giraldi

Just few words about Rostov – United because as I see, the games becomes very interesting to follow.
 
The current tendency is to bet against United. The field is on very bad condition, the motivation or the home team is very high, some missing players on United side, last few very good results on the national league..etc..
 
It seems to me that with intention or not (some guys maybe want to buy at better price J), the price for United win is becoming very good. Now is around 1.85. It is extremely good in my opinion.  
 
It is a huge value difference between teams against Rostov. Of course there may be big surprises (see Bayern) but at this level is something else.  
 
Ok, Rostov had some good results lately but if we look closely to the last 5 games table we notice that won easily against very week teams but failed to win and even failed to score against 3 medium teams, with only 7 (seven) shots on goal in these 3 games.  Hard to think will score against Manchester United.

Finally, I really believe that the last thing Manchester needs at this moment is to think to the second leg with Rostov.  Will force the victory,  maybe a comfortable one to return to Premier problems they have.  
 
Yesterday I did not like 1.65 but today I like 1.85. In my opinion the odds will be a little more bigger but will fall in the afternoon.  I will wait a little bit.
 
More than that, I will try   -1.5 Manchester with odds over 3.30  
 
Of course - just my thoughts.  Everybody has to make his own assessment.   
 
 
 
 
 

Just few words about Rostov – United because as I see, the games becomes very interesting to follow.
 
The current tendency is to bet against United. The field is on very bad condition, the motivation or the home team is very high, some missing players on United side, last few very good results on the national league..etc..
 
It seems to me that with intention or not (some guys maybe want to buy at better price J), the price for United win is becoming very good. Now is around 1.85. It is extremely good in my opinion.  
 
It is a huge value difference between teams against Rostov. Of course there may be big surprises (see Bayern) but at this level is something else.  
 
Ok, Rostov had some good results lately but if we look closely to the last 5 games table we notice that won easily against very week teams but failed to win and even failed to score against 3 medium teams, with only 7 (seven) shots on goal in these 3 games.  Hard to think will score against Manchester United.

Finally, I really believe that the last thing Manchester needs at this moment is to think to the second leg with Rostov.  Will force the victory,  maybe a comfortable one to return to Premier problems they have.  
 
Yesterday I did not like 1.65 but today I like 1.85. In my opinion the odds will be a little more bigger but will fall in the afternoon.  I will wait a little bit.
 
More than that, I will try   -1.5 Manchester with odds over 3.30  
 
Of course - just my thoughts.  Everybody has to make his own assessment.   
 
 
 
 
 

Just few words about Rostov – United because as I see, the games becomes very interesting to follow.
 
The current tendency is to bet against United. The field is on very bad condition, the motivation or the home team is very high, some missing players on United side, last few very good results on the national league..etc..
 
It seems to me that with intention or not (some guys maybe want to buy at better price J), the price for United win is becoming very good. Now is around 1.85. It is extremely good in my opinion.  
 
It is a huge value difference between teams against Rostov. Of course there may be big surprises (see Bayern) but at this level is something else.  
 
Ok, Rostov had some good results lately but if we look closely to the last 5 games table we notice that won easily against very week teams but failed to win and even failed to score against 3 medium teams, with only 7 (seven) shots on goal in these 3 games.  Hard to think will score against Manchester United.

Finally, I really believe that the last thing Manchester needs at this moment is to think to the second leg with Rostov.  Will force the victory,  maybe a comfortable one to return to Premier problems they have.  
 
Yesterday I did not like 1.65 but today I like 1.85. In my opinion the odds will be a little more bigger but will fall in the afternoon.  I will wait a little bit.
 
More than that, I will try   -1.5 Manchester with odds over 3.30  
 
Of course - just my thoughts.  Everybody has to make his own assessment.   
 
 
 
 
 

I studied for many years the rating problem for international games and I found out, like you said, that is extremely difficult to compare based on some rating teams from different leagues. Actually it is not difficult but the results are poor.

First of all, if you use the same method to calculate ELO for each league then comparing one team from Spain with one team from Austria is wrong.  As soon as for each league the sum is zero for all ELO ratings then the first team in Austria league may have bigger rating than Barcelona.

