vikki37

7.15 Newcastle - Be Proud - 8/1
Notable that decent claimer Oli Stammers is on Be Proud for the first time this evening. This gelding is a frequent visitor at Newcastle and often runs well here. His two career victories have come over this course and distance off marks of 54 & 62. His last two runs have been here, over 5f in October when 5th off 69 (only beaten 1 length) and then over 6f a couple of weeks ago also off 69, was beaten a good 4 lengths that day but I wouldn't take too much notice of that as 5f is his trip. He's been dropped another 2lb for that down to 67 and Stammers takes off a further 5lbs so is effectively back on a winning mark. His running style means he will probably need some luck in running but he's well drawn in 12 and should go well in a competitive race where there are plenty of consistent Newcastle performers.

Smith beats Ratajski. De Sousa goes through as does Heta. Cullen found a way to go out, missing multiple darts to get the 4th leg he needed. Elsewhere, Peter Wright went out and Price SHOULD have went out.
2pts boosted treble - Whitlock, Wade & Van Den Bergh 4/1 paddypower
1pt accy - Van Den Bergh / Whitlock / Wade / De Sousa to get the most 180s 6/1 skybet
Grand Slam bets -14pts
Darts 2020 - +46.50pts

...... which won ! ...... ?
SP 20/1
well done to the Racing Post tipster !

30 points profit returned 

1666 result: 1st.  Won £55
Profit to date £1033.99
  

1665 result: Seattle won 28-21. Won £50
Profit to date £978.99

Won +46,50u

205 ascot
Red risk  288
King of realms 285 
Espoire de guye   282 
Top 2 here look well treated still and should run well hopefully 
Red risk 7pts win 100/30 willh
King of realms 3pts win 9/1 bet365

It looks like the race distance has increased by a furlong or so in the last 2 years so I have extended my sample base to include 23/24f races.
7 out of 33 winners have had forecast odds of 8/1 or less compared to 4 from 117 with higher odds. This reduces the field from 19 to 4.
7 out of 52 came 1st or 2nd last time. This reduces the field to 2.
My favourite NH statistic, age less than 7. There have been 68 horses 7 or older and only 1 has won.
This leaves just one selection, IMPERIAL ALCAZAR. Currently available at 11/2 with 5 places available.
 
 

The big race of the weekend may well be Lostintranslation taking on Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase at Haydock but from a punting view the race which takes the eye is the Betfair Exchange Stayer’s Handicap Hurdle.
A field of 24 declared at the five day stage and with more rain forecast throughout the week the current ground conditions of soft can only go one way – a typical Haydock quagmire in store I feel.
Some big names have won this prestigious contest throughout the years including Sam Spinner and Paisley Park and this year’s weights are headed by top chaser Kalashnikov who will surely struggle at 3m if taking his chance.
The most intriguing runner in the field has to be Ronan McNally’s The Jam Man who absolutely bolted up in the Troytown Handicap Chase last time and reverts to hurdles here but off of a 14lb higher mark – he wont mind the conditions that’s for sure and with his trainer mooting earlier in the week a possible tilt at the Stayers Hurdle he would be one to have on your shortlist.
David Pipe has an excellent record in this race having won it 3 times in the last 10 with Grand Crus, Dynaste and Gevrey Chambertin and relies upon the remarkable Main Fact who has won 8 races on the bounce (5 hurdles and 3 on the level). The ground cannot be soft enough for him and although he’s yet to race beyond 2m 4f his style of running suggests he’ll even appreciate stepping up in trip as he only ever seems to get going at the finish of his races. He was some buy at a mere £6,000 out of Dianne Sayer’s stable, winning 8 of his 9 races since amassing £62,00 in prize money alone. He’s a worthy favourite and if he was to triumph here the 50/1 about him winning the Stayers Hurdle with bet 365 would look some value. Pipe also has Duc De Beauchene in the race and owned by legendary JP McManus is also very interesting. He landed a punt at the Open meeting at Cheltenham last season and although he disappointed subsequently he remains a dangerous horse off of bottom weight (he does have an alternate entry on Sunday at Uttoxeter)
Dan Skelton’s West To The Bridge comes here in good form having won at Carlisle last time but has to race off of a career high mark of 140 and that might be his undoing.
Fergal O’Brien is having a tremendous season so far and his novice Imperial Alcazar comes here as one of the well backed favourites following two novice hurdle victories last season though his best effort came when a neck runner up to chasing sensation Protektorat at Cheltenham on New Years Day . He steps up in trip and his mark looks workable for sure.
Portrush Ted is obviously a hard horse to train as he has only raced 8 times over the last 4 seasons but his record following a break of 87 days or more is  excellent (12111) He stays well and handles the mud so could be a player here.
Irish raider Relegate has raced only 3 times for Colm Murphy having been transferred from Willie Mullins’ yard and was outclassed last time. He’s 2lb lower now than when going off favourite for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last March and finishing 5th.
Olly Murphy runs two with Collooney having to prove his stamina and I K Brunel reverting back to the smaller obstacles after two runs in novice chases this Autumn. The Murphy yard seem out of sorts at the moment with a mere 2 winners from the last 45 runners so this pair are easily overlooked.
Cill Anna and Highland Hunter represent Paul Nicholls with preference for the former who ran well up to the last at Wincanton on his reappearance and will appreciate the softer ground.
Summary:- 
Main Fact is still improving and could be yet another winner of this contest for his trainer David Pipe despite running at this trip for the first time.
The best outsider may be Warren Greatrex’s Portrush Ted who has a terrific record fresh and appeals as one who could go well
Main Fact 1 point each way 7/1 Paddy Power
Portrush Ted ½ point each way 16/1 888 Sport
 
