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  1. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 24th   
    The FA Cup is the main focus this weekend and I have 6 possible upsets including a 4/1 NAP. I have an FA Cup 4 fold as well as 1 bet in the National League North.   Maldon & Tiptree v Haringey Maldon were the big story last season in the FA Cup after winning at Leyton Orient in the 1st Round and I reckon they can reach that stage again this season. It was no surprise that they lost some of their best players, including their strike force, after the season they had, but they look to have a strong team again based on the start to the season they have had. They beat National League South side Braintree in the previous round and hosting Harringay from just the one step above will hold no fears. Haringey have had a decent start to the season themselves, but in the league they have had a pretty kind set of fixtures and in reality they probably aren't as strong as their early league position suggests. I think at 15/8 the home side are worth backing.   South Shields v Halifax The home side have underperformed so far this season after having likely promotion taken away from them after Covid hit. They still have a very good side though and I just wonder if a game like this will see them perform to their best. It is a very tricky tie for Halifax whose only win so far was against Dagenham and I certainly think the home side are capable of causing an upset.   Stafford v Skelmersdale Stafford have only managed to get 1 point so far and that was against a Grantham side who have only managed 1 point more. They have managed to score just twice and one of them was an own goal! Now they did cause an upset in the previous round when beating Hereford so they are capable, but that result does stand out. Now they are expected to win which they can't do in the league and I think Step 6 side Skelmersdale have a chance of causing an upset themselves. They have only played 1 league game which they won, but they beat one of Stafford's league rivals Lancaster in an earlier round so we know they can beat someone from this league. At 17/4 it is a sporing play.   Tonbridge Angels v Taunton The home side are set for a season of struggle and they have only just managed to get through to this stage of the FA Cup. They only beat a dreadful Farnborough 1-0 in the 2nd qualifying round and then beat Chichester 2-1 in the previous round. Having lost two of their 3 league games as well it suggests they aren't up too much. Taunton will certainly be the best team they have played in the FA Cup this season. They were unbeaten before losing to the Met Police last Saturday, but they had a great win over Truro in the previous round and they look to have a great chance of causing an upset. When I first had a glance at the prices it was Taunton who stood out for me.    Wealdstone v Hayes & Yeading There has certainly been plenty of goals in Wealdstone games so far this season with them having 4,1,7,7 and 5 goals in their matches. They have won their last two against Wrexham, who missed some good chances and Chesterfield who were poor. I think Hayes are capable of causing an upset here. They have lost just once in the league and were going well when the season was stopped in March. They look worth chancing at a big price.   Weymouth v Oxford City Oxford City did us a good turn last Saturday and they really do look in good shape at the moment. Obviously Weymouth will be a much tougher test than Tonbridge, but Weymouth have found scoring goals hard to come by in the National League so far this season although did score their first 2 when beating Kings Lynn on Saturday. I do think City though have a chance of the upset and look value at 31/10   FA Cup Acca I have a short priced 4 fold for Saturday. Dagenham to beat Hartley Wintney, Darlington to beat Cambridge City, Maidenhead to beat Cray Valley and Chester to beat Marine. The acca pays 2.6/1 with Bet365   Boston v AFC Telford Just the one bet in the league fixtures this week and it comes in the National League North. Boston have only played their opening day fixture because of Covid issues and as much as they won 4-0 against Leamington I do think the time off will be a decent negative here. They face a Telford side who have made a good start to the season winning twice and drawing once. As we know that draw was against Blyth when they should have had all 3 points. That gift of a goal is also the only goal they have conceded in the league so far. I think Telford at 100/30 is way too big given the circumstances and hopefully they can make their extra game time pay.   Maldon & Tiptree 1pt @15/8 with Bet365 South Shields 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor Skelmersdale 1pt @ 19/5 with BetVictor Taunton 2pts @ 4/1 with BetVictor Hayes & Yeading 1pt @ 13/2 with BetVictor Oxford City 1pt @ 31/10 with BetVictor Dagenham/Darlington/Maidenhead/Chester 1pt acca @ 2.6/1 with Bet365 AFC Telford 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfred
  2. Confused
    Mindfulness got a reaction from Tiffy in Premier League Predictions > Oct 17th - 19th   
    You left out the bit about what @Tiffy does with his Cuban cigars before, during and after this process. Needless to say he assured me it was all standard practice in the Brighton nightclubs.
    I actually wouldn't read too much into Brighton's 3 league defeats thus far, for me performances have been good and I expect this to be a real tough game for Palace.
    Palace have more firepower this season with the additions of Eze and Batshuayi but the defence has been a concern early doors with a lot of absent players. Apparently Tomkins and Cahill are nearing returns but unsure if they will make the starting lineup for this game, they better hurry up because Mamadou Sakho is just a massive liability now with countless blunders this calendar year.
    LB Tyrick Mitchell has shown promise since being thrown in at the deep end but Palace fans should not expect him to play amazing every game as he is still very young and consistency is not a given at that age. If Lamptey plays for Brighton this weekend it should make for an interesting clash between the two players on that flank.
    I think the odds have been set fairly in this match, I don't see any added value in either team priced at 2.80. I'm just gonna sit back and watch the game, hopefully I will not have steam comming out of my ears by the end of it.
  3. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 20th   
    4/4 winning bets on Saturday to continue the superb start to the season. It was a very comfortable afternoon as well with all 4 bets landing with ease. Things are rarely that easy, but it is great when it does go that smoothly. So far I have staked 52.5pts and the profit is currently at 57pts. Only 2 leagues have full fixtures planned (although some are off due to Covid and FA Cup reasons) so options are limited. There are 4 teams that make some appeal though with 3 odds on and 1 just about odds against. Because of that I am going to stick them all in an acca which isn't something I would usually do, but I would need 3 to win anyway to make a profit at level stakes so I think it makes more sense to spend a point on the acca which pays 10.6/1 with Betfred
    In the Pitching In Northern Premier I like Gainsborough to beat a Stalybridge side who are really struggling so far this season and Matlock to beat a Grantham side who have yet to win a game. In the Pitching In Isthmian Premier I think Leatherhead can beat a Brightingsea Regent side who sacked their manager at the weekend and the new managers are going to have to work some magic on a team who look weak for the level. East Thurrock only have 2 points from 7 games and they also aren't good enough for the league at the moment. They host Horsham who should have too much for them.
