PAULM03
-
Posts
11,382 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by PAULM03
-
-
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
:lol :lol You don't mate, he still won't get it. There's loads of experiments you can do to prove a correct price exists. Do what Joe Buchdahl did. Plot £ returned per unit stake wagered against odds. You see it increases and approaches 1 at odds of about 1,25 (i.e. if you bet on all games at about 1.25 you will get £1 for every £1 staked). This indicates that at these prices the bookies are offering fair (i.e. correct odds). At high odds (about 3.5 and above) the £ returned per unit stake is about 0.67 (i.e. 67p returned for each £1 bet) indicating that the bookies are fleecing you. and the correct odds for these games is higher than those being offered.Now, where do I collect the prize? -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
I know you did not ask me but I hope you don't mind: There is my price' date=' his price, your price, bookies' price, etc... No correct or incorrect price. What is so difficult to understand about that?[/quote'] Grrrrr..... This has to be a windup. Apologies for my rudeness but surely no one can be this daft? You are all guessing at the correct price.:wall :wall A longterm betting profit comes from being able to estimate a correct price better than a bookie on a series of events. -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
I really don't see how much more clearly I can spell this out. Einstein said the definition of stupid is doing things over and over and expecting a different result, I guess that makes me pretty stupid as I've asked this question at least 5 times and there's no reason why anyone should answer now. Anyway, here goes: Why does not knowing (or indeed being unable to calculate) the correct price imply that it does not exist? Please, please answer me because so far every argument against the existence of a correct price has simply being an argument against being able to calculate it. YES!! you can alter a system to change it's behaviour YES!! You can load a coin die or roullette wheel YES!! The weather may affect the outcome of a football game YES!! Someone may have knowledge about an event that you don't All this does is potentially move where the correct price lies, IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE IS NO CORRECT PRICE!!!!! :wall :wall :wall :wall :wallPaulM03 - why a correct price does not exist The problem with the argument that a correct price exists is that it only exists in theory. The idea of a correct price is a theoretical concept. The concept is used to try to determine value whether for the odds of a soccer match or the price of a loaf of bread. Even this discussion re coin flips and roulette wheels is theoretical. In real life any one particular coin may have a fault or blemish that can alter the expected .50-.50 probability. If you are going to gamble on coin flips you must be aware of that possibility. You must also realize that your opponent may have knowledge about that coin that you don't have. This is why in the real world there is no such thing as a correct price. There is always information about the outcome of the event that either you do not have privilege to or is impossible to know. -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
Just to let you know I'm not ignoring this thread because I can't answer your question but because you're not making any sense. Please, please go and read Buchdahl's book. It's a good read if you like your betting and it explains all the concepts on here (and more) far more eloquently than I could.Why do bookies react and lower odds if large amount of money is placed to one outcome??? Why would they do it if there is a thing such as "true odds"? -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
That doesn't make any sense. Yes, you can never know whether you judged the odds on any individual event correctly (unlike with a coin toss). You can however make a number of bets (say 200), and look at the average odds and your yield to determine whether you are making the right calls or not. Imagine you've never seen a coin before and din't know the probabilities A Priori. If you were taking the bets at 1.9 you could look back after about 100 bets and see if you were getting value. That's what people do. Look at Cavelloman, 4 months out of 5 in profit: Finding value or a good guesser? There is a right answer.Coin toss/die toss/roullete examples are very, very good for theory but only for theory and no argument about that. I absolutelly agree with your example but like you said "why people can't see" that it is not applicable to soccer, basketball, tennis, etc simply because conditions and probabilities for every coin toss/roullete spin are always the same and for a soccer game (or any event involving humans) they are never the same nor they will ever be repeated.
