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Posts posted by homunculus

  1. On 11. 1. 2016, Fader said:

    draw is on Friday so the price may shorten. 

    2.5pts E/W M.Raonic to win the Australian Open 50/1 William Hill
    crazy price if you ask me. Raonic has just won the Brisbane event and only lost one set (a tie break to Dodig in Round 1) along the way he beat Tomic and then Federer in the final both in straight sets. He has looked in good form for a while now and will want to better his QF spot last year. This is his best surface and most likely if he is going to win anything so the 50/1 on offer is too good to turn down. Hoping for a nice draw.

    Well, anyone who watched the Raonic-Fedex match knows Fedex was ill and sweated as hell :-) I would not read much from this victory, though surely Milos showed some skills...

    Edit - I am going for Wawra to win the whole thing again @15.00 with my local bookie. Wawra seems to be fit, and that is my only concern. He always tries best in Grand Slams and is capable of winning the trophy against anyone. Certainly better choice than Nadal (lower odds but has no chance against Nole) or Fedex (the same) or Andy (the very same)

  2. Re: September 15 - September 21 Back Petra Martic to beat this Chinese youngster Wang @1.90 local bookie (7/10) Well, after the massivest choke of the galactical proportions that delivered this poor once-has-been-GrandSlam-Champion Samantha Stosur, the odds just must have started this way. Wang's turnaround from 2-6 1st set to the glorious victory 2-6 6-2 6-2 had to work. However - this Guangzhou is the very first Wang's appearance in the main WTA draw (has been ousted in qualies so far, but this year she got WC in Guangzhou). The young 20 yrs old Chinese must be oh-so happy by now! She defeated GS champion in her very first WTA main draw match! Well - Sam was poor. And given the fact that Martic is much more experienced WTA player and that Martic just defeated Sorana Cirstea by delivering very good serve profile (check it on MatchStat), I'd say that my money should go on Croat's side. GL.

  3. Re: August 11 - August 17 Back Lisicki to win at least a set vs A.Radwanska @2.0 local bookie (6/10) ARad was rather busy last week winning Montreal and it seems to me that she is showing signs of tiredness. Though her win against Nara 6-2 6-2 looks impresive, it includes saving 5 of 6 breakpoints. Poor Nara was way too inconsistent to take advantage. Sabine is hit and miss at times, but she is no pushower. H2H is 2-2, once Sabine losing in straights and last week in Montreal losing in three sets. I'd say that Sabine is in good form by now, and she is not going to collapse against tired Aga.

  4. Re: August 11 - August 17

    Back Lucie Safarova to beat Venus Williams for a 7/10 stake with Marathonbet @ 1,98 Venus has played a great tournament in Montreal where she lost in the final round against Radwanska. She has beaten good players like Kerber, her sister Serena and Suarez Navarro playing tough matches. So I think that today she will be tired.
    I was tempted to jump on this train, too, after watching Venus in the final against Aga, but then I checked Safarova's results in Cinci in past years. She lost in round 1 as moderate fav in straight sets both in 2012 (Shvedova) and 2013 (Mona Barthel). Moreover she is 0-4 H2H against Venus. So though I think Lucie should play better than the old Venus, I can't put my money on this one. I shall just sit and watch.
  5. Re: French Open 2014

    ... snip ... Sara Errani vs Andrea Petkovic over 20.5 games 4/5 paddy power over 2.5 sets 7/4 paddy power most people expect errani to win this but i dont think it will be easy as her opponent has done really well to get here and after a great win she will be full of confidence errani can vulnerable at times like in her previous match as she nearly lost the first set so her opponent will have to play well just to beat and i think she can ... snip ....
    Bro, this is not going to happen IMO. Petko was rather poor both against Mladenovic and Bertens. Only the fact that both were relatively young and unexperienced and started to pile UE's after having won the 1st set saved her. Petko adnmitted in the vs Bertens post-match interview that she suffered stomach problems. IMO there are healt issues there and you should also consider that Petko is pretty inconsistent palyer. Sara played final here last year and seems to be on fire this year. No chance for Petko. I'd expect Sara's win 6-2 6-4 at best. Personally, I am huge on Errani to win at 1.36 with my bookie.
  6. Re: French Open 2014 No pick to share for me yet, but I must say that 1) the FO Slamtracker is disaster - no way to return to "all matches" once you stepped into any particular match 2) their mobile app for some reason does not include breakpoints statistics. However, I noticed that they list TWICE the unforced errors row in the "afterset graphics" in TV, LOL.

