bookiebasher

Leyton Orient 4 Bolton Wunderers 0
Happy Days hey, what a result that was, I fancied that the O's would beat the Wunderers but noting that the O's hadn't won a game at home this season I kept my powder dry.
Nice to watch the Wunderers warming up, gives you a good idea of what's to come...      
One for Jodrell Bank
More chance of Jodrell Bank picking that up than his mate. I hope the lad isn't driving the coach home, hard to live that shot down when it'll be on YT, for the next 30 years.
Anyway, the game kicks off and with just 20 seconds on the clock a sloppy back pass from Baptiste puts Crellin in trouble as Johnson pounces on it only to be brought down in the box by Crellin. Without a second thought the Ref blows for a Penalty, to be honest I'm amazed that Crellin didn't get a straight Red Card.
It looked like a great start to the game, Johnson steps up, takes the shot but it's saved by Crellin, for a moment I'm wondering if I'm in an alternate reality, Crellin let's more in than the back door of a brothel. 
I'm told that at HT the Luton Manager asked the Ref why Cellin hadn't been sent off, seems the Ref thought it was a harsher punishment for the Wunderers to leave Crellin on ?
When a game starts that way you begin to wonder if the tide is running against you, but just 7 minutes later Johnson redeemed himself putting Orient 1-0 ahead.
 
 
 

Wunderers 1 Bradford 0
Well that didn't go to plan, more so when Bradford missed a Penalty, well when I say "missed" it was saved by Crellin, he's put more balls into the net than anyone else on the team this season, the fans have been howling for his head for weeks now, no doubt they'll be carrying him about on their shoulders now, but how the **** do you not score from a Penalty. I wouldn't mind if Billy Clarke had put the ball over the bar, but to see Crellin save it / get in the way of it, beggared belief, more so when Bradford got a second stab at it ? It's at times like this you get the feeling that the flux of the universe is running against you, but every dog has its day...
Those 3 points that the Wunderers bagged tonight puts them on 9 points from 9 games, that puts them up to 16th of the 24 in League 2. I can live with that, seeing as 3 teams are on 9 points, another 3 teams on 8 points, and a couple of those teams with a game in hand on Bolton.
 
We could use a good result on Saturday to take the steam out of the Wunderers valves, they play Leyton Orient, who held (no mugs) Exeter 1 -1 tonight, a win for the O's would derail the Wunderers and put us back on track, 9 points from 10 games works for me.
Not the result I'd hoped for tonight, but it's early days yet, a LOT can happen between here and Boxing Day.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Washigton looked poor against the Giants. Dallas  to win -1 @ 20/21
Falcons have Julio Jones back. Falcons fly -2.5 @ 10/11
Aaron Rogers does not do two bad games. Packers to win -3.5 @ 20/21
The chargers should see off the Jags. Chargers -7.5 @ 20/21
Superbowl runners up the 49ers have been plauged by injury. They are beginning to show signs of a return to form. 49ers +2.5 @ 10/11.
My bet £1 canadian plus £4 roll up. £30 ( all prices and spreads bet365).
Season record W7 L3 ATS profit £239.

