Mindfulness

Blackburn v Swansea: 20 points on Brereton to score at 13/5 PP. Favourite Armstrong not starting, Brereton looks decent at the price in his absence.

Yeh thanks for this @StevieDay1983, good preview of the coming championship season. Interesting to get an overview of where the clubs are currently at.
 

Very true generally and, for me, specifically in antepost markets (I don't like to have too many season long bets) and specifically when it comes to backing assists (it's my worst betting market this year so far). Unless something exceptional is flagged I'll settle for the current bets.
One other player worth a mention is Sancho who could steal some of Fernandes chances at Man U. He was 14/1.
On the spreads, Mbeumo and Toney could be cheap at 3.5 and 3 for Brentford. Both got 10 assists last season (according to Soccerway) and it may not be beyond them to combine for 7 this season. Probably not too much upside given the higher level they'll be playing at but not much downside for anyone who fancied an interest in Brentford's season.

Haha possibly, I do think that most assists for De Bruyne at 7.00 and Fernandes at 11.00 was a good dutch at those prices. Not sure about KDB at 4s though as the added value may have gone now.
Sometimes you have to stay disciplined and not become overzealous in a market. We could end up backing all kinds of players in the assists market if we're not careful with a whiff of transfer rumour here or a snifter of set-piece training drone footage there but really I think your original selections were sound.
PS Don't kill me if Grealish gets most EPL assists this season

Maybe not panic stations yet @harry_rag, let's not forget that Grealish draws a huge amount of fouls (I think he was most fouled person in EPL for 2020/2021). De Bruyne should still remain first choice set-piece taker for City so if anything Grealish may help to supply KDB with more assists by winning loads of free-kicks.

Welcome to my team-by-team preview for the 2021/22 Championship season. Here, I will write a post for each team participating in the second tier of English football including their pre-season transfers so far and where I think they will finish this season. No doubt, we can look back at the end of the season and see how right or wrong I was. 

A few bets from that market for an interest.
12 points on De Bruyne at 6/1 Hills
5 points on Fernandes at 10/1 Sky Bet
1.5 points on Raphina at 33/1 Sky Bet
1 point on Ziyech at 80/1 Hills (or Sky Bet)
I've looked at actual assists gained, actual assists per 90 minutes played and expected assists per 90 minutes played. It remains to be seen how much value the "xA" data has but it should strip out some of the pure luck element (e.g. 3 players could all have "deserved" the same number of assists according to that data, one might have hit the mark, one exceeded it and one fallen short.) Thoughts on each.
De Bruyne - joint second for actual assists on 12 (with Fernandes) played less games and is clear top on the per 90 minutes data and joint top (again with Fernandes) on the xA numbers. I'm confident that 6/1 is too big a price for him, with fitness concerns the biggest threat to getting a run for your money. 7/4 and 3/1 elsewhere.
Fernandes - As per the above, on a par with De Bruyne for actual and expected assists, only 5th on the per 90 minutes stat but no reason to think he'll get less game time (fitness permitting). 5s and 8s elsewhere, I wouldn't take less than the 10/1.
The other 2 are obviously more speculative but that's reflected in the staking. Both look ok on the expected stats, Ziyech is backed with some regards to his figures for Ajax. Hopefully he gets a better actual return in his 2nd season for Chelsea.
 

My old friend Babytaggle is back out in the 3.55 at Stratford and at a double figure price I think he is value for a small e/w bet. He bumped into another well handicapped horse last time and I think late on he paid for trying to go with the winner. He did at least hold on for 2nd and I think he has a solid chance of at least hitting the frame again.
Babytaggle e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365 (11/1 with them to 4 places if you want the extra place)

More Buck's ran an absolute stinker on Sunday although if you did back Babytaggle without the front two in the betting you did have a winner and he remains one to keep an eye on.
The 2.30 at Uttoxeter is a really weak contest where hardly any of them have any credentials which suggests they can win a race. There are two horses here who both come off the back of a maiden point win. I was at Chaddesley Corbett to see That's Me win and it was a very weak contest (the 2nd pulled up next time) which suggests to me that a mark of 92 is too high. To be fair under rules he has been running over shorter and over hurdles so maybe he will improve for 3m and fences as he did when he won last time, but to me he needs to come down the weights even in a weak race like this. 
The other horse Go On Chez makes much more interest. Again he is going over rules fences for the first time having shown very little over hurdles and shorter trips last year. His 3 runs in points have been good though and although his win was over 2m4f last time I actually think his best run was when he was 2nd at Garthorpe on quick ground in April. The horse who beat him was making his debut and made £45k at the sales and was also giving him 10lbs so I think it was a very good effort. All 3 runs suggest a mark of 78 is one he can win off and in my view they were stronger races than the one That's Me won. He is only 5 so could be finally showing his potential which he wasn't able to do last year.
Sometimes in these races something comes from nowhere to win, but outside of Lawtop Legend and Pakie's Dream I couldn't see any dangers to Go On Chez. All bookies apart from Bet365 (who are also shortest price anyway at the time of writing) and BetVictor are going 5 places and it would be disappointing if he wasn't at the very least able to do that.
Go On Chez e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Betfred (5 places)

