black_baar

Two weeks passed, and former champion Galatasaray still has 1 point. As far as I can see, the replacements for Fernando Reges, Henri Onyekuru and Badou Ndiaye is not performing well. Nzonzi, Jean Micheal Seri, Ryan Babel, Jimmy Durmaz and Emre Mor are newcomers. Yet, they have still Belhanda, Feghouli and Babel and these players can cause problems any time. Diagne is a big dissappointment in forward and Galatasaray fans are desparetely waiting for Falcao to be transfered. Seri is not playing today(red card)
Kayserispor signed Adebayor this week and he is expected to start in the starting eleven. I didnt watch Kayserispor this year. 
It is a must win game for Galatasaray and Galatasaray traditionally wins at Kayseri (they won last 4 matches at Kayseri). I feel it would be harder for Galatasaray today. If I have a bet in this match, I would try Kayserispor +0.5

Although it is too early to speak, everybody in Trabzon starts talking about championship this year. Team is good with qualiy players such as Jose Sosa, Abdulkadir Omur, Caleb Ekuban. they sold Yusuf Yazici to Lille. i like their new forward Sörloth. they also reinforced ther forward line with Daniel Sturridge. They won 3-1 against AEK midweek in Greece comfortably. I dont know if their coach will rotate players or not due to fatique. 
I also like Yeni Malatyaspor and their coach Sergen Yalcin. They won against Basaksehir last week. They have good players like Fofana, Thievy, Jahovic and Guilerme in their front line. Gokhan Tore can also cause damage to Trabzon defenders (He is injured but he can play last 30 minutes). Both to score has better odds than over 2.5 line and seems reasonable.

Honestly, I was expecting more goals in this match. Over 2.5 line won with 90+3 goal from Fenerbahce. 1 post for Basaksehir(Edin Visca's shot) and 2 posts for Fenerbahce(Deniz Turuc's and Vedat Muriqi's shots)

Kasimpasa chairman limited investments on the team this year. Too many players left the club (Trezequet to Aston Villa), and some new players signed. Suprisingly, they played well against Trabzonspor last week. They have a good coach. On the other hand, Alanyaspor kept their front line at the team (Junior Fernandes, pappiss cisse, efecan karaca) They signed two defensive greek players Giorgios Tzavellas and Manolis Siopis. Weather is very hot and humid at these times in Alanya, I dont know if this condition is in their favour or not, but Alanya has slight edge in this match to win for me.

Kayserispor has problems on the front line. They have lost 5 players from last year. They had only 3 shots on target against Alanyaspor last week. Ankaragucu is nothing more than the Kayserispor. They lost Tyler Boyd to Besiktas and couldnt find a replacement for him. They have financial problems. They only had 1 shot on target against Konyaspor. This was not surprising, because they have weak front line and Konyaspor is the most defensive minded team with coach Aykut Kocaman. 
Under 2.5 goals is reasonable for Ankaragücü Kayserispor match.

I think there is a confusion here, Moses plays for Fenerbahce. Isla and Moses were both in the starting eleven for Fenerbahce against Gaziantep last week. But this week they are both out due to injuries.

Although Gaziantep seemed unbalanced with a lot of new players signed, Fenerbahce played very well last week. But two players are injured and cannot play against Basaksehir( Mauricio Isla and Victor Moses). Hasan Ali Kaldirim is still injured. Defensive midfielder Jailson is playing as centre back. With the problems Fenerbahce facing at back, I can see Basaksehir scores with players such as Robinho(he seems not ready yet) and Visca. Fenerbahce can also score with strong front line like Muriqi and Kruse. Both to score and over 2.5 line are playable. 

Besiktas has problems. Atiba Hutchinson and Burak Yilmaz are important missings. They lost 3-0 to Sivasspor last week. Luckily, their opponent Goztepe is one of the worst team away teams. Besiktas will play aggresively in front of fans. This year they had scoring problems also in preparation matches. If they cannot score an early goal, fans will start protesting. I think fans are not happy with the ex-Basaksehir coach Abdullah Avci after Senol Gunes signed to National Team.

