freddie01

Tottenham to beat Palace 1.53 Bet365
Early Payout
1 unit

Anhelina Kalinina to beat Diane Parry at 1.62 with William Hill
I've always seen Parry as a somewhat overrated player, and Kalinina seems to be on the up right now, having beaten two tricky opponents in Bejlek and Osorio. The conditions seem to be a good fit for her, and Parry shouldn't be able to deal with her heavier shots.

Anastasija Sevastova to beat Julia Riera at 1.60 with Unibet
Sevastova seems to be picking her spots well, and I do fancy her against Riera, who hasn't played much since the Aussie Open, and who had some luck against Li a week ago, as the latter was physically limited.

Peyton Stearns (-3.5) to beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova at 1.91 with Bet365
AKS was awful in her last match against Vickery, and Stearns will surely be looking to do well back on home soil after what was a rather disappointing start to the season. She's more talented and the better player already, so I quite fancy her in this spot.

Aston Villa to beat Forest 1.62 Betfair

Small bet on
Ipswich
Southampton
Sunderland
4.29 Bet365

Small bet on
Ipswich
Southampton
Sunderland
4.29 Bet365

Small bet on
Ipswich
Southampton
Sunderland
4.29 Bet365

Cirstea to beat Vondrousova - 2.46 with Betfair
Vondrousova, like Kuds, hasn't been in great form with only one top 30 win since the US Open. That did come in the last round but Samsonova is prone to throwing a nightmare match in and Cirstea can make this hard for her. 

Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Xinyu Wang at 1.40 with Bet365
Wang has been in an awful form so far this season, while Haddad Maia hasn't done much wrong, and their last weeks went in the opposite directions as well. Hard to see Wang changing the course in such a short period of time.

Elina Avanesyan to beat Anastasija Sevastova at 2.43 with Unibet
Avanesyan is a very promising player in my eyes, and having her as such a big underdog against someone who's essentially a part-time player now just seems wrong to me. Sevastova had an easy opponent in the first round, so hard to say where she's at, while Avanesyan has been generally really good so far in 2024.

Beatriz Haddad Maia (-1.5 sets) to beat Magda Linette at 1.90 with Unibet
Right now, Haddad Maia seems to be a level or two above Linette, who struggled against the hardly-WTA-level Eala in the first round. Can't see past the world's number 13 here honestly.

Tatiana Maria to beat Zhuoxuan Bai at 1.68 with Unibet
Bai is still quite inexperienced indoors, and Maria hasn't played all that poorly so far this year. She should improve now back in Europe, and the conditions should give her enough to work with. She crushed Bai last year, and she should get the win here much more often than not as well.

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Ekaterina Alexandrova at 1.59 with Pinnacle
Going for a repeat of today's bet. Ostapenko is on fire this week, and Alexandrova's epic match against Vekic can't help.

Gateshead v Weston Super Mare I'm not surprised there has been some money for Weston because Gateshead looked a mess on Wednesday night, which is no surprise given the overhaul of players. However, whilst I am going to back Weston here, it is worth adding that they were playing by far the best side in Non-League this season. Chesterfield were really impressive and put them to the sword. Weston are clearly no Chesterfield and with a few days training they might be able to improve enough to win this, but I will take a chance that Weston can beat them.   Kidderminster v Altrincham One person I didn't expect to see back in management at this level was Phil Brown given how badly he did at Southend, but he has appeared at Kidderminster and I can only see them going down from here. To be fair I suspect they would have gone down anyway and they were awful at Rochdale last week. I wasn't the only one who backed them though because they were really well backed and even at half time when it was 0-0 they were still a shorter price than the one I put them up at. Altrincham had a tough Christmas as they got very lucky to get a point at Bromley before only picking up a point in the 2 games against Halifax. What was much better though was the win over Barnet last Saturday and they are way too big a price here to beat Kidderminster.   Hartlepool v Hampton & Richmond I don't often regret bets, but having watched how poor Darlington and Hartlepool were on Tuesday night I did regret those two. I thought they might both have turned a corner, but both were awful. Maybe back at home Hartlepool might be able to outplay Hampton in the same way they did Oxford last week, but this might even be a harder tie for them. Hampton did finally lose last week, but I guess it had to come eventually and for me they have a real chance of causing an upset here.   Bishops Stortford v Aldershot and Welling v Chesterfield I was surprised to see Aldershot at around 5/6 when I first looked at the fixtures because they really should be too strong for the side currently bottom of the National League North. I am going to add Chesterfield to them to make a double. Now I fully expect plenty of changes from the side who faced Gateshead on Wednesday and it is likely to be a similar team to the one who hammered Southport in the previous round. Apart from being away from home this game is no tougher for me and that Southport match highlighted the depth Chesterfield have right now.    St Ives v Nuneaton Very keen on the home side here. They have won 6 of their last 7 and in those 6 wins they have scored a huge 26 goals, having not scored less than 3. They were very impressive in the 2nd half last week to beat an in form Leiston side 5-0. Nuneaton have lost their manager, have no home and have lost players. They have won just one of their last 7 games and if St Ives can repeat their recent home performances then they really ought to be winning this.
Prices from around 10.30 Friday morning    Weston Super Mare 1pt @ 17/5 with William Hill (bigger with Betfair and Paddy Power take up to 3/1) Altrincham 2pts @ 9/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 15/8 and take up to 11/8) Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 18/5 with Betfair, Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 3/1) Aldershot/Chesterfield 1pt double @ 2.19/1 with Betfred (bit bigger with Betfred and take up to 7/4) St Ives 4pts @ 6/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 8/11)

