fishy25
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Posts posted by fishy25
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Re: William Hill World Championships > December 18th - January 4th Anderson was handed this title by being the best player in the tournament, consistently averaging over a ton and being impeccable on his doubles? That is like saying Djokovic was lucky to win a grand slam by being the most consistent throughout the 2 weeks. If you want to compare darts to tennis I'd only be too happy to discuss, but to even suggest Anderson didn't deserve to win the title is ludacrious and in my opinion, not even up for debate.
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Re: William Hill World Championships > December 18th - January 4th Not sure I agree on either front with regard to Anderson and Bunting. You say Anderson plays well when it least matters, not sure you win the players championship, beating Lewis and Taylor on the way as well as winning the Premier League if that's the case. Or for that matter when he was almost down and out against Klaasen. To stay in the biggest event in darts is when it matters the most and he managed to pull it out of the bag. On the Bunting front, reaching the semis in the Grand Prix and the quarters at ally pally and the grand slam is a pretty good return in his first year on the circuit. You can't say he isn't a champion because he is a world champion regardless of the brand and you can't win the BDO without having something about you. He's a must for the premier league and I think he has the potential to win majors even whilst the likes of Taylor and Barney are around.
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Re: Burnley v Chelsea > Monday August 18th
The source (ESPN) has been linked earlier in the thread. Maybe they will come on later in the game' date=' but they won't start and also won't be fully fit. Even if they feature, I don't think Chelsea will be flowing just yet - just look at Arsenal, Liverpool and to a lesser degree Manchester City this weekend, they all won without playing to the level that their line-ups would suggest they could. A tough first-game for Chelsea this, I think Mourinho would gladly take a 1-0 and move on.[/quote'] Just to add my thoughts as a Chelsea fan. I was at the game on Wednesday against Real Sociedad and I don't imagine the side that started then will be much different to the one that starts tonight. Courtois will start in goal - he wouldn't have played the full 90 mins if he wasn't going to be the no.1 choice. Only possible changes that are likely are Luiz to possibly start at lb in place of Nathan Ake and perhaps Willian may come in for Schurrle and Cesc will play just behind Costa who looked lively at the Bridge on Wednesday (scored in the first minute). With regard to the World Cup players, Hazard will start, as will Ramires I presume, alongside Matic in a midfield pairing. Oscar will be on the bench, but not because of a lack of fitness, just the way Mourinho wants to set up I think. Not convinced we will steamroll Burnley, they should be up for this and the stadium will be rocking. Do think we will win though. Maybe a 1/2-0 win but think we will edge it. -
Re: County Championship 2014 Running short on time so quick write ups for me. Notts to beat Warwickshire- 10/11 Stan James- (4/10) Still not overly convinced about Warwickshire. Granted they were desperately unlucky to not get the win against Lancashire but that game could well have affected morale so it will be interesting to see how they bounce back. Notts haven't been exceptional this season, but their batting lineup is still formidable as anything and it's only a matter of time before Peter Siddle fires with the ball you feel so they deserve to be bigger favourites for this one on home soil. Derbyshire to beat Worcestershire- 11/10 Stan James- (4/10) Totally agree with Kev here. Derbyshire to me look one, if not the strongest championship side in the division. They have been scoring runs and taking wickets comfortably with Shiv Chanderpaul and Groenewald in particular starting the season fabulously. Worcestershire still are very heavily reliant on Ali and Mitchell with the bat whilst although they have Saeed Ajmal, it's his first game so there's certainly no guarantees he's going to blow any batsman away this early. Expect a Derbyshire win here. Hampshire to beat Surrey- 4/5 BetVictor- (4/10) I'm still not going anywhere near Surrey. I actually think they were pretty fortunate that the first day of their game against Essex was washed out otherwise I think they would have been struggling to bat on the last day. We've already seen this season how their batting can struggle after Glamorgan skittled them out and alot comes down to Smith to fire. Hampshire look a pretty strong outfit, with runs throughout their side and as Kev says, Kyle Abbott has been a good signing for them with the ball. Until Surrey put in a performance of note, I'm happy to go against them once more. Leicestershire to beat Glamorgan- 11/8 BetVictor- (4/10) After last week, there's no way I can resist opposing Glamorgan here. In truth, they were absolutely shocking against Gloucestershire. Nobody made any runs, and it's purely down to Michael Hogan that they escaped with a draw last week. Hogan is back in Australia for this one though as his wife is having a kid which is a huge blow for the Welsh side. He is the main man with the ball for them so it'll be interesting to see how they cope without him. Leicestershire are no world beaters, and they have injuries themselves with Sarwan and Thakor amongst others still out, but they have spoken about how important home form is to them so they will want to put that into practice this week. They come into this game full of confidence one would expect after a really good showing against Kent where they were on top and could have taken it but for the rain around. That should set them up for this one though and with Glamorgan's performance last week, Leicestershire could get into them and win this one.
