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Mindfulness

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  1. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 22nd   
    More profit on Tuesday with Eastleigh winning although Barnet were just edged out on Wednesday night. I have just the one bet for Saturday's action.
    Chesterfield v Dagenham & Redbridge
    I am all over Dagenham here and I can't believe the price. Chesterfield haven't actually played well for a while now and despite Rowe signing numerous players injuries haven't helped on that front. In the last 10 games they have won just 3 times and two of those were against Woking and Kings Lynn so games they should have won comfortably. That should also have been the case last Saturday when they went off around 1/14 to beat Wealdstone and yet they played poorly and could only draw 0-0. They had a lot of the ball, but were ineffective with it and Wealdstone actually had the better chances. Now the one slight concern I have is that performance might give the players a big wake up call and obviously fans will be there which could make a difference, but I think both teams will enjoy playing in front of a crowd given how long its been. Eastleigh's manager on Tuesday spoke about how it was good to keep the home fans quiet. Dagenham are flying at the moment and Daryl McMahon has finally got his team playing consistently after struggling on that front for most of the season. It has probably come too late for the play-offs, but they are still in with a fighting chance and win this then it goes to the final day of the season. They have won all bar one of their last 8 games and that other one was a very creditable 1-1 draw at Stockport. Granted they have played some easy sides in that run, but the wins over Eastleigh and Halifax as well as that Stockport draw prove how well they are going. I watched them against Wealdstone as well and they way they despatched of them was very impressive. Dagenham are playing so much better than their hosts at the moment and hopefully that can continue on Saturday as they are a massive price.
    Dagenham & Redbridge 4pts @ 12/5 with William Hill 
  2. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 18th   
    Bet365 have transferred last night's bet on Barnet to tonight's game so I will record the bet at their 6/1 as Hills have voided their bets. Worth checking to see what has happened to your bet as bookies have different rules. I still make them a bet at Bet365's 9/2. 
  3. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Hunter Chase - 7.55 Huntingdon   
    A quick look back at Aintree's bumper on Friday and it was good to have the winner in Latitude although I have to say I think we got away with one as the 2nd was the best horse in the race. I think either side of the line and Foxinthebox would have won, but thankfully for us Latitude had his nose down where it mattered. To be fair to the winner he looks a promising horse and I can see him building on the promise he has shown so far next season, but he clearly knew his job unlike the 2nd. Foxinthebox had jumped terribly on his debut and then on Friday he was very green, but once the penny dropped he stayed on strongly to only just be denied. He looks a stayer in the making and has clearly got more learning to do, but he is one to keep a close eye in the future. Latenightrumble ran well in 3rd and they were miles clear of the other 3 which is why I think the form could be pretty strong.   Back to hunter chase action this evening with Huntingdon hosting their only one of the season and we have another Maxwell odds on favourite in the shape of Dolphin Square. I tried taking him on at Kelso, but he was much better than Right Of Reply at the line and as much as that one slowed right down I just can't see how Right Of Reply can reverse the form. I think Dolphin Square will improve for a bigger field and a longer trip and I find it hard to see him being beaten.   If there is one to beat him it is likely to be Tullys Touch who hacked up at Fakenham last time. He also goes up against the horse he beat last time as Laser Beam goes here, but again I just don't see the form being reversed. Tullys Touch had loads in hand at the line and he had beaten him at High Easter last month as well. He is probably still progressive and given how easy he won at Fakenham it is hard to know exactly how good he is, but he needs to find a lot for me to beat Dolphin Square. The handicapper gave him a mark of 105 after that win and to be honest that seems fair enough at the moment. I think he can finish 2nd to the favourite as he is open to a bit more improvement than Right Of Reply.   What really interests me though is the betting without the front two market as I like Green Winter. Laser Beam looked very one paced at High Easter and Fakenham behind Tullys Touch so he is opposable. Tangoed ran really well in her only hunter chase to date at Stratford 2 years ago. She was a close 3rd to Earth Leader which was a top effort, but then in December the same year she finished 35L behind him at Larkhill. She wasn't seen again until Kimble in November where she pulled up behind Porlock Bay. She was then off until April where she was a well beaten 7th 6 days before winning at Aldington. It was a big victory, but it was a weak race so I'm not sure she is as good as that Stratford run suggested she could be.   With Spanish Fleet and Babytaggle both looking like they will be outclassed that leaves us with Green Winter. He has only run in two hunter chases despite the fact he is 13 and they were in two renewals of the John Corbett Cup where he pulled up both times. He is a classy pointer though as he has shown over the years. Last year he finished a close 2nd to Shantou Flyer at Larkhill and was then 2nd to Chameron in the Coronation Gold Cup at the same venue. He wasn't seen again until 2 weeks ago when he was an 8L 2nd at Mollington, but the winner that day was landing a hat-trick so the form looks solid to me especially as he pulled well clear of the 3rd. He should come on for that and I think he only has Right Of Reply to beat in this market and I think he has a decent chance of doing so. Annoyingly he has been backed in the outright market so he is now favourite in the betting without the front two market, but I think there is still value in his price.   Dolphin Square to beat Tullys Touch 1pt fc Dolphin Square to beat Green Winter 0.5pts fc Green Winter betting without front 2 1.5pts @ 15/8 with Betfair  
  4. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 18th   
    Another profitable day on Saturday as Yeovil managed to cover the -1 handicap against Kings Lynn. Amazingly Chesterfield who ended up going off around 1/14 managed to only get a point against Wealdstone which let the treble down. I have 2 bets for Tuesday night.
    Aldershot v Eastleigh
    I really don't understand the prices here as I would make Eastleigh clear favourites. Eastleigh now have a great chance of making the play-offs as they have 4 games against sides with nothing to play for and win them all then they will finish at least 7th. Now obviously sides with nothing to play for can be dangerous and although they beat Barnet 3-0 on Saturday the Eastleigh manager admitted after the game that they hadn't played very well and didn't deserve to win 3-0. They had been on a good run of form prior to that though having beaten Sutton and Notts County twice. Indeed they have only lost twice in their last 8 games and they were against Dagenham and Torquay so no disgrace in that. Aldershot on the other hand have only won twice in their last 7 and they were against Wealdstone and Yeovil. They were well beaten by Hartlepool on Saturday as well. The one thing we do have to factor in is fans are back for this game and with it being home fans only maybe that will perk the home side up, but like I say Eastleigh are way over priced for me as I would have them around 5/4.
    Solihull Moors v Barnet
    After I put them up to beat Altrincham a few weeks back Barnet have found it harder to pick up points in their next 5 games, but their fixture list was very tough in that spell. They had to play Sutton, Notts County, Dagenham and Eastleigh which was never going to be easy. Like I say though they did play well on Saturday and they did beat Weymouth in that spell of games. I have mentioned that Solihull have good home form recently, but they haven't really played that well in those games against Weymouth and Woking and I think Barnet will make things very tough for them. Barnet are a completely different side since their new manager came in and with Torquay and Sutton to come I think he will view this as their best possibility to win a game this season. 13/2 is way too high for me as I don't think there is anywhere near that difference in ability. I'd have them around 11/4 myself so the away win is a value play here.
    Eastleigh 2.5pts @ 9/5 with Bet365
    Barnet 1pt @ 13/2 with William Hill 
  5. Thanks
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Point-To-Point bumper - 8.35 Aintree   
    In the end I couldn't make up my mind what to do at Fontwell so I just left the race alone. The rain stayed away for Law Of Gold and he ended up landing a fairly comfortable success at the line. As Dale said after the race though Maxwell set the race up nicely for him on Shantou Flyer as he gave him a good gallop to aim at. My eye kept being drawn to the times on screen and there seemed to be plenty of red furlongs which suggests to me that the favourite was going too fast and he had little left at the end. Dale gave the winner a good ride though because as they jumped the first on the last circuit he realised he needed to wake his mount up and go and challenge Shantou Flyer. My guess is he will be heading to Stratford for their Foxhunter in a couple of weeks and if the ground remains decent then he will have a leading chance. Dundrum Wood wasn't good enough to go with the front two, but I also suspect he wanted the rain to come and in the end he was only just in front of Keltus.
