Shipsupstreets

Re: Ships is leaving us That's the season done and I just wanted to register my thanks to everyone for the kind comments, and for the hundreds of punters who've made this such a great place to be in the past decade. It's the right time for me to call it quits after a very decent year, with Telford's last-day title win producing some very decent returns on the anteposts, to add to a season of excellent match betting. Anyone who kept an eye on the antepost threads will know how well things went. Even the odds compiler for one of the bookies was tweeting about the fun he'd had backing Telford, Eastleigh, Hemel and Chorley - he should know, as I rogered his company mightily this season by backing them! I'm not done with football betting totally - I'll still be spread betting, but I really can't expect the non-league fixed odds to produce the same returns they have. Successful gambling is generally a solitary business, in that the starting point is taking sole responsibility for your own bets, but PL proves that collective information and discussion is incredibly important in the decision-making process - the opinions and insights here, generated by scores of different punters, have been essential to what has been an amazing ten seasons. So a massive thanks to everyone here for their help and support over the years.

Ryman Premier There is certainly no Margate this year as it is 6/1 the field in the Ryman Premier. Staines were put at 16/1 on the opening show, but that didn’t last long and they are now 7/1 with William Hill. I still think that is worth taking. They struggled in the Conference South last season, but Nicky Forster had a positive effect when he took over and he has rebuilt the squad nicely as they look to bounce back at the first time of asking. The main bet though has to be Dulwich Hamlet. Now Maidstone and Margate are out of the way they look in good shape to go on and win the league. They managed to make it into the play-offs last term, but as per the season before they faded badly towards the end of the season. If they can avoid that this time around they have to be bang in there, as Gavin Rose has built another solid squad. Of the bigger prices, Billericay, Kingstonian and Hampton all make some sort of appeal, but for the moment I am happy to stick with Staines and Dulwich. Evo-Stik Northern Premier BetVictor were also first up on this division and again they were filled in on a team who have become favourites. Salford opened up at 10/1, but are now only 7/2! They are easily the most likely winners, but at those odds I can’t really tip them up as a single anymore and they are ones for the multiple bets. You can make claims for the next few in the betting, but I am going to tip up Hyde at 16/1. Given they have only won a handful of games of football in the last couple of seasons that might sound odd, but getting Gary Lowe back in as boss looks a very good move. Lowe’s return helped improve the side in the backend of last season and now that he has had a summer to get his team sorted, they look in good shape. They have had a solid pre-season and should be capable of going well. Evo-Stik Southern Premier Poole blew the league big time last season and a lot will depend on how they get over that this season, but they should be capable of going close again. Merthyr Tydfil have been the team for money in this league and they, along with fellow promoted side Kettering, should go well. The two I am backing though are St Neots Town and Hungerford Town. I backed St Neots last year and was hoping for a bit better than they showed. It was still a decent effort though and they should be looking to improve on that this time around. Hungerford have a bit of cash to spend and again have been quietly improving with each season, so this time around they should be in the play-off hunt at the very least.

