harry_rag

No joy yesterday but today is another day ?

This is the best week of the NFL, these games matter.                          In the wildcard stages in the last 3 years the stats are:                   Teams     win by 11+ 2             win by 8-10 1             win by 5-7 5             win by 1-4 4                 12                               Having a good defence is crucial at this stage when margins are so close.         The best defence LA Rams +3.5 @ 20/23           With Covid affecting the Browns, I will side with the Steelers -6 @10/11     Bears will lose but by 10? Bears +10 @ 20/23           Bills are excellent Bills -6.5 @ 20/23             The Ravens defence will find a way to slow Henry Ravens -3 @ 4/5
          Whilst I think the Buccs will beat Washington, I am going to give this game a miss.                     Usual bet 1 point Canadian 4 point accumulator 30 points staked all odds and spreads Bet365
Season record
W34 L28 D 4 season profit ats 266 points.

2 winning bets yesterday on Villa goal times +70.5 points, 1 from 3 Rugby sells +7 points for a total profit on the day of 77.5 points.
71.5 points up overall.

Mainz v Frankfurt  14:30
Both teams over 1.5 cards @ 2.05 b365
The referee  B. Dankert  has averaged 5.17 cards  in 2020/21, the 3rd highest in the division

This week’s pick is Osasuna 0 Asian handicap cards v Real Madrid, 1pt at 1.6 with 365.
Either this is possibly the best value bet of all time or there’s a typo in Kev’s explanation of how it works: “Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Osasuna’s total is higher than Real’s the bet will win, if it is the same stakes will be refunded and if it is lower the bet will win.” 

Thanks Helen. I was just thinking in terms of a bit of chat about strategy (fairly low level to accommodate my skill level!) e.g. preferred openings etc. or which apps people favour for playing online. I'd be up for a game if anyone fancied one.
I currently use an app called ChessByPost and have played a lot of games during the pandemic against someone I know from another forum (>200). I've just made my first foray into playing ranked games against randomly allocated opponents.
I'm not short of "action" as it were but was just intrigued to see if there was any interest in the game on the forum.

We have a newly set up 'Off Topic Chat' Forum which you might not have seen at the bottom of the forum menu. 
Fledgeling threads in there currently about Bitcoin, Stocks & Shares and Chess. We thought there may be some crossover particularly with chess and poker if anyone in here is interested to join in the discussion.
 

1776 result: Garcia 67, Gay 70. Won £80
Profit to date £1034.88

Have updated the final 2020 figures; last 5 years totals net of a full 5% commission and using Betfair SP

Year Win Backs 2016 127.26 2017 157.97 2018 -50.89 2019 128.36 2020 142.33 Total 505.03  

Hi All,

A very Happy New Year to you all and best wishes for 2021.

We're back live from today and looking to replicate last years and the previous years great returns.

Just to recap, we looking to back for the Win only once the Betfair SP price is 5.0 or above. Any horse below this is being ignored. You can use the "set SP limit" at 5.0 on Betfair to ensure this is completed automatically for you.


12:40 LINGFIELD (A.W) Baba Reza 13:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Ornate 13:40 LINGFIELD (A.W) Anisoptera 14:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Too Friendly 14:25 FAKENHAM Perfect Moment 15:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Cafe Sydney 15:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Kyllukey 16:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Inevitable Outcome 17:20 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) My Girl Maggie 17:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Athmad 18:20 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Odyssey Girl 19:20 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Inaam 19:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Revolutionary Man


 
                                                             

Football won but horse lost , so small profit today ?

Late to the party this week, a couple of plays in the early games.
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland: 20 points on Hooper to score a TD at 47/20 with 888
Baltimore @ Cincinatti: 20 points on Brown to score a TD at 21/10 with 888
(Both bets 1 point stake in "old money"; 20 points reflect the staking plan for all bets that I'm using this year.

Quick update, bets posted in the Rugby Union and Premier League footy threads thus far.
4 from 7 profitable RU spread sells yielded a return of +75 points
3 from 10 fixed odds footy bets saw 87 points return 222 for +135 points
Total after 2 days = +210 points.
January starts with good fortune, contrasting with results in December. Obviously it's long term results that count and we're neither as good as our best days or as bad as our worst ones.