    Tonight Aintree host the 2nd of 3 point-to-point bumpers and I was amazed when Crews Pitch was put in as a 5/4 favourite. This race looks stronger than the Exeter contest he was 2nd in last month so I am happy to pass him over.
    Foxinthebox has become favourite on his first start for Olly Murphy after making his debut at Barbury in December when with Francesca Nimmo. He jumped terribly that day and did as well as he did to get as close as he did. No obstacles will clearly help him based on that and his former yard are well known for producing good young horses. My one concern though is he also got outpaced at Barbury so he might not want a sharp test like this.
    If I Say is next in the betting and she beat Time Bandit on debut at Chaddesley Corbett last month. She came from off the pace, which was quite a strong one unusually for a bumper and hit the front about a furlong out. She then looked green but kept finding to win by just under 2L. I actually think that Time Bandit has a good chance of reversing the form. He helped make the strong pace and crucially he carried 7lbs more than the winner and here they will be off level weights with Darren's claim. We know how good the trainer is as well so that is another plus and I like the way he stayed on once he was past. Granted the winner should come on for the experience, but the price difference is too big for me.
    Latenightfumble goes for the Ellis team and you always have to respect one of theirs, but I get the feeling she is running as she is the only one who qualifies for a bonus linked to the race. She did bolt up at Dingley in April in what is her only start over less than 2m and she doesn't seem to quite stay 3m as she showed again in a restricted at High Easter. That would suggest 2m might suit as well, but having first run 2 years ago she wouldn't have the scope for progress as the others.
    That leaves us with Latitude who I think has a very good chance. He was disappointing in a 2m4f maiden at Chaddesley Corbett in December when a well beaten 3rd although he looked a bit of a non stayer. It could also be that he had a problem given we haven't seen him since. The key piece of form though is his first race in a bumper at Maisemore. He was really impressive that day and the form looks strong. The 12L 2nd has won since and is a horse his trainer thinks a lot off, but another 20L back in 3rd was Rose Above It who landed the Exeter bumper. Based on that at the very least he should be a shorter price than Crews Pitch. Back into a bumper I think we will see a much better performance given what he did on debut and since his trainer took out a rules licence they have done well in bumpers. Out of 13 runners in rules bumpers she has had 2 winners and 4 placed.
    I certainly respect the claims of Foxinthebox and If I Say and if either of those won I wouldn't be shocked, but to me Time Bandit and especially Latitude look over priced.
    Latitude 1pt @ 13/2 with Bet365
    Time Bandit 0.5pts @ 16/1 with Bet365
  6. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 15th   
    The handicap bets lost on Tuesday although the winning acca meant we came out as level on the night. Onto Saturday and I have two handicap bets and a treble.
    Solihull v Woking
    I thought Woking were given way too much credit by the BT Sport pundits on Tuesday night. Yes they worked hard especially in the first half, but 2nd half Sutton were all over them and Woking barely got a look in. The 2nd goal was a long range strike from nothing and Sutton's victory was much more comfortable than the score line suggests. It was always going to be easier for Woking's players to get up for a live game against title contenders and now they travel to Solihull for a game with nothing riding on it. As I pointed out on Tuesday Solihull have been strong at home and they came from a goal behind to win 2-1 against Weymouth. Woking looked ropey from set pieces again on Tuesday night and I fancy Solihull to make up the -1 handicap.
    Yeovil v Kings Lynn
    In their last 10 away games Kings Lynn have conceded at least 2 goals in all bar 2 of those games and in 7 of them it has been 3 or more goals. That sums them up perfectly and Yeovil really ought to add to that figure on Saturday. Granted their last home game on Bank Holiday Monday saw them lose 3-0 to Halifax, but apart from that they have been very good at home and again I think they can cover the -1 handicap.
    Treble
    I am going to add Chesterfield to Solihull and Kings Lynn. They host Wealdstone and you don't really need me to tell you that it really ought to be a home win. The fact that it nearly pays 2/1 with William Hill looks a cracking bet as it really ought to be shorter for them all just to win their games.
    Solihull -1 2.5pts @ 7/5 with Bet365
    Yeovil -1 3pts @ 7/4 with Bet365
    Chesterfield, Solihull and Yeovil 2.5pts treble @ 1.93/1 with William Hill
     
  7. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Hunter Chase - 6.30 Fontwell   
    First of all in years gone by we should have been looking forward to an all hunter chase card at Fontwell this evening, but sadly the course have decided to axe it this year. As sad as it is I am not all that surprised that it was axed as it had looked under threat for a few years. First of all no one went to it after the card moved from Folkestone and Fontwell was basically deserted whereas Folkestone was packed out. Secondly the fields usually cut up pretty badly and clearly ARC want runners for competitive racing to create money. I will always have found memories of the card though from having gone through the card at in the final year it was held at Folkestone in 2012 to having covered the meeting on At The Races for 3 years so it will always hold a spot in my heart. I also think it is a shame we have lost it because it gave horses a chance to win a hunter chase that wouldn't have had a chance otherwise and there are a few whose only hunter chase win did come on the card.
    Anyway we still have one race on the card, but a quick look back at Perth last night first. I was worried when the ground went soft for Magna Sam and my suspicion is he didn't enjoy it although he dropped out at a stage which could suggest there was something ailing him. Refusal was also a spent force a fair way from home. In the end end the winner had little to beat given he was always likely to uphold the form with the 2nd. Pass The Way will need to find a pretty weak race to win again under rules.
    Just the 5 runners for this evening's hunter chase then and another short price David Maxwell favourite in Shantou Flyer. He clearly has the best form in the contest and ought to be pretty hard to beat. Now he didn't have the race won for me at Wincanton when David fell off and Keltus does take him on again, but I thought David gave him a strange ride that day. He kicked him clear of Keltus going down the back for the final time and I don't think he was ridden to the best of his ability. His 3rd in the Kim Muir is way above what any of these can achieve and he deserves his long odds on quotes in my view.
    Law Of Gold is 2nd in the betting and has been backed. He ran really well in last years Foxhunter when 7th although he does have 27L to make up on Shantou Flyer and whilst the weights give him a few lengths in his favour he would have had to improve and the favourite regressed to reverse the form and I'm not sure either of those things have happened. I thought Law Of Gold ran a creditable race on his seasonal return at Doncaster on ground which wouldn't have been ideal, but he then went backwards at Cheltenham as he ran a stinker. He then won a Mixed Open at Garthorpe last month, but wasn't exactly impressive in doing so. His main rival pulled up injured and the form looks pretty weak. The time was the slowest on the card, the 2nd was having its first start for 2 years and the 3rd was stuffed at Cheltenham a couple of weeks ago. His best run of the season was the Doncaster effort and he seems to have gone backwards since. The ground is crucial for him though and if it did stay good, good to firm in places then that would increase his chances. If the rain hits then his chances diminish big time.
    I think Dundrum Wood is better than he was able to show in the match with Royal Chant at Sedgefield last time and this should show him in a better light. His unproven over the trip, but the fact his trainer is running him in this suggests they think it will suit. He will need the forecast rain though as he likes cut in the ground as he showed at Newcastle in December when winning off 117. He was very poor here in February which is a concern, but it looked too bad to be true and he has a chance of finishing 2nd if the rain comes.
    As mentioned above as much as Keltus might have beaten Shantou Flyer anyway at Wincanton I think he was flattered by the way Shantou Flyer was ridden. He then went to Cheltenham and ran with credit before not seeing out the 4m trip. I'm not sure he wants cut in the ground either although he was running well enough on soft ground at Ludlow 4 runs back until falling at 4 out. 
    I feel a bit sorry for Tusa Eire's connections as I would imagine he was being aimed at the race he won on this card 2 years ago only for the race to disappear from the card. He's 15 now and it would be an even bigger shock than when he won 2 years ago if he were to win this.
    It is an interesting little race where a lot depends on what the weather does so at this stage I am not putting a bet up as we could have quick ground, but we could easily have soft ground and that changes things a lot.
  8. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 11th   
    2 out of 2 on Saturday and there was never a moments worry in either bet collecting really. Not surprisingly opposing Weladstone and Woking are the main bets on Tuesday night.
