Millwall2010
-
Posts
63 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Millwall2010
-
-
Re: Bb Under/over System
Well what can I say, 9 out of 10. Not a bad result! After my punts on both of the Portugal Super Liga games I'm going to ditch the Domestic League games and focus on low scoring leagues such as Portugal and high scoring leagues such as Holland and the scandinavian leagues. There is definitely money to be made with my system despite it being early days. You only have to look at the portugal super liga results for the whole of this season to see that. Due to other commitments, I'm not going to be able to publish any selections or answer any questions from anyone viewing or following this thread. I have explained the system thoroughly so If anyone is interested in using this for betting on over/under 2.5 goals I hope you understand how it works and I wish you good luck. If anyone would like to continue the thread for the benefit of the punters lounge community please let me knowWell that´s all folks today profit was made :loon:loon:loon -
Re: Bb Under/over System
It's looking good at the moment. 6 minutes to go:hopeVitoria Guimaraes 1 - 0 Rio Ave -
Re: Bb Under/over System
Saturday Picks Part IV (Final) Belgium Division 1 Kortrijk v Westerlo U2.5 @ 1.74 BD 76% Portuguese Superliga Guimaraes v Rio Ave U2.5 @ 1.55 BD 80% Naval v Sporting CP U2.5 @ 1.59 BD 87% South Africa Premier Platinum St v Free State U2.5 @ 1.50 BD 65%10 Units each.Kortrijk 1 - 1 Westerlo
Two more fantastic results! Thats now 7 out of 7. Now lets make it 9 out of 9 with the SuperLiga matchesOrlando Pirates 0 - 0 Free State Stars -
Re: Bb Under/over System
Good going Rommeo 5 out of 5. It seems the BB under/over system can be used for European games just as successfully and easily. Lets hope for more of the same. Good luck with the other games. A couple more winners and you've got yourself a nice little profit! :DItalian Serie B Brescia v Modena U2.5 @ 1.68 BD 67% :clap Mantova v Crotone U2.5 @ 1.65 BD 68% PP Triestina v Piacenza U2.5 @ 1.61 BD 72% PP Vicenza v Torino U2.5 @ 1.65 BD 78% :clap 10 Units each. More to follow. -
Re: Bb Under/over System Oh well in that case I will probably stay away from sporting then! I'm actually going to keep the stakes low for this one and go 10pts each for these two SuperLiga matches. Cheers mate once again for covering the European matches. Last nights results really went against us especially the 90th minute goal in the Ajaccio v Nantes game. If those postponed games were playing I'm sure we would of been in profit. GL with todays picks :hope
-
Re: Bb Under/over System A fantastic league which i've just noticed which is a dream for under 2.5 goals is the Portugal SuperLiga. There are only on average 2.32 goals every game and 63% of all games finish unders. If you are going to have a punt in this league the teams to watch for are: Belenenses - 1.77 goals average in every game Braga- 1.79 Rio Ave - 1.77 Naval- 1.92 Sporting- 1.92 For that reason I am betting on unders for the following matches taking place tomorrow: Naval v Sporting CP under 89% 1.61 £20 Returns 32.20 Guimaraes v Rio Ave Under 80% 1.55 £20 Returns 31.00 Although I don't approve of martingale stake betting this could actually prove effective as I havent seen any streaks of more than 3 consecutive over 2.5 goals for any teams in this division. Feedback to this would be appreciated.