National League North AFC Fylde may be a lot shorter than the 28/1 I tipped them up at last year to win the division, but they are still worth backing at 11/2. They are well funded and look to have strengthened over the summer. Along with Barrow they pulled a fair way clear of the rest and it is hard to see how any of last season’s clubs can match them. Having said that, there are a couple more sides who are worth backing. Stockport were double figures when betting started on the division, but are now into 15/2. A club of their size should not be in this division, but they haven’t got anywhere close to getting out of it so far. I think this season will be different though, and they have got a good manger in Neil Young who has got a good looking squad together. They seem to be really going for it this season and I would be surprised if they didn’t get involved. Another team who seem to be going for promotion are Solihull Moors. I tipped them up a couple of years ago and they gave me a good run for my money: they even topped the league for a while before fading. Last season they were a solid mid-table side, but this season they should do much better. Marcus Bignot has made some eye-catching signings and even though they have lost Omar Bogle’s goals, I don’t think that will be too much of a blow. The 12/1 with Skybet and Ladbrokes is worth taking. Out of the relegated sides, I think Nuneaton could go best. I like Kevin Wilson as a manger and I am a bit surprised Alfreton and Telford are shorter than them in the betting. I think FCUM might need a season at this level to find their feet, although they will be well supported. Harrogate have the money, but the manager (the chairman’s son) should have been sacked years ago as he isn’t up to the job. Brackley should have a better season than last time now they are spending a bit more money again, and should probably be a tad shorter than 50/1. One team I did back at 50/1 when the betting came out was Gainsborough Trinity. They are only 28s now and I am not going to put them up as a tip, but they have a really strong looking strike-force and they might be capable of good effort this season. National League South Last year Ebbsfleet were costly favourites for a lot of people as they failed to even make the play-offs. They tried changing the manager half way during the season and Jamie Day made some top signings, but they failed to gel and they ended up getting nowhere near the play-offs. Crazily, Day was sacked at the end of the season and instead Daryl McMahon takes over in his first managerial post. They obviously have a decent squad and there will be plenty of money to spend if needed during the season. The issue I have though is that I would rather they had a proven manager at the helm and the players will have needed to have gelled a hell of a lot better than they did last season. The other problem is that they aren’t the only ones with money and it looks a pretty competitive division. Havant and Waterlooville, Margate and Whitehawk are all available at 9/1 and are behind Ebbsfleet in the betting. I must admit I was tempted to back all three as I like the chances of all of them. Whitehawk have got a strong team again, although there has been the odd suggestion that the money man behind them is going to pull out. I am not sure how true that is, although it is a bit worrying that they only had 12 named players playing against Crawley on Saturday. Having said that they had some strong players in that starting line-up and they won the game. I am going to leave them for now though and maybe add them later in the season. I just favour Havant over Margate. Havant had a very good season last time and I think they look primed to build on that, and their strike force looks capable of scoring plenty of goals. They should be in contention for the title. Margate were the bookmakers’ friend last season as they were backed into odds on to win the Ryman Premier. Although they went up via the play-offs, you have to say they disappointed in not at least pushing Maidstone closer than they did. Based on that you might find it strange why I want to back them to go up again, but I think Terry Brown has got rid of the deadwood over the summer and has signed players who are too good for this level. It is amazing how much money there is being spent in this league this term and that is one of the reasons Ebbsfleet shouldn’t be as short as they are in the betting. Maidenhead are 20/1, and that is the price I thought they should be so I am not going to tip them up as such, but Betway went a crazy 80/1 which I did take advantage of. Getting Alan Devonshire in as manager was a statement of intent and, although they don’t have the cash others have in the division, he has made some shrewd signings and they have every chance of being in contention for a play-off place.

National League There always seems to be a change to the name of the league and this season is the biggest one yet as the Conference has been rebranded (rather pointlessly in my view) and it is now known as the National League. Let’s start with the team I think are going to be going up as Champions. I usually start fancying one team for the title around the beginning of April and that team this time around was Eastleigh. They remind me a lot of Fleetwood. A small team who are well funded and who made the play-offs in their first season in the division. Fleetwood were well beaten by AFC Wimbledon and Eastleigh were comfortably seen off by Grimsby last term. The year after Fleetwood were fairly easy winners of the title and although I doubt Eastleigh have a Jamie Vardy lurking in their ranks, I really do think they can repeat what Fleetwood did. Last season I made plenty opposing Eastleigh away from home during the first half of the season as they really struggled. However in the 2nd half of the season their away form massively improved as they got to grips with the league. If they can perform like that over the whole season then that should see them with enough points to land the title. Their home form dipped a little after being pretty much unbeatable for a fair part of the season, but it provided a solid base. They have signed well over the summer to add to an already strong team and I find it pretty hard to see how they cannot improve on what they achieved last season. Fleetwood needed