am sure he will be winning.
Onto today's race and it is one of the more competitive ones we have had so far this season. The important thing though is I want to be against the front two in the market. We all know that Nicholls can get one ready after a lay off so the fact Copain De Classe has been off for 2 years isn't a concern, but the trip has to be a big one. He's never been anywhere near this far before and it isn't even as if he was really good before. His last win came over 2m2f at Kempton in October 2018 off 130 and he is currently off 127. To me if Nicholls thought he was well handicapped he would have gone down that route and there are some useful horses in this. I'm not saying he can't win, but he is a shocking price all things considered.
Another horse who is a shocking price is Maitree Express. How on earth a maiden winner is shorter than hunter chase and open winners I don't know. The horse who beat him at Kimble was 3rd next time and although he finally broke his maiden at Larkhill in December chances are it wasn't a strong race and certainly nothing like this. I can't have him at all and is clearly priced up by the fact he is in the Waley-Cohen colours.
Dieu Vivant won this race last year although he didn't really have much to beat in the end with the Evs money favourite unseating and the 6/4 2nd in disappointing. He did run well in a handicap here last week when finishing 2nd off 124 and that brings him right into this. The concern I have is that anytime he has been on ground quicker than soft he has been a big disappointment. That is enough for me to pass him over, but again he could easily win this.
Miss Seagreen ran well behind Hazel Hill in the opening hunter chase of the season and that was on the back of beating Captain Bucks at Larkhill. She made a bad mistake at the water last time and that didn't help her cause. Also the ground was a massive worry about her that day so the fact she will have quicker ground here should be a big plus. She is a big player for me.
Diamond King won a bad hunter chase at Worcester in May 2019 and was well beaten in his only start last season at Cocklebarrow. I find it hard to see him being good enough to win this even though the jockey change is a big plus.
Master Dancer has won on the flat, over hurdles and in a point, but this is his first try over rules fences. He had decent enough form over hurdles and his two point runs were solid last season. First of all Silsol beat him and then he won a novice riders race. I'd be a bit surprised if he was good enough to win this, but I can see him running well enough.
Trio For Rio had become a bit disappointing for Warren Greatrex, but on his first pointing start for his new trainer he ran really well to finish a close 3rd to Salvatore at Larkhill in December. That race was won in a quicker time than Miss Seagreen's race on the same card and they carried 21lbs more than she did. That run makes him a big player for me here.
Fishy Story has won 9 of his 19 point starts, but I would be a bit surprised if he was up to this. One who I do think is over priced though is Garde Ville. Granted there is a concern that he will bounce, but as I wrote at the time I thought he ran a really promising race against Bob And Co at Haydock. There is every chance he blew up in what was obviously a very strong contest, but he would have finished a creditable 4th if allowed to complete the race. The last couple of seasons he has been in action (he missed 2020) he has come on massively for his seasonal return so that also bodes well. 
Given I think the front two in the betting are there to be taken on with I am going to put up 3 against them. First of all Miss Seagreen will surely go close on this better ground as she should be able to build on the course and distance run from last time. I think Garde Ville is the most over priced horse in the race and hopefully he doesn't bounce as I think he is capable of hitting the frame here. I am also backing Time For Rio as his Larkhill run makes him a player and he also looks over priced to me.
Miss Seagreen 1.5pts @ 7/2 with most bookies
Garde Ville 0.75pts e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill
Time For Rio 0.5pts e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill
NB this was written last night to be posted this morning so it was written before the Nicholls horse came out.

Great stuff today @Darran , well done mate. It was close to being even better, thanks once again.

Never for one second did I think BOG would be needed to get a bigger price on Fumet D'oudairies, indeed I thought he would go off odds on. So for him to return 5/2 was staggering. It was a really impressive performance and although the bare form isn't strong, the time was good and you could see him as a possible Cheltenham contender next season as there should be more to come. I'm Wiser Now was 2nd again and I will keep saying that he will always find something to beat him no matter what the opposition. There were two big surprises in the race. The first was Barrack Hill finishing 3rd. Hard to know if we should take it on face value or not, but not sure I would be in a rush to back him. The 2nd surprise was the massive gamble on The Triple Pillar which never looked like landing. It was a strange gamble and to be fair he did well to finish 4th as he was really struggling a one stage. Captain McGinley got tired after helping make the running and the Wincanton race continues to work out poorly. Rebel Dawn Rising finished last after also being at the front and he will need to come on a lot for the run.
