CzechPunter

Roberto Carballes Baena to beat Dominik Koepfer at 1.57 with Bet365
RCB has been very fine so far this season, not excellent, but playing on a top 50 level, and playing in Spain always brings the best out of him. Koepfer is 0-3 on clay and I haven't been impressed by him lately.

Varvara Gracheva to beat Lucia Bronzetti at 1.91 with Bet365
I've seen Gracheva's last three matches, and I think she has every chance of winning this one. She looked good even in her defeat against Yuan, and Bronzetti hasn't played for more than a month now.

Harriet Dart to beat Cristina Busca @ odds 2.75
I was going to post a bet her yesterday, and I was mad that I didn't. My initial top pick was Dart. She already upset Sasnovich in qualies coming from behind , and throttling her 7-1 in the third set tiebreak. I decided it was too risky, and didn't even bet it which was a terrible decision. I went with Medjedovic instead which turned out to be a more sure win, but I didn't care because I wanted the Dart win, and shouldn't talk myself out of it. 
Dart was training at Rafa's academy last month, and could be in the best form of her career. She made semi-finals in Romania for the first time just a couple months ago. I have posted here recently going against Busca and that was a bad decision, but I was backing Niemeier. She's a totally unreliable, and non technical player compared to Dart in my opinion.  I think a couple matches already in Madrid play in her favor against Busca who has never made it out of the first round here. She did play tight three sets vs Masarova Rd1 last time, but I am throwing that out the window because Masarova is another hot/cold player, and have no idea what happened in that match. It was very windy in Madrid yesterday, and Dart double faulted 4 times in the first set, and only once there on. I find that to be decent enough to rely on. I don't think Busca has a good serve, and Dart could capitalize on it if it's windy again. She also hits the ball pretty hard, and it might be tricky for Busca to hit her normal great shots. 
The only caviat I have with this.. For some reason if Vekic beats Siegemund. I might stay away from Dart because I'm on the wrong player.. But if Siegemund wins.. I'm going to risk it. In my opinion Harriet has atleast a 50% chance to win the match. So I haven't placed this yet, but if Laura wins. I'm going to be aggressive. Good luck guys, and I apologize in advance if it loses.. This is my best information. I also think Nakashima beats Bagnis, but the odds are not nearly as good and I don't fully trust that bet. 
I know that Dart is trending right now, and has won last two matches at big odds. This would not be a surprise if that continues, and the linesmen are wrong once again. 
Update: Being that Vekic is currently winning her match. Next up on the same court is Dart/Busca. I think it's going to be a great match. I am not going to bet Dart Pre-match if Donna wins as I've stated. I do believe that Dart has a legitimate chance either way, but I've already told myself that if Vekic wins.. Then I may be wrong about the Dart match, and I'm going to look for something else. 
Update #2: I am watching the Vekic match now, and she is playing well. I am also watching Shevchenko/Rinderkech. I am surprised with the quality of Arthur today. There is alot of people cheering for him. As it turns out Shevchenko is also getting some crowd support. I think this a higher anticipated match than I expected. 

Varvara Gracheva to beat Lucia Bronzetti at 1.91 with Bet365
I've seen Gracheva's last three matches, and I think she has every chance of winning this one. She looked good even in her defeat against Yuan, and Bronzetti hasn't played for more than a month now.

Varvara Gracheva to beat Lucia Bronzetti at 1.91 with Bet365
I've seen Gracheva's last three matches, and I think she has every chance of winning this one. She looked good even in her defeat against Yuan, and Bronzetti hasn't played for more than a month now.

popped another one.. This was excellent.. I didn't bet on her but was really tempted to do it.. Great information.. I look forward to see what you have for tomorrow's qualies. There is so many options to choose from. I also think it's cool that you are specializing in women's tennis. This was a perfect tip because the odds on Errani must have been huge after losing the first set. 
I was at the casino playing blackjack during the match.. so I had no idea what was going on. 

I am watching the Tirante - Droguet match in Madrid. 
I've never seen this guy before. He's 23 years old from Argentina 6'1. He hits the ball pretty huge, and seems like a good clay player. He has a fairly big following of fans cheering him. Next match he plays Lukas Klein. Klein won easily in the first round but never advanced past R2 qualifications in Madrid. Klein is 26 years old, and has a good amount of experience on clay courts.  
Was surprised to see Tirante ranked ATP 90 holds the higher ranking than Klein. I have seen Tirante's name before, but never really seen his matches. I was going to set the betting line as Klein being the favorite, and I'm still going to do that.  I will say Klein -145. Let's see how close it is. As for who's going to win.. I would have to see Klein play his match in Madrid also. Because I have not seen him on clay that I recall or in the last 3-4 months either. 

