giraldi

I think it is a very important topic.
Until one of the experienced guys will help us with the answer I will say my opinion.
 
I think that one of the mistake the player does is to increase the stake too early.  We have to understand that betting is a game of probabilities and the probability to lose all bets for the rest of our life is not 0. It is extremely small but is not 0. Of course this is an extreme example..
The most logical answer is to increase to 2 units when your bank is 200, in order to keep 1% from bank. Probably this would say most of the players.
The second logical answer would be to never increase the stake,  and to save every 100 you get. Probably this would say just a few.
 
I prefer a combination: I would keep the stake 1 until I have 300, then save 100 and increase the stake to 2. 
Now I have 200 and stake 2, still 1% but have 100 saved (my real pofit). A few comments here: Another mistake can be done is to think that the balance you see on your bookie, under your account are yours. No, the money are yours only when save them to your bank account.
 
Will keep it until I have 400, then save 100 and increase to 3...
And so on  
 
As I said, this is what I think in this Monday early morning, the worst hours for my brain in the entire week

I think it is a very important topic.
Until one of the experienced guys will help us with the answer I will say my opinion.
 
I think that one of the mistake the player does is to increase the stake too early.  We have to understand that betting is a game of probabilities and the probability to lose all bets for the rest of our life is not 0. It is extremely small but is not 0. Of course this is an extreme example..
The most logical answer is to increase to 2 units when your bank is 200, in order to keep 1% from bank. Probably this would say most of the players.
The second logical answer would be to never increase the stake,  and to save every 100 you get. Probably this would say just a few.
 
I prefer a combination: I would keep the stake 1 until I have 300, then save 100 and increase the stake to 2. 
Now I have 200 and stake 2, still 1% but have 100 saved (my real pofit). A few comments here: Another mistake can be done is to think that the balance you see on your bookie, under your account are yours. No, the money are yours only when save them to your bank account.
 
Will keep it until I have 400, then save 100 and increase to 3...
And so on  
 
As I said, this is what I think in this Monday early morning, the worst hours for my brain in the entire week

Should be OK now with the "upsets" section.
I managed last week to check the Brasilian Serie A, last 6 seasons data, and I think it is good enough now to be added to the Live Stats software (96.45% goals minutes data accuracy - will be futher improved). More features will be added soon to Live Stats as I decided to focus on this for the next months, to be more helpful in preparing the next days.
Of course the 50% discount coupon CGMPL1901 for PL registered members is still in place for the entire next season   
 

Just checked and the code "CGMPL1901" is active and assure 50% off.
I do not exclude a temporary problem. Please check again
 
 

I added Ireland , both leagues for the next season. If you notice some problems please let me know
 
Now,
New features in Live Statistics!
1 Live odds for selected games , with green in (D)ata column. They are just for orientation but good to see if there may be value with your bookie. You have to check it manually.
2 Red card alert for selected games. Of course if will have red cards we have to be suspicious about past stats.
3 Highlight values if odds and sample are good enough. The values will be highlighted if there may be value, but only if the sample value is over the value you set.
 

 

I update the database with the "January-December" leagues , before 1st of March.  This happens every year.. they start earlier so will lose 1-2 rounds.
I have to do changes in the program for the summer leagues and do not want to work separately for each league (some of them are not ready)

The new video tutorial present the Rating V & M sections of the software.

Rating (V)alue allows to find value bets based on number of goals scored in previous games. It also allows you to adjust predicted percents based on last info like attack or defence strength, weather condition..etc

Rating (M)aker allows to create your own rating system based on up to 5 criteria like number of games lost, number of under 2.5 games, goals scored etc
 

You have many options to use AH stats already but will improve this kind of features.
For example see the picture below:
I set home/away values
1. for home teams the percent of games won with the handicap -1.5
2. for away games te percent of games lost with the handicap +1.5
then I set to be highlighted values over 30% . Where you will see "yellow" on both value (or very high values on home or away value) probably deserve to take a look to see if indeed home teams can win with at least 2 goals difference... 
As I said every time, the stats are very good to check and I can not imagine betting or trading without prepare a game checking all the possible stats
BUT
never bet only based on stats - check the last info as deep as possible
THEN
make your decision based on your strategy and always bet  what you can afford to loose. (That means to close your eyes then think you lost the bet - if you still are OK place the bet )
Just wanted to stress that because there are still guys that think that a machine (or software) can bet by itself and win money  without human intervention. 