    Sutton v Woking
    For my ante-post bet on Torquay I really hope Sutton drop points here, but it would be one of the biggest shocks of the season if they did. Possibly because the game is live on BT Sport we might see Woking put in a good performance, but it is clear they are pretty hopeless especially in defence. Chesterfield didn't even play well on Saturday and still scored 4 past them. 3 of them came from corners so you would imagine Sutton might get some joy on that front. Sutton were dominant against Weymouth on Saturday and will be disappointed only to have scored twice. Hopefully they can cover the -2 handicap as that does look attractively priced at 5/2.
    Wealdstone v Bromley
    Dagenham had 3 very good chances within the first 4 minutes against Wealdstone on Saturday and they scored 2 of them which pretty much sums up what Wealdstone are like at the moment. It could easily have been more than the 5-0 it ended up being. Bromley ought to have a field day here especially as they need the goals to boost their goal difference which could prove crucial for their play-off chances. Again it is them to cover the -2 handicap.
    Acca
    I don't put accas up that often but Bromley, Sutton and Chesterfield (who host Kings Lynn) all look bankers. I will add Solihull to them who host Weymouth. They have been in very good form at home in recent weeks and didn't play on Saturday which will help considering Weymouth were chasing shadows at Sutton. The 4 fold pays around 5/2 with William Hill.
    Sutton -2 2pts @ 5/2 with Betfair
    Bromley -2 3pts @ 21/10 with Betfair
    Bromley, Sutton, Chesterfield and Solihull 2pts 4 fold @ 5/2 with William Hill
  9. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 8th   
    Another cracking day on bank holiday Monday with 4 winning bets out of 5. I have two bets for Saturday and they pretty much write themselves.
    Wealdstone v Dagenham & Redbridge
    I watched Dagenham's match against Woking and I did get a bit worried in the 2nd half that they might blow it when Woking pulled a goal back, but in the end they added a 3rd and it was a comfortable success. Opposing Wealdstone also paid off on Monday as they lost 4-0 to Stockport. I struggle to see how Dagenham don't cover the -1 handicap yet again here given how many goals they are scoring and how many Wealdstone are conceding. In my view it should be odds on so odds against looks very good.
    Woking v Chesterfield
    Not surprisingly I am taking great pleasure in Chesterfield's drop in form and performances. They looked pretty hopeless last Saturday against Hartlepool especially in the first half where they conceded 3 goals. They followed that up with losing 2-0 to Torquay, but those two games are a world away from facing a Woking side who could hardly be further away from two teams fighting it out for the title. Chesterfield are desperate for the 3 points and they really ought to get them. They should be looking to boost their goal difference as well given how tight it is for the final 3 play-off spots so the -1 handicap makes plenty of appeal here as well.
    Dagenham & Redbridge -1 4pts @ 5/4 with Betfair
    Chesterfield -1 2pts @ 15/8 with Bet365, Betfair and Betfred
  10. Thanks
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Hunter Chase - 4.55 Fakenham   
    I will get round to doing a Cheltenham review at some point this week but we move onto Fakenham this afternoon first and another small field contest.
    Tullys Touch is favourite and I find it hard to see him getting beaten. His only start under rules was over course and distance last year and not surprisingly he couldn't cope with Shantou Flyer, but I think he was probably the 2nd best horse in the race as he paid late on for trying to chase the winner. He won at Ampton in good style following and then made his first start since 9 days ago when winning at High Easter. He traveled really well throughout the race and although he only won by a neck I felt he was value for more than that. The one slight concern is his jumping as he's not always foot perfect, but he is the one horse in the race who wont made if it carries on raining and even at evens he looks a good bet.
    Laser Beam finished 5th in that High Easter contest and strictly speaking with his jockey's claim he should reverse those placings, but as I mention above I think the winner was value for more and given it was his first run in just over a year he should improve for it. Laser Beam had already had a start this season when winning at Higham and he landed a couple of races last season as well. The ground would be a slight concern if it got softer, but my biggest concern with him is the fact he can jump out to his right and if he does that this afternoon he wont get away with it.
    I can't have Sense Of Adventure or Bombay Basil at all so that just leaves Streets Of London and he made it 8 wins from 17 starts in points at Aldington a couple of weeks ago. It was a poor race though and he was stuffed out of sight in a Plumpton handicap chase off 90 in March. His form certainly suggests he wants good or quicker ground as well.
    All in all Tullys Touch rates a very strong selection.
    Tullys Touch 4pts @ 10/11 with Bet365
  11. Like
    Mindfulness got a reaction from Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 3rd   
    Some great calls here @Darran. You know we're running good when we can chuck 5pts at Dagenham and they go and do the business. Thanks once again.
    Torquay get the win at your favourite national league club aswell.
    Everyone get on their Notts County hats for tomorrow.
  12. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 3rd   
    One bet and one winner again on Saturday to continue the good run of form. Usually the season has finished by now, but we still have another month to go with the season having started late. We have a full fixture list on Bank Holiday Monday to look forward to in the National League with Sutton v Notts County live on BT on Tuesday tea time. I have 4 bets for Monday.
    Boreham Wood v Kings Lynn
    I know Boreham Wood love to draw, but the fact they haven't had to play since last Saturday is key for me because Kings Lynn have played two games since then. They only have a small squad and they are feeling the effects of such a busy period. They did draw 0-0 on Saturday, Maidenhead have been leggy in games as well so it is no surprise that was more of a balanced affair. They have been conceding plenty of goals and although Wood haven't scored in 4 games now they do have goals in them and I suspect they will get a few chances to score here. I am going to take them on the -1 at 6/4.
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Woking
    Dagenham have really found their form of late and they are playing really well. They have won their last 4 on the bounce now and compared to earlier in the season they are now scoring goals. They have netted 10 in that run and they will surely fancy their chances of adding a few against a Woking side who are desperate for the season to finish. They have picked up just 1 point in their last 9 games and in their 8 losses they have conceded at least twice in 6 of them. I would make them 1/2 chances so even at a shade of odds on I am happy to play. I am also going to cover the -1 handicap.
    Maidenhead v Wrexham
    As I mentioned earlier Maidenhead continuing to look very tired in games and they could struggle to hold of a Wrexham side who need the points to stay in the play-offs. I think the Welsh side will have too much for their hosts here and I am happy to play at 6/4
    Stockport v Wealdstone
    I don't really need to write too much here as Stockport really should be putting at least 3 or 4 past Wealdstone here. They have been conceding goals for fun and Stockport have been scoring them for fun. Granted they only got 1 on Saturday, but going to Halifax is a very different story from hosting Wealdstone. The -2 handicap looks worthy of a play.
    Boreham Wood -1 2pts @ 6/4 with Betfred
    Dagenham & Redbridge 4pts @ 10//11 with William Hill
    Dagenham & Redbridge -1 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfred
    Wrexham 1pt @ 6/4 with William Hill
    Stockport -2 2pts @ 7/5 with Betfair
  13. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Cheltenham Hunter Chase night and Punchestown Champion Hunter Chase   
    It is great to have Cheltenham's hunter chase night back after a year off last year and there there looks to be some cracking action in store across the 7 races. Over in Ireland we have their big hunter chase of the season at Punchestown where Caid Du Berlais will be looking to land the hat-trick.
    Before I get into the previews just a quick word on the Chepstow race from last Friday. Obviously it was great to get the winner in Right To Reply who drifted out to a great price in the end. He was given an attacking from the front and it worked a treat. Salvatore looked a beaten horse early on as Zac tried to be prominent on him, but he jumped slowly and was never travelling. The fact he finished as close as he did was down to the fact he was passing poor horses more than anything. What I will say though is I suspect he found things happening fast enough on the quick ground and I reckon connections might regret not waiting for Cheltenham and the 4m contest which looks ideal for him.
    Now into the previews as I take a look at every horse running at Prestbury Park later tonight.
    5.00 
    Risk And Roll - Certainly capable of winning this contest as he showed when landing a couple of hunter chases last season at Leicester and Stratford as well as finishing 2nd off 122 in a Huntingdon handicap last month. As I wrote in my preview for Aintree I thought he was capable of running well if his jumping held up, but his jumping didn't hold up and he unseated at the 5th. His jumping has to be a concern again especially dropping down in trip as they are likely to travel quicker and put his jumping issues under more pressure. If he does get round safely though then like I say he can win this.
