markus808

Long time no see my friends. Having great success lately with my EC picks, lots of value everywhere. From now on I'll be sharing my picks here.

Hungary vs Portugal 
This is a must win, must not lose game for both. These more often than not tend to be cagey affairs and likely draws. But odds suggest Portugal to win around 70% of the times? Let's look at some stats. Last time at Euro 2016 Portugal had 3 draws at group stage, one with Hungary. If we are only looking at 2021 matches for Portugal and Hungary and excluding games against microstates like Luxembourg, Andorra and San Marino. Portugal has won 2 and drawn 2, and Hungary has won 1 and drawn 2. So odds are definitely off and by a lot. Both teams are in good form, and only one loss between them in their last 10 games.   

I'm going for a draw @ 4.7 with Unibet 

Germany vs France
I know Germany is Germany and they play on their home soil, but they are big underdogs when you look at their form. Going for straight France win is a bit too much for me, even @ 2.7, because draws happen at group stages more often than odds suggest, and both teams are more than capable to score the equalizer, when they need to. Odds for draw are correct, and for me there is no value there. I think the 1x2 lines will change a little after we know Hungary vs Portugal results, so you may want to wait or bet before the result instead.

France AH +0 (draw no bet) @ 1.83 with Unibet is something I'm going to place a big and relatively risk free bet on.
Since I feel like I might be missing some value here I'm considering making another bet on 1x @ 1.44 with Unibet
I would usually back it up with correct score draw instead, but I have no idea, what would the most likely draw be, so staying away from CS market. 

Good luck!

EVERTON v SAINTS
Having watched most of the opening weekends games, two teams that will struggle are Southampton and Cardiff. Cardiff are just out of their league. All Kudos to Warnock, but they are going to get battered most match days. Southampton just look rubbish to me. I don't rate Mark Hughes and he will have them playing like Stoke pretty soon.
What is the saying "for a man who's only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" ! 
There is nothing going forward ... no pace, little skill, and absolutely no finesse. Is Danny Ings the answer? No way. If you had to combine the number of top players that left Saints in the last 5 seasons, you could field a pretty solid team.  At some stage this selling your best assets will catch up, and the greedy owners will spend time in the Championship.
I thought Richarlison had an amazing game for Everton. 2 goals on your debut is fantastico. I think he could be the buy of the season. That second goal was a gem, as he used the defender to obstruct the goalkeeper view. Clinical. Brilliant top goal of the week for me.
Everton were very good against the middle/bottom teams at home last season. Played 13 games, WON 10, 2 DRAW, 1 LOSS. Pretty decent numbers. OK the style of player under Allardyce was not so great but those numbers are brilliant.  To me the Everton package this year is just miles better. Where they have to improve is holding/beating the top teams at home (awful record last season). A few decent results will get the home fans up and pumped.
The home win at odds of 1.95 is a gift from the bookmakers 
 
BRIGHTON v MAN UNITED
I remain unconvinced that United will challenge this season. Last season the away record was decent, but also had some weird results. Brighton won this fixture last season, and Newcastle also beat Man U.
At 1.72 for the away win, is it worth a bet? Hmmmm , not sure here. One thing I see is a lack of 1st half goals away from Man United. Just 1 goal scored in 9 away games. Pretty poor, overly defensive, trying not to lose, is not the way to set up. 
Three bets that I would be looking at here are the HT draw, NO to both teams to score, and HT/FT (Draw/Man United). Brighton with 6 HT draws in their last 9 at home (league), while United cannot get the ball in the net 1st half away. I do not feel comfortable in this game, and would be betting smaller, and looking at longer odds type bets. 
Two things turn me off the Over 2.5 goals here. One, the machine learning prediction for over 2.5 goals is a little low. Two, Man United seem to down tools when going a goal or two up. There is no intensity to press for the 3rd goal. They will put it in neutral and try to hold on ...
 
A game to observe, and not get involved in.
 