You have many options to use AH stats already but will improve this kind of features.
For example see the picture below:
I set home/away values
1. for home teams the percent of games won with the handicap -1.5
2. for away games te percent of games lost with the handicap +1.5
then I set to be highlighted values over 30% . Where you will see "yellow" on both value (or very high values on home or away value) probably deserve to take a look to see if indeed home teams can win with at least 2 goals difference... 
As I said every time, the stats are very good to check and I can not imagine betting or trading without prepare a game checking all the possible stats
BUT
never bet only based on stats - check the last info as deep as possible
THEN
make your decision based on your strategy and always bet  what you can afford to loose. (That means to close your eyes then think you lost the bet - if you still are OK place the bet )
Just wanted to stress that because there are still guys that think that a machine (or software) can bet by itself and win money  without human intervention. 

------------

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This thread is approved by Paul Ross Some of you already know me because of the few threads that I have started on this forum, most related statistics. Being a big fan of statistics and with some experience in betting I created a small program to help me in finding good matches. Several friends have seen it and wanted it and so on. Now there are hundreds of users all over the world that find my software very useful. The small program has turned into a very complex program still developing. If I had written all the options I would wrote few days so better put a picture of one of the sections. It is "UPCOMINGS" section where future matches can be studied statistically. What you see is about 5% of the features my software offers. Also will find for free over 115 000 records with results, with minutes, from more than 30 leagues for over 5-10 years (depends on the league) As I said 90% of the program is free, including the update of the database. The remaining 10% are reserved for the so-called VIP users, those who have contributed over the years with advice, suggestions, tests and of course with donations. Paul Ross suggested to offer 10 VIP licenses for PL members. I offer 20 licenses VIP for the first 20 users who ask for a license but with the request, if possible, to write here a brief review of the program. Just download the software (the signature link), install it, click the update button and send me your user code. On comment field just write “PL member�. I will announce here when the list is full Anyway please note that non-VIP users have also access to a lot of powerful features. Now, to be very clear – I have enough experience to know that any kind of software is not enough to have success but for sure it helps a lot. My program is not a prediction system. Will not bet instead of you. The final decision is yours after analyze all the information. I will not write here more about the program, I am sure it will speak for itself. I just will answer your questions.
------------

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No opinions here?
First of all I do not agree that Paraguay...Brasilian Serie B.. are small leagues if we look from finding value point of view.  In my opinion small leagues are those leagues where the players interest was and it is minimum, not too much money involved and the bookies have not enough data from the past to make good odds for them.
Anyway, to say that is easier to find value in the small leagues is the same thing like you say that is easier to win to LOTO if play 2 tickets than if you play just one. Your chances are double but still....
My answer is YES, it is easier to find values in small leagues because bookies have not enough data, there are not enough players to bet on opposite markets (like Home, Draw, Away..etc). They offer relative odds based on what they have with the hope there will be enough players on all markets to have a win-win-win situation. 
So, YES, if you have genuine info about games in lower leagues - this is a huge advantage over the bookies and over the other players. Of course it is "relatively" hard to have only you (or just a few) info about Reak Madrid but maybe only a few will know that a small team from the next town just celebrated something and the food was not so good ...   and maybe that goalkeeper had a argue with 2 colegues due to a girl...etc.
So the final answer is YES but if the value is based on real info (not statistics or something else)

------------

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-----------
This thread is approved by Paul Ross Some of you already know me because of the few threads that I have started on this forum, most related statistics. Being a big fan of statistics and with some experience in betting I created a small program to help me in finding good matches. Several friends have seen it and wanted it and so on. Now there are hundreds of users all over the world that find my software very useful. The small program has turned into a very complex program still developing. If I had written all the options I would wrote few days so better put a picture of one of the sections. It is "UPCOMINGS" section where future matches can be studied statistically. What you see is about 5% of the features my software offers. Also will find for free over 115 000 records with results, with minutes, from more than 30 leagues for over 5-10 years (depends on the league) As I said 90% of the program is free, including the update of the database. The remaining 10% are reserved for the so-called VIP users, those who have contributed over the years with advice, suggestions, tests and of course with donations. Paul Ross suggested to offer 10 VIP licenses for PL members. I offer 20 licenses VIP for the first 20 users who ask for a license but with the request, if possible, to write here a brief review of the program. Just download the software (the signature link), install it, click the update button and send me your user code. On comment field just write “PL member�. I will announce here when the list is full Anyway please note that non-VIP users have also access to a lot of powerful features. Now, to be very clear – I have enough experience to know that any kind of software is not enough to have success but for sure it helps a lot. My program is not a prediction system. Will not bet instead of you. The final decision is yours after analyze all the information. I will not write here more about the program, I am sure it will speak for itself. I just will answer your questions.
------------

