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giraldi

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  1. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from Lameer half in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    It-s extremely hard without results, numbers, tables, statistics.
    So, just to see some random results and standings I created a kind of game.
    It is about a virtual league. You can create a 20 teams league then play the season round by round or even minute by minute.  The goals are scored based on what happened in similar played real games.
    In the SETTINGS menu you can choose 20 teams then a virtual season is generated when you save the teams.
    Finally, select the Virtual League like any other league and play it round by round. It-s possible to choose a team to follow (highlighted with bold font). Just for fun I add the possibility to "help" your favourite team with ELO points
    In the last picture I simulated Premier League with Barca, Real, PSG and Bayern.  It was very interesting to follow Liverpool until the last round :))
    United and City under Wolves? A few years ago what were the odds for Leicester to get the league? :))
     
    I admit this is childish,no need to say it   :))
     
    Stay safe ! 
     



     
  2. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from thecurlyone1 in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    A tutorial to introduce the new Early Alert software Will learn to set up an alert and to backtest it. Many advanced users consider the backtesting module as one of the most powerful modules I have created so far. (and more features are coming).
     
  3. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from axel in Betting after lockdown   
    Most of us can't see all the matches played until a certain moment and make decisions for the next match based strictly on the past results and not on what really happened on the field.
    It is impossible to fix it but we can try something.
    Example:....
    Round 17: C. Palace - Brighton 1-1
    Shots on target: 4-10
    Ball possession: 34-66
    Don-t you think that C. Palace - Brighton 1-3
    would have been a better result to be considered for the next decisions?
     

  4. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from Zico10 in Betting after lockdown   
    Most of us can't see all the matches played until a certain moment and make decisions for the next match based strictly on the past results and not on what really happened on the field.
    It is impossible to fix it but we can try something.
    Example:....
    Round 17: C. Palace - Brighton 1-1
    Shots on target: 4-10
    Ball possession: 34-66
    Don-t you think that C. Palace - Brighton 1-3
    would have been a better result to be considered for the next decisions?
     

  5. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from robotzel78 in Betting after lockdown   
    Following a few suggestions, I made a zoom to 2016 season and added Leicester.
    Extremely interesting.
    All big 5 dropped below 2000 ELO points at the same time (probability < 0.5 %), exactly when Leicester went to it's maximum ever, a little bit over big 5 average.

  6. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from axel in Betting after lockdown   
    Another interesting picture:
    I generated the ELO graph for top 5 teams in Premier, starting with 2005 season, almost 600 games.
    1. There is a general downward trend, obviously.
    2. Without underestimating the merits of Leicester, something happened to top5 in the 2016 season.
     

  7. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from axel in Betting after lockdown   
    Probably most of us are wondering if the (successful) strategies available before the lockdown will work after the season is resumed   First of all,  my opinion is that during the lockdown was a bad idea to bet unless you have info about the teams involved in Belarusian second league. On other words, it would have been a kind of lotto for me but for a guy that lives in Belarus would have been a gold mine. As he knows the teams and the players will find easier the value especially because there will be a lot of guys like me that don-t even can read correctly the teams name.       Now, regarding the betting after the lockdown, I was curious what happened last 10 seasons considering the games where the home team have not played for at least 2 weeks. (there is no data for a larger interval between games) Because I have the data I calculated what happened if the interval between 2 games was under 3 games.   I noted T1 - top teams  ELO>2000 at the game's moment T2 - average teams  ELO>1700 at the game's moment T3 - bottom teams   Here is the graph only for "Home Win" market. How to read it, see the highlighted selection Please note that T1-T3 and T3-T1 had not so many games but for example, T1-T2 had a good sample.   (T1-T2)  means all the games between (Top teams - Average teams) played last 10 seasons   1. The first column (blue) - 74.47% of total games were won by the home teams   2. The second column(red) - 77.59% of the games were home team played the last games less than 3 days ago were won by the home team   3. The third column (green) - 55.56%  of the games were home team played the last games more than 15 days ago were won by the home team         As a first conclusion it-s easy to see that if the interval between games is  reduced, the top teams won more games than usual  but if the interval is larger  they won just a little bit over 50%   Now, just after the lockdown, we are in the column 3 situation so have to try to find value in laying top teams. After 1-2 rounds will be in the column 2 situation and for sure will try to back the top teams.   Of course, will need to check all the available info but I think this will be the trend.
  8. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from marco3367 in How would you adjust your rating when a player is out?   
    I would say, based on my own experience that is extremely complicated to calculate statistically  how will be affected a team if one/two players are missing
    What I tried a few years ago it was to record all minutes played by each player, the results...etc. Then to compare what happened when the player was on the field with the games they were not.
    Soon, I realised this is not enough anyway. I find out that if a player is missing, there is extremely important (again) to see combinations of players. I found out that some players play much better and the team had better results if other 2-3 players were present together...etc. Finally, I gave up because there would have been too many combinations and the results not sure.
     
