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Darran

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  1. Like
    Darran got a reaction from MCLARKE in Australian Jumps Season 2024   
    Finally get chance to watch a meeting in the flesh and I have a nightmare. I was stood by the last for Dubai Moon’s race and thought the race was won. Still can’t believe he got beat. Budd Fox just jumped better than Tom Foolery and that’s made the difference. Was a tough card to make money from though although my 7yo son managed to! Will be back for the big Warrnambool Carnival next month and hopefully the 2 football teams win for you.
  2. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Bronxie in Australian Jumps Season 2024   
    Finally get chance to watch a meeting in the flesh and I have a nightmare. I was stood by the last for Dubai Moon’s race and thought the race was won. Still can’t believe he got beat. Budd Fox just jumped better than Tom Foolery and that’s made the difference. Was a tough card to make money from though although my 7yo son managed to! Will be back for the big Warrnambool Carnival next month and hopefully the 2 football teams win for you.
  3. Like
    Darran reacted to Hotspur88 in Racing Chat - Saturday 13th April   
    Really nice profitable day today, was needed to build my bank back up. Was looking very desperate a couple of days back but now I've built it back up I need to be more sensible with my stakes. Thank you @richard-westwood for all your hard work with the ratings 👍🏼. Cheers @MCLARKE for running the comps and your general support and thank you @Darran for your Oz tips. Enjoy your evenings all 👏🏼
  4. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Hotspur88 in Australian Jumps Season 2024   
    Annoyingly Oddschecker doesn’t have the meeting on their site so I will just use Bet365 prices, but others will be betting in it.
    Race 1
    Pure Deal has been backed for this in what is a tight betting market, but I will side with Custom Of The Sea as he looked like a promising sort in Ireland and with him winning on the flat last time he is clearly in good heart in Oz as well. Good race despite the 4 runners.
    Custom Of The Sea 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365
    Race 2
    Credit Crunch has come out and he was put in as 2nd fav which surprised me and it means the price on Leaderboard has come in, but he has the potential to be useful and looks the best of these.
    Race 3
    Betting has it between Jack Knows Best and Dubai Moon which is right for me and I would make the latter the fav so as he isn’t he is the bet.
    Dubai Moon 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365
    Race 4
    I had sort of hoped that it would be possible to back both The Mighty Spar and Fabalot, but that isn’t the case and or me Fabalot is the one who is value. He had some very strong form over hurdles last season and brings the best hurdles form into the race. I’d have him as the market leader myself.
    Fabalot 1pt @ 13/5
    Race 5
    No surprise that Tom Foolery is the fav here given most of the horses in the race are the ones he beat last week. Technically this is a step up in grade, but I think the winner of the 0-114 race was much improved and given he pushed him close it was a strong piece of form. I’m surprised Budd Fox is 2nd in as I suspect he will need this. Not Usual Dream would be the bigger danger for me and Blood And Sand might outrun his odds.
    Tom Foolery 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
    Race 6
    Stern Idol should win this. A good run on the flat means he is in good form and this is his ideal trip and conditions. Rockstar Ronnie ought to be 2nd best, but no doubt this is being used as a prep for the Grand Annual. I am happy to back Leaderboard and Stern Idol in a double.
    Leaderboard and Stern Idol 1pt double @ 1.79/1 with Bet365
  5. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Bedlam in Australian Jumps Season 2024   
    Off to Pakenham we go on Sunday for a whole jumps card and personally it has the extra bonus as I will actually be at Pakenham to watch the action and it should be a good card. Hopefully it can build on last weeks profits as well. To start with it will just be my notes and then I will add bets when the races are priced up.
    Race 1
    Only 4 runners in this 1 jumps win hurdle. Custom Of The Sea has come from Joseph O’Brians and he made two starts over hurdles for him. He won impressively on debut in a maiden at Killarney last May and was then 2nd at Ballinrobe a few weeks later. Media Naranja was the horse who beat him that day and he is rated 122 at the moment and ran at The Festival. Since going to Oz he has had 3 flat runs and won the last of them at Ballarat so he is in good form. He has trialled a couple of times since to keep him ticking over and he ought to be capable of decent things over hurdles in Australia.
    Calvi beat Elementry at Warrnambool by 5.2L although the latter was pretty green that day and clearly benefitted from the experience when winning back there a couple of weeks later. It wouldn’t surprise me if he reverses the form as he could get an easy lead.
    Pure Deal was 3rd in a maiden at this meeting last year in a hot race and then he won his maiden at Warrnambool. He was very disappointing at Sandown on his next start and he hasn’t been seen since in a actual race. He has had plenty of trials and has won the 2 hurdles won he has had.
    Race 2
    Aqulleon showed a bit of ability over hurdles in 2 starts last season when a 8.2L 3rd at Warrnambool in May and a 4.7L 4th at Sale in June. Well beaten in 3 flat starts so far this year.
    Gambu was 3rd at Warrnambool 2.7L behind Calvi and was then well beaten at the time when falling a couple of weeks later. 5.1L 4th last week wasn’t bad though.
    Huntley Castle was meant to run last week and I didn’t really fancy him that day and has only trialed OK over hurdles.
    Leaderboard won the Wellington Cup last January in New Zealand although well beaten in it last time this year. 5th only start over hurdles in NZ, but I was impressed with his hurdles trial last week.
