vikki37

todays system selections

CHELTENHAM 13:50 Yala Enki 5/1 e/w 2 places

CHELTENHAM 14:25 Put The Kettle On 85/40 win

CHELTENHAM 15:00 Ballyandy 15/2 e/w 5 places

plus win trixie


CHELTENHAM 13:50 West Approach 4/1 win

CHELTENHAM 14:25 Defi Du Seuil 6/5 win

plus win double

I hate it when horses get equal scores, decided to not use my judgement and back them all. Top  

Welcome to the forum and good luck. ??

Hi Guis ?
I am new here, and I would like to open a thread to tell you about my long term project. 
to begin , i would like to say that i'm on punter lounge to learn english, because I like sport and I think it’s a good idea to speak with you. and i'm really sorry if i speak badly.  you can help me if you want and correct my language errors ?
My projects would be to take a big win  ,  minimum $10,000 and play seriously , no just for fun (see betting more as an investment). I will say that I give myself a few years to get there, until 2030.
I'm going to play on Betfair bookmaker and Lotofoot : Lotofoot is a national game in France which consists in finding the good results of a grid (7-8-12 or 14 matches). The winnings are very interesting. I use a software to reduce the price of the grids. You will understand easily. 
 
For that, there will be two steps:
=> The first step will be the construction of the bank. 
=> The second step will be the search for  big win. 
 
Construction of the bank , Step 1:
This will go on until December 2021, a year during which I will inject money into the bank every month.  I will detail the exact contents later on. A year in which I will not try to make money, but rather try not to lose money and manage it. At the end of 2021, we will take stock of the situation in order to move on to the second stage. The project will be not to rush, to learn how to manage responsibly. 
Manage Money , have big win !! , Step 2 :
Perpetuate the project. This will be the second step. So at the beginning of 2022, I'm going to look for the grail while continuing the project with seriousness. Going to get the big win could come before arriving at stage two but it's unlikely, maybe with the lotofoot 7 but not much hope. The goal will be to try to win this big prize, but not to put ourselves in financial danger and try to increase the bank to perpetuate the project until the goal is reached. If the objective is reached, another objective will be redefined.
 
My bets 
In order to give me a better chance to reach the goal, I will play where I know best. So I would go to a bookmaker to play online, on sports that will be defined later, then I would play on FDJ ( Francaise des jeux ,  It's a store that offers to play , like Ladbroke in Uk ) for the  Lotofoot . 
During the first years, during the investment period, I would play little Lotofoot for example, and especially Lotofoot 7 which would allow me to get my hands on the game and move on to phase 2 where I would try to find the Grail on LF15 ( LF15 = Grid with 15 matchs )  I use software to give me a better chance. 
Types of Bets  :
I will play in a classic way on betfair but also on Lotofoot. Lotofoot is a national game in France which consists in finding the good results of a grid (7-8-12 or 14 matches). The winnings are very interesting. 
The Sports :
As far as sports are concerned, I will go where I know.
Football big championships only
Tennis from ATP 500 But not in the 1st round
Rugby
Cricket
Snooker 
F1 / Cycling / Darts
I could play differently but only with fun stake
 
The bank :
There will be two banks, a Betfair Bank and a Lotofoot Bank. I would bet in Units. One unit equals 1$ or 1€. $ for Betfair & € for Lotofoot , but I will use Unit for you ✌️
The Book Bank and Lotofoot Bank will be fed in the same way, with the objective of reaching the end of phase 1 with $1000 in each, making a total of $2000 in total bank.
Stake
I would have 4 levels of stakes : 
☐ Fun Bets, About 1%.
☐ Double Fun Bets, Approx. 2%.
☐ Classic Bet , Approx. 4%.
☐ Mammoth Bet , About 8% stake
The Mammoth stake must remain rare!
I will review each bank every month and define my 4 levels of stakes
Bet Tracking
I use an Excel spreadsheet to keep track of my bets in order to have statistics and lots of information. 
Project summary :
A project with the main objective of winning jackpot  , On book , or Lotofoot.
A phase 1 for one year to play quietly and set up a bank which will be divided in two. One for the book and another one for Lotofoot. A 50u deposit in each bank every month until the end of 2021 to reach 2000u.
A much longer phase 2 to make the project sustainable and to make the most of it. Seek to win in the long term and hold the project until the objective is achieved .
 