a year at this level (as most clubs do whichever league they have come from) and Eastleigh clearly did as well. I think there are very few teams who can win the league this season and on that basis I think they are a very solid e/w bet at 8/1 (general) as I would be surprised if they finished outside the first three. I was planning on having a lumpy win single on Eastleigh, but one of the reasons why I have gone e/w way is because I have begun to fancy Grimsby more and more. I have never fancied Grimsby to win the league and it may seem odd to fancy them this time around, given the poor record of play-off final losers in their next season at this level, but there are reasons to think this could be the year that they finally get out of the division. To help get over the upset of losing at Wembley, Grimsby fans have given more than £100k to the club to spend on players. That is a huge amount and how can it not lift the players to want to do well for the fans who have helped play their wages. They have lost a couple of vital players from last season and I must admit I am not sure that £50k signee Omar Bogle is up to making the step up, but they have added well to the squad. They have also been superb in pre-season. Now I am not one to get carried away with pre-season form as it doesn’t mean an awful lot in the grand scheme of things, but in this case I think it is fairly important as it proves the players are in the right frame of mind after play-off heartache in May. They have tended to not be quite good enough to win the title in the last few seasons, but I think they are in the best position they have ever been and they have to be the savers at 5/1. T ranmere are also at the head of the market and they have done well to get Gray Brabin in as manager as he knows the league well, which I always think is crucial. He has got some decent players in as well and I do think they can reach the play-offs, but given Bristol Rovers couldn’t even win the title last season I find it hard to see how a smaller club like Tranmere can. It was Rovers’ slow start which stopped them and it wouldn’t be a surprise if it took Tranmere a while to acclimatise. It is so hard for relegated teams to go up at the first time of asking and if Tranmere are to do it I think it will be via the play-offs. Being a Gloucester City fan I have been desperate for Cheltenham to be relegated back to non-league for years, so naturally I was happy with their relegation. The only snag is I now have to think about them as a punting prospect and thus have to forget about me wanting to lose every game. With that in mind I actually think they might do OK this season and could sneak into the play-offs. Gary Johnson hasn’t been in the league for a while, but he has won the division before and he has made some solid signings. However the same comments for Tranmere apply here and, as Cheltenham are an even smaller club, I struggle to see them doing any better than the play-offs and they are more likely to just miss out. The other Gloucestershire club in the division, Forest Green, are in single figures yet again to win the division, but they have struggled to put money into a proper title bid. They did reach the play-offs last season, however they never really looked like beating Bristol Rovers. I am not overly enthused by the players they have signed and I just think they will be found lacking again. I am not sure they have the right man in charge either, although he does now have a season at this level under his belt. They can go well again, but I just can’t see them winning it. Wrexham are the other team near the head of the betting and they have done well in getting Gary Mills in as manager. I was impressed with what he did at Gateshead and he knows the league very well. I can’t help thinking he will need another season to gain promotion though and they might well be the team I end up backing this time next year. Past these six, it is pretty hard to see any of the others being capable of winning the division. Woking gave us a great run for our money at big odds last season and really should have been in the play-offs. Gary Hill might well be able to find a bit more improvement, but it is hard to see how they can improve enough to get anywhere near a title bid. Barrow just won the Conference North last season and have money, but they haven’t made any eye-catching signings and I don’t fancy them at all. I can’t see Gateshead doing much now Gary Mills has left and Halifax look a shadow of the side they have been the last two seasons and they might struggle to get into the top half. Lincoln have signed well and although the manager is unproven they might well do better than their odds suggest. I think the same can be said about Aldershot and I like the players they have added. Consistency has been their big problem since being back in the division, but if that can be fixed then they might be capable of being in and around the play-offs. Chester could improve under Steve Burr, and Bromley could end up being the best of the promoted sides. They have signed well and usually one of the promoted teams end up doing very well so it could be them. Bet 365 have a handicap market and I think it is worth taking Eastleigh with a +4 start and Aldershot with a +23 start. Betway have a “to finish in the bottom 4” market and it looks competitive. If I had to name three I think will go down it would be Welling, Altrincham and Southport. None of them offer much value though so I will take a couple of chances of finding the fourth team. Braintree could be in for a season of struggle now Alan Devonshire has left and they are a team who have really been punching above their weight being in the division. Their pitch is always waterlogged as well and they could easily have a busy last couple of months to the season if the weather is against them. Their squad doesn’t look that strong either and they look a fair price at 11/4. The other team worth backing are Torquay. That might sound surprising, but they nearly went out of business over the summer and their manager Paul Cox has admitted he has a full-time team on part-time wages. I do like Paul Cox as a manger and he might well be able to see them safe, but with a young squad and little money to strengthen, they could well be in for a long season. At 7/2 they are certainly worth an interest.