    The Awesome Son did manage a 2nd at Coleraine last season, but his 2 starts either side of that weren’t great. Credit Crunch has been last in last 3 starts on the flat, but there were at Metro tracks. Didn’t overly impress in his jumping in his trial last week.
    Race 3
    Affluential is a maiden on the flat, but could be a better hurdler based on his trial win last week.
    Dubai Moon won 4 on the bounce in about 2 weeks in January and February on the level. He was poor on his next 3 starts, but then looked good in a hurdle trial. Ran at Kyneton on Thursday and was a close 5th.
    Jack Knows Best won as a long odds on fav on the flat in February. He was then a good 3rd in a stronger race last month. Solid hurdles trial prior to that 3rd.
    This isn’t a strong race, but not sure Oz Legend or Sir Peter did enough on their hurdles debut to carry my money here.
    Race 4
    The feature hurdle is the MJ Bourke and last year’s winner Blandford Lad tries to win it again. That was a good effort to just beat Aaunter Boy, but it was downhill from that last season. He has been last in his 2 flat runs this year although he did easily win a hurdle trial last week. I would add though that he looked like the only one who tried to win the race.
    Fabalot was 4th in the opening contest on this card last year and built on that to finish 2nd in the Galleywood finishing in front of Blandford Lad. After that he won at Casterton before running no sort of race the next time. He then bolted up in the JJ Houlahan on the final day of the season. Has had a couple of prep runs on the flat for this.
    Out And Dreaming was 2nd in this in 2022 but last hurdles run was in June that year. Had 1 flat run last year and 1 in February. Won a hurdle trial a month ago, but suspect he will need this.
    El Diez was a decent 2nd last week and runs pretty much every week, but suspect this will be a bit above him although he does have the fitness edge.
    The Might Spar won last time on the flat in New Zealand. He was also 7th in the New Zealand Cup in November. Won a maiden hurdle last year and then 3rd on his other hurdles start. Promising enough trial last week.
    Race 5 
    Not Usual Dream was 4th in this last season and then 4th in the Australian Steeple. He then won at Sale the following month. He was 2nd on the flat at Ballarat last week.
    Blood And Sand didn’t run that badly last week at Ballarat in the feature chase and a chance if building on that.
    Budd Fox was 2nd in this 2 years ago beaten just 0.2L and then wasn’t seen for 75 weeks. Has been poor on the flat since.
    We then have 5 horses who ran in the 0-114 Steeple last week behind Duke Of Bedford. The best of them was Tom Foolery who was a good 2nd to the impressive winner. Raise Your Sights was 7.25L back in 3rd, Fort Charles 9.5L back in 4th and Dr Dependable and She Shed So 5th and 7th. Given Tom Foolery made a mistake at the last and that race was slightly quicker than the feature I take him to confirm that form from last week.
    Race 6 
    I was hoping Stern Idol was going to run in the feature Steeple of the afternoon because I wanted to see the best jumps horse in Oz in the flesh. He has been so impressive on most of his jumps starts since coming over from France and he bolted up in this race last year. He then failed to finish in the Grand Annual, but he just doesn’t stay that far. He did manage to win the Crisp at Sandown over 4200m, but then disappointed over even further in the Grand National. He looks just in as good form ahead of this jumps prep as he has trialled well and also had a really good 2nd on the flat at Sandown last month. Hard to see how he gets beat and he should bolt up really.
    Rockstar Ronnie did win the Grand Annual and no doubt the ex Dan Skelton horse will be going back there next month. He was well behind Stern Idol in the Crisp on his last jumps start.
    Brungle Bertie was the one who took advantage of Stern Idols poor run in the Grand National and I would imagine he’s another with the Grand Annual as his target. He was a well beaten 4th behind Stern Idol in the Crisp.
    Tolemac won the Australian Stepple last season, but was stuffed in the Crisp and a well beaten 4th in the Grand National.
  6. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Bedlam in Australian Jumps Season 2024   
    Annoyingly Oddschecker doesn’t have the meeting on their site so I will just use Bet365 prices, but others will be betting in it.
    Race 1
    Pure Deal has been backed for this in what is a tight betting market, but I will side with Custom Of The Sea as he looked like a promising sort in Ireland and with him winning on the flat last time he is clearly in good heart in Oz as well. Good race despite the 4 runners.
    Custom Of The Sea 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365
    Race 2
    Credit Crunch has come out and he was put in as 2nd fav which surprised me and it means the price on Leaderboard has come in, but he has the potential to be useful and looks the best of these.
    Race 3
    Betting has it between Jack Knows Best and Dubai Moon which is right for me and I would make the latter the fav so as he isn’t he is the bet.
    Dubai Moon 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365
    Race 4
    I had sort of hoped that it would be possible to back both The Mighty Spar and Fabalot, but that isn’t the case and or me Fabalot is the one who is value. He had some very strong form over hurdles last season and brings the best hurdles form into the race. I’d have him as the market leader myself.
    Fabalot 1pt @ 13/5
    Race 5
    No surprise that Tom Foolery is the fav here given most of the horses in the race are the ones he beat last week. Technically this is a step up in grade, but I think the winner of the 0-114 race was much improved and given he pushed him close it was a strong piece of form. I’m surprised Budd Fox is 2nd in as I suspect he will need this. Not Usual Dream would be the bigger danger for me and Blood And Sand might outrun his odds.
    Tom Foolery 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
    Race 6
    Stern Idol should win this. A good run on the flat means he is in good form and this is his ideal trip and conditions. Rockstar Ronnie ought to be 2nd best, but no doubt this is being used as a prep for the Grand Annual. I am happy to back Leaderboard and Stern Idol in a double.