Written Thursday October 22nd, 2020 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
This week we’ve got just our second 5-star play of the 2020 season!
The only other one was Arizona +7 against the 49ers in Week #1, a bet that easily covered since the Cards won the game straight up by a margin of four points.
Such picks rated 5 stars have done very well since I started this “Professor MJ” brand a few years ago.
That being said, I’m not suggesting to bet your house on it. You’ll never hear me talk about “the lock of the century” or “100% guaranteed winner” or any similar bull$$hit. There is always risk involved. Bet at your own risk and never bet an amount that you cannot afford to lose.
PICK #1 (5 STARS): NEW YORK JETS +13 VS BUFFALO BILLS
Wow, picking the lowly Jets as a five-star play is pretty bold, isn’t it?
Adam Gase’s team is 0-6 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this year.
Since 1985, six teams have started the season with six straight losses both SU and ATS. How did these teams fare in the remainder of their season? They went 34-24 ATS, a 58.6% win rate.
I like the Jets for many other reasons.
The rest factor is in favor of New York since the Bills are coming off a Monday night game. Also, NFL teams tend to do very well in the rematch against a division rival after losing the first meeting of the season. In this case, Buffalo won 27-17 in Week #1, which makes the Jets a good play based on this betting angle.
Finally, the Bills have been struggling a lot recently. They blew a 25-point lead against the Rams before escaping with the win, thanks to a questionable pass interference penalty on fourth down in the final drive. They got hammered 42-16 against a depleted Titans team two weeks ago.
Last week, losing 26-17 against the Chiefs may not look bad on paper, but if you watched the game you know what I’m talking about. The Bills were out of sync on offense, where Josh Allen looked more like the 2018 or 2019 version of himself. And their defense was gashed on the ground by allowing 5.3 yards per carry. This unit was supposed to be among the league’s best, but they an average of 28 points per game.
Meanwhile, Sam Darnold has a shot to be back under center. He is a big improvement over Joe Flacco, and he would finally have some weapons around him with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and maybe rookie Denzel Mims who could make his NFL debut.
Some bookies have already lowered their spread to 12, but at the time I’m making this video BetOnline still has 13. This is where I placed my bet. I really like New York to cover in this one.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -9.5 AT DENVER BRONCOS
Over the last nine meetings between these two clubs, Kansas City holds an 8-1 record ATS. If you focus on games played in Denver only, the Chiefs have beaten the spread on six consecutive occasions.
Sure, Kansas City loses one day of rest after playing the Monday nighter. But in my opinion, elite teams fare well when facing adversity. They are a well-coached team and it won’t affect them that much.
The Broncos are coming off a nice upset win in New England. Quarterback Drew Lock made two incredibly bad decisions that almost gave the game away, but he should be thankful that his defense saved the day.
Denver’s offense struggled most of the day and couldn’t score more than 18 points despite the Pats turning the ball over three times. They won’t be able to keep up with KC’s offense, who are unlikely to take them lightly, considering it’s a divisional game.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +4 VS TAMPA BAY BUCS
I feel like the public is getting overexcited following Tampa’s convincing win over the Packers. It was indeed an impressive outing where emotions were high, which makes this non-conference matchup a trap game for them.
Las Vegas is also coming off their bye week, which is always a nice advantage.
Tampa’s top three receivers (Evans-Godwin-Miller) are all likely to play, but are nursing injuries. On the defensive side of the ball, the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea for the rest of the year was a big blow and is an underrated loss for this squad. They also have three good guys on defense who are listed as questionable: LB Lavonte David and DEs Jason Pierre-Paul and William Gholston.
The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs, the Saints and the Panthers, while losing to Buffalo and New England. In other words, there wasn’t a single easy opponent (Carolina was expected to be weak, but they are off to a nice start).
I’m taking the Raiders as home underdogs here.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Seattle is coming off their bye week, while the Cards lose one day of preparation after playing the Monday night game. Arizona also had to travel on three straight weeks prior to this week, which isn’t easy.
I’m pretty sure the Seahawks remember the last time they faced Kliff Kingsbury’s squad: a 27-13 home loss in Week #16 that hurt their chances of clinching a first-round bye. Payback time!
Over the last 11 meetings between these two rivals, the road team has a 9-1-1 record ATS. Please note that the “under” was a winning bet in each of the last five matchups.
As mentioned last week, I also like to back road favorites coming off a bye week. A reminder that such teams showed a jaw-dropping 15-1-2 ATS record over four seasons (they went 1-1 last week though).
Best of luck with your plays and I’ll see you again next week!
Professor MJ
https://www.youtube.com/c/ProfessorMJ/featured
Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
FB: ProfessorMJ
www.professormj.com

