thinkpink63

Sunderland vs Wycombe
The first game up for the previews in this reduced schedule weekend is League One's 2nd placed team Sunderland playing mid-table side Wycombe in a 3pm kick-off this Saturday at the Stadium of Light. I'm picking this match because it's a classic case where the home side should seal a business-like win.
Sunderland are experiencing somewhat of a return to stability under the stewardship of Jack Ross. The former St Mirren manager has overseen a huge number of changes at the club over the summer. 23 players departed the club and Ross essentially built the playing squad from scratch. It was a risk but it's paid off. The Black Cats are 2nd in the table with 35 points from 16 league games and just one defeat all season.
Wycombe are not doing too badly so far. A number of pundits tipped them to struggle this season but Gareth Ainsworth, also known as "Wild Thing", continues to defy the odds at the club he's been with for six years now. The Chairboys are in 15th place with 21 points from 17 league games meaning they are 6 points clear of the relegation zone.
This game sticks out for me for the simple reason that Sunderland are undefeated at home and Wycombe have really struggled on their travels with just one victory in their 8 away matches so far. I've no doubt that Ainsworth will have his players fighting until the end but the home team should have too much for the visitors. Wycombe have won 4 of their last 6 games and have only lost by more than 1 goal on the road once this season but I think this game will be a tough one for them.
Sunderland -1 @ 2.88 with SpreadEx
Sunderland HT/FT @ 2.70 with Ladbrokes
@Papa Lazarou, @freestylerx, @allyhibs, @iBetting, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @kulikTS, @golakeh1, @Unnamed, @willie82, @dogmeister, @TheEdge, @JJG, @allthethings, @Mindfulness, @the bastardian, @teddybear3011, @Marek76, @salmonman, @Unnamed, @mij0sim, @jazzman02, @Bobby Vegas, @Teodore, @Tiffy, @nenri981, @MangoTheThird, and @sajtion, are you guys going to put any bets down this weekend?

Challenger Pune qualification
Abhinav Sanjeev Shanmugam vs. Rio Noguchi
I wrote some words about Shanmugam couple of days ago, he is quite talented and has a dangerous game with a huge serve and aggressie ground game. Like his style. Noguchi on the other side is quite the opposite, more a defensive counterpuncher with low power and weak serve, his weapon is consistency and angles. This could be enough but i trust Shanmugam as this is some kind of a home tournament in India and i expect a good performance.
Abhinav Sanjeev Shanmugam @ 2.90 Tipbet 3/10

Thoughts about Djokovic v Cilic tonight?
The game is an absolute dead rubber: Djokovic has already won the group and will meet Anderson tomorrow, while Cilic is out.
At stake there is only money and 200 ATP points.
Now..Djokovic will play the semi tomorrow against an opponent who had the advantage of a rest day while he will have to play in consecutive days.
As Nole pointed out in a press conference he still has some cold issues like in Paris, and, if Cilic cares a bit about this game, there's a chance that Nole could take a "day off" to spare energies. Could..
Cilic is @ 5.50 to win and @ 9.00 to win 2-0 on Bet365.
Maybe the pride of the Serbian player will show up tonight too, but for sure to win the ATP Finals is more important than to win this game.
Finally Cilic won 2-1 the Queen's final and lost in 3 both in Cincinnati and Paris against Nole.
Some low stake on the above mentioned bets could be worth a go.

Andorra v Georgia
Andorra + 1 AH @ 2.35 Bet365
Taking a risk here on the hosts for a good value.
This game is a dead rubber, with Georgia already promoted and no relegation in group D.
Andorra are not mugs at home: in 2018 they had 3 draws at home against Cape Verde, UAE and Kazakhstan.
In 2017 they lost 0-2 in a WC qualifying game against a Portugal with Ronaldo.
With a lack of motivations from the visitors I fancy a decent game from Andorra, with the cover of one goal. Another draw (priced @ 4.60) wouldn't surprise me.

Andorra v Georgia
Andorra + 1 AH @ 2.35 Bet365
Taking a risk here on the hosts for a good value.
This game is a dead rubber, with Georgia already promoted and no relegation in group D.
Andorra are not mugs at home: in 2018 they had 3 draws at home against Cape Verde, UAE and Kazakhstan.
In 2017 they lost 0-2 in a WC qualifying game against a Portugal with Ronaldo.
With a lack of motivations from the visitors I fancy a decent game from Andorra, with the cover of one goal. Another draw (priced @ 4.60) wouldn't surprise me.