3 for me in the France v Switzerland game.
20 points on Griezmann to score at 3.8 on BF - looks underestimated v the prices for his 2 fellow strikers
7 points on a Zuber assist at 10/1 with PP - may have shot his bolt with 3 in the last game but I'll take a chance at that price, even against France
15 points on Freuler shown a card at 5.62 on BF (9/2 with 365) - looks the pick of the Swiss players at the price, Xhaka being the obvious (but short) candidate

Dressedforsuccess runs in the 2.40 at Cartmel and I think he is worth backing e/w. He did us a good turn when winning the maiden hunter chase here on bank holiday Monday and I think there will be more to come going up in trip. He wore down Benefaktor on the long run in that day and as much as the pace duel he was in with the 3rd helped soften him up that is just the way he runs anyway and I think he's a little better than a 103 horse so that suggests to me that there is scope for Dressedforsuccess's mark being on the low side. I also think that the fact he was the only horse to come from behind off the quick pace suggests that he put in a very good performance. The ground has come right for him and he has joined the right trainer for Cartmel. The reason I am going e/w though is because it is a decent enough race for the grade. Peter Bowen's horses are back in form again after he had a very tough time of things last season and his Game Line is progressing well and might be up to defying the rise in the handicap after his last couple of wins. There are a couple of other dangers as well including Wishful Dreaming who hinted he might be able to take advantage of his falling handicap mark, but I think Dressedforsuccess can at least hit the frame and hopefully he can do even better than that.
Dressedforsuccess e/w @ 6/1 with everyone

Bizarre situation @Wiltshire Shot but well done for keeping emails and screenshots. Let us know if there are further developments or anything else weird happens with this case.

I really don't have any strong views on today's play-off final. I think the semi-finals showed that there isn't a great deal between the four sides who played in them and that the value play on Notts County was a bit unlucky not to have had a shot at promotion in the final. What I will say is that both sides will be desperate to win more than usual because I think it will be the best chance that either side will have to get promoted for at least another season as next term looks set to be the most competitive league for years.

To be honest @StevieDay1983 De Boer is more likely to be re-hired and then lead Palace to the EFL Championship the way our new manager search is going
And before you say it; NO!!! We do not want to pay you £20m+ for the services of Mick McCarthy.

De Boer wanted Palace to play out from the back but we just didn't have those kinds of players in the squad. He tried playing Milivojevic at RCB and then played Riedewald (who is terrible in the air) at CB in the opening game against Huddersfield who had Steve Mounie at centre-forward, he was a beast in the air. I think the final score was 1-3 to Huddersfield and confidence left the players pretty quickly after that. 
I think I've posted this before but said video will give you an overview of what happened with the De Boer debacle (recollections may vary):
Anyway with regards to De Boer at the Netherlands, I'm guessing he is doing better than his time at Palace. The Dutch players should be much more use to his methods and philosophy, plus their defenders are good technically.

I managed to get Italy at 11.00 on Betfair Exchange a few days ago and I do like them this year. I think defensively they will be very strong which is key for international tournaments. They also have a good mix of youth and experience now while the understanding between Immobile and Insigne up top could prove very effective.
Have also taken Portugal at 10.00 on Betfair Exchange. To me their squad looks even better now and I don't think such long odds are justified when you compare them to the other favoured teams such as France and England.
Apart from those two in the winners market I don't think I can be bothered to get heavily involved with this tournament from a betting perspective, although I will be looking out for the @harry_rag specials with interest!!!