 
 

Tomorrow's single horse selection is in the 1.13 at Catterick. SHAW'S DILEMMA. One of 3 6yo, last ran 256 days ago. Available at 14/1 with BOG bookmakers.

NR & 3rd

MUCKAMORE (2.03 Market Rasen) makes his chasing debut in what looks an interesting novices’ handicap chase. An Irish point winner he ran three times in novice hurdles last season winning easily at Taunton in March at odds on. Prior to that he bumped in to two decent novices in Imperial Alcazar and Southfield Theatre. His initial mark of 125 looks fair with the only slight concern the ground which is officially good (good to soft in places). He’s only raced on soft ground so far in his short career but that’s not to say he won’t handle it well. His sire was 3rd in the Irish Derby on good to firm and won the Gran Criterium on heavy whilst on his distaff side there are good ground winners.
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is in ok form with 5 winners from his last 39 runners (he had a winner at Ffos Las this afternoon) with his son Sam in the plate.
The main danger is another fencing newcomer Dr Newland’s  Minella Encore who has yet to be out of the frame in 8 runs under rules. He’ll be fit and should run well but I’ll take a chance on the Twiston-Davies 6 year old.
1 point win @ 2/1 bet365
FIRST LORD DE CUET (1.30 Market Rasen) was heavily punted when finding one too good at Sandown last time over 2m4f and will surely appreciate the step upto 2m 7f here as he is a former Irish point winner. He’s been raised 2lb for that effort and wears first time cheek pieces here which may help him in the finish. This is a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier for the final at Cheltenham in March so you may find a few of the higher rated horses happy to just finish in the first six to qualify for that day. No such issues with First Lord De Cruet as he need to get himself up the ratings to get himself into that final.
1 point win @ 3/1 Paddy Power
Roger Varian sends three up the A1 from Newmarket to Newcastle and he can be rewarded with a treble.
DUBLIN PHAROAH (1.50) appears to have little to beat and with conditions to suit can get the treble off to a flying start despite his short odds.
TEONA (2.50) bumped into a smart one of William Haggas’ on her debut over course and distance pulling well clear of the third. She’ll be well supported so take the first early price.
LEGION ON HONOUR (4.20) hasn’t been seen since running Devious Company to 3/4l at Haydock in June and with the winner that day going on to finish runner up in two Group 2’s and now rated 104 that was a fine effort. Back in 3rd was Jadoomi who’s now rated 106, 4th Youth Spirit now rated 104 and the 5th has won twice since (91). He’s had a slight setback since but is back working well and although Archie Watson’s Colonel Faulkner will have his follower’s I’m with the Varian horse to give the stable a Wolverhampton treble.
2 point win treble @ Evs, 4/7, Evs  (5.29/1) bet365
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

