iroquois

good luck

Hello beautiful people!?
Let's try the kelly criterion system
Soocer betting
%estimation
Use of half kelly criterion (stake divided by two)
Initial bank 1000$
--------------------‐-----------------------------------
First bet:
 
Game: M. Utd vs leeds
Bet m.utd
% of winning=81%
Booker odds=1.50
Kelly stake=215$

No offence. My answer was bad too! Im not here to promote myself. Im here trying to find something useful to help the community. Fight the bookers is my objective. Not fighting my comrades! Have a nice day!

At least i try to develope things on my own. You copy and past the bets of other guy?...easy life and with time to criticize the effort of other people. You are here like a vampire! Begging to see others fail, are you working for the bookies? 
Get a life!

Draw day?
Lots of ties. Not a good day today. The model and the bookers were overwhelmed by ties?
Guimaraes was winning and tie
Osasuna was winning and tie
Real sociedad was winning and tie...
Barcelona gas a difficult game but won at last!
 

At least i try to develope things on my own. You copy and past the bets of other guy?...easy life and with time to criticize the effort of other people. You are here like a vampire! Begging to see others fail, are you working for the bookies? 
Get a life!

You are seeing things differently than I am. if the booker gives a probability of an event happening and so do I, that's all that matters. The model follows a theory of value. When the model says for example that team A has a 52% win and team B has a 48% chance. It's suggesting that it's going to be a balanced game, where any result can happen! Even the draw. It's up to the bettor to analyze the booker's odds and see where the value is! I don't care if the booker divides the percentages by the tie! what matters is that the model gives a 48% chance for mallorca and the booker pays 9.50! The booker says that the game will be unbalanced and that's why he pays Mallorca a lot and the model says it will be a balanced game where any result can happen. According to the winning % of both teams, in this game a draw is also a value bet. Since the model suggests a balanced game, with a high probability of succeeding and the booker pays 5.60! The richness of the model is in the interpretation and the existing value based on the odds offered by the bookmaker.

They are giving 7% as a chance of win. Im giving 26%. Those are winning chances, not draw!

Face or ass for tomorrow??
R. Sociedad Barcelona 1 3,40 Eyupspor Boluspor 1 1,80

Game % Odd Value Frederickstad start 88% 1,50 32,00% japs jaro 91% 1,57 42,87% plymouth sunderland 61% 1,95 18,95% port vale bristol r. 65% 2,30 49,50% sion basel 65% 1,61 4,65% dalkurk halmestad 76% 1,95 48,20% molde lillestrom 76% 1,50 14,00% odd viking 74% 1,61 19,14% napoli roma 65% 1,85 20,25% vikingur Fh 84% 1,67 40,28%

Game % Odd Value Federicia helsingor 86% 1,60 37,60% sturm graz rapid vienna 79% 1,71 35,09% At madrid espanol 71% 1,89 34,19% plezen ostrava 81% 1,90 53,90% sevilla R. madrid 61% 1,96 19,56% Sporting? benfica 79% 1,88 48,52%

Loser this week, Hearts winning the game but losing the cards match-up.
18-10 and 3 pushes for a 6.177 point profit so far with an ROI of +20.25%
 

You right. Lets give a chance to the system!
This is the situation so far
 
 
 

sheff utd reading   1 1,58 stoke bristol rovers   1 1,75 charlton morecambe   1 1,85 Portsmouth lincoln   1 1,73 exeter colchester   1 1,60 leyton Scnuthorpe   1 1,45 rennes monaco   1 2,15 eindhoven jong psv   1 1,73 trabzonspor karagumruk   1 1,52

sheff utd reading   1 1,58 stoke bristol rovers   1 1,75 charlton morecambe   1 1,85 Portsmouth lincoln   1 1,73 exeter colchester   1 1,60 leyton Scnuthorpe   1 1,45 rennes monaco   1 2,15 eindhoven jong psv   1 1,73 trabzonspor karagumruk   1 1,52

Here we goagain??
burton wigan   2 1,78 medea constantine   2 2,20

Here we goagain??
burton wigan   2 1,78 medea constantine   2 2,20

osnabruck verl   1 1,58 vojvodina proleter   1 1,57

nothing special really. I analyzed loads of games and found out what everyone knows. The best teams win more often, but that doesn't always happen. I took just one factor and tested and tested, until I found an interval where in fact the best teams win more often. nothing complex. all very simple...but nothing like the test in time to see to what extent there is or is not an edge on the bookers!

Today
osnabruck verl   1 1,58 vojvodina proleter   1 1,57

Profit=+20.40

nancy ac ajjacio   2 2,28 viktoria berlin magdeburg   2 1,50 verona genoa   1 1,89 ac milan bologna   1 1,38 jong ajax oss   1 1,53 jong az roda   2 1,75 jong utrecht breda   2 2,05 basaksehir malatyaspor   1 1,37 Profit=+8.20
Roi=+10.25%
 

Here we go...
day profit= +9.40 units
Finn harps vs shamrock rovers away win(1.77) ? -10.00
Vasco vs brasil pelotas  home win(1.61)? -10.00
Seté vs creteil home win(2.31)? +13.10
Concarneau vs bastia home win(2.11)? +11.10
Cabinteely vs galway away win(1.52)? +5.20

Second day and a jackpot!
Profit of the day =+210?
Nordsjaelland vs vejle 1(1.70)? +70?
Recoleta vs colchagua 1(1.70)? +70?
Njardvik vs hankar 1(1.70)? +70?
Well, the system performing like usually!