Well in that case you should analyse your risk better. I agree there's no point having a system that only yields one bet a year, the variance would mean that there is a significant chance you might never make a profit. Really this is going over old ground. Buy Joe Buchdahl's book and give it a read.And to your last point: you can bet on every "value bet" throughout all your life and still not have a profit (low strike rate) and it is as simple as that. My question is: how you prove that betting on value in a long run brings profit??? (exclude coin/roullete examples please). -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
Fair enough. There is no disagreement that people may disagree over what is and what is not value. However they may be wrong or right. Why can't people see this? Last go at this, I haven't got the time or inclination to try to explain gambling 101. Imagine a coin flip: I offer you odds of 1.9 on heads: Do you take it? I offer you odds of 2.1 on heads: Do you take it? Now, everyone will agree (hopefully) that odds of 1.9 are not value, everyone will agree that odds of 2.1 are value and everyone will agree that THE CORRECT ODDS ARE VERY VERY CLOSE TO 2.0. Now this is no different to any event upon which you care to gamble. The only difference being that you do not know for certain what is value, and everyone's opinion may differ (if it didn't we wouldn't be here). BUT!!! The fact that you don't know for sure what the correct odds should be does not mean that the corect odds do not exist.100% agree with this. If someone says there is 40% chances that team A will win and therefore odds of 2.00 are not value what does it mean? It means that person beleives odds of 2.00 are not value. Another person might say there is 60% chances for a win and therefore odds of 2.00 are value for that person.
Very, very last word on this subject. You could pick 90 out of a hundred selections. If you didn't get the value you haven't made a profit. Simple. As. That.Anyway, I want only to mention something from another thread "sport betting is for winners". Some people there posted that anyone living from betting is placing only value bets (which in theory should bring profit in the long run)and has a good staking plan. What I disagree with is following: 1. How anyone who lives from betting can have a bank at all? My definition of living from betting is that betting is the only source of income for that person. Therefore, from what money that person will be paying his rent, food, clothes, daily expenses, not to mention some emergency situations? I do not see how anyone can define a "bank" since its amount is changed every time you buy a pack of ciggaretes or a beer? 2. What is considered a long run (again for persons who live from betting) that should bring a profit? What happens if in one month you had a bad run? Do you stop paying your expenses, buying food, etc... Or if you made let's say 20% increase in your so-called "bank" but expenses in that month were 30% of your "bank". I have been in such situation (luckily for only a couple of months) between two jobs and I can tell you that you can forget all the theories and that "long run" that in theory should bring you profit lasts a week or two. When faced with something like that (very unpleasent and stresfull) you can only hope you will pick a winner. I know many of you do not agree with picking winners but like Paul Ross said value is 100% subjective definition of something and therefore I do not see any difference between that and picking winners. -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
Nobody will win this argument' date=' because nobody can win it, value is opinionated and that's that.[/quote'] Just because you say 'that's that' doesn't make it so.:eyes You've given absolutely no coherent rational argument to back up your point of view. Explain to me why not being able to absolutely know the correct price implies that one doesn't exist. Maybe I should have taken Cavelloman's advice 3 pages ago and stopped trying to discuss the bleeding obvious.:\ -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
No it doesn't. There is no individual definition of value. Something is either value or it is not. You only know if you are finding value by if you are making a consistent profit (this is the only way to put it to use). The individual part comes from how you FIND the value. Have you read Joe Buchdahl's book? You really should give it a read: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fixed-Odds-Sports-Betting-Statistical/dp/1843440199/ref=sr_1_1/202-9684589-8284614?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1179778457&sr=8-1.... yep, good discussion and several different viewpoints, all boils down in the long run to how each and every individual defines value and how they would best put it to good use.;) -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
I meant value by studying the form' date=' which he admits he doesn't do.[/quote'] But value is value is value. Everyone's after the same value, it's just the methods that are different. -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? Just having a read back through this thread in an idle 10 minutes and this little gem stuck out:
I think Slapdash would disagree entirely with you there. Yes he might not know anything about the horse, but he does have a good idea of whether it is value or not. Value is value is value, the method of working it out may differ but if you're not finding it then you;re not making a profit. This is gambling 101 surely? To use each way thieving as an example: There is a horse that is longer odds to place than it should be due to the presence of a strong favourite. That horse is then potentially value. The price it is, is longer than the price it should be. This too implies the existence of 'correct' odds. Fair enough: between you, all the other punters and the bookies you might never work them out perfectly but that doesn't mean they don 't exist.He studies numbers and how they move and he has been Sports-Punter.com Champion Tipster 2005 and 2006. He knows fcuk all about the horse he's backing, whether it's value or not, or whether it's on crutches. -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? It would be interesting to see Joe Buchdahl's view on whether there is such a thing as a 'correct' price or not. It's one of the basic premises of the 'hot favourite' system, as the average odds (i.e. across bookies) on an event decreases the amount returned per unit stake approaches 1. This implies that as the average odds decrease, the bookie is offering closer to 'true' odds.