Deposits : 
Year 2020
November: 400u Bank Book & 400u Bank Lotofoot
Year 2021
January: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
February: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
March: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
April: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
May: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
June: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
July: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
August: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
September: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
October: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
November: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
December: 50u Book & 50u Lotofoot
 
Bank target as at 31/12/21: 1000u Bank Book & 1000u Bank Lotofoot.
   

Well, Katie won that easily but just not enough power to finish her off and she does indeed win on points
+4pts
boxing 2020 +8.5pts

Katie Taylor is fighting again after just a handful of months from her previous fight. I think Taylor should have lost atleast one of the last 2 fights but I also think that this opponent is a step down from her previous opponent, Delfine Persoon.
I think she wins this one with ease but I still think it will go to points. Taylor is a good fighter but she doesn't pack a huge punch.

5pts K.Taylor to win Decision or Technical Decision 4/5 bet365

Greatwood hurdle 
Thyme white  299
Tegerek     297
Tough race but top 2 here are fair odds so look value bets to run well 
Thyme white 10pts ew 9/1 pp
Tegerek 10pts ew 8/1 Boyle's 

Cheltenham 1.50, Yala Enki 13/2 2nd, money back if 2nd or 3rd
Cheltenham 3.00, Ballyandy 10/1 ew 2nd
Exposed , but keeps finding and competing at a high level. Ran well the other week behind Sceau Royal and the form has been franked. Likes it here, and will appreciate the ground. Expect him to go close and might be too battle hardened for a lot of these. 

Higginson, O'Donnell and Vahedi were my possibles - matches in progress as I type.

Few more let downs yesterday. McManus 3-1 up and loses on a decider but on the bigger picture it's early days in this event and plenty of time to chalk it back. Just the one bet today and it comes in the later match. I was very tempted to back Pang Junxu on the handicap against Mark Allen. It's hard to know how Allen is feeling right now but he could well be taking this as a knockaround after his win last week. Junxu looks a hot prospect. 
The one I do like is Ben Woollaston to beat Saengkham. Olly Lines was terrible against Saengkham. He was in on multiple occasions and just let Saengkham back in. Woollaston is on a winning bit of form right now and it baffles me that he is the underdog
5pts B.Woollaston to beat N.Saengkham evens bet365
2pts B.Woollaston -1.5 frames to beat N.Saengkham 7/4 bet365

On The Blindside saves the day. 25 points profit on the day 

Never in doubt

Al dancer 3rd......well done the coole cody backers....great trends horse

1650 result: Mali won 1-0. Won £80
Profit to date £569.90

Not neglecting this thread.
A couple of weeks ago I changed the code to only get the spreads from uk books (see week 5), I also decided to upgrade the code from python 2 to 3 whilst I was at it and seem to have messed up somewhere along the line (not a pro coder, Im self taught) 
Been on it on and off for past 2 week and think I should have selections back up and running next week
Rule to self if its not broke dont mess with it

The first ‘big handicap’ of the season and one with a few very strong trends associated with it, starting with a nod to experience. All of the last 12 winners of this race have had at least two runs at this venue and all but one of those have had at least five chase runs. That’s a massive black mark in the column of ante-post favourite, Saint Sonnet, who would not only become the first five-year-old to win the race since Caid Du Berlais in 2014, but has only had three runs over fences in his life so far. Combine that with the abysmal record of favourites over the past decade (0/10) and this well-fancied, unexposed sort comes out as one of the worst value horses you could think of in terms of ticking the trends boxes.

His yard, however, is without doubt the best source of winners and placed horses in the past decade. Nicholls has not only saddled two of the last eight winners, but he’s also trained a placed horse in four of the last six years that he hasn’t won the race. Saint Sonnet still has to be respected as a result, as does the stable’s other runner, Brelan D’As, who was an agonisingly close second in the race last year. Two other yards have tasted success more than once in recent history, they are Jonjo O’Neill (2013 & 2016) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008, 2010 & 2017). The first named saddles Sky Pirate and the latter has Al Dancer representing his local yard this year.

When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last 12 renewals. No runner aged older than nine has won this since 1975, so the ten-year-old Aso is well up against it on the trends, while the record of five-year-olds is poor, with only one winner since the turn of the millennium. Six-year-olds have won the race four times since 2000, but recently, it’s seven, eight or nine-year-olds who have dominated – 15 of the 20 winners have come from that age band.

