PAULM03
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Posts posted by PAULM03
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Re: Punters Lounge Poker Site?
Well I don't play cash, so I was thinking for STTs i.e. instead of someone offering games at $20+2, why not $20+1?You mean like WFX/WPX or whatever they're called? (I cant even remember their name!!!) who give 100% rakeback? They still have no traffic!! The networks cap the amount of rakeback that their skins can offer - they dont want a "rake war"..... -
Re: Punters Lounge Poker Site?
Problem is there's no loyalty (as a few rooms have found to their cost). Sure if you throw money at the punters they'll come and play but as soon as you stop giving your money away and switch to a more sustainable strategy they'd all just bugger off. I have often wondered why someone doesn't come in and undercut everyone on the rake though.Very true I'm sure but does anyone remember the good old days where bonuses were achievable to the average/small time rounder and there was good value for money to be had......i'm sure that there exists in the market a space for a more generous Site and I'm of the belief that you could still attract a large number of punters if the site was right. Maybe I'm dead wrong though. -
Re: Does anybody know how to do the 10-card poker con? Well it looks like that as I'm the only mod who voted I have a majority of 1. I hope it's good after the amount of hype it's got:lol :lol
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Re: Hatton V Castillo (23/6/7)
Odd that, I don't recall seeing hatton priced up at 6/1 for the knockout:unsure Don't know where all the money on the result came from either, I had a good (or so I thought) look around the net and couldn't find anyone else tipping up the Hatton knockout.1545: Hills have revealed they took a six-figure hit earlier today when Ricky Hatton KO'd Jose Luis Castillo in Las Vegas. The firm's spokesman Graham Sharpe said: "Ricky was backed from 6/1 to 5/2 to win by knockout, from 1/2 to 3/10 to win the fight outright and at 40/1 to win in round four. "The result was a six-figure loser for William Hill alone and the industry is facing up to its worst loss on a boxing match since Frank Bruno won the world title." -
Re: Does anybody know how to do the 10-card poker con? well I haven't been to church this morning, I slept in after the Hatton fight. But just go ahead and post it. Really.
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Re: Hatton V Castillo (23/6/7)
Hatton's definitely got opponent problems. The only way he's going to get a superfight is by moving up, or persuading someone (Manny Pac?) to move up themselves. Going to be difficult. There is an onvious candidate for me though: Junior Witter. A nice domestic fight that would be a big draw. Witter's got a half-decent record, and an OK recent one. I honestly think Hatton would be in massive trouble against either FMJ or ODH if the fight happened at Welter.Hmmm. Ricky's next fight might be a homecoming in Manchester around October time possibly against Paul Malignaggi or Herman Ngoudjo? BoxRec's Light Welterweight Ratings: http://www.boxrec.com/ratings.php?division=Light%20Welterweight Watching Barry McGuigan, Colin Hart and Farnk Maloney spout away as to who Ricky's next big name opponent may be, I think for whatever reason Ricky will be thwarted and that it be a year and a half/three fights away before he gets to fight the likes of Shane Mosley or Miguel Cotto. Names such as Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather obviously attract the eye moe than Mosley or Cotto do but surely for now, it's just hype on the back of an impressive display (two weight divisions! Ricky has to go up two weight divisions ~ surely that's not going to happen ~ or they both make a compromise and Oscar/Floyd goes down a division and Ricky goes up one). -
Re: Hatton V Castillo (23/6/7)
He wasn't up for it. He's just no good once he moves up in weight, his record proves it. Although I agree, he looked like he could have got up.I'm a little surprised by how quickly that ended. I thought Castillo might have gotten up from that body shot. -
Re: Hatton V Castillo (23/6/7) get the fcuk in.:nana Commentators saying he looked shot. I'm saying he was always over-rated.
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Re: Hatton V Castillo (23/6/7) class line from the commentator: 'Blue moon, the song of the second of manchesters two pro soccer franchises':lol:lol:lol
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Re: Hatton V Castillo (23/6/7) well the streams come through, a bit patchy but good enough:nana Just sitting through 20 minutes of ads, hope the stream doesn't cut out when the action starts:hope
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Re: Hatton V Castillo (23/6/7)
:hope:hope If all else fails i'll stream it off fivelive (it is on fivelive ain't it:unsure) I've been told the stream will be fully up and running at 3, I just hope it's not bull.You're not missing anything mate. Still an hour and a half for it to get working :ok -
Re: Hatton V Castillo (23/6/7) all I know is my stream aint working yet:sad
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Re: Does anybody know how to do the 10-card poker con?