A few words about Fenerbahce. The newcomers Muriqi, Kruse, Rodrigues and Zanka are expected to start in the starting eleven. Tolgay Arslan, Serdar Aziz and Hasan Ali Kaldırım are injured. Kaldırım has no replacement. Right back Dirar is expected to play left back. since Aziz is injured and Skrtel left the club, there is a big question mark on who will play as center backs. Probably Zanka(dont know if he is ready) and Jailson (defensive midfielder). Although Ozan Tufan seemed well in the preparation matchs, fans are expecting Luis Gustavo instead. Veteran Belozoğlu is 36 years old now and cannot keep up the 90 minutes match. Upfront players seems less problematic.
Title contenders Besiktas, Galatasaray, Trabzonspor and Basaksehir all lost points in the first week of the Turkish leaugue. Fenerbahce plays at home and will be very motivated. No idea about Gaziantep.
 

A few words about Fenerbahce. The newcomers Muriqi, Kruse, Rodrigues and Zanka are expected to start in the starting eleven. Tolgay Arslan, Serdar Aziz and Hasan Ali Kaldırım are injured. Kaldırım has no replacement. Right back Dirar is expected to play left back. since Aziz is injured and Skrtel left the club, there is a big question mark on who will play as center backs. Probably Zanka(dont know if he is ready) and Jailson (defensive midfielder). Although Ozan Tufan seemed well in the preparation matchs, fans are expecting Luis Gustavo instead. Veteran Belozoğlu is 36 years old now and cannot keep up the 90 minutes match. Upfront players seems less problematic.
Title contenders Besiktas, Galatasaray, Trabzonspor and Basaksehir all lost points in the first week of the Turkish leaugue. Fenerbahce plays at home and will be very motivated. No idea about Gaziantep.
 

Adrian Mannarino to beat Mikhail Kukushkin at 1.62 with 888
Kukushkin is here as a LL. He won his first match of the qualy against the absolutely out of form Jack Sock but he needed 3 sets. After that he lost in a 3 set match against Rublev. Mannarino has fully convinced me in his first match here, winning against Garín in straight sets (6-4, 6-1). Just 1 week ago Mannarino won against Kukushkin in straight sets (6-4, 6-4) in Toronto.
Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 2.50 with 888
Nothing much to say in this one. I think Struff is a little bit underrated here. Struff convinced me with his victory in the first round against the always dangerous Karlovic (7-5, 7-6) while this will be the first match here for Tsitsipas who lost in the first round in Toronto against Hurkacz.
Guido Pella to beat (+2.5 Games) to beat David Goffin at 1.95 with 888
Pella is in a very good form while Goffin is still far from his best form. In his first match here Goffin won against Fritz in a 3 set match (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) and Pella won against Ruud in straight sets (7-5, 7-6). Just 1 week ago Pella won against Goffin in straight sets in Toronto (6-4, 7-6).
I know that im overbetting but the most importing thing is being in profit and I feel confident so let’s go (and like always said, anybody is forced to follow my bets, just the ones you like). I have to say that I saw Medvedev very exhausted in the 2nd set of his match against Edmund (even he almost lost that) so I was thinking on betting against the Russian but I have no confidence on Paire so if Daniil goes on probably I will bet against him in the next rounds. The other bet I had on my mind is Kecmanovic because Zverev is in a very bad form but I was not expecting a 1.60 for the german.. so finally I will not do. Like I told you, tomorrow morning i leave and i will be out for a week so good luck with your bets!

Diego Schwartzman to beat Marin Cilic at 5.00 with Betfair
I like how Diego has played on the grass when he met Sascha Bublik and I think he could trouble Marin big time.

Verdasco to win a set against Federer at 2.75 with Bet365.
As we all know, Federer is very vulnerable these days. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up losing to Verdasco here. Granted Verdasco has never won a match against Federer, this is his best chance to do so and I am sure he knows it as well. I have been noticing a pattern with Federer these days, he has found it difficult to close his matches out and there's moments during a match, where he plays like a complete mug. I am hoping there's enough dip in form from Federer for Verdasco to capitalise and atleast win a set. 

Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat (-4.5) Sergiy Stakhovsky at 2.04 with Unibet
Should be an easy win for Stefanos. Sergiy has been riding his luck to get to the quarterfinal and it's where it ends most likely with a loss by more than five games margin. Something like 6-2 6-4. What I seek here is the doublebreak by Stefanos and that is very possible that he can achieve, he's after all ranked 12 and Sergiy 100+ nowadays and it was a long long time ago since Sergiy even won a challenger title.

alison is defending champion in budapest an won her second title on carpet in quebec 2017. she played other finals on ihard and grass as well on 100k and 50k level. so her best surface is ihard for sure and not clay.
i like swiatek too but i think odds are too low 

