Northwestpunter

My top 5 picks below this weekend are below. Like Addpea I had picked Corby and Tranmere out a couple of days back as looking promising. I will attach some caution to these picks though as it is early in the season and the form is still hard to read as well as all the games except Corby being away games. Also I apologise if some of the odds have changed now as I wrote this on Friday morning to send to a couple of friends and meant to post it yesterday. Weston Super Mare vs Hemel Hempsted: Hemel Hempsted win Hemel Hempsted away to a depleted Weston Super Mare who are apparently without their experienced central defender Tom Jordan. Weston have have shipped 8 goals in their last two games including 4 at home to Gosport on Tuesday. The Tudors have recruited well this summer and should be top 10 in the league this year, they have won their opening two games and although this in an away match I think 1/1 with Bet 365 is a solid bet. Corby Town My next one is Corby Town who are 21/20 with Bet Victor to beat Chorley this weekend at home. Corby have recruited well and should be top 10 this year. They have started well scoring 5 goals in two games including a 3-1 win over a solid Gloucester side on Tuesday. The loan signing from MK Dons of Kabongo Tshimanga who is highly rated and scored something like 45 goals in 25 games at youth level. He apparently was excellent against Gloucester and scored. Chorley who did so well last season have lost the first two games conceding 7 goals including a 4-0 defeat against North Ferriby on Tuesday. Todays signing of Andrew Bond for them who goes straight into the team for tomorrows game concerns me slightly who is an experienced and solid league player and should give them some steel but I fancy this to go with the form and Corby win. St.Albans vs Ebbsfleet: Ebbsfleet to win Ebbsfleet are a well drilled side full of ex league players and have a good balance now with the lazier players booted out. I can't see anyone else winning the league this season. Ebbsfleet won 2-0 away to Maidstone on Tuesday which is a great result on the 3G pitch and the strikeforce of Cunnington and Kedwell are a league pairing. Not a great deal wrong with St. Albans and the match is away but I think 10/11 is fair and Ebbsfleet should have too much. Braintree vs Tranmere: Tranmere to win This is a bit risky but I went with it a 21/20, Tranmere have started well and beating Gateshead away 4-1 was no mean feat on Tuesday. Braintree will do well to stay in the division. The young manager they have recruited (Danny Cowley) from Concord Rangers is highly rated and I don't think this game will be a pushover but I fancy Tranmere have a few more goals in the side and should grind out a win. The only limiting factor again comes in the fact that it is an away game. Staines vs Leatherhead: Leatherhead to win This is really a bit of a fun bet and I am betting against Staines rather than for Leatherhead who are have won the first two games of the season 3-0 home and away and finished a respectable 10th last season. Staines have Nicky Forster who I don't really rate as a manager and he has made a host of signings who still have to gel. They lost 1-0 at home to an average Bognor Regis side on Tuesday and it looks like two very important players in Darren Purse and Tommy Brewer will be missing for this fixture. This is a punt but I could not ignore the odds at 2-1 for Leatherhead. My other smallers odds picks are: Grimsby 1/2 (Should have too much in a long away trip for Bromley) Flyde 4/9 (Signed Jason St Juste and at home against Gainsborough cant ignore) Chippenham 4/7 (Have made some good signings and playing a poor Bedworth side at home) Woking 17/20 (Look good value against a poor Altrincham side who are visitors, Woking's lack of a striker is a problem but they are an imposing side with a goalscoring midfield and beat a good Bromley side on Tuesday)