    Gainsborough, Matlock, Leatherhead & Horsham 1pt acca @ 10.6/1 with Betfred
  4. Like
    Mindfulness got a reaction from Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 18th   
    Yes thanks once again @Darran, a particularly good day for you with that huge Gloucester win.
  5. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to dawwe92 in Non-League Predictions > October 18th   
    I've taken a few bets for this weekend.
    Dorking to beat Braintree @ 2.05 5/5 units
    Dorking will be fighting for promotion and Braintree look very weak this season.
    Havant to beat Billericay @ 2.50 2/5 units
    Dartford to beat Bath @ 2.00 2/5 units
    Maidstone to beat Hemel @ 1.95 2/5 units
    Weston Super Mare to beat Wimborne @ 1.90 2/5 units
    Wingate & Finchley to beat Merstham @ 3.90 2/5units
    Gloucester look a good bet aswell, did an acca with all these matches @ 242.85
    Dorking is a maxbet @ 5/5 units and is my bet best for the weekend. GL everybody and cheers Darran for an excellent preview as always
  6. Haha
    Mindfulness got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Oct 17th - 19th   
    You left out the bit about what @Tiffy does with his Cuban cigars before, during and after this process. Needless to say he assured me it was all standard practice in the Brighton nightclubs.
    I actually wouldn't read too much into Brighton's 3 league defeats thus far, for me performances have been good and I expect this to be a real tough game for Palace.
    Palace have more firepower this season with the additions of Eze and Batshuayi but the defence has been a concern early doors with a lot of absent players. Apparently Tomkins and Cahill are nearing returns but unsure if they will make the starting lineup for this game, they better hurry up because Mamadou Sakho is just a massive liability now with countless blunders this calendar year.
    LB Tyrick Mitchell has shown promise since being thrown in at the deep end but Palace fans should not expect him to play amazing every game as he is still very young and consistency is not a given at that age. If Lamptey plays for Brighton this weekend it should make for an interesting clash between the two players on that flank.
    I think the odds have been set fairly in this match, I don't see any added value in either team priced at 2.80. I'm just gonna sit back and watch the game, hopefully I will not have steam comming out of my ears by the end of it.
  7. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 18th   
    More profit on Tuesday to continue the good 1st month or so of the new season. Most of my bets are usually in the National League, but nothing really stands out as a bet this week, so I have 3 bets at Step 2 and 1 at Step 3. Also
    Gloucester City v Blyth Spartans
    Blyth would have gone down last season if the season had of ended and they already look like they will be in a relegation battle this time around as well. I opposed them last week and Telford should have put the game to bed well before they gifted Blyth an equalizer in the 90th minute. They lost in the FA Cup on Wednesday to Marske who are two levels below them and they managed just two shots in the whole game. I have watched all 180 minutes of Gloucester's two games in the league so far and my thoughts pre season that they would be title contenders have been proven by what I have seen so far. They are playing some attractive football and scoring some quality goals. I think they will be suited by their 3G pitch this season as it suits the type of football they are playing and the team is miles better than the Blyth one on paper. It really should be a comfortable home win and the 17/10 on the -1 handicap makes plenty of appeal. I think it is worth covering the -2 at 15/4 as well.
    Oxford City v Tonbridge Angels
    Tonbridge had a slightly surprising opening day win at Billericay, but they were beaten by Hungerford on Saturday and although they are through to the FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round they have had quite easy games against Farnborough and Chichester and were hardly convincing in either. On the other hand Oxford have looked pretty good so far in beating Bath 2-0 on the opening day and then getting a point at Chelmsford. What was particularly eye-catching though was their FA Cup win over Tamworth on Tuesday night. They could both have been at the same level this season and Tamworth are well fancied again to win their league so for Oxford to beat them 6-1 is some statement. If they are in that short of form again here it should be a home win.
    Needham Market v Bromsgrove Sporting
    Needham are still unbeaten in the league and are looking pretty decent and scoring plenty of goals as well. I think they look a bit of value here against Bromsgrove as they are the outsiders and they should be much closer together. They are doing OK and have only lost 1 game, but they aren't quite hitting the heights of last season at the moment. At 12/5 the home side look a good value bet.
    Gloucester City 3pts -1 @ 17/10 with Betway & 1pt  -2 @ 15/4
    Oxford City 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betfred
    Needham Market 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfred
  8. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Fader in LMS Consolation Comp: Week 5 (Deadline Sat 3pm)   
    45 players survive. Good luck all

    Fixtures :

  9. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 13th   
    Not great on Saturday especially with the way Telford decided to gift Blyth an equalizer in the 90th minute having dominated the game which basically would have meant we would have broke even. At this stage we have no FA Cup prices so for now it is 3 bets in the National League and 1 in the Pitching In Isthmian Premier.
    Halifax v Yeovil
    The away side have been disappointing so far this season. I originally thought the opening day 2-2 draw at Kings Lynn was a decent effort, but then when you start working through the form lines of that, the draw at home to Wealdstone and then they were 2nd best against Wrexham on Saturday. I don't think they have got anywhere near their best from last season yet and they face a very tough trip to Halifax on Tuesday night. They deservedly beat Dagenham on the opening day and then lost 2-1 to ante-post favs Stockport. On Saturday they got a very creditable draw at Boreham Wood and given they haven't lost at home since last October a point was as good as they could hope for. They had the better chances in the match as well. I would have Halifax as favourites for this so the 21/10 with Skybet if you can get on with them is huge, but the 15/8 will William Hill is more than acceptable as well.
    Wealdstone v Stockport
    Odds against about Stockport looks huge here. As I mention above I am not sure the draw at Yeovil looked as strong as it did at the time and they were woeful against Dagenham on Saturday. They didn't really have a serious chance until pretty much the last kick of the game and I don't think Dagenham were even that good themselves, but they fully deserved the win. Stockport have done well in their last two games after having a surprising first day defeat and they ought to be in a different class to the home side.
