alani42

Here are the odds and ratings for this weekend's matches in the Bundesliga I and II. Take a look and give us your bets for these games! 

The two teams are not at their best, but Lyon has more quality and can go away with victory points. Mets has limited opportunities and if he is left behind he will not be able to reverse the situation. I expect Lyon to come in strong from the start to keep up with Juventus.
FC METZ vs OLYMPIQUE LYONNAIS @@ OLYMPIQUE LYONNAIS, odds 1.95

Check out the odds and ratings for the next round of Ligue 1 and 2 matches coming our way this weekend. A lot to consider so give us your predictions down below! 

Who's paying 1.80? 

Both teams are offensive and have weak defenses. At home Monaco are excellent last, but Paris have a great tradition and will look for a rematch from Sunday's 3-3. Difficult match for predictions, with goals again the first reason in the match
AS MONACO vs PARIS SAINT GERMAIN@@ Over 2,5, odds 1.80

Profit/Loss of the day +3.20pts 
Overall Profit/Loss +22.70PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  +22.70PTS
Overall Selections 27
Won 16
Lost 11
Strike rate :- 59.25%
AVG ODDS 1.96
R.O.I  8.22%
2/3 Selections winning today another massive profit made on the day . Time to search around for any price movements for tomorrow.
 

@alani42Sorry I cannot post the excel
1. It is all generated in VBA (so it will only update from the user form)
2. It also contains lots of other data which I am unwilling to reveal (currently)
If you require help in creating your own sheet and need help with formulas then please ask and I will assist where possible
if you checkout the link posted 13th March this should give you a good starting point

The French Ligue 1 and 2 action is back this weekend after the international break. Plenty to stew on with the odds and ratings listed above. Let us know what bets you think we should all back from these games. 

For those that are interested I have been working on a new Selection method for next season which I hope will perform a bit better than I have done so far this season ( That being said all selections backed are only showing a loss of 3.85pts from 112 selections)The above stat has convinced me that there is hope in the selection method.
The new selections will be rated using the same criteria as the original i.e 3 lowest pts from both home and away
but it will use a new rating method (Highest being the selection) The new Rating method will use Goals per game and Points per game this combined with table positions and games being won give the selection Back testing over the last 2 seasons is looking promising although it does not always make a selection even when their are enough qualifying games in the round.(for my own personal use it also displays Home and away stats for the game when a Game is clicked in the list) see below image
I will carry on posting the original selections as promised until the end of the season.
Hopefully I will be able to start next season with the new selection method more than likely under a different thread
any comments or ideas are welcome
 

CSKA win @ 3.75 is too high in my opinion, throwing some money at that.
Value in Valencia - Juve X @ 3.50 too. BTTS probably safer.

my ticket
Shakhtar [email protected]
Benfica-Bayern [email protected]
Young Boys-ManUn OVER 1.5,[email protected]
Bet365 odds
GLto all

My ticket 
Porto +0,5@1,550 ☺️
Barca+over 3,5@1,72 ☺️
Dordmund DNB@1,425 ☺️
Bet365 odds
GL to all

Shakhtar to beat Hoffenheim at 2.00 bet365
Shaktar are starting their consecutive journey in CL. The Ukrainians were able to get 3 home wins last year in their group and even achieved a prestigious win against Man City (even though the English team played with their reserves). This year the aim will be the same to get out of the group. This game is must win. Shakhtar don't have real competition in the local league and have 5 consecutive wins in the league. From the other side, Hoffenheim started unconvincing with 2 losses from 3 games in Bundesliga. In addition, the Germans have problems with injured and doubtful players. The total number reaches 10 players which most certainly will not play with Kevin Vogt, Lukas Rupp, Amiri, Denis Geiger and others. Hoffenheim are new to CL with last year playing in EL and finishing last in their group. Based on everything written, I see value in home win. GL


 

Benfica - Bayern has its own glory, as two big clubs are fighting each other, with the Bavarians, of course, showing favorites. A nice team is the Portuguese and we will prefer to score
SL BENFICA vs FC BAYERN MUNICH @@ Both team to score, odds 1.75
Excellent aggressive lines the two teams will give everything to win and I expect an open game with many goals
CF VALENCIA vs JUVENTUS TURIN @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.90

My ticket 
Porto +0,5@1,550 ☺️
Barca+over 3,5@1,72 ☺️
Dordmund DNB@1,425 ☺️
Bet365 odds
GL to all

For today I found 
10. Stoke - Swansea 2 @ 4.52
11. WBA - Bristol 2 @ 4.27
12. Dresden - Hamburg 2 @ 2.36
The odds are pretty big but can be played with a small handicap also if you are not comfortable with that. On the other hand don-t be afraid of odds. They are just the other users opinion about the probability to happen the event and their opinion is not necessary the best one, especially when there is a large majority.  In betting, one of the best thing can happen is to be "on the other side".
I am working to find a similar strategy for Home win and for the next weekend will start, in the same thread, the same strategy but for Home win market. 
Away win strategy seems decent until now.. but I have to take care because the number of games is very small and the temptations are extremely big ...:)
 