    Fumet D'oudairies - Having won all 4 points last season he made a great hunter chase debut when beating I'm Wiser Now by 6L at Leicester. That form has obviously worked out well since given he has won twice. He then ran at Dingley earlier in the month when just being beaten by Always Lion which I think was a strong piece of form especially as he had to give the winner 3lbs. Sadly Always Lion suffered a fatal injury on Saturday when running in a point so he had no chance of proving how good he was. The trip is an unknown, but he travelled so well at Leicester over 2m4f that I don't think it will be an issue.
    Magna Sam - Ran a much improved race at Ascot where the small field and better ground saw him able to perform better than he had been able to show in two subsequent runs after winning at Ludlow last January. That was a fortunate win, but it did show what he's capable of. He ran in the Lady Dudley Cup 2 weeks ago and after receiving early reminders he did work his way into the contention before fading badly. As much as he doesn't want 3m2f I also don't think he wants 2m especially as they seem to be holding him up having made the running with him last season.
    Babytaggle - Been off for a year and rated just 75 so would be a surprise winner.
    Creative Inerta - Won a weak hunter chase at Exeter in 2018 and ran as well as could have been hoped behind Monsieur Gibraltar and Risk A Fine the following February. Wasn't seen again until last December when he didn't show a great deal at Barbury. If he ran up to that Wincanton run he'd have place claims here, but that run does stand out a bit and it was 3 years ago now.
    Downbythestrand - Won the 2m contest on Stratford's hunter chase night back in 2019 a race which actually worked out pretty well from a form point of view. He wasn't seen again until this February when he ran a solid enough race at Huntingdon in a handicap. In theory he should have had an even better chance at Southwell a month ago when he looked to have his ideal conditions, but he was well beaten in the end. On the back of that it is hard to fancy him for this.
    Envoye Special - I thought he was given a very strange ride at Kempton as trying to force the pace with Adrien Du Pont didn't seem the wisest move in the world. Even so there is nothing of that one's quality in this and having looked a bit of a bridle horse earlier in the season he went and won well at Kimble on Easter Saturday. Previously this season he had been held up, but the last twice has seen been ridden way more prominently. That seems a good move to me as they were his best efforts of the season so far. Strictly speaking through I'm Wiser Now he shouldn't be beating Fumet D'oudaires, but like I say now he's not coming from miles off the pace he could be better than that Stratford run.
    Jungle Legend - Runs like the drop to 2m will suit, but hard to see him being good enough.
    Namako - Was miles behind Envoye Special at Kimble and I don't see how he reverses that form even allowing for the jockey switch.
    Rafferty - Bolted up in a maiden at Sheriff Hutton on his first run for over 2 years, but hard to see him being good enough here.
    Sam Cavallaro - Arguably they should have named the race after him given he won it in 2015 and 2016, was 2nd in 2017, 3rd in 2018 and then won it again in 2019. Covid got in the way last year and as much as it would be great if the 15yo could get his head in front, he has been very poor in his two runs so far and is hard to fancy.
    Verdict - It is hard to see anything outside the front three in the betting taking this. With Risk And Rolls jumping being a concern and Envoye Special maybe not being the most genuine horse I think Fumet D'Oudairies will get back to winning ways. He looked a very promising horse at Leicester and the drop in trip shouldn't bother him. I make Envoye Special the main danger.
    Fumet D'Oudairies 2pts @ 15/8 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred
    5.35
    Benefaktor - Has done very well since coming to England having won his maiden and restricted last season before finishing a close 2nd to Huntsman Jog at Ampton. That one has won a handicap under rules off 116 since then so the form is strong. He then had a year off and returned at Revesby last month and put in a devastating performance to win by 25L hard held. The 2nd had shown really good form last season as well having finished a 3L 2nd to Fumet d'Oudairies so it wasn't like he beat a load of rubbish. He is likely to make the running and he seems to have plenty left at the finish so is a leading contender.
    Captain McGinley - Ran fairly well at Wincanton behind Sametegal although he was well beaten at the end in 4th and then finished a tired 5th behind Fumet D'Oudairies at Leicester. He did finish 2nd to Latenightpass in this contest in 2019 and clearly if he repeated that then he will have a good chance. Better ground will likely see him in a better light.
    Corbett Court - A good jockey booking, but was well beaten in a restricted on his first run in 2 years a couple of weeks ago so hard to see him being good enough.
    Definite Dilemma - Has been handicap chasing this year running pretty well on the whole including finishing 2nd on a couple of occasions. They were over 2m4f and it did seem like he might do better over slightly longer, but 3m2f has to be a query. He was 2nd at Edgcote 2 weeks ago when a length behind Sir Mangan which is fair form. His BHA rating is 104 and chances are he will have to improve on that to land this.
    Earcomesbob - Only won his maiden because the winner took the wrong course at Chaddesley Corbett in December and it would be surprising if he added to that here.
    Getting Closer - He showed good form last year and then just won his intermediate in December. After that he went to Fakenham and was well beaten by Dubai Quest where he didn't jump that well. He was 2nd to Laser Beam earlier in the month and that form leaves him with something to find.
    Guttural - I thought he ran better than the bare result at Leicester on his debut for new connections when 5th to Tango De Juilley. He travelled quite well into the race and ended up getting tired on bad ground which wouldn't have suited. He then stepped up to 2m4f and found himself outpaced before staying on into 3rd behind Garde Ville. Usually he wouldn't be able to run in this race as it is normally just for Intermediate horses, but this year it has been opened up to maiden winners as well and he broke his maiden tag and Edgcote a couple of weeks ago. He got outpaced again before finishing strongly to get up on the line. He was giving 14lbs to the 2nd so I think it was a strong effort and for a maiden the time was decent. Given his running style it looks like he will appreciate this stiffer test of stamina and he's not without a chance. 
    Hadmeathello - Beat Law Of Gold to land his restricted at Garthorpe in 2019 which was obviously a good performance. He was well behind Getting Closer in his only run last season, but I suspect the soft ground didn't suit that day. For some reason he went to the sales after that and he was a pretty cheap buy in my view which was backed up by his really good win at Dingley earlier in the month. That form was boosted at the weekend when Bingo Star bolted up. As long as the ground isn't too soft he is a player.
    Hotel Du Nord - Gave his jockey his first winner when winning a restricted at Wadebridge in December. Wasn't seen again until a couple of weeks ago when he finished 2nd to Deans Road over 2m4f where he made a mistake after the last which cost him. The issue could be if he stays or not as he was kept to shorter trips in Ireland, but the Wadebridge victory was over 3m. He would be another one in with a chance.
    Milberry - To be fair he ran well at Exeter a couple of weeks ago when making Chase Me work hard for the win, but that isn't a strong level of form and he should struggle here.
    Ryans Fancy - Beat Schiap Hill in October by 10L which was further than Hotel Du Nord beat him by. He then didn't run until the race Benefaktor won at Revesby, but was pulled up. He did bounce back to win earlier in the month, but it wasn't the strongest race in the world and my feeling is he needs to find a bit of improvement to win.
    Verdict - This looks wide open but the short list for me is Benefaktor, Captain McGinley, Gutteral, Hadmeathell and Hotel Du Nord. I thought Benefaktor was superb in winning last time and there is depth to the form even though he won hard held by 25L.He looks very progressive. Hadmeathello looks over priced as his form also looks strong and the change of yards hasn't stopped his progression. I am also going to add Guttural to the list as he is getting better with each run and this test looks like it will be ideal for him.
    Benefaktor 2pts @ 5/2 with all bookies
    Hadmeathello 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365
    Guttutal 0.5pts e/w @ 11/1 with all bookies
    6.10 
    Fixe Le Kap - Ran OK when 4th last time and the same when 5th behind Risk And Roll at Stratford last March. Hard to see him being good enough to win this though based on even that form.