You're absolutely right mate, on the paper i fully agree that probably most of those odds looking correct but i think we have a good chance to go out with a decent plus here.
Ebden is always underrated in my opinion, we all forget about the fact he is still a Top 50 player and was ranked #39 in the world a couple of months ago. I watched three matches of him this year and i think his form is decent enough to beat Struff who is always a hot & cold player. I watched all his matches in Auckland this week more or less and i can't say i am impressed. Vs. Djere he looked poor, came back from being 2-5 down in the first set winning the tiebreaker from being 3-5 down and then Djere retired after he got broken in the second set. It was a very weak level of play. Ebden on the other side looked in good shape but had some issues with his serve in Perth but looked much better in Sydney this week, i know he lost to Andreozzi but i would not overrate that at all. Andreozzi is a completly different matchup compared to Struff, Ebden likes those hard hitting opponent and big servers. On the other side he definitely has some issues with the likes of Ferrer, Andreozzi, Fognini, Simon and so on. I would consider that as a 50/50 match with a small advantage for Ebden who's playing at home. 
The thing about Cuevas vs. Lajovic is simple: I do not rate Lajovic as a player who can trouble Cuevas from the baseline as Lajovic hasn't a weapon in his game to push Cuevas and dictate the play. Cuevas looking good vs. Klahn, then looking bad vs. Humbert but let's face the truth...a guy like him at his age is focusing on the bigger events and tournaments to make money. Lajovic on the other side is in pretty weak form although he won two matches in Doha i think he looked poor there, especially on serve. Broken a dozen times, he already was broken 12 times in four matches. Cuevas beat him on clay three years ago, probably not that important as it was three years ago and on clay obviously BUT i think Cuevas is a very bad matchup for Lajovic as Cuevas is a guy who also likes long rallies and you can't frustrate him with that. In my opinion Lajovic is one of the most overrated Top 50 players these days, i he can lose literally to anyone in Top 100 and i do rate Cuevas despite age, form and ranking as a very dangerous player who should have won more titels in his career than he won. Cuevas is better on hardcourt than his record suggests. For me this is an equal matchup where i like Cuevas as he has the better serve and Lajovic struggled a lot with holding serve recently.
Jaziri is a pure value bet as the odds are based 100% on his retirement in Sydney vs. Querrey. Officially it was "knee pain" but i doubt he is seriously injured or something, he was 16 14 down outpowered by Querreys crafty strokes and serves and he looked really frustrated + he looked off like he has a jetlag or something, maybe the journey from Pune to Sydney was too much as he only had two days in Australia. I expect him to do much better vs. Ivashka. Ivashka is dangerous with his power but let's be clear: If Jaziri is fully fit he should be the favorite...
Last one is Feli Lopez. I am not sure if Lopez is a good bet at all but it's definitely value. Lopez just announced he will marry some new women in his life soon, i do not know if that's the reason why he didn't play a match yet in 2019 BUT he is in Australia for some time now and preparing for the AO. Lopez and his game style is awkward as **** and i can see a guy like Thompson having massive problems with that. Those serve & volley style and slices all over the place are tough to handle for a guy who is one-dimensional like Thompson. I can remember Thompson failing a lot of times at the Open as he was too nervous and i can say if he is Lopez will take advantage of the fact. Thompson has a weak record in Melbourne, last year he lost as a massive favorite to Nicolas Kicker and i can see the same thing happen again.

Double parlay for me tonight

Iga Swiatek (vs.Bolsova Zadionov) + Badosa Gilbert (vs.Raina) @2.10 (local)

Swiatek is talented girl on the beginning of her professional career. She showed that she's very strong mentally as well,overturning the match with Olga Danilovic,winning tie-break in the decider. Iga won in the only match they played last year on Pelham ITF 62 61. It was on the clay,and i suppose that this surface will be even bigger advantage for Polish girl.
Badosa i think is better player than Raina and i really like her result in the previous round where she won over Denisa Allertova. 

