giraldi

I don-t think you will find many games where both teams had 2 draws in a row at home (away)
 
In the UPCOMING section search for games, (I set the next 5 days) where both home/away had 2 draws in the last 2 games at home/away. Similar you find games only one of the team (home or away) had 2 draws.
I found 3 games, 2 of them in Spain 2   (check the first picture)
 

 
So, I will check, using the Advanced Goals Statistics what happens after is draw at HT in Spain 2, since 2005  (check the second picture )
 

 
The same way, you can play with it.
You can set in the AGS module even the teams you want (instead of the entire league) to see what happens.
Etc...
 
 

Understood now.
It-s not possible directly but a workaround. I will post some pictures with explanations  later or tomorrow morning

I know that the full program version can be overwhelming for those just starting out in software that processes data.   So, I created a version called "CGMBet Basic", with the basic tools from Tables, H2H, Upcoming, Statistics. Yet, it-s still more than you will find around.  


 
 
 

Using the new features in UPCOMING, step by step:
 
Only games where home&away teams had the last 10 games (H vs A):
> 50% O2.5,
> 70% games scored
> 70% games conceded
Finally, only games where O2.5 odds>1.8
 
Warning: there are no tips or strategies but just an example of using.

 
 

There is already 60% off.  The discount can not be applied again.  ( 50% off from  60%? off)
 

It-s extremely hard without results, numbers, tables, statistics.
So, just to see some random results and standings I created a kind of game.
It is about a virtual league. You can create a 20 teams league then play the season round by round or even minute by minute.  The goals are scored based on what happened in similar played real games.
In the SETTINGS menu you can choose 20 teams then a virtual season is generated when you save the teams.
Finally, select the Virtual League like any other league and play it round by round. It-s possible to choose a team to follow (highlighted with bold font). Just for fun I add the possibility to "help" your favourite team with ELO points
In the last picture I simulated Premier League with Barca, Real, PSG and Bayern.  It was very interesting to follow Liverpool until the last round :))
United and City under Wolves? A few years ago what were the odds for Leicester to get the league? :))
 
I admit this is childish,no need to say it   :))
 
Stay safe ! 
 



 

A tutorial to introduce the new Early Alert software Will learn to set up an alert and to backtest it. Many advanced users consider the backtesting module as one of the most powerful modules I have created so far. (and more features are coming).
 

Most of us can't see all the matches played until a certain moment and make decisions for the next match based strictly on the past results and not on what really happened on the field.
It is impossible to fix it but we can try something.
Example:....
Round 17: C. Palace - Brighton 1-1
Shots on target: 4-10
Ball possession: 34-66
Don-t you think that C. Palace - Brighton 1-3
would have been a better result to be considered for the next decisions?
 

Most of us can't see all the matches played until a certain moment and make decisions for the next match based strictly on the past results and not on what really happened on the field.
It is impossible to fix it but we can try something.
Example:....
Round 17: C. Palace - Brighton 1-1
Shots on target: 4-10
Ball possession: 34-66
Don-t you think that C. Palace - Brighton 1-3
would have been a better result to be considered for the next decisions?
 

Following a few suggestions, I made a zoom to 2016 season and added Leicester.
Extremely interesting.
All big 5 dropped below 2000 ELO points at the same time (probability < 0.5 %), exactly when Leicester went to it's maximum ever, a little bit over big 5 average.

Another interesting picture:
I generated the ELO graph for top 5 teams in Premier, starting with 2005 season, almost 600 games.
1. There is a general downward trend, obviously.
2. Without underestimating the merits of Leicester, something happened to top5 in the 2016 season.
 