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Re: April 21 - April 27 Super shouts on Kei and Rosol mate. Keeping my fingers crossed for tomorrow :hope
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Re: County Championship 2014 4 draws last week, albeit a little fortunate to come out of that round unscathed. Like a few this week but I'll kick off with just the one as I doubt this price will last. Essex to beat Gloucestershire- 8/11 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Going with Essex again as this price looks way too high on them in my opinion. They were a tad unlucky that their first day was rained off against Surrey as they were going okay in that one. They're sticking with the same side though and that can only be a good thing with Cook scoring runs for fun at the minute. What I really like about them is that they have a few individuals with both bat and ball who can make consistent contributions and as I say, with Cook at the top, that must give their side a huge boost given he hasn't been around much in recent seasons. Gloucestershire were all over Glamorgan in their last game in truth, and but for some late heroics by Michael Hogan with the bat in BOTH innings, Gloucestershire would have come away with that game with the win. Although they outplayed the Welsh side, I'd say it's probably 90% down to a poor showing from their opponents last week. Will Gidman had a really good game, but still with the bat, when up against a decent bowling attack like this Essex one, there's always a decent risk they could get skittled out in one of their innings in truth. They aren't helped this week with the news that David Payne is out injured as he is a big player in their bowling attack and even with him, I'd still have Essex as solid favourites so I have to have a play on the men from Chelmsford here.
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Re: County Championship 2014 Less said about last week the better, few horrible performances in there. Let's hope for better this week... Lancashire to beat Warwickshire- 6/5 Bet365- (4/10) Both sides have had their fair share of off field problems this week with Jonathan Trott ruling himself out of cricket for a while and Peter Moores taking over England again so both teams haven't had the ideal preparation going into this one. Based on last week's performances though, I'd have Lancashire as favourites going into this one. The return of Glen Chapple is huge for the Red Roses as he has been their best bowler by far in the past few years. He'll back up Jimmy Anderson well and they should cause problems to Warwickshire's batting lineup. As mentioned, there's no Jonathan Trott, and Rikki Clarke is missing as well so a huge effort is required from Ian Bell like last week you feel if the home side are to put up some decent runs in this one. Lancashire have runs in them and if their quality bowlers can get rid of Ian Bell early, I fear for Warwickshire here. Derbyshire to beat Hampshire- 6/5 Bet365- (4/10) I'm still not totally convinced by Hampshire in all honesty. Although they got past Gloucestershire last week, at times they must have been biting their nails a bit which doesn't bode well for me to be honest. On paper, their side looks extremely strong with international talent throughout the side, but recent performances have suggested to me that something isn't completely right. Derbyshire put up a monumental effort against Essex and if it wasn't for a big innings from Alastair Cook in the second innings, they would have won that game even after not making the runs they would have liked in the first innings. Tim Groenewald has started the season on fire with the ball, and Shiv Chanderpaul looked as solid as ever against Essex. Add in the likes of Moore and Madsen at the top of the order who can score well, and Tony Palladino back in the side, I think Derbyshire look a solid bet at odds against. Glamorgan to beat Gloucestershire- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10) The Welsh side look a more balanced side to me and have more match winners in their ranks. They've already managed to beat Surrey which shows they are no mugs and in Wagg and Hogan, they have an attack which has really fired in the early stages this season. Batting wise they are vastly experienced with Wallace, Rudolph, Goodwin and Allenby in the middle order whilst their openers can make healthy contribution as well. Gloucestershire have Ian Saxelby back for this one which is a boost but their batting looks rather thin to me, especially if Hogan and Wagg make the most of the new ball as they usually do. Gloucestershire haven't won in Cardiff for a long while, and I don't expect that trend to be broken over the weekend and early next week. Essex to beat Surrey- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (4/10) I'll try my luck with Essex again for the second week running as they did have their impressive moments in that win over Derbyshire. Alastair Cook is still available and fresh off that century against Derbyshire, he'll look to go well again. I think what was more important for them though was that David Masters and Tymal Mills were amongst the wickets which is a really good sign for them, as when out together with Napier and Panesar, you have a really strong looking bowling attack. Surrey looked to be on top against Glamorgan in their first game, but then were rattled out for 81 which shows the inconsistencies and inexperience in their batting, Graham Smith aside. Far too much relies on the South African in my opinion, whilst their bowling is still a weakness for me as Kev alluded to, I'm not convinced they quite know their best XI yet. Essex should be on a high so I'll back them to deliver the goods once again.
