Mr Intensity
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Posts posted by Mr Intensity
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Re: Arb bet guaranteed return today
My point is they are 6/5 to win the match so that's just wrong:okDraw No Bet perhaps? -
Re: Arb bet guaranteed return today
No idea what this part is:eyesplace £60 on kidderminster " no draw " odds 16/5 at ladbrokes -
Re: ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb
Nice price' date=' I really should remember that Pinnacle aren't on Oddschecker when looking for prices! FWIW I make Lapentti about 1.59 to win, so was happy with 1.73, but the 1.84 looks a gift. Good luck :hope[/quote'] Yeah I use odds-comparison and also have to look at Pinnacle separately. -
Re: ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb LAPENTTI @ 1.84 Pinnacle. I see Lapentti as a decent fav here. He lost to Cuevas in a very tight match last week but in Vina del Mar I don't see that as a bad performance. Martin retired during a final set tie break against Traver with cramp, which is a bit lame so I fancy opposing him here. Lapentti also reached the semis of this event last year, losing a final set tie break to Moya. I also think Lapentti is a class above even though the rankings are similar at the moment.
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Re: Pokerstars is so sick Can we think of a different term to use instead of 'negative variance'? It's god awful. Perhaps 'my turn to get bummed' would be better?:unsure
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Re: ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb RECOUDERC @ 3.25 Paddy Power. Youzhny still looks a mess, and until he sorts himself out he's still very opposable. Don't know much about Recouderc, but he got a couple of impressive wins over O Rochus and Gicquel in qualifying and that's enough for me to back him at this price. DAVYDENKO @ 1.53 Skybet. Stand out price and it looks big enough to get involved in Davy with. Davydenko has missed the past month with a heel problem but he started the season looking decent enough and should be too good. He has a solid record in this event at 10-5 and he's always got through his first match. Andreev hasn't shown much form this year, and had a shocker last week against Doig and is hard to be positive about this week. DE BAKKER @ 3.85 Pinnacle. This looks like a nice enough price to get involved with the home boy. De Bakker has a lot of talent but hasn't really broken through yet. I think he's got a decent game for indoors and can cause Seppi some problems. Seppi is on a poor run of results at the moment, he's actually 3-10 since the US Open but to be fair has had some tough draws. Still his confidence could be pretty low and he's the type that can just put in some really bad performances. He did really well at this event last year beating Hewitt and Nadal before going out to Soderling, but I think the local guy has a decent chance here.
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Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb ANCIC @ 3.00 VC. Ancic has had a pretty strange week. He was fairly awful against Lacko and Hernych but came through comfortably in the other 2 rounds. You could see how much this tournament means to him near the end of the match against Hernych and I think he'll put in a good performance against Cilic. Cilic has been much more comfortable this week but I wasn't impressed with him against Veic then he beat an injured Troicki. Ancic could have a little edge here being the senior Croatian, it will definately be a big deal for Cilic to beat him in the Zagreb final. This should be a close match, and I wouldn't have Ancic above 2.50.
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Re: How much money to make with courtsiding one tennis tournament? He's clearly a little boy who has no idea what he's talking about and is unwilling to listen to what others have to say. Only reason not to nuke is that the thread's been slightly comical thus far.
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Re: Rock'em $1000 Freeroll Out - donks kept hitting:eyes
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Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb
For this reason (amongst others) you should really state which bookie you're using:okBookie pays out on who progresses once first point been won. This cost me in Ao when backed azarenka beat williams who was 1set up. Each bookie does it a different way, who progresses who wins first set or void void if match not complete and so on they never make it easy find either! -
Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb
Yeah just level stakes. The odds I take cover quite a range, but I do mostly go for dogs. Over 600 bets put up on here last year I think the strike rate was around 49% and 6.5% yield. So far this year I've had quite a few ups and downs. To be honest I think I've been quite unlucky. I mean that as, I've lost on retirements but I don't think I've won on retirements, and I've had at least 3 where my player has had match points then lost, and only 1 go the other way in my favour. Anyway, onto the next 100:okHow you not in profit Mr I, with what isnt a bad w/l ratio? Have you lost on bets you staked more on or do you do level stakes? Or is just do with average odds? From what i seen of your bets they always seem decent odds. fig -
Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Grrrr
YTD statsBTW, I said at the start of the year I'd keep a P/L to units stakes. When Cuevas is done I'll have made 100 bets and I'll put up an update. It's not good:$:$W/L 43/57 Staked 100 Profit -0.2121 Yield % -0.21% -
Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb
No, the stuff I put in here I just consider to be straight bets on the outcome. I generally don't trade the matches I have an outright position on and consider trading completely separately. BTW, I said at the start of the year I'd keep a P/L to units stakes. When Cuevas is done I'll have made 100 bets and I'll put up an update. It's not good:$:$Do you trade your positions off to lock in a profit Chris? For eg, in this Cuevas match, he's won the first set, so will you lay him to lock in a profit? -
Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb
..and Sebastian 'I'm winning so I'll lose my serve 3 times in a row' Decoud:wallI'd say Juan Ignacio is going to regret catching up with PL before he goes out to play... -
Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb CUEVAS @ 2.14 Pinnacle. I've been waiting a year to back Cuevas in Vina del Mar again and I've very disappointed with myself that I left him yesterday against Montanes. I was going to leave this one too but I've decided this price is OK. He's done really well ehre again, coming through qualifying and getting good wins over Lapentti and Montanes. After his semi final run here last year he clearly likes this place and looks like he's found his best form again. Capdeville has got a couple of decent wins too, and with home support he'll be tough to beat. But despite what the rankings say, I think Cuevas is the better player, and with the icing on the cake Cuevas beat Capdeville in the doubles yesterday, I'm willing to back him as a dog.
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Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Don't know too much about Decoud. Watched him last year at the French against almagro. Looked pretty decent for a set, just a solid clay courter.
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Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb DECOUD @ 3.75 Stan James. After losing in qualifying Decoud looks to be bringing the good stuff with wins over Fognini and Calleri. This is another very winnable match for him and this price looks too big. This is Acasusos first tournament since the Davis Cup loss, and he got a good win over Belucci but I'm not that convinced by him. He has a good record in this tournament, but H2H is 1-0 to Decoud in a final set tie break in Brazil last year. Should be a pretty close match, like this price.
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Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb
Sure that's not +1.5 games;)Sergiy Stakhovsky (+1.5 sets) (1.83 William Hill) -
Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Nothing for me in Joburg/Zagreb tomorrow.
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Re: Tennis notes/reports Good idea and nice write up:ok
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Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Just copy and paste it mate:ok Don't think it matters if it's that formal or not - someone might just have some info about a player they want to share. One thing I would suggest is having the players names involved in bold and maybe CAPS as it would make it easier when just browsing the thread to find something on a particular player.
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Re: Stan James and Bet Direct
We're all chancers mate:eyesIf you try and open your Betdirect software' date=' it takes you to this page - http://www.betdirect.com/Assets/betdirect/UK/betdirect-Poker-Migration/ I contacted live support because they directed me to the offer - not because the email was on PL. I'm not particlarly happy that my BetDirect account has been vapourised (because I already had a SJ account) without even being informed that it was vapourised..... -
Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Good idea:ok. Might be a good idea to start a thread called "Tennis Notes/Reports" or something to that effect.
Arb bet guaranteed return today
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: Arb bet guaranteed return today Actually, can't believe he thought he'd found an arb that big with 1 bookie. Then I remembered some of his previous posts, and I do believe it:tongue2