Darran

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Posts posted by Darran


  1. An ex UK horse interests me at Pakenham (also known as Racing.com Park) tomorrow morning. Race 7 is due off at 11.30 and Daughter In Law is set to make her 2nd start in Oz. Rather unusually she is a sprinter going Down Under rather than a middle distance type which we are used to. She was trained in Ireland before having a couple of starts for Roger Charlton. She only has a maiden win to her name and only beat 1 home in the Queen Mary, but she ran with credit at both Glorious Goodwood and The Ebor meeting. She was next seen last month when a massive drifter in the betting at Pakenham. She got herself back in the field having been drawn on the outside and didn't get the clearest of runs in the straight. She stayed on in eye-catching style though to finish 5 behind the re-opposing Zimowy. Given the drift connections must have thought she would come on for the run and if she does from a run that was full of promise then she must surely go close. She has a better draw here and stepping up to 1200m looks like it will suit as well. She had a rating of 87 over here and this is only a BM64 Handicap (that means horses that are rated 64 carry 60kg, but horses rated higher can run and the top weight is rated 71 in this contest for example) so you would like to think she can turn out to be better than this level.

    The main danger is Rapidora who has been running in higher classes than this and ran a good race at this level last time at Bendigo back in February. That race hasn't worked out too badly either with the winner winning a Listed Race and the 3rd winning next time out. The problem with here though is she only has a maiden win to here name in 13 starts and has finished 2nd 5 times. She has the form good enough to win this, but I think Daughter In Law can build on that first Australian run and has more progression in her.

    Daughter In Law @ 7/2 with Betfred


  2. On 4/3/2020 at 12:20 PM, GrantRox said:

    Great article. Loads of examples of why PPG  just doesn’t work to resolve this season. 

    Also take Longridge Town, who are the best footballing side I have seen in the NWCFL Prem this season.
     

    They have invested to try and secure one of the top 3 promotion places on offer just for this season. They also had an excellent run in the FA Vase which has left them with almost a third of their league fixtures still to play! If promotion was decided on PPG they would miss out by just 0.06 of a point. That is just as unfair as any of the other examples that are being quoted by the PPG advocates. 

    How would Longridge react if the FA simply invented a brand new rule that deprived them of this one-off chance of promotion with a top 3 finish?

    The unfortunate truth is that it is a 38 game league season which can’t be completed. It’s that simple really. 

    And I say that even though I am completely gutted that I am not going to be watching my lad play in a cup semi-final for Runcorn Town after working his nuts off to win his place back after recovering from injury. 

    Great example that Grant and I’m sure there are other examples throughout the leagues. The problem is those who have an agenda where ppg works for them are desperate to get it changed. I understand their frustrations but there was way too much of the season left to have known what would have happened.


  3. We should have been looking forward to Grand National Day, but instead the best action in the world comes from Randwick where it is Day 1 of The Championships (Day 2 is next Saturday). There is some top quality action on the card and I have selections in 6 races.

    Race 1 (2.10)

    This looks a two horse race and I think we can take a chance on the 2nd favourite here Damaged. He was green on his debut on Boxing Day when 2nd, but 10 days ago he returned at Warwick Farm and looked a very good horse as he clocked a quick time. If he comes on for that again then he looks the value in the race compared to the favourite Rulership.

    Damaged @ 27/10 with Bet365

    Race 5 (4.35)

    A really competitive race as the betting suggests and a couple in Raheen House and Mirage Dancer who British punters will recognise. I am not putting either of them up though and instead going with Gallic Chieftain and Youngstar. I have followed Gallic Chieftain since November 2016 where on the final day of my trip to Australia I was watching Racing.com whilst my wife packed. This former French horse was having his 2nd start in Australia and he was one of the biggest eye-catchers I have ever seen. He duly won 2 of his next 3 starts and should have won the other as well. I thought he might turn out to be a Melbourne Cup horse, but he has never managed to get into the race. He has done well enough though and managed to win this race last year in really good style. That was his last win, but he was a bit unlucky the week after in the Sydney Cup and last prep was 2nd in a Group 1 over 2400m. He clearly thrives here, loves a bit of dig in the ground and is capable of running a big race again.

    Youngstar was a horse I really fancied for the Melbourne Cup in 2018 and she ran well enough to finish 6th. I thought she would progress from that, but she hasn't really although I do think there is a sign she is capable of running well here. She ran a cracking race to finish 2nd to Shared Ambition here a month ago and ran OK in the G1 Ranvet behind Addeybb. She handles a wet track and stepping up to this trip at this level should suit.

