giraldi

Thank you very much for clarifications and sorry for not answering last days but had a kind of flu ... It was the first one in the last 10 years but hit me hard.
This is not a medical forum so let-s return to natural strategy.
I checked last 2 days games and  nothing important happened.  Yes, as harry said there was 5 selections and around 49% Roi but this is not so important at this moment. It is more important to check if the bets were OK and I think 4 out of 5 were OK, I mean it was a good idea to back the away teams. 
Until will have enough data on European leagues I have to check exotic leagues and this is not comfortable because I always hated to play in leagues where I have no idea how to read correctly the teams' name 
For today I selected from Japan 2
6. Kyoto - Zweigen 2 @ 2.40
 
 

Nothing to play today.  The start was good and don-t want to spoil everything by playing just  for the sake of the game. This is a big error I made many times in the past (probably all of us did it). If I have 48% ROI and found nothing good to play, why to play?
Yes, in my opinion this is the second big mistake a player can do - to consider that the money you just won are not yours and do not care if they are easy lost...
thecurlyone1 .. I never used PnL and to be honest I do not know what is good for. If you will have time please explain it or give me a link to understand what it is about.

It was a good selection again. Thank you for your support.
For me it is not a surprise. I used this strategy last season between March and the end of the season with more than 20% ROI.  I admit that overall, all stratgies I used togeter with my software gave me around -8% ROI over the same period  but this one with away selections has been extremely good. Will see next weeks how it works. 
Of course, at this odds, can be many loses in a row but let-s keep everything to be fun . 
I always said, just before placing the bet just think for a second how would you feel if lose the money. If you feel bad just consider a lower stake then think again.
For today I selected
5. Dover - Ebbsfleet 2 @ 2.49
Yesterday I placed at much more better price but this is the price this morning....I think it is still good to play
 
 
 

It was a good selection I think  but Legia played 77 minutes in 10 ....
For today I selected:
4. Osters IF - Falkenberg 2 @ 2.99
 
 
 

As I promised, I start today my strategy.. All the selections will be based on something similar with what I explained on previous posts,
The stake is 1 unit  for each game. Will be only 1,x,2, over or under  (because I do not have AH odds on my software yet). 
1. Osijek - Lok. Zagreb 2 @ 5.30 
2. Avai - Figueirense 2 @ 4.45.
 
 
 

Maybe I did not explain myself  good enugh. All PL users  that will request VIP license will receive it.

If you sent the error report, you will receive an answer to your email address.
Anyway, this was a problem between seasons if you do not update for a long time but it is now fixed. I recommend you to install the new season version. Your codes should be the same.
Regarding the VIP codes, of course if the number of requests will be much more then 2 I will give 1-2 more licenses for PL members.
On the other hand, the free version does not block access to most of the program as you said. Only if you consider less then 10% of the features "most of ". :))
 
 

The new season is almost here so I think it is time to bring some good news for those are implied in football statistics.
1.
 I have always said that my software is not perfect and there are a lot of things to improve or to correct.
For those that think that would do better using the same database I offer for free almost all my database.  
I attached an txt file with results from 74 leagues (45 countries) starting with 2004-2005 season for big leagues and from 2010-2011 for the lower leagues. There are also some new leagues with only 1-2 seasons back.
 
later edit : I am not allowed to attached .7z archive.... I will find another way
later edit : This is the link where you can download the database unti 31st of August
CGMBet database  (password: 108488)
The file contains not only results but stats data including goals minutes (only for selected leagues/seasons)
Please be aware:
not all leagues/seasons have full data   
I do not guarantee for any data in the attached file. You take it as it is. Probably more than 95% is correct but I cannot guarantee 100%
 
The columns are:  
1.       country
2.       season
3.       date
4.       time kick off
5.       round
6.       home team
7.       away team
8.       home team goals Full Time
9.       away team goals Full Time
10.   home team goals Half Time
11.   away team goals Half Time
12.   home team win odds
13.   draw odds
14.   away team odds
15.   over 2.5 goals odds
16.   under 2.5 goals odds
17.   ELO coeff home team
18.   ELO coef away team
19.   form Home team
20.   form Away team
21.   suth = shots Home team
22.   shots Away eam
23.   shots on target Home team
24.   shots on target Awat team
25.   corners home team
26.   corners away team
27.   fouls home team
28.   fouls away team
29.   yellow cards home team
30.   yellow cards away team
31.   ball possesion home team
32.   ball possesion away team
33.   goals scored home team / game
34.   goals conceded home team / game
35.   goals scored away team / game
36.   goals conceded away team / game
37.   minutes of goals home team
38.   minutes of goals away team
39.   state of the game  S= scheduled P=Postponed J= Played
 
2.
Starting with this month, for the entire season, until May next year, I will release again every month 2 free full-VIP license.  The rules are:
Write here (or send me a private message)  that you  would like to apply for a VIP license.
Every month on 5th day will give 2 VIP license . If there will be more than 2 users will consider  the date of registration on forum
After no more than 1 month I expect some feed-back, especially negative in order to improve the software.
 