Rochdale v Kidderminster Risky one this, but Rochdale are down to the bare bones at the moment and if Kidderminster are to win another away game this could be the one. Rochdale never got involved at all against Fylde and were deservedly beaten. Kidderminster had a staggering 27 shots against Boreham Wood for an xG of 2.81 with Wood only having 5 shots with an xG of 0.79, most of which came from their 2nd goal. It was a little bit the story of Kiddies season though where they have out shot their opponents, but still failed to win. Like I say though this does look a very good time to be facing Rochdale so I make them a bet.   Braintree v Hampton & Richmond 3 losses on the bounce for the home side including losing 3-0 twice to Chelmsford and whilst Hampton's price has come in I still think there is value in them to continue their long unbeaten run. We finally got paid out on backing them on New Years Day and whilst Slough did create loads of shots and probably should have been in front at half time, in the 2nd half most of their chances were minor ones. Hampton got over the line though and they just keep finding a way of not losing. I'd make them even shorter than the price they've been backed into.   Gloucester v Southport/Slough v Taunton Happy to carry on opposing Southport and I think Gloucester are playing better than they are at the moment. Gloucester have been strong at home of late and were better than Hereford until the final 20 minutes (including the 10 minutes of injury time), when to be fair Hereford were all over them. The return fixture was fairly level and a draw the right result. Southport were well beaten by Curzon and if Gloucester can perform at home as they have in recent weeks then I think they will win this. Slough played well in both games against Hampton and Taunton have lost 7 players this week plus the players aren't happy with how the club are being run at the moment. Not ideal circumstances to be facing one of the in form sides at the moment. Both sides are being backed and I will put them in a double.   Beaconsfield v Swindon Supermarine (Southern Premier South) One win in ten for the home side and although Swindon were well beaten by Merthyr on Boxing Day that was just a blip as they went straight back to winning form against Didcot. They are the form side coming into this.   Harrow v Hanwell (Southern Premier South) Harrow have only picked up 4 points in their last 10 games and have only won 4 times all season. Hanwell had been on a poor run of form, but they have won their last 2 and drew with Totton prior to that so are coming into this game in better nick than their hosts.   Mickleover v AFC Telford (Southern Premier Central) The home side's long wining run at the start of the season seems a long time ago and they have won just twice in their last 10 games. They won their last game, but that was against Long Eaton who only have 8 points. This will be a much tougher test as Telford are unbeaten in 13 games and I'm surprised they are such a big price to win this game. As well as backing them for today's game I am also backing them to win the league. They are 4 points behind their hosts having played the same amount of games. Redditch have the same points as Mickleover having played a game more and Needham Market are also on the 44 point mark having played a game less. Leamington are on 42 points, but have played 3 more games than Mickleover and Telford. Stamford also have 40 points so it is quite tight, but Telford are the biggest side amongst those teams and that might just give them edge. They took a little time to adjust after relegation, but have clearly got better as the season has gone on and I think they have a very good chance of winning the title. Bet365 are 8/1 with each-way terms the first 3 1/5 odds, but I have taken the 10/1 with William Hill the first 2 at 1/3 odds. I think either offer is acceptable so up to you which you take, but I will settle to Hills terms as that's the one I have had the bet with.   Prices from 9am this morning 
  Kidderminster 1pt @ 13/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair(take up to 11/5) Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 5/2 with Skybet and BetVictor (27/10 with Coral and take up to 2/1) Gloucester/Slough 1pt double @ 2.15/1 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4) Swindon Supermarine 1pt @ 9/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Hanwell 1pt @ 7/5 with Skybet, Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes (Betfred are 6/4 and take up to 5/4) AFC Telford 1pt @ 23/10 with Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 9/5)   Ante-Post AFC Telford 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill (e/w 1/3 first 2)