    I'm Wiser Now - I had him down as a serial loser given he couldn't even win a maiden point earlier in the season. To be fair the 3rd and 2nd in two hunter chases at Leicester were decent enough efforts and he then went on to win twice at Stratford. He was given two very good rides by Liam Harrison and then Albi Tufnell who is on top again here. In both races he looked beat going down the back straight only to stay on well and then gain the upper hand after the last. There is a sense though that he benefitted from his rivals issues in those two races and that given he needs to be delivered late this track might not be ideal for him. He's also unproven over this trip.
    Knockaderry Flyer - Won this in 2017, but it was probably one of the worst races ever staged at Cheltenham and he's struggled on the whole since. Did manage to win again last time though in a point and does have James King on top. Even so he would need others to under perform to win this.
    Mister Serious - Looks to have no chance.
    Moscow Prices - Was a well beaten 3rd in this in 2019 and although he won last time and has a positive jockey switch it is hard to see how he can improve on that 3rd.
    Trio For Rio - Ran well at Larkhill behind Salvatore on his seasonal debut and followed that up with an 11L success over Garde Ville at Ludlow which is obviously looking like a strong piece of form. He was then beaten into 3rd back in a point at Maisemore a month ago, but I think that was a strong piece of form as the winner is a course specialist and put in a very good performance. Should be a big player.
    Wick Green - In the end he had little to beat at Exeter last time because the favourite Chameron jumped terribly and didn't travel well at all. Even so I wouldn't want to crab him because he had shown good form last season especially when beating Captain Buck's at Larkhill. I think he has a big chance.
    Verdict - The winner should come from Trio For Rio, I'm Wiser Now and Wick Green. I can see why Trio For Rio is favourite, but he looks short enough to me and Wick Green looks the value call at the prices. Yes he might have not had much to beat last time, but he had shown good form before that and I think he has been priced up on Chameron's effort at Exeter rather than the promise he has shown himself.
    Wick Green 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill and Betfred
    6.45
    Fifty Shades - Has been running well this season having won a couple of times at Barbury in December and then at Cothelstone earlier in the month. He beat Coco Live into 2nd place that day by 2L.His jockey is having his first ride under rules and he should get a good spin round.
    Garde Ville - I think he is in career best form as he has been superb this season. He showed promise at Haydock on his return from nearly 2 years off and then finished 2nd at Ludlow to Trio For Rio. He surprised connections and me by winning over 2m4f at Ludlow and then beat Bletchley Castle again last week this time over 3m. In between those two Ludlow wins he won a match at Sandon in what was Lorna Brooke's final ever winner. That win last week was very poignant and clearly it will be the same again were he to win this. He was entered in the 4m race as well and given how well he stays I reckon he would have gone close in that, but this looks the easier option and I think he could be hard to beat.
    Monbeg Chit Chat - Did clock a good time when winning at Sheriff Hutton a couple of weeks ago and he seems to be running himself into form. Having said that I'm still not sure he will be good enough to land this and he was a well beaten 3rd at Carlisle in March.
    Sugar Baron - He should come on for his first run in just over a year when 3rd earlier in the month. Strictly speaking that form shouldn't be good enough to win this, but he won well over 3m6f at High Easter last March and he has a bit of back class. He has run well at Cheltenham before and hasn't had much racing for an 11yo so I can see him running well.
    Coco Live - Was well beaten off 96 at Wincanton last month and it was a pretty weak contest he won at Charing after that. 2nd to Fifty Shades last time and it would be surprising if he was good enough.
    Flintham - Impossible to know how good he still is. He was regressing in the 2017/2018 season and wasn't seen again until this January when he unseated at the last when tailed off. He then went to Revesby last month and he finished alone so had nothing to beat in the end. That told us nothing so he could be good enough to win this, but on balance of things I am happy to oppose him.
    Just Cause - Beat Sugar Baron 30L at Higham last January, but he was having his 1st start for a long time so there is every chance they will be closer to each other here. He made Rio Bravo work very hard at Revesby last month and on Saturday he was a fair 3rd to Law Of Gold at Garthorpe. He has a very good record pointing and has finished 2nd in a couple of hunter chases which gives him a solid chance.
    Summer Sounds - Has won twice in points this month, but the fact he was 1/4 in a match and then 1/2 a couple of weeks ago shows how weak the races were. His form suggests he will struggle to make it a hat-trick of wins.
    The Brassmoulder - Certainly respect his trainer, but he shouldn't be good enough.
    Verdict - I really fancy Garde Ville here and make him the Nap of the meeting. He doesn't know how to run a bad race and has been improving as the season goes on. He has also proven in the past that he can take plenty of racing so that isn't a concern either. The fact he won over 2m4f two starts back was a big surprise because he stays so well and the further he goes the better I actually think he will be. He looks in his best ever form and hopefully he can be a poignant winner. Sugar Baron and Just Cause are the main dangers for me.
    Garde Ville 4pts @ 2/1 with all bookies
    7.15
    Absainte - A very likeable mare who deserves to find a hunter chase at some point, but she was a well beaten 3rd in this last year and after falling at the last when in 2nd at Musselburgh, she was beaten at 2/5 back pointing last time. That leaves were with a bit to find with the best of these.
    African Belle - Was keen at Kelso and finished very tired after being in front at 3 out. She has been beaten in a point since and she is unlikely to be good enough.
    Berboru - Was stuffed in a maiden point on Saturday and has no chance.
    Fishy Story - She lost many lengths jumping out to her right at Stratford a couple of weeks ago and that cost her the race given I'm Wiser Now only beat her by a length. If she does the same here then she is going to struggle, but she does have the ability to run well.
    Highway Jewel - If she runs to the level she did in either her two starts this season then she wins this. The performance at Chaddesley Corbett in December when beating Hazel Hill is the best one I have seen pointing this season. She backed that up by running really well at Warwick on hunter chase debut and she was just denied by Latenightpass. That form is clearly very strong and I think she would have run very well if she had gone for the race formally known as the Foxhunter last month. Her trainer is now able to ride her which is a big plus and her form is way above anything else that these have achieved.
    Miss Seagreen - Won well at Larkhill in December and followed that up with a good effort on hunter chase debut at Ludlow when a 10L 3rd to Hazel Hill. A couple of mistakes didn't help her that day but it was still a promising first run over fences. She disappointed over the same course and distance the next time though when only 6th behind Trio For Rio. A month ago she bounced back at Maisemore when finishing just in front of Trio For Rio when 2nd in what I think was a strong contest. Clearly her form is below that of Highway Jewel, but she looks the most likely to chase her home.
    Phoenix Rock - Been struggling in handicaps and points this season and should be more of the same here.
    Tuff Nano - The 2nd to Marcle Ridge in December was a decent enough effort, but it also highlights that she will struggle to beat Highway Jewel.
    Verdict - Sadly Highway Jewel isn't really a backable price here, but she really ought to win. If Fishy Story can jump straighter than she did at Stratford she would push Miss Seagreen for 2nd place, but the forecast with Miss Seagreen to finish 2nd looks a solid enough play.
    Highway Jewel to beat Miss Seagreen 1pt f/c
    7.45
    Ennistown - I thought he ran an eye-catching race on his hunter chase debut at Ludlow in January as he never really got involved, but stayed on nicely into 4th place. After that he struggled at Haydock in the Walrus and he then won at Fakenham. Now that wasn't much of a contest, but he did it well enough and he backed that up with a 2nd in the Lady Dudley Cup. He stayed on that day after getting out paced and although we don't know if he will stay he certainly races nowadays like he needs a trip. One for the shortlist. 
    Keltus - Regardless of what happened to Santou Flyer at the last at Wincanton it was still a very good run from Keltus given he was still in contention for the win anyway. Hard to know if he will stay, but if he does he should be capable of running well.
    Kilkishen - Put in a really good performance when winning on debut for Dale Peters at Kelso and the 2nd has run well since to boost the form. He hasn't run since, but you would imagine this race has been the target given he was 4th in the Eider a couple of years ago so we know he will see out the trip. His trainer takes off 5lbs in the saddle which is a plus and he looks to have a fantastic chance.
    Ange Des Malberaux - Speaking of the 2019 Eider this horse finished 8th in that contest and he looks a stayer. He was running well at Ludlow until unseating in the race won by Hazel Hill and then ran as well as could have been expected given he was out the back at Warwick behind Latenightpass. He's struggled again back in points although mainly runs as if he wants further.