The next trend is related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 139 and 148. This accounts for nine of the last twelve winners, with only Al Ferof, Taquin Du Seuil and Splash Of Ginge having defied this stat, the first two higher and the last named lower. In terms of this year’s field it’s a negative for the top seven horses in racecard order and the bottom three – interestingly, only seven horses fall into this bracket this year: Spiritofthegames, Saint Sonnet, Domaine De L’Isle, Brelan D’As, Kauto Riko, Fidux and Pinson Du Rheu.

Even though the weights can depend on the quality of those entered, it can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this. Since 2000 only Our Vic, Al Ferof and Taquin Du Seuil have carried more than 11st 3lb to victory, so combined with the likely soft ground, this suggests that all the horses above Spiritofthegames could have that count against them. 

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and even though favourites aren’t the ones to be with historically, this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a really big price. In fact, eight of the last ten winners were sent off at an SP of 14/1 or less with Splash Of Ginge (25/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. The likes of Simply the Betts, Mister Fisher, Siruh Du Lac, Al Dancer, Slate House and Spiritofthegames are currently available at odds between five and ten to one.
Shortlist:

BRELAN D’AS – 8/8
Sky Pirate – 7/8
Al Dancer – 6/8

Conclusion

Taking all things into account, only one of the contenders match all eight of the key trends and it’s no surprise that he’s trained by Paul Nicholls, who has a sensational record in this. However, what is the surprise is that it’s not his 4/1 favourite, Saint Sonnet, but his 14/1 chance, BRELAN D’AS. He was an agonisingly close second in the race last year from a 5lb lower mark but even though he’s a bit higher in the weights this year, he’ll actually carry 1lb less in physical weight. This 2m4f trip and the likely soft ground combine to form his ideal conditions and his best efforts have come at this track in big handicaps previously, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t put in another big run here. He was still going well off this mark in the Caspian Caviar when a bad error three out ended his challenge, so given some solid jumping and the brilliant form of his stable, he could go close.
Sky Pirate misses out on the full house of trends by just one, spookily reminiscent of his racing career, where second place, more often than not, is the order of the day. He often travels sweetly into his races, looking all over the winner, only to find absolutely nothing when push comes to shove – again the case on his latest outing when second at Wetherby behind the well-handicapped Cool Mix – so don’t be surprised to see his jockey motionless turning for home, before getting very animated for a short time with little response from the horse. However, even though we can bash the horse, he’s usually a good jumper, is very consistent and with just 10st 2lb on his back, could certainly place.

With six contenders level on six out of eight trends boxes ticked, we have to make a choice on who is the best of those to complete our shortlist and it’s a close race between Spiritofthegames, who is one of the most consistent handicappers at this level that you will ever see, and Al Dancer, who spent most of his novice season over fences running crackers at Graded level and embarks on his second season chasing with a first run in a handicap over the larger obstacles. While Spiritofthegames is a proven commodity in races like this and often goes well fresh, he was pulled up in this last year, so I’ll go with the potential of Al Dancer, who beat a good horse in Master Tommytucker at newton Abbot over 2m5f, while giving 6lb to that rival, who won in serious style at Huntingdon on Tuesday. On that evidence, a mark of 154 given to Al Dancer could well be lenient and if Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge can avoid jumping errors, his class should take him a long way with race fitness assured.

Still sticking with mister fisher and al dancer 5pts ew at 5/1 and 9/1 respectively 

Unplaced
3rd at 14/1
1st @ 9/1
2nd @ 5/1
Unplaced
2nd @ 10/1
3rd @ 14/1
 
Bit frustrating but certainly can't complain. 