    Gallic Chieftain e/w @ 15/2 with William Hill & Betfred

    Youngstar e/w @ 13/2 with William Hill & Betfred

    Race 7 (5.55)

    This is the Australian Derby and I am keen on Castlevecchio here. He was really impressive a couple of weeks ago when landing the Rosehill Guineas and he looked as if he would improve again for the step-up to this trip. He showed his class when a really good 2nd in the Cox Plate last year. Warning was behind him there and I am not sure he is in the same form as he was when winning the VRC Derby in the spring. I think Castlevecchio can uphold the form.

    Castlevecchio @ 2/1 with Bet365

    Race 8 (6.35)

    This is a top class renewal of the T J Smith. Santa Ana Lane won this last year although I am not sure he is in as good form this time around. I think Bivouac is better than he was able to show at Moonee Valley last time when Loving Gaby was a good winner. He could well reverse the form around here as Loving Gaby does seem to love the Valley. 

    I have a love hate relationship with Nature Strip. Whenever I back him he losses and whenever I take him on he seems to win. Hopefully I can get him right here as when he is at his best I think he is the best sprinter in the world. The win in the Darley Sprint Classic at Flemington in November was one of the best sprinting performances I have seen in the last few years. 1st up he was disappointing at Flemington in November, but he bounced straight back to win here over 1000m last month beating Redzel by 3L. He was set to come to Royal Ascot and it is a shame he is unlikely to get a chance to do that now, but hopefully he can show his sprinting dominance here.

    I am going to back Pierata e/w as well. He was only just beaten by Nature Strip in the Galaxy last year and on that form he is over priced. He was only 5th in this after that but then won a G1 over 1400m here later in the month. I thought he ran a nice race 1st up in the Galaxy last month when a good 5th off top weight. No doubt he will improve for that and he looks a big player.

    Nature Strip @ 13/5 with Bet365

    Pierata e/w @ 6/1 with Betfred (4 places)

    Race 9 (7.15)

    The Doncaster Mile is the feature on the card and it is wide open. I am going to have a small play on ex Irish horse Shared Ambition. He is now trained by Chris Waller and he has looked really progressive. He was especially over 2800m on Melbourne Cup day. He was beaten 1st up over this trip at Warwick Farm, but then as I mention above he won at Randwick last month. Now the concern is the drop back to 1600m, but Waller knows what he is doing and he gets in here off a light weight. With William Hill, Betfred and Betway all going 5 places I think at the very least he can get in the 5 and we know he will be doing his best work late.

    Shard Ambition @ 8/1 with William Hill

    Race 10 (7.50)

    She is short, but Rubisaki should win the last race on the card. She has won 6 of her 8 races and has been placed in the other 2. So far this prep she has won at Warwick Farm and then was very good when winning a G2 at Flemington last month. The slight concern is the draw, but granted luck in running she should be too good for these and she is proven on a wet track.

    Rubisaki @ Evs with everyone


  4. 1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

    I'm convinced Tiger Roll will be placed, the price of 5/1 at a 1/5 odds just stinks, its a good move by the bookies to generate turnover and just give the money back to the customers to bet on something else.

    So who will mug him on the run-in??

    My top 4

    1 Potters Corner

    2 Tiger Roll

    3 Any Second Now

    4 Walk In The Mill

    :ok

     

    The computer set the odds not the bookies


  5. Let’s say no football can take place until 2021. How can that possibly be classed as the same season? That is a long time and teams will show very different form. You void now then teams can concentrate on getting teams ready for the next season. Also as I mention in the original piece if you restart what happens if clubs then get forced into lockdown because of the virus? You run the risk of a further delay. Also how long do you make the resumption? As I state Morpeth have 15 games to play. How long do you give them to play them? 


  6. The problem is though there is no thought to how performances will be for the final few games of the season so you reward performances that have already happened which isn’t fair on what teams would have done. When you have a team who has 15 games left that is huge. Teams entered the season with the rules being based on how teams did over a full season not part of a season. Obviously more specific rules will be put in place on the future but legally I think the leagues would be on very shaky ground if they used ppg. My guess is the premier league will finish somehow because of the tv money


  7. Clearly there are more important things going on in the world at the moment, but I sort of feel the talk about how the football divisions are going to be settled is an escapism from what is going on, which is pretty much what sport is anyway. I have already been pretty vocal on Twitter on how I think things should be sorted, but I think writing a post on here is worthwhile as I can go into more detail.

