harry_rag

A simple premise, as of 1st Jan I'll start posting an indicative stake for all the selections I post on here (whether in a personal quest or the thread for a specific sport) and I'll track the performance in here so I know whether or not they've been profitable.
I've been posting a few more footy bets lately and, after a bit of a barren spell, have found a few decent winners. Rather than having a general sense of my posted bets doing well or badly I thought I'd track them so I know for sure. 
I'd expect them to be profitable over the course of a year (ever the optimist) but will expose the performance for all to see either way. 

Thanks for you very much for your help this year. Happy Christmas and I am looking forward to next year?

4 qualifiers yesterday but none came home.
Bank is +€2,605

We're going into a quieter period now for us a few days. There's no racing today, 24th or the 25th. There may be selections posted between now and the New Year but its unlikely. There are a lot of horses being specifically primed for this period and the results can be erratic so we tend to leave off until the first days of the New Year.

Thank you again for your interest & we'll be in touch again shortly.

Thanks Harry.
However I was sick for some time and i had a lot of work also. I am back now

Bet 42 - won 17 - 40% SR - 33% ROI - +15.10 P/L
?

No problem thought I just googled Racing Post Sport and it was linked to on the first page I accessed.
https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football/kevin-pullein-best-bet-of-the-weekend-and-thought-for-the-week/464139
His tips appear on a Friday night and his weekly "thoughts" column on a Thursday night.
It's just occurred to me that you might want to see previous week's selections in which case just type his name in the search box on that page and the past ones seem to pop up.

Could that be recency bias at play @Fader - in the long run maybe research and stats is more profitable than your gut. Hard to tell without records to refer to, but it's certainly an interesting topic.

I have had three times now where I've fancied a player, did some research on stats etc and changed my mind. Only for the original player to win. Gut feeling, alot of the time, seems to work for me. Another poor session there. Hoping for something better tonight as the quality is most definitely a big step-up for the majority of these four matches :
D. Van Duijvenbode Vs B. Brooks
J. Henderson Vs M. Kantele
L. Humphries Vs P. Lim
J. Wade Vs C. Rydz
I'm looking forward to seeing Van Duijvenbode, Humphries and Rydz again tonight. We'll get nothing good, odds wise, for Van Duijvenbode. In the Hendo Vs Kantele match though, Henderson will have a match on his hands, I feel. He really should have too much consistency for Kantele though. He would be the worry in a four fold consisting of Van Duijvenbode, Henderson, Humphries and Wade. However, Rydz is a class player and could easily turn up tonight and beat Wade.
2.5pts J.Henderson to beat M.Kantele and score the most 180s 6/5 paddypower
4pts L. Humphries to beat P.Lim, Most 180s and Highest Checkout 6/4 paddypower
------------------------------------------------
2pts Wade, Humphries & Henderson 5/2 paddypower
1.5pts Van Duijvenbode, Henderson, Humphries & Wade all to hit the most 180s in their matches 9/1 skybet
0.5pts saver accy - Van Duijvenbode -1.5 sets / Rydz to win and most 180s / Humphries and most 180s / Kantele 22/1 paddypower
 

For anyone still struggling, you have to switch to desktop version to set minimum SP odds.  It won't work on mobile version. 
 
Hope that helps 

Cards ✔️
 
P/L + 14.38 

Hello, thank you for making contact and your interest in this.
It is actually quite straighforward, you select to back your selection at Betfair SP. There is then a "Set SP odds limit" box to tick on the Betfair SP section and you simply put 5.0 in the option then for what odds you want the "min" to be. The system is built/recorded using BSP so I can't comment about other exchanges/using BOG etc.
 
 
 
 
 
 

you can set sp min odds limit when backing at bfsp...just click 5 and let run(i think this is correct) 

Presumably you use a Bot to enter your bet at Betfair SP with the command that the bsp must not be below 5.0.
This avoids sitting at the computer just before every selection runs, although the downside is perhaps that early bigger bookmaker prices are not taken.

I have same problem of so prices occasionally drifting out of 'system' price... But it's breakeven out of system price so okay for me. Accountant what is lsp with new rules?

To be fair, I wouldn't have called him getting a red in a million years so just one of those gut-wrenching hits you have to take I think.

Unfortunately didn’t back Garcia with a firm who gives you money back if the player is sent off! 

Better late than never. Couple of goalscorers that appeal for an interest.
Valverde at 7/1 with 888 and Raul Garcia at 6.6 on BF.

Check out the latest odds and ratings for the Spanish La Liga matches this week. A lot to think about with matches in the middle of the week next week too. Tell us your bets down below! 