Quick update, bets posted in the Rugby Union and Premier League footy threads thus far.
4 from 7 profitable RU spread sells yielded a return of +75 points
3 from 10 fixed odds footy bets saw 87 points return 222 for +135 points
Total after 2 days = +210 points.
January starts with good fortune, contrasting with results in December. Obviously it's long term results that count and we're neither as good as our best days or as bad as our worst ones.

Quick update, bets posted in the Rugby Union and Premier League footy threads thus far.
4 from 7 profitable RU spread sells yielded a return of +75 points
3 from 10 fixed odds footy bets saw 87 points return 222 for +135 points
Total after 2 days = +210 points.
January starts with good fortune, contrasting with results in December. Obviously it's long term results that count and we're neither as good as our best days or as bad as our worst ones.

Quick update, bets posted in the Rugby Union and Premier League footy threads thus far.
4 from 7 profitable RU spread sells yielded a return of +75 points
3 from 10 fixed odds footy bets saw 87 points return 222 for +135 points
Total after 2 days = +210 points.
January starts with good fortune, contrasting with results in December. Obviously it's long term results that count and we're neither as good as our best days or as bad as our worst ones.

There was no selection as far as I could see this weekend. I think Kev likes Christmas off!

<Insert introductory text here> Oldham +2 Asian handicap corners (v Forest Green), 1pt at 1.95 with 365.

Athletico 5 Getafe 2 for a £10 loss
Elche 2 Real Madrid 3 for a £10 loss
Total for the above -£20 bank now £643.28
Nothing for today and ....
All the best for 2021 to everyone on here....stay safe and have a great year 

What a way to end the year. Worst week of 2020 - W0 L4 D1.
Cumulative W31 L27 D3 Profit 254 points.
Better luck with NFL 2021.

Hey @ProfessorMJ @PercyP @Valiant Thor et al I can't help thinking we've taken social isolation a little too far in here by all sticking to our individual threads. A bit late for this season but I think a weekly thread where anyone interested can see all our NFL picks in a "one stop shop" makes a bit of sense. If necessary we could maintain sperate threads for keeping tally etc. though I'd probably just do it in the weekly threads with the benefit of hindsight. It's probably off-putting for anyone just browsing to have to visit multiple threads. I'll have a go at collating something for the rest of this season, feel free to add your picks (or a link to your own thread). Happy Christmas from the forum's least expert NFL punter. 
 

My first bet of the weekend is a Murray TD for New Orleans at 13/5 with 888.
https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/174166-hrs-nfl-selections-td-scorers/?do=findComment&comment=2802924
4 picks and a couple of "leans" from @ProfessorMJ here 
https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/175403-nfl-top-picks-by-stats-professor-week-16/
And @PercyP has got his tips out early here
https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/175377-nfl-week-16-percy-p/
Just by way of a digest for the casual visitor; as I say, I think a weekly thread with all the NFL selections (given how few of us post anyway) makes sense.

With Xmas fast approaching I will get my tips out early:
Jets will not repeat. Browns to win -9.5 @ 10/11
Dallas is a bad team Eagles to win -2.5 @ 10/11
LA Rams to win +1 20/21
The Titans to upset the packers. Titans to win +3 @ 1/1 
Chargers to win -3 @ 5/6
Normal bet 1 point Canadian 4 point accumulator 30 points staked (all prices and spreads Bet365). Record ATS W31 L23 D2 profit 284 points.
Wishing you all a merry Christmas and a healthy New Year.