    First of all the ideal situation would be for the season to be finished. The problem here though is no one knows when that will be possible. The Premier League can get away to a certain extent with playing behind closed doors as the TV money is way more than anything they get through the turnstiles. Non-League sides obviously could play behind closed doors, especially the smaller ones who don't get much of a crowd. However that crowd provide vital money and teams don't have much of an income without people being there. It is hard to see how the public are going to be allowed to go to watch sport anytime soon given the situation. I think it will be months before we would be able to finish the season with a crowd. For Non-League sides that brings about all sort of issues with paying players as they stop getting paid on the last day of the season in April. Unless something happens that makes it complicated for teams and players. Also what has to be factored in is we are basically having a close season at the moment. Clubs aren't going to be to speed to start straight away. They are going to need a training time and if possible friendlies.

    One interesting point the Lewes chairman made in Sunday's Non-League Paper is that if the season was played to a conclusion you would get teams with nothing to play for playing a youth team so they didn't have to spend much or even anything on players. I can certainly see that happening in the circumstances. He also mentions about a possible further outbreak of COVID-19. It is hardly going to go away completely and all it would take is for someone connected with one club to cause a further delay to things. I know that 60 odd clubs have signed a letter asking for the FA to delay the decision, but I am not sure that helps things massively. Quite a few clubs also want a decision asap and that is what the FA has done.

    Now onto the main point as to how the season should be settled. South Shields, Jersey Bulls and Vauxhall Motors are especially annoyed by the FA's decision because they have either already won promotion or look set to win the league. South Shields are 12 points clear with 9 games to play although FCUM in 2nd do have a game in hand, but clearly it would be a surprise if South Shields didn't go onto win the title. They have spent plenty of money to get themselves up the pyramid so they obviously feel some of that has been wasted if the season is made void. The problem is though you have to look at all divisions and other leagues are much tighter.

    Let's look at the National League North were York are 2 points clear of Kings Lynn. Kings Lynn though have two games in hand. On points per game (PPG) Kings Lynn would win the title. However they have only picked up 4 points in their last 6 games and have lost 4 of them. Based on that you would hardly be confident they would win those two games in hand or even go on to win the title. York have picked up 10 points in their last 6 games. Some might say you could promote them both, but then the other possible play-off teams are going to be really annoyed if you just promote the team who finished 2nd and don't forget in the 3 National League's the play-offs go down to 7th place.

    Barrow are 4 points clear in the National League and manger Ian Evatt is adamant they will win the title if able to play out the season, but of course he is going to say that. Harrogate are 2nd and both teams have 9 games left. Also on Wednesday they were due to play each other at Harrogate. Win that and the gap is down to 1. Given they have got 5 more points than Barrow in their last 10 games it is certainly possible that Harrogate could catch them and win the title. Reverse the situation and you can bet that Evatt would not be so desperate for the season to be decided by PPG. You also couldn't rule out Notts County who are finishing strongly after a not surprising slow start. Why should County be punished for having a slow start to the season when they still have 8 games to play and have got themselves into a strong position. Teams come in and out of form and there is still plenty of time for things to change.

    Tamworth are one of the clubs who have signed the letter and they would have won their league on PPG, but their league is really tight and having backed them for the title I hoped they would win the league, Royston would have at the very least pushed them all the way.

    I have seen it suggested that PPG would at least be fair to those who have had a good season and deserve promotion, but until you have won the title nothing is certain and even then you have to consider the whole league. Yes there will be teams at the bottom who would have gone down and get another season to try and stay up if the league is voided, but on the other hand there are plenty of clubs who were looking capable of getting themselves out of the relegation zone. I'm going to use my own club Gloucester as an example here. This time last season we would have gone down under PPG as we went on a long run without a win mid season. A new manager came in during January and in the end we were safe before the last game of the season, which was a minor miracle. There will be other clubs in that sort of situation so how can you relegate sides and not give them the chance to get out. I keep seeing the table doesn't lie, but that is rubbish given how much of the season is left and the fact teams have played a different amount of games.

