KennyDelight

Martincova to beat Raducanu seems simple enough? Am I missing something but Raducanu has very little clay experience. The match is a Billie Jean (Fed) Cup tie in front of a traditionally passionate Czech crowd. Raducanu's record this year is average even from being a set up

Martincova to beat Raducanu seems simple enough? Am I missing something but Raducanu has very little clay experience. The match is a Billie Jean (Fed) Cup tie in front of a traditionally passionate Czech crowd. Raducanu's record this year is average even from being a set up

Martincova to beat Raducanu seems simple enough? Am I missing something but Raducanu has very little clay experience. The match is a Billie Jean (Fed) Cup tie in front of a traditionally passionate Czech crowd. Raducanu's record this year is average even from being a set up

Kaia Kanepi 2-0 v Maddison Inglis 1.80 (Bet365)
For me its about levels. Inglis is playing her first match on RLA (Centre Court) and I'm not sure if she can raise her levels to stay in this one, no matter the home support. She hasn't much WTA tour experience too.
She had a good win v out of sorts (possibly hampered by a back injury) Fernandez and scraped past the young qualifier Baptiste. During the match she didn't have an easy service hold and I think that will spell trouble v a player like Kanepi. Inglis also lost 2-6 1-6 v Zidansek and 1-6 3-6 v Rogers in Adelaide, I think it will be a blueprint of how this match will go. 
 

Kaia Kanepi 2-0 v Maddison Inglis 1.80 (Bet365)
For me its about levels. Inglis is playing her first match on RLA (Centre Court) and I'm not sure if she can raise her levels to stay in this one, no matter the home support. She hasn't much WTA tour experience too.
She had a good win v out of sorts (possibly hampered by a back injury) Fernandez and scraped past the young qualifier Baptiste. During the match she didn't have an easy service hold and I think that will spell trouble v a player like Kanepi. Inglis also lost 2-6 1-6 v Zidansek and 1-6 3-6 v Rogers in Adelaide, I think it will be a blueprint of how this match will go. 
 

That Nur Sultan draw is so unbalanced. The top half is stacked with all the better players of the bunch, both seeded and unseeded. But draw is really as unpredictable as they come
Top half seeds Putintseva, Konjuh, Mladenovic, Peterson
Bottom half seeds Minnen, van Uytvanck, Burel, Gracheva
Kaja Juvan is a tasty 17/1 odds from the bottom half of the draw. She has a match v Greet Minnen, the winner faces a qualifier (Boulter/Krunic), someone out of (Vikhlyantseva, Cristian, Minella, Burel), then semi final, final. 
 

I fully agree on what's been said about Siniakova Martincova. It was a crapshoot, plenty of nerves and I'd venture to say that the worse player won, but that's tennis for you. Pavs opened at slightly above 1.20 and she should cruise.
 

Yeah Siniakova showed lots of nerves in her performance. She was fearless for the first 5 points then got nervous serving. The whole match was two women who could barely get a comfortable service hold. Pavyluchenkova should despatch Martincova easily in the next round given the performance v Siniakova today. Plus the courts seem very slow so Pav should dominate. My guess is she'll open at 1.20 to win, maybe lower 1.16-ish
I think there maybe value in Sorribes Tormo winning a set at 1.72 given the conditions and her well known style of play. Has played a match and she was a quarter finalist last year in Ostrava and she is facing Bencic. 

Riske coming off a long week in Portoroz and the way she crumbled on serve in the final v Paolini is very concerning (lost serve 5 times in breaker and then 3 times in second set). Ferro with two matches under her belt in Ostrava in indoor conditions, including a 6-1 6-1 over Blinkova. She plays alot from the baseline and is a more attack minded player who will go for her shots which I think will get past Riske.

Riske coming off a long week in Portoroz and the way she crumbled on serve in the final v Paolini is very concerning (lost serve 5 times in breaker and then 3 times in second set). Ferro with two matches under her belt in Ostrava in indoor conditions, including a 6-1 6-1 over Blinkova. She plays alot from the baseline and is a more attack minded player who will go for her shots which I think will get past Riske.

