vikki37

We are looking to start season 2 on 21st November after the International Break and run again for 8 weeks.
Any players wishing to join in please post here.  We have around 10 places available due to eliminations from the current season.  If you are an eliminated player you need to reapply.   Players will join in Division 7 or 8. 
If any current players do not wish to continue next season please let me know, otherwise you'll automatically be allocated your new Division based on your current finishing position.

1649 result: Indianapolis won 34-17. Won £170
Profit to date £ £489.90

1.5pts accy - Jamie Jones (-1.5 frames) to beat D.Dale / Over 8.5 frames (Guodong Vs Davis) / M.White - 8/1 bet365

Welcome Charliepie, 
yeah, bigger picture things are going well. I'm not sure on Dale today as Jak Jones is hitting abit of form so I'm going to leave that one alone. Filipiak has been pretty awful recently so I also think he will struggle. I think McManus is overpriced at 2/1. McManus not only has a good record against Maguire (won the last 4 in a row) but he also has the luxury of already having played a match (Maguire's opponent withdrew) 
The other I like is Peifan to beat Duane Jones. Jones only managed one 50+ break in his win over Taylor whilst Peifan caught the eye beating Gary Wilson. He scored 2 centuries and 3 50+ breaks and was on fire in that match
4pts P.Lei to beat D.Jones 5/4 paddypower
2.5pts A.McManus to beat S.Maguire 2/1 bet365
1pt accy - Lei / McManus / oer 7.5 frames Guodong Vs M.Davis - 11/1 bet365

Maybe the results are bad because it’s only the tournament qualifiers. Players are less known and may be less motivated , But you are very efficient on the snooker, the winning bets will arrive.
I’m going to open a thread soon, and I’m going to follow you regularly because your analysis is very good

Day 3 picks :
1pt E/W G.Clemens to win WS3 60/1 bet365 (2 places, 1/2)
1pt E/W J. De Sousa to win WS3 18/1 bet365 (2 places, 1/2)
1pt E/W K.Ratajski to win WS3 22/1 betfair (4 places, 1/4)
1pt E/W D.Heta to win WS3 33/1 betfair (4 places, 1/4)
1pt E/W D.Gurney to win WS3 66/1 betfair (4 places, 1/4)
1pt E/W J. Cullen to win WS3 22/1 paddypower (4 places, 1/4)
0.5pts E/W C.Rydz to win WS3 300/1 bet365 (2 places, 1/4)

I must admit that I'm pretty shocked how bad Doherty was. Perhaps it's bad luck me betting on these clowns. I'll keep on going. The winners will come back soon. This event feels abit "meh!" and the quality so far, when you compare it to last week, is night and day. 
The main bit of value I can see tomorrow is Oliver Lines to beat Saengkham. Oliver Lines was a player I wanted to follow in his last event but he was kicked out because his dad had caught Covid. He has beaten Saengkham in the last two head-2-heads and infact the last win was just a month ago. Infact, I think I tipped it up. 
I'll take a couple of accys too. Small outlay for potentially decent results to get some of these points back
4pts O.Lines to beat N.Saengkham 7/4 paddypower
1pt accy - N.Bond(+2.5 frames) / Yuelong(-2.5 frames) / D.Grace(-1.5 frames) / O.Lines(+1.5 frames) 12/1 paddypower (*money back if one leg loses)
0.5pt accy - Junxu / O.Lines / Bond 28/1 paddypower

German Masters bets -20.50pts
Snooker 2020 bets +207.5pts

Welcome to the forum, Heisenberg68. I'm sorry you happen to join the day I pick three shockers. It can only get better from here. Just the one match interests me today/tonight and that's Ken Doherty against Wenbo. Wenbo has won the last two between these two but both have gone to a deciding frame. The main reason for the bet though is Ken Doherty's recent form. He looked really good at the Championship League finals and really should have made the final. He beat Higgins 3-0 and then kinda bottled it against Perry after going 2-0 up. With no pressure here, I expect him to get close to Wenbo and have every chance of winning.
5.5pts K.Doherty (+2.5 frames) to beat L.Wenbo 8/11 willhill
2pts K.Doherty to beat L.Wenbo 5/2 betfred
German Masters bets -13pts
Snooker 2020 bets +215pts

1646 result: Dodin won 1-6, 6-4, 6-2. Won £85.71
Profit to date £1109.90

1645 result: 1-1. Won £80
Profit to date £1024.19

1644 result: MITHRAS 1st. £406.25
Profit to date £944.19

1pt E/W D.Petersen to win WS1 16/1 betfair
1pt E/W De Sousa to win WS1 25/1 paddypower
1pt E/W D.Heta to win WS1 50/1 bet365
-----------------------------------------------------
0.5pts E/W G.Clemens to win WS1 66/1 bet365
0.5pts E/W S.Whitlock to win WS1 100/1 bet365
-----------------------------------------------------
0.25pts E/W R.Smith to win WS1 200/1 skybet
0.25pts E/W C.Rydz to win WS1 300/1 bet365