Bromley v Altrincham This game is live on TV and I'm going to take a chance on the away side. Granted Bromley have only lost one in their last 10, but that was when they blew a 2 goal lead against Aldershot. They were poor against Southend last week and were lucky to win which given Southend's issues was a bit of a surprise. I think there is a case to be made that Altrincham are the 2nd best side in the league at the moment and obviously they are making a mockery of their 125/1 ante-post quotes. I'd still have Bromley as favourites given they are at home, but I do think Alty have a better chance than the odds suggest.   Chesterfield v Aldershot This bet is probably going to be a loser, but Aldershot are too big here so I have to take a flyer at the prices. Chesterfield have won every game at home in the league bar one which they drew and will win the title with ease, but Aldershot at their best are dangerous, as they have proven plenty of times this season. They will need to defend a lot better than they did against Eastleigh last Saturday as it was a horror show on that front, but they did end up scoring 3 goals and as their manager said afterwards they won the 2nd half, but 5 was just too many goals to make up. I just wonder if they struggled a little after beating Stockport a few days previous and whilst away from home they haven't been as good as they have at home they are capable of putting in a performance and making things hard for Chesterfield.   Wealdstone v Hartlepool Proof last week how bad Dagenham are at home because Wealdstone managed to get their first away win of the season having only picked up 2 points on their travels prior to that. At home they have won 7, drawn 3 and ironically it was Dagenham that were the only team to beat them. Hartlepool didn't do too badly in the 1-0 loss to Chesterfield last Saturday, but they haven't really been that good for a while now and I'm keen on the home side getting another 3 points here.   Woking v Maidenhead I'm always wary of opposing a team with a new manager, but I am going to take on Woking again here. I'm amazed that Maidenhead are nearer the play-offs than the relegation zone because they looked awful earlier in the season. They put in the worst performance I have watched so far this season against Southend and I really did think this was the year they might drop, but Devonshire has pulled it out of the bag yet again. They are unbeaten in 7 league games now and whilst Woking will take a bit of confidence from the Dorking win, they might just need a bit more work.   Aveley v Slough I don't think there is a huge amount in the price here on Slough, but I am going to continue my opposition of Aveley who just aren't as good as they were earlier in the season. Slough have only lost twice in their last 10 and I think they are playing better than their hosts right now.   Truro v Havant & Waterlooville Havant do need to prove they can do it away from home, but they have won all 3 games since King was sacked scoring 9 goals in the process and have kept clean sheets the last twice against Hemel and Taunton. They look a different side and given the quality through the squad they really shouldn't be in the relegation zone. Truro to be fair to them are in decent nick themselves having won 3 of their last 4 league games and the defeat was to Maidstone. On paper though Havant are the better side and now they have the winning feeling back they are a fair bet here.   Altrincham 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 7/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 17/2 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes (Coral are 9/1 and take up to 6/1) Wealdstone 1pt @ 13/10 with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Maidenhead 1pt @ 5/2 with Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 2/1) Slough 1pt @ 9/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Havant 1pt @ 5/2 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair

Aveley v Hungerford I watched a bit of the Aveley game against Welling on Monday night and when Welling had their keeper sent off I thought they would win quite comfortably. The player who they put in goal looked pretty ropey when he failed to deal with a cross along the floor in what was a slightly bizarre 2nd goal. Aveley struggled in the 2nd half though and in the end conceded again and ended up with just a point. This came on the back off losing 4-3 on Saturday to Farnborough, a side who hadn't won away all season, having been 3-1 up. I just get the feeling that after their very strong start they are beginning to reach their natural level squad wise and that for me gives Hungerford a chance here. They are in the play-offs in their division and haven't lost in 9 games in the league. They knocked out Truro in the previous round and could well knock out another NLS side here.   Barnet v Maidstone Two sides I took on last week in the FA Cup unsuccessfully with Barnet getting a draw late on (which they by all accounts did deserve) and Maidstone getting a victory over a disappointing Barrow. I'm pretty keen on Maidstone here because I think they will be taking this more seriously than Barnet will. Barnet have their replay live on TV on Tuesday night and given the winner plays Eastleigh it is a really good chance to reach the 4th Round. They will surely be putting in their effort for that and of course the league campaign and making sure they finish in the top 3. I think Brennan will rest players for this with the replay and a busy Christmas schedule in mind. Maidstone don't have another game until the following Saturday so there is no real reason why they would rest players and no doubt they will want to go and cause another Cup upset.    Chippenham v Gloucester Fair bit on the line here as both sides have players who used to play for the other team and Gloucester's manager used to manage Chippenham. As I put last week ahead of the Chester game which was called off, Gloucester's last two performances have seen a big improvement which were a 3-0 win over Braintree in this and a 4-2 win over Spennymoor in the league. They do still have to prove they can do it away, but I think they are over priced to win this given those last two efforts.   Curzon Ashton v Macclesfield I know Curzon are 6th in the National League North at the moment, but I think you can make a case for Macclesfield having a stronger side than their hosts. They have done well since Alex Bruce took over and are scoring lots of goals as well. They put 4 past Alfreton in the previous round which made up for the fact Alfreton had beaten them in the FA Cup earlier in the season. Curzon are unbeaten in their last 5 league games, but they haven't had the hardest fixtures in the world and this will be a tough test for them. I think Macclesfield are way over priced for this.   Dagenham & Redbridge v Peterborough Sports Taking a bit of a flyer here, but Dagenham haven't been overly convincing at home so far this season and Sports have been in good form on the whole in recent weeks. In the last 10 games form table they are 5th and I think they are the type of side who could potentially beat a misfiring side like Dagenham. They have only won 3 at home in the league, whilst losing the other 8 games and that has to be concerning so I give Sports a chance of causing an upset.   Oldham v Mickleover Taking even a bigger flyer here, but given how poor Oldham were against Ebbsfleet in their last game I will take a chance that high flying Mickleover can cause an upset. I'm not sure how seriously Mellon will take the FA Trophy and he might use the game to rest some of his first team, even so they are still very up and down regarding their performances. Fair to say Mickleover aren't in as strong form as they were earlier in the season and they have only won once in their last 7 league games, but they had an impressive 3-1 win at Spennymoor in the previous round. Obviously Oldham are the most likely winners, but at a huge price it is worth taking a chance on Mickleover.   Prices from Thursday 6pm   Hungerford 1pt @ 15/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair (21/5 with Coral and take up to 3/1) Maidstone 2pts @ 4/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (19/5 with Hills and take up to 5/2) Gloucester 1pt @ 29/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Macclesfield 2pts @ 100/30 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Peterborough Sports 1pt @ 9/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill, Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 7/2) Mickleover 1pt @ 15/2 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 6/1)

Maidstone v Barrow Into the FA Cup now and I think Barrow are a fantastic price here to beat Maidstone. To be fair to Maidstone they are having a very good season in National League South and have only lost once at home in the league, but I think Barrow will have too much for them. Pete Wild showed what a good manager he is at Halifax and he fully deserved the move to the EFL last season when Barrow hired him. He had a solid first season, but they have kicked on again this time around and are currently in 3rd place, which given the quality at the top of League 2 this season is no mean feat. They are unbeaten in 10 league games and have only lost 3 all season. Given Wild has come from Non-League he won't underestimate Maidstone and I think they will want a Cup run as well. I'd be disappointed if Barrow didn't prove their class here.   Newport v Barnet A few weeks ago I might have been tempted to back Barnet, but their defending of late has been woeful and if National League sides are able to put 3 or 4 past them then a League 2 side, even one in the bottom half, should be able to score at least a couple of times if they continue to defend as badly as they have. They are a side who do have goals in them of course, but Newport are in really good form at the moment having only lost to Mansfield in their last 5 games and they have beaten league leaders Stockport 2 games ago. They eased past Oldham in the 1st Round and I think they can beat another Non-League side here.   Chesterfield v Leyton Orient (Sunday) Chesterfield have already beaten League 1 Portsmouth in the 1st Round and I think they can beat another here. They will be National League champions in a few months time as they are by far the best side in the division and I thought they were very comfortable against Portsmouth. Orient haven't won in 7 league games and their only wins in the league prior to that run were against Reading and Carlisle who are in the relegation zone. They have draw 5 of those 7 games to be fair, but I don't think there is a huge amount between these two sides, especially in a one off game like this.   Prices from 2pm Friday   Barrow 4pts @ 19/20 with Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 8/13) Newport 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365 (take up to 11/10) Chesterfield 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4)