Teichmann to win a set v Jennifer Brady 1.83 @ Bet365
She is playing a similar player to Rogers. Someone who is a bigger hitter and pretty much plays one way. Teichmann will bring her variety and a few balls with spin to her shots which will trouble Brady as it did v Rogers. I think she is good value for a set. Brady looks overvalued based on it being a home tournament.

Teichmann to win a set v Jennifer Brady 1.83 @ Bet365
She is playing a similar player to Rogers. Someone who is a bigger hitter and pretty much plays one way. Teichmann will bring her variety and a few balls with spin to her shots which will trouble Brady as it did v Rogers. I think she is good value for a set. Brady looks overvalued based on it being a home tournament.

Ludmila Samsonova 2.20 to beat Jelena Ostapenko Bet365
Reasons:
Samsonova has had a full two months of training and playing. Had a full run in Australia including 3 qualifiers.
Ostapenko hasn't featured in any matches in the lead up to the Australian Open and her father recently passed away
 

Alja Tomljanovic 2.10 to beat Anastasija Sevastova Bet365
Reasons:
Home crowd support, a good lead up to the first major with preparation games v Halep, Sharapova, Pliskova and Putintseva
Sevastova leads 2-0 h2h but both in Mallorca on grass. Has been a bit average at end of 2019 and continued with 2 losses in lead up games to the Open to similar players to Tomljanovic (Kenin, Vekic)

Ludmila Samsonova 2.20 to beat Jelena Ostapenko Bet365
Reasons:
Samsonova has had a full two months of training and playing. Had a full run in Australia including 3 qualifiers.
Ostapenko hasn't featured in any matches in the lead up to the Australian Open and her father recently passed away
 

Ludmila Samsonova 2.20 to beat Jelena Ostapenko Bet365
Reasons:
Samsonova has had a full two months of training and playing. Had a full run in Australia including 3 qualifiers.
Ostapenko hasn't featured in any matches in the lead up to the Australian Open and her father recently passed away
 

Alja Tomljanovic 2.10 to beat Anastasija Sevastova Bet365
Reasons:
Home crowd support, a good lead up to the first major with preparation games v Halep, Sharapova, Pliskova and Putintseva
Sevastova leads 2-0 h2h but both in Mallorca on grass. Has been a bit average at end of 2019 and continued with 2 losses in lead up games to the Open to similar players to Tomljanovic (Kenin, Vekic)

Alja Tomljanovic 2.10 to beat Anastasija Sevastova Bet365
Reasons:
Home crowd support, a good lead up to the first major with preparation games v Halep, Sharapova, Pliskova and Putintseva
Sevastova leads 2-0 h2h but both in Mallorca on grass. Has been a bit average at end of 2019 and continued with 2 losses in lead up games to the Open to similar players to Tomljanovic (Kenin, Vekic)

Ludmila Samsonova 2.20 to beat Jelena Ostapenko Bet365
Reasons:
Samsonova has had a full two months of training and playing. Had a full run in Australia including 3 qualifiers.
Ostapenko hasn't featured in any matches in the lead up to the Australian Open and her father recently passed away
 