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Re: County Championship 2014 Good shout on Sussex bud, Middlesex were never really in it after Prior came to the crease. With Glamorgan doing the job comfortably, and Anderson taking the wicket bet (Adams didn't play so that was voided), I'm on +7 going into the second round of fixtures. Again I'm completely with Kev this week, with a couple of further additions. BTW that Borthwick price is down as short as 4/1 now so that looks a steal currently. :ok Nottinghamshire to beat Middlesex- 4/5 Stan James- (5/10) Notts 1st Innings Lead- 10/11 Stan James- (4/10) I was expecting Notts to be a much shorter price this week so I was pleasantly surprised to get them around the 1.80 mark. They are a team very much in the reckoning for the title with the only slight concern the future of Mick Newell with regard to the England job. He's there at the minute though so that's not a factor, and when you look at their side on paper, it really does look a strong one. They had far too much for Lancashire last week, and they are strengthened by the fact that Peter Siddle and James Taylor, two players who would get into any side, are available to play in this one. Middlesex were in truth blown away by Matt Prior last week and didn't get a sniff after he came to the crease, but their batting was really poor in both innings, and you feel if Notts can get rid of Chris Rogers early enough, then the rest of the batting lineup is pretty much their to be attacked. Notts' batting stars are probably the best in the country, and with Siddle around to bolster the bowling this week, they look a good bet to me get their second win and also lead the runs after both sides have batted. Yorkshire to beat Somerset- 4/5 Stan James- (4/10) The bowling is a huge worry for me here with Somerset. When you look at the squad, you really think to yourself have they got 20 wickets in them and I'm inclined until I see otherwise to say no to that at the minute. Batting they do have some quality players even without Jos Buttler who has signed for Lancashire, but there's really nothing in the bowling department to worry Yorkshire I feel. Even though they are without Root, Bairstow and Bresnan, Yorkshire have a far more balanced look to them. They've got runs in Williamson, Gale, Ballance amongst others and unlike Somerset, they have the bowlers to back it all up. Sidebottom, Brooks and Plunkett are all dangerous with the new ball and they have decent spin options as well so they just look the far more likely to pick up a win here. Warwickshire to beat Sussex- 8/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) I'm going to go against Sussex again for the second week running but this time in the shape of Warwickshire. I know Sussex easily beat Middlesex, but a large part of that was down to Matt Prior and Middlesex's batting weaknesses. However for this one, they are without Prior who's nursing an achilles problem, whilst the home side have runs throughout their team. Ian Bell captains the side, whilst Trott, Chopra, Evans and Clarke are also playing so there's plenty of runs you feel in them. Sussex are boosted by Chris Jordan for this one, but I do feel the Sussex bowlers will struggle far more than they did last week. In Barker, Wright and Woakes, the hosts are no mugs with the ball either, and we've seen how effective Jeetan Patel has been in recent seasons so it's a home win for me to make amends for Middlesex's failures with the bat. Kent to beat Worcestershire- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Worcestershire impressed me against Hampshire but you have to say but for that superb knock from Mitchell, the scorecard probably would have looked a lot different. Kev has summed in up perfectly, if Kent knock over Ali and the captain early, you struggle to see where the rest of the runs will come from in truth. Saeed Ajmal was expected to play today but there's been a hold up there which hasn't done them any favours whilst Kent have Bollinger around for them so two bits of bad news for Worcester here and I expect Kent to take the points. Essex to beat Derbyshire- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (4/10) I'm not a massive fan of backing Essex regardless in the Championship but I'm going to risk them here. On Paper, their side looks a competitive one in division 1 let alone the second tier. All of their England players are available, so in Cook and Bopara they have runs, with the likes of Mickleburgh, Westley, Smith and Foster to contribute whilst they have a strong seam attack and it's good news for them that Graham Napier was firing in the warm up game. To be fair Derbyshire have a good look to their side as well but I still feel a lot of the runs, a bit like Worcestershire, are only going to come form predominantly two sources; Madsen and Chanderpaul. If they both struggle in their opening game, I make Essex bit favourites given their strong batting lineup for this one. Again same with the batting, a lot comes down to Tim Groenewald in taking wickets so with Derbyshire heavily relying on a few key players, whereas Essex have a few more options, I think they are the more likely in this one.
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Re: County Championship 2014 GL with those mate. I'm agreeing on Glamorgan, opposing Sussex though. Middlesex to beat Sussex- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (4/10) I think it's a huge boost having Stephen Finn available for the game and he'll have a massive point to prove this season given how he's fallen down in the pecking order in the England setup. Along with Roland-Jones and James Harris, Middlesex have an abundance of seam quality amongst their ranks and whilst you'd say their batting is their weaker field, the likes of Robson, Denly, Rodgers and Morgan can score heavily so they look a decent side on paper. Sussex are without a few of their big names for this one, including Chris Jordan who has been superb for them in the past couple of seasons. Chris Nash and Luke Wright are also missing, whilst Matt Prior is carrying a niggle so I'm not sure how fit he will be to bat anyway. With the quality of Middlesex's bowling attack, I think that gives them an advantage in this one to be honest so I'm happy to back them at odds against. Glamorgan to beat Surrey- 2/1 Bet365- (3/10) Yeah I'm happy to oppose Surrey for the first game of the season as well. Surrey have had all sorts of problems in the past few years where at one time they had the most promising side in the country but with what's gone on in the past few years, their side looks very different. Graeme Smith will need to score tons of runs this season as the rest of their batting lineup looks very hit or miss and the amount of youngsters who will be under pressure worries me a touch. Glamorgan are not world beaters but they do have some quality players on their books. They have some good bowling options, none other than Michael Hogan who can cause any batsman in the country problems, whilst as Kev says, their batting has a decent amount of depth as well so I'll have a little play at Glamorgan at a decent price here. Not sure Stan James have done these bets before for individual matches but one has caught my eye... James Anderson Top 1st Innings Bowler- 10/3 Stan James- (1.5/10) Andre Adams Top 1st Innings Bowler- 7/2 Stan James- (1.5/10) Well I've taken a bet on both of these guys as I don't see how either of them won't win this little market. When you consider only these two above, Harry Gurney, Glen Chapple, Luke Fletcher and Kyle Hogg count in this market, I'm astonished by the prices on Anderson and Adams. When you consider how Kyle Hogg and Glen Chapple aren't even in the squad to play for Lancashire it's only Gurney or Fletcher who can spoil the bets. Both are decent bowlers but Anderson and Adams in truth are a few levels above them so it's only one of the above who can win top the market I think.