I have to say that the National League fixtures in all 3 divisions look really tough this weekend and I only have one bet. It is however a max bet at odds on which is something I rarely do, but confidence is high and for me the value is there. There are 4 other bets at Step 3.   Oldham v Ebbsfleet You could see that Micky Mellon has improved Oldham on Wednesday nightagainst Barnet. Having seen some of the comical goals that Barnet have been conceding of late I think he knew that they could allow Barnet plenty of the ball, but they would get their chances. It is no surprise to see that Barnet had 75% of the ball in the first 15 minutes and then 70% in the following 15, but they did very little with it as Oldham made themselves very hard to breakdown. The first shot Oldham had was the penalty which was gifted to them and Barent were fortunate not to have the keeper sent off. In the 2nd half Barnet equalised with a penalty which ended up being their only shot on target. They had looked more likely to kick on and win the game at that stage, but they didn't have another shot for nearly 20 minutes when the game was long gone. Oldham punished Barnet's defensive mistakes which is no surprise given they have someone of the quality of Norwood. If Barnet had taken the good chances that came their way in the first half after the goal maybe we would have seen a different result, but it was the perfect away performance and Oldham have a talented squad. I rarely tip up odds on shots especially ones as short as Oldham, but for me they look good things to beat Ebbsfleet. They did get a point on Tuesday against Maidenhead, but they created very little and had an xG of just 0.16. They are in dreadful form and Oldham should have way too much for them.   AFC Sudbury v Stourbridge I don't dip into the Southern Premier Central too often as highlighted by the fact I've only put up 3 bets in the division so far this season. 2 of the 3 bets have been winners though and I am doubling the amount of bets had on Saturday. I will also be content if the number of winners doubles as well. Sudbury have won 3 of their last 4 games including beating Coalville on Tuesday night 3-0. I'd make them favs to beat a Stourbridge who hadn't won in the league for 7 games until beating Long Eaton 3-0 on Tuesday. They are dreadful though (just 4 points so far) and Sudbury put 6 past them recently themselves. The value is there in a home win for me.   Berkhamsted v St Ives Berkhamsted aren't much better than Long Eaton and have also won just once this season although 7 draws have helped them get 10 points. St Ives had also only one just once in the league prior to their 3 game winning spell they are currently on. They have beaten Coalville and Halesowen in that spell as well so it isn't like they are beaten rubbish and there is clear improvement in the side. They were 1 up against Aveley in the FA Trophy last week as well before losing 2-1, but that was still a very good effort. If they take those performances into this game then they ought to make it 4 league wins on the bounce.   Mickleover v Nuneaton Despite all the off the field issues at Nuneaton they have been doing really well on the pitch. They have won 8 of their last 10 league games and have won 5 on the bounce. They look over priced to beat top of the table Mickleover who after going on an impressive winning run at the start of the season have now not won in 5 league games and lost to Kettering 2-0 on Tuesday night which was a big shock. I don't think there is much between these two sides and therefore the price on Nuneaton is over the odds for me.   Carshalton v Wingate & Finchley Into the Isthmian Premier for the last bet of the weekend and I think the away side are a big price to beat a Carshalton side who are struggling after a good start to the season. They have won just one in their last 8 league games and were hammered 4-0 by Hastingson Tuesday night. Wingate's last 10 games have seen them win 5, lose 5, score 19 and concede 19. They did lose on Tuesday 2-1 to Chatham, but they are better than Carshalton and I think Wingate are in better nick than their hosts at the moment. 
Prices from Friday around 10am   Oldham 5pts@ 4/6 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Coral (take up to 1/2) AFC Sudbury 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 11/8) St Ives 1pt @ 6/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to Evs) Nuneaton 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1) Wingate & Finchley 1pt @ 15/4 with Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 2/1)

Only brief reasons for the tips today as not much time, but hopefully a profit to be made.
  Eastleigh v Boreham Wood Good win for the home side on Saturday and they hammered Wood in the FA Cup a few weeks ago. They probably want to make up for that performance which was shocking, but Eastleigh have been in very good form at home including the win over Altrincham on Saturday.   Ebbsfleet v Maidenhead A game Maidenhead would usually lose, but Ebbsfleet have to be opposed at the moment as they look desperate and losing 4-0 to Oxford City at home is not good. Maidenhead won at Solihull on Saturday and seem to have hit peak form.   Rochdale v Altrincham Rochdale deserved the win when I took them on against Aldershot on Saturday, but Altrincham are the better side for me and I am happy to back them to bounce back here.   York v Oxford City The fact York played how they did on Saturday was why I didn't want to go mad on them. What was interesting was that the manager said he could see it coming based on how they trained on Friday. Oxford have been good in wining their last two and whilst they have only won once away from home, I think they have a chance to get something here given how York are playing at home right now.   Alfreton v Chester Good home side against a poor away side here so I think there is a bit of value in the home teams price.   Buxton v Hereford I wasn't originally going to put Hereford up as I worry about their away form, but Buxton are in poor form and have lots of injuries at the moment so will take a chance that Hereford have enough to get a win.   Farnborough v Worthing Farnborough have yet to lose at home and have yet to win away so am happy to back them to beat a Worthing side who just struggle for consistency.   Eastleigh 1pt @ 31/20 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 5/4) Maidenhead 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4) Altrincham 1pt @ 9/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Oxford City 1pt @ 16/5 with Skybet and Coral (take up to 5/2) Alfreton 1pt @ 29/20 with Coral and Bet365 (take up to 6/5) Hereford 1pt @ 21/10 with pretty much everyone (take up to 7/4) Farnborough 1pt @ 6/5 with Skybet and Coral (take up to Evs)