1230 Cheltenham
#1 Duffle Coat for Gordon Elliott being ridden today by Robbie Power is 3 from 3 going into this contest latest success was at Wetherby on the 30th October winning by 8 lengths that over 2 miles having jumped off as the favourite, #2 Adagio comes in seeking a hat trick latest win at Warwick over 2 miles winning by 7.5 lengths prior to that this horse won 3 races on the flat in France with the last of those being at Clairefontaine, #6 Hell Red has had 2 starts one finishing 2nd at Auteuil and a winner performance at Chepstow running for the on fire combination of Paul Nichols and Harry Cobden    Selection: #6 Hell Red
1407 Uttoxeter
#1 Jammy George last seen on 25th October at Aintree finishing 5th on seasonal reappearnce finished last season with 2 wins and is off the same mark and can go well Jack Tudor takes 5lbs off, #2 Head To The Stars was last seen 8 months ago winning at Ludlow over 3m and goes up another 2f for this race Bryony Frost takes over the saddle duties on this one, #4 Dieu Vivant won last time out also at Ludlow at 16/1 in a hunter chase event and returns today with former trainer Oliver Greenall, #8 Rosmuc Relay from the Kim Bailey yard has only had 2 runs over fences finished 2nd last time out at Hereford beaten by 2 lengths back in March this should be a stiffer contest of stamina and should go well, #9 Indy Five starts for a new stable Tom Symonds having moved from David Dennis following a below par 2019 may well go close if the stable change works as showed some promise in the last run at Exeter
Selection: #1 Jammy George
1415 Cheltenham
#2 Simply The Betts has been placed in the last 5 starts winning 4 of those including the last 2 recent successes have been at Cheltenham with Gavin Sheehan climbing aboard again and is difficult to oppose, #3 Mister Fisher finished 4th last time out which was at Cheltenham having won the time prior but at Doncaster today Nico De Boinville takes the ride and could go close, #4 Al Dancer won last time out at Newton Abbot for the Twiston-Davies pairing didnt make a big impression in the top chasing races last season but the Newton Abbot race could bring a change of fortune and should be there, #7 Siruh Du Lac was unbeaten in the 2018/19 season and could be interesting to watch having changed yards to David Pipe and having a wind operation since last season which saw 2 races which resulted in 1 fall and 1 pulled up added to the form if putting that behind could be dangerous, #9 Saint Sonnet for the Nichols and Cobden pairing won 2 starts ago on a chasing debut at Catterick and followed that up by being beaten 13 lengths at Cheltenham in 7th place this horse won listed hurdle races in France    Selection: #7 Siruh Du Luc 
1525 Cheltenham
#1 Kepagge comes in 3 from 3 last season latest 2 were on heavy ground though but has had wind operation since being seen last at Doncaster and is interesting on re-appearance,  #5 Topofthecotswolds for the Twiston-Davies is a horse ive personally been following recently finished 3rd last time out at Cheltenham beaten by 11 lengths having won at Uttoxeter prior to that should hopefully make the top 3, #8 Captain Tom Cat for Dr Newland comes in having secured a hat trick of wins last month at Cheltenham under Mr Leonard who claimed 7lbs then and does again toda, #9 Shinobi from the Kim Bailey yard comes into this race of a win at Wincanton jockey changed to Ciaran Gethings for this race who won on this horse 3 starts ago  at Uttoxeter    Selection: #8 Captain Tom Cat