3.
I added 14 new leagues
 
 
4.
Finally,   
It is possible now to go to Poisson directly from Rating V , with the values calculated for total goals (H+A) or just goals scored Home vs Away
Of course other adjustments are possible.
 
 

Few very useful features in Rating V. And please note that few other new features will be added soon.
There are so many and I hope will not miss something.
1. The most impotant is that will be few new columns - correct score (you can select on the right side to view or not ) and the places for the both teams.
2. The possibility to highlight the odds wth value between two numbers (not only bigger then .... as before)
3. Absolutely all the controls on the screen can be saved (then load) as default on the lower left corner
4. If you want to fine tune the values, the transfer to RATING M will be done with exactly the same values as in RATING V - season, ELO...ETC. No need to adjust in RATING M again. As you already knw, Rating M allows you to adjust the probabilities for goals scored (considering last moment events) in order to find values.

1. Egypt - Uruguay
Of course Uruguay has much more experience at WC, a much better team and do not think that will have problems today. The only problem is what to bet because the prices are too high. 
Finally,  my selection is  AH -1.5 Uruguay @ 2.67 Pinnacle
2. Morocco - Iran.
Probably at this moment Morocco has a better team but considering there is the first game and more experience for Iran at WC... Also I remember 2014 when they received ony one goal after first 2 games with Nigeria and Argentina (91 minute Messi).  It is not a easy team at all.
My selection is    Iran  @ 3.92 Pinnacle
3. Portugal - Spain
I do not think Morocco or Iran will create problems on the next games so I do not see any reason to force something today.  Just thinking about the next opponent Russia or Uruguay...but to early to choose.  
My selection is   Draw  @ 3.32 Pinnacle
   
 

I am not very sure it is exactly what are you looking for but I just presented few posts ago
If select a league on the left tree then click H2H button on menu bar will see something like picture below.
You can set now to see the percent of games where home/away teams scored first or scored first then scored again or received goal to be 1-1 ...etc...
It is possible to create more filters, for example for the home team I want to see how many games scored first when they had odds under 2.00
It happened on 50% of the games
If you have more questions please let me know
 

 
 
 

Hi Matthlock
First of all thank you for using, or trying to use, the software.  You pointed two weak points of the program also.
1. It is too complex at first sight ,but it is stated that is created for experienced users  
2. Has not a complete help system. You may find few tutorials and a help file also on my site  though. If you do not have the patience to see all the features presented here over the years, you may find on my forum a little bit better structured all the "new features".
Regarding your question: As you noticed, the software has a lot of features. Maybe too many. What I noticed over the years is that everyone has his own system/ideas and of course it is the best invented ever and will be a gold mine in short time. Of course almost all gold mines are something else but we start again with other system, of course much more "intelligent".
I just wanted to offer the tools to find and build systems for everyone. The systems can be created faster, have some AI behind, can be tested ..etc. That will not guarantee that will be good systems but at least the cycle is much more faster.  Of course with some tools, let say brushes, you may create a masterpiece or few lines just like me. 
a.  RATING  - this system was created with the first version of the software. It is based on ELO points but takes into account the recent form also, calculated based a special formula. As you see on the left part it allows you to set how much is ELO and how much is form in the final result.  The program allows you to see what happened last years with the same settings (odds, probabilities...etc).    The main problem is that if you change the default settings, it will take some minutes to recalculate, but sometimes may worth.
 
b. RATING M - this is my new favourite.  Has two parts. "Based on goals scored" and "Advanced Rating Maker".
First one is based, of course, on goals scored by similar teams (the same ELO coeff) on the last few seasons.  The program will show you what was the percent of each number of goals 0,1,2,3,4 for each team. Based on that, we can calculate all the odds (on the right side) and compare them with the odds offered.  The idea was to offer the possibility to adjust those percents to be closer to "real life". For example if home team has not 3 offensive players will go to adjust (make it smaller) the percents for 2,3,4,,,goals  and maybe to increase the percents for 0 and 1 goal. The same way if we know that will a rainy day or heavy pitch ....will increase 0, 1 ..etc...Will result other probabilities maybe closer to reality. This will offer us a better chance to predict the result.  
Advanced Rating Maker will create for you a system based on 5 elements, as you wish. For example will give you a score for home team considering "Home win percent","Goals scored at home","Ball possesion home+away"...etc.  The same for away team (other elements or the same). Finally will have two values for home and away teams that you can compare based what happened in the past with the same values and the same elements.
c. RATING -V is the rating system based on goals scored actually  but here you may see the probabilities for all games in a given period (not only one game), filter them ...etc then you can pass the selected game to "rating based on goals scored" for  deeper analise.
Of course it is not possible to explain all here but I will try to give details as much as possible. There are also some vIdeo-tutorials about the rating systems. You may find them on this thread or on my site. 
 