Probably most of us are wondering if the (successful) strategies available before the lockdown will work after the season is resumed   First of all,  my opinion is that during the lockdown was a bad idea to bet unless you have info about the teams involved in Belarusian second league. On other words, it would have been a kind of lotto for me but for a guy that lives in Belarus would have been a gold mine. As he knows the teams and the players will find easier the value especially because there will be a lot of guys like me that don-t even can read correctly the teams name.       Now, regarding the betting after the lockdown, I was curious what happened last 10 seasons considering the games where the home team have not played for at least 2 weeks. (there is no data for a larger interval between games) Because I have the data I calculated what happened if the interval between 2 games was under 3 games.   I noted T1 - top teams  ELO>2000 at the game's moment T2 - average teams  ELO>1700 at the game's moment T3 - bottom teams   Here is the graph only for "Home Win" market. How to read it, see the highlighted selection Please note that T1-T3 and T3-T1 had not so many games but for example, T1-T2 had a good sample.   (T1-T2)  means all the games between (Top teams - Average teams) played last 10 seasons   1. The first column (blue) - 74.47% of total games were won by the home teams   2. The second column(red) - 77.59% of the games were home team played the last games less than 3 days ago were won by the home team   3. The third column (green) - 55.56%  of the games were home team played the last games more than 15 days ago were won by the home team         As a first conclusion it-s easy to see that if the interval between games is  reduced, the top teams won more games than usual  but if the interval is larger  they won just a little bit over 50%   Now, just after the lockdown, we are in the column 3 situation so have to try to find value in laying top teams. After 1-2 rounds will be in the column 2 situation and for sure will try to back the top teams.   Of course, will need to check all the available info but I think this will be the trend.

I would say, based on my own experience that is extremely complicated to calculate statistically  how will be affected a team if one/two players are missing
What I tried a few years ago it was to record all minutes played by each player, the results...etc. Then to compare what happened when the player was on the field with the games they were not.
Soon, I realised this is not enough anyway. I find out that if a player is missing, there is extremely important (again) to see combinations of players. I found out that some players play much better and the team had better results if other 2-3 players were present together...etc. Finally, I gave up because there would have been too many combinations and the results not sure.
 
On the other hand, what I would try is to back the team where very important players are missing at the right time.
Why? You talked about value. Let-s think that at one moment the odds are stable. What happens right after the information that 2 important players will not play? For sure many many will try to back the opponent team as soon as possible and they move the odds far more then really is needed. Is like an overreaction given by the first impulse.
Of course, in a short time, the odds will be stabilized again but we need to catch the better odds to back the team with the missing players.  In my opinion, there are greater chances to be value.
It is a very common situation when after a team remains without 1 key player (red card during the game or before the game..etc ) , the manager tells to remaining players that need to give more on the field to compensate the missing player.  Almost every time, especially top teams,  play better than before.   This is like a joke but I think is not far from reality

I would say, based on my own experience that is extremely complicated to calculate statistically  how will be affected a team if one/two players are missing
What I tried a few years ago it was to record all minutes played by each player, the results...etc. Then to compare what happened when the player was on the field with the games they were not.
Soon, I realised this is not enough anyway. I find out that if a player is missing, there is extremely important (again) to see combinations of players. I found out that some players play much better and the team had better results if other 2-3 players were present together...etc. Finally, I gave up because there would have been too many combinations and the results not sure.
 
On the other hand, what I would try is to back the team where very important players are missing at the right time.
Why? You talked about value. Let-s think that at one moment the odds are stable. What happens right after the information that 2 important players will not play? For sure many many will try to back the opponent team as soon as possible and they move the odds far more then really is needed. Is like an overreaction given by the first impulse.
Of course, in a short time, the odds will be stabilized again but we need to catch the better odds to back the team with the missing players.  In my opinion, there are greater chances to be value.
It is a very common situation when after a team remains without 1 key player (red card during the game or before the game..etc ) , the manager tells to remaining players that need to give more on the field to compensate the missing player.  Almost every time, especially top teams,  play better than before.   This is like a joke but I think is not far from reality

If you cared to read, you'd have noticed CGMBet is not prediction site/program at all.

Looks like an impressive piece of sosftware.
What is the predictivity value it scores though ?
Read about predictivity values and benchmarks here:
 


I don't mean to be critical but I am critical of everything, because our task (to beat the bookies) is difficult, like the legendary hunting for the snark.
It depends on this:
Who are our opponents ?
Let me tell you a story.
Summer of 1986, Mexico world cup, early group stage. I go to a large department store for shopping, in Athens-Greece. At the exit they were giving the customers a piece of paper saying "predict todays match and enter our great competition". The prize was a motorbike and the match to guess was Costa Rica v. Scotland. So I thought "everyone will go for Scotland here, they are respected as a European force and they recently beat Greece in the preliminaries, but they have some problems in the scoring department and the Costa Ricans will defend heroically". So I ticked the draw box. 
The match ended in a goalless draw so next morning I went to the shop to see what happened. What happened was that I was one of only eight who guessed correctly.
Did n't win the bike but one among eight was impressive - the number of customers the previous day must have been 1000 and more, it was summer sales period as well.
But these people were housewives, girls, grannies and so on. They did n't know about football.
So my opponents were weak. If I was to bet against them everyday I would surely make lots of easy money !
In the real world of betting it can never be like that. And indeed after I left the shop when I entered the competition, before going home I went to some football agent shops out of curiosity to see what they thought about Costa Rica versus Scotland. There it was different. The predictions were evenly matched between Scotland and the draw, with some 15% going for Costa Rica to win.
So this proves to you then that it is all about the opposition. We want to outclass the bookies like I did with the customers of that department store !
But this is an uphill struggle and although the efforts of the statisticians and software makers are commendable, they should be able to beat some quite difficult benchamrks in order to have any impact.

