alexmac
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Posts posted by alexmac
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Royal Ascot week was crazy busy. Loads of stuff on so never posted anything up, came out on top (just), and have no idea how....! Some really good performances there though, and loads to take from it... Brown Panther for the Leger for one.
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Re: Beating Victor Cant do this anymore, got closed down by VC :(
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Re: BBOTD 14th June (Ascot Day 1) Well done for all the winners in here today :nana
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Re: Royal Ascot Says on RP its going to be Good to Soft on Tuesday now...
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Re: Flat Racing; Sunday 11th June
non runner3.25 Doncaster PIAZZA SAN PIETRO Looking at the horses winning form (9 wins from 37 races!), it hasngt won in a field this size before and prefers tracks such as Brighton. THis is also a career high mark now of 89. Has a decent draw in the highest stall and has the champion jockey on board today. It is a typical sprint with no doubt every horse will take a sprint this year, so personally i wouldnt want to having anything around the 7 or 8/1 mark, happy with thr 22/1 i got from B365 0.5pts win 22/1 Bet365 -
Re: Flat Racing; Sunday 11th June Didnt notice he was running today Bowles, cheers. Always follow him after he got the last leg of a Lucky 15 up for me a wee while back :)
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Lacking a winner in the last few weeks! Still, showing a really decent profit for the season. Have not had as much time as I would have liked for bets since Haydock, as work has been manic. Looking forward to Ascot week though - if it is anything like as profitable as it was last year then I will be happy :) Will update all the P/L after today's racing. Good luck everyone today...
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 49 - GALIKOVA - French Oaks 2.30 - 2pts win @ 2/1 Half sister to Goldikova, Galikova is looking to emulate her sibling with a win in a French classic. Said to have displayed more potential than Goldikova at 2, Galikova comes here today as favourite to bag the Oaks, and has every chance of doing so. She has won the last two races, and the form of her 2 year old race has worked out really well, with Misty For Me going on to Classic success herself. Surely, a class act in the making, I am taking Galikova to win well this afternoon. 2pts win
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 48 - SIGNOR VERDI - Doncaster 4.00 - 1pt E/W @ 6/1 Brian meehan knows what he is doing with 4 year old handicappers, as was hghlighted with Dangerous Midge last season. I do not think we are seeing another in that mould here, but I do think that Signor Verdi is on a winnable mark now, after a number of fairly average efforts so far this season. He has been fairly unlucky so far this season, and things have not fallen his way in races. This could have bought him back down to a mark he is capable of exploiting, and with the re-fitting of blinkers, we may see a big improvment in Signor Verdi. At 6/1, I think an each way bet appeals, as he does look capable of winning races. 1pt E/W
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 47 - TIDDLIWINKS - Cork 3.35 - 2pts win @ 2/1 I am convinced that Tiddliwinks has the potential and ability to win decent races this year. After progressing through the handicapping ranks last year, we have seen 2 decent efforts when stepped up in class. Firstly, a 40/1 place showed that he has what it takes to mix it in pattern company. This was followed up by a decent 2nd place behind Hitchens last time out, this time at Group 3 level. Today, he drops back to Listed class, and also tackles 5f for the first time. His trainer thinks he has every chance of seemingly making all, and with Inxile appearing to be the only real danger, 2/1 seems to be a fair price. There is a chance that the ground will not suit Inxile, and he has been slow away from the gate before he could lose out today if that happens, as Tiddliwinks will be trying to win this one from the front I think... 2pts win
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 46 - York 2.10 – TRIP THE LIGHT - 1pt E/W @ 16/1 This selection is based on the fact that stable are flying, and also the fact that the selection, TRIP THE LIGHT is a course winner, and has won first time out, at big odds before. Now, despite this being a bit of a dreadful contest, as the Lady Amateur Riders races usually are, it does not mean that we cannot think a horse is worth a good bet. Trip The Light is forecast to be 8/1, and this represents tremendous each way value. As I have just mentioned, last year, Trip The Light won first time out, despite being a double figure price. That day he was also steered by an amateur jockey, claiming 7lbs.Infact, he has twice won for amateur riders before in his career. The stable are very shrewd with their jockey bookings, and despite not being a household name, Miss T Syddall, will be more than competent. Fahey would not have it any other way. With a strike rate of 25% in his career (10 wins from 40 runs), and a further 8 places – we can see that the horse is nothing but consistent. With 2 of his wins also coming at York, we can see that he goes well at the track, and knows how to win here. It is a difficult track for some horses to get infront at, and if he does get a clean break tomorrow, then there is every chance of him running into the money. Each way bets will return 4 places, and is you search around, some bookies may go 5 places. I do think that the race is of very average quality, but Trip The Light stands out as being a likely player. An each way bet is advised. 1pt E/W