    Woking v Dagenham & Redbridge
    As I mention above I wasn't impressed by Dagenham on Saturday although they clearly deserved the 3 points. I know Woking lost 4-0 in the end on Saturday, but 3 of those goals came late on when they were chasing the game and they certainly were in the game until that point. They were really good in their only home game of the season so far against Solihull and I would have them around the 6/4 mark rather than the 13/5 they are with Bet365.
    Enfield v Kingstonian
    I put the away side up two weeks when this game was called off and I am still going to go with them here. After two heavy defeats Kingstonian seem to finally hitting their stride and although their 1st two wins were against lesser sides the win over Hornchurch on Saturday was a step up. To be fair Enfield had a good win themselves, but I just can't let the away side go unbacked at Bet365's 23/10 which is too big.
    Halifax 2pts @ 21/10 with Skybet (15/8 with William Hill)
    Stockport 3pts @ 11/10 with BetVictor
    Woking 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
    Kingstonian 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365
  10. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 10th   
    It has been a good couple of weeks with plenty of big price winners landed. Hopefully that can continue on Saturday as I have 7 bets across the divisions.
    Chesterfield v Woking
    The home side went ahead via a penalty on Tuesday night, but Hartlepool got 2 goals back to give us a winning selection and I am going to oppose Chesterfield again here. Woking have made a really good start to the season winning both games and they are making a similar start to the one they made last season. They deservedly beat Solihull and then put in the perfect away performance when beating Weymouth on Tuesday 1-0. That came from a set piece and they were dangerous from those all night. I can see them causing Chesterfield issues here and they look over priced at 12/5 to make it 3/3.
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Wealdstone
    This is the live game on BT Sport and I think the away side are a big price at 16/5. Dagenham have to be disappointed with their efforts so far. They weren't great at Halifax last week when losing 2-0 and then they lost 2-1 to Barnet having taken the lead. Granted they were down to 10 men, but given Barnet had been stuffed by Eastleigh on the opening day of the season that was not good. They should be capable of better, but clearly there are gelling issues at the moment. Wealdstone's opening day game was called off, but on Tuesday they got a very good point at Yeovil in a 2-2 draw. I think they will fancy their chances here given Dagenham have been misfiring.
    Maidenhead v Hartlepool
    Kings Lynn left it late to beat Maidenhead as they came from behind twice and then added the winner in injury time, but Maidenhead's two goals came from penalties and it was a deserved win for the away side in the end. Hartlepool are already shortening for this game and it is no real surprise and I think they should be odds on to make it 3/3 against a Maidenhead side who look set to struggle this season.
    Solihull Moors v Kings Lynn
    Happy to stick with Kings Lynn again here. They have now scored 5 goals in their 2 games and although Solihull beat Wrexham on Tuesday night, they didn't perform great and as mentioned above they were poor against Woking. Kings Lynn are full of goals and I think they have a much better chance than the odds of 15/4 suggest.
    Blyth Spartans v AFC Telford
    Blyth would have gone down if the season had ended and even after 1 game it already looks like they could be in trouble this time around. They were easily beaten 4-0 at Guiseley on Tuesday night and with Telford impressing in a 3-0 win over Brackley this ought to be an away win. Telford do seem to have strengthened well over the break and they could be outside candidates for the play-offs.
    Enfield Town v Leatherhead (Pitching In Isthmian Premier)
    Not sue why Leatherhead are such a big price here. Take out the 7-0 horror show against Bowers & Pitsea and they are having a good season so far and it was a superb effort to edge out Worthing in a 7 goal thriller on Tuesday night. Enfield had two easy games to start the season, but their weakness are showing in their last two games losing 4-1 and 5-2. 21/10 looks a big price for an away win.
    Hednesford v Stratford
    Just a handful of games into a 3 year contract and Hednesford decide to to sack Andy Morrell. That's a surprise, but they have had a shocking start to the season. They have 1 point, scored just once and conceded 9 goals in 4 league games. That is not good and Stratford have won 3 of their 4 league games having scored 9 goals in the process. Their one defeat came to current top of the table Needham Market and I am happy to take the 7/5 about them beating a Hednesford needing a manager.
    Woking 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
    Wealdstone 1pt @ 16/5 with William Hill
    Hartlepool 2.5pts @ 6/5 with BetVictor
    Kings Lynn 1pt @ 15/4 with William Hill
    AFC Telford 2.5pts @ 11/8 with Betfred
    Leatherhead 1pt @ 21/10 with Betfred
    Stratford 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365
  11. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 6th   
    St Ives v Lowestoft ( Southern Premier Central)
    Adding Lowestoft to the bets after being alerted to the fact that the St Ives manager has tested positive for Covid and that at least 6 players are showing symptoms and have taken tests although wont find out the results until Wednesday. At this stage the league are forcing St Ives to play the game, which quite frankly is crazy in my view, although I guess they might see sense tomorrow and call the game off. Anyway if it does go ahead clearly St Ives are going to be pretty weak and I guess hey might even struggle to get a whole team out, but that is only a guess at this stage.
    Lowestoft 2pts @ 5/4 with Betfred
  12. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 6th   
    Great to land another big number on Saturday with Eastleigh romping to a 5-1 victory over Barnet. Barnet were the team I wanted to back to go down, but there is still no sign of prices sadly and obviously it would be shorter than it would have been after that defeat. Games are going to come thick and fast now and I have 3 bets in the National League plus one bet in the National League South as the Step 2 get their seasons underway after their FA Cup games on Saturday.
    Chesterfield v Hartlepool
    I was keen to oppose Chesterfield on Saturday and I am keen to oppose them again. I think missing out on playing on Saturday could be a negative thing as it extends the amount of time since they last played a competitive game and Hartlepool got their eye in on Saturday when beating Aldershot 2-1. They certainly look the stronger side on paper and they played pretty well at the weekend. As I mentioned in Saturday's preview Chesterfield have only played 3 friendlies and they look underprepared for the start of the season.