Six bets for me this weekend and hoping to land some big prices. Braintree v Tranmere Tranmere have hit the ground running which has surprised me slightly and after nicking a 1-0 victory against Woking last weekend they put 4 past Gateshead on Tuesday night. I am a little surprised to see them at odds against here given Braintree's not unexpected poor start to the season. I predicted they were going to be in for a hard season and after losing their first two games nothing has suggested to me otherwise. If Tranmere carry on in the form they have shown so far I would be hopeful they can carry on their 100% record. BetVictor go 11/10 for an away win. Gateshead v Boreham Wood I am sticking with one of the winning bets from last Saturday and going with Boreham Wood. Gateshead beat another of my bets last week in Aldershot, but the reports suggested they were rather lucky to do so. As mentioned above Tranmere had no issues putting four past them on Tuesday and although Wood aren't as good as Tranmere they have proven they will hold their own in this division. A good win against Halifax was followed by only going down to a last minute goal against Eastleigh. On those efforts they have a good chance of winning this and Bet 365s 18/5 is way too high. Alfreton v Brackley Alfreton have not had a great time so far since relegation. Granted they did get a point on the opening day, but they went down to nine-men and then they lost at home to Lowestoft on Tuesday. That was disappointing given Lowestoft are always at a disadvantage when they travel away from home as was proven by their shocking away form last season. Brackley have won one and lost one so far beating Harrogate 1-0 and then losing 1-0 to another relegated side in Nuneaton. Brackley have spent a bit of money again ahead of this season and should go a fair bit better than last term. On form so far they have a decent chance of getting maximum points and are over priced at 11/4 (Bet 365). Corby v Chorley The one home team I fancy this week are Corby. Gary Flitcroft leaving as Chorley manager looked like it would be a bad thing for them and so it has proved so far having lost both games including losing 4-0 to North Ferriby on Tuesday. They also conceded 3 against Nuneaton last Saturday so clearly the defence is a big issue for them. Corby have scored 5 in their two games so far so you would fancy them to get on the score sheet on Saturday. They were quite impressive against Gloucester on Wednesday and that should give them plenty of confidence going into this game. I think the home side look the best bet of the weekend at Boylesports' 11/10. FCUM v Tamworth It hasn't been a great start to live in National League North for FCUM having lost both their first two games and the feeling that their manager has taken them as far as he can still remains. They have another tough game on Saturday as they host a Tamworth side who have won their first two matches. They should be in and around the play-offs this season and I think they can continue the winning way on Saturday and the 6/4 Betway are offering is a fair price. Havant & Waterlooville v Margate The two teams I have tipped up for the league so ante-post wise I won't mind too much what the result is, but the prices on offer for this game based on the two games both have played this season are crazy. How on earth Havant can possibly be odds on is beyond. Granted it is worrying for my ante-post bet on them, but in the context of this game they have to be opposed. They have been woeful in both games against Bishops Stortford and Sutton and their fans on their forum are very worried about how they are performing at the moment and the managers tactics. Given Stortford lost 4-1 on Tuesday and Sutton were easily beaten by Maidstone on the opening day, neither defeat exactly bodes well. Margate are yet to win either, but have drawn twice and the 2-2 effort at Whitehawk on Tuesday was a good effort. If this game goes to form then there is only going to be one winner and at BetVictor's 11/4 Margate are a massive price. Tranmere 2pts Boreham Wood 1pt Brackley 1pt Corby 3pts Tamworth 2pts Margate 2.5pts

Portland Timbers -0.5 @ 2.03 Whitecaps will be without another key defender Kendall Waston as he was called up to join the Costa Rica squad. Another 1st choice defender Pa Modou Kah is still out with injury, that's likely to force them to start with an inexperienced pair of central defenders(Christian Dean, Tim Parker and Diego Rodriguez). Captain Pedro Morales is also likely to miss another fixture with his injury. Portland Timbers is coming home with tail between their legs after that 3-0 thrashing by Philadelphia Union. Providence Park has been a fortress for them this season, with a 6w-3d-1l record. Fullback Alvas Powell is available for selection after walking out of the Jamaican national team. That's a great boost considering they were killed on the fullbacks area last weekend. Players like Jorge Villafana, Adam Kwarasey, Norberto Paparatto, Diego Chara, Darlington Nagbe and Maxi Urutti should all be available after being given last weekend off to recover from knocks. I don't think Whitecaps will be an easy opposition despite all the missing players but Timbers should be able to edge it with a closer to full strength team. Real Salt Lake DNB @ 1.62 A short 1 for this. Both teams missing quite a number of players but I think Houston Dynamo will be hurt more this week especially with DaMarcus Beasley callup. He has joined up with the USA team. He provides alot of cover for Brad Davis and with his speed also cover alot of mistakes by his fellow defenders with his blistering speed.

Toronto -0.5 @ 1.97 Toronto is another team which has struggled since the Gold Cup started. They are winless in the last 3 games. They should have beaten NYC last week with Giovinco brillance but their defence let them down. This week, Giovinco will have reinforcements after Canada was knocked out. Ashtone Morgan is likely to play while Jonathan Osorio could be on the bench. DP striker Jozy Altidore is also back after being dropped by USA. Philadelphia played really well last week but can they do it on the road? They have only kept 1 clean sheet away from home so far. This week, they are without their captain and best defender Maurice Edu. With Toronto getting a few of their players back and Altidore presence(even if he is not 100% fit) on the pitch, Giovinco should have another field day against the poor Philly defence.