-
Re: Bb Under/over System Elmariachic you are a legend mate, thanks for working that out for me. Got to say 9 out of 15 is a tall order but we will see how it goes. Remember I'm just paper trailing this still so I'm not actually putting any money on my selections at the moment. I'm just tweaking it a bit to see how I can shorten the amount of selections and improve the strike rate. Thanks again
-
Re: Bb Under/over System
Alright mate, Thanks for doing the working out for me, I've just came back from the boozer so my brain is dead. It's time consuming enough as it is doing all the English and Scottish league games but if you want to choose to do games in other leagues then as long as you understand the system there is no reason why you can't do it. Rommeo picked some games from european leagues taking place earlier and i'm hoping he could continue this every week.well with 45 selection @ 10€ each your stake will be 450€, the average odds are about 1,8:1 (given those numbers) as long as more than 25 games are winners you re the man ... with 25 winners you are break even lets wait for the results, any reason you only bet english and scottish leagues? bye -
Re: Bb Under/over System Games with a minimum of 70% probability to finish under or over ARSENAL V HULL OVER @ 1.62 BD 72% WEST HAM V CHELSEA over @ 1.81 BD 89% BLACKPOOL V WEST BROM OVERS @ 1.80 BD 80% NOTT FOREST V PRESTON UNDER @ 1.71 77% Norwich v HUDDLESFIELD OVERS@ 1.68 87% WALSALL V LEYTON ORIENT OVERS @ 1.88 BD 72% CREWE V TORQUAY OVERS @ 1.75 77% DARLINGTON V NORTHAMPTON OVER @ 1.89 71% ALTRINCHAM V EASTBOURNE UNDER @ 1.79 74% LUTON V FOREST GREEN UNDERS @ 1.86 77% Salisbury v Tamworth UNDERS @ 1.77 72% Aberdeen v Hibernian UNDER @ 1.67 78% Hearts v Celtic OVER @ 1.85 72% Stirling Alb v Stenhousemuir 1.86 74% East Stirling v Albion UNDER @ 1.85 77% 15 selections, £10 each selection. £150 stake :hope
-
Re: Bb Under/over System BB SYSTEM FOR WEEKEND FOOTIE PREMIER LEAGUE ASTON VILLA V STOKE CITY UNDER @ 1.90 BD 62% BLACKBURN V TOTTENHAM OVER @ 1.89 BD 61% FULHAM V MAN UTD UNDER @ 1.85 BD 54% MAN CITY V SUNDERLAND OVER @ 1.72 BD 56% ARSENAL V HULL OVER @ 1.62 BD 72% WEST HAM V CHELSEA @ 1.81 BD 89% CC CHAMPIONSHIP BLACKPOOL V WEST BROM OVERS @ 1.80 BD 80% DERBY V DONCASTER UNDER @ 1.81 BD 53% PETERBROUGH V WATFORD OVER @ 1.86 62% PLYMOUTH V COVENTRY UNDER @ @ 1.75 62% SHEFF WED V SWANSEA UNDER @ 1.67 58% NOTT FOREST V PRESTON UNDER @ 1.71 77% CC LEAGUE 1 EXETER V SOUTHEND UNDER @ 1.80 52% Norwich v HUDDLESFIELD OVERS@ 1.68 87% TRANMERE V BRISTOL ROVERS OVERS @ 1.83 69% WALSALL V LEYTON ORIENT OVERS @ 1.88 BD 72% WYCOMBE V OLDHAM UNDERS @ 1.66 69% CC LEAGUE 2 ACCRINGTON V BARNET UNDERS @ 1.86 51% ALDERSHOT V BRADFORD OVERS @ 1.82 63% CHELTENHAM V BURTON OVERS @ 1.89 64% CREWE V TORQUAY OVERS @ 1.75 77% DARLINGTON V NORTHAMPTON OVER @ 1.89 71% ROCHDALE V SHREWSBURY OVER @ 1.89 62% CONFERENCE ALTRINCHAM V EASTBOURNE UNDER @ 1.79 74% EBBSFLEET V HISTON UNDER @ 1.83 62% GRAYS V YORK UNDER @ 1.75 65% HAYES V KIDDERMINSTER @ 1.81 69% LUTON V FOREST GREEN UNDERS @ 1.86 77% Salisbury v Tamworth UNDERS @ 1.77 72% Stevenage v Barrow UNDERS @ 1.90 55% Wrexham v Mansfield UNDERS @ 1.84 59% SCOTTISH PREMIER Aberdeen v Hibernian UNDER @ 1.67 78% Rangers v Motherwell OVER @ 1.65 65% Hearts v Celtic OVER @ 1.85 72% SCOTTISH DIV 1 Ayr Utd v Partick UNDER @ 1.73 51% Dundee v Morton OVER @ 1.87 61% QOS v Raith Rovers UNDER @ 1.77 64% Ross County v Airdrie OVER @ 1.85 62% SCOTTISH DIV 2 Cowdenbeath v Arbroath OVER @ 1.85 62% Peterhead v Clyde UNDER @ 1.84 54% Stirling Alb v Stenhousemuir 1.86 74% SCOTTISH DIV 3 Annan v Livingston OVER @ 1.86 54% East Stirling v Albion UNDER @ 1.85 77% Forfar v Berwick OVER @ 1.78 51% Queens Park v Montrose @ 1.79 67% There are 45 selections which qualify for the BB system however these will be filtered to a smaller number. Only matches with a probability of at least 65%- 70% will be selected.