    That last point brings me onto Morpeth in the Northern Premier League. They have 15 games still to play having played just 27 games so far. They have 6 games in hand over South Shields and if they did happen to win them all they would end up just 3 points behind them. Chances are given they had so many games to fit in they wouldn't have won them all, but that also means if we were to carry on with the season how on earth would they be able to fit 15 games in to say a month to finish the season as quickly as possible.That would mean them playing a game every other day which is hardly a good look for the league and other teams are also going to suffer as a consequence of Morpeth's games having to be squeezed in. Also if you used PPG they would automatically go into the play-off places, but as Warrington manager Paul Carden said in the Non-League paper PPG doesn't take injury, suspension, travel and fatigue into account.

    Some teams will have easier run ins than others. If for example you have yet to play Redditch who have only 12 points in the Southern League Premier Central, yet others have played them twice then you will be annoyed that you have more than likely missed out on 3 points. 

    If you do use PPG then what do you do with the play-offs? As I mention above some say promote the 2nd team, but then you annoy a lot of other clubs who were expecting a play-off berth and just because you finish 2nd that doesn't mean you win the play-offs. I guess you could try and squeeze in the play-offs at some stage, but again it takes up vital time before a new season can start.

    The Northern League chairman was quoted in the NLP as to why they choose to void the season and he mentioned the Isthmian League chairman had pointed out that they still had 25% of the season still to play. That is a huge amount of games and I know that clubs want to look after their own interests, but you have to look at the bigger picture and realise that voiding the season is the only fair way of dealing with the issue. There are too many unknowns to finish the season in any other way in my opinion. South Shields are saying they will get the lawyers in which quite frankly is ridiculous given what is going on in the world right now. Also if you settled the season on PPG you would see way more clubs up in arms about the decision. As some managers and clubs have said it is best to just get on with the decision that has been made and focus the energy on making sure all the clubs survive because plenty will be struggling to do so and regardless of what happens with the 2019/20 season I suspect the Non-League landscape will look very different for the whenever the next season starts.

    The National League are set to meet on Tuesday and I guess we will find out in due course what they plan to do. Apparently they were taken off the original FA ruling at the 11th hour as they want to see the season out. I can't see the FA changing their mind about the voiding of Steps 3-6 regardless of the letter as it would be very unusual should them to do so and ultimately they have made the only real decision they could. 


  8. On 3/26/2020 at 7:50 AM, Johnmccain said:

    Football league steps 3 and 4 to terminate the season it's looking like (the league's below National League North & South).

    All ante-post bets would have to be refunded then by my reckoning?

    Sorry only just seen this as not been in this part of the site for a while. Bet365 are yet to refund, but William Hill and BetVictor have.


  9. Given it has been confirmed there will be no more hunter chases in the UK this year and it is hard to see there being anymore in Ireland it is time to review this years service. What is amazing given how poor form I was in for the first 2 months of the season was that I managed to scrape a profit of 3pts. Now it does depend if you did the Tote forecast or the CSF at Catterick, but if you did the CSF you would be about a point up. Obviously it is the right thing to do regards the suspension of racing, but just purely looking at hunter chases it is frustrating that having started to find the winners that there won't be a chance to start building a healthy profit. Nailing that big forecast at Catterick was the key as was getting getting Clondaw Westie at Ffos Las and Full Irish at Fakenham. I only put bets up in 19 races staking 41.5pts and had returns in 7 of them returning 44.5pts. 

    If we do get anymore in Ireland then I will cover them, but otherwise it is going to be a very long wait until January when hopefully we will be back to some sort of normality.


  10. Thankfully Australian racing was able to continue after a scare earlier in the week and their looks to be a few betting opportunties on the main card at Rosehill plus the metro card in Victoria which this week is at Bendigo another country track after it was at Mornington last week.

    Rosehill race 5 4.10am

    Going to take two against the field. Villami was really good 1st up in a Listed contest and if she can buiuld on that performance than she has to be bang there off a light weight. She has form with Loving Gaby in the spring which obviously stacks up well. I mentioned Kementari last week when he was set to appear in The Galaxy. They took him out and have decided to aim him at this G3 instead. Could be a good move if he is anywhere near the form he showed before he went to stud and as I mentioned last week he trialled very well earlier in the month.