    Maidenhead v Kings Lynn
    Maidenhead were poor on Saturday as they lost 3-0 to Sutton and as much as Alan Devonshire always seems to work his magic in getting them to survive he could struggle to do that this time around. They survived by less than a point on PPG last season and there is a strong chance they would have gone down if the season continued. I thought Kings Lynn did well on Saturday against Yeovil and it showed great character to come back from a goal down twice. They carry plenty of threat up front and I think the Maidenhead defence could struggle to contain them. I am really surprised they are as big as 14/5 as I would have it at least a point shorter.
    Solihull v Wrexham
    Solihull were outplayed by Woking on Saturday and that has to be a concern going forward and they face a really tough first home game of the season against Wrexham. Wrexham had a tough first home game themselves against a very good Boreham Wood side and they edged it 2-1 and I certainly think they will have a better season they did last time around. Indeed, this game seems to be priced up on last seasons form rather than what happened on Saturday and their respective squads. 12/5 looks a big price about an away win.
    Maidstone v Welling
    Welling suffered a big cup upset on Saturday losing 2-0 to Sheppey a team 3 leagues below them. That is hardly a good start to the season and they could struggle here against a Maidstone side who beat Dover 3-0 in their last pre-season friendly game and won at Hendon in the FA Cup on Saturday. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but it really would take some turn around from Welling's effort at the weekend to get an opening day 3 points here.
    Hartlepool 2pts @ 15/8 with Bet365
    Kings Lynn 2pts @ 14/5 with Bet365
    Wrexham 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
    Maidstone 2pts @ Evs with Bet365
  13. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 3rd   
    At this stage we don't have any prices for the FA Cup matches which sees the Step 2 sides make their seasonal return so at the moment the focus is on the opening day of the National League season and I have one bet at Step 3.
    Barnet v Eastleigh
    There is been huge changes at Barnet since they lost to Notts County in the play-offs in July. There has been a change in manager as well as big changes in the squad. Peter Beadle is the new manager which was a surprising choice. I know he used to play for them, but he hasn't managed since Hereford sacked him a couple of years ago and it does strike me as if Barnet have gone for the cheap option. They are one club we know have suffered badly with the current situation and the squad doesn't look a strong one. I am surprised they have been given odds on quotes for this game. I don't think Eastleigh are going to be going to promotion or anything like that, but to me they have the better side on paper and haven't had such a rushed preparation for the new season. They look a good price at 14/5.
    Halifax v Dagenham & Redbridge
    Halifax had an amazing season last time around as they defied those of us who thought they would go down by reaching the play-offs although I think they were fortunate in that regard that PPG was used. I can't see them repeating that feat this season and they look a bottom half side to me. Dagenham will be hoping to be in and around the play-offs and they have a squad capable of doing that especially with McCallum up front who is always going to be a threat. 2/1 looks a good price in my view.
    Wealdstone v Chesterfield
    In some ways it is a shame that Chesterfield are playing Wealdstone on the opening day because I think Wealdstone will struggle this season, but Chesterfield are coming into this season under prepared. They have only played 3 friendlies and some of their players haven't even got a 90 minutes in their legs. It could take them a few games for them to get into gear. Also the manager didn't seem overly happy with the squad he has as he talked about it would be great if they could get more players in, but money is tight. Wealdstone caused a bit of a shock by winning National League South last season, but they deserved it. I like their manager and it will be interesting to see how he gets on for the first time at this level. They have signed Maldon & Tiptree's frontline from last season and although that is 3 steps below this one they did look class players as they showed in the FA Cup so I think they can prove up to this level. It does also show though that they are having to look to promote players up the levels which might not be good for their long term prospects. This though is a good time to be playing Chesterfield and they are good enough to beat them on Saturday.
    Enfield v Kingstonian
    Fair to say that even after just 3 games that I am not massively liking my bet on Kingstonian for the title. They lost to both Cray and Worthing by 4 goals although they played well in defeat to Horsham in the FA Cup and did get a last minute winner on Wednesday night. Hopefully that 3 points will give them a boost going into this game. Enfield did win their first two games, but I think they got lucky with who they played and they were undone by Bishops Stortford in midweek. To me there shouldn't be as big a difference as there is in the prices so the away side have to be a bet at 100/30.
    Eastleigh 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365
    Dagenham & Redbridge 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
    Wealdstone 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365
    Kingstonian 1pt @ 10/3 with Betfred
  14. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Ante Post 2020/21   
    So finally, it seems like the National League season is going to get underway on Saturday with the North and South leagues starting on Tuesday. Who knows if they will get through the season though and I'm not certain they will. Usually I don't write the ante-post preview so close to the season starting, but I obviously wasn't going to write anything until we had as much certainty as possible. It does mean that it will be shorter than usual though especially with Saturday's games needing to be looked at.   National League The two County's head the betting with Stockport just in front of Notts. I prefer Stockport out of the two of them, but I don't think either offer any value at their current odds. Stockport are the money men of the division this season and they have a squad full of quality. Jim Gannon is a good manager and now he has a big budget to work with there is every chance he will be able to get them back into the Football League. The only issue is the price really for me as 4/1 is tight enough although I certainly wouldn't put people off sticking them in multiple bets especially if you are perming teams up.   Notts County let themselves down badly in the play-off final against Harrogate as they defended terribly in the first half and just couldn't contain a rampant Harrogate. They obviously come into this season in much better shape than they did last season where Neil Ardley barely had any time to get a squad together because of the off the field issues, so the fact they are more settled this time around is a plus. It is hard to not see them challenging, but the big issue for me is that losing play-off finalists tend to really struggle to get promoted the following season. Most don't do as badly as Fylde did last season, but the likes of Tranmere and Luton also suffered hangovers from losing the final. Tranmere's slow start cost them when they were a better team than Macclesfield and given how fast games are going to come, I am not sure any side is going to be able to recover from a slow start especially if the season has to be stopped at some stage.   