black_baar

Yep .
Antonia Lottner to beat Mayo Hibi at 1.81 with Pinnacle
Just the better player imo. Hibi has more practice on hard courts, but the fact that she's playing exclusively on the ITF circuit isn't all that thrilling.
Filip Krajinovic to beat Lukas Rosol at 1.56 with Pinnacle
Unfortunately, Rosol has turned into some sort of a joke after missing those match points against Gilles Muller at Wimbledon. Krajinovic has already beaten him twice in this season and this should be a repeat of that.

Hello Guys, 
for today matches: 
Querrey - Cilic : over 3.5 sets @1.53
Federer - Berdych: 3:0 Federer @1.66

  with a small stake, you can try :
Groenefeld A./Peschke K vs Makarova/Vesnina : Groenefeld/Peschke to win @3.50

GL!
 

Sam Querrey vs Marin Cilic
Over 43.5 4/5 paddy power
Cilic to win 3/1 5/2 paddy power
I do fancy Cilic to win this match as he has impressed during this tournament and the only two sets he has lost were in the last round. It wont easy though as he will lose a set against his tough opponent who had a great win in the quarters

Galovic - Otte 3.84 Pinnacle
 
Going big for Galovic here. The guy is in the form of his life. He came from winning a challenger on hard, beating Basic, Caruso, Halys and now here he is showing even better tennis. Galovic had better opponents here. He was loosing from Florian Mayer, who cause some problems to Cilic on Wimbledon and then scored another surprising win over Gombos Otte gave everything against Janowic and Marterer having problems with a lot of DF. I see the match pretty equal with Otte slight favorite, but Galovic's odds must not been more than 2.50. Everything over 3 is clear value. I expect the odds to drop to around 3 until the start of the match.

Williams was just too strong and consistent for Ostapenko. I lost 7 units.
For today, my bet will go on Querrey and Berdych. I expect some 'surprises' in these 2 games.
Djoko and Murray have been lucky in the draw so far. Now they face real contenders.

Querrey has been really strong since the beg. of Wimbledon. He might be a little tired after 2 long games of 5 sets but I see him taking a set out of Murray. 5,8 for the victory is a little high and we never know what can happen. I will put 1unit on that.
Querrey +2,5 sets @1.85 (5 units) + Querrey to Win @5.8 (1 unit).
Berdych is very inconsistent this season but has shown some great tennis since the beg of Wimbledon. By the way, he was in SF last year here.
I will put 5 units on over 40,5 @ 2.25 + 1 unit for the win @4.51
Total is 12 units!

By the way, I like Cilic to Win Wimbledon at 7.4. I really think that he will face Federer in final and his odds will then be around 3. I will put 1 unit on that even though I really think this one is for Federer.
Good luck all,

Aljaz Bedene to beat Ivo Karlovic at 2.75 with bet365
Karlovic have played well lately on grass where his serve comes best to use. But he's also at the end of his career and faces a player who he's been having some big problems against losing three out of three but twice retired after losing first set. Anyway Bedene has had a great year so far and I think he may very well continue with a decent run in Wimbledon starting by knocking out Dr. Ivo.

Got to say this week fixtures are tough. I liked Houston but their second and third top goal scorers(Elis and Quito) are unavailable because of international duty.
Atalanta United DNB 3.24/+0.5 2.09(pinnacle)
I'm going to take a risk this week, splitting my unit into two. Atlanta hasn't been playing too well lately when playing on the road but their high pressing style could force Crew backline into mistakes. While Atalanta played in midweek, their front four(Almiron, Asad, Villalba and Martinez) are rested so they should all play in this game. Columbus Crew is like a box of chocolate, you never know what you could be getting from them each week so there is always a good chance that they won't turn up after their big win against Montreal. 

I was going to warn you about the possible danger there especially as it was a very popular pick over the internet. Worse still is the Pliskova relies on a huge consistent serve and once that serve is firing, she can bully her way past anything despite being handicapped on clay. I also never bet against Karlovic, and Raonic because they could frustrate you large. Davis has no major weapons!!!

Don't know about any.

Okay few days without any post, so i'll post my bet of the day...
 