    Leaderboard and Stern Idol 1pt double @ 1.79/1 with Bet365
  7. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Hotspur88 in Racing Chat - Saturday 13th April   
    Yeah it was poor rides from those in behind as she’s a good horse and you can’t give a horse like her that big a margin, but it was a hell of a performance from her.
  8. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Bedlam in Racing Chat - Saturday 13th April   
    Obviously the Grand National is the main focus, but hopefully I can get you some spending money on the big race by finding some winners on Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick. The track race surprisingly well given all the rain last weekend and it was a profitable day. The weather is set fair for tomorrow so the ground should be decent so no worries on that front.
    Race 6
    The Australian Oaks is New Zealand filly Orchestral’s to lose. She looked really good when winning the New Zealand Derby at the start of March and then she took the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She had to tough it out that day over 2000m and looked like the step back up to 2400m is ideal for her. It is hard to see any of the other horses in behind reversing the form with her. The bigger dangers might come from new form lines with Autumn Angel and Quintessa who was just beaten by NZ Derby 2nd at Moonee Valley last time which obviously ties in with Orchestral.
    Orchestral @ 8/13 with William Hill
    Race 7
    The Sydney Cup doesn’t have the profile of the Melbourne version, but it is still a G1 and it looks a decent renewal of the race. I put up Circle Of Fire last week and I was impressed with his victory so I am going in again with him as the main bet. That race was over 2600m and he has another 600m to go here, but the Queens Vase effort suggests he should stay and with the ground better this week that should help him as well. Andrea Atzeni has come across to Australia for the ride as well. The 7 day back up is always a slight concern, but is something they do often in Australia and he looks to be building up nicely into this.
    Athabascan is interesting as he was very strong in the Tancred last time in the final 100m after taking his time to build momentum in the straight having been tight for room round the corner. He looks ready to peak here up in distance and looks in better form than he was last prep. 
    Ashrun was 4th in the Melbourne Cup and landed the Pakenham Cup with ease on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. He was 3rd in the Tancred and was found to be lame so he has a chance as well. Former Derby winner Serpentine has won his last 2, but I’m not sure he wants this far.
    I am going to have a small bet on Amade at a double figure price though. As he ran an incredible race in the Adelaide Cup last time having stood still when the stalls opened losing 4-5L and then the stirrup strap broke so the rider lost both his irons. For him to finish 4th after all that was a superb effort. We know he stays well and he landed the Geelong Cup in October. This could be his chance to win a bigger Cup.
    Circle Of Fire @ 4/1 with everyone
    Athabascan @ 7 with everyone
    Amade @ 10 with Bet365
    Race 8
    The main race of the card is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The Australian Cup was a good race with Cascadian getting the better of Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside who was only 5th. However I think the ex George Boughey trained Via Sistina can beat them all. She was really good last season winning the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, then 3rd in the Falmouth followed by 2 2nds in the Prix Jean Romanet and the Champion Stakes. All that is clearly top class form. She was then purchased for a small fortune and sent to Chris Waller and she oozed class when winning the Ranvet at Rosehill on her first start in Australia. They didn’t go much of pace, but she was able to quicken up from last place at the 400m marker to go and win in impressive style. Her final 400m splits were very quick. I think she is the best horse in the race and I think the likely stronger pace will suit her even better.
    Via Sistina @ 5/4 with William Hill
  9. Like
    Darran got a reaction from maxironchin in Racing Chat - Saturday 13th April   
    Obviously the Grand National is the main focus, but hopefully I can get you some spending money on the big race by finding some winners on Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick. The track race surprisingly well given all the rain last weekend and it was a profitable day. The weather is set fair for tomorrow so the ground should be decent so no worries on that front.
    Race 6
    The Australian Oaks is New Zealand filly Orchestral’s to lose. She looked really good when winning the New Zealand Derby at the start of March and then she took the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She had to tough it out that day over 2000m and looked like the step back up to 2400m is ideal for her. It is hard to see any of the other horses in behind reversing the form with her. The bigger dangers might come from new form lines with Autumn Angel and Quintessa who was just beaten by NZ Derby 2nd at Moonee Valley last time which obviously ties in with Orchestral.
    Orchestral @ 8/13 with William Hill
    Race 7
    The Sydney Cup doesn’t have the profile of the Melbourne version, but it is still a G1 and it looks a decent renewal of the race. I put up Circle Of Fire last week and I was impressed with his victory so I am going in again with him as the main bet. That race was over 2600m and he has another 600m to go here, but the Queens Vase effort suggests he should stay and with the ground better this week that should help him as well. Andrea Atzeni has come across to Australia for the ride as well. The 7 day back up is always a slight concern, but is something they do often in Australia and he looks to be building up nicely into this.
    Athabascan is interesting as he was very strong in the Tancred last time in the final 100m after taking his time to build momentum in the straight having been tight for room round the corner. He looks ready to peak here up in distance and looks in better form than he was last prep. 
    Ashrun was 4th in the Melbourne Cup and landed the Pakenham Cup with ease on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. He was 3rd in the Tancred and was found to be lame so he has a chance as well. Former Derby winner Serpentine has won his last 2, but I’m not sure he wants this far.