This is probably the trickiest Grand Slam we've had to deal with so far in terms of conditions, because this is very different from having some rainy weeks. It's also hard to know how good the air quality is going to be in advance, because there are a lot of factors affecting that. I've also read that the umpires will be able to stop play pretty much indefinitely once the air quality becomes unbearable, although how exactly that is going to work is anyone's guess, because I'm sure that they are going to be pushed to the limit in that regard so as not to delay the tournament unnecessarily (well, unnecessarily for the organizers, that is). The world's elite and a few other lucky players are very likely to be shielded from most of the burden thanks to the three roofs the Australian Open comes with and I'm actually not all that surprised that Federer isn't against playing anymore, since he was likely notified that he's going to get all the right scheduling again, as is very likely to happen with Nadal, Djokovic, Barty, etc. as well.
So what are we to make out of all this? Well, I've ran through the quarters a couple of times and, right now, pretty much the only bet that I'm considering is Barty to win her quarter, because she's been seriously impressive this week and as I'm sure that the organizers are going to do everything in order to increase her chances. So yeah, let's actually stick that out there - Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 3.00 with Bet365 - the other strong players in her quarter are Kvitova (who might have serious physical issues) and Keys, while the rest shouldn't be too difficult honestly.
As for the matches, I think that one has to be somewhat cautious and I honestly reckon that the best strategy to make a profit is to stay up all night, watch as many matches and possible, see how the players are coping with the conditions and bet accordingly. I stand by the Pegula bet that I've posted above, as she really is better than Townsend and as, let's face it, Townsend is the likelier of the two to seriously struggle if heat or bad air shows up. In general, you also have to be very wary of players that haven't played in any events so far or that haven't really performed in them, which is why I also very much like Cori Gauff (-2.5) to beat Venus Williams at 1.93 with Pinnacle. If I remember correctly, Venus withdrew from one of the early events due to some health issues and she has some chronic problems as well, so, unless nerves get to her, Gauff should prevail. I also like Shuai Zhang (-2.5) to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.88 with Pinnacle, because the two are going in different directions at the moment and because Sloane just isn't worth backing unless she's focused and on some sort of a run. She has the right skills for beating everyone, but she's just terrible when off and Zhang has the weapons to put her off and a 5-2 season record to boot. I really am focused too much on women and favorites and this might cost me, but what can I do when I don't see anything else? I'll also be backing three straight set victories on that front, Tamara Zidansek (-1.5 sets) to beat Han Na-Lae at 2.02 with Pinnacle, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Nina Stojanovic 2-0 at 1.80 with Bet365 and Magda Linette (-1.5 sets) to beat Arantxa Rus at 1.85 with Pinnacle. Those are some serious mismatches at the moment as far I see things, especially Zidansek and Pavs. Finally, in terms of qualifiers, I can't ignore Lauren Davis (-3.5) to beat Annie Leylah Fernandez at 1.71 with local and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Norbert Gombos at 1.62 with local.
That's what I have so far and I'm looking forward to everyone else's suggestions!

Thanks Money
Was a bit worried when she came onto court with strapping on her thigh, her first service dropped to about 30%, even conspired to throw away a double break lead, but she pulled through against a pretty here and there performance by Stephens
I would not back Ludmila v Pavlyuchenkova/Kvitova, but glad she had enough to get it done today

Thanks Money
Was a bit worried when she came onto court with strapping on her thigh, her first service dropped to about 30%, even conspired to throw away a double break lead, but she pulled through against a pretty here and there performance by Stephens
I would not back Ludmila v Pavlyuchenkova/Kvitova, but glad she had enough to get it done today

Great pick Kenny.. just saw the result 

Tamara Zidansek @1.80 to beat Sara Sorribes-Tormo Bet365
Backing the defending champion here based on the two styles. Zidansek is quick around the court, her positioning is solid and she has the ability to push players around the court from the baseline due to her forehand which is powerful yet controlled more often than not.
She has the ability to slice as seen this week in countering Voegele and Juvan, so I fail to see how Sorribes-Tormo has any advantage over Zidansek.
Sorribes-Tormo's serve is lacking power and is ripe for plunder against Zidansek. Zidansek's serve hasn't been great this week but I don't see how Sorribes-Tormo can take advantage with her lack of power and will most likely resort to her moonball and slice game. With Zidansek's power from the back of the court, this tactic may not come up trumps against an in form clay player who has good defence to to with her attack minded game.

Tamara Zidansek @1.80 to beat Sara Sorribes-Tormo Bet365
Backing the defending champion here based on the two styles. Zidansek is quick around the court, her positioning is solid and she has the ability to push players around the court from the baseline due to her forehand which is powerful yet controlled more often than not.
She has the ability to slice as seen this week in countering Voegele and Juvan, so I fail to see how Sorribes-Tormo has any advantage over Zidansek.
Sorribes-Tormo's serve is lacking power and is ripe for plunder against Zidansek. Zidansek's serve hasn't been great this week but I don't see how Sorribes-Tormo can take advantage with her lack of power and will most likely resort to her moonball and slice game. With Zidansek's power from the back of the court, this tactic may not come up trumps against an in form clay player who has good defence to to with her attack minded game.