    On the other hand, what I would try is to back the team where very important players are missing at the right time.
    Why? You talked about value. Let-s think that at one moment the odds are stable. What happens right after the information that 2 important players will not play? For sure many many will try to back the opponent team as soon as possible and they move the odds far more then really is needed. Is like an overreaction given by the first impulse.
    Of course, in a short time, the odds will be stabilized again but we need to catch the better odds to back the team with the missing players.  In my opinion, there are greater chances to be value.
    It is a very common situation when after a team remains without 1 key player (red card during the game or before the game..etc ) , the manager tells to remaining players that need to give more on the field to compensate the missing player.  Almost every time, especially top teams,  play better than before.   This is like a joke but I think is not far from reality
  9. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from Torque in How would you adjust your rating when a player is out?   
    I would say, based on my own experience that is extremely complicated to calculate statistically  how will be affected a team if one/two players are missing
    What I tried a few years ago it was to record all minutes played by each player, the results...etc. Then to compare what happened when the player was on the field with the games they were not.
    Soon, I realised this is not enough anyway. I find out that if a player is missing, there is extremely important (again) to see combinations of players. I found out that some players play much better and the team had better results if other 2-3 players were present together...etc. Finally, I gave up because there would have been too many combinations and the results not sure.
     
    On the other hand, what I would try is to back the team where very important players are missing at the right time.
    Why? You talked about value. Let-s think that at one moment the odds are stable. What happens right after the information that 2 important players will not play? For sure many many will try to back the opponent team as soon as possible and they move the odds far more then really is needed. Is like an overreaction given by the first impulse.
    Of course, in a short time, the odds will be stabilized again but we need to catch the better odds to back the team with the missing players.  In my opinion, there are greater chances to be value.
    It is a very common situation when after a team remains without 1 key player (red card during the game or before the game..etc ) , the manager tells to remaining players that need to give more on the field to compensate the missing player.  Almost every time, especially top teams,  play better than before.   This is like a joke but I think is not far from reality
  10. Like
    giraldi reacted to froment in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    If you cared to read, you'd have noticed CGMBet is not prediction site/program at all.
  11. Like
    giraldi reacted to zabadac in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    Looks like an impressive piece of sosftware.
    What is the predictivity value it scores though ?
    Read about predictivity values and benchmarks here:
     