    I am going to have a small bet on Amade at a double figure price though. As he ran an incredible race in the Adelaide Cup last time having stood still when the stalls opened losing 4-5L and then the stirrup strap broke so the rider lost both his irons. For him to finish 4th after all that was a superb effort. We know he stays well and he landed the Geelong Cup in October. This could be his chance to win a bigger Cup.
    Circle Of Fire @ 4/1 with everyone
    Athabascan @ 7 with everyone
    Amade @ 10 with Bet365
    Race 8
    The main race of the card is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The Australian Cup was a good race with Cascadian getting the better of Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside who was only 5th. However I think the ex George Boughey trained Via Sistina can beat them all. She was really good last season winning the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, then 3rd in the Falmouth followed by 2 2nds in the Prix Jean Romanet and the Champion Stakes. All that is clearly top class form. She was then purchased for a small fortune and sent to Chris Waller and she oozed class when winning the Ranvet at Rosehill on her first start in Australia. They didn’t go much of pace, but she was able to quicken up from last place at the 400m marker to go and win in impressive style. Her final 400m splits were very quick. I think she is the best horse in the race and I think the likely stronger pace will suit her even better.
    Via Sistina @ 5/4 with William Hill
  10. Like
    Darran got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Saturday 13th April   
    Obviously the Grand National is the main focus, but hopefully I can get you some spending money on the big race by finding some winners on Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick. The track race surprisingly well given all the rain last weekend and it was a profitable day. The weather is set fair for tomorrow so the ground should be decent so no worries on that front.
    Race 6
    The Australian Oaks is New Zealand filly Orchestral’s to lose. She looked really good when winning the New Zealand Derby at the start of March and then she took the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She had to tough it out that day over 2000m and looked like the step back up to 2400m is ideal for her. It is hard to see any of the other horses in behind reversing the form with her. The bigger dangers might come from new form lines with Autumn Angel and Quintessa who was just beaten by NZ Derby 2nd at Moonee Valley last time which obviously ties in with Orchestral.
    Orchestral @ 8/13 with William Hill
    Race 7
    The Sydney Cup doesn’t have the profile of the Melbourne version, but it is still a G1 and it looks a decent renewal of the race. I put up Circle Of Fire last week and I was impressed with his victory so I am going in again with him as the main bet. That race was over 2600m and he has another 600m to go here, but the Queens Vase effort suggests he should stay and with the ground better this week that should help him as well. Andrea Atzeni has come across to Australia for the ride as well. The 7 day back up is always a slight concern, but is something they do often in Australia and he looks to be building up nicely into this.
    Athabascan is interesting as he was very strong in the Tancred last time in the final 100m after taking his time to build momentum in the straight having been tight for room round the corner. He looks ready to peak here up in distance and looks in better form than he was last prep. 
    Ashrun was 4th in the Melbourne Cup and landed the Pakenham Cup with ease on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. He was 3rd in the Tancred and was found to be lame so he has a chance as well. Former Derby winner Serpentine has won his last 2, but I’m not sure he wants this far.
    I am going to have a small bet on Amade at a double figure price though. As he ran an incredible race in the Adelaide Cup last time having stood still when the stalls opened losing 4-5L and then the stirrup strap broke so the rider lost both his irons. For him to finish 4th after all that was a superb effort. We know he stays well and he landed the Geelong Cup in October. This could be his chance to win a bigger Cup.
    Circle Of Fire @ 4/1 with everyone
    Athabascan @ 7 with everyone
    Amade @ 10 with Bet365
    Race 8
    The main race of the card is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The Australian Cup was a good race with Cascadian getting the better of Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside who was only 5th. However I think the ex George Boughey trained Via Sistina can beat them all. She was really good last season winning the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, then 3rd in the Falmouth followed by 2 2nds in the Prix Jean Romanet and the Champion Stakes. All that is clearly top class form. She was then purchased for a small fortune and sent to Chris Waller and she oozed class when winning the Ranvet at Rosehill on her first start in Australia. They didn’t go much of pace, but she was able to quicken up from last place at the 400m marker to go and win in impressive style. Her final 400m splits were very quick. I think she is the best horse in the race and I think the likely stronger pace will suit her even better.
    Via Sistina @ 5/4 with William Hill
  11. Like
    Darran got a reaction from The Brigadier in Racing Chat - Saturday 13th April   
    Obviously the Grand National is the main focus, but hopefully I can get you some spending money on the big race by finding some winners on Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick. The track race surprisingly well given all the rain last weekend and it was a profitable day. The weather is set fair for tomorrow so the ground should be decent so no worries on that front.
    Race 6
    The Australian Oaks is New Zealand filly Orchestral’s to lose. She looked really good when winning the New Zealand Derby at the start of March and then she took the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She had to tough it out that day over 2000m and looked like the step back up to 2400m is ideal for her. It is hard to see any of the other horses in behind reversing the form with her. The bigger dangers might come from new form lines with Autumn Angel and Quintessa who was just beaten by NZ Derby 2nd at Moonee Valley last time which obviously ties in with Orchestral.
    Orchestral @ 8/13 with William Hill
    Race 7
    The Sydney Cup doesn’t have the profile of the Melbourne version, but it is still a G1 and it looks a decent renewal of the race. I put up Circle Of Fire last week and I was impressed with his victory so I am going in again with him as the main bet. That race was over 2600m and he has another 600m to go here, but the Queens Vase effort suggests he should stay and with the ground better this week that should help him as well. Andrea Atzeni has come across to Australia for the ride as well. The 7 day back up is always a slight concern, but is something they do often in Australia and he looks to be building up nicely into this.