Wish I'd seen this thread earlier! Still 25/1 with Betvictor though.
Taken some 30/1 with Mark Jarvis.
Welcome to the fray Yossa, it's a pity you didn't see the thread earlier, the 50/1 & the 55/1 are long gone, but 25/1 is a value bet more so the 30/1 odds.
I guess you are up to speed now on what's been said, and Thanks to the Wunderers what's been done, hopefully Cambridge U add to the misery this Saturday, but there's more to the bet than meets the casual eye, that 19 point deduction hanging over their head wouldn't open the trap door into the Vanarama Northern League.
That would drop the Wunderers into oblivion, you can't run a stadium like the "Reebok" {as most locals still call it} off the back of Vanarama attendances.
I wonder if the Bookies have taken that into account ? I'm guessing not...
As mentioned Football Ventures also own the 125 room Whites Hotel, it was part & parcel of deal when FV bought BWFC out of Administration, what a deal that was {not}. The Club and the Hotel were brought out of Administration owing more money then caused it to fall into Admin, does that make ANY sense to you ?
The FV deal went through last August, carrying a £5 Million millstone on FV's back. I guess that the Hotel was doing reasonably well prior to Covid paying us all a visit.
Can you imagine how quick that milk went sour, within a matter of a few months of taking on the Club and the Hotel they get hit with Covid, the turnstiles are locked and the Hotel found itself at Ground Zero, Bolton became the most infected place in the UK !!!
How do you think that affected Bookings, add to that, FV inherited a debt of £2,000 a day, everyday until the end of 2020, a mortgage payment I think it was, where does that money come from ? I know where it WON'T come from, folks aren't keen to throw good money after bad. But unless it comes from somewhere the Club & the Hotel could be back in Administration before you can say Vanity Venture.
So, what's happening on the pitch is bad enough, the Wunderers have bagged just 5 points from the 21 played for, hopefully that will be 5 from 24 played for by 5pm this Saturday when they play League Toppers, Cambridge United.
Add to that, the BWFC Fans are freaking out about Ian Evatt, before a ball had even been kicked he promised them they'd play like Juventus, turns out they are more Fray Bentos than Juventus, The Fans have little to no faith in Evatt, little if ANY confidence in the team, right down to who gets selected.
If that's not bad enough some Fans who thought Football Ventures known locally as The Punch and Judy "that's NOT the way to do it" Show are beginning to wonder if FV are leading them to the Promised Land or over the cliff to oblivion.
To say that there's dissent and division in the ranks is to put it politely, not that I'm complaining ?
It's hard to say which is in worse shape, the Club or the Hotel, but they say trouble comes in 3's and I'm sure it will, can't say more than that right now, other than to say you've got a decent bet at 25's and 30's.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

YEESSSSS...I just opened an account with William Hill and got another score on at 50/1.. In fact i was a bit cheeky and threw in B.MUNICH to win their league, EVERTON top half finish and NORWICH top 6 finish for 105/1..  

Would've almost felt like a loss if he had ended up only scoring that early penalty, but a very nice win in the end

