ovo.cosmico
-
Posts
31 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by ovo.cosmico
-
-
Re: O/U X.5 system - HELP needed Anyone??
-
Hi there, I need your help, if possible... I'm working on a system for O/U X.5. The system is based on statistics and will return figures like: 1-9 for O/U 1.5, average about 7; 1-7 for O/U 2.5, average about 5; and 1-3 for O/U 3.5, average about 1,5. At the end, the system will hopefully return something like this, for any single game: O/U 1.5 - 8 - OVER O/U 2.5 - 4 - NO BET O/U 3.5 - 2 - UNDER OR O/U 1.5 - 7 - OVER O/U 2.5 - 6 - OVER O/U 3.5 - 3 - OVER ETC. My question, I think purely maths is: Given the figures, which will be the best way to program the ratings intervals for OVER, NO BET, UNDER, to make the best of it. Examples: O/U 1.5 - 1,5>UNDER; 1,5-3 NO BET; 3
UNDER; 1,5-3 NO BET; 3 UNDER; 1,5-3 NO BET; 3 UNDER; 3,5-4,5 NO BET; 4,5 UNDER; 3-4 NO BET; 4 UNDER; 2,5-3 NO BET; 3 UNDER; 2,5-4,5 NO BET; 4,5 UNDER; 2-4 NO BET; 4 UNDER; 2,5-3,5 NO BET; 3,5 -
Re: Head-to Head Meetings jtw system rules! voted!!!:clap
-
Re: Betting for a living Fabulous thread and posts. Thank you mayfly :)
-
Re: Has anybody tried this as a strategy?
Datapunter couldn't agree more :clap Angeal sorry if I mislead you into believing that you can predict a goal... Don't bet what you can't afford to lose :cigarI'm sure there are a number of people that profit from this. They are the ones that manage to pick the most appropriate matches and by watching the match get a sense when a goal is likely to come. They then manage to apply a high, i repeat, high degree of discipline. Overall they come out with a profit. But for each one of them there will be 100 punters that can't make it work. They pick the wrong matches or misjudge the flow of the game or simply have a bad sense of timing or lose discipline and throw away all there profit in one single bad bet etc... Good luck. -
Re: Has anybody tried this as a strategy? Hi again, Actually the 0-0 odds are most of the time overvalued at the beggining of games, and the market tends to correct it at HT. They can start as high as 20 or more, but most of the times they will start beetween, lets say, 16 and 11. At HT, the CS will be around 4 in a match with goals, and around 6 in a match with no goals. If you pick the right game, watch the game live and try to be exposed for brief periods, to close your position before goals, you can make a nice profit with this kind of trading. We have a manual on how to do it, on a portuguese trading site that I belong to, and we have some traders with good results on this type of strategy. Anyway, to achieve a consistent profit you have to practice it for several months, to dominate the technique. The handicaps: it's important to have a trading software like geek's; the difficulty to find a live stream with no delay; the 8 seconds delay to place a live bet, imposed by betfair on football; the amount of time you have to spend watching games, particularly if you're nor very keen on football. OvO
-
Re: Has anybody tried this as a strategy? Hi, The method you're talking about is "scalping". The right way to do it is to consecutively back and lay, or lay and back the correct score, or other markets, following the odds. It is very important to avoid the goal and being exposed the least time possible, so you should do it watching the game live. Just search the net for "scalping"... OvO
-
Re: Tournement System Well, I think my strategy worked this way: Let's say the Barcelona tournment. Gimeno Traver odd to win is 340. I Would back it with €20. So I'm bound to profit €6,700 if he wins (well, he problably not). I call it insurance money. Then on the 1st round I would lay him for a profit. Let's say, odd of 3.0, €30 on it, €60 responsability. If he loses, €10 profit. If he wins i´ll carry on, but then it get's martingale, and that's why I gave it up. Lets see: 2nd round - odd 3 (let's be optimistic, but if he get's Nadal, the odd will be about 20 :rollin): 70 lay bet, 140 responsability, 10 profit. 3rd round - odd 3: 150 lay bet, 300 responsability, 10 profit. 4rd round - odd 3: 310 lay bet, 620 responsability, 10 profit. And so on. So much for the insurance money (and the odd 3.00 it's a mirage, it all depends on the draw). Problably this isn't even related to your post, but I will be grateful if you just give me some feedback. Cheers :)
-
Re: Draw no bet system :clap
-
Re: Tournement System Hi jamiedavies02, I tried something similar, some time ago, on tennis, just out of my head. I thought about it for some time and gave it a go, but I gave it up. Sorry, I just can't remember the details, I will post it as soon as I remember how I've done the whole deal, and why I gave it up. But maybe there's something to it I overlooked.:loon Cheers
-
Re: More Goals In Second Half
Thanks for the stats Kumquat Tree. Ten years WoW... Anyway, lately I had some good results trading this way. Wait for the score at HT, LTD, wait for the goool, and trade it up straight away. The good thing I notice is that, when you LTD at SP, if the underdog scores first your bound to lose some money. Trading this way the back odds will soar with any goal (well, probably not on Barcelona or Porto games:tongue2). So, on your opinion there's no punting edge on this, is it? Thanks again :okOk, I took the liberty to check a bit more than the last 5 days. Let's say a small sample of 37,782 matches in several European leagues over the last 10 years. 12,438 matches were 0-0 at HT, of which 8,881 had a 2nd half goal, that's 71.4%. 4,221 matches were 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, ... at HT, of which 3,107 had a 2nd half goal, that's 73.6%. 12,438 matches were 0-0 at HT, of which 5,229 ended in a draw, that's 42.0%. 4,221 matches were 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, ... at HT, of which 1,670 ended in a draw, that's 39.6%. So at first glance, we have HT draws other than 0-0, to produce a little more matches with 2nd goal halfs and therefore ending a littles less in a draw. -