Rochdale v Aldershot Look it is fair to say Aldershot's away form is nowhere near the level of their home form as they have won 3 and lost 6 on their travels. Given that it does make it slightly odd they went to Swindon and put 7 past them in the FA Cup, but they have gone to Boreham Wood and Solihull to win away which are tough places to win at. I will also give them a pass at Eastleigh as their keeper got sent off and they ended up with an outfield player in goal. They are just too big not to back here though especially as Rochdale have only managed 2 wins at home this season. I wouldn't say they have played badly as such, but I do think Aldershot carry the bigger threat right now and for me 3/1 is a point bigger than it should be.   Woking v Oldham Granted Oldham's last away game in the league saw them have just 3 poor quality shots at Fylde, but they are a big price here so I will take a chance. I think Micky Mellon has a bigger task on his hands than I thought he did when he took over and they haven't really played all that well, but then Woking are in a poor place right now having finally sacked their manager after losing to Oxford City last week. I thought the Ramsgate defeat might have been the final straw but clearly not. So whilst I hardly want to go mad on Oldham they are too big a price to win this as they are more than capable of doing so. Worth adding that Fylde defeat is their only league defeat in 10 although they are drawing lots at the moment.   York v Hartlepool York are hardly ones to go mad on either, but I would have them as favs for this and I'm not surprised they are being backed. They have won just once at home in the league and drawn 5 of their 9 games, but their are signs of improvement that don't seem there with Hartlepool right now who have lost 6 of their last 8 games, beaten just Eastleigh and drew 2-2 with Ebbsfleet last week. Whilst it was a dramatic injury time with Hartlepool going 2-1 up and then Ebbsfleet equalise, Ebbsfleet had an xG of 3.12 and Hartlepool's was just 0.9. I was tempted to go 2 points on York, but will stick to a point.   Curzon v Matlock Got to chance Matlock given Margetts is now up to 28 for the season which is just mental. He's on fire right now and he will give them a chance of causing an upset against Curzon in the FA Trophy.   FCUM v Guiseley The away side are doing very well at the moment having lost just once in their last 10 league games and FCUM are having a poor season so far. They have won just once in their last 9 league games and I'd have the away side as clear favs for this.   Prices from 7pm Friday   Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1) Oldham 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 2/1) York 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365 (take up to 6/5) Matlock 1pt @ 10/3 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 5/2) Guiseley 1pt @ 6/4 with Betfred, Skybet and William Hill (9/5 with 365 and take up to 6/5)