Every other team is in double figures. Yeovil should go well again although they didn't end the season well before lockdown and they don't strike me as possible winners. Dagenham & Redbridge should go better than they have for a while and Paul McCallum is clearly a big signing. Not sure if that will be enough to see them win the title, but they are play-off contenders. I fancied Wrexham last year and they were shockingly poor. They will be better this season and with two Hollywood stars looking to take them over they could have plenty of money at some stage. These things can take their time though so it could be a while before the takeover actually happens and they are ones to keep an eye on at the moment. Plenty of changes at Solihull and they look short enough in the betting at the moment, but they were keen to get the season started so the funds are there which could have a part to play. Halifax look really short in the betting and I can't see them matching last season's play-off finish let alone win the title. Chesterfield seem to be priced up on reputation and they don't really excite me much either.   We have seen some big priced winners of the league in recent seasons and I am going to take a couple at long odds. When Boreham Wood reached the play-off final they lost their best players the following season and nearly went down. They bounced back last season though as Luke Garrard built another strong side to see them in the play-offs again. Crucially this time around though is the fact they haven't lost their best players and I am amazed no league club has purchased Tshimanga after the great season he had after moving from Oxford City. I think they look poised to go well again and given Luke has got his team into the play-offs twice now I see no reason why he can't get them close again. They look over priced at 20s.    I was on Bromley last season and it was looking like a really good bet for the first few months, but their form went south and they struggled to win a game. I do wonder though if they might have still been able to finish in the play-offs if the season had been able to finish. They were pretty quiet for most of the summer, but they have added well the closer we get to the start of the season and the budget is the same as last time. They have been forgotten about for me and at 40/1 I have to get involved.   I like to get involved in the relegation market and although I got it badly wrong last season, it has been a profitable angle. I have a team in mind, but because of Macclesfield the relegation markets have been taken down. If they get put back up then I will likely be getting involved.   Boreham Wood 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365 Bromley 0.5pts e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365   National League North It is frustrating that only 3 bookies have priced up the Step 2 leagues and Bet365 are win only so we are pretty limited as per the Step 3 leagues. York are the favourites at 5/2 which is no real surprise given I think they would have won the league if the season had been completed. Steve Watson has strengthened well in between the play-offs and the season starting and they should be fighting it out for the title again. The problem is the price doesn't offer much value given how competitive the league looks like being. Fylde are the only other team in single figures, but I have my doubts about how well they will go this season. They had a horrid season last time around and they might take a season to recover. Boston and Brackley are always in play-off contention, but I am not sure they will turn that into champions. Chester looked like they wouldn't have much money, but the fans have put in a lot of cash which has helped them although I can't see them winning the title.    At the prices there are two sides I like. Spennymoor had a slow start to last season, but I think they would have been in the play-offs if the season had ended. They have recruited well over the summer and at 10/1 they look a solid each-way bet. The other team I like, and I can't believe I am writing this, is my own side Gloucester City. I'm not sure I ever thought we would be possible title contenders at this level, but for the first time in a long time we have a budget and team capable of competing at the right end of the table. On paper I think Gloucester have one of the strongest in sides in the division and signing the likes of Akwasi Asante from Chester shows the intent being shown. Asante does fitness issues, but when he is on the pitch he will score plenty of goals. My main concern is the manager as this is James Rowe's first job and he did struggle last season, but now he has the team he wants so there can be no excuses now. I think the doubts about him being up to the job is factored into the price though as 20/1 is too big for the side we have. The fact Gloucester are back at their own ground for the first time since 2007 is a big plus as well even whilst there aren't any fans.   Spennymoor 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill Gloucester City 0.75pts e/w @ 20/1 with BetVictor   National League South I honestly think this is pretty much a 3 horse race between the top 3 sides in the betting. Dorking and Billericay are also in single figures and will probably be hoping to get involved, but I am not sure either side have the manager capable of taking them to the title. Ebbsfleet went very much leftfield for their manager getting Dennis Kutrieb from a 5th tier side in Germany. They have signed plenty of players in the close season and look to have a strong side on paper. The big unknown is the manager though and for that reason I can't back them at this stage. Havant had the squad to win the title last season and their home form cost them big time as they kept dropping silly points at home. They have a good squad again and it will be interesting to see if the new 3g pitch helps their home form. I however prefer the side who knocked them out of the play-offs in July, Dartford. When Steve King took over they were looking like they might be in a relegation battle, but they were superb after he came in and it was a magnificent achievement to guide them into the play-offs. Regular readers will know I am a huge fan of Steve King as a manager and his record speaks for itself. I think he has improved the squad with his signings and they have a big chance of claiming the title.   Dartford 2pts @ 6/1 with Bet365   I am also going to add Worthing to the bets in the Pitching In Isthmian Premier. They have got off to a flying start and are looking really good so I want them onside at 5/2.   Worthing 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
  15. Like
    Mindfulness got a reaction from Darran in Non-League Predictions > September 29th   
    Great stuff @Darran, well played mate.
  16. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > September 29th   
    Decent profit on Saturday so hopefully more of the same of Tuesday night where I have 5 bets across the 4 Pitching In divisions.
    Grantham v Stafford
    Going to try Grantham again here despite the loss on Saturday. Stafford have lost both their first two games and are struggling to get going at the start of the season. Obviously it wasn't great that Grantham lost, but it was a late penalty which meant Atherton got the win and they do look stronger than the away side here.
    Gainsborough v Whitby
    Warrington were one of the winners on Saturday when they beat Gainsborough, but despite the 3-0 score line they were fortunate to win. Two of the goals came about because of goalkeeper mistakes and the other one was a penalty. Gainsborough played well and it was a much improved performance from the FA Cup game. I think they are over priced to win this as Whitby were fortunate to come from two down to draw on Saturday against Buxton who were cruising and then conceded two quick goals. I would make the home side favourites.
    East Thurrock v Carshalton
    The home side were taken over by a very rich man in the summer, but he hasn't really spent on the team and they have struggled to far this season losing both their league games. They also have injury issues at the moment and Carshalton really ought to be too strong for their hosts. They were 2-0 up and dominating on Saturday at Margate, but conceded an own goal and a 90th minute penalty to draw 2-2. This game should be easier and 6/4 is a big price in my view.