    Villami @ 3/1 with William Hill

    Kementari @ 5/1 with Bet365

    Rosehill race 6 4.50am

    The G1 Tancred Stakes features plenty of familiar names to UK and Irish punters and also those who were watching Rosehill last week as the front 3 in the betting all ran last week. Verry Elleegant is not surprisingly the favourite after her great run when being beaten by Addeybb, with Avilius back in 3rd. They are up to 2400m here, but I can't see the form being reversed. Hugh Bowman said he was happy with how Avilius performed, but he looked ordinary to me and he just doesn't seem the same horse as last year. Verry Elleegant won the ATC Oaks over this trip so that isn't a concern and she can win, but I am going to chance a couple at bigger odds.

    Mustajeer was last year's Ebor winner and he was pretty poor in the Melbourne Cup after that. He is now in Australia full time and his two runs back from a spell have been good efforts as he won 1st up over 1900m and then finished 2nd to a very progressive horse last time out. Up to 2400m will be more suitable and the Ebor was essentially a G1 handicap in all but name. I think he can run a good race here. In the same colours I also like Danceteria at a big price. He was trained by David Menuisier over here and ran a really good race when 4th behind Enable in the Eclipse. After that he won a G1 at Munich before a trip to the Cox Plate which didn't go well. That can be ignored though and I think he is slowly coming to hand this prep. He only beat one home 1st up, but last time he travelled well before fading in the straight in testing ground. It won't be as soft here and with blinkers on for the first time I can see him running well given his European form is very strong.

    Mustajeer @ 8/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfred (e/w)

    Danceteria @ 25/1 with BetVictor and Betfred (e/w)

    Rosehill Race 9 6.50am

    Star of the Stars won a G3 over 1100m 1st up and should enjoy the step up in trip. He has a superb record at Rosehill  where he has won 4 of his 5 starts and looks set to travel just behind the speed from his draw in 8. 

    Star of the Seas @ 100/30 with William Hill

    Bendigo Race 1 1.15am

    The slight concern is that Grand Promenade is having his 7th start this prep and that is fairly unusual in Australia, but his win at Caulfield over this trip after being trapped 3 wide with no cover for most of the race was really good. This looks a good race for him.

    Grand Promenade @ 7/5 with Paddy Power

    Bendigo Race 6 4.30am

    Going to have 2 bets against the field in this. Twitchy Frank has been so consistent since his last win just under a year ago at Caulfield. He has mainly run in his native Tasmania since and gone close in some decent races. He should go well again here. Mirette has a touch of class about her although she was very disappointing 1st up in the Echuca Cup. She has run well against Princess Jenni a couple of times last year and that is strong form. She has a good 2nd up record so hopefully she can improve here. 

    Twitchy Frank @ 6/1 with Betfred (e/w)

    Mirette @ 12/1 with Betfred (e/w)

    Bendigo Race 8 5.50am

    The big race of the day and I have to be with Princess Jenni. I tipped her up at Moonee Valley last week and on the face of it she was a bit ordinary, but she was not suited by the way the race was run and nothing was really finishing from the back on the card. This hopefully should be run to suit and she has a really good chance for me. I am also going to cover Debt Agent who set some great finishing sectionals 1st up at Flemington earlier in the month. He was a good horse in Singapore prior to coming over here and he looks capable of running a good race in this.

    Princess Jenni @ 100/30 with Betfred

    Debt Agent @ 15/2 with Betfred (e/w 4 places)


  11. 58 minutes ago, Trotter said:

    Yeah ..... I'll probably just take a break now

    I do find it difficult to get involved in Hong Kong, South Africa or the USA

    I suppose I just don't know enough about the tracks, the race conditions, the 'class' structure; the trainers ......... all the things that I have an instictive grasp of for the UK & Ireland ...... it's like starting again !

    Totally get this. I am married to an Australian so the first couple of trips we made I made sure I learnt about how it all worked over there just in case we ever moved at some stage. Glad I did though as really enjoyable the Australian racing and it is good class stuff but it’s something I did almost out of necessity and trying to do more on Hong Kong racing for example doesn’t massively appeal to me. Suspect that will be the only country with racing on very soon though.


  12. On The Sod looks a very promising horse based on that performance. Will be interesting where he goes next although the situation we are currently in will have a big say I would imagine. Looks a possible John Corbet cup winner though. Getzie ran a big race and looked like he would hit the frame at one stage. The other selection was a bit disappointing. Profit though which is the key. I think I’m right in saying the next hunter chase is the one at Fairyhouse over Easter should Ireland get that far and the meeting takes place.