Aldershot v Kidderminster I did have a look at Aldershot being a possible upset last week, but left it alone in the end so whilst I wasn't completely surprised that they did beat Swindon I certainly wasn't expecting them to score 7. Some of the defending left a lot to be desired though and Aldershot took the chances that came their way. Back to league action and I am surprised they aren't odds on for this. They are in the play-offs, have only lost once at home and are playing the side currently bottom of the table. Aldershot were a bit disappointing in their last league game against Dorking, but they have been in very good form otherwise and they should have too much for Kidderminster.   Boston v Hereford I am slightly worried about Hereford's away from and that Boston's home form is much better than their away form, but Hereford are doing much better overall at the moment and I think a price of over 2/1 offers value. They gave it a good go against Gillingham in the FA Cup last week, especially in the 2nd half, and they did win their last away game at Chorley. Overall they have only lost once in their last 6 league games and that was at Alfreton who are 4th. Like I say Boston have some good results at home, but they did lost to Banbury, only beat Gloucester 1-0 and I watched the 1-1 draw against Scunthorpe and Scunthorpe put in a shocking performance that night. That leads me to think that if Hereford play well they will come out on top and are certainly the value play.   Scunthorpe v Gloucester City City are terrible this season and I am pretty much resigned to the fact we will be relegated already. We've changed the manager and seen little improvement and I just don't see where the performances to keep us up are going to come from. What we don't need is a trip to a Scunthorpe side who have the best team in the divison and one that have really shown their dominance at home. Apart from the 3-0 defeat against Buxton (the replayed game and came at a time where they might have gone out of business) they have been superb. They put 3 past Southport, 4 past Darlington and Scarborough and 6 past Spennymoor and Bishops Stortford in their last 2 home games. I just don't see how we can keep them out and given we have only scored 13 goals I don't how we score either. Odds against on the -1 looks a huge price and really it should be another 3/4 goals at least.   Eastbourne v Braintree On the face of it Braintree's away form doesn't look great given they have only won once, but the 3 losses on their travels have come at Taunton, Torquay and Yeovil which are all pretty tough assignments and they have got a draw at 2nd place Aveley. The loss at Yeovil is their only defeat in their last 10 league games and they are doing really well at the moment having put 4 past Havant and St Albans in their last two games. Eastbourne are having a shocking season given they invested a fair bit of money and went full time. It has been a bit of a failure and every chance they will be in a relegation battle all season. I'd make Braintree slight favourites here.   Bradford Park Avenue v Matlock (Northern Premier) Really keen on Matlock here whose season has turned around on the signing of Jonathon Margetts and he scored all 4 goals as they beat Radcliffe 4-0 last week having scored both goals in their 2-0 win against Basford the Tuesday before. Bradford have not done well since being relegated and have only won 3 league games all season. They finally sacked the manager this week as well. I can't believe that Margetts won't add to his tally here.   Folkestone v Billericay (Isthmian Premier) I do think Billericay will find it hard to catch Hornchurch who have looked really good all season, but they have got themselves up to 2nd place and are performing much better than they were. They have won 4 of their last 5 including beating Chatham 2-0 on Tuesday night. The head to a Folkestone side who have lost their last 3 games 3-0 (Kingstonian), 4-2 (Hornchurch) and 3-1 (Carshalton). Odds against looks a decent bet to me.
Prices from Thursday 9pm   Aldershot 3pts @ 5/4 with Bet365 (take up to 5/6) Hereford 1pt @ 11/5 with Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 7/4) Scunthorpe -1 3pts @ 21/20 with Skybet (take up to 4/5) Braintree 1pt @ 7/4 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 11/8) Matlock 2pts @ 6/5 with Betfred, Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 5/6) Billericay 3pts @ 23/20 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 4/5)  

My thoughts on this weekends FA Cup action.   Sheppey v Walsall This should be a complete mis-match and it should be an easy win for Walsall on ITV4 on Friday night. Sheppey play at Step 4 in the same league as one of my local teams Beckenham and whilst I have not had chance to watch them this season yet, I did go a few times last season including when Beckenham were hammered by Dagenham in the FA Cup. Given Beckenham reached the play-offs in the end it gives me a good guide that Sheppey, who are worse than that Beckenham side, shouldn't really be capable of giving a League 2 side with too many concerns. I will be taking Walsall on the -2 handicap as given the game is on TV I suspect they will put out a strong line-up to avoid an embarrassing defeat.   Eastleigh v Boreham Wood All National League tie and whilst I tried to take Boreham Wood on in the previous round I am with them here. I think they have improved since beating Welling and Eastleigh just seem to be all over the place at the moment. Capable of good performances, but then terrible for others including last week against Maidenhead. For me Boreham Wood are just too big a price given there is very little between the two sides.   Oxford United v Maidenhead Taking a huge flyer with this one, but Maidenhead have certainly improved their performances recently and whilst they travel to 2nd in League 1, I suspect Oxford don't really care too much about the FA Cup this season given getting into the Championship would be a huge achievement. Alan Devonshire loves to cause upsets in the league and whilst chances are they will lose, I give them a slightly better chance than the odds suggest so will take a punt on them to cause a big upset.   Ramsgate v Woking A chance this game wont take place, but Ramsgate look a very strong Step 4 side this season and did very well to beat Totton in the previous round. We can ignore their FA Trophy defeat on Tuesday as they rested players for this game and I think they have a chance of beating Woking who just haven't convinced me at all of late.   Sutton v AFC Fylde Sutton are really struggling in League 2 this season and they might well be coming back to Non-League football. Whilst Fylde have struggled as well, they have improved hugely since sacking their manager and the two wins over Oldham and Gateshead have been superb. Play like they did in those two games and they have a great chance of winning a fixture which could be a league game next season.   Yeovil v Gateshead I feared for Gateshead when they lost their manager to MK Dons and they drew with Rochdale before that heavy defeat to Fylde as mentioned above. Yeovil are beginning to look really good in the National League South and they do look like the most likely title winners right now. I'm sure though they will be keen to beat a National League side to prove how good they are and with Gateshead looking vulnerable right now this looks like a good chance for the home side.   Slough v Grimsby Not a huge surprise that Grimsby sacked Paul Hurst last weekend given they have really struggled for form and they have picked up just 2 points away from home this season. I've tried backing Slough a few times recently and they keep drawing, but I do think they are better than their league position suggests and they could make things very tricky for their League 2 opponents on Sunday afternoon.   Charlton v Cray Valley Paper Mills I must admit I didn't expect this game to be on TV because Charlton are at home, but given there is just 3 miles between the two sides grounds I guess that trumped the fact it is the league side at home. I know Cray did us a big favour in the FA Trophy last week and at home they might have had a small chance, but I just can't see how Charlton don't make sure they aren't embarrassed on TV by their local small Non-League club. League 1 to Step 4 is a huge gulf and they should be capable of over coming the -3 handicap.   Acca I have come up with a 6-fold of teams I think look bankers over the weekend. Friday's 2 games should go the way of the League sides so Barnsley and Walsall hopefully get the acca off to a good start. On Saturday I think Bristol Rovers, Cambridge United and Stockport will beat Whitby, Bracknell and Worksop respectively. Finally we may as well put Charlton as they ought to boost the returns even at around 1/10.   Prices taken from around 9.30pm on Wednesday.   Walsall -2 1pt @ 11/5 with Coral (23/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair take up to 7/4) Boreham Wood 1pt @ 9/4 with Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power (365 are 5/2 and take up to 15/8) Maidenhead 1pt @ 8/1 with William Hill (9/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral and take up to 6/1) Ramsgate 1pt @ 11/2 with BetVictor and William Hill (6/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral take up to 7/2) AFC Fylde 1pt @ 18/5 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/4 with Paddys and Betfair and take up to 11/4) Yeovil 1pt @ 23/10 with Skybet and Coral (12/5 with Bet365 and take up to 15/8) Slough 1pt @ 3/1 with everyone (13/4 with Coral and take up to 5/2) Charlton -3 1pt @ 9/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 6/4) Barnsley/Walsall/Bristol Rovers/Cambridge United/Stockport/Charlton 1pt acca @ 1.74/1 with Bet365