The solution would be to further apply some correction based the league the teams come from but , in this case, the next question is how to find these corrections? It is very complicated.


 
Another problem, as you noted earlier, is different motivation that will affect anyway the ELO rating. As I noticed is that the big teams are not very motivated when play in EL (as they lost contact with CL, their initial goal) and now are focused on domestic championship. The same situation when speaking about small teams because probably they have already reached more than initial goal and  their best  players are already under pressure because are probably  hunted by the bigger teams (Rostov, Nicosia…).

 On this stage I would bet, as motivated teams, on 2nd echelon teams. (Anderlecht, Ajax, Roma….)But this may be a long discussion and it is not the moment now.

Another problem is that the European Cups are almost all or nothing games. The teams have not time to fix the results, maybe just 1-2 games not a whole season like on the domestic league so they are forced to play (at least to try ) at full strength  regardless their ELO coefficient that shows the relative value of the team over the other teams on the same league.  All that count will be their motivation and their absolute strength. Have to read a lot to see what happens inside every team….


 
So, giving these problems I renounced to ELO (or other ratings systems) for international games. Of course maybe some solutions may exists but they are over my resources…


 
Finally, I found that the best method to get something (or at least to lose the minimum possible) from International games is to read all you find about the teams involved, to find their motivation ..all classic stuff.  Then check the odds.

As you said, some teams are over evaluated , not by the bookies but by the other players that did not handle correct the game.  Of course the bookies will be ready any moment to offer a higher price if there are high demands for a result. (Manchester)

Sorry for the long message, I was afraid to write but on my thread only,  because „language barrier” but I got  some courage now.  

  


 

 

 

I studied for many years the rating problem for international games and I found out, like you said, that is extremely difficult to compare based on some rating teams from different leagues. Actually it is not difficult but the results are poor.

First of all, if you use the same method to calculate ELO for each league then comparing one team from Spain with one team from Austria is wrong.  As soon as for each league the sum is zero for all ELO ratings then the first team in Austria league may have bigger rating than Barcelona.

The solution would be to further apply some correction based the league the teams come from but , in this case, the next question is how to find these corrections? It is very complicated.


 
Another problem, as you noted earlier, is different motivation that will affect anyway the ELO rating. As I noticed is that the big teams are not very motivated when play in EL (as they lost contact with CL, their initial goal) and now are focused on domestic championship. The same situation when speaking about small teams because probably they have already reached more than initial goal and  their best  players are already under pressure because are probably  hunted by the bigger teams (Rostov, Nicosia…).

 On this stage I would bet, as motivated teams, on 2nd echelon teams. (Anderlecht, Ajax, Roma….)But this may be a long discussion and it is not the moment now.

Another problem is that the European Cups are almost all or nothing games. The teams have not time to fix the results, maybe just 1-2 games not a whole season like on the domestic league so they are forced to play (at least to try ) at full strength  regardless their ELO coefficient that shows the relative value of the team over the other teams on the same league.  All that count will be their motivation and their absolute strength. Have to read a lot to see what happens inside every team….


 
So, giving these problems I renounced to ELO (or other ratings systems) for international games. Of course maybe some solutions may exists but they are over my resources…


 
Finally, I found that the best method to get something (or at least to lose the minimum possible) from International games is to read all you find about the teams involved, to find their motivation ..all classic stuff.  Then check the odds.

As you said, some teams are over evaluated , not by the bookies but by the other players that did not handle correct the game.  Of course the bookies will be ready any moment to offer a higher price if there are high demands for a result. (Manchester)

Sorry for the long message, I was afraid to write but on my thread only,  because „language barrier” but I got  some courage now.  

  


 

 

 

I studied for many years the rating problem for international games and I found out, like you said, that is extremely difficult to compare based on some rating teams from different leagues. Actually it is not difficult but the results are poor.

First of all, if you use the same method to calculate ELO for each league then comparing one team from Spain with one team from Austria is wrong.  As soon as for each league the sum is zero for all ELO ratings then the first team in Austria league may have bigger rating than Barcelona.