    Needham Market v Royston
    Needham were well backed on the opening day of the season, but could only draw against Redditch, which on the face of it looked a poor result. However Redditch then went and won on Saturday so maybe they are going to be better than myself and others were giving them credit for. Needham won as well beating Stratford 4-2 in a comfortable victory. Royston look like they might struggle to reach last season's heights. They have drawn both league games so far against Banbury and at Alvechurch on Saturday. Alvechurch should be one of the strugglers and it took a 93rd minute goal to get Royston a point. The prices are massively out here in my view and there is no way the home side should be 3/1.
    Rushall Olympic v Bromsgrove Sporting
    Another game were the home side are wrongly priced at 3/1. Rushall eased passed Leiston on the opening day, but they were even better when drawing against Peterborough Sports on Saturday. They were down to 10 men whilst a goal down as well, but deserved the point. Bromsgrove won for us on Saturday, but didn't really deserve to win as Biggleswade deserved at least a point. Bromsgrove haven't really convinced so far this season and are struggling to match their performances of last time around at the moment. Rushall have got a much better chance of winning this than the prices suggest.
    Grantham 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365
    Gainsborough 1pt @ 17/10 with Betfred
    Carshalton 2pts @ 6/4 with Betfred
    Needham Market 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
    Rushall Olympic 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
  17. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > September 26th   
    Small loss to start the season last week thanks to two of the selections conceding two penalties each. This week I have 5 bets across the 4 divisions.
    Grantham v Atherton Collieries
    I opposed the away side last week which paid off and I think Grantham can beat them again here. Grantham did well to come from a goal down against Morpeth last Saturday especially as they had gone down to ten men. They backed that up with a win via a penalty shootout against Rushall in the FA Cup. Both those sides are better than Atherton and odds against quotes look too big.
    Warrington v Gainsborough Trinity
    Granted Trinity were very good last week when beating Hyde, but they were awful in the FA Cup losing 3-0 to AFC Mansfield. They have had to work with a reduced budget because of Covid and Warrington should be in the promotion hunt yet again. They won at Basford in the opening game and then drew with South Shields in the FA Cup (lost on pens). They should be too strong for Trinity.
    Lewes v Brightingsea Regent
    Two sides who look set to struggle this season, but the betting suggest Lewes are much the better side which I disagree with. They were stuffed 4-1 at Enfield on the opening day and Enfield had been struggling to train as a lot of the team had to self-isolate. They then lost 3-1 to Bedfont Sports in the FA Cup. The away side have also lost both games so far, but only 2-1 both times and as much as it is far from a lump on job they certainly look more than good enough to pick up 3 points here at 3/1. No way should Lewes be odds on based on their opening efforts.
    Biggleswade Town v Bromsgrove
    Biggleswade look pretty hopeless so far. They lost 1-0 to St Ives on the opening day and they are a side who will be in the bottom 6 I would imagine this season. They were then stuffed 5-1 at Leiston in the FA Cup which was another shocking effort. Bromsgrove will be expecting to be at the other end of the table. They got a late goal to get a point against Coalville and although they lost in the FA Cup to Stratford that was still a decent effort. Bromsgrove should be picking up their first win of the season here.
    Poole v Hayes & Yeading
    Hayes were involved in a good opening day game against Taunton and ended up with a point. They then beat Margate in the FA Cup and are looking in decent shape this season based on those two efforts. Poole ended up with a bye in the FA Cup and did win on the opening day, but they only created a couple of clear chances and scored from both of them. Granted that's being very clinical, but that isn't going to happen every week and I think Hayes are the better side so look value to me.
    Grantham 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Bet365
    Warrington 2pts @ Evs with Bet365
    Brightlingsea Regent 1pt @ 31/10 with Bet365
    Bromsgrove 2.5pts @ 13/10 with Bet365
    Hayes & Yeading 1pt @ 9/4 with Betfred
  18. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > September 19th   
    So the first Saturday of the season and who knows how many more we will get so let's see if we can make some cash whilst we can. I have 5 bets and here are my brief thoughts.
    Bishops Stortford v Bognor
    I was close to putting Bognor up as an ante-post bet and certainly think they can get off to a winning start against a Stortford side who look set for a season of struggle.
    Cray Wanderers v Kingstonian
    This is the value play of the day. I have put Kingstonian up as a bet to win the title and as much as I think Cray can put themselves in the promotion picture again I do think Kingstonian are a big price to take 3 points here. As I said in the ante-post preview if Kingstonian weren't far away last season and I think the amount of draws and the games in hand they hand masked their true level. Add into the fact they have strengthened and I think they have a better chance of winning here than the bookies have them.
    Dorchester v Weston-Super-Mare
    I think Weston will go very well this season and they have a very strong side. Dorchester struggled last term and although they might improve a bit on that this is a very tough start for them.
    Barwell v Lowestoft
    I think Lowestoft are going to be in for a real season of struggle this term. After seasons of having cash, they don't really have any at the moment. Barwell look a solid mid-table side and they should be able to pick up 3 points to start the season.
    Atherton Collieries v Scarborough
    The home side look to have one of the smallest budgets in the league and they look relegation contenders. Darren Kelly has got a decent looking side at Scarborough and he will be hoping they can make the play-offs. They will certainly be expecting 3 points to start the season.
    Bognor 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill
    Kingstonian 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
    Weston-Super-Mare 2pts @ Evs with Bet365
    Scarborough 1pt @ 7/5 with William Hill
    Barwell 2pts @ 21/20 with William Hill
  19. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Ante Post 2020/21   
    Step 3 I think finish 15th May and steps 1 & 2 are end of May. Pretty certain all the step 3 league cups aren’t taking place this season 
  20. Thanks
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Non-League Ante Post 2020/21   
    Usually I write this at the end of July so it certainly seems strange to be writing it in mid-September. One of the the other strange things is the fact that the 4 Step 3 leagues start before the National League's and that has meant bookies have been very slow in pricing it up and as I type this Bet365 are the only ones who have priced up all 4. That's great news, but what isn't great news is the fact they aren't taking any each-way bets in those divisions. I have been in contact with them and been told it was a trading decision. It is really frustrating and although I was putting up some win only bets anyway, there were certainly teams who made e/w appeal.