Written Wednesday December 23rd, 2020 at 1 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
After a series of five straight weeks without a negative record against the spread (ATS), we underwent a bad Week 15. Indeed, we went 0-2-1, including the 5-star pick that lost badly.
I certainly did not expect the Steelers to play that poorly against a weak division rival on national television after losing two consecutive games. That was an awful performance by Pittsburgh.
It was a reminder that we cannot win every week! Losing runs are inevitable in the sports betting industry, unfortunately!
Let’s roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track right away!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): CHICAGO BEARS -7.5 AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Chicago is 5-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more. They are clearly surging and the light has turned on for Mitchell Trubisky. After crushing the Texans, Da Bears pulled off the upset in Minnesota last week.
Trubisky has completed more than 70% of his passes in each of his last three outings, which is impressive! During this time period, he has tossed 5 TD passes versus a single interception. He is also a decent runner, when necessary. There is no reason to believe he cannot do it again when facing a vulnerable Jags defense.
Another guy that has been on fire lately is running back David Montgomery. He has averaged 109 rushing yards over his past four games, while scoring a total of six touchdowns. His yards-per-carry average during these four meetings has been even more impressive: a whopping 6.1!
The Bears defense remains a steady force and they should create problems to whatever quarterback will be under center for Jacksonville. I believe Chicago wins this one by a good margin.
PICK #2 (2 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2 VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Enough is enough. The bad streak must end for Mike Tomlin’s squad.
In what should be a fairly cold day in Pittsburgh, I could see Philip Rivers struggling, especially considering he is not mobile and about to face a feisty pass rush. Indianapolis will be forced to make quick throws, which will make them more predictable.
The Steelers are showing a great 15-4-2 ATS record in their last 21 games as home underdogs. That’s pretty convincing!
Meanwhile, Indy has beaten the spread just once in their last five trips to Pittsburgh.
Big Ben looked awful last week and he is now facing a pretty tough Colts defense. However, Indianapolis is better defending the run, but the Steelers happen to throw the ball very often.
I think the Steelers outlast the Colts in a tough, physical and low-scoring game.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2 AT DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys run defense ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed per carry. As for Philly, they hold the second-best yards-per-rush average in the entire league. That’s a good recipe for success, especially after switching from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts, the latter being a much more dangerous QB as a runner.
Hurts has really been impressive in his first two starts with 4 TD passes and zero interception, while rushing for an average of 84.5 yards per game in those matches. And that included a game against the stout Saints defense!
The Cowboys have a good trio of receivers, but Dalton has been fairly inconsistent. He has a low yards per attempt average and he missed many easy throws last weekend. Also, Philadelphia’s defense is a notch better than Dallas’, and their front four should give problems to the Cowboys offensive line.
The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs, but 1-4 ATS following a straight up win.
One interesting statistic: during the last 10 meetings between these two clubs, the favorite has beaten the spread eight times.
Ultimately, I trust Jalen Hurts to be able to extend drives both with his arm and his legs more than Andy Dalton. Philly takes this game.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): NEW YORK JETS +9.5 VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Jets are coming off a stunning upset win over the Rams last week, so many people will anticipate a letdown here. I don’t expect New York to come up with another victory, but this spread seems pretty high to me.
The Browns have more incentive for sure, but they will be on the road for the fourth time in five weeks. Cleveland has beaten the spread just once over the last seven contests where they were road favorites.
Meanwhile, the Jets present a nice 9-3-1 ATS record at home against teams with a winning record. You might also be surprised to hear New York has beaten the spread in four of their last five games in December.
Cleveland relies a lot on its running game on offense. That’s good news for the Jets, whose run defense ranks 8th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry. It will come down to whether they can slow down Baker Mayfield, who has been on a roll. He is susceptible to making mistakes, though.
Crowder, Perriman and Mims are good enough to allow the Jets offense to move the ball against an average Cleveland defense. Running back Ty Johnson has also provided a good spark on some plays for New York.
I like New York to keep it within 9 points.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
LEAN #1: Texans -8.5 vs Bengals (Cincy won’t play with the same intensity after a hard-fought game in Pittsburgh last Monday, they also lose one day of rest from playing Monday, Texans mad after losing two close calls against the Colts recently, Houston holds an 8-2 ATS record in the last 10 meetings with the Bengals);
LEAN #2: Titans +3.5 at Packers (I don’t feel good at all fading Aaron Rodgers in a primetime game, especially with one extra day of rest and after being at home in four of the past five weeks, but I’m still going to do it. Packers are 1-6 ATS after an outright win, while Tennessee is 7-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record);

 
Merry Christmas to all of you!!! I am super grateful to have such great followers like you!!
Professor MJ
https://youtu.be/nMWjWPEhzCI

?? Merry Christmas everyone ??