 

Barca v PSV: Probably the easiest to call, Barca and over 3.5 goals at 8/11 makes sense. PSV on fire in Dutch league but no comparison to La Liga but may contribute to the scoring, but Barca can score 4 anyway.
Inter v Tottenham: Spurs loss of form and making costly mistakes is a bad sign going to the San Siro to lock horns with a ‘storied’ club from the past eager to test themselves at this level again. Keeping it simple with a draw no bet on Inter at around Evens.
Club Brugge v B. Dortmund: Dortmund back in form and should win here despite Brugge killing it in the Belgian league, again chalk and cheese with the Bundesliga. 8/11 on Dortmund win.
Galatasaray v Lokomotiv Moscow: Gala at a shade under Evens is the bet, with the wealth of experience at this level and the home advantage.
Liverpool v PSG: Needs no explanation, two rampant attacks, btts and over 2.5 goals at 4/6 is a Nap/Lock.
Monaco v Atletico Madrid: 8/11 for the away win as Monaco has lost many star players and Atletico are wiley old campaigners.
Red Star Belgrade v Napoli: Odds a bit low on the away win, so not bet for me. Red Star an unknown quantity at this level and lack of supporters in the ground is another confounding variable.
Schalke v Porto:  Another tricky call, if pushed Btts at 3/4 might be a play.
Ajax v AEK Athens: AEK have already dumped Celtic out but a rampant Ajax side with a mixture of youth and experience is a step too far so chancing -1.5 AH at 6/5.
Shakhtar v Hoffenheim: Not the Shakhtar of old when they were super competitive at this level, makes this a tricky call. On balance no bet, even both teams to score is a bit short.
Benfica v Bayern Munich: Bayern are built to challenge in this competition perennially and are strong enough to get the job done away to a Benfica side far from convincing lately, 4/9.
Man City v Lyon: When Man City are motivated they can score for fun and Lyon are susceptible at the back whilst able to also contribute to the scoring so Man City and over 3.5 goals at around Evens.
Real Madrid v Roma: Real live and breathe the Champions league and will again try to create history despite the loss of CR7. They will be focussed and too much for a Roma side leaky and inconsistent. -1.5 AH on Real at a shade under Evens.
Valencia v Juventus: Again a side built for the champions league and destined to go very deep, will be too strong for a disappointing Valencia side, so straight win on Juve at 4/5.
Viktoria Plzen v CSKA Moscow: A slight lean to the home side but too many unknowns so no bet.
Young Boys v Man Utd: When focussed Utd are a decent team but more leaky at the back than recent seasons so a high scoring Young Boys team can get on the score sheet. Btts at 4/5 is therefore preferred to the Utd win (3/4).

Be careful here, Schalke lost key midfielders Max Meyer and Leon Goretzka in the summer and have started badly in the Bundesliga this season with 3 defeats from 3 games. I don't think you should back a team just because it's in a superior league either, Porto are no muggs and if anything have underachieved in UCL in recent seasons.
On the flipside, one of Porto's main weapons are crosses in the box, balls over the top and set-pieces. Naldo and Salif Sane (Schalke's centre-backs) are pretty good at dealing with this sort of thing as they are physically strong and very good in the air. If Schalke then also play a low block it can help negate the pace of Marega and Aboubakar (Porto's strikers).
I think odds are fairly well set in this game, Porto +0.50 line is currently 1.52; I would want 1.70 before getting involved or Schalke's main CB's would have to be unavailable to take away team on +0.25 line at current prices.
At the moment it's a no bet for me.

Liverpool vs Porto
It's already been mentioned on here that we should expect Liverpool to rest a fair few first team players for this second leg game against Porto after winning 5-0 away in Portugal in the first leg. However, Jurgen Klopp himself has come out and said he will only make 2-3 changes. That said, it seems almost certain that Mohamed Salah will be rested, as @newjack mentioned.
I have backed the Reds to win 2-0 on my correct score bet this week. I was shocked at how poor Porto were in the first leg and I saw nothing that makes me think they will take something from this game. That is on the basis that Klopp doesn't change the defence and maintains some attacking flair. Attack certainly seems the best form of defence against Sergio Conceicao's team.
My thinking is that Liverpool will fancy their chances to win the game here and it's a huge opportunity to keep a clean sheet at home. I think Liverpool will look to score early. I'm tempted to bet on both teams to score but it's really difficult to tell how motivated the Portuguese side will be with such a deficit. I'm still backing Liverpool to win with a businesslike display. It might well just be a game that both sides want to get done and dusted with no injuries to hamper their domestic campaigns. I'll have a bit of fun with this one I think.
Liverpool HT/FT @ 2.35 with Ladbrokes
Correct Score: Liverpool to win 2-0 @ 8.50 with Betstars
@vasilli07, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @DrBetter, @Duuc, @DrO, @immortal--, @Notorious, @betcatalog, @KingSoccertips, @discipline, @Pep004, @HastGill1, @ElPrincipito007, @salmonman, @DW_United, @allthethings, @MightyWell, @liamcorrigan86, @mijOsim, @dorleywilliams, @soccerprediction123, @jamiedavies02, @TOTTI3, @LePapo, @seifer365, @MPLouis, @Jack A, @JJG, @Pipoca, @neilovan, @wcz, and @WinningAdvice, what are you guys betting on this week?

