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YorkshireFootyFan

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    Football Model, volunteers required

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    I have just done a sample match of a similar project with some rugby following friends, and the sample went very well. It didn't really turn up any bets for the crowd but the prices were very close to the odds offered by the bookmakers. As you would expect the individual prices I also supplied to the contributors identified some bets for the outliers.

    I do have a track record of successful modelling, and the above requirements from yourselves are not that great. Is no one interested?

    Football Model, volunteers required

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hello, 

    I wonder if anyone would be interested in helping me conduct an experiment. I want to apply some Wisdom Of The Crowd thinking to a football model. 

    For more information on WOTC read here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd .

    I would be asking participants to predict how they expect teams to perform (perform and not results) against their own standard level. So if we used a scale of 0-10, you might predict say for Manchester City at home to Burnley, you might anticipate Man City playing at an 8 and Burnley at a 3, I would then apply this to my model to generate, expected goals whiich would then be simulated through a random match model to generate odds. I would send you your match odds, and I would publish for all participants to see the collective data/odds.

    I might run a short pilot on this during the summer for the MLS or a Scandinavian league to see how it goes and to fine tune it for the start of the UK season. 

    Is anyone interested in helping.

    English Football Punters Prices

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted · Edited by YorkshireFootyFan

    I have a football model that calculates win prices and over and under prices. I will post the output up here, if anyone wants to use it be my guest.

    There are several inputs that can be tweaked depending on various things, if you would like to know more or to help with the inputs, leave me a message here and i'll get back to you.

    This week only the National League is available, League One and Two will be online next week, followed closely by the Championship, with the Premier League lagging behind.

    I will identify no bets and make no claims. I assume that is okay. I won't disclose how the model works but will happily discuss anything else.

     

    punterslounge.xlsx

    Speedway Grand Prix Model

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Speedway Grand Prix Model [h=1]Slovenian Grand Prix – the recommendations[/h]

    Slovenian Grand Prix

    Overview Once again the bookmakers especially Bet365 are taking the view that the inside gates are going to hold the advantage but we have seen many times that it’s dangerous to presuppose old advantages will stand firm. Emil Sayfutdinov misses the GP following his recent fall and that is bad news from a betting perspective as it has led the bookmakers to recognise further the claims of Darcy Ward and champion elect Tai Woffinden. The aforementioned pair contributed greatly to our profit last time out so the recognition they are now receiving will make turning a profit somewhat harder tonight and the value is going to be found at longer odds amongst the mid ranking riders.

    Heat 2

    This isn’t that strong a heat, Gollob is still rated on former glories setting the market up nicely, Fredrik Lindgren is the one at 7.5 with Bet365. 1pt win Fredrik Lindgrn 7.5 Bet365

    Heat 3

    A much stronger heat but drawn in gate 4 has led Bet365 to go a standout price on Tai Woffinden and at 3.25 again with Bet365 he’s worth a bet, 2.5 with Ladbrokes. 1pt win Tai Woffinden 3.25 Bet365

    Heat 4

    Again we look to Heat 4 and Bet365 for the value and Krzysztof Kasprzak at 6.0 is the one, especially with the modest Ales Dryml in gate 3, Kasprzak has a good chance of seizing an early advantage. As much as we respect Iversen in gate 1 he should not be odds on, he sets the market up nicely for us. 1pt win Krzysztof Kasprzak 6.0 Bet365

    Heat 8

    Not an easy heat but Fredrik Lindgren should not be overlooked at 5.0 1pt win Fredrik Lindgren 5.0 Betvictor/Ladbrokes

    Heat 11

    1pt win Greg Hancock 3.6 Bet365

    Heat 13

    A soft heat which Tai Woffinden can take. 1pt win Tai Woffinden 2.5 Ladbrokes They also mention that there will be some rugby bets available for games playing tomorrow.

    Speedway Grand Prix Model

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Speedway Grand Prix Model So how did Sportscompiler´s speedway model do? Shortlist bets (ie the pure system bets with no human input) Total Stakes 15 riders identified at 1pt each they returned 22.2 pts. Recommended bets 10.5 pts staked returned 22.2pts Winners were Heats 2, 7, 11, 12, 13, 14 Sportscompiler will be producing similar analysis for the remainder of the GP season, if permitted I´ll post it up here again.