If you have other problems to clarify, just ask here.
 
 

Many complained that it takes some time to select their favorite leagues in the left side leagues tree.
With the help of the project's friend Scherzzo now it is possible, if you want, to have a short-cut to your favorite leagues like in the picture.
Will be much easier  to navigate now.


This is not deafult behaviour. If you want to see just your preferred leagues on the menu, go to SETTINGS, select TABLES button then add your favorite leagues there. From now on, if there will be at least one league in TABLES list the short-cut will appear on the left side, like in the picture

Yes, you will receive the second license for this month. Just install then click UPDATE to see your user code. Send it to me using the form on my CONTACT web page.
eckersley, please send me your user code. If I will not receive the code within next 48 hours, the license will be taken by another one.
I remember that I expect feed-back from the other who received free VIP license. Especially bad feed-back because would help me more.
 
 

Thank you maciasso.
Davymac, ElPrncipito007  just install the software and send me the user code using the form on my CONTACT web page.  Both of you will receive VIP licenses as soon as possible.
 
 
 

The licenses are released in the first 3 days of the month. If there will be more than 2 requests, then will give the licenses to the older users on forum (date of registration on forum)
Probably you will take one license. Just install the software, click the UPDATE button and follow the instructions.

Thank you dm85, I hope my tools will continue to be useful for you..
Now,
I added few useful features in Advanced Rating Maker:
First of all and most important, for the entire summer period, the Rating Maker is free to use
1. If you right click on the first table you may add the game to "My games" list.  This will allow you to keep the games you would like to follow and to check later.
2. It is possible now to load "My Games" and apply them the Rating Maker.
3. I separated head to head option. Now you can select home+away games (all games played between teams no matter the venue) or home vs away games (only games where home team played at home and the away team played away).

Hi Guys
After enquring here about the software I decided to purchase VIP and I have to give some respect to 'giraldi' I have spent a lot of time in the past trying to gather the information together and compare all the data which is massively time consuming I can now do it all in one place.
As 'giraldi' has said this is not a prediction software but a tool for statstics freaks. That being said it can help you to beat the bookies. This week I have recorded all the picks I have selected using the software. I have waged 112.7 Units over 95 games and I have a profit of 17.71  units giving me an ROI of 15.2%
Thanks 'giraldi' for the help and advice getting set up.
Now to find something to crunch basketball numbers!?
 

I have had this software for about four weeks and am still finding new uses. Initially I used it to save time on checking game prices, previous scores, under/overs and goal times.
As I use the software I can quickly compare the games on any day in a great deal of depth.
This evening four main games in play:-
19.15 Stuttgart v Union Berlin Germany 2
19.45 Eibar v Athletico Bilbao Spain 1
19.45 Newcastle v Preston England Championship
19.45 Pescara v Roma Italy 1
Looking at the odds for match and under/over 2,5. I eliminated the Eibar game as probably a low scoring game. Chose the other three games in over 1.5 & over 2.5 goals. I find it easier to monitor games if they are grouped as under/over 2.5. As I use Gruss to place the bets and for trading. I normally place bets on the > 1.5 to cover stake for the >2.5. A good result tonight with the games picked producing overs and the one eliminated only having one very late goal. It helps with only having four games.
On a Saturday/Sunday with many games to choose from I used to separate the games into
<2.5 odds range 1.55-1.70
>2.5    1.5-1.80
Live games to use as singles or roll up accumulators depending on the prices.I then group into 3x and 4x within the price bands.
Some will be used for trading or straight bets.
I have tried laying the first goal 0-10 mins now using the software but cannot always get correct odds as markets on Betfair outside of the main live games have poor liquidity.
The software allows me then to look at all the data to confirm the games to bet on.With time I will find lots more systems with some of the new features and just as important remove some that are not showing a profit.
Everybody should be able to use the software in a manner that they prefer. Above is examples of they way that I use it.
Thanks and good luck for the future
 