-
Re: Bb Under/over System
Congratulations on your first win using this type of system for under/over 2.5 goals. It's great to see this being implemented to european leagues as I will be very interested to see if it fares well. If it all goes well today, I would definitely consider starting your own thread using the BB system for european games. That way, we can both cover the domestic and european leagues. What do you think Rommeo? :DFriday Picks Germany Ahlen v Cottbus (U 2.5) @ 1.82 (BD 65%) France* Ajaccio v Nantes (U 2.5) @ 1.62 (BD 70%) Tours v Istres (U 2.5) @ 1.60 (BD 79%) Paris FC98 v Creteil (U 2.5) @ 1.62 (BD 73%) Louhans v Gueugnon (U 2.5) @ 1.62 (BD 77%) Netherlands** Heracles Alm v VVV Venlo (O 2.5) @ 1.77 (BD 76%) Helmond v Veendam (O 2.5) @ 1.64 (BD 77%) Emmen v MVV (O 2.5) @ 1.61 (BD 87%) * Consider only BD over 70%; ** Consider only BD over 75% Let´s see like it goes with 10 units each. PS Adelaide U 2.5 FT :clap -
Re: Bb Under/over System
Rommeo has got it spot on, with the Austrialian League game he is on. I did list a game in a previous post where there is a discreptancy between Betdevil and the bookies. 'A good example if you look on the Betdevil site is Portsmouth v Liverpool on Saturday. Bookies have the game finishing under 2.5 goals at 1.85 but betdevils probability for the game finishing unders is just 37%. I wouldn't want to bet on the goals outcome as they conflict against each other.' I hope you now fully understand the system. It's not going to be perfect all the time but i'm hoping there is going to be a more winners than losers to achieve a small but consistent profithey @rommeo, @millwall ... it's me again, haven't you noticed, that betdevil always accords to bookies odds! (or better, odds accord to betdevil stats, because they are using nearly same historical data) for your selections on weekend give me one example where bookie and betdevil do not indicate the same ... (i know you wont pick this game but i dont believe that such a game even exists) and finally if there is never a discrepancy why looking for 2 filters that are indicating the same??? sorry guys i dont understand, but pls proof me wrong by giving an example thx and good luck -
Re: Bb Under/over System
Thank you for your feedback Rommeo and it's good to see some people making a nice little profit, especially the way some of the results turned out in the premier league last weekend! Just to clear something up, I'm not actually claiming this system is going to make you a fortune but hopefully in the long run, it will make a small, steady profit by filtering most of the games being played in the domestic leagues and leaving the games which are more likely to work in our favour. Furthermore, as odds typically average about 1.7 we only need 60% of selections to win to breakeven or make a very small profit. On a matchday when there are a lot of fixtures, thus betting on quite a few games the stakes are spread and if a loss is made it is very unlikely to be high.Good Job Millwall2010!! I started to watch your system with some doubts but it´s seems that could be very effective. Yesterday my options were almost the same that yours: Lyon v Boulogne (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.8 (65%) :@ Montpellier v Bordeaux (Under 2.5 goals) @1.62 (66%) :clap Burnley v Arsenal (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 (75%) :@ Tottenham v Man City (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.70 (77%) :clap Liverpool v Wigan (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.80 (80%) :clap Paris SG v Lens (Under 2.5 goals) @1.76 (59%) :clap With stake of 10 in each and the total was a profit 10.8 units. My filter is basically like yours but I try also different leagues. I continue to test until this weekend. I will try to help the development of this system. Nevertheless i have some doubts that a so simple system (combining betdevil with bookmakers) could be a golden mine. -
Re: Bb Under/over System
All of the ratings, probabilities and enhanced stats are included as you will see if you click on matches, click on a league then one of its fixtures. You then scroll down and it will all be there.I know that one doesn't need a subscription. I was just wondering if a Silver or Gold subscription will have access to those probabilities as it is one of the features: * All Ratings/Probabilities/Analysis/Enhanced Stats. Thanks -
Re: Bb Under/over System
