atish29

Last Saturday wasn't good, but it does seem to be one bad day followed by one good day at the moment so hopefully that means it will be a profitable weekend. I have 6 bets in the 3 National League's this Saturday.
Maidenhead v Solihull
Maidenhead have only lost one of their last 5 games, but they haven't played anyone as good as Solihull in that spell. They lost to bottom side Braintree, Got 4 points in their two games against Aldershot, beat a severely weakened Gateshead 1-0 and then on Tuesday night beat Maidstone. So they have played 3 of the 4 teams below them in the table and a one team who were struggling to put 11 fit men on the pitch. Solihull are now in 3rd place and are just 3 points off Leyton Orient. They did need a replay on Tuesday night to overcome Halifax in the FA Trophy, but obviously with Maidenhead also playing on Tuesday that shouldn't come into it. They also landed the max bet against Gateshead in their last game easier than the 2-1 scoreline suggests. They should be odds on to win this so 11/10 with Betway looks a big price.
Maidstone v Dagenham & Redbridge
I was half tempted to put Maidstone up as a bet on Tuesday night, but thankfully was put off in the end as they lost 4-2 to Maidenhead. That made it 11 losses at home in the league with just the one victory. Whoever comes in as manager has to improve that home form fast. It is often said that a 3G pitch is an advantage for the home team, but it clearly isn't in this case as Maidstone have won 6 times away from home. Dagenham caused us a painful lost a couple of weeks ago after coming from 3-0 down to go 4-3 up and then draw 4-4 with Boreham Wood. Since Dagenham scored two very late goals to beat Hartlepool I have put them up 3 times as a bet and they have failed to win each time. Fair to say they owe us won again and they do look a cracking be here. Their away form has been strong winning 4 of their last 6 and only losing 1-0 to Sutton and Orient. They performed with credit at Salford in the FA Trophy last weekend and they should be favourites to win this. At Marathons' 83/50 they look a really good bet.
Salford v Gateshead
Salford have certainly bounced back from their tricky spell where it looked like they may have fallen out of contention for the title. So on the back of 4 losses on the bounce they then went and beat Wrexham and Leyton Orient without conceding a goal, which was important for them as defensively they had looked very suspect in recent weeks. Gateshead might not be quite as weak as they were against Maidenhead or Solihull, but they have lost manager Steve Watson to York in the meantime. This could hardly be a tougher game for the new manager given Salford have only conceded 13 goals at home losing just one and obviously they have such an impressive team. I think this could be a fairly easy win for the home side as I don't think Gateshead are anywhere near to a side who are 8th in the table at the moment. I think they can overcome the -1 handicap which is 17/10 with Betway.
Bradford Park Avenue v Blyth Spartans
Picking up just 1 point in their last four have meant BPA have fallen from the top spot in the National League North table. It was a poor loss last week to FCUM as well given they are in the relegation zone and had a few players missing. This game should be even harder as well given Blyth haven't lost in 10 league games now. Strangely enough their last defeat was to FCUM. They were superb in the FA Trophy last week beating Boreham Wood and they have recovered nicely after a very poor start to the season. I would have these two much closer together in the betting than the bookies have them and the 23/10 with BetVictor is well worth taking.
AFC Telford v Kidderminster
Telford have very similar home form to Salford in that they have only lost once and conceded just 12 goals. Their away form looks like it will stop them being possible title winners, but they are obviously bang in the play-off hunt. The one team they lost to at home was Bradford whilst they were flying so there is nothing wrong with that at all and they really ought to be shorter than the 8/5 they are with William Hill. The prices make little sense really given Kiddie are 6 points behind their hosts having played a game more. As I have mentioned a few times on here in recent weeks they have been in awful form for weeks now. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and a win over lowly Hereford was the positive result in that spell. Not surprisingly they sacked their manager last week, but they still lost to Boston and they really do look in free fall at the moment. In my view Telford should be close to even money to win this so they look a fantastic bet.
Truro v Weston-Super-Mare
Ignore the fact Truro lost 5-0 to Stockport in the FA Trophy last Saturday as they played a strong team in good form plus they were pretty much down to the bare bones. They had players cup-tied as well as injured and suspended and they will be able to put out a much stronger team on Saturday. Not only that but Weston are a million miles away from being Stockport. These two teams played each other in the previous round of the FA Trophy and Truro won 4-0. That was their first game back in Truro and they are now there full time. Truro are pulling themselves away from the relegation zone and I think they will be safe. They have won 5 of their last 10 games and their 4 defeats were against Oxford City, Torquay twice and Welling. Weston are nowhere near the level of those 3 and I would be shocked if they didn't go down. There is just enough in the price at Marathon of 53/50 to make the home side a play here.
Solihull 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betway
Dagenham & Redbridge 2.5pts @ 83/50 with Marathon
Salford -1 1pt @ 17/10 with Betway
Blyth 1pt @ 23/10 with BetVictor
AFC Telford 5pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
Truro 2pts @ 53/50 with Marathon
 