Oldham v Altrincham I wrote in the preview for Tuesday's games that I thought we might have got away with one with Oldham beating Rochdale on Saturday based on the stats. That as well as the price drop meant I left them alone against Fylde and it was certainly the right decision as they were awful. They barely created a chance and in the end Fylde ran out very easy 3-0 winners. I was clearly surprised that they were so bad, but it does suggest that Mellon might have his work cut out. First home game in charge might well see some improvement, but we know how good Altrincham are and for me they have to be backed.   Woking v Bromley A goal on the counter attack meant Woking beat Eastleigh on Tuesday night which was a much needed win for them. Bromley meanwhile needed a wonder goal in injury time to beat Dorking, but that continued their superb run of form which is only ruined by a poor performance at Chesterfield. They are the likely title winners though so nothing that wrong with that and I just can't have them at such a big price to win this.   Curzon Ashton v Chester After a slow start to the season Chester have found their form of late and have won their last 3 games 2-0 which includes a win over Hartlepool in the FA Cup. I would make them favourites to win this as I think we will see Curzon struggle a bit after losing their manager to Kings Lynn and they have lost their last 2 league games.   Eastbourne v Slough I thought when Slough came back from 2 down to level it at 2-2 on Tuesday night against St Albans that we were in with a chance, but then Slough conceded a 3rd. That was their 1st defeat though in 6 games whilst Eastbourne have only won once in their last 6, ironically enough that was a 3-2 win against St Albans. Slough have drifted out and look a big price because I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides.   Royston v Needham Market (Southern Premier Central) The away side have only lost once in the league all season and they pushed York so close in the FA Cup the previous round so they are looking very strong this season. Royston have only lost once at home, but they have only won once in their last 6 games and Needham look a decent bet to pick up another 3 points.   Didcot v Sholing (Southern Premier South) Sholing now have former Sutton and Havant boss Paul Doswell in charge and after a poor run of form they are doing much better and are now unbeaten in 5. They look much stronger than a Didcot side who got thumped 7-1 by Totton on Wednesday night. They have won just once this season and have key players missing through injury and suspension on Saturday. I think they look the best bet of the weekend.   Prices from Thursday afternoon    Altrincham 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365  (11/5with Paddy Power and Betfair and take up to 13/8) Bromley 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Chester 1pt @ 29/20 with Paddy Power and Betfair (Skybet are 13/8 take up to 5/4) Slough 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 15/8) Needham Market 1pt @ 5/4 with Betfred (Skybet are 13/10 and take up to 11/10) Sholing 2pts @ 11/8 with Skybet, William Hill and Bet365 (Betfred are 6/4 and take up to Evs)