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 45 - Sandown 1.55 – VOODOO PRINCE - 2pts win @ 11/4 (Coral) Another horse who is short in the market, but at the 3.15 price available on Betfair as I type, one to be onside with. Voodoo Prince learned a great deal from his racecourse debut, when he finished 6th of 13 at Newbury. This race has become one of the hottest ran at Newbury so far this season, with Colombian (finished 3rd) going on to well and truly frank the form with his excellent show in the French Derby last weekend. The purpose of that exercise was to let him become familiar with the race course, and get to grips with stalls, preliminaries, and of course – the race itself. Clearly, the penny dropped for his next run and he won very well at Haydock – where Fallon steered him home to win nicely, at odds of 9/4. Tomorrow, he takes on handicappers for the first time, and should well prove that he is a horse to follow for the remainder of the season. The son of the great Ouija Board, will surely progress through the ranks of racing over the years, and if he becomes even half as famous as Ouija Board then I am sure his connections will be thrilled. Dettori takes the ride tomorrow, and despite not covering himself in glory in the Oaks, is still the best jockey in the UK. I am very keen indeed on VOODOO PRINCE tomorrow, and am advising a win bet on him. I also advise you to keep a very close eye on his progress, se and distance winner, and has also won first time out at big as I suspect that he will turn out to be a top quality prospect. 2pts win
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 44 - SEA MOON - 3.50 - YORK - 2pts win @ EVS (vcbet) Sea Moon was heavily punted for this years Derby in the ante post markets, before eventually being removed from the entries. There was nothing in particular wrong with the horse, only connections thought that he had progressed too slowly to be entered in the Epsom showpiece. He is most probably still not at 100% levels of performance, and this is most probably why we see him here, entered in a handicap. Clearly, this horse is not a handicapper, but a very impressive Group performer, who will surely win some very nice prizes in the months to come. He is entered in the King George at Ascot, aswell as the Irish Derby, and it would shock me if he were not to win this very average looking race on route to competing in either of those Group races. Clearly, he is not under the radar, but a well known horse from very well known connections. As a result, we are not going to be seeing any fancy prices about him. However there may well be some bookies willing to take him on, and anything above EVEN money must be viewed as being a very decent value bet indeed. He is far and away the least unexposed horse in the field, and as already mentioned, is expected to blossom into a top drawer race horse. The Hills runner should be viewed as being the main threat to Sea Moon, but I really cannot see any other winner in this race. Unoriginal as it may be, sometimes short prices do offer tremendous value, and I think we have that here in the shape of SEA MOON. 2pts win
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Re: Victor Chandler Mobile £10 Free Bet - Existing Customers too - Royal Ascot Specia Good promo. Although the qualifying bet must be a win single of EVS or greater, not an accumulated bet of EVS or more...
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Re: Royal Ascot Frankel at 1/3... No thanks. Surely, Wooten Bassett at 12/1 is the each way call here. Discard the French form, where he had a shocker of a draw and stood no chance....
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 43 - MASHATU - 21.15 Kempton - 1pt E/W@ 5/1 Another runner I fancy this evening at Kempton is Mashatu. He has been unlucky on his previous 2 runs, where he has ran well to finish 2nd at Yarmouth. He is bred to act well on the AW however, and he is given a chance on that surface this evening. Although he is still a maiden, he has ran well throughout his 6 race career, and he is sure to get his nose ahead soon. Last time out, he was beaten close to home by an excellent ride from Fallon (who was riding a horse a mate of mine owns). Thnat horse is watch Chain, and he is said to be working very well at home. He is highly thought of, so the form is strong and I think that the price of 5/1 represents fair value. Again, an each way bet. 1pt E/W
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 42 - WESTERN PRIZE - Kempton - 19.45 - 1pt E/W @ 5/1 A pretty hot looking race this, and one in which there are a number of interesting runners. One that stands out as possibly having a great deal more to come is Western Prize. One of 5 last time out winners, Western Prize comes here after winning well when sent off odds on favourite on his debut. That was over 1m at Lingfield, and he won well, going away - indicating that the extra 4 furlongs he tackles here tonight should be well within his range. He is bred to get this distance, and should have come on further for his debut. Certainly has a good chance of making the frame, so an each way bet at 5/1 looks to be well worth a shot. 1pt E/W
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Re: The Stewards @ Epsom It was for excessive use of the whip.