1540 Lingfield
#1 Judicial won this contest last year for Julie Comacho this year is 2 wins from 5 runs last seen at York in September finishing 4th beaten by 6 lengths and should go well back on the all weather surface, #2 Good Effort has won 4 in a row last 2 at Lingfield most recently was on the 4th November after a break since 1st February looks very difficult to beat, #5 On The Warpath ridden today by William Buick for Charlie Appleby finished last of 9 at Newmarket 17 lengths behind Limato in the Criterion but been off the track since then, #10 Jovial won over C&D in June most recently finished 3rd at Newmarket beaten by 1.5 lengths today Tom Marquand takes over the saddle off Ryan Moore for Sir Michael Stoute        
Selection: #5 On The Warpath
1700 Wolverhampton
#2 Plansina is a C&D winner latest being 2 starts ago on the 19th October finished 3rd on the last start 2 weeks ago could go close again with Finley Marsh taking 3lbs off again, #4 Global Style is still a maiden after 21 runs on the flat but did come 2nd last time out at Windsor over 1m that was at 20/1 in a 13 runner race could sneak into the frame if continuing on from that, #6 Josiebond won at Redcar on the 3rd November on heavy ground over 1m and prior to that finished 4th on last visit to Wolverhampton in a 7f contest the extra 2f in this race should make this horse competitive, #8 Grandstand dead heated at Wolverhampton 2 weeks ago over 1m 1/2f in a 12 runner handicap at 22/1 and Tyler Heard takes a valuble 7lbs off again like 2 weeks ago, #9 Enzo hasnt won in 11 races but did finish 2nd last time out over C&D and has blinkers applied for this race could make the frame if conitnuing that form on, #13 Van Dijk is 0 from 13 currently finished 3rd 2 weeks ago at Wolverhampton over 1m 1/2f with an apprentice on board this time Cam Hardie takes over for the ride again could make the top 3        Selection: #8 Grandstand
1900 Wolverhampton
#1 Tornado Queen is a C&D Winner latest in September 2 starts ago most recently though was a disappointing 12th at Chelmsford although will have a chance if returning to Wolverhampton form and jockey switch to David Nolan for this contest, #2 Buckingham has gone 17 races without a win did finish 2nd last time at Chelmsford 3 weeks ago beaten by short short of 2 lengths Charlie Bishop takes over from Joe Fanning who rode last time this is a big chance to break a winless streak, #3 Flying Dragon for Richard Hannon won C&D by 1 Length on 13th October that ended a 2 time unplaced streak and Sean Levey retains the ride, #5 Athimad C&D winner 2 weeks ago has gone up 3lbs for that but with Luke Morris retaining the ride can go close once again to making the top 3 , #9 Dreamseller is a C&D winner and has 3 wins from 9 starts in 2020 last of which at Musselburgh in September most recently finished 5th at the scottish venue one to consider for Tim Easterby's yard, #10 Eponina won at Leicester last time out nearly 3 weeks ago last AW start was at Chelmsford on the run before that finishing 3rd an outside chance with Theodore Ladd taking 3lbs off, #12 Critical Thinking is a 6 time course winner most recent being 2 months ago goes up in trip for this contest by 1f having finished 6th last time out and has to enter calculations at a bigger price as was only beaten by 3.5 lengths    Selection: #2 Buckingham