Sorry just one more thing to add to that. I wouldn't for example pick a game which has a 51% probability of scoring under or over 2.5 goals as this is too risky. I generally look for games which are at least over 60% preferrably over 70%Right, the reason you don't see any discrepancies between the selections I have picked on this thread so far is because these are the games with no discrepancies. I understand what you mean when you say 'one could call the system back the lower odds' and in one sense you are right. But I only pick games with the lower odds, be it under or over when Betdevil basically agrees with the bookmakers by having a probability percentage of greater than 51%. For example, Chelsea v Portsmouth to finish overs was priced at 1.57 compared to under being 2.54. There is a big price difference so overs is the clear favourate. The probability percentage on Betdevil was 72% for over 2.5 and only 28% for unders. I would back overs as the both criterias agree. When I filter games on a match day, it is rather because the price between unders and overs is too close indicating it could really go either way (unders or overs) or because the odds are representing lets say overs at 1.88, but betdevil have overs at just 48%. It would not represent good value taking 1.88 to have overs when betdevil is making the assumption that the game is slightly more likely to finish unders (52%) than overs (48%) A good example if you look on the Betdevil site is Portsmouth v Liverpool on Saturday. Bookies have the game finishing under 2.5 goals at 1.85 but betdevils probability for the game finishing unders is just 37%. I wouldn't want to bet on the goals outcome as they conflict against each other. Westham v Chelsea is a good example of when I would back overs as bookmakers price it at 1.82 suggesting it is the favourite outcome compared to 2.03 and betdevil have the probability % at 89%. This does seem a bit too high but both of the criterias agree meaning it is a qualifying bet. You might not call it a system it just takes away some of the risk, finds bets which are more likely to win and bets which represent good value. For example, I had Bolton v WestHam to finish overs at 1.94. Betdevil rated it 89% overs but the stats also backed that up, like boltons home matches having over 3.5 goals and westham having a very leaky defence. Hope this helps to clear things up -
Re: Bb Under/over System
You don't need a subscription. When you are on the hope page click on matches then all of the leagues will come up. Click on whatever league you choose and the upcoming fixtures will appear. Click on each fixture link and all of the stats and odds will come up.Surely helped! I've just noticed that this maybe only available to silver/gold subscriptions: * All Ratings/Probabilities/Analysis/Enhanced Stats What kind of subscription do you have at the moment? -
Re: Bb Under/over System
Right, the reason you don't see any discrepancies between the selections I have picked on this thread so far is because these are the games with no discrepancies. I understand what you mean when you say 'one could call the system back the lower odds' and in one sense you are right. But I only pick games with the lower odds, be it under or over when Betdevil basically agrees with the bookmakers by having a probability percentage of greater than 51%. For example, Chelsea v Portsmouth to finish overs was priced at 1.57 compared to under being 2.54. There is a big price difference so overs is the clear favourate. The probability percentage on Betdevil was 72% for over 2.5 and only 28% for unders. I would back overs as the both criterias agree. When I filter games on a match day, it is rather because the price between unders and overs is too close indicating it could really go either way (unders or overs) or because the odds are representing lets say overs at 1.88, but betdevil have overs at just 48%. It would not represent good value taking 1.88 to have overs when betdevil is making the assumption that the game is slightly more likely to finish unders (52%) than overs (48%) A good example if you look on the Betdevil site is Portsmouth v Liverpool on Saturday. Bookies have the game finishing under 2.5 goals at 1.85 but betdevils probability for the game finishing unders is just 37%. I wouldn't want to bet on the goals outcome as they conflict against each other. Westham v Chelsea is a good example of when I would back overs as bookmakers price it at 1.82 suggesting it is the favourite outcome compared to 2.03 and betdevil have the probability % at 89%. This does seem a bit too high but both of the criterias agree meaning it is a qualifying bet. You might not call it a system it just takes away some of the risk, finds bets which are more likely to win and bets which represent good value. For example, I had Bolton v WestHam to finish overs at 1.94. Betdevil rated it 89% overs but the stats also backed that up, like boltons home matches having over 3.5 goals and westham having a very leaky defence. Hope this helps to clear things upyes i understand your system and your filter but I haven't found one game so far with the discrepancy you described ... and if there are no such games, one could call the system back the "lower" odds (sorry not so easy to explain it in english for me) ... and leave the stats from betdevil aside i hope you understand me, i'm just thinking the two criterias lead to the same result -