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Re: County Championship 2014 Top work as ever mate! Will look to contribute to the cricket threads as I've been massively absent as of late. :ok
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Re: ICC World T20 2014 Fortunate that the rain came down there for you mate. Just had a massive go at William Hill myself. I had the 'Under's on boundaries and sixes which were nailed on winners until the skies opened and floodlights failed. The boundaries could not have lost even if Ireland hit 4 sixes at the end yet my bets were still voided because more than 3 overs were lost. Just said to them that it is completely laughable that if a team scored 10 runs in an innings, and someone had a bet of 'Under 35.5 Boundaries' and then it poured down during the interval that under their rules, the bets would still be voided. Basically said they should sack whoever came up with that rule :lol. Feel a bit sorry for the customer service guy actually considering he was pretty helpful, but needed to take out some frustration. GL for the rest of the tournament though bud. :ok
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Re: October 21 - October 27
He only had 2 break points in that second set :lol. I need a new dictionary apparently.Well done Kev! 2nd set. umpteen amount of breaks points. Holds every game without so much as a break point and then the tie-break he loses 7-5. I mean WTF!? Tursunov wins the handicap though. Least someone has some professionalism. Choke! you watch Kev win 3rd set now easy as you like. Only wins when he needs to pff. Rant over. -
Re: US Open 2013 Just going to add my insight into the final tonight. Haven't had the time to post really but have found an open window tonight. I've gone in fairly heavily on a Williams win. Taken the same 2 bets as Czech, as well as a 2-0 Williams win as well with Sportingbet - very generous odds offered there indeed. The natural argument is the recent H2H, and to be honest, that's the only thing in Azarenka's favour here. A couple of wins on the hard courts this season against the American, including over in Cincinnati a couple of weeks back, but if we're really focusing in on the match up, it really doesn't look good for Azarenka. Her previous 2 matches may look comfortable (straight set wins over Hantuchova and Pennetta), but the performances of Azarenka were shocking. Her serve is ridiculously vulnerable right now. If it wasn't for Hantuchova and Pennetta struggling on their own serve, the final would be completely different. Double faults galore as she seems to have inherited Sharapova's serving motion ( i.e serving in a table tennis fashion by trying to hit the ball on her own side of the court before her opponents). As we all know, if there's one thing you can't afford to do against Serena it's drop serve on numerous occasions as Serena could ace some of the guys on the men's side. You will very rarely see Serena drop serve more than 3 times in a match, and that's when she isn't firing on all cylinders. So far in the tournament however, the American has dropped just the 16 games in her matches and she should be fully motivated for this one considering 12 months ago, Azarenka very nearly beat her at this stage. As I've said, looking at the H2H, Azarenka hasn't done badly against Serena. It may be 13-3 in the American's favour, but Azarenka has taken more sets off Williams than most but right now, I really fear for her. She was astonishingly poor in her semi, and really fortunate. If she doesn't improve about 300% at least, I don't see where she's troubling her opponent today. Her serve just isn't what it should be at the minute, and I think it's hard to comprehend anything other than a Williams win here, and it might actually be a tad embarrassing and sad to watch Azarenka tonight. That would be the case if she kept her mouth shut when playing but as it is, I think I'll enjoy Williams hopefully celebrating tonight.