    Bob Ford - Shown little in two point runs in the last month.
    Captain Cattistock - Was a close 2nd in the Southern National in 2019 although that is only over 3m3f so we don't know for certain if he will stay. He ran well enough at Wincanton behind Sametegal and Porlock Bay when 3rd, but he wasn't so good at Doncaster last time. He found little when asked for an effort and was a well beaten 4th in the end. He is capable of winning this, but that effort at Doncaster is a worry.
    Dr Des - Ran as well as could have been expected in hot races at Warwick and Leicester. Stamina is an unknown and I suspect he would ideally prefer softer ground.
    Excitable Island - Was awarded this race in 2018 after Battle Dust lost his weight cloth and he was 2/2 in points in 2019. He didn't run last season and was well beaten into 3rd at Dingley by Hadmeathello on his only start this term. Obviously we know he handles course and distance, but at 14yo I struggle to see him winning this again.
    Itstimeforapint - Didn't show any promise at Wetherby in February, but ran better when 4th in the Lady Dudley Cup last time. We know he stays this far and he might just plug on for a place at a big price.
    Know The Score - We know he stays having won over 4m on his pointing debut at Flete Park a couple of weeks ago. He had lost his form under rules for David Pipe when last seen in February last year so the fact he has come back to form is a plus. It wasn't much of a race he won, but he hasn't had much racing and he has claims here.
    Navanman - Was a close 4th to Know The Score at Flete Park last time and if you include jockey's claims there shouldn't be too much between them again in theory, but Know The Score has more scope to improve from his seasonal debut.
    Optimised - With the race now named in honour of Lorna Broke this would be a poignant winner as she rode Philip Rowley's first ever winner under rules. He was 2nd in this in 2019 when going down by a length to Southfield Theatre. The problem is he hasn't really been in the same form since although a small field point on good ground probably wasn't ideal last time. He had a wind op after his first run of the season at Warwick so I do expect some improvement now he is in a bigger field over a trip we know he stays.
    Rock On Carlos - Well behind Know The Score last time and no obvious chance.
    Sam Red - Was 3rd in 2019 but was well beaten and will be lucky to repeat that.
    Talk Of The South - Hard to see him playing much of a part based on what he has done pointing in the last couple of seasons.
    Tanit River - I guess connections will be hoping going a slower pace over 4m will help with his jumping, because he is going to struggle on that front in my view based on his Fontwell and Ascot runs. He probably does have the ability to win, but with 4m an unknown as well he wouldn't be for me.
    Verdict - I can certainly see why people would be interested in backing Captain Cattistock and Know The Score, but for me Kilkishen and Ennistown are the main two to back. I was impressed with the formers win at Kelso on his only start so far this season and given he was 4th in the Eider the trip shouldn't be an issue for him. Ennistown looks like he wants a trip now based on his runs so far this season and that staying on 2nd in the Lady Dudley Cup was a good effort. Speaking of the Lady Dudley Cup I have to chuck a few quid on Itstimeforapint at a massive price. That run showed a lot more promise and we know he stays this far. We have had big priced winners of this before, but he could end up staying on into a place at least.
    Kilkishen 2.5pts @ 11/4 with Bet365
    Ennistown 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with Betfair (4 places)
    Itstimeforapint 0.25pts e/w @ 80/1 with everyone but 4 places with Betfair and Betfred
    8.15
    Clondaw Westie - Ran a hell of a race to finish 4th in the Aintree Foxhunter at 200/1. Easily his best run of the season and proved that he doesn't have to have bottomless ground. If he repeats that effort then he has an obvious chance here.
    Peacocks Secret - Ran a really good race on his first start for Dale Peters when 2nd to Tango De Juilley at Leicester (had Clondaw Westie well behind in 6th) and he won well at Fakenham a month ago. Right Of Reply franked that form at Chepstow last week to give the form some substance and this sort of trip ought to see him at his best. 
    Zamparelli - He could be suited by the way the race is run as there is likely to be plenty of pace on and he will be staying on from behind. He was pulled up behind Marcle Ridge at Barbury in December, but he has been much better since. First of all he ran well to finish 4th at Ludlow when the lack of a recent run probably told and then a week later he bolted up over the same course and distance. This race does have more depth to it, but he will be finishing fast.
    Barney Dwan - Got into a pace battle at Barbury in December and came off 2nd best to Diplomate Sivola who has won again since. Last season he won over 3m4f at Cocklebarrow and was then just denied by Salvatore at Didmarton. He showed good ability under rules for the trainers other half and that includes a 4th at the Festival in 2018. He could be another possible front runner, but he didn't use to be so prominent so I would imagine he will sit off them here.
    Beau De Tabel - His owner win came in a bumper in 2013 which sums up his chances here.
    Billy Hicks - Another who will be outclassed here.
    Cloudy Joker - Was running a huge race at Stratford a couple of years ago when unseating at the last. The 3rd earlier this month wasn't in a strong race and he's another who likes to make the running which I would be surprised if he was able to do against this level of opponent. 
    Eric The Third - He was all out to win a point on Saturday and that form not good enough to win this.
    Marcle Ridge - He won race 3 on this card in 2019 and has continued to run well in 5 races since then. He ran a huge race in last year's Foxhunter making the running for a long way and ending up finishing 6th. He bolted up on his seasonal reappearance and then ran in that hot Warwick race won by Latenightpass. He was the one of the front runners who got tired, but they went such a strong pace it wasn't a surprise given he would have preferred better ground. The concern is he comes off 2nd best in a pace battle up front, but there is every chance that this trip will suit him perfectly and he has an obvious chance.
    Risk A Fine - There is no doubt in my mind that he is the best horse in the race as he was one of the best hunter chasers we saw back in 2019. His two wins at Stratford were especially good and he bolted up off top weight in the handicap hunter chase on hunter chase night the last time we saw him. There are two big question marks about him though. First of all he has to prove he is still as good as he was after 2 years off at the age of 12, but he has proven he can run well after a break so that side of things doesn't concern me. What really sticks in my mind though was his performance in this race two years ago where he put in his worse performance by far of the season. He didn't jump particularly well that night and I think the rain before racing didn't help him as he needs decent ground. My thinking after that race was that connections probably regret running him that night and I'm a little surprised they are having another go with him. He could easily out class the opposition here, but with the doubts about him handling the track I just can't back him at 6/4. I wouldn't be surprised if he drifted closer to the off though and he might become worth covering he got too big.
    Where Now - Will be outclassed here.
    Verdict - The fact that any of the front 6 in the betting wouldn't be surprise winners tells you what a good race this is. Risk A Fine could hack up, but I cant back him at the price he is at the time of writing given how he ran in the race 2 years ago. I am instead going to back Marcle Ridge (stays further so if he gets into a pace battle he might not stop and we know he handles the track), Peacocks Secret (form of the Fakenham race has worked out well and it was a good performance) and Zamparelli (seems to be getting better with each run and this race should be run to suit given his come from behind style of racing).
    Marcle Ridge 1pt @ 4/1 with everyone
    Peacocks Secret 1pt @ 9/2 with everyone
    Zamparelli 1pt @ 9/1 with Betfair and BetVictor
    Punchestown 6.35
    I am really looking forward to this contest and I am as certain as you can be that the prize will be heading back to this side of the Irish Sea. I think Billaway is an opposable favourite. Patrick Mullins was very honest in the Racing Post earlier in the week when writing about his Aintree performance. He mentioned about how he clearly hated the fences and that he should have pulled him up with Punchestown in mind, but with his adrenaline up he carried on and he ran on after he realised there were no more fences left. That is two tough races he will have had at the two big festivals now and he may well have left his race at Aintree.
    Staker Wallace was 3rd at Cheltenham and Solomn Grundy has won his last two and they could end up being the best of the Irish. It wouldn't surprise me if It Came To Pass ran much better than he did at Cheltenham in this. In my view though Bob And Co and Caid Du Berlais are the pair they all have to beat.