CRYSTAL PALACE v LIVERPOOL
I thought Liverpool were excellent in their opener. Naby Keita had an outstanding game, and just slotted in so easily. Playing at Liverpool will be a perfect fit for him. On the flip side here, Pellegrini had his team set up just waaaay to open. You just cannot play in this manner, against top teams away, in the Premier League. 
What's amazing to me is how well Liverpool have coped without Phillipe Coutinho. It has been a case of Phillipe WHO?  They have not missed him at all. and he filled the coffers for them to make 2 or 3 great signings.
SO first game away for them, and typical Liverpool banana skin game. These are the teams that Liverpool have messed up against in the past. Palace have some bite and teeth. Zaha will be dangerous  but I think the signing of Max Meyer could be a master stroke. 22, pure quality, coming in from Schalke.
I'm looking forward to watching this game as it could be one of the best of the weekend. Can Liverpool avoid the slip up, or will Palace shock them?
 I think the odds for the home win of 6-1 are decent.
 

I'm looking at the offside markets and found these odds: Side with the most offsides 1.65 3.80 4.20. I think these are beautiful odds and should be taken. It's more of a coin flip in my book. Both sides hardly getting any offsides in the later stages: France 1 offside vs Croatia 3 in their last three games. I don't see either of them changing their winning ways and starting to put long balls forward or changing their formation.
I'm definitely putting some money on that market:
Side with the most offsides x @3.80 and 2 @4.20 with Unibet. 
Under 2.5 offsides @1.90 with Unibet

Some similar haphazard number crunching for the last 10 finals as posted already for the 3rd place game.
Only 3 games saw >2.5 goals, West Germany losing 3-1 to Italy in 1982 and 3-2 to Argentina in 1986 and France beating Brazil 3-0 in 1998. Those games aside we've had 3 goalless draws (including the last 2 finals), 1 game with a single goal and 3 with 2. Average total goals were 1.9 and the average goal rush make up on the spreads was 22.3.
5 games were drawn, including the last 3 finals. There were the 3 0-0s and 2 1-1s. Only 2 went to penalties, 3 being won in extra time.
BTTS landed in just 4 of the 10 games.
The record of the 7 teams who had an extra day's rest is 2-5 and those teams who were taken to extra time/pens in the semis went 1-3. 
Cards wise, the average bookings make up for the last 10 games was 51.5. Most recent first, the bookings totals have been 40, 90, 30, 20, 65, 40, 90, 60, 50 and 30.
Just 6 goals were scored in the first half (31.58%) and 13 in the 2nd (68.42%). The 1st half has been the highest scoring on 2 occasions, the 2nd half on 4 with 4 ties.
3 games saw a goal (or more) in both halves, there were 6 half time 0-0s with 2 games seeing 1 goal before the break and the other 2 seeing 2.
The halftime/full time results (from the perspective of the winning team) have been as follows:
Draw - Draw x4
Draw - Win x3
Win - Win x2
Win - Draw x1

Obviously an odd match and one that neither team particularly wants to play. I've just had a look back over the last 10 World Cup 3rd place play off games.
All 10 saw >2.5 goals, 6 went >3.5 and 3 went >4.5 (all 3 finishing with a 3-2 scoreline). Average total goals were 3.9 and the average goal rush make up on the spreads was 49.2.
Only one game was drawn, France beating Belgium 4-2 after extra time in 1986 after a 2-2 scoreline in 90 minutes.
BTTS landed in 8 of the 10 games, the exceptions being Holland beating a dispirited Brazil 3-0 in 2014 and Sweden beating Bulgaria 4-0 in 1994.
Of the 7 teams who had an extra day's rest following their semi final defeat, 3 won and 4 lost. Of the 3 that won, 2 also had the advantage of being hosts (Germany 2006 and Italy 1990). 2 hosts also lost with the benefit of an extra day's rest (Brazil 2014 and South Korea 2002). Obviously home advantage is irrelevant this year but, all in all, there's certainly no suggestion of an extra day's rest being of much benefit.
There were 4 games where just one of the teams had gone to extra time/penalties in their semi final with 2 losing and (the most recent) 2 winning.
Cards wise, the average bookings make up for the last 10 games was 32, rising to 46 for the last 5. Most recent first, the bookings totals have been 50, 40, 50, 30, 60, 20, 0, 10, 30 and 30.
Make of that what you will, I haven't looked at the available prices yet.