Sha Tin
0500 - 8 Amazing Agility   - 9th
0530 - 4 United We Stand  - 2nd
0600 - 5 Super Red Dragon  - WON 10/1
0630 - 1 Golden Four  -  8th
0700 - 3 Helaku Knight  - 11th
0735 - 1 Decisive Action  -  5th
0805 - 3 Buddies   -  WON 8/1
0835 - 12 Joyful Fortune  -  2nd
0910 - 6 Circuit Three  -  3rd
0945 - 14 Natural Storm  - 2nd

2.15 Cheltenham, Simply The Betts 9/2
2.15 Cheltenham, Siruh Du Lac 12/1 ew
2.50 Cheltenham, On The Blind Side  5/1
3.25 Cheltenham, Kepagge 6/1
Double 17/1 Cheltenham 
Siruh Du Lac has a lot going for him. I expect On The Blind Side to run a big race even though he’s known as a chaser now. Couldn’t ignore him at that price. Kepagge is open to more progress and will appreciate the rain. 
 
Edited post because Tea Clipper non runner. Single bet added with simply the Betts . It’s also effected my ew play with On The Blindside who’s now a straight win bet . 

Saturday sees the final day of the Spring Carnival in Melbourne with plenty of Group action at Sandown. In NSW the main action is at Newcastle where the million dollar Hunter is the feature. With the end of the Spring Carnival I am going to make this my final Australian preview for now. The original intention was to do them just well there was no racing in the UK, but it went well so I carried on and it made sense to cover the spring action. There will probably still be the odd tip from time to time but with the hunter chase season not too far away I want to take a break. Tomorrow I have bets in 6 races.
Sandown R5 (3.30am)
Kenya went off favourite for the 2018 Cambridgeshire, but he finished last. Clearly something was up that on what was his final start for Aidan O'Brien. He wasn't seen again until June when he went off joint favourite for a handicap at Flemington. Although he finished 10th he wasn't beaten that far and he was then spelled. He returned at Mornington at the start of the month and he looked good when making all to win. He was a G3 winner as a 2yo, finished 2nd in a G2 at Leopardstown and won the Irish Cambridgeshire. The win last time suggests he has the ability he had in Ireland still and he can land this G3 contest.
Kenya @ 7/5 with Bet365
Sandown R7 (4.45am)
The Sandown Cup is over 3200m and there are a couple I like here. Sin To Win won for the first time in a long time on Melbourne Cup day and he did it in good style. This race is tougher, but he's been in good form and is 1/1 at the trip. The fact we know he stays is a crucial one for me. The other one I like is top weight and ex-French runner San Huberto. He landed a G2 over 3000m at Chantilly in June and certainly has the class to land this contest. His first run in Australia was in the Geelong Cup and he only beat one home, but that wasn't a surprise given he was a big drifter and the trip would have been on the short side for him. He's better than he showed there and looks over priced.
Sin To Win @ 3/1 with Bet365
San Huberto e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill
Sandown R8 (5.25am)
Onto the G2 Zipping Classic next and I have to go with Future Score. I thought they might have run him in the Sandown Cup, but connections have San Huberto for that so have run him here instead. I thought he was unlucky not to win the Hotham last time. Although the winner Ashrun had to come from further back, he was able to get up some speed whereas Future Score couldn't get a run and he finished strongly once he did get a gap. If he gets a gap sooner for me he wins the race. He is the main bet, but I have to cover the favourite Avilius. At his best he is the best horse in the race and although he hasn't won for a while he has been in pretty good form for most of this prep. I'd ignore the Melbourne Cup run last time as he was always out the back, but the Caulfield Cup run was a good one as he didn't get much luck in running. I have to have him onside.
Future Score @ 4/1 with Bet365
Avilius @ 3/1 with Bet365
Sandown R9 (6.05am)
Gold Fields is better off with All Too Huiying based on their Seymour Cup 1st and 2nd last month and he then finished a fast finishing 2nd in a Listed Race on Melbourne Cup day. That came over today's trip so although he has never won over this far he is clearly capable of doing so. The other one I like is West Wind. She is coming back down in trip, but she is in flying form at the moment having won her last 3. I thought she was especially impressive at Moonee Valley last time and the 2nd has won a G2 since so the form is rock solid. If she copes with the drop down in trip she has a big chance for me.
Gold Fields @ 5/1 with Bet365
West Wind @ 13/2 with Bet365
Newcastle R4 (3.50am)
Yes he has top weight in this BM72, but he does look a class above. He was racing in the winter and running well enough on heavy tracks, but his best form is on good tracks. His 1st run of the prep was his first start on a dry track for a while and he ran a very good 4th over 1000m. He didn't get a clear run either as he didn't get a gap until 200m out and if he gets a gap sooner he is likely to have won the race. I think he can atone her.
Superium @ 9/4 with William Hill
Newcastle R7 (5.45am) 
The feature race on the card and whilst Ranier was tempting I have gone for Trumbull instead. He was running so consistently last prep and got a deserved win when landing a Listed Race in June at Rosehill. He improved on that 1st up this prep when winning a G3 at Randwick last month. The 1st 2 pulled clear of the rest and stepping up to 1300m is going to suit as well. The draw could have been better, but on the back of that last effort I think he can land this massive prize.
Trumbull @ 9/2 with Bet365

better meeting tonight more horses in the races

AQUEDUCT £9 FRIDAY FUN NIGHT
550- Allied Invasion 4/1
745- Blackjack Davey 13/8
817- Adare 13/8 non runner 
917- Business Cycle 4/1
20p Lucky 15 bet365
Each Way Singles 
520- Split Then Double 6/1 £1ew non runner 
619- Tiltingatwindmills 8/1 50p ew 2nd 
645- Warfront Fighter 15/2 50p ew
715- Jack The Cat 16/1 50p ew non runner 
847- Arthur Kitt 16/1 50p ew non runner 
course was a wash out , think I'll swerve the East Coast courses until around April.
All bet @ bet365