Andorra v Georgia
Andorra + 1 AH @ 2.35 Bet365
Taking a risk here on the hosts for a good value.
This game is a dead rubber, with Georgia already promoted and no relegation in group D.
Andorra are not mugs at home: in 2018 they had 3 draws at home against Cape Verde, UAE and Kazakhstan.
In 2017 they lost 0-2 in a WC qualifying game against a Portugal with Ronaldo.
With a lack of motivations from the visitors I fancy a decent game from Andorra, with the cover of one goal. Another draw (priced @ 4.60) wouldn't surprise me.

Andorra v Georgia
Andorra + 1 AH @ 2.35 Bet365
Taking a risk here on the hosts for a good value.
This game is a dead rubber, with Georgia already promoted and no relegation in group D.
Andorra are not mugs at home: in 2018 they had 3 draws at home against Cape Verde, UAE and Kazakhstan.
In 2017 they lost 0-2 in a WC qualifying game against a Portugal with Ronaldo.
With a lack of motivations from the visitors I fancy a decent game from Andorra, with the cover of one goal. Another draw (priced @ 4.60) wouldn't surprise me.

Results;   Southend 3-0, Notts County 4-2.   WON £18.67
Profit to date £166.23

Southend v Southampton U21 Over 1.5 goals  @1/5
Notts County v Doncaster Over 1.5 goals @2/9
£40 Double
 
 

As far as I know at most only two pro teams in the league Torquay and Woking.

Well, that I didn't know about, I was just going by how the dynamics of the match worked in the first set.

Yes, I think St Albans are a busted flush now. They didn't have the legs on Tuesday, and against full time sides who are fitter, playing on on heavy pitches, they will find it difficult.
 
 

I was big on them a couple of weeks ago and they drew with the bottom side Weston! As I mention above the league is very tight and I don't think there is much between the teams at all and most are capable of beating each other. Torquay have improved massively for Gary though. St Albans score a lot and concede a lot already been over 60 goals in their matches now and I would be a little surprised if they end up in the play-offs.

@Darran @StevieDay1983
As I have now moved to Devon, I went to watch my local side on Tuesday, Torquay (against St Albans). I have to say how refreshing it was to go to a good old fashioned game like this. . £12 to get in, we stood on the terrace, and had 2 pints with 2x burger & chips for £11. A pie and a pint at Brighton is £9! 
The atmosphere in the "Popside" was terrific, with most of the 1500 camped down the side terrace. I was suitably impressed with the Gulls, as they should be playing L2 at least playing like this. St Albans came into this match 4th in the league, with the best attack, but they looked anything like playoff contenders. Torquay had tons of pace and a creative midfield. If it was 8 or 9  to Torquay, no one would have argued. St Albans tired in the 2nd half, and Torquay took full advantage with wave after wave of attacks.
i'd feel confident backing them to win most weeks, and also scoring goals, especially if Jamie "Reeeedy" Reid is playing.
GJ is obviously loving it, and quite rightly milked the applause at the end. The fans love him, and there is a real feel good factor at the club at the moment.
Get on the Gulls this season is my motto!
 

Isner against Cilic was a good bet though value-wise.

I agree on Big John beating Cilic. Don't get such long odds.
He won last H2H this year in Miami in straight sets.Cilic could be distracted by the upcoming Davis Cup final and didn't impress me against Zverev.
Adding a double @ 3.05 Bet365
ATP Finals Bryan/Sock to beat Marach/Pavic @ 1.61
Challenger Buenos Aires Gianluigi Quinzi to beat Dimitar Kuzmanov @ 1.90
I give an edge to Bryan/Sock who won Wimbledon and US Open this season.
Quinzi is a clay specialist and won 2 challengers in spring, Rome and Mestre.
Actually he hasn't been brilliant in the second half of the season, and was surprised to see him playing here. Expected his season to be over. He went through a tough game against Bellucci, who has a career high of 21.
The one month break could have suited him and see him winning against Kuzmanov, who won lately a Future in Sardinia but never went past the second round in a Challenger this season.
 