Godin and Caceres have been eating Mbappes for the morning for decades now, he is not fooling guys like them with his runs  Let's just say France has had easy games thus far. Belgium, on the other hand, has taken it easy although finding herself in tough situations. So tournament wise I see Belgium coming in better prepared having been tested two times already. I would rate them as equals so there is some value in Belgium for me. 
I find this statistic pretty alarming, it means that the French have been very lucky to get this far and they have been overperforming, I would expect the normal stats being around 60%.
So I have gone with Belgium to qualify @2 Belgium to win @3 and CS 1-1 @6.5 with Betfair
 

interesting stat for France, their last 6 shots on goal were all goals, 6 out of 6.
french media are saying how it shows that France is incredibly efficient, but you can look at it totally the opposite way, in their last 3 games they had only 6 shots on goal and a little bit of luck made them score all of them.
i personally wasnt impressed by France, it feels like they lack harmony and fluidity as a whole as a team as a group.
 

The South Americans are on a run of seven straight wins in all competitions, conceding just a single goal. The other interesting fact is that in all competitions, four of the last five clashes between the two sides have ended in 0-0

1-1 being new 0-0, I have gone with CS 1-1 @7.4 with Betfair (exchange) 

With some of the key defenders missing I'm expecting to see some late challenges and questionable plays, both teams have been involved in penalties before. Outright penalty market @2.4 offers no value so I've gone with: 
Sweden to score a penalty @9.0
Switzerland to score a penalty@ 8.5 with Betfair
Both teams to score a penalty @41 with Betfair

I have found some success in betting CS 1-1 and cashing out or waiting for it to last till extra time depending on what I see. I'm going to do that for today's games. Also, I have noticed that virtually no yellows are been given in the 16th final. Maybe the referees have been instructed to do so or maybe it's the VAR. There seems to be a lot of value in cards market. Take a closer look if interested. 

BRA vs MEX Under 3.5 cards @2.42 with betfair

Uruguay vs Portugal. Expecting a tight match, it's going to be a war of wills. Uruguay has only one yellow from the previous 3 games, whereas Portugal has many. When under pressure, for example, Portugal vs Iran or Portugal at Euro 2016, they get many yellows. Also, there is quite a big chance for the game to go to extra time, this means even more time to collect yellows. EDIT: Extra time usually does not count on yellow card market. So, given this, I found two bets which offer value:   
Team with the most cards Portugal @ 2.27
Portugal over 1.5 cards @1.43 

It was only a few of us, thinking that Croatia can steal the first place in the group from favorized Argentinians, but that’s exactly what happened. Argentina started slow, with only a point and missed penalty against Iceland, while hopes for the first place vanished in the match against Croatia, which finished with 3-0 in favor of Croats. Players of Argentina were under big pressure against Nigeria, where they succeeded, winning and qualifying with help of Croatia. Still, the winning goal came in last quarter of match from Rojo and even though Argentinians were playing with heart in this match, giving their best, I cannot help myself, but I cannot see the level of quality in the team. Bunch of individuals, which are once again set together in a strange way. I have to admit, that I have much bigger expectations when Sampaoli was announced as the new manager, but it seems that things simply aren’t really working as they should. Biglia isn’t 100% ready, Banega is playing, but as well isn’t fully fit, while veteran Mascherano is losing lots of balls in the midfield and if he will continue playing with so many mistakes, they will find themselves in horrible position against France, who possess some very quick players…
On the other hand, I have to say that France didn’t convince me either. Without doubts, most talented squad or let’s say with the biggest depth, but as said several times, in my opinion with an average coach pulling strings from the bench. They finished group on first place, without defeat but with some very bad performances. To be honest, their group wasn’t as tough as the group of Argentina. Plenty of big stars underperformed so far, but still… team looks pretty solid in defense, pretty solid in set-pieces and still with a very poisonable forward line, which can set up a chance from nothing.
Putting all pictures together, I see a difference between those two teams not just in quality, but also in mentality and especially in self-confidence. France with 7 points, securing 1st place without sweating for real and Argentina saving their World Cup in last 10 minutes of the last match in group stages… it simply cannot be the same. True, that Argentina has Leo Messi and if he will have his day, it’s very hard to stop him, but he will be covered by some of best defenders in the world, probably best defensive midfielder when it comes for defensive duties and I think that Leo won’t see an easy match today. On the other side, the offensive line of France will be covered with from what we were able to see until now, pretty weak, unstable defensive line and with all those reasons… I suggest taking France to win with odds around 2,50.