Toluca vs Pachuca
2018, March 04, 19:00 hrs (CET Time)
Liga MX
Toluca
The team has make a good season so far, remains unbeaten at home, where they have collected two victories and two draws and has showed solid defending only allowing 3 goals in five matches played at home. The team has three consecutive matches winning, only in the match against Mineros Zacatecas in Copa MX the team allowed goals, still the offensive was powerful enough to score more than Mineros and secure qualification for next round.
The team has encounter important opposition at home as Monterrey and Santos Laguna has fallen here in their last two matches played in Liga MX. Also Santos Laguna lost here in Copa MX.
With the pair of Sambueza and Fernando Uribe the team has the offensive power required.
Pachuca
The team has improved lately in Liga MX with four consecutive matches without losing,  two home victories, and away victory against Veracruz and a high voltage against Pachuca.  In the midweek the team lost their last match of Copa MX against Atletico San Luis by 2-1, and despite being tied in points was able to proceed thanks to away goals to next stage of Copa MX.
Keisuke Honda has adapt well to the team, and has also scored goal for the team and remains one of their main key players.
For Pachuca this match will be a very good test for their capabilities for this season. At away the team has only the victory against Veracruz, and had lost against Tigres UANL by 3-2 at the end of January. With draw against America and Chivas.
Prediction
The previous encounter have been tight matches, and the urgency of Pachuca to win at away will be key for the development of the match, expect constant offensive arrivals.
Toluca should impose conditions, still it will not be an easy thing to do Pachuca has obtained good results here by minimum margin, the discipline will be key, if Toluca can avoid red cards, then they will have control and enjoy the best chances. Considering the handicap take, Toluca is the best option by being at home where they are displaying a great gameplay.
Toluca -0.25 AH with 8 units @ 1.84 at 12Bet

Sara Sorribes Tormo (+4.5) to beat Heather Watson at 1.91 with Pinnacle
This is obviously primarily about opposing Watson, who hasn't had a good performance since Wimbledon. Her wins have been very tough recently and Sorribes Tormo will be able to keep the ball in play all the time, so chances are that this will be tight at the very least.

Hello, it's been some time since my last post. So, in a nutshell, this thread is not dead yet.
I've worked a lot on improving the data quality and the whole data acquisition process, improving the data model, simplifying the codebase and making this whole thing more reliable and maintaiable. Still, some way to go, but I estimate I will be ready with new predictions in 3-4 weeks. Until then, good fortunes!
 

Here is my new strategy for the New Football season.
I am going to concentrate on the SPL and I am going to use the ELO Ratings.
No Ratings today so I am going to pick my own results to get up and going.
I have tried this recently on the League of Ireland Premier Division and have had a bit of luck and a few that hit the post, namely Bohs beating Shamrock Rvs and following up with a win in Cork against City. I know people will say why don't you use double chance so I will keep a record of both for the sake of the system, I will go along with my own strategy.
I am going to try and predict the outcome of the six games each week. each week will consist of 3 one off prdictions, 2 Double chance (for the sake of explanation) and final game covering all three outcomes. This will be explained better once you see the predictions. It will consist of 12 combination/perms bets over the 6 games. The stake will be 12 x £1 accums. (For the double chance system it will be 3 x £4 accums).
Gameweek 1
Rangers 8\13
Aberdeen 3\10
Hibernians 20\23
Celtic 2\9 and Draw 5\1
Dundee 8\5 and Draw 11\5
Kilmarnock 13\8, Draw 21\10, St.Johnstone 7\4 
Stake 12 x £1 Accums.
this will give a min. payout of 32.75 and a maximum payout of 233.31.
Lets hope for the best .... I will be staking on this personally (at a smaller stake) and I will keep an account of using Double Chance as well, in case anybody wants stats. 

The Crystal Palace should aim in this match to get the three points of victory, the Swansea are disappointing and do not think it can get today any points
CRYSTAL PALACE vs SWANSEA CITY @@ CRYSTAL PALACE, odss 1.80
The two groups are quantitative and can offer us a spectacular game with many goals, score and readily accept the goals, many goals have enough luck today
AFC BOURNEMOUTH vs ARSENAL FC @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.80