The solution would be to further apply some correction based the league the teams come from but , in this case, the next question is how to find these corrections? It is very complicated.


 
Another problem, as you noted earlier, is different motivation that will affect anyway the ELO rating. As I noticed is that the big teams are not very motivated when play in EL (as they lost contact with CL, their initial goal) and now are focused on domestic championship. The same situation when speaking about small teams because probably they have already reached more than initial goal and  their best  players are already under pressure because are probably  hunted by the bigger teams (Rostov, Nicosia…).

 On this stage I would bet, as motivated teams, on 2nd echelon teams. (Anderlecht, Ajax, Roma….)But this may be a long discussion and it is not the moment now.

Another problem is that the European Cups are almost all or nothing games. The teams have not time to fix the results, maybe just 1-2 games not a whole season like on the domestic league so they are forced to play (at least to try ) at full strength  regardless their ELO coefficient that shows the relative value of the team over the other teams on the same league.  All that count will be their motivation and their absolute strength. Have to read a lot to see what happens inside every team….


 
So, giving these problems I renounced to ELO (or other ratings systems) for international games. Of course maybe some solutions may exists but they are over my resources…


 
Finally, I found that the best method to get something (or at least to lose the minimum possible) from International games is to read all you find about the teams involved, to find their motivation ..all classic stuff.  Then check the odds.

As you said, some teams are over evaluated , not by the bookies but by the other players that did not handle correct the game.  Of course the bookies will be ready any moment to offer a higher price if there are high demands for a result. (Manchester)

Sorry for the long message, I was afraid to write but on my thread only,  because „language barrier” but I got  some courage now.  

  


 

 

 

Icongene, install the software click the UPDATE button then follow the instructions.  I will release you the last free VIP license for this Month.
 

Thank you for your intervention.
Every month I release 1  VIP and 1 ADVANCED  license for the registered users. So, please ask for a free license every month, after 1st day of each month.  I just want to avoid some requests for December next years...etc
Starting with March,  if there are 2 or more requests on the same day I will release the license to the one with the most posts here. I will wait until 2nd March then I will release the licenses.  I think you are good chances as the most just create account to get the license.
The good news is that in March will be 3 VIP licenses because  10 March is the Birthday of my software. It is 6 years old now :))
 
 
 
 

Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool 1. Valiant Thor, the program is written on VFP 9.0 SP2. As I said I am not a professional programmer and this is the only language I learned in school. :) More then that is very simple, very cheap and works great with databases. On the other hand is very old and due that there may appear on some modern systems (especially Windows 8.1) random unstable behaviors. I work to fix them all. The program is written over the past 4 years. 2. Muppet77, just go to my site (see my signature), download page and install the software. At first attempt to UPDATE you will be asked to register. Follow the instructions and send me your user code. As soon as possible I will send you the VIP license that will unleash the entire power of the software :). If I did not say yet, every VIP account is granted for the entire life of the software. If there are around some old users of the software they may confirm that. 3. For anyone, not need at all for reviews to maintain VIP status but It would help me a lot in order to improve some parts of the software. More then 50% of the features are made based on VIP users suggestions so the software is very close of what a punter needs in terms of statistics. 4. Unfortunately, the help manual is far behind the software version so there may be a lot of questions. I am ready to turn myself in "Help manual" mode. 5. Again, this is not a prediction software. If you are looking for a machine to bet for you, believe me, it is not the case.

A new small but useful feature requested by a VIP user
When select to see STATISTICS in the TABLES section you may see now highlighted "Average team" values for goals scored, received, correct score, HT/FT....and more.

Few days ago I  received a suggestion from Johann regarding UPCOMING section.
As you know there are two columns with  calculated values depending on the filters you set - games won, lost, goals scored, received....etc.
This is good but would be much better to compare the values with some reference values, at least within the same league.
Following this, I added two more columns where are calculated the differences between the team values and the  average values for the league.
The result is presented as percent over/under the average value.
For example
23 means "the value is 23% bigger than average value for the same league on the same conditions "     
-45 means "the value is 45% smaller than average value for the same league on the same conditions "     
This will be extremely useful if we are looking for teams or games where one team or both are far away from the average values.