Uruguay vs Portugal is a really hard game to to find any kind of value, because teams are very predictable and the way they play does not vary a lot, outright markets and over under and markets have got it all right. But because of the predictability I see some value in taking some CS-s.

Uruguay v Portugal CS 1 - 1 @ 6.00 with betfair. Taking account to Portugal's 2016 World Cup progression, I see this score quite likely. Both teams are solid defensively, and making sure not to concede, while arguably having some of the the best goalscorers in the world playing against each other.This bet is pretty easy to trade in-game if I see it is not going to go my way from the beginning and one team is disintegrating before our eyes. Also it helps me to lay 0-0 which I don't believe is happening. 

I think the market may have over reacted on some things, for example Portugal under 2.5 team goals being 1.03 which is 97%, meaning 3+ goals happens almost NEVER, which I quite disagree with because never is such a bold statement.  

Taking account that we have VAR and great goalscorers in both teams I have gone smaller bets on CS 2-1 Uruguay @11, CS 2-1 Portugal @ 12 These are more for the testing purposes and there is no history to support these bets but I think we might see history changing

Uruguay vs Portugal is a really hard game to to find any kind of value, because teams are very predictable and the way they play does not vary a lot, outright markets and over under and markets have got it all right. But because of the predictability I see some value in taking some CS-s.

Uruguay v Portugal CS 1 - 1 @ 6.00 with betfair. Taking account to Portugal's 2016 World Cup progression, I see this score quite likely. Both teams are solid defensively, and making sure not to concede, while arguably having some of the the best goalscorers in the world playing against each other.This bet is pretty easy to trade in-game if I see it is not going to go my way from the beginning and one team is disintegrating before our eyes. Also it helps me to lay 0-0 which I don't believe is happening. 

I think the market may have over reacted on some things, for example Portugal under 2.5 team goals being 1.03 which is 97%, meaning 3+ goals happens almost NEVER, which I quite disagree with because never is such a bold statement.  

Taking account that we have VAR and great goalscorers in both teams I have gone smaller bets on CS 2-1 Uruguay @11, CS 2-1 Portugal @ 12 These are more for the testing purposes and there is no history to support these bets but I think we might see history changing

i was right germany initially. i guess they proved me right

Egypt at 4.25 with Unibet, I think it is such a perfect spot to extract some value. I've been looking for set-ups like this. Russia had a good game against a weak side and is now a big favourite to win. Egypt is much better side, played maturely even without Salah and last but not least It's a must win or they will be sent to packing.

Whatever the "real" odds might actually be I think they are much higher than current suggested 23.5% for Egypt to win. In my eyes Egypt are the favorites and I'm taking it all day. AH 0,25, 0.5 lines or just X2 should offer some value too if you are averse to variation or profits  

Egypt at 4.25 with Unibet, I think it is such a perfect spot to extract some value. I've been looking for set-ups like this. Russia had a good game against a weak side and is now a big favourite to win. Egypt is much better side, played maturely even without Salah and last but not least It's a must win or they will be sent to packing.