I don't understand why simply not knowing the correct odds implies that correct odds don't exist.PAULM03, Let's turn your question to Paul Ross around abit. You wake up tomorrow morning, fire up your computer and check prices and see that every major bookmaker and Betfair is offering Chelsea @ 10-1 to win next year. Is that price correct or incorrect? Obviously there is something you don't know. To me it is reasonable that Paul Ross would think the same thing. What does PaulM03 know that I don't know? The price is not correct or incorrect but highlights a difference in opinion. Paul R can only assume that for some reason you find value in offering 10-1. -
Re: With which hands should you shove?
How about KQo' date=' KJs, KJo or other hands with two high cards?[/quote'] I realised I'd forgot about them after I posted it. probably lump them in the 50% category, suited or not. K-J, K-10, Q-10 etc. etc. It would depend on how tight the table was. -
Re: With which hands should you shove?
A. Would definitely call. Pocket Pair 7s and up AK, AQ, AJ B. Would probably call (about 75% calls). A10, A9 C. Maybe, maybe not (about 50% calls). A7-A8, pocket 5s and 6s, suited connectors 10-J and upwards D. Probably wouldn't call (about 25% calls). pocket 2s, 3s, 4s, suited connectors E. Definitely wouldn't call. owt else. My reasoning being that at this stage it's primarily a game of getting high cards or decent PP and putting your money on the table. No chance for really playing a hand, representing something you don't have, making continuation bets or drawing.Fair enough. Shoving would have been even more of a no-brainer than calling. I'm more interested in which weaker hands should shove. -
Re: With which hands should you shove?
I pretty much knew I was on a coinflip, and at that stage IMO the call was a no-brainer. I'd have shoved too If I'd been first to act.***** Hand 622572166 ***** 50.00/100.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - Sunday, May 20, 2007 8:43:09 PM STT $10 NL (Real/Tournament) Seat 1: jolyka1 (1725.00) Seat 2: wizard70 (2500.00) Seat 3: mamelix2 (1905.00) Seat 5: sral911 (995.00) Seat 6: slapdash1 (2435.00) Seat 8: Michel30 (3430.00) Seat 9: mvlj (1065.00) Seat 10: mcguirpa (945.00) mamelix2 post SB 50.00 sral911 post BB 100.00 ** Deal ** jolyka1 [N/A, N/A] wizard70 [N/A, N/A] mamelix2 [N/A, N/A] sral911 [N/A, N/A] slapdash1 [N/A, N/A] Michel30 [N/A, N/A] mvlj [N/A, N/A] mcguirpa [Ac, Qc] *** Bet Round 1 *** slapdash1 Fold Michel30 Call 100.00 mvlj All-in 1065.00 mcguirpa All-in 945.00 jolyka1 Fold wizard70 Fold mamelix2 Fold sral911 Fold Michel30 Fold *** Flop(Board): *** : [8h, 10h, 5d] *** Turn(Board): *** : [8h, 10h, 5d, 7d] *** River(Board): *** : [8h, 10h, 5d, 7d, 10c] *** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.00 Total Pot: 2140.00 jolyka1 Fold Win: 0.00 wizard70 Fold Win: 0.00 mamelix2 Fold Win: 0.00 sral911 Fold Win: 0.00 slapdash1 Fold Win: 0.00 Michel30 Fold Win: 0.00 mvlj [Js, Jh] Two pair jacks and tens Win: 2140.00 mcguirpa [Ac, Qc] Pair of tens Win: 0.00 -
Re: With which hands should you shove? Is this about me? Or am I being vain?:lol
-
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
You haven't answered the question.If you were a bookmaker, then no doubt it would be an error and be rectified. If it was you personally, you may offer me 10.00 after 12 pints of stella, that wouldn't make it incorrect, it would just mean you were extremely pissed and I took advantage. :ok -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
So were I to offer you odds of say 10.00 on Chelsea winning the league next year you think it's only a matter of opinion of whether that would be incorrect?The only way it can be incorrect is if it is a genuine error, ie meant to be 4.00 and it says 40.00. Other than that, it is again, only an opinion whether it is incorrect. -