    Athabascan is interesting as he was very strong in the Tancred last time in the final 100m after taking his time to build momentum in the straight having been tight for room round the corner. He looks ready to peak here up in distance and looks in better form than he was last prep. 
    Ashrun was 4th in the Melbourne Cup and landed the Pakenham Cup with ease on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. He was 3rd in the Tancred and was found to be lame so he has a chance as well. Former Derby winner Serpentine has won his last 2, but I’m not sure he wants this far.
    I am going to have a small bet on Amade at a double figure price though. As he ran an incredible race in the Adelaide Cup last time having stood still when the stalls opened losing 4-5L and then the stirrup strap broke so the rider lost both his irons. For him to finish 4th after all that was a superb effort. We know he stays well and he landed the Geelong Cup in October. This could be his chance to win a bigger Cup.
    Circle Of Fire @ 4/1 with everyone
    Athabascan @ 7 with everyone
    Amade @ 10 with Bet365
    Race 8
    The main race of the card is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The Australian Cup was a good race with Cascadian getting the better of Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside who was only 5th. However I think the ex George Boughey trained Via Sistina can beat them all. She was really good last season winning the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, then 3rd in the Falmouth followed by 2 2nds in the Prix Jean Romanet and the Champion Stakes. All that is clearly top class form. She was then purchased for a small fortune and sent to Chris Waller and she oozed class when winning the Ranvet at Rosehill on her first start in Australia. They didn’t go much of pace, but she was able to quicken up from last place at the 400m marker to go and win in impressive style. Her final 400m splits were very quick. I think she is the best horse in the race and I think the likely stronger pace will suit her even better.
    Via Sistina @ 5/4 with William Hill
  12. Like
    Darran got a reaction from MCLARKE in Australian Jumps Season 2024   
    Off to Pakenham we go on Sunday for a whole jumps card and personally it has the extra bonus as I will actually be at Pakenham to watch the action and it should be a good card. Hopefully it can build on last weeks profits as well. To start with it will just be my notes and then I will add bets when the races are priced up.
    Race 1
    Only 4 runners in this 1 jumps win hurdle. Custom Of The Sea has come from Joseph O’Brians and he made two starts over hurdles for him. He won impressively on debut in a maiden at Killarney last May and was then 2nd at Ballinrobe a few weeks later. Media Naranja was the horse who beat him that day and he is rated 122 at the moment and ran at The Festival. Since going to Oz he has had 3 flat runs and won the last of them at Ballarat so he is in good form. He has trialled a couple of times since to keep him ticking over and he ought to be capable of decent things over hurdles in Australia.
    Calvi beat Elementry at Warrnambool by 5.2L although the latter was pretty green that day and clearly benefitted from the experience when winning back there a couple of weeks later. It wouldn’t surprise me if he reverses the form as he could get an easy lead.
    Pure Deal was 3rd in a maiden at this meeting last year in a hot race and then he won his maiden at Warrnambool. He was very disappointing at Sandown on his next start and he hasn’t been seen since in a actual race. He has had plenty of trials and has won the 2 hurdles won he has had.
    Race 2
    Aqulleon showed a bit of ability over hurdles in 2 starts last season when a 8.2L 3rd at Warrnambool in May and a 4.7L 4th at Sale in June. Well beaten in 3 flat starts so far this year.
    Gambu was 3rd at Warrnambool 2.7L behind Calvi and was then well beaten at the time when falling a couple of weeks later. 5.1L 4th last week wasn’t bad though.
    Huntley Castle was meant to run last week and I didn’t really fancy him that day and has only trialed OK over hurdles.
    Leaderboard won the Wellington Cup last January in New Zealand although well beaten in it last time this year. 5th only start over hurdles in NZ, but I was impressed with his hurdles trial last week.
    The Awesome Son did manage a 2nd at Coleraine last season, but his 2 starts either side of that weren’t great. Credit Crunch has been last in last 3 starts on the flat, but there were at Metro tracks. Didn’t overly impress in his jumping in his trial last week.
    Race 3
    Affluential is a maiden on the flat, but could be a better hurdler based on his trial win last week.
    Dubai Moon won 4 on the bounce in about 2 weeks in January and February on the level. He was poor on his next 3 starts, but then looked good in a hurdle trial. Ran at Kyneton on Thursday and was a close 5th.
    Jack Knows Best won as a long odds on fav on the flat in February. He was then a good 3rd in a stronger race last month. Solid hurdles trial prior to that 3rd.
    This isn’t a strong race, but not sure Oz Legend or Sir Peter did enough on their hurdles debut to carry my money here.
    Race 4
    The feature hurdle is the MJ Bourke and last year’s winner Blandford Lad tries to win it again. That was a good effort to just beat Aaunter Boy, but it was downhill from that last season. He has been last in his 2 flat runs this year although he did easily win a hurdle trial last week. I would add though that he looked like the only one who tried to win the race.
    Fabalot was 4th in the opening contest on this card last year and built on that to finish 2nd in the Galleywood finishing in front of Blandford Lad. After that he won at Casterton before running no sort of race the next time. He then bolted up in the JJ Houlahan on the final day of the season. Has had a couple of prep runs on the flat for this.
    Out And Dreaming was 2nd in this in 2022 but last hurdles run was in June that year. Had 1 flat run last year and 1 in February. Won a hurdle trial a month ago, but suspect he will need this.