 

The only bet I like the look of this afternoon is Donaldson to beat Honghao with a -1.5 handicap. First to 4, you'd expect Donaldson to take control of that match. He is playing some nice stuff recently and is the only person to have pushed Mark Allen as he went on to beat Ronnie, Trump & Robertson. Donaldson should have beaten Allen 4-2 in his previous match and so you'd have to favour him for this.
In the later matches, i'll take a couple of outsiders. Vafaei has been playing some nice stuff again and I never feel comfortable betting on Barry Hawkins. Ian Burns has looked pretty poor to me as of late and I'll take Lilley to cause an upset there.
2.30pm:
5pts S.Donaldson (-1.5 frames) to beat L.Honghao 4/5 paddypower
7pm :
4pts H.Vafaei to beat B.Hawkins 7/4 bet365
4pts D.Lilley to beat I.Burns 6/4 bet365

1642 result: Northampton lost 1-2. Lost £600
Profit to date £787.94

We've had the Summer Series and the Autumn Series and now we've got the Winter Series 5 days of Darts starting at 2pm for Day 1. The draw will be around 45mins so I will be looking at outright bets then.
I'll be very cautious with this event. I've had a shocker in these 2 events (-45pts, -26pts) and if they didn't exist I'd have been happier but I'll stick to a smaller amount of picks in these few. The Grand Slam is just around the corner and that'll be the main focus this week

This started with the Qualifiers this morning but nothing took my eye in the morning matches. I may have a few for the 2.30pm matches and most likely I'll have 1 or 2 for the 7pm matches.

All prices Bet365:
1.07 Hereford - 1pt e/w Alberto's Dream @ 8/1
Fairly consistent type who stays well and handles conditions so looks a live player here off a fair mark. A few of these have bits and pieces to prove in terms of trip, jumping and potentially give in the ground so this one looks solid and ought to go close.
1.37 Hereford - 1pt e/w Numitor @ 9/1
Shaped as if in need of the run when last seen but should be spot on now for this afternoon and looks very fairly handicapped on her novice run at Kempton two starts back. Wasn't beaten that far by some really smart types and with conditions to suit, looks a big price off a handy looking mark.
1.45 Huntingdon - 2pts win Rowland Ward @ 15/2
Really surprised by the price of this one as he looks well handicapped on his victory over a horse who has gone on to win well twice since last season and had an obvious excuse at Cheltenham when last seen in another hot contest. This mark looks lenient on those runs and if fit enough on seasonal reappearance, ought to go very close.
2.45 Huntingdon - 1pt e/w Candy Lou @ 14/1
Has fitness to prove after a break but was a promising 3rd on handicap debut when last seen and can be ridden handier now she confirmed she stays the trip well on that occasion. Was previously running okay in decent novice races she was never going to threaten in but now handicapping under suitable conditions she looks a big price.
3.15 Huntingdon - 1pt e/w Caro Des Flos @ 16/1
Another one that I think is comfortably overpriced today as you can write off its last run when returning from a break over a trip he doesn't stay. Fitness on his side now and wasn't beaten far two runs ago despite the ground being on the soft side for him. Conditions are spot on now, he's down to a good mark and surely will offer more today than he did under less than ideal conditions last time.
3.37 Hereford - 1pt e/w Giga White @ 9/1
Already been money for this one which is a shame as I'd like to be on at bigger prices but I backed it last time and it ran much better than the losing margin suggests. Is a character who can sulk in races but made eyecatching progress down the back straight at Ffos Las last time but couldn't go on in what was a real test over 2m4f on that occasion. Very much shaped like a 2 miler that day and these conditions are spot on. Has had various excuses this season and if on a going day I think can land the spoils here at a decent price.

525 Newcastle
Tefnut    255
Vive la difference  254 
Al ozzdi    253 
These 3 are quite bit clear at the top .....I could try and squeeze a couple points profit out at 4/1 13/2 10/1 ...backing all 3 but it's only 5 or 6 points so I'll take the riskier forecast route and hope for a bit of luck 
6x1pt forecasts all three 

1:45 Huntingdon, Namib Dancer (3/1). Competitive race but this one looks a really nice sort and should be well handicapped off 120. Won a penalty kick on his reappearance but did it nicely enough. Still looks awkward at the hurdles so will need to avoid big errors but looks to have a good engine. I'd prefer a bit further and a more galloping track but still backing.
 
Struggling and looked to go wrong and fell 2 out and fatally injured, very sad to see ?

1.45 Huntington, Rowland Ward 7/1
Beat Thyme White at the back end of last year with that horse going on to show strong  form after and now rated 141. It also got badly hampered when travelling well in a grade 2 earlier this year . Nice price for a horse that has the potential to be better than this mark of 129. 
2.07 Hereford , Garde La Victoire 4/1
Old boy who drops down in grade and has ran well in much stronger races than this earlier on in the year. Has ran well fresh in the past . 
 