Re: More Goals In Second Half Hi there, Maybe I can add something new to this discussion. We notice a trend at a trading forum I usually check: When a game ends 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, at half time, the probability of a goal the 2nd half is very high. Maybe it's a psychological thing... Let's check the last 5 days (Flashscore - european leagues only): 02/02 - 8 games apply - 5 of them had a goal on the 2nd half - 62,5%; 01/02 - 8/5 - 62,5% 31/01 - 1/1 - 100% 30/01 - 21/14 - 67% 29/01 - 23/18 - 78% We use this % data for the classic "Lay the draw". At half time, the draw odds will be around 2.0. You just wait for a goal, favourite or underdog, and the odd will go straight up. Well, maybe some of you will find a punting angle here. Cheers :D
-
Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Hi, usually I trade only on Betfair, not with the bookmakers... You lay and wait for the back odds to rise over and then trade. Or the other way around. Actually it's quit difficult to profit unless you know what you're doing, how the odds move during a game or a race. Maybee you should read a bit more about it and paper trade it for a while...;)
-
Re: The perfect martingale system Two things I can say right away because I tried the total goals market half a dozen times. 1 - Low liquidity on much games. 2 - The under/over odds are always a bit better. I think that the lay one or more goals it's the only advantage, because you can't find the over/under 0,5 on much games. ;)
-
Re: The perfect martingale system Hi there, Congratulations shadowvkc for the excellent system and thread. Had you ever thought of starting the system with a lay "over 1 goal" on the "total goals" market? Odds range 1,07 to 1,1 at the start of the game. Im trying to, based on stats, elaborate a spreadsheet to pinpoint favourable games to apply the system. The problem is to decide which stats to take into consideration and their weight on the formula. I thought of: Clean sheets (home & away); Failed to score (home & away); Average goals scored (home & away); Average goals conceded (home & away); Any ideas?:ok
-
Re: Football draws Hi Rick121212, I followed your thread :ok for some time and decided to do my own research on stats and odds, and some betting. Actually, I think that the system works. But I believe the profit is seasonal. For some weeks I had profit and then I started losing money, and gave it up, as the draws become more irregular and scarse. At the beggining of the season, teams play safe, don't want to lose points, so there are more draws. I believe that right now everything is still opened for the teams on the majority of leagues, so they do all they can to win the games. Not so many injuries yet, also. So less draws. Maybe in a few months, draw betting will be profitable again, as by then pretty much would be allready decided leaguewise.:hope Cheers
-
Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Hi Grex, I'm following your threads for some time now and I want to congratolate you on the very nice work your doing. :clap Concerning the Pinnacle odds, I just checked the BF laying odds, and you could have trade it out with profit on all games. Maybee I will have a go at it one of these days...:ok
-
Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Hi Grex, I'm following your threads for some time now and I want to congratolate you on the very nice work your doing. :clap Concerning the Pinnacle odds, I just checked the BF laying odds, and you could have trade it out with profit on all games. Maybee I will have a go at it one of these days...:ok
-
Re: Football draws Well done m8. Carry on the good work :cheers
-
Re: A dabble on the OVER's Cheers mate, U rule :clap
-
Re: 12X verses Correct Scores
Thanks. Very interesting' date=' particularly the stat on 2-3. I don't know much about Portuguese football but this conflicts with the impression that I'd got on the lower divisions in this country. I haven't got any stats but I thought that 2-2, 3-2, 2-3 and even 3-3 occurred quite regularly in divs 1 and 2. I'd even thought of covering those scores in singles on all 12 games in division 2 on a saturday. Low stakes, just for fun, but never got around to it.[/quote'] Hi, sorry to drop again on your thread, with this off topic prose. I would think that, on the long run, if you look at a league with 240 games a season, with a 2.5 goal average per game, the results wouldn't differ much from the one's I got. And, if afterwards you look at the previous seasons and there wasn't much difference on the %... I was surprised. 1-0 was ALWAYS tops, along with 0-0 and 1-1, with over 35% of the total scores, wich I think is a lot (and of course the houses know this). I thought of betting consistently on this 3 scores this season, but I don't have the odds at the time, which I would think would be the better part of the equation... The best I had for 2-3 was 3 in a season, 1.3%. I had two 0's, both on 3-3, 2008/09 and 2005/06 seasons. I'm new to this, but I would think it would be necessary something like 100/1 odds on this scores to find some value there. Cheers :ok -
Re: 12X verses Correct Scores Hi, If I may add something to this discussion, I made a study of the portuguese league (goal average per game 2.5) correct scores for the last 5 years, and I can say that last season, in 240 games only once there was a 2-3 final score. So it's definitely a score to avoid, I would think. It goes like this: 0-1 - 21 games - 8.8% 0-2 - 5 - 2.1% 1-2 - 17 - 7.1% 0-3 - 3 - 1.3% 1-3 - 7 - 2,9 2-3 - 1 - 0.4% These numbers where quite consistent for the previous seasons, with small oscilations. By the way, the last season' game/goal average for the premier was 2,77... :unsure
-
Re: A dabble on the OVER's pure magic:loon
-
Re: Head-to Head Meetings Hi there jtw1, I think this thread rules. Are you planning to update it frequently, like in a daily basis? or just sometimes, let's say weekends? Either way, thank you very much for your fantastic work :ok
O/U X.5 system - HELP needed
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: O/U X.5 system - HELP needed Thanks for your reply paparainbow. I'm afraid that when trying to describe math concepts my english just isn't good enough. I'll try to get a better description of what I need later on, and maybe you could help me then... thanks again :)