I put in the preview that Cat Tiger would need another run to qualify for Aintree, but it seems his last win in France will actually count towards qualification and he put in a really good performance here. His owner will be back aboard at Aintree, but he looks an uncomplicated ride and Maxwell will have a strong chance of completing a Cheltenham/Aintree double as an owner. Fair play to Venetia Williams for the training performance to get Tango De Juilley to put in the performance he did and I suspect he would have won at Kelso had he not unseated at the 1st based on this effort. He will need another run to qualify for Aintree. Killaro Boy stumbled very badly after 5 out and that didn't help him although hard to think he still wouldn't have finished 3rd. Dr Des was really well backed and he well as well as could have been expected given the 3 ahead of him in the betting all ran up to form. It was another boost to the Warwick form though and he will find easier races than this. He will continue to be on my radar.
3 hunter chases today with two at Musselburgh and one at Wincanton. The 3.35 at Musselburgh looks a 2 horse race between Alcala and Looking Well. It is hard to see Federici closing the gap on Alcala so I don't fancy him. Alcala was outstayed by Salvatore in the Scottish Foxhunter, but he was given a very attacking ride that day and I suspect Cobden won't be quite so bold on him. He was also beaten by a progressive horse who has been entered at Cheltenham so it wasn't a bad performance by any means.
There are no stamina doubts about Looking Well although jumping isn't always foot perfect. His last win was 2 years ago off 133 at Doncaster. He ran in the Grimthorpe after that although he fell at the last when in 2nd. He wasn't seen until last November when running a sound enough race at Kelso over hurdles. He then ran in a race at Market Rasen which he had no chance in.
I think on balance the prices are right and I do think Alcala is the most likely winner of the race. I think he is the better horse and whilst he isn't the strongest of stayers the ground is better here and I don't think it will be as big a stamina test as the race last month was.
I think the 4.35 is all about if Captain Buck's shows he's form or not. He clearly has his quirks, but he looked good when winning at Larkhill over 2m4f a year ago and I put him up when he went back into handicap company for Paul Nicholls at Stratford in July. He won there and I thought Harry Cobden gave him a good ride. He then finished a close 3rd to Seddon at Cartmel before not going a yard at Newton Abbot. He went back pointing again in December when 3rd to Miss Seagreen at Larkhill when ridden by an inexperienced rider and he was never really put in the race until it was too late. He certainly sets the standard.
Six A Side has stuck to pointing since he was 3rd at Cheltenham in May 2017 and he won his only other hunter chase at Kelso the year before. Both runs saw him make mistakes and he isn't exactly foot perfect in points either. He has won his last 4, but he's 13 now and hasn't run for a year. The form of those wins isn't as strong as the favourites and it is hard to see how he beats an on form Captain Buck's.
Absainte is a likeable mare at the right level and she ran well enough to finish 2nd to Wishing And Hoping a year ago at Catterick. I think this sort of trip will suit her better especially as she likes to be handy. She usually runs her race and should do again, but I'm not sure she can beat the favourite.
Bletchley Castle also likes to be at the front end in his races and he should have his ideal conditions here. He was running well at Warwick when he was last seen and back in a hunter chase I can also see him going well.
Dark Mahler is the other one of note and he should be better on this better ground than he has been able to show in his two hunter chases so far this season. Even so on a line through Miss Seagreen he has got a fair bit of ground to make up on the favourite. 
If Captain Buck's runs his race then he wins as on form he is the best horse in the race. I do think we have the wrong 2nd favourite though so there is some value a bit further down the market and I can see Absainte enjoying this test and could be the one to finish 2nd to him.
So how to play the two races. I am going to double up the two favourites to start with. I think Absainte is worth an e/w saver and I will also have a small bet on the forecast as well.