    Speedway Grand Prix Model

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    The pure system/model bets are the shortlisted ones. The recommended bets have some human input. Latvian GP Overview We will start our betting analysis of tonight´s Latvian Grand Prix with an overview of the meeting. Some of the themes touched upon will be constant throughout the analysis so it´s worthwhile qualifying them here to avoid repetition throughout the piece. A little background. Tonight´s GP is the first in Latvia since 2009, that year ended a run of four consecutive GPs and it is worth noting Greg Hancock won two of them, since then and particularly this year his form has waned and the Sportscompiler speedway model suggest the bookmakers are overestimating his chances on a heat by heat basis. Another rider who is overrated by the bookmakers is Tomasz Gollob. Again we feel his chance of success in most heats has been overestimated. Conversely, Tai Woffinden, although clearly seen as a live contender by all of the bookmakers is still underestimated based on the figures generated by the model. The same can be said of Darcy Ward. The main differences of opinion seem to be down to the draw. Time and time again the bookmakers have shortened up the rider in gate 1, subsequently the model identifies plenty of value when one of the better riders is starting from gates 3 or 4. Identifying the bets The model prices each rider´s chance to 100%, we then add 5% margin to each rider. If the price offered by the bookmakers is bigger we add the bet to the shortlist. Final selections are based on further analysis by the Sportscompiler staff whom apply their personal expertise to the model´s groundwork. Heat 1 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 3.0 > Betvictor The presence of Iversen in gate 1 and the overrated Gollob in gate 2 sets up the market. Hopefully Lindbeck won´t apply too much pressure to Woffinden from gate 4. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 2 Shortlist Darcy Ward > 5.5 > Bet365 A tough heat but the price of 5.5 for Darcy Ward is too big, it´s reassuring that Stan James and Ladbrokes agree and price him much more realistically at 3.50 Recommended Bet 1pt Darcy Ward Heat 4 Shortlist Martin Vaculik > 7.5 > Bet365 One of the weaker heats, Jonsson and Lindgreen in gates 1 and 2 are readily opposable, and at 7.5 Vaculik cannot be overlooked. Recommended Bet 1pt Martin Vaculik Heat 6 Shortlist Krzysztof Kasprzak > 5 > Bet365 Recommended Bet None Heat 7 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 3 > Bet365 The two in gate 1 and 2 are very opposable here, and whilst it´s tight between Sayfutdinov and Woffinden, the price of Woffinden sways it. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 11 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 3 > Bet365 Woffinden has Darcy Ward in gate 1 to overcome in what on ability is almost a match. Again it is the price of Woffinden that sways it. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 12 Shortlist Krzysztof Kasprzak > 7 > Bet365 Emil Sayfutdinov > 2.7 > Betvictor Recommended Bet 1pt Emil Sayfutdinov ¼ pt Krzysztof Kasprzak Heat 13 Shortlist Niels Kristian Iversen > 4.5 > Betvictor Has Sayfutdinov to overcome in gate 1 but with Lindgren in gate 3 Iversen has every chance of a good run to the first bend, and at the price he has to be worth a bet. Recommended Bet 1pt Niels Krisitan Iversen Heat 14 Shortlist Darcy Ward > 3.5 > Bet365 Andzejs Lebedevs > 11 > Betvictor/Stan James Frustratingly the 4.5 Darcy Ward has disappeared, still represents value at 3.5 Recommended Bet 1pt Darcy Ward ¼ pt Andzejs Lebedevs Heat 15 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 2.5 > Ladbrokes Woffinden´s main threat comes from Hampel in gate 4, he should be able to hold him off and see off the his rivals in gate 1 and 2. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 16 Shortlist Andreas Jonsson > 5.5 > Betvictor Recommended Bet None Heat 17 Shortlist Krzysztof Kasprzak > 8 > Stan James Strong competition from gates 1 and 2 suggests we should err on the side of caution with no bet. Recommended Bet None Heat 18 Shortlist Emil Sayfutdinov > 2.8 > Bet365 As short as 1.8, not one of the strongest heats. Recommended Bet 1pt Emil Sayfutdinov Heat 20 Shortlist All except Hampel The model suggests that Hampel is worth opposing, I´d be more inclined to lay him on Betfair than to back him, for the purpose of the model though no bet will be recommended. Recommended Bet None.

    how to not make money on football

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: how to not make money on football The question is whether football can readily be boiled down to numbers, and if it can be, how long will it be before the market adjusts for this? Football is one sport where it pays to have a feel for the game, the more you watch it, and i mean in the flesh, watching a game on the telly doesn´t give you the same insight of a team´s worth, the more you watch it, the better your chances. I do think in football you need an opinion rather than a set of numbers, that said I do try to produce my own figures for football, but they try to work on the random nature of football rather than the predictability of form. Try looking for the teams you think have been overrated and who over the course of season will let their backers down enough times for you to make a profit, teams like Liverpool, though that might not last much longer, Leeds, Luton, Manchester United in Europe, Barcelona away in Europe. In other words teams who are overbet, that´s just one approach i´d consider. Look at another sport perhaps? But whatever you do, bet for fun and low stakes until you feel you are on the right path.

    Darts: BDO World Championship 2012

    in Darts Betting

    Posted

    Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 Scott Waite, I just think he lacks the bottle, he can play, but when it matters seems to lose his nerve. He went out very easily last year. This year he has to deal with the break up of his relationship this year, thats what I heard pre christmas, but if you see his mrs in the crowd they have obviously patched up. Dean Winstanley looks the man for the big occasion, can make the final whether he can go that bit further, there is a doubt.

    Bowls Super8 Series

    in Other Sports & Novelty Betting

    Posted

    Re: Bowls Super8 Series Just to add that each Monday and Tuesday there is a mini tournement featuring four players, the results are collated to form the Super8Series. Anyway today Billy Jackson won the remainding two group games and then went on to win the final. Oh bugger :lol

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