    These 4 leagues were made null and void in March and that means we have the best form guide we have ever had and it is no surprise that the 4 favourites were those 4 teams who would have likely won their divisions for Covid-19 hadn't hit. I must admit it wouldn't be a big surprise if we end up with another non-completion this season so that added to the fact the season starts in 2 days time means these previews are going to be pretty brief.
    Also the National League's don't start until October (crowd restrictions allowing) so I won't be previewing them just yet as I am waiting for more bookies to price up Step 2 and with the Macclesfield situation most bookies have pulled their National League prices.
    Pitching In Northern Premier League
    South Shields tried everything they could to get promotion once the season was declared null and void, but it was just a complete waste of money as they were never going to get the decision overturned. Not surprisingly they are warm favourites at 11/8 for the title and I actually think that price is value. Money is still no issue for the club and they were a notch above their league rivals last season. They ought to be winning the title this season. I can see FCUM, Warrington, Basford and Morpeth all going well again, but I am going to cover Buxton who have strengthened really well over the break. They look to have a bit of cash based on who they have been signing.
    Pitching In Isthmian Premier Division
    I've backed Kingstonian the last two seasons and I am going to put them up again at 16/1 which is too big a price. On the basis they have got a fair bit of ground on Worthing as they were 10th when the season finished and 24 points behind them. They did have 3 games in hand though and they only actually lost one more game than Worthing. The problem was they drew 14 of their 31 games and that obviously cost them big time. It shows though that they aren't far away and they look to have improved again on paper over the break. They can be the one team to make the leap from mid-table to title contenders. Obviously Worthing are contenders having looked set to win the title when the season was stopped, but my other bet will be Hornchurch. They were another team who drew too many games last season having only lost 5 games. They had the best defence in the league and they look to have a good team yet again. At 10/1 they are worth backing as well.
    Pitching In Southern Premier League Central
    Tamworth were my main bets in this league last year and I think they would have won the league if it had of continued. They will be the main bets again this time around at 3/1. They look to have an even better squad this time around and I think they might be quite hard to beat. I also want Stourbridge on side. Getting Mark Yates in as manager was a cracking bit of business and he is more than capable of getting the best out of a strong looking squad.
    Pitching In Southern Premier League South
    3 against the field for me here. I really fancied Weston-Super-Mare last season and they disappointed a bit although towards the end they were getting it together. They have signed really well over the break and as long as it all comes together on the pitch they have one of the best sides in the division. Truro were the most likely winners prior to lockdown and they have got stronger if anything so I have to have them on side. The final bet is Taunton. They went so close to pipping Weymouth two seasons ago and seemed to feel the effects of that last season where they under performed a bit. I expect them to do much better this time around.
    South Shields 3pts @ 11/8 with Bet365
    Buxton 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365
    Kingstonian 1pt @ 16/1 with Bet365
    AFC Hornchurch 1pt @ 10/1 with Bet365
    Tamworth 2pts @ 5/1 with William Hill
    Stourbridge 0.5pts @ 14/1 with Bet365
    Weston-Super-Mare 1.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365
    Truro 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365
    Taunton 0.5pts @ 14/1 with Bet365
  21. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to BillyHills in Last Man Standing - 20/21 (Starts Sept 12th)   
    The new Last Man Standing Competition will begin on September 12th 
    4 clubs will be missing from that set of fixtures
    Man Utd, Man City, Burnley and Aston Villa will start their season a week later due to both Manchester clubs reaching the latter stages of their European campaign. 
    We will be also running a Consolation competition for those knocked out of the main comp.
    All rules will remain the same so any newcomers should give those a read in the meantime.

  22. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Racing Chat - Monday August 17th   
    The race Dido ran in at Newton Abott was a frustrating one for us. First of all the main bet was disappointing, then Bubble O'Clock looked the winner before falling and then sadly losing his life finally Dido who had drifted out to 33/1 flew home to finish 2nd. Given that was his first run for nearly 14 months it was a really good effort and went someway to alleviate the slight doubt I had about his form under rules in the past. His pointing form suggested he could be well handicapped and the Newton Abbot run backed that up. If he comes on for that first run in so long he is surely going to go close here in the 5.10. Schnabel is the favourite, but he runs like he needs further not a drop in trip which he gets here. Hidden Glen and Running Wolf look bigger dangers to me, but again as you would expect for the grade it isn't an overly strong race. The one thing that would worry me is if thunderstorms hit the track as I don't think Dido wants cut in the ground, but I would be amazed if they didn't pull him out if they got a lot of run. Slightly unusually for me I am going to suggest backing him e/w as I am reasonably confident he can be in the first 3 again and at 11/2 with Bet365 or 5/1 elsewhere I want the place part onside.
    Dido e/w @ 11/2 with Bet365
  23. Thanks
    Mindfulness got a reaction from Torque in Serie A & B Predictions > Jul 31st - Aug 2nd   
    Good news for Serie A fans in UK and Ireland next season:
  24. Like
    Mindfulness reacted to Darran in Racing Chat -Saturday 8th Aug   
    Dee Star ran well yesterday but the winner finally managed to win a race. I'm sure he will be back at Cartmel later in the month. Not a bad morning on the Aussie front with 3 winners including New King. There are 3 Aussie jumps races in the morning so I will preview them later today.
    You may remember that I put Jack Snipe up last month at Stratford and he was 3rd over hurdles. He made the running that day, but just got a bit tired on his first start back. He's back over fences tonight, in the 7.00, which he is better over and he is well handicapped on his pointing form. He looks set to get an easy lead again and although the short price favourite has an obvious chance the race is pretty poor. With 6/1 freely available I think he looks a really solid e/w bet as at the very least he should hit the frame.
    Jack Snipe e/w @ 6/1 with William Hill, Betfred and Betfair
  25. Like
    Mindfulness got a reaction from Sterphyle in How to become a professional bettor   
    @Kengur2017 to Punters Lounge.
    I don't know if this will be useful to you or not but I have written down some things that are important to bear in mind if you want to take betting seriously:
    First of all, if you do not have the correct mentality then you will not be able to develop into a professional bettor.