    El Diez was a decent 2nd last week and runs pretty much every week, but suspect this will be a bit above him although he does have the fitness edge.
    The Might Spar won last time on the flat in New Zealand. He was also 7th in the New Zealand Cup in November. Won a maiden hurdle last year and then 3rd on his other hurdles start. Promising enough trial last week.
    Race 5 
    Not Usual Dream was 4th in this last season and then 4th in the Australian Steeple. He then won at Sale the following month. He was 2nd on the flat at Ballarat last week.
    Blood And Sand didn’t run that badly last week at Ballarat in the feature chase and a chance if building on that.
    Budd Fox was 2nd in this 2 years ago beaten just 0.2L and then wasn’t seen for 75 weeks. Has been poor on the flat since.
    We then have 5 horses who ran in the 0-114 Steeple last week behind Duke Of Bedford. The best of them was Tom Foolery who was a good 2nd to the impressive winner. Raise Your Sights was 7.25L back in 3rd, Fort Charles 9.5L back in 4th and Dr Dependable and She Shed So 5th and 7th. Given Tom Foolery made a mistake at the last and that race was slightly quicker than the feature I take him to confirm that form from last week.
    Race 6 
    I was hoping Stern Idol was going to run in the feature Steeple of the afternoon because I wanted to see the best jumps horse in Oz in the flesh. He has been so impressive on most of his jumps starts since coming over from France and he bolted up in this race last year. He then failed to finish in the Grand Annual, but he just doesn’t stay that far. He did manage to win the Crisp at Sandown over 4200m, but then disappointed over even further in the Grand National. He looks just in as good form ahead of this jumps prep as he has trialled well and also had a really good 2nd on the flat at Sandown last month. Hard to see how he gets beat and he should bolt up really.
    Rockstar Ronnie did win the Grand Annual and no doubt the ex Dan Skelton horse will be going back there next month. He was well behind Stern Idol in the Crisp on his last jumps start.
    Brungle Bertie was the one who took advantage of Stern Idols poor run in the Grand National and I would imagine he’s another with the Grand Annual as his target. He was a well beaten 4th behind Stern Idol in the Crisp.
    Tolemac won the Australian Stepple last season, but was stuffed in the Crisp and a well beaten 4th in the Grand National.
  13. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Brahmin in Racing Chat - Saturday 13th April   
    Obviously the Grand National is the main focus, but hopefully I can get you some spending money on the big race by finding some winners on Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick. The track race surprisingly well given all the rain last weekend and it was a profitable day. The weather is set fair for tomorrow so the ground should be decent so no worries on that front.
    Race 6
    The Australian Oaks is New Zealand filly Orchestral’s to lose. She looked really good when winning the New Zealand Derby at the start of March and then she took the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She had to tough it out that day over 2000m and looked like the step back up to 2400m is ideal for her. It is hard to see any of the other horses in behind reversing the form with her. The bigger dangers might come from new form lines with Autumn Angel and Quintessa who was just beaten by NZ Derby 2nd at Moonee Valley last time which obviously ties in with Orchestral.
    Orchestral @ 8/13 with William Hill
    Race 7
    The Sydney Cup doesn’t have the profile of the Melbourne version, but it is still a G1 and it looks a decent renewal of the race. I put up Circle Of Fire last week and I was impressed with his victory so I am going in again with him as the main bet. That race was over 2600m and he has another 600m to go here, but the Queens Vase effort suggests he should stay and with the ground better this week that should help him as well. Andrea Atzeni has come across to Australia for the ride as well. The 7 day back up is always a slight concern, but is something they do often in Australia and he looks to be building up nicely into this.
    Athabascan is interesting as he was very strong in the Tancred last time in the final 100m after taking his time to build momentum in the straight having been tight for room round the corner. He looks ready to peak here up in distance and looks in better form than he was last prep. 
    Ashrun was 4th in the Melbourne Cup and landed the Pakenham Cup with ease on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. He was 3rd in the Tancred and was found to be lame so he has a chance as well. Former Derby winner Serpentine has won his last 2, but I’m not sure he wants this far.
    I am going to have a small bet on Amade at a double figure price though. As he ran an incredible race in the Adelaide Cup last time having stood still when the stalls opened losing 4-5L and then the stirrup strap broke so the rider lost both his irons. For him to finish 4th after all that was a superb effort. We know he stays well and he landed the Geelong Cup in October. This could be his chance to win a bigger Cup.
    Circle Of Fire @ 4/1 with everyone
    Athabascan @ 7 with everyone
    Amade @ 10 with Bet365
    Race 8
    The main race of the card is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The Australian Cup was a good race with Cascadian getting the better of Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside who was only 5th. However I think the ex George Boughey trained Via Sistina can beat them all. She was really good last season winning the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, then 3rd in the Falmouth followed by 2 2nds in the Prix Jean Romanet and the Champion Stakes. All that is clearly top class form. She was then purchased for a small fortune and sent to Chris Waller and she oozed class when winning the Ranvet at Rosehill on her first start in Australia. They didn’t go much of pace, but she was able to quicken up from last place at the 400m marker to go and win in impressive style. Her final 400m splits were very quick. I think she is the best horse in the race and I think the likely stronger pace will suit her even better.
    Via Sistina @ 5/4 with William Hill
  14. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Hotspur88 in Racing Chat - Saturday 13th April   
    Obviously the Grand National is the main focus, but hopefully I can get you some spending money on the big race by finding some winners on Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick. The track race surprisingly well given all the rain last weekend and it was a profitable day. The weather is set fair for tomorrow so the ground should be decent so no worries on that front.