Bolton Wunderers 1 Oldham Athletic 2
 
What a game that was, Oldham went for it straight from the kick off, putting in a more "Athletic" performance than the Wunderers. Oldham could have gone at least 2 up in the first 20 or so minutes. The ball finally figured out where it's supposed to go in the 28th minute. I have to give credit where it's due, it was a wake up call for the Wunderers and within 4 minutes it was 1-1, that took the top off my celebratory pint.
They went in at HT still 1-1 both teams had their chances but the closer calls came off the Oldham boots of Rowe and Barrnett.
Second half was end to end stuff, both teams going for it, beggars belief how McAleny's chip shot over Bolton's goalkeeper Crellin didn't go in the net, hitting the INSIDE of the upright and bouncing back out. Less than a minute later McAleny's shot at goal was inches wide. By now it was wave after wave by Oldham, playing with confidence, but Bolton weren't idle either, they had their chances but didn't know what to do with them, squandering more than a few opportunities.
Here's what the Stats say.
Possesion: Bolton 61% no wonder with all that back passing and own half passing.
Shots Bolton 11 Oldham 17.
Shots on Target: Bolton 3 Oldham 3.
Corners: Bolton 2 Oldham 9
That gives you an idea that it was end to end stuff, but, at...
60 minutes 1-1
70 minutes 1-1
80 minutes still 1-1 but Oldham throwing the kitchen sink at the Wunderers, but they had a couple of chances on break aways. Wunderers Gnahoua faced an open goal, but he shoots straight at Oldham's goalie. At this point with both teams committed you could sense there'd be a late goal. So at 85 minutes, not wanting it to go the wrong way I'm reaching for the wife's Rosary Beads, they've conjured up many a last gasp goal for me, and I needed one now...
90 minutes still 1-1 the bloke with the board says 5 minutes left to play, it amazing how many Hail Mary's per minute you can say when you need a goal. I must have been doing something right, it's all Oldham again now, one corner, then another. Oldham knew defending set pieces is the Wunderers Achilles Heel. The Wunderers clear both corners, but the second one falls for Oldham who attack again, like men possessed.
The ball falls for Dearnley, he slaps it straight into the net in the 93rd minute. If I'd been on the field for Oldham I'd have been looking for Row Z every time the ball came near me, but they're going for another goal and damn near made it 3-1.
With a last gasp rescue mission in mind the Wunderers threw all the Mid fielders and Forwards into the fray but that went wrong. Oldham got the ball and went 4 against 2 heading for the penalty box, how they muffed that up gawd only knows.
Moments later the Ref blew the whistle. Can't say I've ever seen a team walk off the pitch looking more dejected than the Wunderers looked, not to mention that their Manager had a longer face than Red Rum, Pas Moi though, I'm "made up".
Not sure what to make of their next game, away to Barrow on Tuesday. Barrow is the stone the Wunderers Manager crawled out from under before heading to Bolton, so there'll be needle in that match too. If they can't beat lowly Barrow the Bookies might as well start paying up on the Relegation bets.
Their game next Saturday is against Cambridge United, gawd help them in that game, Cambridge are top of League Two, P6 W4 D1 L1 Goals for 15, Goals against 3.
If only Harrogate had seen Bolton off hey, but with 18 points played for and only 4 points in the bag that 50/1 is looking promising.
C'mon Barrow, see 'em off ?
Chances are Michael dint want much for his tea tonight...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

More profit on Tuesday to continue the good 1st month or so of the new season. Most of my bets are usually in the National League, but nothing really stands out as a bet this week, so I have 3 bets at Step 2 and 1 at Step 3. Also
Gloucester City v Blyth Spartans
Blyth would have gone down last season if the season had of ended and they already look like they will be in a relegation battle this time around as well. I opposed them last week and Telford should have put the game to bed well before they gifted Blyth an equalizer in the 90th minute. They lost in the FA Cup on Wednesday to Marske who are two levels below them and they managed just two shots in the whole game. I have watched all 180 minutes of Gloucester's two games in the league so far and my thoughts pre season that they would be title contenders have been proven by what I have seen so far. They are playing some attractive football and scoring some quality goals. I think they will be suited by their 3G pitch this season as it suits the type of football they are playing and the team is miles better than the Blyth one on paper. It really should be a comfortable home win and the 17/10 on the -1 handicap makes plenty of appeal. I think it is worth covering the -2 at 15/4 as well.
Oxford City v Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge had a slightly surprising opening day win at Billericay, but they were beaten by Hungerford on Saturday and although they are through to the FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round they have had quite easy games against Farnborough and Chichester and were hardly convincing in either. On the other hand Oxford have looked pretty good so far in beating Bath 2-0 on the opening day and then getting a point at Chelmsford. What was particularly eye-catching though was their FA Cup win over Tamworth on Tuesday night. They could both have been at the same level this season and Tamworth are well fancied again to win their league so for Oxford to beat them 6-1 is some statement. If they are in that short of form again here it should be a home win.
Needham Market v Bromsgrove Sporting
Needham are still unbeaten in the league and are looking pretty decent and scoring plenty of goals as well. I think they look a bit of value here against Bromsgrove as they are the outsiders and they should be much closer together. They are doing OK and have only lost 1 game, but they aren't quite hitting the heights of last season at the moment. At 12/5 the home side look a good value bet.
Gloucester City 3pts -1 @ 17/10 with Betway & 1pt  -2 @ 15/4
Oxford City 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betfred
Needham Market 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfred

I've taken a few bets for this weekend.
Dorking to beat Braintree @ 2.05 5/5 units
Dorking will be fighting for promotion and Braintree look very weak this season.
Havant to beat Billericay @ 2.50 2/5 units
Dartford to beat Bath @ 2.00 2/5 units
Maidstone to beat Hemel @ 1.95 2/5 units
Weston Super Mare to beat Wimborne @ 1.90 2/5 units
Wingate & Finchley to beat Merstham @ 3.90 2/5units
 
Gloucester look a good bet aswell, did an acca with all these matches @ 242.85
Dorking is a maxbet @ 5/5 units and is my bet best for the weekend. GL everybody and cheers Darran for an excellent preview as always

I noticed that, with a result like that you can count Grimsby out of the Relegation Battle...

Sorry didn’t see this at time but it would have been a no
 
 

Wow five out of five, £265 Profit. Great weekend.

As promised last week, here is an update about BetOnline’s Mega Contest:
I did not win the $4,000 quarterly prize awarded to the top contestant through four weeks. ?
I dropped from 2nd to 24th place (out of 2671 participants) after posting a disappointing 2-3 record last week.
Still in good shape for season prizes, which are given to the top 100 contestants. Let’s keep grinding!
Let’s now move on to my favorite plays in Week #5!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7 VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The better a team is, the more they benefit from additional rest. That’s not theory, but something that was verified through statistical analyses. It also makes sense from a logical standpoint, as these teams tend to make better use of the extra time for game planning.
That being said, the Steelers are in great position here. Not only are they coming off a bye week, but they will be at home for the fourth straight week! Indeed, they hosted the Broncos and Texans in Weeks #2 and #3 before resting last week.
Over a four-year period, home favorites coming off a bye week have posted a 26-20-2 record against the spread (ATS).
Pittsburgh has very few injured players too! Other than right tackle Zach Banner and backup offensive lineman Stefen Wisniewski, there’s no notable players who are banged up. Although JuJu Smith-Schuster and cornerback Joe Haden just popped on the injury list today, but they seem to have a fair chance of suiting up this Sunday.
Philly, on the other hand, is dealing with lots of injuries. I won’t list them all, but the situation on the offensive line is particularly worrisome. That’s very bad news when facing a ferocious defense like Pittsburgh! Jason Peters and Isaac Seumalo are officially out for this game, while Lane Johnson is questionable.
I’m taking the Steelers to handle their state rival by more than a touchdown.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): ARIZONA CARDINALS -7 AT NEW YORK JETS
When will the Jets finally fire Adam Gase? It seems super obvious that he needs to go. He’s a horrible head coach. I believe Sam Darnold has talent, but he’s been regressing under Gase, who was supposed to be an offensive mastermind. I could see Darnold flourishing once Gase is gone, or if Darnold goes to another team.
The Jets are not playing like a team. They are blowing assignments and taking way too many penalties. They are not disciplined and repeatedly make dumb things on the field. Again, it all starts with the head coach to fix those issues.
As long as Gase is the leader, fading the Jets sounds like a good plan.
Both of the Jets’ tackles are uncertain to play this weekend: George Fant and Mekhi Becton. Even their backup, Chuma Edoga, is banged up.
Joe Flacco will be under center for the Jets following Darnold’s shoulder injury. Over the past five seasons, Flacco has thrown 70 TD passes versus 51 interceptions. That’s not a good ratio at all. He’s 35 years old and unlikely to be the savior.
Arizona is coming off two consecutive losses to ordinary teams after beating the 49ers and the Redskins. I do believe they will rebound; they simply cannot afford to lose this game and won’t take it lightly.
The rest factor is not favoring the Cards, though. They will be playing an early game on the East Coast, but such teams have been beating the spread at a higher rate over the recent years. The Jets benefit from three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday. However, bad teams don’t benefit as much from extra rest compared to elite ones.
I’m banking on Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins to hammer the Jets, which might finally put an end to Adam Gase’s tenure as the Jets’ head coach.
PICK #3 (1 STAR): NEW YORK GIANTS +9.5 AT DALLAS COWBOYS
I can’t say I’m overly confident about this play, but there are so many betting angles pointing in the Giants’ direction that I can’t ignore them.
First, the bad news. New York’s offense has been very anemic this season. They haven’t scored more than 16 points in any game, while averaging less than 12 points per match! That’s awful!
The Giants will also be playing a third road game out of their past four meetings, including a long trip to Los Angeles last week.
Now, the good news. Here are two betting strategies I’ve been following recently who both support taking the Giants this week:
a) Bet a bad team facing a divisional opponent on the road when coming off a loss by more than seven points (60-40-2 ATS record);
b) Bet a bad team who is established as a road underdog by more than seven points if they are coming off at least four straight games in which they were underdogs (63-45-1 ATS record.
I also like the revenge factor here. Last year, the Cowboys handled the Giants easily in both matchups: 35-17 in Dallas, 37-18 in New York.
You’ve also probably heard of the rash of injuries in Dallas. I especially like to focus on offensive line injuries since they play a key role and are undervalued by the general public. Center Joe Looney is out, as well as right tackle Cam Erving. Also, the status of left tackle Tyron Smith is still up in the air.
Some might argue the Cowboys will be super motivated after such an embarrassing loss to the Browns. Fair enough, and to be honest that’s one of my main concerns when picking the Giants here. But the counterargument would be that Dallas is playing on their heels and don’t have much confidence right now.
Personally, I’m tempted to buy half a point and grab the Giants at +10 points. That would make me feel more comfortable with this pick.
Best of luck, my friends!!!
Professor MJ
PS Following the death of our 9-year old Golden Retriever named Player on May 11, my family and I have decided to get a new one. Here is the very first picture of him! We're going to name him Cooper. Really excited about getting him in 37 days from now!