    I will always wonder what would have happened if Bob And Co had not unshipped Sean Bowen at Cheltenham, as he was travelling every bit as well as the first two home at the time. I think he is the best hunter chaser in either Britain or Ireland at the moment and hopefully he can prove it here. His owner is back on top, but at least he does get the chance to claim 5lbs to help him. He had nothing to beat at Hexham last week, but crucially he jumped well and that would have given David confidence going into this. If all goes well I think he is going to be very hard to beat and hopefully we can get Cheltenham losses back.
    Caid Du Berlais has to be covered as well though as he has been so dominant in the last two runnings of this. He has had two ideal prep runs winning at Wincanton and Warwick and they suggest that he still retains his ability at the age of 12. If something did happen to Bob And Co then he could well be the one to take advantage.
    Bob And Co 3pts @ 3/1 with Bet365
    Caid Du Berlais 1pt @ 4/1 with everyone
  14. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 1st   
    Another profitable night on Tuesday which ended a very good April. Just the one bet for me on Saturday's National League action.
    Wealdstone v Yeovil
    Granted Yeovil have been pretty hopeless away from home, but then Wealdstone have just been shocking in general of late. They have been conceding goals for fun and have let in 7 and 6 goals in their last two home games. Yeovil have goals in them and I can see them covering the -1 handicap here.
    Yeovil -1 2pts @ 9/5 with Betfred
  15. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > April 27th   
    What a stunning comeback from Barnet on Saturday to come from 2 down to win 3-2 with the score still being 2-1 in the 88th minute was incredible and it made for a very profitable afternoon. Tuesday night I have 3 bets.
    Kings Lynn v Stockport
    The Kings Lynn manager was moaning about the teams pitch after the 3-0 loss to Dagenham on Saturday and said that it didn't suit his team's passing style of football. It clearly isn't going to improve by Tuesday night and given how many goals Kings Lynn are conceding at the moment I can see them conceding a few here as well. In the of their last 4 games they have conceded 4 twice and the 3 on Saturday and they have picked up just 1 point in their last 5 games. One of the times they conceded 4 was in the reverse fixture 2 weeks ago when Stockport won 4-0. Stockport are making a late title push and have scored 12 goals in their last 4 games. The pitch shouldn't concern them and the 11/10 about them covering the -1 looks a good price.
    Sutton v Barnet
    Barnet were a double figure price and that has come in a little, but they are still value at 8/1. A few weeks ago this would have been an easy 3 points for the home side, but as Barnet showed yet again on Saturday they are a very different side under the new management team. With Sutton continuing to struggle to win games there is potential for a bit of an upset here. Sutton have only won twice in their last 8 games and have lost 2 of their last 3. I wouldn't put people off having the draw onside, but I am going to go with the away win myself.
    Maidenhead v Weymouth
    I am going to take a chance on Weymouth here. Granted their away form isn't great, but Maidenhead tired very badly in the 2nd half against Woking on Saturday. Now they were 2 up at the time so maybe the players thought the job was done, but even so it has to be a concern going into this game especially as Weymouth haven't played in two weeks. Therefore at the price I am happy to play as I would make them around 11/4.
    Stockport -1 3pts @ 11/10 with Bet365
    Barnet 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365
    Weymouth 1pt @ 17/4 with Bet365
  16. Thanks
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Hunter Chase - 8.05 Chepstow   
    The Exeter race was a bit of a strange one in the end. Crews Pitch didn't help make the running and at one stage he found himself a long way back as the winner and Hinterleitnweg picked up the pace down the back. He stayed on well enough, but could never get to the winner. Rose Above It looked very green still so should improve, but this was a very weak contest. Fountains Chief looks like he needs 3m and Hinterleitenweg was keen enough in front and had nothing left down the home straight.
    No Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow this year due to the fact there have been no Welsh points, but at least they have kept the hunter chase on the card. Good to see a bigger field than we have seen of late, however 6 of the horses have got no chance. I guess Danny Park is a bit of an unknown, but he has shown little in bumpers and hurdles so far.
    All things being equal Salvatore should win this. He has the best form in the race, he enjoys good ground and has a top jockey on board. The only possible reason he will get beat is the fact he was a bit disappointing at Cheltenham last month and sometimes we do see horses come from Cheltenham and Aintree and then disappoint next time. I'm not sure we will see that happening here though because it is such an uncompetitive contest that he could run a stone below his best and still win.
    I was pretty keen on Master Dancer last time at Ludlow, but he was a big disappointment and to me there was no obvious reason behind the poor show. Everything looked to be in his favour, but he was 60L behind the winner in the end. That was over 2m4f and he did run better over 3m when 4th at Ludlow the time before and maybe rather than the trip it was his fitness that gave way late on. 
    Right Of Reply is the other one who has a chance and he ran really well at Fakenham last month on his first start for nearly 3 years. He caught my eye at Bangor back in February 2018 when I thought he got a kind ride on his 1st start since a wind op. He was poor in two starts after that although his former owner rode him at Towcester which didn't help. He stayed on well behind Peacocks Secret at Fakenham after getting out paced which bodes well for today's test round a less sharp track. 
    In what is likely to be a battle for 2nd I will take Right Of Reply to follow Salvatore home because he should some on for that Fakenham run and it was a much better effort than Master Dancer showed the last day. I will also back Right Of Reply e/w just in case something happens to the favourite. You can get 5/1 so it ought to be money back at worse for that bet. I would also take as low as 4/1 which would only be a small loss.
    Right Of Reply 1pt e/w @ 5/1 with Bet365
    Salvatore to beat Right Of Reply 1pt f/c
  17. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to bartonbank in Non-League Predictions > April 24th   
    I've already mentioned to Darran what I'm putting up here, although he hasn't expressed a view (probably out of kindness!) but bet365's goalscorer market on the Wrexham v Chesterfield market is just jaw droppingly laughable. I won't criticise them for not having Chesterfield's new signing Danny Rowe listed (and we know that, if they listed him at the likely short odds they wouldn't push the others out anyway) but whoever set the odds has done NO research at all, and I mean none.
    Leading the market is Chris Sang, with first/last scorer odds of 6.00 and anytime odds of 2.87. He has played no more than 10 minutes since he joined us (Wrexham) a couple of weeks ago! Following him is Asante (out for 9 months), Dior Angus (he will start but odds are pretty short) and then Scott Boden (who plays for Torquay now!). There are more errors like that but, as such, there are now a couple of players you may want to take a look at.
    The first pick is Jordan Davies. He was the "next big thing" when we sold him to BHA but things didn't work out there for him, although he was a regular in their u23s. Coming back to us and then having to play out of position in "grown up" football has seen him take time to adjust, but he is showing what we know he has now he is playing as an attacking midfielder supporting the fornt two. He has scored 4 in the last 2 games and is known to hit a free kick. He has also hit the post and the bar and the goals have come from his head and both feet. He is brimful of confidence right now. His odds are 17.00 first/last and anytime 7.50
    The second pick, at shorter odds, is another midfielder, Luke Young. He also takes free kicks, is our penalty taker and likes to take a shot if he has sight of goal. He's scored 8 so far and, at odds of 12.00 first/last and 5.00 anytime. Odds are obviously nowhere near the value of JD though.
  18. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > April 24th   
    1 bet 1 winner again on Tuesday night and hopefully the good run can continue with these 3 bets on Saturday.
    Altrincham v Barnet
    Barnet are unbeaten in 3 games since the new management team came in and they look an improved side. They have only conceded once in those 3 matches which is huge given the goals they were conceding before that. Granted they have only score in one of those games albeit they got 3 against Aldershot, and their lack of goals is a concern, but they look too big a price so I have to back them. Alty aren't scoring goals either and haven't scored in their last 3 which they have all lost. 4 games back they beat Maidenhead 1-0, but that was a fluke goal which went straight in from a corner and with Barnet now improving at the back Alty will find it tough to score here. I think these two teams are much closer together right now than the odds suggest and I would make Barnet around 9/4 shots.
    Boreham Wood v Stockport
    You would have made a small fortune backing Wood to draw in recent months and no doubt they won't draw now I have actually put them up as a bet. They drew again against Barnet last week and it almost doesn't seem to matter what level of opposition they are facing. Stockport got two good wins over Kings Lynn and Wrexham, but then they weren't great again against Maidenhead last Saturday in a 2-2 draw. This could easily be another game where the points are shared.