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A very small profit yesterday, but still profit
My selections for today:
 
For the Away strategy (34 units played, 3.38 units won, +9.94%)
A35: Mattersburg  - St. Polten  2 @ 3.58
A36: Legia  - Wisla  2 @ 4.95
A37: Elfsborg - Sundsvall   2 @ 2.95
 
For the Home strategy (11 units played, 11 units lost, - 100.%)
It is against odds to lost 11 in a row . Will take a few days break here
 
For the Draw strategy (14 units played, 0.92 units lost, -6.57%)
D15: Betis - Valladoid X @ 3.97
D16: Zaragoza - Tenerife II X @ 3.14
 

My selections for today:
 
For Away strategy (31 units played, 2.63 units won, +8.48%)
A32: Kaiserslautern  - Uerdingen 05   2 @ 3.44
A33: Shalke 04  - Bremen  2 @ 3.75
A34: Barcelona - Sevilla  2 @ 8.16
 
For Home strategy (10 units played, 10 units lost, - 100.%)
H11: Aluminij K- Domzale 1 @ 3.60
 
For Draw strategy (11 units played, 1.64 units lost, -14.91%)
D12: Valencia - Leganes X @ 3.72
D13: Wiedenbruck - Cologne II X @ 3.56
D14: Vila Nova - Juventude X @ 3.22

My selections for today:
 
For Away strategy (18 units played, 0.95 units lost, - 5.28%)
A19: Rochdale - Portsmouth 2 @ 2.60
A20: Rapid Vienna - Polten 2 @ 5.05 !! (THIS IS MY FAVOURITE TODAY)
A21: Dukla - Fastav 2 @ 2.48
 
For Home strategy (4 units played, 4 units lost, - 100.%)
Here I will be patient, will not force...will play with attention until will come the first success (based on one of my friend prediction this will happen around 15th of March next year. Very nice guy.)
H5: Colchester - Bury 1 @ 2.41
 
And...... I intoduce today Draw strategy!!!!
The selections are made based on number of goals scored so far (if both teams scored under a specific number of goals/game then the game are good to go ) and the profile of the team (their records show an appetit for draws). And some other minor ingredients as every master chief uses  :))
D1: Grimsby - Morecambe X @ 3.10
D2: Birmingham - Ipswich X @ 3.15

Agree with you on the luck factor. The thing is luck can work for you and work against you, so like giraldi has said, over long time the luck factor would have no significant effect on the final outcome. 

For today my selection is
A13.   Vejle - Esbjerg 2 @ 3.24
Because starting tomorrow I will play similar strategies but on other markets I will write "A" for "Away" strategy, "H"  for "Home" , "D" for "Draw" strategy...etc. Thats why the current selection is "A13"
Will be also here, in this thread but just want to keep separate control on each market to see where is more proffitable. The idea is the same - will try to find "home teams"..."draw teams"..etc. Please read one of my previous message.
 

The thing is, it certainly could be entirely random over such a small sample, or (most likely) down to a combination of how the team has played but with a considerable element of luck thrown in. Making a judgement that places the right value on what the stats are telling you without overvaluing them (i.e. filtering out the luck) is the hard part.
Most people underestimate the extent that luck plays in the outcome of football matches. There's a saying that an infinite number of monkeys bashing away at typewriters would eventually produce the complete works of Shakespeare. Are football teams most like actors following a script or monkeys hammering a typewriter? Probably a bit of both but more of the latter than most people allow for.
So go for it but question what the stats are telling you.