    Race 6
    The Australian Oaks is New Zealand filly Orchestral’s to lose. She looked really good when winning the New Zealand Derby at the start of March and then she took the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She had to tough it out that day over 2000m and looked like the step back up to 2400m is ideal for her. It is hard to see any of the other horses in behind reversing the form with her. The bigger dangers might come from new form lines with Autumn Angel and Quintessa who was just beaten by NZ Derby 2nd at Moonee Valley last time which obviously ties in with Orchestral.
    Orchestral @ 8/13 with William Hill
    Race 7
    The Sydney Cup doesn’t have the profile of the Melbourne version, but it is still a G1 and it looks a decent renewal of the race. I put up Circle Of Fire last week and I was impressed with his victory so I am going in again with him as the main bet. That race was over 2600m and he has another 600m to go here, but the Queens Vase effort suggests he should stay and with the ground better this week that should help him as well. Andrea Atzeni has come across to Australia for the ride as well. The 7 day back up is always a slight concern, but is something they do often in Australia and he looks to be building up nicely into this.
    Athabascan is interesting as he was very strong in the Tancred last time in the final 100m after taking his time to build momentum in the straight having been tight for room round the corner. He looks ready to peak here up in distance and looks in better form than he was last prep. 
    Ashrun was 4th in the Melbourne Cup and landed the Pakenham Cup with ease on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. He was 3rd in the Tancred and was found to be lame so he has a chance as well. Former Derby winner Serpentine has won his last 2, but I’m not sure he wants this far.
    I am going to have a small bet on Amade at a double figure price though. As he ran an incredible race in the Adelaide Cup last time having stood still when the stalls opened losing 4-5L and then the stirrup strap broke so the rider lost both his irons. For him to finish 4th after all that was a superb effort. We know he stays well and he landed the Geelong Cup in October. This could be his chance to win a bigger Cup.
    Circle Of Fire @ 4/1 with everyone
    Athabascan @ 7 with everyone
    Amade @ 10 with Bet365
    Race 8
    The main race of the card is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The Australian Cup was a good race with Cascadian getting the better of Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside who was only 5th. However I think the ex George Boughey trained Via Sistina can beat them all. She was really good last season winning the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, then 3rd in the Falmouth followed by 2 2nds in the Prix Jean Romanet and the Champion Stakes. All that is clearly top class form. She was then purchased for a small fortune and sent to Chris Waller and she oozed class when winning the Ranvet at Rosehill on her first start in Australia. They didn’t go much of pace, but she was able to quicken up from last place at the 400m marker to go and win in impressive style. Her final 400m splits were very quick. I think she is the best horse in the race and I think the likely stronger pace will suit her even better.
    Via Sistina @ 5/4 with William Hill
  15. Like
    Darran got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Saturday 13th April   
    Obviously the Grand National is the main focus, but hopefully I can get you some spending money on the big race by finding some winners on Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick. The track race surprisingly well given all the rain last weekend and it was a profitable day. The weather is set fair for tomorrow so the ground should be decent so no worries on that front.
    Race 6
    The Australian Oaks is New Zealand filly Orchestral’s to lose. She looked really good when winning the New Zealand Derby at the start of March and then she took the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She had to tough it out that day over 2000m and looked like the step back up to 2400m is ideal for her. It is hard to see any of the other horses in behind reversing the form with her. The bigger dangers might come from new form lines with Autumn Angel and Quintessa who was just beaten by NZ Derby 2nd at Moonee Valley last time which obviously ties in with Orchestral.
    Orchestral @ 8/13 with William Hill
    Race 7
    The Sydney Cup doesn’t have the profile of the Melbourne version, but it is still a G1 and it looks a decent renewal of the race. I put up Circle Of Fire last week and I was impressed with his victory so I am going in again with him as the main bet. That race was over 2600m and he has another 600m to go here, but the Queens Vase effort suggests he should stay and with the ground better this week that should help him as well. Andrea Atzeni has come across to Australia for the ride as well. The 7 day back up is always a slight concern, but is something they do often in Australia and he looks to be building up nicely into this.
    Athabascan is interesting as he was very strong in the Tancred last time in the final 100m after taking his time to build momentum in the straight having been tight for room round the corner. He looks ready to peak here up in distance and looks in better form than he was last prep. 
    Ashrun was 4th in the Melbourne Cup and landed the Pakenham Cup with ease on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. He was 3rd in the Tancred and was found to be lame so he has a chance as well. Former Derby winner Serpentine has won his last 2, but I’m not sure he wants this far.
    I am going to have a small bet on Amade at a double figure price though. As he ran an incredible race in the Adelaide Cup last time having stood still when the stalls opened losing 4-5L and then the stirrup strap broke so the rider lost both his irons. For him to finish 4th after all that was a superb effort. We know he stays well and he landed the Geelong Cup in October. This could be his chance to win a bigger Cup.
    Circle Of Fire @ 4/1 with everyone
    Athabascan @ 7 with everyone
    Amade @ 10 with Bet365
    Race 8
    The main race of the card is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The Australian Cup was a good race with Cascadian getting the better of Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside who was only 5th. However I think the ex George Boughey trained Via Sistina can beat them all. She was really good last season winning the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, then 3rd in the Falmouth followed by 2 2nds in the Prix Jean Romanet and the Champion Stakes. All that is clearly top class form. She was then purchased for a small fortune and sent to Chris Waller and she oozed class when winning the Ranvet at Rosehill on her first start in Australia. They didn’t go much of pace, but she was able to quicken up from last place at the 400m marker to go and win in impressive style. Her final 400m splits were very quick. I think she is the best horse in the race and I think the likely stronger pace will suit her even better.