GL
 

Alright, here we go with the final Grand Slam of the season and, before I begin, I'd just like to wish good luck to everyone who's going to be betting on it!
Now - I haven't had a long post in a while and this is a good excuse to have one, so here we go. This season has been quite juicy so far, especially if compared with the disaster that went by the name of 2017, so I'm going to be slightly more ambitious with the first round than I usually am. There are many interesting matches and I have a good feeling about quite a few of them, so I'm going to go for all kinds of bets in the very first round and no outrights at all. If I was asked for some tips, however, I'd have Nadal and Halep as the favourites and Bertens and Tsitsipas as the dark horses. Let's hope all goes well and that there will be a profit to be collected before the second round begins.
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Aljaz Bedene at 1.90 with Ladbrokes
The first bet that I'm going to go for is on the man who's made me so many points a few weeks back. That was on clay and this is on hard, but Nikoloz is reasonably universal and the fact is that he should be in a much better position going into this than Bedene, who's had pretty much zero match practice in recent times and who might be here just to collect the check. The last point might be stretching things a bit, but really, one needs to have some matches under the belt given the long match format and Bedene doesn't have that, so opposing him at odds that aren't even all that skinny makes a lot of sense to me.
Jil Belen Teichmann to beat Dalila Jakupovic at 1.67 with BetVictor
The one player that I really liked in the qualifiers was Jil Belen Teichmann and I think that she has every chance of getting a first round win as well. Jakupovic is one of those players that have just dodged having to qualify - and I have to tell you that I'm not sure that she would've been able to go through three rounds of tennis if she was asked to do that honestly. She made a lot of great results during the grass court seasons, with wins over Mertens and even Osaka, but, since then, she's done little of note. And, even more importantly, her last outing ended with her retiring in the middle of the second set. It's the same case as with Bedene then, with us getting two ways of winning here - either Teichmann beats her fair and square or Jakupovic just shows up for the check. I'm more than happy to chance that.
Dayana Yastremska to beat Karolina Muchova at 1.53 with Paddy Power
Karolina Muchova was another player that I quite liked in the qualifiers, but she faces a much sterner test than Teichmann here in the form of the in-form Yastremska, who really has impressed me on quite a few occasions in this season. What I really appreciate about her is the fighting spirit that she brings with herself, every single time that I saw her she was fighting to the end, with her recent match in New Haven being a splendid example of that if I remember correctly. She's one of the younger talents that I've been tracking in this season and she's generally been playing a level above Muchova, so, despite the qualifying success, I think that the Czech is going to come up well short here.
Fernando Verdasco to beat Feliciano Lopez at 1.66 with Ladbrokes
As much as one might like these two guys, it's fair to say that this match is going to be played in the twilight of their careers. That said, it seems to me that Lopez is losing his skills almost as quickly as Ferrer, while Verdasco still has a couple of good performances in himself, which is why I'm going to back him here. The big problem that I have with Lopez is that he seems to have lost a lot of endurance over the last year or two - and that is a tremendously important issue given that this match could go on for four or five sets.
Marco Cecchinato to beat Julien Benneteau at 1.67 with William Hill
Julien Benneteau is another player that's in the twilight of his career. I can't quite remember when exactly he wants to call it quits, whether it's this very US Open or it's one of those French tournaments at the end of the season, but that doesn't really matter. He was quite poor in Winston Salem and I'm not sure that he will be able to put up one last heroic performance. Cecchinato has almost no (or no) wins on hard courts, but he came close to getting some recently against much tougher and sharper players, so this is his chance - and, over five sets, he could even just outlast the Frenchman and win that way.
Vasek Pospisil to beat Lukas Lacko at 1.82 with Pinnacle 
Just a few months ago, I was ranting about how I don't like Pospisil in the singles and I was backing Bolt to win a set against him in one of the grass court tournaments, that much I remember. I haven't fallen in love with him since, don't get me wrong, but he has got some wins and some confidence back, while Lukas Lacko has been just moving around without soul in recent months. I was thinking about backing him against Zeballos in Winston Salem, but I dodged that bet and luckily so. Pospisil also has the home advantage here in a sense, so I'd have him as a somewhat bigger favourite than the odds suggest.
Jason Kubler to beat Roberto Bautista Agut at 4.33 with Ladbrokes
I haven't really covered any underdogs just yet, but here we go, I did manage to find one that I quite like in the form of Jason Kubler, who did really well in a couple of Challengers recently and who could find himself in a favourable spot against Roberto Bautista Agut, who didn't really play on American hard courts in the recent weeks. In fact, he hasn't played for more than a month now, with fitness issues troubling him the last time out. I reckon that he's sufficiently fit given that he's decided to show up, but Kubler is a good enough player to take advantage of any rustiness and I think that he'll be more than fired up for it given all the injury struggles he had in his career. He appears to be without pain now - and the odds for him to win a match against a presumably rusty opponent look tasty enough.
Jan-Lennard Struff (vs. Smyczek) + Agnieszka Radwanska (vs. Maria) at 1.95 with Paddy Power
Robin Haase (vs. McDonald) + Natalia Vikhlyantseva (vs. King) at 2.08 with Bet365
Aryna Sabalenka (vs. Collins) + Daria Gavrilova (vs. Sorribes Tormo) + Kiki Bertens (vs. Kr.Pliskova) at 1.93 with Bet365
Diego Schwartzman (vs. Delbonis) + Barbora Strycova (vs. Lao) + Fabio Fognini (vs. Mmoh) at 1.95 with Paddy Power
Backing a lot of reasonably big favourites isn't particularly difficult, but these picks aren't completely mindless, so there you go. Smyczek has been rather dreadful recently and I'm afraid that the end of his career might be near, Radwanska looked decent against much tougher opposition in recent weeks, Robin Haase has played himself into some solid form (and McDonald's desperate performance against Edmund doesn't inspire any confidence either), Vania King has played pretty much no successful singles in this season, Collins was desperately poor out there in recent weeks (I saw the match against Yastremska and I was shocked actually), Gavrilova nearly upset Sabalenka and SST is two steps down, Kr. Pliskova has been largely non-existent lately, etc. As always, it'd be a bit lucky to see all these guys deliver, but I'm hoping that we get only one letdown in this batch.