Alcala/Captain Buck's 2pts double @ 6/4 with BetVictor
Abasinte 0.5pts e/w @ 15/2 with Bet365
Captain Buck's to beat Absainte f/c 0.5pts
In between the 2 Musselburgh races we have the 3.45 at Wincanton which looks a good contest. Regular followers will know I am a big fan of Caid Du Berlais having put him up in the last two Foxhunters (pulled up both times) as well as putting him up for both his superb victories at Punchestown. Both wins in Ireland were ultra impressive and I would imagine a hat-trick bid will be the target this season. He is 12 now, but he has run well fresh in points in the past so there is no reason to think he won't perform. The slight question mark would be the drop in trip, but he has plenty of speed so it might not be an issue.
Dashing Perk is an interesting hunter chase newcomer as he ran well in a couple of Aintree handicaps in November and December. Both those efforts would see him have a good chance here. He was pulled up last time at Doncaster, but he finished lame and that run can be easily overlooked for me. This trip is his best one as well.
Capitaine probably didn't see 3m out at Larkhill in his first point in December and it was also his first run for 13 months. He was running OK over hurdles when last seen under rules, but he's never really found a great deal under pressure and I would be a bit surprised if he bit the current front two in the betting.
The horse with the highest handicap rating in the race is Conrad Hastings who has a mark of 140. He won a Kilbeggan handicap off that mark 3 starts ago over this trip although that was in June 2019 and his last run was August that year. First run with new connections and whilst I wouldn't rule him out he will have to be at the top of his game to win this.
I know it doesn't take much money to shorten one up the night before at big prices, but even so the move on Golden Tobouggan was pretty big and surprising. His best runs were his 3 2nds in the 2019 season as he finished 2nd to Virak, Haymount and Caryto Des Brosses all 3 good horses. He missed last season and then won in October at Maisemore beating Silent Man by 1/2L. Now that won has won 2 handicaps since, but both from lowly marks so he is going to have to improve massively on that to play a part here. 33s was possibly too big, but unless someone knows something I don't then he makes little appeal at his current price.
Conrad Hastings is the unknown and it wouldn't surprise if he did win. I am fully expecting Dashing Perk to put his Doncaster effort behind him and he will surely make a bold bid from the front, but I have to stick with Caid Du Berlais here. This looks a good starting place for him and he can have the class to peg back Dashing Perk to give his trainer the first part of a possible across the card double.
Caid Du Berlais 1pt @ 5/4 with Bet365
Finally on a busy day I have to have something on Apple's Queen in the 1.00 at Wincanton. She is potentially very well handicapped on her pointing form. She had lost her way a bit last season, but bounced back in style at Larkhill in December where she clocked a faster winning time than Miss Seagreen carrying 21lbs more than she did. She would have a chance in an average hunter chase and for the first time today she gets her ground under rules. Her two hunter chase runs were both on soft ground and then at Exeter last time in her first handicap she ran well enough on heavy ground. On much quicker ground this afternoon she has to be backed at a double figure price in what is a pretty weak contest.
Apple's Queen @ 22/1 with Bet365

Mate, I was necking pints of home and away ELO ratings on Friday night. Didn't know my arse from my head come Saturday afternoon! I'll tell you what, @Tiffy, because I love you and respect you so much I'll bet against Brighton this weekend... even if I do think they could sneak something against a weakened and stuttering Leicester! 

Thanks mate, and yeah you are right, we have to judge everything in context. I'm happy with the progress under Potter. If they continue that way then results will pick up. You can't continue to play that way and lose every week. 
And I do love your posts, always a fair assessment, with a hint of dry humour. 
I'm just hoping @StevieDay1983 finally gets  a Brighton review right and they can get a win for him! 

Sometimes you get these weird anomalies in football. Brighton XG is very good but they don't score the goals their play deserves. It may have become a psychological issue at the moment. Don't loose heart though mate, Brighton can still survive, they've proved capable of putting winning runs together in recent weeks. I remember the days when you were scrapping with Hull City to stay in the football league! Things are looking much better for the seaweeds these days. Battling it out with the mighty Palace amongst the elite of world football. Let's face it, we're living the dream compared to the days of Goldberg and Goldstone.