Shapovalov ML @2,29 Pinn
Denis is huge talent and i love to watch him grow, this is his chance for first senior title and on home field. His servise worked very well whole tourney. On the otherside is Bemelmans which didn't beat any good player and he played his average tennis. Denis love this tourney and last year he lost in SF in very tight game with Evans, this is his time... Playing this really big

Wanted to write a longer post at some point, so here we go, feel free to skip if you care about tips only .
We're somewhere at the end of the first quarter of the season/start of the second one and I think it's been a fairly tough going for most punters really. Certainly not all, as we're seeing on this forum, and I myself am sitting somewhere in a very tiny plus at the moment, which is probably good given the big pre-AO slump, but also bad given that I had a tremendous run a few weeks a go.
Anyway, what I think is that we're now really going through some sort of a transition period, with many of the big names slowly falling away. Djokovic isn't a beast anymore, Nadal is beatable even by the likes of Querrey, Berdych and Isner have dipped big time, etc. Meanwhile, the new big names like Thiem, Zverev, etc. are yet to become very consistent. This is exciting on one hand, but it also muddies the waters big time in terms of betting, so one has to adapt somewhat. I'm certainly going to hunt for more value in the long shots department from now one if the opportunities arise, perhaps more Challengers as well. I wish there was some sort of a silver bullet, but there isn't - more research and more tough work awaits everyone who wants to bet on tennis now I'm afraid.
The one thing, for example, that I have strong feelings about now is that short-odds accumulators aren't viable in the current climate. When you have guys like Cilic and Berdych losing from massive leads nearly every single day, it's not "investing" (as some are calling short-odds betting), but walking through a minefield. In fact, perhaps the opposite could be a much better approach, throwing two underdogs together for nice returns, although that's obviously nothing for the faint of heart.
Am I just rambling or does anyone else have similar thoughts about the current tennis "climate"? Who do you think the next strong-but-not-best layer could be - I'm talking the next Berdychs/Isners/Tsongas? Personally, I'm thinking Pouille, Kyrgios, Nishioka, Goffin, Sock, with Zverev and Thiem perhaps rising above them.

Kenny de Schepper to beat Ilya Marchenko at 2.10 with bet365
I like Kenny today again. He already has beaten Ilya on indoor hardcourt in france before in Rennes back in 2012 on the challenger circuit in straight sets. He played well yesterday so I fancy his chances again today.
Richard Gasquet/Malek Jaziri under 20.50 games at 1.90 with bet365
I simply like this line because Malek usually is not good enough to play against top quality opponents like Richard. Especially not in france in a tournament against top quality french opposition. Richard comes into this well rested from his davis cup performance while Malek also has played a few matches since last friday in best of 5 sets twice beating the swedes Patrik Rosenholm and Isak Arvidsson and then a three set match against Tristan Lamasine where he turned the match around after losing first set 6-1. If something similar happens in first set today there likely is no way back for Malek as Richard is quite good when it comes to shutting the door against lesser opponents. I also remember a few months ago I think in octobre when Malek had won 2 matches in Metz and got taught a lesson by Gilles Simon losing 7-6 6-0. Malek is running into some big problems today of how to handle the previous champions smart tactical play from the baseline. Malek might make a tie-break but should be going down in at least one set by a double break. If he makes a tie-break the bet might be lost since I don't count on something like 6-0 6-1 happening for sure. 7-6 6-2 is not enough but I'll have to hope for Richard to close the door early on and never allow Malek into the match.

Sarmiento vs Tigre
Hosts are on a high. Since the appointment of Jorge Burruchaga as Coach (replacing Gabriel Schurrer), Sarmiento have not lost in three games - two away wins and one home draw. They come from a very good away win 3-1 against Quilmes, despite being a man down. The coaching change and mental recovery appear to be the keys behind this revival. Coach Burruchaga has ensured continuity by giving confidence to the same eleven in these three games. The team found balance and effectiveness,  especially in the offensive sector (scoring 7 goals and conceding 4 in the three games). Thus, they have added seven points and are very close to leaving the relegation zone - this is the main objective of the team in this game against Tigre and the next one away to Aldosivi, before the Christmas recess. And recent results have galvanized the local Junin population to support the team for this home tie.
The visitors, Tigre, have had a difficult early season as the team has been ravaged by continuous injuries to key players: Goalkeeper Javier Garcia broke his cruciate ligaments and has been sidelined since; the same injury was then suffered by key striker Lucas Janson (former Boca and the crown jewel of the team) as well as to Fernando Redondo Jr (son of the reknowned midfielder); while other key players like attacking midfielder Diego Morales, defender Fernando Godoy, Gaspar Iniguez and midfielder Lucas Menossi suffered muscle tears, sprains and other injuries. Thus, Coach Pedro Troglio has not chance to play a settled eleven in the previous  eleven match days. Some of these players (Godoy and Iniguez) have recovered. But the youth players, earlier drafted in to cover for the absences,  are now doing well and holding down positions in the team (especially defensive midfielder Alexis Castro, attacking midfielder Diego Sosa and striker Carlos Lunar). But Tigre has displayed inconsistency - alternating good performances (at home) with poor ones (away). The only player who has appeared in all the previous games, Martin Galmarini (defender and captain), is suspended for this tie after accumulating five yellow cards. This may weaken the visitors' defence.
Home team now has momentum, with a settled and increasingly confident eleven. The visitors have lacked team stability, are poor away from home and come with a suspect defence for this tie. Home win.
 