MLS: LA Galaxy- San Jose Earthquakes This is the third California Clásico inside 20 days, with honours shared so far, San Jose took the first 3-1 and I previewd that at the end of last month (notes reproduced below), a few days later, Galaxy got a little revenge with a 1-0 road win in the US Open Cup, but that competition is never a priority for LA and if it was/is revenge they are looking for, it is this evening they will have in mind. Since that win three weeks ago, Eathquakes have failed to score in three MLS starts and have looked toothless in the absence of key striker Chris Wondolowski something we touched upon ahead of the second of those games........ They put huge effort into that game and got a famous win, top scorer Chris Wondolowski got the opener there and is a massive loss tonight having since joined the national team. Also called up for Gold Cup duty is right sided midfielder Cordell Cato, a situation which is compounded as the other midfielder on that flank, Sanna Nyassi,is suspended. These are very difficuly absences to overcome especially against a team with so much offensive firepower and to have to do so following back to back games inside four days against a deadly rival and the biggest name in MLS football is too much. They got Nyassi back last week for a home game with an even more beat up Houston Dynamo, who were missing four key players and Quakes were hugely disappointing in a 2-0 defeat. They played a friendly match with Mexican side America in midweek and had the idea of the squad playing 45 minutes each, but it back fired somewhat as they picked up an injury early and then Nyassi got sent off just before half time and they suddenly got a bit of a tough work out, spending a lot of time without the ball and a man short throughout the second period. Galaxy were on fire offensively with 22 goals in six league and cup games, before a 1-0 defeat in the US Open in midweek away to Real Salt Lake, they were able to rest five players with today in mind and Steven Gerrard who played the second 45 minutes, is expected to see out 90 tonight in what is effectively his home debut and there is of course huge media interest in that and he and LAG will want the points to mark it. They received a further boost yesterday with the signing of Giovani dos Santos and he will join them after the Gold Cup, these are marquee signings and a clear indication of where the MLS is heading. Hosts have won 5 of 9 home games with Earthquakes, with all those wins coming by 2+ goals and if they are to get the points this evening, I feel it will be by a similarly convincing margin. The home side are themselves hurt by international absences and a gruelling schedule, but meet a team with similar issues and without the rotation options, home advantage and big name introduction. LA Galaxy -1.25 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.

LA Galaxy -1 @ 1.88 This game will be Stevie G LA Galaxy home debut and the crowd should be pumped up. LA was knocked out of the USOC in midweek by Real Salt Lake. Quite a number of their starters played heavy minutes but they had a bye week before that so fatigue shouldn't be too much of an issue. Supersub Alan Gordon has been called up to US team. Earthquakes has struggled without tailsman Wondolowski. In his absence, they have lost their last 3 games without scoring. Wondo has scored at least a goal in the last 3 meetings against LA. It's hard to see anything other than a LA win here. Earthquakes is an ok side with Wondo but without him, they are probably 1 of the weakest team.

Colombus Crew double chance @ 1.6 Chicago Fire is not the strongest home, only winning 5 out of their 9 so far. They are slowly getting some of their key players(Magee and Nyarko) back from long term injuries. Both started in the win against the Sounders and could start again. Top scorer David Accam and DP Shaun Maloney remain out. Adailton is suspended and top scoring defender Jeff Larentowicz is out and likely to leave them abit weak at the back. Colombus Crew remained winless away after getting thrashed 3-0 by Impact over the weekend. Their biggest problem has been their defence and conceding early goals. In the last 5 games, they have conceded at least a goal within the 1st 15 minutes in 4 games. It's always big risk backing a winless away team but I think Crew do fancy their chances to get something against a side whose key players are still not fully fit.

Brazil: Serie A: Corinthians- Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense are losing their way after a solid start to their season and have conceded nine goals in their last five outings ( one win), two or more in four, including at home to goal shy local rivals Coritiba. They now face a second very tough road trip inside five days, after losing 2-0 at Cruzeiro last weekend and thoughts could quickly tun to a home game with Fluminense in three days time should they fall behind this evening. Corinthians have scored twice in each of their last three home games (all wins) and despite being held scoreless at Goias last time out, they were hugely impressive, with great movement up front and some really inventive build up play especially in and around the box, they also looked good aerially. The home coach is very pleased with the progress his team have made and has spoken of them as potential champions this week, they would go top 4 with all three points this evening and can collect those and possibly cover the handicap with ease if things fall for them in front of goal this evening. Visitors arrive without suspended Walter who has been playing the lone striker role all season and that is a major loss. Corinthians -1 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

Brazil A Internacional vs Flamengo Internacional -0.5 @ 1.98 Min Bet @ 1.80 5/10 The International comes from a disastrous defeat in the last game, they lost 3-0 at home to Atletico who is the best team in the league, pore this time the game is against Flamengo, one of the worst teams and occupying a position between the last 4 placed. Inter have more team that Flamengo, the technical difference is abysmal, and Inter need much this victory, having almost sure that Inter will come to this game with everything and in desperate need of victory I see this line and odd way above normal'll believe again in a Inter win this game. This odd will dropp, good for trade too.