For years Burnley had a weird situation going with XG against, opponents would create loads of chances against Burnley but not convert many. At the start of every EPL season people would claim that this would be the year Burnley get relegated due to their appauling XG against record. Apparently what was happening in reality is that Burnley would be adept at blocking shots to each side of their goal which forced opponents to shoot centrally which allowed Pope or Heaton to deal with the shot relatively easily. So Burnley would be conceeding lots of 'dangerous' shots but in reality the keepers were usually in a good position to deal with them.
On a side note, this whole Lee Mason situation is hilarious when you take into account Espirito Santo's comments about him a few weeks back. My favourite quotes include:
"The referee (Mason) doesn't have quality to whistle a game on a premier league"
"The players get nervous, too much voices, he whistles by the voices"
"He doesn't have quality to whistle the game"
"I hope he doesn't whistle a game of ours again"
PS
Glad you are enjoying Peru but please leave Roy out of this. It would be better if the junta got Mamadou Sakho off the payroll by persuading him to play for Sporting Cristal or one of the other Peruvian giants. Many thanks.

Before I get to the two hunter chases at Leicester today I will have a quick look back at Fontwell on Sunday. It was a very good performance from The Galloping Bear who was well backed late on. I didn't think he would be up to beating Sametegal, but in the end I think he just stayed better than the favourite. The winner wasn't always foot perfect, but he looks a really strong stayer and it would be interesting to see where the go with him. The John Corbet Cup at Stratford could be an option for him. Sametegal has qualified for Cheltenham, but it seems like he will be going to Aintree now which was the original plan. He clearly didn't see the trip out and it has to put a big doubt on the Wincanton form in reference to Porlock Bay's chances at Cheltenham with the 3rd also beaten last week. Sonneofpresenting landed the e/w money and obviously in the end it would have been more profitable to have backed him in the normal market, but profit is profit. I thought at one stage he was going to drop backwards as Tanit River took up the running with a circuit to go, but he kept going for 3rd. I'm not sure he will be up to winning a hunter chase though and the same goes for Kashmir Peak. Speaking of Tanit River he ran a good race until he unseated at 2 out. He probably would have been 3rd, but it was a step up on his pointing form and he might be able to build on this. 
At Hereford it was good to see Tinkers Hill Tommy land the bonus bet with ease and although it was a weak contest he is clearly well handicapped.
Not sure why Leicester have decided to move the big race to the last race on the card, but first of all we have the maiden hunter chase at 4.10 so I will deal with that first. Fumet D'oudairies is the favourite and he looked a very promising horse last season when winning 4/4 in points. The times were decent as well and not many horses go through the grades like he does. In his last race a year ago he beat Getting Closer in an Intermediate and that one finished 2nd at Fakenham behind this ones stablemate so there is some depth to his form. Having watched the race he looked value for more than the 2L it was at the line. 2 of his wins were at Horseheath which I think is a good jumping test for a horse and his other two wins were at Cottenham which is a speed test so I don't have any concern about him over this trip (his maiden win was over 2m4f as well) and hopefully his jumping will be up to this test.
Captain McGinley has been well backed and I can certainly see why from an e/w point of view. We know his trainer is in red hot form and he showed up well for a long way at Wincanton which would suggest he wants the drop down in trip, but the rest of his form wouldn't really back that up especially his 2nd to Latenightpass at Cheltenham. Also as I mention above that Wincanton form has had all sorts of holes placed in it. The winner was beaten at Fontwell, the 3rd was stuffed at Doncaster and the 6th somehow managed to finish 3rd at Wetherby having been tailed off last week. He only beat Teeton Surprise by 5L although he did try to win the race which might have left him with nothing left late on. It was also his first run for over a year so you could possibly upgrade the performance, but the worth of the form concerns me.
I'm Wiser Now not surprisingly placed here last time as that is what he is good at. As I said in the preview and in the review he looks just the type of horse who will find something to beat him whatever grade his running in. No doubt he will run his race again, but hard to see him winning.
The Triple Pillar won a maiden point at Garthorpe a couple of years ago, but failed to finish in two Restricted's the following season. He then went under rules at the back end of last year and did run well in a novice hurdle at Warwick in September. After that though it wasn't so good and a mark off 112 looks on the high side. Even if it wasn't I think he would need to run to a higher mark than that to win.