ITF Nashville
Elie - Di Lorenzo 2.73 Pinnacle
This is the best season of 30-years old Elie's carrier. She is playing strong for that level of tournaments and beat experienced Top 200 players like Hozumi, Georges and Glushko in the last month. Di Lorenzo is one of the many young talents, who has high hopes to show big potential some day. She got some luck in the tournament, because she beat two girls, who didn't have rankings. I don't know why Di Lorenzo is favorite here, but at least the match is 50/50. Elie's last two losses were from Haddad Maia and Ozaki, both of whom won their tournaments.

Alexandrova - Zanevskaya 2.26 Pinnacle
Alexandrova is a typical indoor hard player with very good service. She scored two convinsing wins against current and former Top 100 players. Zanevskaya is comming from clay courts, but showed good results on indoor hard. Both of her matches were far much closer than those of Alexandrova.
 

Bets won: Santos 3-2 Vitoria
                 Internacional 1-1 Ponte Preta
                 Sao Paulo 1-1 Gremio

Coritiba vs Santa Cruz
This match-up looks straight-forward but the game itself is likely to be tense. Hosts need three points to banish the relegation ghost and play the remaining matches in the championship with calm; and this game comes after a morale-boosting 2-0 home win against high-flying Atletico MG. Coach Paulo Cesar Carpegiani returns from suspension, as do key players left-back Carlinos and attacker Leandro. But important central midfielder John Paul remains absent and team will rely on Amaral.
Visiting Santa Cruz know that a defeat in this match against a fellow north-eastern rival will mathematically confirm their relegation. But the players are also keen to end these final rounds with dignity, after facing several off-field issues in this championship. Notably, Santa Cruz has been more compact and improved defensively in the recent matches. Coritba has also been solidly defensive and patient at home. Under 2.5 goals.
America MG vs Flamengo
Defeat for the hosts will mathematically confirm relegation. But their mind-frame can be read from the decision to sell off this game and earn extra income by playing it away at the Atletico MG stadium.
Flamengo comes from a bad patch of four matches without a win (three draws and one loss), practically waving goodbye to their title hopes. The goal now is to secure at least third place, to ensure automatic spot for the group stage of the Copa Libertadores.
America MG has recently improved defensively, with the last three matches all ending with a single goal (two wins and one loss). And I suspect that Flamengo will seek to rediscover their defensive solidity, following a recent leakage of seven goals in the last five matches. Under 2.5 goals.
 

Yeah, he has his chances. Klein also was close to take the first set, got break chance in second... but this is tennis. Nice odds.
Kobe challenger:
Saville - Ito 3.40 Pinnacle
Saville is one of those guys, who may always score with big odds and to lose against total outsiders. Two weeks ago he beats Nishioka, who is making better season than Ito. Ito didn't look good in the last few months. Probably he has some sort of problems. He was out for three months after grass season and is still far away from his best.
Sweet odds for Lucky Luke
 
 
 

Oeste vs Avai
Hosts are walking a relegation tight-rope, being first out of the relegation zone and three points away from the team below. Oeste has under-performed in this second phase of the championship but Coach Fernando Diniz has stuck to his style and set out a team that has not been winning of recent - but hard to beat with five straight draws now. While staving off relegation, Diniz is also building the team for next season, especially the Sao Paulo State championship (where he was runner-up this season).
Promotion-chasing Avai comes into this game after an important 1-0 home win against Parana and gaining 3rd spot in the table; and is now paying particular attention to the next home game against direct promotion rival Nautico. To this end, Captain and key attacking midfielder Marquinhos has been saved from this game against Oeste; while the game-plan is also tailored to reduce physical wear, possible injury and risk of cards or suspension - ahead of that important game. With a 4-point cushion over Nautico, the key objective for Avai is to avoid defeat against Oeste.
With both teams keen to avoid defeat in this encounter, Oeste Coach Diniz is likely to deploy his favored 3-4-3 formation to stifle the opponent. Avai Coach Claudine Oliveira will likely deploy an ultra-conservative scheme to foil the hosts, while conserving his players for the next game. Under 1.5 goals.
Nautico vs Goias
Promotion-chasing Nautico is coming from a disappointing 0-1 away loss to CRB, and is seeking an immediate reaction to recover points in this home tie. Hosts have a full squad with the return from suspension of three key players ie Left-back Gaston Filgeira, Midfielder Rodrigo Souza and striker Bergson.
Goias is coming from a disastrous 4-2 derby loss to Atletico-Go; in which they got three players injured and another two suspended for this game. Home win.