  7. Re: May 12 - May 18 and yes, Rome final can't be avoided @RafaelNadal to bt @DjokerNole @ 1.75 local bookie (8/10) They both had weaker moments in Rome, but yesterday's semifinals have shown that Rafa is in better shape. Djoker lost too many points on his own serve against Raonic (who defeinitely can't be counted among world's best returners). This final it's Rafa's turn.

  8. Re: May 12 - May 18 one nice parlay today for me Zhang to win at least 4 games vs Serena Williams (@1.40) x Jankovic vs Radwanska over 19.5 games (@1.50) @2.10 total (6/10) Zhang is rather underrated in this match. True, Serena is unstoppable, but she also makes many errors. Zhang serves well, moves well, and did beat Kvitova that has style rather similar to Serena. JJ vs Radwanska is a no-brainer. They played 7 times and the number of games was never less than 20. Also going small for Chardy going to send Raonic packing @3.30 (2/10) all bets are with local bookie

  9. Re: May 12 - May 18 Melzer +4.5 games vs Murray @ 1.96 local bookie (7/10) That's kinda tailing Czech, but better price IMO. I do not expect Melzer to be totally beaten in any set, so basically 20 games should be enough for the bet to come through. I also tail Czech in Zhang to bt McHale. Zhang defeated Kvitova in an impressive way, cos Petra was far better here than she was in Madrid. McHale should be much easier.

  10. Re: May 12 - May 18

    It is strange that we can't find outright choice for Ana Ivanovic with Pinnacle. Same situation happened last week.
    After the spank from Halep and with the well known mental fragility of Anna the bookies do not give her much chances here. Personally, I shall consider to fade Anna from the very start.
  11. Re: May 12 - May 18 One for me after a longer pause: Back Li-Na to win WTA Rome @4.80 local bookie The reasoning of this bet becomes obvious after you look at the draw. The top 4 favs are Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, Li-Na and Simona Halep. It just happens that Serena, Maria and Simona are all in the top half of the draw, while Li-na resides in the bottom half. Jankovic, Kerber , Radwanska and Lisicki are the most dangerous opponents Li-Na can meet on heer way to the finals, and all are playable for Li-Na. As to the potential final oponent - Serena is probably going to withdraw again at some point - she regularly does this before Frencho Open, and it does not make logical sense for her to withdraw from Madrid and keep going in Rome two weeks before the Grand Slam. Masha and Simona are both playable for Li-Na, and I shall cover in the finals anyway.

  12. Re: March 17 - March 23 Kvitova to beat Sharapova @2.20 local bookie (7/10) Not an easy decision for me because I invariably fade Kvitova, but this time I really think Petra should prevail. Pova has weel known health issues with her shoulder, and I initially thought that she should be OK by now if she decided to come. But her performance against Nara and Flipkens that should be couple of levels below was plain shocker, and with Safarova that belongs just ONE level below was embarassing. Zillions of doublefaults and unforceds in all directions was what enabled the opponents to score pretty high number of breaks, and it was not untiul the decider where the qualities shone through. Petra plays really good tennis here, and she is getting better every match, IMO. She belongs to the same league with Maria, and they always fight tight on quicker surfaces. If Petra repeats her yesterday's performance against poor Ivanovic, Maria stands no chance whatsoever.

  13. Re: March 10 - March 16 Roger Federer to bt Novak Djokovic @2.53 local bookie (5/10) Probably most awaited match of the week, and the result is going to be Roger the champion. Roger appears to be playing in better comfort than Nole does. Perhaps this has something to do with Mirka being pregnant again (we all know that last time Mirka was pregnant Roger has won both French Open and Wimbledon :-) On the other hand, Nole has rather weak moments in every match here (except perhaps against weak players). He dropped set to Gonzalez, Cilic and Isner, but in what way! He was rebroken twice by Isner yesterday when serving for the match at 5-4 and later at 6-5 in the second set. That was rather poor performance, and Roger is going to punish it. He was able to defeat top-class Nole couple of weeks ago in Dubai, he is going to beat sub-par Nole today. GL.