Sara Errani to beat Julia Riera at 2.00 with William Hill
Errani isn't necessarily the better player of the two, but Riera played the finals in Chiasso yesterday, and playing against Errani after not having much rest and traveling is hardly ideal.

Sara Errani to beat Julia Riera at 2.00 with William Hill
Errani isn't necessarily the better player of the two, but Riera played the finals in Chiasso yesterday, and playing against Errani after not having much rest and traveling is hardly ideal.

Excellent analysis guys! Swiatek is definitely overhyped against players that can hit big - not many out there, and she tends to have an incredibly easy time against the rest, but it's always worth considering going against her in those specific cases.

Excellent analysis guys! Swiatek is definitely overhyped against players that can hit big - not many out there, and she tends to have an incredibly easy time against the rest, but it's always worth considering going against her in those specific cases.

Agree about Stephens - I backed her for the tournament a couple of rounds back and she looks dialled-in which is a rare sight. Although saying that, she's currently playing a sloppy 2nd set against Linette after flaming through the 1st and the match is set to go the distance. Who knows what happens then but it's fair to say Linette is the more consistent and reliable player so my hopes won't be high.
Munich is done and Struff got the win. Typical Struff really - every now and then he goes on a tear-up and this week was one of those weeks. As you said, home conditions helped him and what also helped is he's more comfortable on clay than Fritz is - although the American is definitely improving on the surface.
Bucharest final has started and I'd have backed Navone as the younger, hungrier player - which would have been a mistake as he's just lost in straights. Maybe it's like you said and Navone ran out of gas.
Stuttgart is also done and Rybakina was an easy winner. I'd have backed her which would have been an easy decision to make after she outlasted Swiatek. As much as Rybakina's levels can fluctuate, having just beaten the best clay player in the world and beaten her pretty well and with this being a final it was hard to see her not playing well and that proved to be the case. As an aside, I didn't like the look of Swiatek at all this week but she'll still be a big favourite for RG and so there could be some good prices elsewhere. Increasingly it looks to me that she struggles when put under pressure, which seems to be happening more than it used to - as though the other players have figured out how to play her. When you steamroll through match after match you lack the practice of dealing with tight matches and that's also a factor in Swiatek looking panicky when it's not a procession for her.
Barcelona final has just started and Tsitsipas has an early break. I'm on him to win the tournament but it's far too early to say that's a done deal. I'll be surprised if there isn't more than two sets and I think there'll be plenty of fluctuations as nerves play a part. Tsitsipas is 0-10 in finals like these and Ruud has never won a tournament at this level.

I am copying my report on WTA Stuttgart that I mentioned. I think it might be helpful in the years to come if the tournament doesn't change.. The strategy would have proved very effective allowing for an easy upset bet of Swiatek at the large odds offered. I thought surely Czech Punter might take some interest. I actually saved money using the strategy because I was really confident that Vondrousova was going to win, and I matched her up with Swiatek in the finals which was another mistake. I avoided losing any money on both of them because in the back of my head.. I knew about the tournament conditions, and it just wasn't worth a punt. (Particularly on Marketa Vondrousova) I wasn't very interested betting Iga at like -400. But, I nearly had them paired up together in a parlay. Would have been a double whammy. 
There is some evidence about the the(WTA Stuttgart) tournament favoring taller players. The tournament has been played on Indoor clay since 2009, and before that was Indoor hard 1978-2008. I believe the indoor hard court tournament could have played at a similar speed, and the tournament is just designed in this way by German Organization. It's always a nice tournament in my opinion, and you typically get the best female players going there. I would compare it to Monte Carlo.. The first huge clay event of the year. 
So here is the past winners that I noted, and alot of these are the big hitters and taller women. I won't name all the winners who don't qualify, but I did notice a pattern. 
Julia Goerges won in 2011. She is 5'11 height. 
Maria Sharapova won the tournament three times in a row 2012-2014. 
Pliskova 2018
Kvitova 2019
(Additional taller players who made the finals since 2009. Sabalenka three times, Coco Vandeweghe, Mladenovic, Wozniacki, Ivanovic, and Dinara Safina). 