I usually have a very strong opinion on who will claim promotion into the Football League, but this year I don't really although I do think one team offers value. When Stockport and Torquay played each other last month it was a high class game and my thinking was one of those would win promotion and it could even be the play-off final. That is still a possibility and I do think Stockport will beat either Hartlepool or Bromley at home, but I just wonder if Torquay might be vulnerable. Injuries stopped them from winning the league and it may stop them in the play-offs as well. As much as Barnet have improved blowing a 2 goal lead against them when they could still win the title was hardly great and they have drawn their last 4 games. They will host either Notts County or Chesterfield and I am keen on County coming through Saturday's tie. Chesterfield were lucky they had such a kind fixture list in recent weeks as they haven't been playing well for a while now. To be fair injuries have not helped them in that regard but the fact they should have lost to Wealdstone says a lot. I did watch them in the Dagenham game and they were better that day, but Dagenham put in their worst performance for ages and I also think a home crowd helped. They were lucky to beat Halifax last Saturday to get themselves into the play-offs and I think they will struggle against Notts County. County did look at one stage like they wouldn't reach the play-offs and I do think they are still a work in progress, but they have only lost 1 in their last 8 which was against Bromley on Saturday. Bromley needed to win that to get into the play-offs so it wasn't a surprise that they wanted it more, but County still performed well. They still have this knack of scoring long range wonder goals and that is always going to be helpful. Chesterfield have also been leaky at the back of late and I suspect County will get a few chances against them. If they win on Saturday then I think they have a decent chance of getting past Torquay and once in the final that is half the battle. So as much as Stockport and Torquay could easily win promotion I think Notts County at 13/2 is the best value bet at this stage and I think we will see an all County final.
Notts County to win promotion 1pt @ 13/2 with Betfred

After putting up Dark Mahler up I was shocked to see him backed into favouritism at one stage because as I said in the preview Point The Way was certainly they right favourite even if I thought his price was on the sort side. As it turned out he was the strongest stayer in the race and didn't even race lazily as he usually does so it was a pretty easy watch for his backers. Apparently it was the 5th biggest prize money for a hunter chase this season which is great for the northern pointers to go for a big pot, but it was a pretty weak contest for the money. Nine Altars was 2nd again in the contest and he threatened to cart of with his jockey at one stage. To his credit he kept going well enough despite that mid race move. Rattle The Cage was up there, then got outpaced and then stayed on to just get 3rd from Dark Mahler. He was ridden to stay and didn't.
So we are left with just 2 hunter chases at Cartmel to end the season. This is always one of the weaker races of the season and amazingly in the last 9 runnings there has been no winning favourite. Really that ought to change this afternoon because Benefaktor has a fair bit in hand on all known form. I put him up at Cheltenham on the back of a very impressive performance at Revesby on his seasonal return, but after setting a decent pace he failed to stay. He went to Edgcote after that and was made to work very hard by Luke Harvey's Drumlynn to win over today's trip (the official margin was a head, but the pointing formbook reckons it was a dead heat and it did look too close to call for me as well). There are two concerns for me. The first is he had a very hard race that day so it might have left a mark and the 2nd is there could be a fair bit of pace in this contest which might not be ideal either. Still you have the best jockey in the race and you would imagine she will be sensible enough out in front.
To me Gold Time looks a bit short in the betting. She wasn't anything special last season and was pretty exposed in Ireland. This season she unseated in her first two starts the first of which she would have been a well beaten 4th behind Dressedforsuccess. That has to be a concern going under rules for the first time and Cartmel is a tough jumping track. The price is based on the face she has won her last two, beating Teescomponents Boy by a length in what was a decent time and then winning in a pretty slow time at Hexham a couple of weeks ago. She wouldn't be for me.
Given what I have just written it is no surprise that the 25/1 about Dressedforsuccess was taken as he would have beaten her quite comfortably if she had not unseated at the last. That was on good to firm ground so conditions should be ideal and I suspect it was too soft for him at Catterick back in March when he pulled up. The concern is he was a well beaten 5th in this race 2 years ago where he never got involved, but on quicker ground he can do better.
I'm a bit more surprised that Teescomponents Boy has been backed as the 2nd to Gold Time stands and with Immy's claim he is 5lbs better off here. He also ran terribly 8 days ago at Garthorpe and he wouldn't be for me.
Royal Chant weakened very quickly last week at Southwell and the jockey reported that he had stopped very quickly. This is a poorer race over a shorter trip so that might help him here. His best performance of the season was when beating Absainte in April on quick ground over 2m6f. To me he would have more ability than most of these.
Rafferty went off a million miles an hour in the 2m race at Cheltenham and not surprisingly fell in a hole. If he does the same here then he has no chance and I suspect if he did Gina would let him get on with it on the favourite rather than try and keep tabs with him. He bolted up in a maiden over 2m4f on his point debut in April which was his first run for 2 years. I find it hard to fancy him on the back of the Cheltenham effort.
Sliecegar gave his jockey his first winner at Hornby Castle in April and he made all that day after not getting involved at Dingley 5 days before. He was then pulled up in a restricted at Garthorpe when he looked to down tools once he was headed. If he has to lead then he has little chance of doing that for me here and even if he does I can't see him being good enough to stay there.
One For Martha and Some Ambition have no chance and that leaves us with Babytaggle. He led for a bit on Friday, but then just couldn't go the pace over a sharp 2m which was one of my concerns. He's a massive price again on that Huntingdon run especially in this poorer race. The concern though is he is going to struggle to lead again, but then you are getting 100/1 to find out.
I think the best way to play is by taking the favourite out of the equation given I don't fancy Gold Time who becomes a short price favourite in the betting without market. I will back Dressedforsuccess and Royal Chant plus a very small cover of Babytaggle.
Dressedforsuccess 1pt in the betting without fav market @ 4/1 with Bet365
Royal Chant 1pt in the betting without fav market @ 13/2 with Bet365
Babytaggle 0.25pts e/w in the betting without fav market @ 50/1 with Bet365