  13. Regular readers of my previews will know that I don't tip in Irish hunter chases that often. The main reason for that is the fact I don't usually have the time to add Irish hunter chases to my usual workload of Non-League Football and UK hunter chases. With both those two out of action at the moment it means I can actually spend a bit of time on the Irish scene and they have a hunter chase at Downpatrick on Sunday.

    We have two horses at the top of the market Complete Sizing and On The Sod. I know the former has Jamie Codd on, but I don't really fancy him. It wasn't a strong open that he was 2nd in last time and the time before he fell in a hunter chase at Clonmel. That was in January and it was his first run since last May when he went off 8/13, but didn't seem to handle the good ground when he was well beaten by Rewritetherules. He also finished lame that day and his history shows that he clearly has had his issues over the years. He could come on for the run last time, but I think he needs to.

    On The Sod is 3/3 and has Rob James on top who will be on top of the world after winning at Cheltenham last week. Had one run last season and then returned to beat Samurai Cracker by a short head in November. That is strong form as he has won a hunter chase since and run well in some good races including when falling at the last in the Naas race Billaway won in January. Last month he was an easy winner and he clocked a decent time. The odd comment after the race from his trainer suggested that he would only go for a hunter chase if it was at a left-handed venue. I find it odd because it was a right-handed track last time so I don't see it being an issue and he looks a very promising horse.

    Heydour was rated 123 over Rules when trained in the UK and was 2nd a couple of times at Ludlow and Huntingdon. He won a maiden point last month, but that form wouldn't be good enough to win this. That was on heavy though and his good form in the UK was on decent ground. The trainer is using the horse to help give his 18yo son experience and he now can only run in hunter chases. On his UK form he'd have a chance, but that would suggest he wants good ground and that he got away with heavy ground last time as it was a much lower class.

    Handy Headon has been supported and I can understand why. He was impressive when winning his maiden in January where his trainer said the next target was he hunt race at Punchestown point to point which he pushed Rewritetherules close in. Now Rewritetherules apparently wasn't at his best that day and he wasn't great at Cheltenham last week, but I still think it was a good run from Handy Headon. If Punchestown does happen then he will be aimed at the Bishopscourt Cup a race he fell in last year.

    Holycross Lito showed some good form in points in 2017 winning 4 times. She then went under Rules but it never really worked out for her so she went back pointing and produced a superb performance to beat top pointer Longhouse Music (who also runs here) in October. She was disappointing on his next start which was in a Clonmel hunter chase in January, but given she has been off since my guess is she had an issue that day. She has to have a good chance if at her best.

    Next in the betting is Longhouse Music and she has won 20 times in 36 starts in points. After the defeat to Holycross Lito she won a couple of weeks later, before being well beaten by Mighty Stowaway when only 4th. She had a break after that and returned a couple of weeks ago when winning easily at 1/2 although the horse just in front did fall at the last. The problem is her Rules form is pretty poor including in a couple of hunter chases in 2017 and 2018. With pointing being closed in Ireland she has been forced to run in a hunter chase and on her Rules form I have to rule her out.

    Well Bill was a winner a couple of weeks ago where he reversed form with Like A Demon who had beaten him the time before. This race was named as his next race after that win, but he has hardly been a prolific winner in points and needs to find something for me.

    The other one worth mentioning is Getzie who has more letters than numbers in his form, but he is clearly coming into form. 2 starts back he was very unlucky to slip on landing at 2 out and he had to be pulled up. He then duly bolted up by 12L to lose his maiden tag at the beginning of the month. Interestingly a hunter chase was mentioned as a possible aim after that win so connections clearly think he is up to running well. If he can continue on the progression then he can outrun his massive odds.

    On The Sod has to be the main bet for me. He looks a like he could be pretty could and he might well turn out to be hard to beat. I'm not sure about Complete Sizing and Heydour probably wants better ground. Handy Headon has been backed and can't be ruled out although Punchestown (if it is on) is clearly the main aim. Longhouse Music's rules form puts me off, but Holycross Lito who has beaten her twice anyway looks a good e/w bet at the prices as she is better than she showed last time and it could be worth forgiving her that effort. Finally I am having a small e/w bet at Getzie at 66/1 as he is clearly coming to himself and looks over priced at huge odds.

    On The Sod 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365

    Holycross Lito 0.75pts e/w @ 9/1 with everyone

    Getzie 0.25pts e/w @ 66/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred


  14. 1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:

    Yes it could go at anytime, but the good thing is that the Irish Government have asked Horse Racing Ireland to keep it going for as long as possible.