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Re: Friends Life T20 2013 Gone for Hampshire in the same market to be honest. Still at 5/6 with Stan James which is a lot higher than most firms have it. Granted Tanvir is out, but Tredwell is struggling for fitness with an ankle problem I think it is, whilst Philander has gone round the park a bit so far in the tournament. Hampshire as always have the likes of Mascarenhas and Briggs who are always hard to get away and with Carberry in the form he's in, I'd side with Hampshire personally. :ok
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Re: Wimbledon 2013 Will add my insight into the first day of the tournament. Kyle Edmund vs Jerzy Janowicz- Tie Break in Match- 10/11 Coral- (4/10) Took this last night and the price has dropped but it's still a lot higher than it should be really. Janowicz possesses the big serve, whilst on return he's nothing special and getting beat by a guy ranked outside the top 200 in Halle is far from ideal preparation. Edmund will have the support behind him and he looks to cope with the pressure pretty well from what I've seen of him so far. Both have played a number of breakers recently and I expect one to occur at some point today. Tobias Kamke vs Julien Benneteau- Over 38.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) These two met just a few weeks ago in Paris where they played out a 5 set marathon match, and in fact, 3 of their 4 meeting have gone the distance which leads me to think they will play out another close fought encounter today. Both are pretty solid so there's not too much between the two in actual fact so this one should have some legs on it and the overs looks pretty decent. Radek Stepanek vs Matt Reid- Over 36.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) Line looks on the low side to me. I know the Aussie is ranked far lower of the two but he's worked incredibly hard to make the first round here, coming through some grueling qualifiers where he beat the likes of Devvarman and Smyczek who are decent enough players which should see him be right up for this game given the hard work. Stepanek is in decent form himself, but can be prone to some lapses in concentration which should give Reid chances. I just expect Reid to really battle today and if he pinches a set, the line should be fine. Fabio Fognini (-4.5 games) vs Jurgen Melzer- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) This one could be a nightmare game to bet on considering both players nature here but no way can I be backing Melzer at the minute. I know he leads the H2H 2-0, but his form is non existent and lacks confidence at the minute. He only just about came through against Riccardo Ghedin in Halle before Gasquet creamed him completely. Although this isn't Fog's best surface, he got a couple of wins under his belt in Eastbourne and he beat the likes of Tomic and Llodra 12 months ago on the grass circuit so he can play. The Italian's form is far better and I expect him to come through this one. Adrian Ungur vs Benoit Paire- Over 30.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (3/10) I don't know why this line is so low but I'm happy to go against Paire here. Despite his talent, he is still wildly inconsistent and although I expect him to be find, he retired against Llodra in his last match so there may be some worries on his mind. Ungur doesn't really venture much off the clay but he should have enough about him to not let Paire hit him off the court. Even if he fails to take a set, a couple of really close ones will see the line through anyway but there's no way I can have Paire this much of a favourite. Dustin Brown (+4.5 games) vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez- 4/5 Stan James- (3/10) Brown is probably my favourite player to watch on the grass given his unorthodox style but he should cause problems to GGL. He hasn't done thus far on clay in their two meetings, but his big serve and net game should fare far better on the grass, so Garcia-Lopez will have to deal with it. If Brown continues to serve well, the Spaniard's mental state may just hamper him and he could well get frustrated. I don't expect the Spaniard to have this one all his own way like the previous 2 meetings so I'll back the German Jamaican to go well today. Mikhail Youzhny (-6.5 games) vs Robin Haase- 9/10 Stan James- (3/10) The Russian has won in straight sets everytime the two have played one another, and on grass Youzhny is far the better player. He made the final in Halle where he lost to Federer in 3 in the final, but he beat the likes of Nishikori, Kohlschreiber and Gasquet all pretty comfortably so he'll be high in confidence in a tournament where he has points to defend. Haase never convinces me whenever I see him play these days and on a grass court, I find it hard to make a case for him against Youzhny. Nicolas Almagro (-8.5 games) vs Jurgen Zopp- Evens Stan James- (3/10) Perfect draw for the Spaniard here. Zopp has only played 3 matches this season as he's had injury worries so he'll be here just to pick up the prize money you feel. In the last 2 games he's played, Robredo and Stebe have hammered him which shows where his tennis is at right now. Almagro hasn't played on grass yet this season, but this is a welcome opener for him. He may be finding his feet early one, but one of these sets should be really comfortably for him so the handicap looks decent on the Spaniard. Steve Darcis (+8.5 games) vs Rafael Nadal- 11/10 Stan James- (3/10) Think it's worth opposing Nadal in the first round here as he hasn't played on grass yet this season so he may take a game or so to adjust to conditions. Darcis is decent enough on the grass and actually beat Berdych at the Olympics last season and kept Wawrinka close last week so he should be okay to keep it close enough to Nadal here in the Spaniard's first game back on grass since that shock defeat to Rosol 12 months ago. Marcos Baghdatis vs Marin Cilic- Over 36.5 games- 4/5 Stan James- (3/10) Big contrast in form with these two but I still wouldn't be backing Cilic in the slams. Baghdatis even out of form is a dangerous player on the grass and usually raises his game for the slams whilst Cilic is still way too inconsistent for my liking. Could go all the way in my opinion but I think 4 sets is the minimum we will get so overs for me. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs David Goffin- Over 31.5 games- 10/11 Stan James- (3/10) There's been talk that the Frenchman has been struggling with a bit of illness so he might not be 100% for this one. Even if he was, he wasn't completely firing at Queen's anyway, dropping sets to Sijsling and Roger-Vasselin so Goffin should be able to go well today. He's pretty good on the grass as he showed 12 months ago where he made the third round here. He's lost his last 5 matches but we saw in Paris what he can do against the top players as he fought Djokovic so think he'll keep this close enough to cover the overs. Tommy Robredo vs Alex Bogomolov- Over 37.5 games- 9/10 Stan James- (3/10) I know on paper Robredo should win this comfortably as Bogomolov hasn't done anything of note for a good while but on grass, I actually think he could trouble Robredo. The Spaniard will just hang about in the rallies but doesn't possess a great deal of power which Bogomolov does to an extent so there could be some mileage in this one. In times gone by, Robredo has been a huge favourite but then been involved in some marathons in London so I think this could have some legs on it.