    I don't mean to be critical but I am critical of everything, because our task (to beat the bookies) is difficult, like the legendary hunting for the snark.
    It depends on this:
    Who are our opponents ?
    Let me tell you a story.
    Summer of 1986, Mexico world cup, early group stage. I go to a large department store for shopping, in Athens-Greece. At the exit they were giving the customers a piece of paper saying "predict todays match and enter our great competition". The prize was a motorbike and the match to guess was Costa Rica v. Scotland. So I thought "everyone will go for Scotland here, they are respected as a European force and they recently beat Greece in the preliminaries, but they have some problems in the scoring department and the Costa Ricans will defend heroically". So I ticked the draw box. 
    The match ended in a goalless draw so next morning I went to the shop to see what happened. What happened was that I was one of only eight who guessed correctly.
    Did n't win the bike but one among eight was impressive - the number of customers the previous day must have been 1000 and more, it was summer sales period as well.
    But these people were housewives, girls, grannies and so on. They did n't know about football.
    So my opponents were weak. If I was to bet against them everyday I would surely make lots of easy money !
    In the real world of betting it can never be like that. And indeed after I left the shop when I entered the competition, before going home I went to some football agent shops out of curiosity to see what they thought about Costa Rica versus Scotland. There it was different. The predictions were evenly matched between Scotland and the draw, with some 15% going for Costa Rica to win.
    So this proves to you then that it is all about the opposition. We want to outclass the bookies like I did with the customers of that department store !
    But this is an uphill struggle and although the efforts of the statisticians and software makers are commendable, they should be able to beat some quite difficult benchamrks in order to have any impact.
  12. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from only1woz in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    Last weekend, a colour blind user told me that couldn't distinguish between wins and draws and asked me if it is a chance to do something about. I did not feel very comfortable because I should think about this limitation earlier so I created a new tool that allows him, and everyone else,  to change the colours across the software.
    It is very easy now to set the colours you want.  Here is just a random example.
     

     

  13. Thanks
    giraldi got a reaction from only1woz in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    These days CGMBET celebrates 9 years since the first international version.
    The first versions of Home and Tables pages in the pictures below. 😍
    And of course, as every year, big discounts on the site, for absolutely anything.


     
  14. Thanks
    giraldi got a reaction from only1woz in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    Yes, it was not very difficult and this new feature helps a lot the upsets hunters
    It is possible now to save/load the default settings. (please use with caution as it was not time to test it completely)
     
    I noticed lately that many advanced users are interested in the Upsets module. Not only because it allows to check when happened, the teams that did it more then another..etc but also allows you to see if would have been a good idea to back or to lay upsets in different leagues
    In the example below I checked the Premier where the favourites, with odds <2.00, did not win away. (with green are the next games where big favourites play away)
    How to read the results: In 48 possible upsets, 19 happened to be upsets and our return would have been approximative equal with the total stake
    I have check all the big leagues and can tell that only Spain (because of Barca) has been profitable to back the big underdog at home.
     

  15. Thanks
    giraldi got a reaction from only1woz in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    The EXPORT is very flexible now and can export almost everything in XLS or CSV.
    As users requested, I added the teams' codes in order to handle in their own projects the teams' names changes.
    Chile, Ireland 1,2 and Japan 1,2 are ready for the next season!
     

  16. Thanks
    giraldi got a reaction from only1woz in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    Only1woz, thank you
    the new fixtures are usually added with around 1 week before. Prbably this saturday  your preffered league will be there.
     
    Now, about a big improvement in the Tables section:
    The old table can be extended/collapsed now to see the opponent's in the home vs away tables
    Ex: Hoffenheim has the next game away with Freiburg. We see at a glance that did better away since Freiburg did worse at home comparing to overall results
    Might be very useful
     

  17. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from Rey86 in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    Yes, Today 3 out of 6 with more than 55% yield
     
    Last 30 days
    More than 25% in 50 games in all markets
    More than 100% in 20 games in DRAW market
    It is too good..don-t know what to say. Check the Suggestions module but keep calm, look for info then make your own decision.
     
  18. Thanks
    giraldi got a reaction from harry_rag in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    Yes, Today 3 out of 6 with more than 55% yield
     
    Last 30 days
    More than 25% in 50 games in all markets
    More than 100% in 20 games in DRAW market
    It is too good..don-t know what to say. Check the Suggestions module but keep calm, look for info then make your own decision.
     
  19. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from only1woz in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    Excellent results for the Suggestions module over the week-end (18 games +35% yield), again, but I will not insist because there is not any intention to give tips but just a few games to think about, to dig deeper and to make the best decision.
     
    Many asked if possible to back-test the filters they created in the UPCOMING section. The answer is YES, but it is not so obvious (my bad) so I just wanted to introduce a new video-tutorial that will learn you how to back test the filters.
    I considered a very simple case when I am interested to check what would have been the results last month if I had bed on home teams, within "My Leagues" list, based on the following filter:
    1.  Home team won at least 50% of the home games against similar opponents to the current opponent
    2. Away team lost at least 50% of the away teams against similar opponents to the current opponent
    If it is still something not clear please let me know.
     