Whatever the "real" odds might actually be I think they are much higher than current suggested 23.5% for Egypt to win. In my eyes Egypt are the favorites and I'm taking it all day. AH 0,25, 0.5 lines or just X2 should offer some value too if you are averse to variation or profits  

Very happy! Congrats on your predictions, you were spot-on with your bets on this game!
It was nice to finally see a cohesive midfield on our team and I personally am glad to see Sergej Milinković-Savić put a solid performance and work well with Matić and Milivojević, being a very late addition to this squad (due to the issues with the former manager, unfortunately). It's been a long time since we've had a solid midfield lineup, and our defense seems solid as well, though not ideal. Overall, people here are very happy with our first performance, though most of us have been preparing for a much worse outcome, so there's also that. The biggest problem in my opinion (which I mentioned in my first post) still remains an issue, however - our striker isn't the brightest fish in the sea, and he needs plenty of chances to make one count, and there won't be plenty versus the much tougher Brazil and Swiss squads. For this reason, one of the guys behind him will need to step up and shine in those two games if we're to hope to get something out of them. Some of them definitely have the potential to do so, and it will definitely be interesting to see if they will.
However, that draw between Brazil and the Switzerland was a rain on our parade.
It all comes down to the Friday clash with Switzerland now which, from what we've seen so far, could be anyone's game, and will likely be a tight contest with only a few opportunities to make a difference.
I am undecided on what to bet on at the moment. However, for those interested in doing so, it is worth noting that this will be an emotional match for both sides. This is because of the well-known Kosovo dispute. As some of you may have noticed, plenty of players on the Swiss team were born in, or originate from Kosovo (and some from Albania), and will surely be extra motivated for this game. On the other hand, Kosovo is, obviously, a very emotional topic for the Serbs as well, so any good result in clashes versus any team related to Albania or Kosovo always counts as a double.
I am certain that this will be almost as big motivator for both sides as points and the prospects of advancing to the next round for those who snatch a win. The atmosphere in the stands could likely be heated and not short of provocation from both sides. We are likely to see plenty of Kosovo and some greater Albania flags among the Swiss fans (as was the case in quite a few events in the past, probably the most famous one being the drone incident in the Euro 2016 qualifiers). Serbs, on the other hand, will likely respond with some well-known chants, backed by the local Russian fans with whom we have brotherly relations.
Our first-choice striker Aleksandar Mitrović has a reputation for being hot-headed and being prone to doing something stupid out of nowhere, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he allows some attempts at provocation to get to his head. I haven't checked the odds yet, but having a small stake on a red card in this game might be a worthwhile consideration, with him being the first choice.
Other than that, I'll let the things settle some more before deciding on any serious bets on this game. I'm inclined towards a low-scoring game, but that could be risky if our team decides to risk and go all in instead of hoping for a result from a game vs Brazil, which I'm sure will try to step up their game in the next two fixtures. So, perhaps a goalless first half instead.
I'll post my picks at a later date, should I find anything worthwhile.

I went with CS England 1-0 (@5.5) and 2-0 (@6.5) with Betfair as it gives me somewhat better odds than England to win to nil or under 2.5. It is more of a fun bet based purely on a desired outcome because I have no idea how strong England really is but it's a must win for them if they want top the group, Southgate seems straightforward guy and I'm seeing them taking the points.

Peru v Denmark
 
2 sides in good form and have very good defensive records.
Going again the stats tho and going btts with Betfair @ 2.48
 
Think both sides will want to start well and w8n this game. 

Hello guys, here are my quick thoughts about the WC group stages... I totally forgot to do a c/p so some odds might be different till now.
Group A
For me personally, two biggest concerns/questions are if Salah will play and how much will home ground help to Russians. “Golden generation” of Uruguay will play one of their last if not the last World Cup as Suarez, Cavani, and Godin are 31/32 years old. With all experiences they have, I expect no surprise in the group, seeing Uruguay at the top without bigger difficulties. Therefore the future bet I suggest for this group is Uruguay to win the group. Odds on Pinnacle are currently set at 1,99. Second suggestion, but can be more or less used as a combo bet as odds are around 1,50 is Saudi Arabia to reach less than 1,5 points in the group.
 