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Re: June 10 - June 16 Poor day for me yesterday, emphasized by Malisse choking big time in the third set. Will update the P/L after today but in a rush so will put my picks for today up. Santiago Giraldo (+2.5 games) vs Alexandr Dolgopolov- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Can't be backing Dolgopolov in any capacity right now and feel Giraldo has a chance in this one. The Colombian has already come through a game on the grass, an impressive win against Jesse Levine who is decent on this surface so he should be confident. Dolgopolov hasn't played since being ousted by Tursunov in the first round in Paris which was a really poor result for him and in the past couple of years, he's been really poor on the grass. Even on the clay this year, he really didn't have the best of times and he's been beaten by some average players on the quicker courts this year. Giraldo has won the only previous meeting and should have his chances in this one. Dolgopolov is wildly inconsistent still so think the handicap on Giraldo looks decent. Kevin Anderson (-3.5 games) vs Kenny de Schepper- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Already on the South African outright and think he'll win his first match on the grass a shade cosily than the odds suggest. De Schepper beat Ram in 3 sets yesterday but he still offered up quite a few break points in that match which is a worry because he's unlikely to be doing much on Anderson's serve. It should be quite a serve fest but I think Anderson will offer more on return and that should see him through this one and the handicap is low enough to cover even with a handicap. Andy Murray vs Nicolas Mahut- Over 20.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) There's really no guarantees over Murray's fitness here even though he has said he feels fine. Even at 100% Mahut can cause him problems on grass as we saw 12 months ago. I do think Murray will come through this one eventually, but with the serve that Mahut possesses, he should be able to stay close to the Scot, and one really tight set should see the line through. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin- Over 21.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) Price has just dropped on this one but the line still looks low. Tsonga is extremely dangerous on this surface but he may need a game or two to really adjust to conditions. Roger-Vasselin is solid enough on the grass, and performed well here 12 months ago, where he made the third round, beating Andy Roddick en route so he has points to defend here so he'll give it his all. This line was covered the last time the two met back in Marseille in 2012 and with Tsonga perhaps yet to find his feet on the grass, the overs look a good call to me. Denis Istomin to beat Igor Sijsling- 10/11 Coral- (3/10) Wrong favourite for me here. Istomin's form may be poor but he usually does okay on the grass and never enjoys the clay season much anyway. He had a good grass season last year, making the fourth round at SW19 and then pushed Federer at the Olympics which shows how his game is more suited to the grass. Sijsling had a better clay swing than Istomin, but whether he'll be able to return enough balls against Istomin's powerful ground strokes I have doubts over. Istomin already beat him earlier in the year at the Aussie Open and now on Istomin's arguably best surface, I think he deserves to be a bit shorter than he is here.
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Re: June 10 - June 16 Doesn't look like the best of starts for me really. Hopefully things are better over at Queen's. Lukas Rosol (-2.5 games) vs Samuel Groth- 5/6 Bet365- 3/10) Not overly keen on backing Rosol with handicaps but it looks low enough for him to cover here. Should be close for the most part with very few breaks, but ultimately Rosol is the better player of the two. Groth has come through qualification for Queen's without any real problems, but Matosevic beat him in straight sets last week, and the Aussie has lost to some really average players this season, far lower in the rankings than the top 100. Rosol hasn't been in the best of form, but his ground strokes should be too powerful for Groth here and he should offer more on return so I'll back him to see the handicap through. Ryan Harrison to beat Jarkko Nieminen- Evens Bet365- (3/10) Not sure what Harrison has done to be the underdog here. He may not be in the greatest of form, but neither was he last year coming into the grass season and he managed to make the semis at Eastbourne. Away from the US hard court swing, grass should be where the American enjoys his best results as the conditions really suit his powerful game. Nieminen has had an okay year, but why he chose to play a challenger after Paris on the clay instead of preparing on the grass like Harrison did is a mystery to me. It could be down to his really poor record on the grass so there's a case that he might not be fully up for this one anyway whereas Harrison certainly will be as he needs the points. It should be close, but the preparation of Nieminen worries me slightly and his grass court record isn't good enough to make him favourite so it's the young American for me. Xavier Malisse to beat Juan Martin Del Potro- 3/1 Stan James- (3/10) I'm not having these prices and I'm not even going to bother with the handicap. Even if the Argentine wins this, the prices are still absurd on a grass court and I can't pass them up. If Del Potro was in really good form, the prices are still way to high on Malisse, and considering Juan Martin hasn't played since Rome, and in that little period he lost to Nieminen and Paire there's no guarantees to how he will play today. I find it almost impossible to imagine he'll be anywhere near 100% and Malisse is wily enough on the grass to cause problems. He didn't play that well yesterday in beating Garcia-Lopez but he's had a game now to adjust to