Ok here's my leans on tomorrow's final matches.. Maybe you guys can chime in with your opinions or if you agree with anything. 
Rouen: Stephens for me. I was leaning towards Linette in the semi-finals as a dog, but I've seen some of Stephens earlier in the tournament, and I knew that I would probably not go against her for the duration of the tournament. Now that she is in the finals.. that logic still holds. I am not tempted to bet her much, but I will include her in some parlay potentially for lower stakes. 
Munich: I saw Fritz in the quarterfinals, and he was playing extremely well. I had backed him to beat Garin, and I imagine this was a comfortable win. I do think Struff is tougher competition especially on home soil, but I am still leaning Fritz to win the match with low confidence. 
Bucharest: I have not watched these matches, but I know that Fucsovics and Navone have both been dominating. It feels like a home tournament for Marton. I wonder if Navone has run out of gas but his clay court runs have been impressive. He is clearly skilled, and is a nice competitor. I have lean with Fucsovics low confidence.
Stuttgart: I have backed Kostyuk in the quarterfinals, and liked her odds in R16 also vs Zheng.. This has been my primary tournament of focus, and wrote extensive analysis in another forum regarding the court conditions in Stuttgart favoring taller players. That proved true in the semi-finals when both underdogs won at nice odds. I predicted Vondrousova to beat Kostyuk there, but was lucky enough to stay away from betting Marketa. I have lean on Rybakina to win the match with low confidence. 
Barcelona: One of the few European cities I've visited, and had a great time. I have watched some of these matches but not either of the semi-finals. I have sneaky feeling that Ruud would like some revenge clearly from Monte Carlo Final. This is not match I feel good about betting, and have no real opinion as to who will win.. I do think this is the most exciting match out of the five tournaments, and would love to have a bet. Unfortunately, it feels like I'm doomed to lose with whoever I select.
☝️
 

Kristina Mladenovic to beat Varvara Lepchenko at 2.50 with Bet365
I'd be quite surprised not to see these odds drop come morning. Mladenovic has finally got a couple of results together, and she looked well above her struggles against Sebov. I didn't see her against Jones, but it's a big win on paper, and I don't see where this favoritism for Lepchenko is coming from.

Yeah, I'm not that keen on her today, although I'm not sure why the odds have moved *so much* against her.

solid .. looked ez on the scoreline.. great pick. I never heard of the person Mladenovic is playing tomorrow but it looks like money was coming in Kristina's opponent.. little bit scary to bet her again, but the line did catch my eye.. I'll probably pass unless you know something about the match.. I felt like you were fading Lepchenko in the last match.

Kristina Mladenovic to beat Varvara Lepchenko at 2.50 with Bet365
I'd be quite surprised not to see these odds drop come morning. Mladenovic has finally got a couple of results together, and she looked well above her struggles against Sebov. I didn't see her against Jones, but it's a big win on paper, and I don't see where this favoritism for Lepchenko is coming from.

Aryna Sabalenka to beat Paula Badosa at 1.36 with Unibet
Rough start to the week for me, but I still don't trust Badosa at all. The scoreline she got against Shnaider was a fair bit misleading imo, and this will be a big step up in terms of quality.

Cirstea to beat Zheng - 3.2 on Betfair
Zheng has been terrible since the AO, beating only very out of form players. Whether it's pressure, or hiding an injury, or just loss of form which happens, I can't see why she is 1.45 against a decent Cirstea.

Billie Jean King Cup
Boulter to beat Parry 10/11

6 break points and 2 match points and somehow he fails to win the second set. Sinner has to win 1 point in any of those 8. 

Should be very good tennis today in Monte Carlo.
For me I like all 4 matches. Tsitsipas likes the conditions and I think he gets the better of Khachanov.
I think Djokovic will be seriously motivated against De Minaur (wanting revenge for earlier season defeat). Price is not great but I will include him in a small multiplier.
Both Rune and Humbert had long tough matches yesterday. Humbert finished quite late last night, while Rune had a tough match with DImitrov. I don't think either will recover fully for today, and both will be a little flat. So In both matches I am taking the opponents (Sinner and Ruud) to win in straight sets. Ruud 8 to 10 and Sinner 4 to 10.
Gives a 4 legged bet odds of 4.2 which is OK. Not going crazy ... just a little incentive to keep some interest.

Hubert Hurkacz to beat Casper Ruud at 2.75 with Bet365
Ruud is a bit overhyped at the moment, yet he still lost to Martinez of all people. This should have a nice chance at such odds.

Hubert Hurkacz to beat Casper Ruud at 2.75 with Bet365
Ruud is a bit overhyped at the moment, yet he still lost to Martinez of all people. This should have a nice chance at such odds.