Brazil A Ponte Preta vs Palmeiras Palmeiras -0.5 @1.98 Min Bet 1.65 4.5/10 This game is completely wrong with the lines and I'll explain everything in 3 reasons: - The game is as Ponte Preta was the mastermind but they sold the field to command the stage of Cuiabá, so will be played in another stadium, more than 1000km of their stadium, where the region Ponte Preta has no fans and Palmeiras will have much of the crowd (single twisted) in the stadium, will be largely single twisted game. - Ponte Preta just lost three of their key players, Renato Caja best player on the team and one of the best championship is suspended, Fernando Bob important player also through drop-down field, and to make matters worse Biro Brio which is the only striker that unbalances the team felt injury and is being evaluated but not much chance to play, to play will play busted. - As if all this were not enough the Bridge has been playing poorly and comes from defeats Palmeiras to Contrari comes packaged very well winning games after the 4x0 and 2x0 team comes to another victory I'm sure the line of this game will end around -1 or at least -0.75, take time while there, then the information will become public and the line will fall.

Botafogo x Sampaio Corrêa 02:50CET Probable line ups: Botafogo-RJ: Jefferson;Luis Ricardo, Renan Fonseca, Roger Carvalho e Carleto;Diego Giaretta, Willian Arão, Daniel Carvalho e Tomas Bastos;Rodrigo Pimpão e Luis Henrique Técnico: René Simões Sampaio Corrêa-MA: Rodrigo; Daniel Damião, Luís Otávio, Edvânio e William Simões; Diones, Moisés, Válber e Nádson; Pimentinha e Douglas. Técnico: Léo Condé Botafogo RJ (-1) AH @1.71 pinnacle 4/10

Brazil B ABC vs Nautico ABC -0.25 @1.82 Min Bet @1.75 4.5/10 The ABC comes to this game in a party mood, this is the last game before the team enter their 100th anniversary and begin the festivities for the centenary, because of this the crowd will obviously charge a lot of Team seriousness to bring a victory which incidentally does not appear from the last 6 games at home, the news is the return of Ronaldo Mendes and an offensive formation. The Nautical come to spoil the party, with a good campaign had the Thimphu points of back fat and began to lose points, winless in the last two rounds, has almost complete team today. The game is hard, but the HCP -0.25 with a good odd is honest, like these games where the client needs to win and has the crowd in weight at his side playing with -0.25 line, I see value in these odds and imagine the ABC do not miss the game and has good chances of winning. Brazil B Macaé vs Botafogo Macaé +0.75 @1.88 Min Bet @1.77 4/10 This bet is made by 80% of the line value and 20% by other terms: The Macaé began withering championship with great games and complicated many good times at the beginning, gradually after a war between Bern and the direction the team dropped a lot, but still has a good offense and a mingled team, playing in their domains is able to score at least one goal in any team in Serie B without exception. The bet amount comes from that, although Botafogo but has the best team of the competition will act in the house of his opponent and so will play on a field that is not used, the game will be televised and players of Macaé have extra ingredient to play with more ease, the line is high and the odds are good size for us that we are on the side of value. Brazil B Mogi Mirim vs CRB CRB 0.5 @ 1.91 Min Bet @1.80 4/10 Another game with enormous changes in the lines. The Mogi that has done one of the worst championship campaigns and is one of the worst teams decided to regularize the eternal Rivaldo 10, thus the president down from the grandstands to probably take the field and try to salvation, but by no means the board resolved to relieve fan pocket, tickets 50-100 dollars are traded values. The Mogi is actually a weak team, and the CRB is more or less the same caliber team, perhaps with some individual values slightly better, but the CRB comes with a better campaign and a more confident and embroiled team, the line correct this game was even as DNB opened but overwhelmingly market moved the line to -0.5 for the principals, so we enter the value that is 0.5 to CRB. Brazil B Boa Esporte vs Bragantino Boa Esporte -0.25 @ 1.91 Min Bet 1.84 3/10 Another game with enormous changes in the lines. The Mogi that has done one of the worst championship campaigns and is one of the worst teams decided to regularize the eternal Rivaldo 10, thus the president down from the grandstands to probably take the field and try to salvation, but by no means the board resolved to relieve fan pocket, tickets 50-100 dollars are traded values. The Mogi is actually a weak team, and the CRB is more or less the same caliber team, perhaps with some individual values slightly better, but the CRB comes with a better campaign and a more confident and embroiled team, the line correct this game was even as DNB opened but overwhelmingly market moved the line to -0.5 for the principals, so we enter the value that is 0.5 to CRB.