the grass, unlike Del Potro, so I'll see just how far he can go to causing a little upset today. Kenny de Schepper vs Rajeev Ram- Tie Break in Match- 10/11 Coral- (3/10) Nicolas Mahut vs Rhyne Williams- Tie Break in Match- 5/6 Coral- (3/10) Going to try my old favourite market with these two matches as the prices look pretty high considering the players and the surfaces. Mahut as we know is a very dangerous player on the grass, and should face Andy Murray in the second round but it's very rare that his matches don't contain a tie break somewhere along the line. Big serve but returning wise he leaves a little to be desired, whilst Williams possesses a decent serve himself. He played out a tie break with de Schepper last week so think we could see a 7-6 set in that match. Whilst we should definitely see a tie break in Ram-de Schepper match as well. The Frenchman, with his lefty serve is a hard man to break, whilst Ram, with all his experience of playing in the doubles can serve well also. They met at the start of the year where there was a tie break in the first set and with quicker condition in London, I think they will play out at least one more today. Kyle Edmund (+4.5 games) vs Grega Zemlja- 11/10 Bet365- (3/10) We've seen yesterday just how impressive the Brits seem to be at Queen's and I think Kyle Edmund can go well today. He showed last year that he can play, as he beat Gimeno-Traver in the qualifiers for Wimbledon and he'll have so much support today which will be interesting to see how Zemlja copes with it. He does usually perform well on the grass, however we saw last year how he can be troubled by lower ranked players and Josh Goodall ran him close at Wimbledon. Providing Edmund doesn't struggle with nerves, I think he'll keep this one close enough and see the handicap through.
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Re: June 10 - June 16 Dimitrov was p*ss poor yesterday but at least he got through which keeps my outright going on him. He's still available at 16/1 on Boylesports, whilst Anderson is 33/1 with Ladbrokes and I've got 1 point each way on both just for the record. I'm on -5.00 for the tournament though from yesterday so hoping for better today. Taking on a lot so let's get to it. Will start with the event in Halle. Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Carlos Berlocq- Over 19.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (3/10) Like a few others on here, I'm on the German for the tournament but this line does look a little low to me. Berlocq has caused Kohlschreiber all sorts of problems in the past, even on the hard courts where the German would be a big favourite. In fact, there has only been 1 match in the H2H where this line hasn't been covered, and that was when Berlocq won way back in 2006 and the 4 meetings since then have covered this line. Ultimately Kohlschreiber should win, but with the quicker conditions, Berlocq should still be able to hold his own, and one close set should see this line through. Gael Monfils vs Milos Raonic- Over 23.5 games- 10/11 BetVictor- (3/10) The line may appear to be high at first, but under closer inspection it actually looks a game or so too low. I hope the Frenchman pulls through as I'm on him outright but it's hard to see this game being anything other than the flip of a coin. This line could easily be covered in two sets, but I wouldn't rule this one going the distance like their only previous meeting. Raonic would have liked a better clay season in all honesty, especially in Paris where he lost in the third round but on the grass you know what to expect from the Canadian. Big bombs and powerful groundstrokes, whilst there is still room for improvement on return. Monfils returned to form in Paris and should have made the fourth round as he blew match points against Robredo but that should have given him confidence ahead of the grass season. It would surprise me if we see any more than 2 breaks of serve in the entire match regardless of how many sets there are. There should be plenty of cheap points for both guys and it should be a serve fest really, so the overs look good to me. Lukasz Kubot to beat Tobias Kamke- 5/6 BetVictor- (3/10) Think the Pole deserves to be a bigger favourite for this one. He's won the last 2 matches between the two, albeit in deciding sets and although he's not been having a good year, the grass will compliment his serve and volley style and should really frustrate Kamke who isn't the best of returners anyway. The German had a shocker on the grass 12 months ago, winning just the one match and those were the only sets he won in his 4 matches. He did okay in Paris to be fair, pushing Benneteau close in 4 sets in the second round but back in the quicker conditions, it should suit Kubot more I would say. This should be close, but I do think the Pole holds the advantage in styles in this matchup and he should be able to frustrate Kamke if he serves well, and I think that might be the difference today.
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Re: June 10 - June 16 I will just take one actually which looks pretty decent. Grigor Dimitrov (-4.5 games) vs Dudi Sela- 10/11 Bet365- (5/10) Depending on who serves first here, Dimitrov may just need one break a set which is the minimum I expect of him in this one. There could be an argument that Sela has had a bit more preparation on the grass than Dimitov, but considering he was hammered by Bobby Reynolds in Nottingham last week I wouldn't say he is in any better shape than Dimitrov. The Bulgarian has had some time off since Paris, and should have had time to practice on the grass and recently, the only guys capable of beating have been those in the top 30 or so. Dudi Sela is very far from that, and whenever Sela has played anyone decent this season, he's been well beaten. Very rarely has he ventured outside the challenger circuit and without any real weapons for the grass, it's hard to see him really pushing Dimitrov here.