Totals for the Non-League bets at the end of the normal season are 363pts staked 478.82pts returned for a profit of 115.82pts. The profit in May alone was 30.5pts.

Couple of nice winners there @Darran, cheers!
Your non-league exploits have been exceptional this season, especially with the plague going on.
My analogy would be:
Your piloting a plane full of punters and the plane has 4 engines.
3 of the engines explode.
You still manage to land the punters in quidsville!!!
On a side note, I was at the Bromley V Notts County game today. Bromley looked well organised and gritty with good defensive blocking but perhaps lack the x-factor going forward. They did a professional game today and got the goal when they needed, I think the fans probably gave their performance an extra lift in the second half. Notts County look ok in possession but not that incisive in the final 3rd, instead preferring to shoot from outside the box or edge of the area.
Anyways it was good to get out there and see some live non-league before the season ends. Be interested to hear your thoughts on the play-offs at some point, thanks once again.
 

Couple of nice winners there @Darran, cheers!
Your non-league exploits have been exceptional this season, especially with the plague going on.
My analogy would be:
Your piloting a plane full of punters and the plane has 4 engines.
3 of the engines explode.
You still manage to land the punters in quidsville!!!
On a side note, I was at the Bromley V Notts County game today. Bromley looked well organised and gritty with good defensive blocking but perhaps lack the x-factor going forward. They did a professional game today and got the goal when they needed, I think the fans probably gave their performance an extra lift in the second half. Notts County look ok in possession but not that incisive in the final 3rd, instead preferring to shoot from outside the box or edge of the area.
Anyways it was good to get out there and see some live non-league before the season ends. Be interested to hear your thoughts on the play-offs at some point, thanks once again.
 

Couple of nice winners there @Darran, cheers!
Your non-league exploits have been exceptional this season, especially with the plague going on.
My analogy would be:
Your piloting a plane full of punters and the plane has 4 engines.
3 of the engines explode.
You still manage to land the punters in quidsville!!!
On a side note, I was at the Bromley V Notts County game today. Bromley looked well organised and gritty with good defensive blocking but perhaps lack the x-factor going forward. They did a professional game today and got the goal when they needed, I think the fans probably gave their performance an extra lift in the second half. Notts County look ok in possession but not that incisive in the final 3rd, instead preferring to shoot from outside the box or edge of the area.
Anyways it was good to get out there and see some live non-league before the season ends. Be interested to hear your thoughts on the play-offs at some point, thanks once again.
 

So we finally get to the final day of the regular season. It has been strange just focusing on the one league since January and it has made things tricky at times, but May especially has been a good month. Hopefully we can end it with a profit on Saturday and I have 4 bets.
Altrincham v Torquay
Altrincham had been struggling for a while, but a dramatic 4-3 win against Yeovil and a 1-1 draw against Eastleigh on Tuesday night mean they are ending the season in strong fashion. They played really well on Tuesday against a side of course who are going for the play-offs. I think the crowd helped in that regard and I can see them getting a result here. Torquay can only finish 2nd now and I would imagine they wont want to risk injuries to key players ahead of the play-offs especially as they have suffered from injuries during the season which has probably cost them the title. With that in mind Altrincham are over priced at 4/1.
Barnet v Sutton
Sutton sealed the title on Sunday with a very good performance over Hartlepool and they have been so consistent since last January. The job is done and they wont really care what happens in their final non-league game for now. I don't really need to repeat my thoughts on Barnet and their improvement and they won for us again on Tuesday night. Their first goal was a cracking move as well and after getting a point at Torquay last week I think they have a real chance of picking up 3 here. 6/1 is a crazy price in the circumstances and they should be at least half that if not shorter.
Kings Lynn v Aldershot
I am actually backing the home side here. They did well with a crowd behind them on Tuesday night against Solihull and with Aldershot not really convincing of late especially away from home I think there is some value in backing Kings Lynn to pick up 3 points.
Solihull v Eastleigh
Speaking of Solihull they did at least keep their unbeaten run going and as I have mentioned a few times their home form has been really strong. Not surprisingly they are drifting because Eastleigh need to win this to give them any sort of chance of getting into the play-offs, but I just get a feeling they are running out of steam based on their performance on Tuesday at Altrincham and they could have had a much easier game than facing a Solihull side who have won 8 of their last 9 home games and the one they didn't win was a 0-0 draw against Sutton. I am more than happy to take a chance on them making it 9/10 home victories.
Altrincham 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365
Barnet 1pt @ 6/1 with William Hill
Kings Lynn 1pt @ 8/5 with William Hill
Solihull 1pt @ 14/5 with William Hill