    There is a strict list of protocol that seems to be working. One negative is that the government are not happy with Social Distancing at the moment, mainly with teenagers which could go against everybody.  Everything in Ireland is being looked at again on the 30th March, so fingers crossed.

    Yep and hopefully they will be able to keep going although given how quickly we went from Gold Cup day to having no racing at all here it clearly is a fast moving situation.


  15. Lots of good racing taking place in Australia on Saturday morning as they have one of the biggest days of the season at Rosehill. The Golden Slipper for 2yo is one of the biggest races on the calendar and that is one of 5 G1 on the card. I wont have anything in that race, but some of the other races interest me and there are a few ex UK runners and 2 William Haggas trained runners on the card.

    The first of the Haggas runners is Young Rascal who goes in the G3 at 2.10am. He has top weight, but I think he deserves it on his achievements over here. He was impressive when winning a Listed race at Kempton in November and the 2nd has gone on to win a G2 at Meydan since. Before coming to Australia he went to Hong Kong to run in the Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin and he ran as well as could have been expected. He is being trained with the Sydney Cup in mind in 3 weeks, but this doesn't look an overly strong contest and he should be up to going pretty close.

    The favourite is Mugatoo who used to be trained by Dave Simcock. The best he managed over here was a win at Doncaster last May off 81, but he has been very progressive since going to Australia winning 3/3. He has been impressive in all 3 starts which have come over 1600m, 1800m and then 2000m last time when winning the Canberra Cup beating some of today's rivals. Given his win at Doncaster was over 1m6f (3000m) that takes some doing and clearly stepping up in trip is going to suit.

    Strictly speaking on UK ratings Young Rascal is very well handicapped compared to Mugatoo, but we already know Mugatoo has got acclimatised to Australian racing and is improving fast. That tips the balance in his favour for me although I will have a small cover bet on Young Rascal as well. 

    Mugatoo Evs @ Betfred

    Young Rascal 4/1 @ William Hill and Betfred

    The Ranvet Stakes is a G1 over 1m2f and is due off at 3.25am. Avilius was a very impressive winner of this last year and he was in flying form this time last year. The problem is he hasn't really been in the same sort of form this time around. What I will say though is his best form has seemed to come in Sydney and he is 3/3 at Rosehill. This prep he was a running on 5th over 1400m at Caulfield and then he did the same up to 1600m at Randwick. Last time he was a bit ordinary in the Australian Cup at Flemington though. He could easily bounce back here though and has a big chance. Verry Elleegant has a chance and was in front of Avilius at Randwick last time. I just wonder if he isn't quite as good over 2000m though.

    William Haggas' other runner is Addeybb and he is favourite for this which isn't a massive surprise given his form. He landed the Wolferton at Royal Ascot beating Magic Wand which is obviously good from. He also won the Rose Of Lancaster at Haydock in August, before a new PB when 2nd to Magical in the Champion Stakes in October. I was listening to William Haggas on Sky Sports Racing this morning and he was thinking the ground wouldn't be soft enough although it should still be a Soft 5 at least. Yes he does enjoy desperate ground, but he shouldn't have an issue under these conditions. He wasn't great on his seasonal return last year, but the year before he bolted up in the Lincoln first up so that shouldn't be a concern.

    Avilius is a good rival, but Addeybb is the best horse in the race for me and hopefully he can make a winning debut in Australia.

    Addeybb 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred

    As mentioned in my Moonee Valley preview I was in Australia at this time last year and although not actually at Rosehill it was great to actually watch Winx win her 4th George Ryder Stakes (4.05)live in the afternoon and enjoy all the build up instead of just watching the race when I got up. No Winx here obviously, but we do have star New Zealand horse Te Akau Shark who managed to finish 3rd in last year's Cox Plate. This prep he is 2/2 both in G1 company in New Zealand and at Randwick last time when beating Verry Elleegant and Avilius. His closing sectionals were impressive and he is the one they have to beat. 

    Super Seth is a horse I have had in my black book (it is what Australian's call their tracker) since I saw him win at Ballarat on his debut a year ago as he was really impressive and it was clear he was going to turn into a good horse. He has now won 5 of his 9 starts which includes the Caulfield Guineas in October. This prep he has won a G3 at Caulfield 1st up and then finished a close 2nd in the G2 Futurity Stakes at the same track. He did well in a trial last week to get him primed for this and I think he looks the big danger to the favourite and I will save on him, but Te Akau Shark looks a level above him at the moment.