Re: Louis Vutton / america Cup Nice write up.:ok I always wonder why Abramovich hasn't got involved in this.
-
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
As for "correct prices"' date=' there isn't such a thing. It's one man's opinion (an odds compiler) against another man's opinion (punter).[/quote'] Would you say that there is such a thing as an incorrect price? -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
:rollin:rollin:rollin No need to beat around the bush here, say what you really think.I think I'm reasonalbe at pricing up matches. And it is uncanny how many of my odds assessment are close to the odds available. I just use a spreadsheet and some simple statistical techniques. Like I have said before because people can't find value and win at football or racing they look to ridicule the concept. The fault lies with them, They are either lazy(I usually spend 3 hours studying race form before deciding on my bets) or lack knowledge. If value does not exist how is it that I have made a profit 4 out of the 5 months this year. I must be good at guessing:lol This weekend I put up a selections @11/8 which started at 4/5 and a 11/4 shot which started @6/4. Just get real and start doing some work and stop wasting time on discussing the bleeding obvious. Famous vlalue men. Phil Bull, McManus, Alec Bird, John Cough, Slapdash etc etc. -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
I think the definition of value is pretty much constant. Just the way of working it out that differs. Poker is a prime example. Some people do everything short of taking a calculator and sliderule to the table, others maybe rely simply on experience and instinct, but the fact is if they're both winning players then they're both making the value calls. To get back on topic a little, I agree with the basic premise. In fact I thought that this was how the bookies actually priced games up. Fair enough they might have full-time teams of odds compilers, but if they were taking into account massive numbers of variables then IMO you'd see a massive variety of odds, and generally you don't..... I agree with you Paul, it's exactly down to how one defines 'value'. -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? Really interesting read this, keep it up:ok
Maybe you have a slight misunderstanding of value Merlin. The method of finding 'value' is not important, but by definition if you are a punter in consistent profit then you are finding value. For instance someone backing the horses who picks his selections purely on instinct and what he reads in the racing post could be just as succesful as someone who takes a completely different approach (like slapdash for instance). Both are finding value (they wouldn't be in profit were thay not) just in completely different ways.... just as a matter of interest by way of keeping things simple, I had 7 correct homes from 8 selections on my Aussie ratings today Martin, proofed on the Non European thread and using no values whatsoever. Early days but encouraging.;) -
Re: Lester Piggot admitted to intensive care
Darn. Beat me to it. I was going to say it must be his worst day since he admitted to tax fraud. Must be getting on a bit now. Get well soon anyways lester.:hope:hope:hope and :hope its purely for tax purposes. -
Re: PL Poker Night - Birmingham - Sat May 26th
You haven't put me down as a maybe. Might be bringing a mate too.Any more?:nana
new idea on prices. why do we bother?
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
So if a correct price only exists in theory how do you make a profit in practice?