Mirco, just sent you a message with a short description about the filter I used.
Harry_rag, thank you for your message. I aggree with you regarding luck in betting but on the same time I strongly believe that we have to forget about luck if we want to improve our play.
We can speak about luck when we are talking about a game but not when we are talking about enough bets over a long enough period of time. We all know that won/lost games in 90 +4 minutes..impossible games in last minutes..etc but of course we are built to remember better the negative expereinces. I just want to say that over a long enough period of time the luck has zero influence in betting. 
More than that,  at the moment a player will forget about luck and focus only on strategy, money management, patience...etc will be surprised how much will improve the play.
It is exactly like in Backgammon. I am now a more then decent player but I improved my play only when I discovered myself thay Backgammon is not about luck but it is about skill. Of course I can beat the world champion in a one point game but in 21 points game I have no chance because the luck has almost 0 influence and remains only skill.   On the same way you can win or lose a bet because luck but on long periods is another story.
I also agree that my example could not be necessary "not random"  but the probability for a team to beat a few better teams in row with luck is extremely low so we can assume that it was not random but something happens there. 
I hope my message is understable for native English speakers...:)
 
 

After 12 games I lost 0.09  (-0.75% ROI).
I think it is a good start as soon as I do not have enough data yet for most of the leagues.
I am confident that ROI will be around 10% soon, after will found out  the "away teams" for the current season.
 
OK,  I will telll you one of my theories I have to check.
If we consider any season as a movie, every year we watch the same movie, the same script, almost the same actors (we have a few promoted/relegated teams..etc) but the actors play each year other role.
If we look back we can easy identifya few "roles" and I will come back with examples. One of the role is "away team" - this is a medium/decent team that make the life very hard for all home teams. I do not know - it is about the way the team is build and are aranged in the field, the players, the manager's ideas..I do not know but they are very hard to beat when play away. (and almost in all cases they are loosing many points at home)
For example take a look at Gimnastic (Spain 2 league) last year. After 10 rounds we already seen that beated in less than 2 months, in Octomber and November, away, Cordoba, Valladoid, Numancia.. This could not be random. Until the end of the season they were placed 14 but lost away only 1 game against top 6. The profit would have been more than 250% .... This is what I call an "away team"
The same way, we have "home team", "relegated for sure team"' ..etc you can say more.
I do not want to develop the idea here and now but of course if we can identify this pairs team-role as soon as possible in the season will have a big advantage,
Of course I am open for any comments/opinions
 
 

For today I found 
10. Stoke - Swansea 2 @ 4.52
11. WBA - Bristol 2 @ 4.27
12. Dresden - Hamburg 2 @ 2.36
The odds are pretty big but can be played with a small handicap also if you are not comfortable with that. On the other hand don-t be afraid of odds. They are just the other users opinion about the probability to happen the event and their opinion is not necessary the best one, especially when there is a large majority.  In betting, one of the best thing can happen is to be "on the other side".
I am working to find a similar strategy for Home win and for the next weekend will start, in the same thread, the same strategy but for Home win market. 
Away win strategy seems decent until now.. but I have to take care because the number of games is very small and the temptations are extremely big ...:)
 
 

For today I found 
10. Stoke - Swansea 2 @ 4.52
11. WBA - Bristol 2 @ 4.27
12. Dresden - Hamburg 2 @ 2.36
The odds are pretty big but can be played with a small handicap also if you are not comfortable with that. On the other hand don-t be afraid of odds. They are just the other users opinion about the probability to happen the event and their opinion is not necessary the best one, especially when there is a large majority.  In betting, one of the best thing can happen is to be "on the other side".
I am working to find a similar strategy for Home win and for the next weekend will start, in the same thread, the same strategy but for Home win market. 
Away win strategy seems decent until now.. but I have to take care because the number of games is very small and the temptations are extremely big ...:)
 
 

After 7 games I am back where I started but still a small proffit. +6%.
Since almost all leagues played just a few games, very hard to find games for my strategy.
8. Ostersund - Malmo 2 @ 2.11
9. Niigata - Zweigen 2 @ 2.72
 
 

After 7 games I am back where I started but still a small proffit. +6%.
Since almost all leagues played just a few games, very hard to find games for my strategy.
8. Ostersund - Malmo 2 @ 2.11
9. Niigata - Zweigen 2 @ 2.72
 
 

Thank you harry_rag but it was a lost for my strategy
Yes, I said that I will play only 1,x,2, (more 2 ) but I would strongly recommend AH.
I play this way because my software has not odds for AH and don-t want to get complicated. Probably taking into account the odds and the winning rate of 5 out of 6 for DC probably the proffit would have been a little bit bigger but not with much.
You gave me an idea. I will imagine a procedure to compare what you played with what would have been if you played something else (but very close to original play).  I am not sure I am very clear.  Imagine you can see a graph with your profit after you played 20 games away team win. Then, over it a graph with what would have been if had played x2  and so on... I think would have been very useful...
My selection for today is from Superettan
7. Orgryte - Osters 2 @ 3.14