Wasn’t sure whether to post this in the Darts Forum or the Systems and Strategy Forum … but as most of my selections will be based on my own player ratings, I plumped for this area of the forum.
I’m a keen follower of the darts, but I’m guilty of having too many stupid bets and accas; by recording all my bets on here I will hopefully reduce the number of bets I have, and only post the one’s where I see the greatest value. My ratings are based on current form, and I’ll be seeking out the best odds for each selection I put up.
I’ll be looking to cover all the PDC tournaments throughout the year (both televised and non-televised) with a starting bank of 1000 points.
My tournament outright picks with be between 0.5pts and 3pts, and singles will be 5pts or 10pts depending on how strongly I fancy the selection. I’ll also chuck in the odd 1pt acca in the early rounds of the big tournaments.
 
The Darts World Championship gets underway on Tuesday evening, and I’m putting up a couple of outright selections to get started.
Damon Heta to win Quarter Two
1 pt @ 11.00 (Various)
There are question marks about a few of Heta’s rivals in this section of the draw. Gary Anderson is suffering from a leg injury and Glen Durrant is recovering after a bout of Covid-19. Rob Cross has been out of form for much of this year, and whilst Devon Petersen has been brilliant for much of the year, his results in the last couple of weeks of the season haven’t been great. Michael Smith is a big danger, but Heta has finished the season in great form. He picked up a ProTour title during the Winter Series, and has kept his arm in by picking up the Home Tour III title a few days ago. Enthusiasm is slightly tempered by a pretty tough looking draw – Danny Baggish in the first round and then Adrian Lewis in the second isn’t ideal – so I’ll just stick to a 1 point bet here.
 
Jose De Sousa most tournament 180s
1pt @ 13.00 (Bet365 / Betfred)
Most bookies have Van Gerwen as the favourite to win this market which doesn’t feel right, he’s by no means one of the highest 180 hitters on tour, so for me he has to be opposed. I might be letting my heart rule my head a little with this one, De Sousa is rapidly becoming one of my favourite players on tour, and he’s won me a fair few quid over the last season. ‘The Special One’ still may be a little underestimated by the bookies, he has been in fine form recently, and has been consistently hitting 180’s for some time, not least when he won the Grand Slam title a few weeks ago. To win this market we need someone who is going to reach at least the semi-finals, and although De Sousa finds himself in the same quarter as Gerwyn Price and Nathan Aspinall, he looks sure to go well in the biggest event of the year. He’s a best price 5/1 to reach the last four, so I think 12/1 on hitting the most 180s in the tournament looks like a good play.
 
Damon Heta most tournament 180s
0.5pts @ 67.00 (various)
Based on the fact I think Heta will go well, this price looks too good to miss. If Heta does win his quarter he’ll have played an extra match compared to most of his rivals in this market, due to not being in the World’s top 32. He’s a pretty big 180 hitter, so a small interest for me.

I think one thing you have to think about is - Why are you betting ?
I can't really speak for people who are in it to make money ..... that's never been my focus
My enjoyment has always been in solving the puzzle. Assessing form, factors, coming  to a conclusion and hopefully being proved right. What I've found is that I get just as much satisfaction from being proved right whether I have 2 quid or 20 quid on. In fact with the various racing competitions on PL I rarely bet on horses at all ....... I get the same buzz from posting a winner with no money on it
I got it right, it feels good, have a little skip around the room !
I do bet on football, very small stakes...... but I suspect if we had an equivalent Nap of the Day on football I might even give that up and just get my buzz from the competition
So .......... I only bet with very small stakes and don't worry about losing
So this would be my advice ........ if you're not in it to make money just play with small stakes and get your enjoyment from 'solving the puzzle'
 
 
 

Not a bad set up for yet another bet on Salzburg's corner gaining prowess. Red Bull may or may not give you wings but they certainly seem to make use of them! >5.5 corners at 23/20 and >6.5 at 9/4, both with 888 (I have the benefit of a few 5% boosts every day but ok at the "natural" prices).

Not a bad set up for yet another bet on Salzburg's corner gaining prowess. Red Bull may or may not give you wings but they certainly seem to make use of them! >5.5 corners at 23/20 and >6.5 at 9/4, both with 888 (I have the benefit of a few 5% boosts every day but ok at the "natural" prices).

?? After reflection I decided to take a break until 2021.
I would come back at the beginning of January to get back into the bets properly. 
The rest of the Betting will do me good and I will be able to think about the next step more serenely. 
See you soon ??

Re point 7 (best price and plenty of accounts) I'd say don't forget about spread betting, though it can be both tiring and painful banging a drum for something and banging your head against the wall at the same time! 
I'm more of a sports punter than racing but I'd say without any doubt that getting into spread betting has been the single most significant thing I've ever done in terms of becoming a better punter. You should have the accounts because sometimes the spreads will offer the best value for what you want to back. Even if you don't open accounts it's worth understanding the mechanics of spread prices as you can use them to identify potential value in fixed odds markets (e.g. the spreads for winning distances at a meeting might flag an under or over bet with a fixed odds firm).

interesting point Harry, as I said in my original piece I'm always learning and open to new 'edges' so will bear that one in mind for sure