  14. Re: March 10 - March 16 Isner +1.5 sets > Djokovic @2.39 local bookie (3/10) I would say that the "big name" factor influences the odds big time. Djoker is rightly the fav here, but from last 4 mutual matches, Isner took at least a set in three, and two of those 4 matches he even managed to win. And taking into account that Djoker dropped a set here not only to Cilic, but even to Gonzalez ranked 91, I just must play the juicy odds.

  15. Re: March 10 - March 16

    Radwanska vs Penneta ...[snip]... Pick: Radwansa 2-0 @2.38, William Hill
    Man, this is a trap IMO. Don't forget that Flavia defeated Aga just couple of days ago in Dubai (6-4 6-1), and though I regard this Aga's loss as kinda tank before IW, Flavia now knows she CAN do it. If you watched Aga vs Simona, you must have noticed that Simona looked tired at moments, and while there were flashes of brilliance in her game, she very often created an unforced error. That's the reason Aga won in straights. I'd say that all results are possible here, except perhaps Flavia steamrolling Aga in two easy sets. IMO Flavia can easily steal one set and even win. Be careful. Personally, I shall stay away prematch and perhaps try some break-bet inplay.
  16. Re: March 10 - March 16 A.Radwanska to bt Simona Halep @2.17 local bookie (5/10) This match is a matter of honour for both players. Bookies favour Simona, because she defeated Aga couple of weeks ago in Doha's semifinal. In that match Aga was break up in the 1st set and leading 5-2, but something happened then, Simona changed tactics, managed to place couple of superb dropshot winners and Aga collapsed. After Doha, both players took a break by dropping their opening matches in Dubai and both prepared for Indian Wells. They knew they can meet in the semis here again. The reason why I trust Aga more is the look upon their path to the semis. Simona had it rather easy - the only dangerous opponent was Safarova. Lucie had Simona on the ropes in the decider, but mentally collapsed. Bouchard is promising, but still inexperienced talent, and Nara and Dellacqua lack top quality. On the other hand, Aga sent packing super-top-quality opponents as Cornet and, most important, JJ. I'd say that Aga is now more ready to pull out strong weapons and that she get's her revenge.

  17. Re: March 10 - March 16 Dolgopolov to bt Raonic @2.22 local bookie (6/10) These two guys started at evens, and money appears to flow on Milos Raonic's side since then. But .. anyone who watched Milos vs Andy yesterday must agree that Andy simply collapsed (probably because of something went wrong with his back again). Milos is big server, but every time he gets into a rally, he is vulnerable. His forehand strikes yesterday were plain awful (some 50 UEs) and he even started to play shots backhand-wise once he realized that :-) In short - Dolgo should kill him in the rallies, that's for sure. And with Milos being still a little rusty here (this is his first tournament after AO), I can't resist the superb odds on Dolgo.

  18. Re: February 24 - March 2

    Back Tomas Berdych to beat Roger Federer for a 7/10 stake at 2.30 with Bet365 I'll be siding with the Czech in the Dubai finals. Yep, Federer was good against Djokovic, but his win was mainly about Djokovic playing really poor tennis after the first set. Berdych is in good nick at the moment and he beat Federer here last year, so I quite like the look of him at odds against. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/berdych-vs-federer-betting-tomas-berdych-looks-value-to-get-the-job-done-in-dubai
    Hmm, I watched it and I had no impression Djoker was playing poor. But there were moments when Federer just played absolutrely beast tennis that simply overpowered Djoker. I am definitely on Federer's side in this one, even more so because I watched Berdy against Kohlschreiber, and if any player played poor yesterday, It was Kohli from the end of the 1st set (5 games in a row for Berdy from *3-5 to 7-5 1-0*).
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