    Via Sistina @ 5/4 with William Hill
  16. Like
    Darran got a reaction from DanV89 in Aintree Foxhunters’ preview   
    A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race.   Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked.   Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again.   Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner.   Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough.   Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then.   Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that.   Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely.   Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough.   Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players.   Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here.   Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view.   Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season.    Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock.   Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him.   Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round.   Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side.   Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race.   Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour.   The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing ground   Time Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal.   Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins.   Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so.   The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite.   Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him.   The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view.   Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5.   Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30) Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)
  17. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Johnrobertson in Aintree Foxhunters’ preview   
    A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race.   Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked.   Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again.   Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner.   Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough.   Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then.   Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that.   Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely.   Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough.   Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players.   Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here.   Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view.   Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season.    Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock.   Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him.   Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round.   Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side.   Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race.   Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour.   The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing ground   Time Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal.   Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins.   Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so.   The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite.   Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him.   The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view.   Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5.   Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30) Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)
  18. Like
    Darran got a reaction from kroni in Aintree Foxhunters’ preview   
    A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race.   Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked.   Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again.   Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner.   Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough.   Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then.   Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that.   Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely.   Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough.   Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players.   Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here.   Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view.   Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season.    Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock.   Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him.   Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round.   Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side.   Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race.   Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour.   The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing ground   Time Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal.   Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins.   Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so.   The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite.   Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him.   The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view.   Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5.   Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30) Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)
  19. Like
    Darran got a reaction from MCLARKE in Aintree Foxhunters’ preview   
    A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race.   Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked.   Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again.   Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner.   Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough.   Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then.   Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that.   Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely.   Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough.   Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players.   Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here.   Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view.   Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season.    Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock.   Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him.   Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round.   Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side.   Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race.   Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour.   The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing ground   Time Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal.   Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins.   Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so.   The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite.   Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him.   The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view.   Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5.   Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30) Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)
  20. Like
    Darran got a reaction from daveg in Aintree Foxhunters’ preview   
    A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race.   Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked.   Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again.   Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner.   Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough.   Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then.   Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that.   Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely.   Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough.   Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players.   Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here.   Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view.   Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season.    Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock.   Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him.   Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round.   Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side.   Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race.   Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour.   The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing ground   Time Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal.   Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins.   Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so.   The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite.   Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him.   The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view.   Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5.   Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30) Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)
  21. Like
    Darran got a reaction from G1dders in Non league predictions - 6th April   
    Prices from Monday morning   Boreham Wood to beat Rochdale 1pt @ 11/5 with Skybet and Betfred (9/4 with Hills and take up to 15/8) Halifax to beat Oldham (Wednesday night) 1pt @ 11/8 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 6/5) Dorking to beat Wealdstone (Thursday night and note that Wealdstone play on Tuesday as well) 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 13/8) Worksop to beat Guiseley 1pt @ 13/10 with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Stamford to beat Needham Market 1pt @ 10/3 with Skybet, Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 9/4) Winchester to beat Poole 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet and Betfred (11/5 with Bet365 and take up to 7/4) Dorchester to beat Sholing 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 13/8) Potters Bar to beat Horsham 1pt @ 3/1 with Skybet, Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 2/1)
  22. Like
    Darran got a reaction from andypandy23 in Non league predictions - 6th April   
    Prices from Monday morning   Boreham Wood to beat Rochdale 1pt @ 11/5 with Skybet and Betfred (9/4 with Hills and take up to 15/8) Halifax to beat Oldham (Wednesday night) 1pt @ 11/8 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 6/5) Dorking to beat Wealdstone (Thursday night and note that Wealdstone play on Tuesday as well) 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 13/8) Worksop to beat Guiseley 1pt @ 13/10 with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Stamford to beat Needham Market 1pt @ 10/3 with Skybet, Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 9/4) Winchester to beat Poole 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet and Betfred (11/5 with Bet365 and take up to 7/4) Dorchester to beat Sholing 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 13/8) Potters Bar to beat Horsham 1pt @ 3/1 with Skybet, Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 2/1)
  23. Like
    Darran got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in Aintree Foxhunters’ preview   
    A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race.   Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked.   Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again.   Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner.   Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough.   Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then.   Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that.   Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely.   Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough.   Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players.   Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here.   Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view.   Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season.    Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock.   Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him.   Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round.   Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side.   Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race.   Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour.   The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing ground   Time Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal.   Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins.   Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so.   The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite.   Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him.   The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view.   Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5.   Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30) Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)
  24. Like
    Darran got a reaction from yossa6133 in Aintree Foxhunters’ preview   
    A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race.   Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked.   Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again.   Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner.   Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough.   Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then.   Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that.   Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely.   Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough.   Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players.   Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here.   Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view.   Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season.    Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock.   Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him.   Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round.   Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side.   Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race.   Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour.   The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing ground   Time Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal.   Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins.   Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so.   The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite.   Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him.   The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view.   Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5.   Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30) Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)
  25. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Hotspur88 in Aintree Foxhunters’ preview   
    A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race.   Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked.   Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again.   Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner.   Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough.   Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then.   Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that.   Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely.   Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough.   Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players.   Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here.   Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view.   Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season.    Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock.   Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him.   Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round.   Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side.   Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race.   Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour.   The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing ground   Time Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal.   Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins.   Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so.   The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite.   Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him.   The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view.   Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5.   Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30) Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)
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