 
Now, the values are highlighted with green (good) or red (bad). The values where the values are highlighted or not are set in the SETTINGS section.



Of course, as usual, may be some bugs or unexpected results. Please report them and this feature will be improved because I think it is very important

The "My games" feature has success and many users asked for few important improvements.
In order to access this feature "right click" on the game in the UPCOMING or RATING tables. This will allow you to store some data about games you will focus a little bit later as the kick-off is coming.
I extended the types of bet. It is possible now to store Asian Handicap and more goal lines.
Also, very important - it is possible to store some notes about the game in order to remember you some things.
Due to lack of space there are few notations but I hope they are clear enough. H - Home, D - Draw, A - Away...etc
If there is not stores a bet but just a note (memo), in the corresponding column will appear just "M". This way you will know that stored some thought there.

Also, please let me know if something goes wrong with this new features.

I answered your private message too late. 
Sorry for that but I had to manage a situation here because  it seems that my last feature - "Suggestions for today" is an headache since there are a lot of users do not know the basics about betting and money management.  Last weeks the results were excellent overall but the "all in" strategy ruined them in few days and of course the most blamed and the only found guilty was my software. I will change something regarding this matter to be sure that will not happen again.
 
Regarding your VIP license, of course you have the promised  free VIP license at your disposal and you may give it anyone you want.    

------------

Punters Lounge now has an Exclusive 50% Discount code for all registered Punters Lounge Forum users which is:
EXCLUSIVE Punters Lounge 50% Discount Code: CGMPL1901
All queries regarding the discount code should go to http://cgmbet.com/contact.html   
-----------
This thread is approved by Paul Ross Some of you already know me because of the few threads that I have started on this forum, most related statistics. Being a big fan of statistics and with some experience in betting I created a small program to help me in finding good matches. Several friends have seen it and wanted it and so on. Now there are hundreds of users all over the world that find my software very useful. The small program has turned into a very complex program still developing. If I had written all the options I would wrote few days so better put a picture of one of the sections. It is "UPCOMINGS" section where future matches can be studied statistically. What you see is about 5% of the features my software offers. Also will find for free over 115 000 records with results, with minutes, from more than 30 leagues for over 5-10 years (depends on the league) As I said 90% of the program is free, including the update of the database. The remaining 10% are reserved for the so-called VIP users, those who have contributed over the years with advice, suggestions, tests and of course with donations. Paul Ross suggested to offer 10 VIP licenses for PL members. I offer 20 licenses VIP for the first 20 users who ask for a license but with the request, if possible, to write here a brief review of the program. Just download the software (the signature link), install it, click the update button and send me your user code. On comment field just write “PL member�. I will announce here when the list is full Anyway please note that non-VIP users have also access to a lot of powerful features. Now, to be very clear – I have enough experience to know that any kind of software is not enough to have success but for sure it helps a lot. My program is not a prediction system. Will not bet instead of you. The final decision is yours after analyze all the information. I will not write here more about the program, I am sure it will speak for itself. I just will answer your questions.
------------

Punters Lounge now has an Exclusive 50% Discount code for all registered Punters Lounge Forum users which is:
EXCLUSIVE Punters Lounge 50% Discount Code: CGMPL1901
All queries regarding the discount code should go to http://cgmbet.com/contact.html   
-----------

I answered your private message too late. 
Sorry for that but I had to manage a situation here because  it seems that my last feature - "Suggestions for today" is an headache since there are a lot of users do not know the basics about betting and money management.  Last weeks the results were excellent overall but the "all in" strategy ruined them in few days and of course the most blamed and the only found guilty was my software. I will change something regarding this matter to be sure that will not happen again.
 
Regarding your VIP license, of course you have the promised  free VIP license at your disposal and you may give it anyone you want.    

davidph, mikeowoicho
Just send me the user codes.

I am sorry but I have just sent the last PL VIP license for November,   yesterday 
Anyway you will qualify for December.
 