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Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 I see the Tour de France guides for this year are coming out... Just bought mine and it has really got me excited for this years race. Anyone got any early thoughts...? I think Cav will be going all out for the Green Jersey this year. Anyone seen any early prices for him to do so?
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 41 - PIAZZA SAN PIETRO - Epsom 5.25 - 1pt E/W @ 10/1 one horse that I always have a close look at is PIAZZA SAN PIETRO. This horse has won well for me in the past, and was successful in his last race at Brighton, where he was very game infront and could not be headed. I think that this track will suit him ideally, being fairly similar to Brighton, and that he will run a big race. The winner of 9 races in his career, but 6 of which came in 2010 – he should have yet more to come this year. He has clearly taken a little while to get used to what it takes to win races, but the penny has certainly dropped for him now, and he now always features heavily in each of his races. Conditions should suit him ideally, with, as mentioned, the track being suitable for him, aswell as the forecasted quick going. I will be shocked if he does not provide us with a strong run. An each way bet is the way to go here 1pt E/W
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 40 - BOURNE - Surefooted Stakes - @ 3/1 I believe there is a real eye catcher in the form of BOURNE in this race. I have been waiting for him to reappear after his latest win at Haydock 4 weeks ago. He won so well that day that it was hard not to be impressed with him, and I am certain that there is a lot more to come from him yet... He has won 3 of his 8 career races, and I think that he is the progressive type to be a bit of a prolific winner this year. The trainer has singled him out as being onbe to follow this year, and with Fallon taking the ride we have an excellent jockey to guide him home. A win bet at 3/1 seems to represent an excellent chance. 2pts win
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bets 38 and 39 - PERFECT BLOSSOM and LA FORTUNATA - 2 x 1pt E/W @ 16/1 each 2 selections are advised – both at big prices, and both at big odds. They are – PERFECT BLOSSOM and LA FORTUNATA. Firstly, the Kevin Ryan trained filly. She is a really consistent type, who won 5 tricky handicaps on the bounce last season. She has course and distance form in the book, which is a big plus on this course, as it is a difficult course to sprint down (steeply downhill). Despite her being off track since last August I am not concerned that she will not be fit, as she knows how to win first time out – as she did last year. There are large double figure prices available for her as I write – 16/1. This is value, and an each way bet is advised. Secondly, LA FORTUNATA, who has been heavily campaigned, despite being just 4 years old. With 18 runs already under her belt, she has progressed through the ranks quickly, and now takes her turn here in a very famous old handicap. She has ran well on a number of occasions, finishing 2nd here twice – and has also got some very decent form in the book. In 2009 she ran to within 3 lengths of the top class sprinter Lady of the Desert – that is outstanding form, and should not be ignored. Despite her not being as prolific a winner, she stands a great chance, and has to be backed eacy way to make the frame. 2 x 1pt E/W
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 37 - RIO DE LA PLATA - Diomed Stakes - 4/1 One selection here in the Diomed, but it comes in the form of a favourite horse of mine – RIO DE LA PLATA. He has taken his time to show his true colours, but last season he was simply brilliant. Winner of 5 of his 13 races, including some Group 1 races – he is a top quality horse, who does not know how to give up. The trainer does not come into this meeting in great form, but the corner has to be turned somewhere, and it could well be here, where he has 2 excellent chances. The race does not look that strong, and I will be amazed if Rio De La Plata does not feature heavily in the finish. Dettori takes the ride, and there is simply no better jockey in my opinion. He has the choice of 2 of the stables entries, so the fact that he has opted for Rio De La Plata is a tip in itself. A win bet is advised on the selection here, at odds of around 4/1. Clearly, in my opinion, the best horse in the race. 2pts win
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Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread I have heard that Fallon has to pay £30k for each ride he now misses for the owners of Native Khan...? Surely that cannot be correct...?
Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts)
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 50 - DHAAMER - Ponterfract 3.40 - 2pts win @ 9/4 Was expecting this to be shorted really. I think 9/4 is a steal for this lightly raced 4 year old. Only been on track 5 occasions, and has shaped with promise on each time. His only run this year came on Oaks day, where he was a sound 3rd. Sand Skier, who finished second that day has gone on to since run very well in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot. With the Gosden yard flying at the moment, he comes here with the benefit of a run, and looks to be the progressive type to do well in his 4 year old season. Ground should be fine, and a strong chance that he will have enough about him to win this one. 2pts win