Group B
Eyes in this group are completely on two teams from the Iberian Peninsula, but both other teams in the group have some decent players. I think that Morocco has a very decent squad with some exceptional individuals, but unluckily for them, they have two European “giants” in their group, and if both will play up to expectations, there should be no surprises. I was looking at Portugal to have more than 5,5 points in the group at odds around 2,00 on Pinnacle, but they are usually having some problems in group stages, so I think that there is no value on these odds. Another future bet in this group could be also that Iran won’t reach more than 1,5 points with odds around 1,85.
 
Group C
In this group, there should be no doubts about the winner as France is having one of the most talented squads on this World Cup. Still, a lot will depend on decisions of Deschamps who is still using Giroud as a number nine and due to his role, France plays much slower than they could, but well… On second place I see Denmark, who seems like a very decent team, while Australia is coming with one of poorest teams in their history and I cannot see them reaching anything. Peru is a team who can complicate things for everyone, but I think that Denmark is more tactically organized and therefore I see them at 2nd place. So my betting suggestion in this group is Denmark to qualify at 1,714 on Pinnacle, while other interesting is Australia to have less than 1,5 points in the group with odds around 1,90.
 
Group D
Argentina almost stayed without the World Cup as they booked their place on last matches. Can Messi carry them to finals? Can Messi reach something with the national team? We’ll have responses soon, but due to how much they depend on one player, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Croatia taking first place. The second place in this group will very possibly bring up the match against France, so I believe the both (Croatia and Argentina) will try to do their best to avoid the second position. Nigeria is a very special team, with a bunch of interesting players, but as I said earlier about Morocco, I think that they are simply in a tough group. They have their chances against Iceland, but I think that advantage in tactics – especially in case of Iceland, who plays very well organized, might cause Nigerians big problems. My betting suggestion in this group is Croatia to reach more than 4,5 points at odds around 1,80.
 
Group E
Personally, I think that Brazilians are the biggest favorites in this tournament, but the ball is rounded and everything can change very quickly in 90 minutes, so I don’t really like to talk about main favorites. Anyway, I cannot see any problems for them in this group, but their coach will need to keep players heads on the ground as the first knockout match could be very tricky. Costa Rica surprised the whole world on last World Cup, but this year I cannot see them repeating something similar this year. Even more, I expect them to be at the bottom of this group. Switzerland is always somewhere up, usually coming through group stages but leaving them as soon as possible and I see them surviving the group stage this time as well. Therefore my betting suggestion in this group is Switzerland to qualify with odds around 2,00 on Pinnacle.
 
Group F
National coach of Germany decided to leave Leroy Sane at home which really shocked me as Leroy, regardless of his age is one of the best wingers in the world. Still, they have a lot of same players as in 2016 and what is even more important, they are Germans, they have a winning mentality and they know how to play to win tournaments. As they will mix with Group E, where Brazil will most likely take first place, they will do everything to be in the first place in their group. Mexico looks the most serious contender for 2nd here. Sweden without Ibrahimović is a different team and even though some people are saying that it’s good for the nation because they play as a team, I do not agree with this, because Ibrahimović is still a leader and a player who can make a difference. I think that Swedens will need more time to be used to play without Zlatan. My betting suggestion in this group is Mexico to qualify with odds above 1,85 on Pinnacle.
 
Group G
Belgium with their golden generation might be the dark horse of this tournament. True that they will most likely cross with Brazil, but in my opinion, they are the team who can beat them. No one is taking England seriously anymore, but that can go only in their favor. There is no extreme pressure on the team of Southgate for who everyone is saying that it wouldn’t be a surprise of going home already after the group stage and even though I think that Tunisia can be a serious contender for second place, I think that discipline of England could be enough to survive the group stage. No one really speaks about Panama, who I think has no chance in this group. My betting suggestion for this group is Belgium to win with odds 1,751 on Pinnacle, while the other interesting bet is also Panama to reach less than 1,5 points with odds around 1,57.
 