As I wrote few months ago: Every month, I will release 5 free licenses for PL members
a. 1 VIP, 2 ADVANCED for all members: - I think you qualify here for December
b. 2 VIP for members with at least 50 posts and at least 1 year account on PL.
 
But the really good news are that will include some LIVESCORE on my software.  I am really excited and I can not think where (what section) to apply this first.
I was thinking that in the GOALS section would be extraordinary - to see live stats as the goals are scored. 
 
 
 

------------

Punters Lounge now has an Exclusive 50% Discount code for all registered Punters Lounge Forum users which is:
EXCLUSIVE Punters Lounge 50% Discount Code: CGMPL1901
All queries regarding the discount code should go to http://cgmbet.com/contact.html   
-----------
This thread is approved by Paul Ross Some of you already know me because of the few threads that I have started on this forum, most related statistics. Being a big fan of statistics and with some experience in betting I created a small program to help me in finding good matches. Several friends have seen it and wanted it and so on. Now there are hundreds of users all over the world that find my software very useful. The small program has turned into a very complex program still developing. If I had written all the options I would wrote few days so better put a picture of one of the sections. It is "UPCOMINGS" section where future matches can be studied statistically. What you see is about 5% of the features my software offers. Also will find for free over 115 000 records with results, with minutes, from more than 30 leagues for over 5-10 years (depends on the league) As I said 90% of the program is free, including the update of the database. The remaining 10% are reserved for the so-called VIP users, those who have contributed over the years with advice, suggestions, tests and of course with donations. Paul Ross suggested to offer 10 VIP licenses for PL members. I offer 20 licenses VIP for the first 20 users who ask for a license but with the request, if possible, to write here a brief review of the program. Just download the software (the signature link), install it, click the update button and send me your user code. On comment field just write “PL member�. I will announce here when the list is full Anyway please note that non-VIP users have also access to a lot of powerful features. Now, to be very clear – I have enough experience to know that any kind of software is not enough to have success but for sure it helps a lot. My program is not a prediction system. Will not bet instead of you. The final decision is yours after analyze all the information. I will not write here more about the program, I am sure it will speak for itself. I just will answer your questions.
------------

Punters Lounge now has an Exclusive 50% Discount code for all registered Punters Lounge Forum users which is:
EXCLUSIVE Punters Lounge 50% Discount Code: CGMPL1901
All queries regarding the discount code should go to http://cgmbet.com/contact.html   
-----------

Finally, the Premier League players database is up to date!
1. Check the players status. Goals scored, minutes played and much more. Just click on the player's name and will see what games played and what he did there.

2. In the Head to head section click on the "Players" tab to see more detailed statistics about each player, considering all the games or only home/away games. Easy to see here what importance has the player for his team.

 
3. In the Head to head section click on the "Lineups" if you want to drag and drop the players on the field in order to see how will look the next game. Each players is labeled to see easier what important is for the team.
 

 
 
 
 

Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool I am sure the subject “Gambler’s fallacy” has been discussed a lot here. Of course the concept is real but the main question is “Is this applicable to series of football games”? I am not an expert but at first sight, without in deep assessment my answer is “NO”. Why? Because, considering football games, the events are not independent. (like lottery for example – where each time the event of extraction 6 balls are independent of the previous). The same situation for the Roulette games. Considering the best team in the league, let-s say will play 10 games in row (one per week) against the 10 worst teams in the league (let-s say they have the same value). Of course nothing extraordinary happens between first and the last game. I was wondering the probability for the best team to win in the first game is the same with the probability to win in the last game? I will let you to think about….., but if not, it is fair enough to think that if the big team not lost for a number of game this event has bigger and bigger chances to happen (of course ..to be check other information)? Now, we all know that finding upsets is the beautiful dream of any punter. Helped by my database I found out the series of “no upsets” for the main leagues. I have no patience to check for all leagues but what I found for France League 1. Considering big team with the odds under 1.50, last seasons never happened to be more that 5-6 games in a row of such games without something to happen there. This season we have the same situation but now there are 8 games in a row without “upsets” as you may see in the picture. The next possible upsets are Lyon – Caen and Guincamp – PSG. I do not say will happen this week and of course is needed a better analyze but is obvious that the “wrong step is coming”. The odds for +0.5 for the underdogs are around 2.70. Please note that in this thread is all about statistics. In order to have a good bet we have to consider many things (info, players, ....etc).