So on Twitter and the message below people have been letting me know about the Telford drift. I have been told that Kidderminster were also heavily backed last Friday before the Boston game and we obviously know how well that gamble turned out! Telford were backed after I tipped them up so some people have got a bigger price on Kidderminster thanks to me. This is far from the first time it has happened to one of my strong bets and it will be Asian money. The Asians base their bets purely on data and I actually like it when they have a different view to me mainly because it allows us to get a bigger price, but also because I am usually on the right side of the result. One that sticks out is last season when I was big on Aldershot to win at Dagenham in a teatime game on TV. This was the week when Dagenham announced they were in trouble and had sold a few players. Clearly the Aisian's took none of this into account as on Saturday afternoon all the money was on Dagenham. Aldershot duly won. Now I obviously can't guarantee Telford will win tomorrow, but what I can guarantee is they are huge value at 2/1 which is freely available with a few bookies including Bet365. I have had two Kidderminster fans on Twitter tell me they have no idea why anyone would want to back them and the fact they are even money for an away game at a team who have only failed to win 4 games at home season is just bizarre especially when you add into the mix their current form. What on earth the Asians use to come up with their bets I don't know but they would be better off doing more homework. 
I don't usually go in again when the price drifts, but plenty of punters do and there is nothing wrong with going against the crowd (given I often back the outsider it works for me) or in this case going against a few people in Asia! Based on the current price I am now bumping Telford up to a max bet. Basically if they had been 2/1 last night when I did my preview I would have put them up as a max bet so I am now adding a further 2 points on them. They might not win, but that price is a huge error and Telford should be the 11/10 shots.

Saturday sees the annual Non-League Day where people who support Premier League and Championship sides are encouraged to go and support their local Non-League club. Sadly I am working so won't be able to make it to a game myself, but if you are free then I do encourage you to go and watch a live game.   Right onto this weekends bets and after a couple of losing sessions hopefully I can find some profit this weekend. I don't think this has ever happened before but I have 1 bet from every single Step 1 to Step 3 league making for 6 bets.   Wrexham v Eastleigh
It looks another tricky National League fixture list and am only getting involved in this game. BT Sport have chosen to show this game on Saturday tea time and it should be an interesting encounter. I have written about Wrexham's lack of goals before and it continued again on Tuesday night as they drew 0-0 with Halifax. That means they have scored just 11 goals in their 14 games so far. Defensively they are still strong though having conceded just 7 times. Eastleigh aren't exactly prolific either having scored 13 in 13, but again defensively they have been fairly solid conceding just 12. It was a little disappointing they lost at Boreham Wood on Tuesday, but that was only their 2nd loss in 9 matches. Now clearly the stats point to a low scoring affair and I think that will happen, but the bet for me has to be the draw. Wrexham have now drawn 5 of their last 6 games and Eastliegh have drawn 5 of their last 8. I don't tip the draw up often, but at 12/5 with bwin or Sportingbet it has to be the bet. Also worth chucking a few quid on the no goalscorer option at 9/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.   Darlington v Stockport Things are not good at Darlington at the moment. First they lose their manager to York and then they lose their caretaker managers without them playing a game. They have been in poor form on the pitch as well having won just once in their last 10 games. Now Stockport are summed up by their form figures of won 5 drawn 2 and lost 5. They are very inconsistent and blew a 3 goal lead in the FA Cup last weekend before losing the replay. Their league away form is shocking as all 5 of those loses have come on the road and they have won just once. Usually that would be enough to put me off, but Darlington could be there for the taking and hopefully Stockport can punish them. I certainly think that at 51/25 with Marathon they are worth backing.   Hemel Hempstead v Weston-Super-Mare Now Hemel were one of my ante-post tips for this league and I still think they will be in the promotion picture, but I am taking them on this weekend with Weston. Hemel have a massive injury list at the moment and lost their last league game 5-1 to Chippenham. Last Saturday they lost 3-0 to Bath in the FA Cup although the last 2 goals came in injury time at the end of the game. I don't like blindly tipping a team just based on an injury crisis and I want extra reasons for opposing a team. Weston are in decent form at the moment and are unbeaten in 4 league games winning 2 and drawing 2. That includes a point against 6th placed Chelmsford and they beat 5th place Dartford 3-0 last time out. Now they have yet to win away having drawn 3 and lost 3, but they are clearly in decent nick at the moment and I think Marathon's 67/25 is too big about an away win.   Dulwich v Needham Market Now Dulwich caused a bit of a fuss in the week when they came out and said they don't want to take money from any company related to betting. This came to prominence after the league's fair play awards are to be sponsored by a tipping website. I personally think it is a shame that a club feels a need to preach about these things especially as the people who are anti gambling don't really understand the issues and that there are plenty of us who enjoy a bet, bet sensibly and can make money from it. They will probably hate the fact I am tipping them up this weekend especially as one fan told me that he didn't want people to get into Non-League football via betting on it! Dulwich look set to be in the play-offs at the very least again this season and have lost just 2 league games to Billericay and Hendon. I was at the Hendon match and they totally dominated the game only to lose to a wonder goal by Hendon with what was the last kick of the game. They should really have too much for a Needham side who have won just 3 games all season and just 1 of those has come in their last 6 games. Dulwich should be odds on so Betfred's 23/20 makes a lot of appeal.   Slough v Biggleswade Slough beat Dulwich in the FA Cup last month and they progressed to the 4th Qualifying Round last week when beating Poole. That of course was a minor shock, but in many ways it wasn't the biggest surprise given how those teams have fared so far this term. Slough have won 7 and lost 2 of their 9 league games. The first of those was on the opening day of the season against Kettering who are top at the moment, and the other was to a resurgent St Neots recently. They have scored a huge 29 goals in those 9 games and they should be capable of beating Biggleswade. Now the away side are having a good season and are only a couple of points behind their hosts. Their away form has been a bit suspect though and you may remember I opposed them last week when they were away at Kings Lynn and they duly lost 3-0. Slough are 5/4 with Marathon and I would make them a shade of odds on myself.   Hednesford v Witton The away side might be a point above their hosts in the table, but I think they will be two points behind them come 5pm on Saturday. Hednesford have certainly improved since Rob Smith has come back as manager and he has been aggressive with his signings. They have won their last two and although they conceded 8 in the two games prior to that it was mainly after them that Rob set about improving the squad. Witton seem to be in real trouble at the moment having lost their last 4 games and their last 3 games on the road. BetVictor are biggest at 11/8 for the home win.   Wrexham v Eastleigh 1pt Draw @ 12/5 with Sportingbet/bwin No goalscorer 0/5pts at 9/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral   Stockport 1pt @ 51/25 with Marathon   Weston-Super-Mare 1pt @ 67/25 with Marathon   Dulwich Hamlet 2.5ps @ 23/20 with Betfred   Slough 2pts @ 5/4 with Marathon   Hednesford 1pt at 11/8 with BetVictor