Rebel Dawn Rising has only had 4 starts in his life and he won on the 3rd of them which was his debut for David Kemp. That was his only run in 2019 and he ran once last season when 2nd to Getting Closer in a slower time than the favourite win in on the same Horseheath card. I find it hard to believe that his trainer would run him in this if points were able to run at the moment and although he could go well he might need more experience before he is capable of winning a hunter chase. He has been the one for money this morning.
There has been money for Where Now at a big price, but given he is rated 87 I find it hard to think that connections wouldn't run him in a handicap if they thought he was capable of winning something like this. 
I think the race is between Captain McGinley and Fumet D'Oudairies and I am siding with the favourite as he looks to be very progressive and his yard can get one ready first time out as they have already proven this season. At the price he currently is though I will have a saver bet on Captain McGinley as we cover losses if he does happen to win which given I don't fancy anything else in the race seems sensible.
Fumet 'Oudairies 2pts @ 15/8 with BetVictor
Captain McGinley 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365
The 4.40 is one of the richer hunter chases on the calendar, but I am a bit disappointed by the quality of the field given the money on offer. No doubting the class of the favourite Cat Tiger though and he does look like he will be very hard to beat. He hasn't been seen over fences in Britain, but he landed a Grade 3 over fences at Auteuil under his owner on 2018 and was a close 4th in a Grade 1 there as well. Both those came over today's trip and he looked promising over hurdles last season when starting life out for Paul Nicholls. Given his French form you would think he ought to be even better over fences and he has been given a wind op in the summer. I'm guessing he will be aimed at Aintree although he would need to run again before March 22nd to do qualify and finish in the first 4 on both occasions.
Killaro Boy was a very impressive winner of a hunter chase at Warwick in May 2019 on his first start for Henry Oliver and then he was beaten a nose in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter that summer. After that he finished 2nd at Aintree in October the same year before finishing 8th in the Grand Sefton. He's not been seen since although obviously he can win off a long lay off. Like Cat Tiger though you would be thinking he could be seen at Aintree next month and he might find it hard to beat Cat Tiger here.
Tango De Juilley unseated at the 1st at Kelso after being off the track for nearly 4 years which was a shame. He was quite well backed before the off though so connections must have been expecting something decent. Like that day though it is hard to know what to expect and if Cat Tiger is at his best it is hard to see him beating him.
Straidnahanna was all about stamina when he was trained by Sue Smith and won the North Yorkshire National at Catterick in 2017. He was last seen running in Irish points and did win the last of his 5 runs over there. Back here for new connections and I would imagine this will be a sharp enough test and I couldn't see him being good enough anyway.
Another regional National winner is Henri Parry Morgan who landed the West Wales one at Ffos Las in 2018, but he was pretty poor after that and again hard to think he will have the speed for this.
Wes Hardin is on a hattrick after two pointing wins back in 2018 and it will be a pretty big surprise if he landed it after being off the track for 1009 days! They were fair efforts, but a fair way below the front two's form.
As much as I don't think he can win I reckon Dr Des could outrun his odds. He's never won a race over fences, but still has a rating off 120 and given how many horses pulled up at Warwick I thought he did well to finish especially as he jumped out to his right. Going this way round will help on the jumping front and it wouldn't surprise me if he was able to finish 3rd or 4th.
I think it is a hard race to get an angle on and win or lose I won't include this bet on the figures as only Bet365 offer the market but I am going to have a small bet on Dr Des e/w in the betting without the front two market.
Dr Des 0.5pts e/w in the betting without the front two market @ 11/2 with Bet365

Hi,  there is no new topic on PL forum for this round (not sure if we are allowed to open these, as they contain some standard odds-rtgs data), so with previous post in this topic previewing game for tomorrow, I will also leave my Italy Serie B comments for tomorrow here, please if moderator can later put the post to appropriate midweek thread (if someone opens it)...
Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
Frosinone
Monza
20.4%
35.9%
43.7%
27.2%
1.90
2.08
4.67
5.36
10.03
Cittadella
Pescara
57.6%
29.1%
13.3%
26.7%
2.49
2.47
6.44
3.60
10.04
Ascoli
Pisa
31.1%
32.2%
36.7%
22.6%
2.53
2.49
4.99
4.29
9.28
Lecce
Virtus Entella
59.7%
26.2%
14.1%
24.4%
3.05
2.83
5.28
3.75
9.03
Vicenza Virtus
Cremonese
34.9%
33.8%
31.3%
22.1%
2.31
2.35
4.62
4.55
9.16
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
Monza -1/4 @2.11 is a bet, although tbh I was hoping for a bit better price, and it may improve later on, but this is already enough to recommend it. Monza are a serious promotion contender this season, no real weak spots in this side, though their form is not so good, with just 3 wins in last 9 games, and not undeservedly so, as performances dropped a bit recently as well, highlighted with saturday's 0-0 at home v fellow promotion hopefuls Cittadella, in a game where Monza were outplayed in general and probably should be happy with a point in the end. Two of their biggest stars Boateng and Balotelli are out for this one, but while the former is not irrelevant, Mario's absence should make no difference at all. Youngster Pirola who impressed in last two games will also sit this one out, but except for full 90 mins of playtime in those last 2 games he has just 35 more minutes this season. After 25 games, Monza's +2.20 shtgt differential is the best in the league, while their +4.05 total shots diff is 4th best, there is really little doubt this side is placed in current standings where they should be - and pretty much same can be said for mid-placed Frosinone, who should not flirt with relegation but also should have nothing to do with promotion race... though with playoff system in place, you never know. If Monza's form has dropped a bit in last several weeks, Frosinone's has pretty much plummeted, with just 1 single win in last 13 games, and it was a lucky one, 3-2 away win against the run of play at bottom-placed Entella. Hosts have more quality on paper than what they are showing on field, there are some high profile names for Serie B here, with several of them playing for Frosi in Serie A two seasons ago; and vast majority from last season's playoff run are also here... but this is simply not a good enough 'team', it's the second season in a row they seem to be missing something, they were lucky to get into playoffs last season in first place, then proceeded to almost win it, as they had Spezia on the ropes in that last game, but it wasn't to be. While I was hoping for dnb 180 or -1/4 220+, current price is still high enough as some min to bet would be in range of 203 -1/4.
Lecce-Entella over 2.5 @1.93 is also a bet, though admittedly this line feels too high for Serie B; but first, it is chaotic Lecce who are involved, this is the team whose games (deservedly) had default TG line set to 3.0 this season as well; and on the other side it is Entella, who are leaking goals but also playing with more ambition in recent weeks, their current table position won't be helped with many draws, though they would certainly be happy with one tomorrow. Expected this to be set at 2.75 with overs priced around evens, so really can't resist this, it's basically 17-18 pts from current market price (o2.5 @1.93 / o2.75 @2.19). Lecce won reverse fixture 5-1, can't expect anything similar this time around, but both teams to score and then some more is realistic, keeping clean sheets is not their strength, Entella haven't done so in last 8, crazy Lecce in last 7 (or in 21 of last 23 if you like that more).
While model likes Pisa for tomorrow, this is the game I would disagree with numbers, as Ascoli are one of the most improved sides in last month, their results improved but their performances merited even more, in fact in last 5 games their +6 shots differential and +3.2 shtgt diff are respectively 2nd best and best in the league, this was enough for just 1-2-2 record, and this run included games against Lecce, Salernitana, Pordenone and Frosinone, who are all either in playoff position or close, with only Reggiana in lower part of table (game that Ascoli lost 0-1, but had man disadvantage for 50+ mins and outshot hosts 20-9, on tgt 9-2); prior to this run they beat Brescia 2-1 at home winning shot attempts 25-6 (6-2 on tgt) and had a goalless draw in even game v very good Chievo side. Pisa are a tricky oppo to play against, and current price on Ascoli (208 -1/4) doesn't attract me enough, but in case of some huge move on visitors tomorrow, dnb 187ish on hosts would do it for anti-model bet. All of Pisa's 12 away games had 2 goals or more in it, model has this one at 2.50ish for TG, in case of price improvement overs could be interesting for bet, my current target is over 2.25 @2.03 (in case of 0-0 or 1 goal first half, rough halftime targets would be over 1 @1.75 or over 1.25 @2.25).
For all 3 mentioned games weather should be fine tomorrow, 10-13^c during games, clear or v little precip, no problems.