Just post it, you won't be banned:okAlright. It's a trick. Who wants it by PM now? I don't know much about the card trick but 58 posts in his first 3 days is a good feckin effort!! :loon TQM - were you on BF as SD? Just a thought :unsure -
Re: 50% Strike Rate
Try tossing a coin.Hello Everyone I need something that will give me a 50% srtike rate at evens or just under without too many losing runs Can anyone help me :hope -
Re: Hatton V Castillo (23/6/7)
4am BST.I reckon Hatton on points, Castillo will play this cagey looking for a late blow ( IMO ) but Hatton has that bit more in the tank. anyone know what the projected time of this fight will be GMT ?
Cheers:okSome cool prices there. Good luck mate. -
Now this should be a right old dust up. Both come forward fighters with big workrates and big hearts who aren't so much into the sweet science as a good old battering. Although that's probably doing a bit of disservice to Hatton as he does show some good footwork and a nice array of punches. Anyway, who's going to win? Well for me there's only one result: Hatton by late knockout. After the fights against Corrales Castillo has taken on quite a big reputation over here, however his record doesn't really stand up to scrutiny IMO. On the surface he's 55-7-1 (47 KOs), very respectable. But if you scratch a bit deeper it's not so clear cut. Most (about the first 30) of his early fights were against fighters of very dubious quality, in fact the only 3 really decent opponents he faced he lost by stoppage. He's also done most of his fighting at feather and lightweight and he's never faced a fighter of Hatton's quality at Light welter, in fact no where near Hatton's quality. His last two fights were at this weight, his last a VERY close split decision against Herman Ngoudjo, himelf a 15 fight novice. The only question mark is Castillo's power, he's undoubtedly capable of delivering a knockout blow, but then Hatton's chin is hardly suspect. I was tempted to back them both to win by knockout but I think I'll risk it and just take Hatton instead. Hatton to win by KO, TKO or DQ: [email protected] (betfair) Hatton round 10: 0.5pts@32 (betfair) Hatton round 11: 0.5pts@34 (betfair) Hatton round 12: 0.5pts@36 (betfair)
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Re: PL Poker Night - Birmingham - Sat May 26th
:rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin errrrrm... where to start. Great night really, not much else to say. Wish I'd have stayed in the taxi and gone all the way home. Idiot.:eyesP.S. Donna... don't be ashamed of your sexuality, I know it must have been a hard decision to "come out" at this PL night. I am sure you have set a great example of honesty and braveness... and maybe more PL'ers will have the balls to come out aswell, thanks to you... you're a queen -
Re: 10p to over £1million pounds Don't want to rain on your parade but you might have a slight liquidity issue here by nthe time you get to the larger bets.
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Re: Paradise poker switch I've just logged in for a game and it went swimmingly. It seems exactly the same but a bit more errrmm.... powder puff.
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Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 15
This is THE game for us, in fact maybe that's overstating it a little. We've got a run of 6 reasonably winnable games and we need to make the most of it. This last 6 weeks has been a bit of a nightmare for us, we've had a run of very tough fixtures co-inciding with a few crucial injuries and Rooney's loss of early season form. The only two real tonkings we've had are Shudds away (no surprise there) and Wigan Away, we went very close to a win at Quins and at home to Hull, and put up a reasonable show in 2 games at home to Bradford. I'm reasonably confident we'll beat catalans although not confident enough to put money on it. (sorry about bold, can't turn it off for some reason)Wakefield are due a win soon surely....? -
Thought this might be of interest to some, copy and paste job from the subscription section of new scientist.