Yet again on Friday a David Maxwell horse was beaten into 2nd place by a horse ridden by Zac Baker which is what had happened earlier in the week at Huntingdon. I thought Jatilwih had come to win the race jumping the last, but he hung in and stuck his head up in the air and just didn't want to go through with his effort. Was that the jockey's fault? Was he hit on the head with Zac's whip? Did he just run out of stamina or has he just become quirky? I'm not really sure what to think although I thought the whip hadn't struck his face despite being very close to it. I would probably lean towards him not wanting to win as that was my initial thinking. Wishing And Hoping was certainly game though and he made all for a good win. Marcle Ridge bombed out big time and I can only think there was something wrong as this was miles below his best and I wouldn't want to blame the ground.
Southwell on Tuesday see another David Maxwell horse as an odds on favourite in the shape of Cat Tiger. As I wrote at the time I thought Cat Tiger was the best horse in the race at Aintree and would have won with a different jockey on. Based on that he ought to be winning this, but David really seems to be struggling tactically this season and this comes on the back of not being fit to start with. He's only managed to win on Bob And Co at Hexham and Punchestown and Dolphin Square in what ended up as a match at Kelso. He's been beaten on horses that should have been good enough to win races and that has to be a concern for anyone wanting to take short odds about him. You would also have a slight concern about the horse staying the trip in soft ground.
Therefore I am happy to take him on with Peacocks Secret and Tanit River as they look the only other two possible winners in the race. Through Tango De Juilley and Clondaw Westie, Peacocks Secret doesn't actually have all that much to find with Cat Tiger at these weights. He gets 4lbs and then Dale takes another 5lbs off. Realistically you can add a few more lbs to that as well as Dale is a better jockey. The soft ground won't bother him and neither will the trip. I thought he paid for trying to go with Marcle Ridge at Cheltenham which cost him 2nd place that night. Obviously he didn't boost the form on Friday, but as mentioned above that clearly wasn't his true running and I still think that was the strongest race of the night. I think he is over priced at 4/1.
Tanit River surprised me at Cheltenham because he put in his best jumping performance of the season. Yes he did jump to his right at some of his fences which won't be ideal round here either, but he didn't make any mistakes which he had done at Ascot and Fontwell in his other two runs this year. To be fair to him he ran well in both those races despite the errors. We clearly know the trip wont be an issue and neither will the ground. He also gets weight from the other two with it being 11lbs from the favourite. Again I think he is over priced at 11/2 and I am happy to take the pair of them to split stakes to beat Cat Tiger.
Peacocks Secret 1pt @ 4/1 with everyone
Tanit River 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365

It wasn't to be for Dagenham on Saturday and to be honest they didn't really deserve anything from the game. They weren't great and Chesterfield played well although Dagenham should have had a penalty at 1-1 and if they go 2-1 up at that stage they might have seen it out. Just the 3 games tonight ahead of the final day of the season on Saturday and I have a couple of bets.
Barnet v Maidenhead
Barnet did amazingly well on Saturday to come from 2 down to get a point at Torquay and essentially meant Torquay would have to think of play-offs rather than the title. I think they will be keen to put on a show for fans here given its been a horrid season for them until the new manager has come in and changed it all around for them. On their day Maidenhead can beat anyone in the league, but Devonshire looked like he was experimenting a little on Saturday against Halifax and I reckon he will do the same here. I would make Barnet around 5/4 so there is some juice in their current price and they are worth backing.
Kings Lynn v Solihull Moors
The home side have lost 8 of their last 10 games and in each of those defeats they have lost by at least 2 goals. Solihull put Wealdstone to the sword on Saturday and I think they will be fancying scoring a few more goals tonight given how leaky Kings Lynn's defence is. Therefore I will take Solihull on the -1 handicap at 2/1.
Barnet 1pt @ 8/5 with William Hill
Solihull -1 1pt @ 2/1 with Betfair