Peter Polansky to beat Daniel Elahi Galan at 1.63 with Pinnaclesports
Daniel has a 4-1 record on hardcourt on the ATP tour but those wins comes from Bogota where he beat Pere Riba and 3 davis cup wins against not so good hardcourt players with Thiago Monteiro being the best he's beaten in Davis cup on hard. He came from a clay challenger title in Italy to play in Los Cabos but lost badly in qualies to Marcos Giron. He may have known he was gonna get into maindraw anyway since it was kind of obvious that Ryan Harrison would pull out but now he faces a Peter in some kind of form after his Granby challenger title where he defeated some players out of top 200 including fellow canadian veteran Frank Dancevic. But it was nonetheless quite good effort by him to win the title and a title is always a title no matter who you faced. He also won his round 1 match in Los Cabos last season against similar opposition as Daniel.
Amanda Anisimova to beat Qiang Wang at 1.775 with Pinnaclesports
Amanda has played well to qualify for San Jose and Qiang comes of her first ever title in Nanchang but that was on clay in China and to travel some distance and play on a different surface could be tough for her just a few days after. Also Amanda beat Qiang in Miami earlier this season so it's highly possible she wins again.

Elena Vesnina to beat Taylor Townsend at 1.53 with Marathonbet
Stranger things have happened, but come on.

Before the final, Zverev made 10 aces against Carreno-Busta and 8 aces against Coric in 2 sets.
Isner is no better returner than those and sometimes (like 40-0 games) lets it go even the serve is not that intense. We can see 3 sets in this match-up, so  I think Zverev over 8,5 aces is valuable.

Before the final, Zverev made 10 aces against Carreno-Busta and 8 aces against Coric in 2 sets.
Isner is no better returner than those and sometimes (like 40-0 games) lets it go even the serve is not that intense. We can see 3 sets in this match-up, so  I think Zverev over 8,5 aces is valuable.

S.Peng/A.Bogdan - Under 21.5 games at 1.91 with Paddy Power
A purely situational play. Peng was really poor in the Australian Open due to an injury and it's hard to say whether she's already past it or not. If she isn't, Bogdan should be able to beat her in two easy sets. If she is, on the other hand, the match could also be done and dusted easily from the other side. Put simply, the chances of this being a quick match look much better than the chances of this being a long one, so I'll take my chances. Normal stakes though, as I don't have any specific info about Peng.

Donna Vekic to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 2.25 with bet365
I think Donna is the better player here and should win this if she has any top 50 ambitions this season. Marketa is heavily overrated since she won that Biel title last season. I don't see any reason why Donna shouldn't be able to win this. Marketa is also still 17 years old and does have problems to win matches. She is struggling to win and should do so also in this match. I may be totally wrong about both these players but Donna has a lot more experience to count on and that could be a decisive factor. I would be surprised if Marketa sails to a comfortable victory. In fact I think it could be the opposite outcome where Donna sails to a comfortable victory.
Czech what's your opinion? Have I missed something about Marketa?

Jason Kubler to beat Alex Bolt at 1.77 with Unibet
A reasonable price for Kubler imo. He's definitely the more talented lad of the two (he would probably be top 50 now without all those injuries) and he beat Bolt quite easily not that long ago, so chances are that he's going to prevail here.