Group H
That is the group without the main favorite in my opinion. Bookies are highly rating Colombia, but I have some strange feelings about their selection. True that their superstar Falcao is probably playing last World Cup, but both Poland and Senegal look very decent and could cook up some surprises here. Poland with Lewandowski in front and with some other very decent players could be even first in this group, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Senegal qualifying from this group. Japan is having a bunch of difficulties and currently having a pretty poor selection, so I see them at the bottom of this group. Japan under 3,5 points seems like a decent bet for me, but odds are pretty low (around 1,41). Firstly, I was looking at Poland to win the group, but as I smell that at least one of them – Colombia or Poland will be a flop, I decided to take Senegal to qualify with 2,11 on Pinnacle!

If anyone is interested in World Cup winner and group stage simulation models there is a good paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.03208.pdf (from page 20). Statistical models have been wildly successful before (Microsoft's model predicting Portugal win and unbeaten record two years ago for example) It has Spain winning at 17.8% (5.6) over 100k simulations. Betfair has it around 13% (7.40). There are more value to be had on who is reaching the group stages and correct finishing positions of a given group.
 

Germany always do this, Sajtion. They do rubbish in the pre-tournament friendlies, scramble through their group, and then slowly improve as the tournament goes on.

Ayoub el kaabi has 11 goals in 9 appearances for morocco. I don't know if he will start but is as big as 12/1 with b365 top morocco goalscorer so worth the risk imo.
 

I'm sorry i'm late but better late than never i suppose. Also i apologize for my English which is not the best. I'll try not to make too many errors.
Post will be a long one because i feel that everyone should have a clear picture about things in Serbian football. You guess is wright - I'm Serb.
I would like to start with our FA. More precisely with the FA President - Slavisa Kokeza. Kokeza was, as it is said in a mafia jargon, a tiny fish. He held a security agency and a brothel on the Serbian-Bosnian border. He was close to the notorious Serbian Radical Party who had an active role in the wars of the nineties. Their leader Vojislav Seselj was tried at the Hague war crimes tribunal for which he was sentenced to ten years in prison.
In 2008, this party organized a rally of support to another convicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic. Kokeza secured this gathering during which there was a conflict with the police. In riots, he was beaten by the police. I'll try to post the link with the picture from a press conference after the rally. Kokeza is at the right in the picture, in the middle is Tomislav Nikolic, former president of Serbia, and left Aleksandar Vucic, current president of Serbia.
https://www.danas.rs/sport/serdari-i-vojvode-ponovo-jasu/

Next year, Nikolic and Vucic split the Serbian Radical Party and form their own with which they won elections in 2012. Kokeza remains close to them and after 2012 begins his rise in Serbian football. I have to give you another note here and I will no longer be interested in politics. Although President Vucic in recent years, since he is in power, says that he has changed - in fact, he is not. He continues to reject any personal and responsibility of Serbian politics for wars from the past. An autocrat who has crushed all democratic freedoms in the country and institutions as well. This is important to know and understand because it is directly linked to Kokeza.

With the direct support of Vucic, Kokeza first becomes vice president of our biggest football club - Red Star from Belgrade. After a short period and after the protest of the fans, he resigned and left the club. It turned out to be in an even better position - president of Serbian FA. 
Our football federation is completely corrupt. All his bodies. Unfortunately, now I can not find one picture from a few years ago when the Steering Committee held. All members arrived at the headquarters of the federation accompanied by personal bodyguards, and each bodyguard was armed to the teeth as we have a saying in Serbia. (to the teeth it means fully)
It's a strange combination of politics, football agents and underground (mafia,mobsters if you prefer these phrases). Everyone has interests because in a poor country like Serbia, football has a lot of money and plenty of opportunities for enrichment. 
And president of the FA is almost like a Don,head of the footbal mafia and he is loyal only to the politicians who put him there.