    ‘Tilt’ or ‘Gambling rage’ is one of the first major obstacles that needs to be overcome if you are serious about betting. Tilt is a term usually associated with poker but it can apply to any form of betting:
    Tilt affects all people to some degree, some only suffer from it mildly and can completely eliminate it with a combination of changes to lifestyle and perspective. At the other end of the scale you have chronically impatient degenerates with no self discipline or perspective, the affects gambling has on these people can be highly destructive.   
    Ask yourself: “Do I have self discipline? Can I take a loss or a string of losses and still retain my composure? Do I react to losses by making rash or impulsive bets?”.
    Patience and self discipline are key factors if you wish to become a professional bettor. In my view any professional bettor does not see his or her line of work as a get rich quick scheme. Unless you luck out with some kind of crazy accumulator or long odds punt it will take time to build your bankroll.
    Hurrying to reach the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow can be a toxic mentality. It’s great to visualise a better future for yourself and creating a plan to achieve that but wanting something and wanting it right now will not aid your quest.
    Do you enjoy the process of becoming a professional bettor? If you really do not enjoy the process at all then why are you devoting your time and energy to it in the first place? Obviously the goal is to make money but you shouldn’t try to make money from something you really don’t like as it will inevitably compromise your ability to execute the process effectively.
    You have to enjoy the process of getting there and you have to enjoy the process of learning. Never think you know it all, because believe me no-one does. The road to becoming a professional bettor is a constant process of learning and improving, the path is not smooth and chances are there will be setbacks.
    If and when setbacks occur can you maintain your self discipline and motivation?
    Bankroll Management
    Obviously your betting bankroll needs to be completely segregated from all your other forms of expenditure. Your ability to pay the bills cannot be dependent on how well your betting career is doing – especially if you have a family.
    Set aside only what you can afford to loose as your initial betting bankroll, then understand and accept that it cannot be used for anything other than betting.
    Even if you have only set aside a relatively small amount of money for your initial bankroll you must still treat that money with respect. If you want to take betting seriously then a bet must never seem frivolous.
    One of the first objectives of any serious bettor is to never go broke (loose their entire betting bankroll). The partitioning of your bankroll into individual bets must be sustainable.
    A sensible way to grow your bankroll over the long term is through compounding:
    Partition your results over quarterly or annual periods then incorporate the profits from the latest period into your staking structure.
    For example:
    You have an initial bankroll of $5000 which is divided into 40 individual fixed stake bets of $125 (2.5% of total bankroll)
    At the end of year 1 you make a profit of $1000 so total bankroll is now $6000.
    Year 2 - Your fixed stake bet would be $150 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)
    At the end of year 2 you make a profit of $1200 – total bankroll now $7200.
    Year 3 - Fixed stake would be $180 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)… and so on and so on.
    By using compounding you can exponentially grow your bankroll in a safe and sustainable way. It will require patience and discipline, especially to begin with, but if you are consistently profitable then I would advocate it as a good way to grow your bankroll.
    When it comes to sustainability as a career, one of the main questions is “Where can I get my bets on?”. Bookmakers are no fools, if you are a consistently profitable bettor then sooner or later you will get limited or banned – nothing you can do as it’s in the terms and conditions you agree to in order to bet with them.
    One way to negate this problem is to have accounts with lots of different bookmakers and rotate your bets. It’s generally a good idea to have accounts with different bookmakers as you want to take advantage of different offers and prices etc. Despite this, rotating your bets with different vendors could still be problematic in the long term if you are consistently profitable.
    Betting exchanges is the way to go if you don’t want to get banned or limited. On an exchange you’re betting against other bettors with the exchange operating as the middle man who matches up both sides of a bet. The exchange makes its money from charging commission for each bet made, usually between 2-5% (very reasonable in my opinion).
    The main problems you will face with an exchange are:
    Does it have the market you wish to bet on?
    Does the market you wish to bet on have enough liquidity to get your bet matched?
    Your access to betting exchanges will vary depending on what country you live in. Some of the main ones are:
    If you’re not sure on who to bet with then ask around on this forum and check bookmaker review sites. Always do your research on the various operators and keep appraised of how they’re progressing. If you want betting to become your business then you have a responsibility to follow the industry at large and pay attention to new developments.
    Never leave excess money in an online account for longer than you have to. Your bank should be the safest place to store the core of your funds – distribute them to the various exchanges and bookmakers only when necessary. This will help minimise your exposure if an operator goes bust or they inexplicably transfer your funds to bongo bongo land.
    From reading your post I suspect this is the area you wish to learn most about. Personally I have no special system to offer you, no low risk to high reward strategy, no promises of gold and jewels untold.
    The phrase ‘There’s a million ways to make a million dollars’ also applies to betting. The various methods and strategies you could adopt to become consistently profitable from betting are too varied and too numerous to catalogue in a single post.  
    Ultimately betting is about finding errors in the pricing of an event. If you believe a market has priced something incorrectly you can take advantage of it. Generally speaking, sports betting markets are not stupid. They evaluate outcomes with efficiency but this does not mean they never make mistakes. Your job is to capitalise on those mistakes at every opportunity. This requires diligence and dedication, you must always be on the lookout for opportunities in the market.
    The more knowledge you have on a sport / subject, the more you can spot the opportunities in the market when they present themselves.
    Specialising in a particular sport will help you, it should be a sport that you like watching and can watch regularly in order to gain qualitative information:
    Preferably it will be a sports market which is covered by the betting exchanges with enough liquidity to match your bets.
    Personally I believe it’s important to develop your own betting strategies rather than follow or rely on other peoples. What if you are following someone else’s betting strategy but you do not really understand it and that person then disappears? You probably wouldn’t have learnt much and would be back at square one. Someone may very well come along on this thread and say “Hey Kengur, I have a great betting system that you might want to follow” and it might indeed be a good system but if you can’t fathom what’s behind it then you’re not really going to advance as a bettor. If you want to be ‘professional’ at something you have to be independent and generate your own ideas. Never rely on others to spoon feed you as it’s not sustainable over the long term.
    Punters Lounge is a great site in my opinion – use it. I have learnt a lot from seeing how other people do things over the years on here, there’s lots of useful information on these boards. Just don’t expect anyone to wave a magic wand and make you rich overnight – the world seldom works like that.
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