Re: Bb Under/over System
Okay, Betdevil does not cover the Uefa Cup, the Europa League or any other Cup games because there is not enough statistics and data such as last 12 meetings to come up with a probability for the home win, draw away win, under or over 2.5 goals. Only leagues are covered as teams play each other regularly, usually twice a season so there is sufficient data to provide a probability for outcomes such as the ones I've listed. Hope this helpsI've been reading this thread for the last hour and a half and must confess I'm really impressed with your system. Thanks for sharing it with us! :ok There is just one thing i couldn't understand in betdevil's site. Is there any reason why some games don't have the probability analysis that you base your system with? Example: today's games of the europa league don't have the betdevil's probability. -
Re: Bb Under/over System Progress Update: Starting Bank: £500 Bank Standing: £539.50 Stake £120 Return: £159.50 Profit: £39.50 Yield: 32.91%
-
Re: Bb Under/over System I didn't quite get the last part but yeah when there is a discrepancy between the two I don't bet on that match. Only when the odds and probability for each game agree I choose that selection, be it unders or overs.
-
Re: Bb Under/over System
+10' date='7 nice mate! 26,75% today ... so far so good ... some late goals in there, Tottenham (have you seen the game? very nice 3:0 in 93rd minute) and late Wigan goal[/quote'] Looks like your doing my calculations for me Elmariachic :rollin Yeah I got very lucky tonight, looked like it was destined for a loss. There are bound to be quite alot of Fixtures for Saturday so I might have to filter quite a few. -
Re: Bb Under/over System It look like the BB system was going to make its first loss however late goals from Nico Kranjcar and Charles N'Zogbia secured another successful night with 3 out of the 4 Premier League games finishing with 3 goals. Burnley v Arsenal (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 £10 Stake Returns £17.20 :@ Chelsea v Portsmouth (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.57 £10 Stake Returns £15.70 :clap Tottenham v Man City (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.70 £10 Stake Returns £17.00 :clap Liverpool v Wigan (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.80 £10 Stake Returns £18.00 :clap Return £50.70 - £40 Stakes (£10 x 4) = £10.70 Profit :nana Personally, my main bet was overs in the Spurs and Man City game, with a very small punt on a 2-1 Spurs win. Also, I had Wigan on the 1.5 Asian Handicap which made my night. :rollin
-
Re: Favourite Backing System (+92.3 pts)
I would quit while your ahead if I were you. It only takes one bad run and your ******. Honestly, is it worth risking such high stakes for what is quite a small profit. Would you do this on roulette? Its the same strategy. Don't wanna sound patronising but someone here needs to tell youAlright just went trough the thread. Total staked: 1232.5 Returned: 1324.8 Net balance: +92.3 pts ROI*: 107,48% *Return of Investment. Not the worst stats, but we need to improve this one :dude -
Re: Bb Under/over System Wednesday Night Selections Last night's football proved successful for the BB System with 5 of the 7 selections winning, however I feel this is where its going to fall to pieces and I'm going to have to go back to the drawing board as I'm hoping all four of tonights Premier league games finish over 2.5 goals. What's more, is that 3 out of 4 selections need to go over to make a profit Burnley v Arsenal (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 £10 Stake Returns £17.20 Chelsea v Portsmouth (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.57 £10 Stake Returns £15.70 Tottenham v Man City (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.70 £10 Stake Returns £17.00 Liverpool v Wigan (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.80 £10 Stake Returns £18.00 £40 Stake Potential Returns £67.90 :hope
Bb Under/over System
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Bb Under/over System
Good Luck with these today, my email by the way is [email protected]