1648 result: Conners 2nd. Lost £750
Profit to date £319.90

With the 1st hunter chases of the season coming yesterday at Fairyhouse I thought it was time to start this thread again. Having done this for the 1st time last season and it proving popular I will once again be updating those horses that are being aimed at the Foxhunter in March. It is one race that gets over looked when looking at Cheltenham and I always get asked questions about what horses are and aren't qualified for the race. So this is where I can keep everyone updated as to what is going on and my thoughts on the runners. Obviously any bets during the upcoming months will go here as well.
Given we have had just 3 points in the UK and the Irish season is in its early stages as well we have already seen plenty of horses hoping to line up at Cheltenham in March. Let's start with the Fairyhouse race from yesterday which featured It Came To Pass and Billaway, the first two home from last season. The former's trainer went on RacingTV before the race and said that the horse would improve a stone for the run, the ground was against him and that he is a better horse in the spring. It was no surprise he drifted in the betting and given all that I thought he ran really well as he got himself into contention before fading in the straight. As far as I am aware only William Hill have the race priced up and It Came To Pass is currently 12/1 2nd fav which seems a fair enough price to me as his run was full of promise. Billaway is currently the 8/1 market leader to reverse the form from last season. He travelled well up until just before they turned for home where he looked like he would drop out of contention, but he came back on the bridle and looked the winner until he made a right mess of the last. I'm not certain he would have won though as when he got to the winner on the run in he didn't get any closer and I think the winner had more in the tank. At this stage he is probably still the horse I would make favourite for the race as it was a promising return to action and he should still be progressive. Stand Up And Fight looked like he would be a possible winner of the Foxhunter a couple of years ago when he finished 6th in the race. Last season didn't go to plan though as he only managed to win a point over a banks course. It seems cross-country racing was going to be his thing this season, but after this win yesterday the trainer said he will stick to hunter chases now. First time blinkers might have done the trick and you would want to see them work again, but it was a personal best performance for me and if he builds on it then he will be a player come March. The 14/1 available is a fair price, but I would want to see a repeat performance before considering getting involved.
Staying in Ireland I have to mention a horse who was declared to run at Fairyhouse, but didn't turn up. Aloneamongmillions ended up running at Dromahane instead where he beat last year's 4th Staker Wallace by a very comfortable 3L. That performance clearly puts him in the Foxhunter picture and despite having only 7 runs he is already qualified. Interestingly the only time he hasn't won was when he made his debut and that came in the UK when he fell in a maiden that Road To Rome went on to win. Given what that one went on to do it would have been a fascinating contest if Aloneamongmillions had of stood up. In Ireland broke his maiden tag last month and then won 3 points last season, before winning a hunter chase at Gowran Park in pleasing style. After that race his trainer said he would be aimed at Cheltenham and clearly he has backed that up with his win on Sunday. He's 16/1 at the moment and is a fascinating contender at this stage. Staker Wallace himself is also 16/1 and having fancied him last season I wouldn't want to write him off just yet.
Onto what has been happening this side of the Irish sea. Because the pointing season was stopped last term when lockdown happened the current season started in October which given pointing has had to stop again because of lockdown was a very good move. We have also already seen 4 horses who could have serious Cheltenham claims. First to run was Maxwell's Foxhunter horse this season Jatiluwih at Bishops Court. The horse was very good over hurdles and he not surprisingly made a winning pointing debut under Will Biddick as his owner is currently injured. He clearly is a very good horse, but I wasn't impressed with his jumping and that will need to improve a lot before I even consider backing him for Cheltenham. Obviously there is scope for improvement on that front, but 14/1 wouldn't appeal on the basis of that run.
Maxwell has 3 other horses priced up. Shantou Flyer has surely had his best chance of winning the race so he looks short at 16s. I haven't seen anything about Cat Tiger going hunter chasing and he is at 20/1. Bob And Co is also 20/1 but however much the Racing Post's Tom Collins thinks he is a Cheltenham Foxhunter contender I would be amazed if he turned up at Cheltenham and Aintree will be is race. We also know that Maxwell will only run one in the race based on what he said before this year's renewal so something would need to happen to Jatiluwih for any other these to run.
In the Ladies Open on the Bishops Court card I was much more impressed with Red Indian who beat a solid yardstick in Master Baker by 50L. He looks a readymade replacement for the yards Top Wood and he looks set to be an exciting horse this season. He isn't priced up by William Hill at the moment, but he should be. Like Jatiluwih it was a good move to get him out early to get the 1st qualifying run out of the way.
At Maisemore Wishing And Hoping ran out a comfortable winner of the Mixed Open for the Hazel Hill team. Some thought he should have been aimed at Cheltenham last season, but I though the Rowley's were right to take things more slowly with him as he looked like he needed a bit more experience. It was a solid win and he jumped well in making all. You would think he will be Cheltenham bound this season.
The last meeting before lockdown number 2 was at Kimble and the Mens Open there saw another very impressive performance from a horse making their pointing debut. Porlock Bay has come over from France and was backed in the market beforehand so was fancied to win and he ended up bolting up by 20L. The race was over 2m4f and he is unproven over further so we don't yet know if he will stay the Cheltenham trip. The plan seems to be to try him over 3m next time and we will know more then, but he looks a classy horse based on this performance. Hills have him priced up at 25/1.
Pointing in the UK is set to start again once we come out of lockdown and pointing in Ireland continues. I don't have the UK hunter chase dates yet, but usually Taunton in January is the first race of the season.
NB - In his Racing Post stable tour on 16/11 Paul Nicholls has stated that Bob And Co has had a wind op and Cat Tiger will be going hunter chasing.

100 pts staked
141.68 returned
41.68 profit