Two singles and the double 

3 hunter chases on the Fairyhouse card tomorrow, but the last of them at 1.30 is one hell of a way to start the hunter chase season. Not only do we have the 1st and 2nd from the Cheltenham Foxhunter making their seasonal return, but we have a very promising 6yo, a promising Gordon Elliott trained runner and that's before I mention Auvergant who was 2nd off 143 in a Killarney National 3 starts back.
First of all I have to mention Aloneamongmillions ran on Sunday in a point as the form isn't mentioned in the press. It was a very impressive performance as well as he beat Staker Wallace who finished 4th at Cheltenham. You would have to think he wont run though so I am working on the basis he wont be running. He clearly is a very interesting horse with the future in mind though.
It Came To Pass put in a hell of a performance to win at Cheltneham and was clearly the best horse on the day winning by 10L. He actually gets 5lbs from Billaway here due to his jockey claiming 5lbs. That was also the 2nd time he had finished in front of Billaway having beaten him at Cork last April. It was interesting to read what Willie Mullins said about Billaway in the Racing Post yesterday as he agreed with me that he lacked the experience needed to win at Cheltenham last season. That run was only his 11th run of his career and there should be more to come from him this season. The big question is how fit either horse will be 1st up given both obviously have one target in March. This race isn't easy either and on testing ground you can't imagine either set of connections will want to bottom out their horse in November. There has been some money for Billaway already and I do prefer him out of the two. Given the yard if the support continues then that would be noteworthy.
Mighty Stowaway was purchased last season by Presenting Percy's owner and was going to be aimed at Cheltenham until it became apparent he wasn't eligible for the race. He then disappointing at Thurles in February. He made his first start for his new yard at the Galway Festival, but disappointed in a handicap. Last month he returned in a point and was hugely impressive beating his former stablemate Rewritetherules by 30L. If he puts that sort of performance here I think he is a player as we know he is fit.
Winged Leader is the progressive 6yo in the line-up. He won his first hunter chase in really good style and his trainer David Christie said after the race that they think a lot of the horse, but have wanted to take small steps at a time with him. Who knows if he would have gone to Aintree or Punchestown with him, but you can be certain the big races will surely be the target this season. He has already run in two points this term and last month he beat Jury Duty, a horse who was sent off 10/1 for the 2019 Grand National. Clearly he is regressing, but even so it was a good effort. We know he handles testing ground and he has fitness on his side.
Auvergnat goes for Bolger and O'Connor, but he was only 3rd in a point last month. Granted it was his first run since the 2019 Galway Plate, but this is no ordinary hunter chase to make his debut in. His stablemate Stand Up And Fight also runs, but he looks a shadow of the horse he promised to be. Granted he won a point on a banks course in March, but that is someway below the required level for this and he didn't show much in a handicap in August. Given Derek chooses Auvergnat he looks to be the second string.
It obviously would be no surprise if the top two in the betting won, but I think there could be value in taking them on with those with proven fitness on their side. Winged Leader looks a very promising horse and has carried on his progression from last season so he is the main bet in the race. You couldn't not be impressed with Mighty Stowaway last time and he could be up to this so I also want him onside.
Winged Leader e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365
Mighty Stowaway e/w @ 10/1 with Betfair
Up to you if you wait for Alonealongmillions to come out or not

Mark Allen wins the event. Absolute class considering he had to deal with a whingey Ronnie O'Sullivan and had to beat Ronnie, Trump and Robertson and didn't require even one deciding frame. 18/1 outright winner.
champion bets +40.50pts
Snooker 2020 bets +228pts

Kempton 2.48, Younevercall 4/1
 Been off the track for a bit but should have too much for these if fit and ready. Likes it at Kempton as well. 

A good first couple of sessions for Allen as he leads 5-4. Resume at 7pm

Well, Canada should have won. Australia should have won. What can you do? Whitlock found a way to lose against Price. Heta was always going to beat Clayton, of whom is the weak link of the Welsh side. Luckily, MVG was injured and that saw Germany through. Whitlock really let down Australia and to be honest, Hopp is letting Germany down too. Tonight's Semi-final is what most of us would have expected barring perhaps Germany.
England Vs Belgium
wales Vs Germany
Both England and Belgium look pretty average in my opinion. Cross looks pretty poor and there is probably value to be had in taking Belgium in that Semi-final. In the other, unfortunately if Max Hopp doesn't start performing it's going to be the demise of Germany. I think Clemens beats Clayton but I'm not sure of the pairings yet. I need Germany to beat Wales for any kind of outright payout here and the only bet I'll go with is Belgium to beat England
4pts Belgium to beat England 11/8 paddypower
World Cup Bets -3pts (deducting 4 outright picks)