@thinkpink63
Thanks for your update because i have not seen Paul . I only judge because of his results. I did not know is Hiltzik home tournament. I am also not impressed by Humbert recent results. So for me , that doesn't say much.

Hi and welcome to the tennis section @thinkpink63!

I wouldn't really say that Paul played badly before coming here. And it isn't correct that he lost in the first round in last 2 tournaments.
This month he won the Challenger in Charlottesville, beating the likes of Rubin, Karlovic, Klahn and Polansky, all with a much better ranking than him.
He then lost in the first round in Knoxville against Fratangelo, 90 places better ranked then him. And I would add that losing early in a tournament after winning the previous one the week earlier isn't so uncommon.
In the first round here in Champaign he went through Humbert, that is a top 100, with a quick 6-2 in the third set.
Hiltzik plays his "home tournament" and can be worth a low stake. But for sure not why Paul has not been playing well lately.
Good luck!

Not too many Non-League games this mid-week but a couple of matches have caught my eye from a betting point of view.
Hereford v Southport (National League North)
The knives are out for Marc Richards from the Hereford fans already. The fans weren't happy in the first place that he was the new manager and given they are yet to win under him they are getting angrier by the match. Opposing them on Saturday was a very profitable decision as FCUM ran out 3-1 winners having scored their goals in the space of 4 1st half minutes. They are now in the relegation zone and if Ricco doesn't turn it around soon then he will probably regret moving from Gloucester last month and taking up the role here. Usually I would want to oppose a team who are coming off the back of a big FA Cup win as Southport are doing, but there are strong signs that they are turning their season around. They put in a very impressive performance to win 4-1 against Kidderminster in their last league game and then followed that up with a 2-0 win against Boreham Wood on Saturday which was a good effort as Wood always make themselves hard to beat. I hope that those performances mean they now have the momentum and instead of being distracted by the Cup they use it as an incentive to start climbing the table especially as they face a team who are going to be under huge pressure in front of their own fans. At 89/50 with Marathon I think Southport are a decent bet.
Dartford v Oxford City (National League South)
After watching my 7th game of the season in this division on Saturday I feel strongly that their is little between the sides in this division this season and games are generally being won via small margins rather than teams being superior. That means taking short odds is going to generally be a bit of a risky proposition, however I am going to back Dartford here because I think there is a very strong case to do so. Dartford have only lost once in their last 7 games and are finally getting going after a slow start to the season. At home they have only lost once so far and given the tightness of the division they will be one of many teams eyeing up a play-off spot. They didn't have a game on Saturday so will have had extra rest ahead of this one which is something Oxford certainly didn't have. Fair play to City because I didn't think they would be in the hat for the 2nd Round draw, but they put in a hell of a performance to draw 3-3 with Tranmere on Saturday. That game is surely going to have left it's mark and it would be easy to think they will be having their minds on the replay which must have a high chance of being on TV. Prior to winning at Hampton last time out they had only picked up 1 away point all season and that came at Weston. The home side are basically even money with Marathon and for me there are very sound reasons to think that is too big.
Southport 2pts @ 89/50 with Marathon
Dartford 3pts @ 99/100 with Marathon

Results:  Oldham won 2-0, Cliftonville won 3-1.   WON £41.71
Profit to date:  £110.42

£40 Double   Oldham 4/7     -     Cliftonville @3/10   Monday
£40 Double   Workington @1/2 (v Newcastle Town)   -        Poole Town @2/7 (v Brentwood Town)      Tuesday

Sportsbook: Pinnacle
CH 2 Buenos Aires
Bastian Malla to beat Guido Andreozzi @4.17
Mario Viella Martinez to beat Carlos Berlocq @4.19
CH Kobe
Giancarlo Oliveira to beat Watanuki @3.43
ATP finals
John Isner to beat Cilic @ 2.86 
Alexander Zverev to beat Djokovic @ 5.33 
I expect 2 our 5 matches to win, with possibility of free roll situations on remaining matches. We should pick up some dead money.  

Isner vs Djokovic -3.50 (AH) @ 1.729 with Pinnacle 
Not much explanation. Last matches between each other are too old but it's Nole and the h2h just favors him. 

Fleetwood 3.49, Plymouth 5.37, Cheltenham 3.59
Decided against Bradford and they've taken the early lead.