Finally, the Premier League players database is up to date!
1. Check the players status. Goals scored, minutes played and much more. Just click on the player's name and will see what games played and what he did there.

2. In the Head to head section click on the "Players" tab to see more detailed statistics about each player, considering all the games or only home/away games. Easy to see here what importance has the player for his team.

 
3. In the Head to head section click on the "Lineups" if you want to drag and drop the players on the field in order to see how will look the next game. Each players is labeled to see easier what important is for the team.
 

 
 
 
 

fOr3st727, Xtc12 please install, click the UPDATE button and send me your user codes using the form on my CONTACT page. I will send you back the VIP license as soon as possible. So, for this month just 2 ADVANCED licenses remain. Anyway, the ADVANCED version has all the features, except EXPORT and some complex statistics regarding goals minutes.

fOr3st727, Xtc12 please install, click the UPDATE button and send me your user codes using the form on my CONTACT page. I will send you back the VIP license as soon as possible. So, for this month just 2 ADVANCED licenses remain. Anyway, the ADVANCED version has all the features, except EXPORT and some complex statistics regarding goals minutes.

I had few free days and I managed to finish what is now one of my favorite feature of the software. Actually the idea came from one VIP user member. What it is about. The section GOALS was good but only the graph presented was not enough to help somebody too much, especially in live betting. So the idea was to use the database to see what happened in the past games on different scenarios. It is possible now to select a league or two teams and to see what happened in the previous similar games in the case it was 1-1 in the 46th minute. For example I selected Everton (current ELO 1790) vs Tottenham (current ELO 1878) and 1-0 in the 46th minute. I selected "All seasons" in the database and ELO range +/- 75. That means that will be considered all games where home team had ELO between 1715 and 1865 and away team had ELO between 1803 and 1953. The range may be adjusted. Now, on the right we have a table with all the percent for home, draw, away, over or under 0.5,1.5,2.5 and of course the percent for correct score at half time and full time. Click on every column header to sort the values in order to see what is the bigger percent...etc On the graph, as you already now are presented how many goals were scored for each minute. As I see,if the score was 1-0 in the 46th, until 60th minute Everton (teams like Everton vs teams like Tottenham) scored more (also in the last 10 minutes) In my opinion this tool may be used on live betting so the values can be switched to odds instead of percent. Please be careful I did not say probabilities but percent. This is what happened in the past. It is very very possibly to happen in the future but we have to take into account other variables also.

I had few free days and I managed to finish what is now one of my favorite feature of the software. Actually the idea came from one VIP user member. What it is about. The section GOALS was good but only the graph presented was not enough to help somebody too much, especially in live betting. So the idea was to use the database to see what happened in the past games on different scenarios. It is possible now to select a league or two teams and to see what happened in the previous similar games in the case it was 1-1 in the 46th minute. For example I selected Everton (current ELO 1790) vs Tottenham (current ELO 1878) and 1-0 in the 46th minute. I selected "All seasons" in the database and ELO range +/- 75. That means that will be considered all games where home team had ELO between 1715 and 1865 and away team had ELO between 1803 and 1953. The range may be adjusted. Now, on the right we have a table with all the percent for home, draw, away, over or under 0.5,1.5,2.5 and of course the percent for correct score at half time and full time. Click on every column header to sort the values in order to see what is the bigger percent...etc On the graph, as you already now are presented how many goals were scored for each minute. As I see,if the score was 1-0 in the 46th, until 60th minute Everton (teams like Everton vs teams like Tottenham) scored more (also in the last 10 minutes) In my opinion this tool may be used on live betting so the values can be switched to odds instead of percent. Please be careful I did not say probabilities but percent. This is what happened in the past. It is very very possibly to happen in the future but we have to take into account other variables also.