2.05 Ascot 
Espoir De Guye 3/1

Ascot stage an enthralling card on Friday and here are my early thought’s :-
12.20
A no play race from a punting perspective but it’s the chase debut of Nicky Henderson’s Chantry House who has schooled excellently and despite the fact he is rated a 3lb officially inferior horse to danger Pic D’Orhy his stable will be very disappointed if he doesn’t win this. A race not to miss.
12.55
It could be Nicky Henderson’s day at the Berkshire track with TIME FLIES BY the most likely winner. A Cheltenham bumper winner he ran twice over hurdles last season with his trainer stating in a recent Racing Post stable file that he ‘does everything right and should go far’ He’ll do for me here. Paul Nicholls’ Danny Kirwan has undoubted ability and apparently needed his season re-appearance when 3rd at Aintree but he’s seven now and has yet to win a race. Kim Bailey’s The Edgar Wallace is an interesting hurdles debutant , the trainer has been in top form this season and this is the most expensive young horse he’s ever bought winning a bumper for him last season and by all accounts he jumps well.  Time Flies By is a confident selection on a day that may be dominated by the master of Seven Barrows Nicky Henderson. 
TIME FLIES BY 2 points win @ 4/5 bet365
1.30
An intriguing contest with four potentially smart lightly raced horses. Nicky Henderson called his French recruit GIPSY DE CHOISEL very nice in a recent Racing Post stable file and now in the double green colours of Messr’s Munir & Souede could be the one. Harry Fry unleashes Metier who impressed when winning at Newton Abbot 3 weeks ago whilst Paul Nicholls saddles the JP owned Nimix De Juilley, another ex French horse but without a run for 792 days (never mentioned in his recent RP stable tour) with the biggest danger to Henderson’s coming from the Tizzard horse Amarillo Sky, an expensive purchase from the Irish pointing field and a highly promising fourth to Henderson’s Dusart at Newbury when the Tizzard horses weren’t really firing. The vibes are good for Henderson’s and he’s the bet.
 
GIPSY DE CHOISEL 1 point win @ 2/1 william hill
2.05
Espoir De Guye has had a wind op since we last saw him following a lack lustre effort at the Festival last season in the Novices’ Handicap Chase. A 255 day absence doesn’t usually bother a Venetia Williams trained horse and despite racing here off of a 14lb higher mark than when winning at the course last December he should run well.
Deauville Dancer starts out for the first time for Olly Murphy having previously been trained by David Dennis and although you could arguably classify that as a trainer upgrade the Murphy yard are not really firing at the moment (despite a nice bumper winner on Tuesday). An outsider I think is worth backing is the Paul Henderson trained 11 year old DOITFORTHEVILLAGE who has tumbled down the handicap to a very low mark. Forget his latest run when his trainer stated afterwards the ground wasn’t soft enough for him, surprisingly he was dopped 6lb for that run. Rated as high as 140 only four runs ago he races here off of 129 and could be value despite been the oldest member of the 9 strong field
DOITFORTHEVILLAGE ½ point ew 16/1 bet365
2.40
BUZZ stands out here and will take some beating. Nicky Henderson’s six year old was a highly credible third in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last time at Ffos Las with Ecco some 28 lengths behind him that day and only 1lb better off here. That form looks very good now with the winner Sceau Royal winning at Wincanton and Ballyandy who placed second that day running the same position in last weekend’s  Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham even  the 5th Mario De Pail has won since. Only a pound higher here he stands out like a sore thumb. I can see him being very well backed. The opposition look weighted upto their ability and Buzz is the days nap bet.
BUZZ  3 point win @ 6/4 bet365
3.15
Dr Newland has had a good Autumn with his small string at his Worcestershire yard and can take this with MR MULDOON who won at Sedgefield on his chasing debut in a 9 runner novice event. Lack of experience is unlikely to be a problem as he has had 6 runs in Irish points and has failed to miss the frame in six outings under rules. The handicapper reacted by rising him 2lb for that run but the step up to 3m is much more to his liking and he holds a strong chance. Paul Nicholls’ Favorito Buck’s won this event two years ago and can race off of a 1lb lower mark so also comes into calculations though his last run was poor. Top weight Wandarin Star has won first time out the last two seasons and has had his wind tinkered with since last season so is another with some potential if fancied for the Kim Bailey yard.
MR MULDOON 1 point win 3/1 william hill
3.45
A tough handicap with the first show being 9/2 the field. The most interesting contender being the top weight Enqarde an ex French 6 year old having his first run for Dr Newland. The market will tell us what’s expected here no doubt.
Apple Rock flopped last time but that may have came too soon following his facile victory at Carlisle 8 days earlier and could be in with a chance despite a rise in the weights. It may be worth a speculative ew bet on Paul Henderson’s HATCHET JACK who may well have needed his well beaten 5th to Metier (runs in 2nd race) at Newton Abbot. He has some good handicap form in better company than this in the past and has dropped to a mark 10lb lower than when he was back then. He’s still a maiden and has obviously been hard to train so we’ll need a big price and small stakes but it’s that type of race!
HATCHET JACK ½ point each way 11/1 bet365
 