Tranmere v Chester 13/2 at the time of placing the bet, Now 8/1. Obviously this is a high risk gamble and you bet at your own peril, but surely Chester have a chance here against a somewhat misfiring/inconsitent Tranmere haven't they? Sure if you look at the table, recent results, form of Chester etc I guess Tranny would be the team to take on board, but one of three results can happen in any match.  Now, Chester got beat Tuesday 2 zip at home but reading the Devachat forum it doesnt tell the whole story, if you believe it. 1st half Woking have one chance all half and score, Chester have a few half chances. 2nd half Chester hit the post a couple of times and then the Cards get a 'against the run of play' second following a awful back pass. Now rewind to where I wrote the 2nd half Chester bit, (and please humour me here) if those two chances had gone in,  its quite possible Bignots team could of gone on and got a win against an inform Woking side, but then again maybe not. Of course thats all speculation, but the point is here they are damn well improving as an attacking unit, which is something they haven't all season thus far. 
Now Tranmere are quite capable of winning this by a handsome margin or losing one nil and a risky 0.5pt says Chester will win. As I say, punt at your peril.
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Torquay 13/5 v Dover As I've mentioned in a previous thread I've been following Torquays forum closely, again this is another highly risky punt considering Torquays form all season, but as a supporter of the away side here its been worrying me immensely. Why? Well, I am a  believer of style v style, Torquay by Owers own admission following an emphatic 4 nil win v Maidenhead are/wants to be an attacking side,  contrast that to Dovers man marking, all over the pitch/very direct counter attacking 3-5-2 style and you an intriguing encounter in store. Read interviews of managers which have lost v Dover and they will generally say Dover are and ugly side but get results. To my mind Dover (and it pains me to say it) are in a false position in the league. Torquays forum three or so weeks ago was a place of hopelessness, and now a position of light at the end of the tunnel, if Torquay get a goal start they'll win. 0.5 Home win. 
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Maidenhead v Aldershot 11/8, surely safety bets are the way to go, arent they? I was surprised on Sunday when I saw the Shots at this price and backed them straight away, This league is driving me nuts, any team can beat another it seems, well I am not so sure in this encounter, I do fancy Aldershot heavily, I am wondering whether Devonshire has the wherewithall and squad to beat a very fancied (to my mind) side, of course he has, but coming to terms with the loss of being without a prolific goalscorer is a major problem. Shots havent travelled well so far this term, but I think against Maidenhead they have a very decent chance v a very near neighbour. 2 pts & NAP

sorry mate..it's indeed 1.2/1