[Correct Score System]

Re: Correct Score System Scores Peterborough 2-3 Notts Co Rochdale 3-0 Huddersfield Newport 3-1 Forest Green. Just the one winner but at odds of 12/1. That was okay. 30 points staked Returns 43.29 Normally I'll look to have an over 2.5 bet if they are 2.0 or more. This isn't often the case. I'll get this weekends up early.

[Correct Score System]

I have a spreadsheet that predicts teh number of goals each team will score. I monitored this for a period last season and I believe from a small sample there might be some mileage in betting the games where the total goals is predicted to be 3.50 or over in correct scores. There were three qualifiers tonight, I couldn't get them online before the games kicked off but will bang them up now. I'm starting this week as I like 8 games to be played to give the calculation some depth. League 2 10pts split on following scores Peterborough 4-0 Notts Co Peterborough 3-1 Notts Co Peterborough 2-2 Notts Co League 2 10pts split on following scores Rochdale - Hudds 3-1, 2-2, 1-3 Conference 10pts split Newport - Forest Green 4-0, 3-1, 2-2

[Lay betting (Lawrence Taylor)]

Re: Lay betting (Lawrence Taylor)

@ YorkshireFootyFan, well no I wouldn't - BUT if he is getting say 100 followers paying £50 each - that is his bank of £5k sorted worry free. I think it costs around £50. @ A1ehouse, if there was a thread showing how to make £26k a year with 10 years of results then I gladly would

The past ten years of proofing are of questionable value, my figures suggest that the market efficiency has increased by a good deal over the last couple of seasons. My own method made good profits season after season (back tested) earlier this decade, now it makes modest profits or even a small loss. Past data gives no guarantees for the future. To achieve such results the system would have to have either magical qualities, or stake very highly and be vulnerable to a losing run. The way to make money on football is to find a strategy that gives low percentage returns on a high volume of turnover, I'd be surprised if this system uses such an approach as it just isn't 'sexy' when it comes to selling a system.

[Lay betting (Lawrence Taylor)]

Re: Lay betting (Lawrence Taylor)

Hi, has anybody purchased this "system" from top betting systems? I keep getting emails about it, and claims you can back test the results to make £26k a year - but IF its that good why are they / he selling it? I can't find any reviews of it on the net so just thought i'd ask. I haven't posted the link as I had it removed when asking about the football-bet-data site too but i'm sure some of you know what i'm talking about.

You've answered your own question - would you sell something that would bring you in 26k a year - I would but i'd want at least 50k for it, how much does it cost?

[Statistical Analysis of large data sample]

I've got a ratings technique, I've rated over 35000 games, although for the analysis i'm about to embark on I intend to use just 20000 of them which are for the Football League ie, The Championship, League 1 and League 2. The other 15000 cover the top divisions in England, Germany and Norway, but I don't think these divisions should be used for the modelling, I do think that the three leagues I'm using are broadly similar. So with a sample of 20000 ratings and the results for these games, what statistical approach should I use? I did plot them on a scatter graph and use the best fit line to produce prices for the 1x2 market - this was quite successful and if the recommendations were followed blindly, back testing suggests it would make anything from a small loss to moderate/reasonable profits each season. I have considered using Monte Carlo analysis to produce a 1x2 price for each rating increment, i'm not quite ready to do this, I will be in a day or two, I did mess about with it a little the other week though and again it seems promising. Does anyone think there are better methods I should consider using?