 
 
 
 

Cross and Anderson perform, ofcourse. I doubt Cross has hit an average like that this year. We complete the group stage tonight. Much like yesterday there are a few groups already decided. Michael Smith takes on Ratajski in the 2nd match and that will be following the De Sousa Vs Lisa Ashton match. Assuming that De Sousa wins then Ratajski will know he needs to win to go through. De Sousa will want a big win against Ashton (5-0/5-1 probably) but either way, Smith is through and will be pretty comfortable. I think a comfortable Michael Smith is dangerous though and I think he will win that match.
5pts M.Smith to beat K.Ratajski 4/5 bet365
1pt accy - Smith, Van Duijvenbode & Cullen 13/1 betfair
Grand Slam bets -17pts
Darts 2020 - +43.50pts

15p deduction estimated ( I did on exchange in the end 13% deduction there) 2nd for the place 

E/W money returns 3.50 points profit. Rule 4 applied .

Search For A Song
She has been a very good friend to this topic and indeed followed up her Irish St Leger victory again this autumn
But it was her final run of the season on Champions Day at Ascot that really excited me when attempting 2 miles for the first time ran on well to finish 2nd after being in my opinion given too much to do
However it tells me there is still a lot of stamina in the filly, and I am confident that next season she will be trained with the Cup races in mind and will be the horse to beat 

Bad run for me , but it’s doesn’t matter. The most important is to keep self control and don’t bet more . 
 
after bad run , it’s good run ??

1664 result: Shanghai won 2-1. Won £200
Profit to date £928.99

My poem wins at tidy price 10.5 taken and 3.5 place / 7-1 sp.

I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.
In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.
Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.

You are welcome. Yes, the method applies only to jump racing. I treat the 2 codes completely separately, I concentrate on the jumps from November to April and the flat from May to October.
In the 12.55 I have backed NIKAP because at the time it was the only one of the 3 that BET365 or BOYLESPORTS were offering the best odds on. These are the only bookies that I can use that offer BOG the night before racing. It was 13/2 but has now drifted out to 18/1.
I don't worry too much about the odds although I don't back anything where the forecast odds are less than 2/1.
I will continue to post selections on a daily basis, my nap and £20 daily challenge selections are also from this selection process.
I will summarise my results at the end of each month. It was very profitable last year but systems often have a short shelf life.
I now notice that BUSHYPARK is best priced 8/1 (from 16/1). I don't personally but would anybody lay this on Betfair to guarantee a profit ?