    Maidenhead v Woking
    Opposing Woking has been a nice money earner in recent weeks and I am happy to do so again. At their best I think Maidenhead can beat pretty much anyone in the division and they are finding their form again after a run of poor performances. They put 6 past a hopeless Wealdstone on Tuesday and with Woking continuing to look off the pace I think the home side can pick up another 3 points.
    Barnet 1pt @ 24/5 with William Hill
    Boreham Wood v Stockport draw 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365
    Maidenhead 2.5pts @ 6/5 with William Hill and Betfred
  19. Thanks
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Hunter Chase - 3.50 Ludlow   
    Just the 5 runners but an interesting race which is good to see after the one sided affairs we have seen the last couple of days.
    I can't have Bletchley Castle over this trip and he's been out stayed over 2m4f here the last twice. I am also happy to be against the favourite Favorito Buck's. Paul Nicholls has always liked a hunter chase, but he seems to have more than ever this year. Some of them are bombproof, but he's had failures as well and Favorito Buck's doesn't look the most solid. He's pulled up on two of his last 3 starts and yes the 3rd in between at Ascot would be form that would probably be good enough to win, but on balance I am happy to take him on.
    That leaves us with Call Me Vic and Garde Ville. Garde Ville would be a very poignant winner as it was Lorna Brooke's last ever winner at Sandon earlier in the month and she would have been on board this afternoon. The horse is arguably in the best form he's ever been in. He was eye-catching at Haydock before finishing 2nd over course and distance last month. I didn't think he would have enough speed here a month ago over 2m4f, but he proved me and connections wrong given they thought the same as me. The step up in trip is going to be ideal for him and you can be pretty certain he is going to run his race.
    Call Me Vic might be 14 but his trainer has proven that he does wonders with older horses time and time again including when this one won at Sandown in December off a mark of 121. That came off the back of a good run at Cheltenham having been pointing in 2019 winning 4 times and finishing a good 3rd to Earth Leader. His jockey impressed me on Sunday when winning on I'm Wiser Now and he knows this horse well having been on him in his points and his last two starts under rules. After his Sandown win it was stated he would be given a break to come back in the spring for a hunter chase campaign and I expect him to be fully primed for this.
    I'm fairly confident one of those two will win and the prices allow both to be backed.
    Call Me Vic 1.5pts @ 5/2 with Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred
    Garde Ville 1.5pts @ 4/1 with Betfred and BetVictor
  20. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > April 20th   
    Have added the points now!
  21. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > April 20th   
    One bet one winner on Saturday and hopefully it will be the same tonight. I am opposing Woking again and they host Torquay tonight. I watched Torquay play Sutton last Tuesday and they were very impressive in a 1-0 victory. With players coming back from injury they look back to their early season best and are right back in the title hunt. With Sutton and Hartlepool recording big victories on Saturday, Torquay need to get their goal difference up so I can see them going for the kill tonight. Woking are struggling with injuries and they didn't put up much resistance against Wrexham on Saturday. I think Torquay will cover the handicap so am happy to back them at 12/5 to cover the -1.
    Torquay -1 2pts @ 12/5 with Betfair
  22. Like
    Mindfulness got a reaction from Darran in Hunter Chases - 3.52 Hexham and 5.20 Kempton   
    Great work today @Darran well done mate.
  23. Like
    Mindfulness got a reaction from yossa6133 in Hunter Chases - 3.52 Hexham and 5.20 Kempton   
    Great work today @Darran well done mate.
  24. Thanks
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Hunter Chases - 3.52 Hexham and 5.20 Kempton   
    I have now spotted a betting opportunity at Kempton, indeed it looks a fantastic opportunity.
    Bet365 and Betfair have betting without the front two in the betting market and I can't believe Tom Barton is joint favourite at 13/8 with 365 and 6/4 with Betfair in this market as in my view he should be odds on. Sheer Poetry is the other at the head of the market and she hasn't run for 1096 days and her last win was off 105 back in October 2017. More importantly though is her new trainer has a terrible record with his horses in the past as they have mainly not even completed the course. Dissertation has been off the track for nearly 2 years and is pretty average, whilst the outsider has no chance. As I mention above Tom Barton did well enough at Stratford and his run at Wincanton the time before was decent enough in the context of the other 3 he faces in this market.
    Tom Barton 4pts in the betting without front two market @ 13/8 with Bet365
  25. Thanks
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Hunter Chases - 3.52 Hexham and 5.20 Kempton   
    Clearly it wasn't David Maxwell's finest hour at Wincanton and whilst his sit at Aintree was superb this unseat from Shantou Flyer was a shocker. To be fair I wasn't certain he was going to win as Keltus was still in contention jumping the last and we know Maxwell has looked unfit since his return. I'm not really sure why Keltus had drifted out to 16/1 and I hadn't realised he had got so big until the SP's flashed across the screen during the race. In a match with the 3rd I'd have made him slight favourite over the two. Whatever happened it was a fine effort although Shantou Flyer clearly hasn't run up to form.
     
    The Stratford race was really frustrating as Fishy Story lost so much ground by either jumping out to her right or a slow jump. She only lost by a length and you have to think a better round of jumping would have seen her win the race. Fair play to the winner though who was given a very good ride in what was basically a carbon copy performance of what he did over course and distance last month. He found himself outpaced and then stayed on with great effect after the last. Leaving the back I thought he was the main danger given what happened the last time and so it proved. Captain Buck's never really travelled that well and I think he's basically run his race because he wasn't beaten far at all.
     
    We have two hunter chases this afternoon and we have two more long odds on Paul Nicholls favourites. Bob And Co is in my view the best hunter chaser in the country and if Maxwell stays on he should win by a long margin. I guess after today that is a bigger if than it ought to be, but this really ought to be his first winner back. As much as I am not the sort of punter who will get involved at 1/4 he should be way shorter than that and if he doesn't win by a long way or without coming out of 2nd gear then it will be disappointing.
     
    In theory Black River should come 2nd, but this is his first run for over a year and his first up record isn't the best. He pulled up first time out last season and then went onto land a hat-trick although the last of those was in a match. I just wonder if he might need this especially now he is 12 and there could be value in taking him on.
     
    Given the trainer of Wonderoftheworld has done terribly with her horses so far I can't have him at all and I am amazed he his 3rd in the betting. He also showed nothing at all at Carlisle on his debut for the yard.
     
    Next in the betting we have the two Amie Waugh trained runners and she has chosen to ride Winged Crusader and I think that is interesting. Son Of  Suzie did win 3 weeks ago at Hutton Rudby, but he may have been slightly fortunate given a loose horse bumped into the 1st 3 runners after the last fence and the 3rd was hampered the worse. The time of that race though was 14 seconds slower than the race Winged Crusader was 2nd in on the same card. That wasn't a strong heat, but he is fairly consistent and it wouldn't surprise me if he kept going for minor honours.  
     
    Killer Crow finished in front of Wonderoftheworld at Carlisle as he finished 6th have been up there. He didn't run too badly at Musselburgh the time before either and was an OK 3rd in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup last week. I'd have him a bit shorter in the betting than he currently is myself.
     
    If you can get on with Skybet they are offering 2/1 Bob And Co winning by 10L or more and that seems a price worth taking to me as if he gets round safely he really ought to cover that margin with ease. I will chance a couple of small forecast plays with Winged Crusader and Killer Crow to finish 2nd.
     
    Bob And Co to beat Winged Crusader 0.5pts f/c
    Bob And Co to beat Killer Crow 0.5pts f/c
     
    At Kempton Adrien Du Pont should win fairly comfortably as well. He beat a useful pointer with ease at Newbury and it's hard to see what beats him. I had thought Envoye Special might be a bit of a bridle horse, but he stormed to a good win at Kimble a couple of weeks ago. He was ridden differently that day as well from his 3 previous runs where as he was prominent rather than being held up. He was 4th at Stratford and Tom Barton was one place behind him in 5th, but he was over 20L behind him distance wise. Tom Barton probably paid for being part of a strong pace early doors as he got very tired. I'd probably have them a bit close together in the betting than they are, but I still think Envoye Special is the most likely to finish 2nd. Given the prices I don't see a betting opportunity in this contest.
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