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Re: French Open 2013 Final went perfectly to plan, meaning I finish on +61.79pts for the tournament. Well done to everyone else who ended in profit. :ok
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Re: June 10 - June 16 For what it's worth, I've taken Monfils and Kohlschreiber over in Germany whilst I'm backing Dimitrov and Anderson at Queen's, just think the draws for both guys look pretty decent considering the prices. Missed today so should be back tomorrow with some match bets in what is one of my favourite tournaments.
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Re: French Open 2013 The women's final didn't really go to plan, with only the serve market coming through. Hopefully I'll be able to end on a high in what has been a really good tournament though. Taking 3 on in the Nadal-Ferrer match. Over 6.5 Breaks of Serve- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (7/10) David Ferrer Under 14.5 games- 20/23 BetVictor- (5/10) Score after 4 games first set 2-2- 11/8 BetVictor- (3/10) I'm reverting back to the old breaks of serve market which looks wrong to me. The way it is set, would suggest that Nadal will win without problems in 3, which is completely disrespectful to David Ferrer who has yet to drop a set in the tournament. Now I'm not saying I expect Ferrer to win, far from it, but he is known to be one of the best returners in the game and will fight for everything in this match. Ultimately I expect him to fall short, but there's absolutely no reason why he can't cause Nadal problems when returning as he has done already this year in winning a couple of sets. The problem for Ferrer is that his serve will constantly be put under pressure by Nadal and even if we see just the 3 sets, there should be at least one set, if not two, where there are a few breaks and if Ferrer does pinch a set like he could well do, we'll see 7 breaks in this match. Although I'm suggesting that Ferrer could well keep it close with Nadal, in the end it's hard to see Nadal not rallying as he finds his feet. In each of their last 5 matches, Nadal has won a set comfortably and Ferrer hasn't managed to take many games from those sets. I actually prefer the unders in the Ferrer games market as opposed to the handicap as it covers me if Nadal wins in 3, but also if Ferrer does take a set, he'll still need to win another 9 games in total which is still a big ask in my opinion, especially if Nadal gets his forehand going. Most firms have this line a game or two shorter and although I'd love to see Ferrer win, acclaiming 15 games is a tough ask. Given the way Ferrer has played thus far, he should be confident coming into this one and traditionally he usually starts pretty well against Nadal and keeps it close. There may be an argument that he'll be nervous in his first final, but there weren't any nerves against Tsonga early on so there's enough to suggest he'll be okay here as well so I'd expect the two Spaniards to cancel eachother out early on, and 2-2 after the first 4 games looks pretty likely at a decent price.
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Re: French Open 2013 Three for me ahead of the women's final. Serena Williams (-5.5 games) vs Maria Sharapova- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Over 6.5 Double Faults- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (6/10) Under 7.5 Breaks of Serve- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) After the classic that was Djokovic-Nadal yesterday, I'm unsure whether this match will come anything close to that. If the recent H2H is anything to go by, it's hard to see Sharapova really troubling the American here. She's spoken out about how she'll need to change her tactics in this game to beat Serena, but quite what she can do I really don't know. Whether that will be to try and hit through Williams more or whatever but this is such a poor match-up for her as Williams is probably better in every respect than the Russian. The American has won the last 10 meetings, dropping just 3 sets in that time which shows how the American dominates this particular rivalry. Williams hammered the Russian 6-1 6-4 just a few weeks ago and it's hard to see anything other than Williams winning this one comfortably. Even when Sharapova dominated games, her serve is still a major issue and you always have worries over her second serve when watching her play. Add to that the pressure that Williams will cause the Russian on serve and the fact that you feel Sharapova will have to really go for it on her second serve then that leads me to think we could see a ton of doubles in this match. Sharapova could go close to covering the line on her own in truth if she really struggles, but Williams can add in a couple as well so I think 7 double faults looks on the low side. Given how I expect Williams to win in a couple of comfortable sets, that should mean there won't be enough time 8 breaks of serve. Sharapova should struggle to do much consistently on the American's serve and although Serena should make in roads, if she wins this quickly, we shouldn't see anymore than 6 breaks by my reckoning so taking the unders in the breaks of serve market.
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Re: French Open 2013 Shame Tsonga couldn't take that second set tie breaker, could have been a different story then but credit to Ferrer, still not dropped a set in the tournament. +9.65 from today then, taking the overall to +55.22 ahead of the two finals.
William Hill World Championships > December 18th - January 4th
in Darts Predictions
Posted
Re: William Hill World Championships > December 18th - January 4th Hate to be the one to bring the thread back to sanity, but super call on Anderson kev. Very brave to go against Taylor in a world final but payed off. Super tournament and delighted for Gary. Good lineup for the premier league as well. Glad to see Huybrechts given a chance!