Last weekend, a colour blind user told me that couldn't distinguish between wins and draws and asked me if it is a chance to do something about. I did not feel very comfortable because I should think about this limitation earlier so I created a new tool that allows him, and everyone else,  to change the colours across the software.
It is very easy now to set the colours you want.  Here is just a random example.
 

 

These days CGMBET celebrates 9 years since the first international version.
The first versions of Home and Tables pages in the pictures below. ?
And of course, as every year, big discounts on the site, for absolutely anything.


 

Yes, it was not very difficult and this new feature helps a lot the upsets hunters
It is possible now to save/load the default settings. (please use with caution as it was not time to test it completely)
 
I noticed lately that many advanced users are interested in the Upsets module. Not only because it allows to check when happened, the teams that did it more then another..etc but also allows you to see if would have been a good idea to back or to lay upsets in different leagues
In the example below I checked the Premier where the favourites, with odds <2.00, did not win away. (with green are the next games where big favourites play away)
How to read the results: In 48 possible upsets, 19 happened to be upsets and our return would have been approximative equal with the total stake
I have check all the big leagues and can tell that only Spain (because of Barca) has been profitable to back the big underdog at home.
 

The EXPORT is very flexible now and can export almost everything in XLS or CSV.
As users requested, I added the teams' codes in order to handle in their own projects the teams' names changes.
Chile, Ireland 1,2 and Japan 1,2 are ready for the next season!
 

Only1woz, thank you
the new fixtures are usually added with around 1 week before. Prbably this saturday  your preffered league will be there.
 
Now, about a big improvement in the Tables section:
The old table can be extended/collapsed now to see the opponent's in the home vs away tables
Ex: Hoffenheim has the next game away with Freiburg. We see at a glance that did better away since Freiburg did worse at home comparing to overall results
Might be very useful
 

Yes, Today 3 out of 6 with more than 55% yield
 
Last 30 days
More than 25% in 50 games in all markets
More than 100% in 20 games in DRAW market
It is too good..don-t know what to say. Check the Suggestions module but keep calm, look for info then make your own decision.
 

Yes, Today 3 out of 6 with more than 55% yield
 
Last 30 days
More than 25% in 50 games in all markets
More than 100% in 20 games in DRAW market
It is too good..don-t know what to say. Check the Suggestions module but keep calm, look for info then make your own decision.
 

Excellent results for the Suggestions module over the week-end (18 games +35% yield), again, but I will not insist because there is not any intention to give tips but just a few games to think about, to dig deeper and to make the best decision.
 
Many asked if possible to back-test the filters they created in the UPCOMING section. The answer is YES, but it is not so obvious (my bad) so I just wanted to introduce a new video-tutorial that will learn you how to back test the filters.
I considered a very simple case when I am interested to check what would have been the results last month if I had bed on home teams, within "My Leagues" list, based on the following filter:
1.  Home team won at least 50% of the home games against similar opponents to the current opponent
2. Away team lost at least 50% of the away teams against similar opponents to the current opponent
If it is still something not clear please let me know.
 
 
 
 

Excellent results for the Suggestions module over the week-end (18 games +35% yield), again, but I will not insist because there is not any intention to give tips but just a few games to think about, to dig deeper and to make the best decision.
 
Many asked if possible to back-test the filters they created in the UPCOMING section. The answer is YES, but it is not so obvious (my bad) so I just wanted to introduce a new video-tutorial that will learn you how to back test the filters.
I considered a very simple case when I am interested to check what would have been the results last month if I had bed on home teams, within "My Leagues" list, based on the following filter:
1.  Home team won at least 50% of the home games against similar opponents to the current opponent
2. Away team lost at least 50% of the away teams against similar opponents to the current opponent
If it is still something not clear please let me know.