     
     
     
  20. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from Rey86 in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    Excellent results for the Suggestions module over the week-end (18 games +35% yield), again, but I will not insist because there is not any intention to give tips but just a few games to think about, to dig deeper and to make the best decision.
     
    Many asked if possible to back-test the filters they created in the UPCOMING section. The answer is YES, but it is not so obvious (my bad) so I just wanted to introduce a new video-tutorial that will learn you how to back test the filters.
    I considered a very simple case when I am interested to check what would have been the results last month if I had bed on home teams, within "My Leagues" list, based on the following filter:
    1.  Home team won at least 50% of the home games against similar opponents to the current opponent
    2. Away team lost at least 50% of the away teams against similar opponents to the current opponent
    If it is still something not clear please let me know.
     
     
     
     
  21. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from only1woz in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    As I said many times, I am strongly against  blindly follow tips without make your own deep assesment.
    The "Suggestions" module of my software just applies a few set of rules (written by me of course) then provide a few suggestions. Of course I keep an eye on the output to not be extemely strange "suggestions". The start, first 2-3 weeks, was extremely bad (it was -70% at some moment) but after a few changes it seems OK and now we have around -10% yield from almost 70 games. The last 30 days (42 bets) had +13% overall with an incredible 75% on draw maket from 12 games    
    Again, this module just gives a few games, selected based on some stats, without taken into consideration the last info..etc (here is your work)
     
    The "Suggestions" module gives today 9 games to think about, more than usual.
    In particular, I am very interested in Inter and Real games where the software indicates a great value on draw. Might be strange bet but did not exclude the bets because the program has given a 75% yield on the draw market last 30 days (12 games).
    Please make your own analysis then play accordingly.
     


  22. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from Rey86 in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    On the Tables section, last 2 columns, you can see now not only WDL market but a few more.
    In this example, at a glance, we see that Wolves scored against all teams but away against Liverpool and Leicester.
    Might be useful...
    Don-t forget to use "?" mini-buttons to learn more.
     

  23. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from Rey86 in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    This feature has been asked by too many expert users so finally, I managed to finish it.
     
    It is about saving in XLS or CSV format all that is happening in the Live Statistics module. The old button "Export to" works like before but I added a new button "Save" that will save instantly without any other message the table to XLS or CSV, depending on what you set on the right side.
     
    The "Autosave" button allows you now to set an interval between 0-30 minute. Each time will be saved all that was not saved since the last save. For example, you can set it to 10 minutes then every ten minutes will be saved in the "Export" folder a file named  YYMMDDHHMMSS in XLS or CSV format with all data since the last save.
     
    All data can be studied later, minute by minute to see odds, score, percent...etc.
     

     
  24. Thanks
    giraldi got a reaction from Rey86 in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    I defined similar games as those games where the home/away teams had similar ELO to the selected home/away teams.
    Now, similar ELO means that the ELO is inside a given interval, for example Home team ELO  +/- 75 points. Of course the shorter is the interval the better are the results but the sample may be not so good. If the interval is large, the sampe is big but the results are not so accurate. 
    I strongly believe that the ELO coefficient is a very good indicator of the relative value of a team, compared to the other teams, inside the same league. The teams win or lose ELO points depending on their value and the opponent value. Burnley will get a lot of ELO points from Norwich  but Manchester United or Liverpool  not so much  and so on.
    My software calculates and keeps ELO value starting with the moment the team is added in the system then the coefficient is not reseted ever,  for new season, relegation, promtion....etc. This is because the ELO coefficient needs 20-25 games to calibrate then to take his place in the league ELO table
     
    Here you can see the ELO graph for the first two teams, Liverpool and Manchester City.   That explain it best what happend so far
     
     
     
     
     
     
  25. Like
    giraldi got a reaction from Rey86 in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    As I promised, I went further with the last improvement and now can see the number of games where the home/away values come from
    For example, Preston won 100% at home against similar opponents in 5 games and Charlton lost 60% away in 10 similar games
    It's much better now that we can see the sample

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