The Advanced Rating Maker has now the possibility to test your selections against past results.
As an example.
I set up a rating as follows:
For the home team:
1.  The percent of won games in the last 10 games at home   - 70%
2. The numbers of goals scored/game in the last 10 games at home - 30%
For the away team:
1.  The percent of lost games in the last 10 games at home   - 70%
2. The numbers of goals received/game in the last 10 games at home - 30%     
I selected on the right side only Premier League games, today then clicked CALCULATE
(Please note that now is possible to export the resulted table by clicking EXPORT button)
At this moment the bottom butons are not activated but if you select a game (I selected HULL - WATFORD) the bottom buttons are activated.
The values for selected game are 45 vs 69
Please note that greater number does not mean better. It is just a number and in this case it is worst if it is bigger actually.
After I select the interval +/- 5 points and "This season" clicked CALCULATE.
Please note that the system will calculate only the games where the home teams have the values between 40-50 and the away teams have the values between 64-74.
In the bottom grid will be presented all the games that met the conditions.
Under the grid are presented the possible results.
In this case home teams won 14 games out of 15 with a very good profit.
Please try this new powerful feature and report any error or unexpected result.

Tough decision to be made indeed, to not bet included. I am very disappointed I lost one of my three favourites – Roma (2 remains Ajax and Anderlecht)  

At first sight, without any closer  information, what to say?
           Schalke has some problems with only few points over relegation zone and 2 games against 2 “colleagues”  just around the EL game against Ajax.
Ajax stays OK and has full power activated for the finish anyway just few points behind Feyenoord . If Ajax beat Feyenoord on 2nd April will also beat Shalke.      
  Anderlecht, another team on very good shape against a team that does not feel very well. But here the last word has KikoCy.  I will back Anderlecht anyway  
            We can say that Genk and Celta finished the problems in their leagues so all the attention is on CL.  A kind of  lottery in my opinion so if I will bet I will choose the better price.  Genk @6.00 is very good
             I have no idea about Lyon-Besiktas but the odds 1.53  I do not like. Depends what I will find until middle of April I will  take my decision. Anyway 6.50 is huge. Lyon is not a super team at the moment  ( au contraire ) and  Besiktas is not a small nor easy team …

Tough decision to be made indeed, to not bet included. I am very disappointed I lost one of my three favourites – Roma (2 remains Ajax and Anderlecht)  

At first sight, without any closer  information, what to say?
           Schalke has some problems with only few points over relegation zone and 2 games against 2 “colleagues”  just around the EL game against Ajax.
Ajax stays OK and has full power activated for the finish anyway just few points behind Feyenoord . If Ajax beat Feyenoord on 2nd April will also beat Shalke.      
  Anderlecht, another team on very good shape against a team that does not feel very well. But here the last word has KikoCy.  I will back Anderlecht anyway  
            We can say that Genk and Celta finished the problems in their leagues so all the attention is on CL.  A kind of  lottery in my opinion so if I will bet I will choose the better price.  Genk @6.00 is very good
             I have no idea about Lyon-Besiktas but the odds 1.53  I do not like. Depends what I will find until middle of April I will  take my decision. Anyway 6.50 is huge. Lyon is not a super team at the moment  ( au contraire ) and  Besiktas is not a small nor easy team …

I noticed  increased interest for the ALERTS section so, following a user suggestion, I added few new features.
Please note that all these are included in the free version!
First of all, this section may be used to see what happened in the games with a big favorite. I had no other choice but the odds to consider who is the favorite.
For example if you would like to see what what games ended draw this season (but you may select all database) in Premier League considering the game where the favorites had odds under 1.50.  You would have had a profit around 20% (depends on the time when bet ) if you had bet on draw!
Also you may see in the picture (you see only the latest games - you have to scrool to see all ) the games that
1. Qualified for the possible upset (draw in this case) - like Chelsea-Swansea, Everton- Sunderland...and the last one Liverpool-Burnley
2. Actually happened - like Manchester - Bournemuth and Manchester  - Stoke ...
3. The next games that qualify for possible upsets in the selected conditions like Middlesboro - Manchester on 19.03

Very good approach. Congratulation.
Another proof that knowledge closely a team makes the difference. Many years ago I started a project on a smaller forum. Made a team and each guy had in responsibility one team. His mission was to be the shadow of the team. He knew everything about the players, manager...if the keeper had an affair with the manager's wife..absolutely all. Now, when one team appeared on schedule the guy were the "primadona" and give as good info. 
The idea was that you, as a isolate player do not have the time resources to know too much...but together is something else.
 
On the other hand if the games will be played again tonight I would say  the same things and I will play the same :))
 
 

Very good approach. Congratulation.
Another proof that knowledge closely a team makes the difference. Many years ago I started a project on a smaller forum. Made a team and each guy had in responsibility one team. His mission was to be the shadow of the team. He knew everything about the players, manager...if the keeper had an affair with the manager's wife..absolutely all. Now, when one team appeared on schedule the guy were the "primadona" and give as good info. 
The idea was that you, as a isolate player do not have the time resources to know too much...but together is something else.
 
On the other hand if the games will be played again tonight I would say  the same things and I will play the same :))