You won the World Series of Poker behind dark glasses, using mathematics not mind games. Are the other players freaked by your robotic take on the game? I don't engage in mind games because it is not part of my personality. The sunglasses and Stetson were originally meant as just an image thing - it's a false image, by the way. No one's freaked by all this. They have their strengths and I have mine. We're all learning from each other. I certainly watch players: there's a lot to be gained by watching the way they play. Do good poker players need a mathematical brain? You need to be able to reason logically: that's what all professional poker players have in common. These guys are really smart too: I've always said that anyone who can make money playing poker can make a lot more doing something else. So the stereotype of them being hard-living, risk-taking mavericks is wrong? A lot of poker players are gamblers at heart, though it is not the case for me. But the image of the game has changed. Five years ago, if you said you were a professional poker player, people would look down on you as a degenerate who was wasting his life away, and probably his money too. Now people see poker for what it is: a game of skill. John von Neumann was one of the first to research the mathematics of poker in the 1920s. If you played him, who would win? He'd have no chance! I'm not saying I'm smarter than von Neumann: I don't think he played that much. We all stand on the shoulders of those who went before us. After all, who knows more about astronomy - me or Copernicus? OK, bad example: he probably knew more about astronomy than me! Why did it take so long for a game theorist to win the World Series? I think it is because there hasn't been much of a link between academic game theorists and serious poker players. You can know all the game theory in the world, but you need to be a good player too in order to put theories into practice. I couldn't just teach a guy to play poker in a couple of days and expect him go into a casino and play well. You have to put in the hours. It took you 13 years to get your doctorate. Does that have anything to do with too much time playing poker? Yes, it does. But I wouldn't characterise it as playing too much poker: I was playing the right amount of poker. Some might find it surprising that you can reduce poker strategy to a set of rules - it seems such a psychological game. Does game theory bypass the human element of poker? Game theory can be applied successfully to all elements of poker. It is true that if you know how your opponent plays it is easy to know how best to play against him, but game theory tends not to worry about that. In game theory there is something known as optimal strategy. That means, essentially, assuming your opponent is playing very well and will take advantage of every mistake you make. What kinds of tactics does game theory teach you? Guidelines about how often you should bluff, for example. It turns out the best hands to bet are your best and worst hands, but you need to bet them in the right ratio, betting your bad hands one-third of the time. “Game theory teaches you how often you should bluff†Will computers ever play poker better than humans? I believe computers will be able to play the game very well. Poker is probably more similar to backgammon than chess in that way - the best backgammon players in the world are computers. But poker has a big human element. A perfect strategy in game theory is all very well, but there are loopholes. If I make a mistake a computer might not take advantage of it. Computers also assume you don't know what cards other players hold, but that's not necessarily the case. Can they learn the way people play and adjust their strategy? For a lot of people it is very hard to pull off a convincing bluff: that's the main human element that computers aren't going to be able to take advantage of. And it is going to be hard to teach a computer to read tells. Do you have a tell - a behavioural clue that tells other players something about your cards? Everybody has tells. Even if I knew what mine were I wouldn't tell you. Are tells important? This side of poker is a bit overrated. It is important, but my decisions are not based solely on tells: they don't inform you how to play your hand. Even reading the cards doesn't tell you that. You still have to feel things out. There isn't a book that tells you exactly how you should play. Most of the time I respond to the way my opponent plays. Do you sit there behind the sunglasses furiously calculating the right strategy? I don't do that much mental gymnastics during a game: much of that has been done at home. I have played millions of hands and worked out how I want to play. My strategy is more like a chess player who knows all the opening moves, who knows what they're going to do. Sometimes I'll do a little bit, but there isn't really that much computation going on when I'm at the table. You are a strategy-games addict. Can you remember a time when you didn't play them? No. My father used to bring home games that we would play all the time. Playing games at a young age teaches you critical reasoning - a logical way of thinking that's very important in poker and lots of other things. Now you write academic research papers with your father. Is that a successful combination? Yes, it works very well. I think that is due to our different skills: we can do a lot of research other people can't because they don't have the background in mathematics as well as poker. Mathematics tells you what questions you want to ask and gives the numbers that fit into the formula. I can test the formula and prove it is indeed the best way to play. You don't think it is fair to keep taking someone's money once you have figured out how to beat them. Are you the only poker player with an ethical policy? With that ethical policy, possibly! There will always be people who keep on putting their money on the table, but I don't want to be the one that takes it. I don't think it's fair and I don't enjoy it. It is different at poker tournaments, where everyone has already paid their money to the casino before the game starts. I'm glad there are people playing poker for big money in the tournaments. Because it helps you clean them out? Exactly. It makes my living. I don't have to do anything else to earn money. -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
I agree entirely until your last sentence. I think the evidence for this is in Betfair, which is to all intents and purposes a free market and appears to get very close to 'true odds'. If by 'fluctuate until the event concludes' you mean until betting on a particular event closes then yes the price fluctuates, but IMO it fluctuates slightly around the correct price.PaulM03 You have brought up a very good point. I think they call it random walk theory. If I place a good size number of bets, lets say 1000 or more on various matches at random, my result will be about breakeven less any vigorish or commission charged. What this impies is that if there is a correct price it is the current price that is available in a free market. What this also implies is that for any one event there is not a single correct price as the market price fluctuates until the event is concluded. -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
Well you can do that by taking a cross section of matches, backing them at unit stakes and seeing how much money you get back. If you get back £1 for every £1 staked your getting correct odds. QED.PaulM03 I think also that the onus should be on you that there is a real world correct price. It is very difficult for me to prove a negative. -
Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?
So what is the difference between value and true value?PaulM03 I'm not saying that you shouldn't try to calculate your own values. It is individual. People who win are better at calculating value than other participants. To win consistently you only need to calculate value better than others. You do not need to calculate true value or a correct price.
Do you back horses or prices?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Do you back horses or prices?
Didn't we have this argument last week? Your point of view was that it wasn't worth debating the bleeding obvious if I remember rightly:lol