President Kokeez's first move was somewhat unexpected. He proposed Slavoljub Muslin for the head couch of our national team. Muslin was once a very solid player of the Crvena Zvezda and Yugoslavia. As a professional player he played in France. Muslin began his coaching career at the club where he finished his playing career, Brest. He moved to Bordeaux in 1995. With a team that had great potential and players such as Bixente Lizarazu, Christophr Dugari and the future world champion Zidane, Muslin had good results in the UEFA Cup season 1995/96. securing a place in the 1/4 finals. However, he got fired in 1996 due to bad results in the championship, which means he did not lead the team in the 1/4 finals, where the Girondins won the Milan tie and came to the final in which they were defeated by Bayern Munich.
After Lans and Le Man he finally came back to Red Star,this time as head coach. His time in the Red Star was very successful. We won three titles and played well in Euro Cups.After a split with Crvena Zvezda (Red Star) he was coach of Lokeren in Belguim and several clubs from Eastern Europe. Last appotment he had was in Krasnodar i think.

He came to be head coach of natioanl tema in a tricky moment. Behind us was an unsuccessful campaign for the Euro 2016. The players were left without morale and without the support of the fans. Muslin decided to build a team from the ground. He completely changed the system and formation. As a Crvena Zvezda fan I knew exactly what I could expect from Muslin. 
Tough game,very well organised team and a discipline players. It was a footbal philosophy where only result counts and only points are important. 
We all knew that Serbia not going to play some attractive football,no "joga bonito".
Team started to play in 3-5-2 formation and and from the beginning it started to produce results. At the beginning of the qualification campaign, our most important player was Dusan Tadic, who himself participated in all goals of Serbia as a scorer or assistant.
Muslin decided to rely more on experienced players and younger ones to get a chance from the bench. Some of your may know. Serbia was the champion of the world in New Zealand in the U-20 and this generation had many talented players. But for coach only important thing was the team to qualify for Russia, not young players to develop through important matches. This kind of thinking was a correct one for the majority of fans but not for the some part of players agents. 
A special problem was created with Sergei Milinković-Savić and his agent, Mateja Kežman. Sergei is probably the most talented player of the younger generation and is already a star in Lazio. He's regular in the team and is one of the best players for which his price has risen and why he is on the radar of the biggest Europeans clubs. 
Coach Muslin did put him on the list for the beggining of the qualification, but he wanted to Sergej start from the bench. His intention was for him to be the first substitute and to be some kind of "secret weapon" against our rivals. Sergej refused this and started to demand place in starting 11 and a guaranteed minutes. The coach did not allow this and Sergej left the team saying,and i quote:"i will not play for Serbia untill Muslin is head coach".
And this raised a lot of dust in Serbia media's and this is going to become a excuse for all the attacks on Muslin which will follow.
Of course, Muslin did not care too much about this incident and continued to do the best he could. As a result, we qualifiled for the World Cup even though our team did not played some beatifull football,but it was an efficient one and probably the only way we could do it with this group of players.
So what went wrong then? As the qualifications came to an end, and as it became clear that we would succeed, those corrupt pieces in our football began to put pressure on Muslin and sought a way to get him out.
Muslin, in fact, was never the part of this story. He spent most of his coaching career in foreign countries, in countries of a different football culture. He has never become bound in such activities. He kept himself and his principles and did not want to give up to football criminals.
This football mafia saw the chance for big money. Because spot in the World Cup brings big money directly from FIFA. And then there are other possibilities. As an opportunity for managerial players to push themselves into the team and then sell for better contracts ..and coach Muslin was an opstical for this kind of activities. 
And that's why they had to get rid of him. And although Muslin achieved what he came for, he was sacked.With the pretext that the matches were unpredictable, we played bad football, that the fans wanted a more attractive game and the best players in the team. 
Of course - none of this happened accidentally, on the contrary. It was all part of the well-planned plan of Slavisa Kokeza.

Muslin went with dignity, and instead of him, his assistant Mladen Krstajic became new head coach.

Since this post is too long, I will now publish it. And in the next, I will explain the current situation within the team and why exactly I think that Serbia will experience another disappointing tournament.
The next post will not be this long, I promise.