    Te Akau Shark 11/10 with Bet365, William Hill and Betway

    Super Seth 4/1 with William Hill and Betfred

    Race 6 at 4.45 is the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and Shadow Hero is the favourite having won the Randwick Guineas last time over 1600m. He was very strong late on running the final 200m in 11.67 which was the 2nd quickest of the day. We know he stays this far as he is already a G1 winner over this trip. I am going to take him on with Chenier though for Godolphin. He doesn't have the best of draws, but he does have McEvoy on top and you couldn't ask for a better man in the saddle in that circumstance. He is another one in went into my black book after winning his debut. That came at Sandown and he was really impressive. He bombed out on his 2nd start, but has returned in good form in two starts on his 2nd prep. Both were behind Alligator Blood at Flemington and he was strong late both times when 3rd in a G3 and then 4th in the Australian Guineas. In the latter he clipped heels as well and it was a huge effort. He looks like 2000m is exactly what he needs and he looked good in a trial last week. He looks set to run a big race here in my view.

    Chenier 11/2 @ William Hill, Betfred and Betway

    Race 8 at 6.10 is the Galaxy which is a handicap sprint. I backed Pierata in this last year and he just failed to catch the top class Nature Strip that day. I think he can go one better here despite top weight. He hasn't won this prep, but he has won twice 1st up and he has had two trials including winning one earlier in the month. He is one of the top sprinters in Australia and is worth backing to land this. It will be interesting to see Kementari back after he proved a flop at stud. He has trialled well and when last seen he was running huge races in all the big sprints without winning one. If in that sort of form I doubt he will be far away.

    Pierata 4/1 @ William Hill, Betfred and Betway

    Mornington Cup (5.10am)

    Usually in Victoria on a Saturday one of the 3 tracks in Melbourne hosts the main meeting, but this Saturday is one of the rare times when it doesn't and instead we head to the coast and Mornington for their Cup (yes basically every track in Australia has their own Cup). This race is full of ex UK/Irish horses and the key piece of form for me is a race which featured a few of those at Caulfield last month. It was the first race on the card and at the time it wasn't fully known if what looked a track bias was certain to be the case, however there was. Basically anything which had to come from behind and wide had no chance. Aktau (ex Roger Varian who won at Glorious Goodwood on his last start here) won that contest but certainly had the perfect run and although he has a chance for sure he might not get things go as well here. 2nd home was Inverloch (ex French) and he led so certainly had the run of the race although he did go on to win the Victoria Cup over the same course and distance a week so is clearly in good form.

    The two I like though were 3rd and 4th. My main bet is Future Score who was trained by Mick Appleby and owned by the very shrewd Horse Watchers. He has done really well since his Australian debut for Matt Cumani a year ago and he has won 4 times already as he has gone up through the grades. I've long thought he would be ideal for one of the country Cups and I would imagine that Matt has aimed him at this one for a while. He ran a really solid race to finish 3rd at Caulfield and now he is stepped back up in trip that should be perfect as his best win so far in Australia was at Flemington over 2600m. I think he's a really solid e/w play here. The former William Haggas trained Just Benjamin has had just the 3 starts in Australia and won the 2nd of them at Caulfield over 1800m when Aktau was behind in 3rd. He was wide with no cover last time and to finish 4th was some effort in the circumstances. His last win in the UK was at Musselburgh on Derby Day and that was over 2500m so he has been steadily building up to running over this trip by his trainer as is the norm in Australia. He looks progressive and is also worth having onside.

    Future Score 8/1 with Betfred

    Just Benjamin 3/1 with Bet365 and Betfred

    (Sky don't have the rights to Mornington so the only way of watching it live or a replay will be via the superb Racing.com and it is free to sign up so no reason not to)

     


  16. 35 minutes ago, Noodle bowl said:

    Had a saver account on loving Gaby some money back 

    Looking forward to your tips for tomorrow I have faith I you pal it's time for a winning streak from you

    Keep the posting them pal I am taking note

    Good stuff and she did it well. Think in the end the fav used too much up getting to the lead, but might not have made any difference anyway. Princess Jenni just ran very flat sadly and there was nothing there when asked for an effort.