Here's what Ian Evatt {Manager of Bolton Wunderers} has to say about tomorrows game, chances are some of the players are feeling more relaxed about the game seeing as "Shaun was back on the grass this week" ?
Ian Evatt has revealed both new signings will not be a part of the squad travelling to Harrogate this weekend.
Miller has not featured since scoring against his former club Crewe in the EFL Trophy last month, while Isgrove made his debut off the bench against Newport last weekend.
The Bolton boss explained: “Shaun was back on the grass this week. It all looked very promising but he had a slight setback yesterday. I would think he’s still another couple of weeks away.
"Lloyd I would think a couple of weeks as well, but that will involve some physical efforts, like a mini boot camp and pre-season. "Because what you find is because they’ve missed so much time and you’re throwing them into where we train really intensely. 
"We demand nothing less, so when you’re coming out of nothing to that, you’re going to break so we have to be a little bit more patient with especially the ones we’re signing that haven’t been attached to clubs. "Loan players that are in with clubs or players we’re singing from other clubs are fine, they’ve had a pre-season, they can deal with it day-to-day.
"The other lads we’re finding that they’re going to break so we have to be more careful, more cautious and get them up to speed first."
Check out what their Fans think of the Wunderers chance against Harrogate.
https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/18767012.bolton-wanderers-miss-attacking-pair-least-fortnight-says-ian-evatt/
 
 
 
       

Hello Harry,  I hope you took a bit of that 15/2 that the Wunderers would finish up in the bottom half of League 2, it's looking like 2/15 right now, 15 hundred to 2 hundred would have been a nice bet, but £150 to £20 ain't bad either. If the Wunderers get beat by Harrogate this week end the Bookies might as well start paying up. As mentioned before it's not just the dire performances on the pitch it's what's going on "in the Board Room" it looks like clouds are gathering for Football Ventures, on that front, won't be long before it's a "read all about it" as this ship ploughs into another iceberg, you heard it first here.

Well..It had to happen...I loaded up one last time with Will Hill yesterday morning at 40/1,in a treble with Everton to finish top half and B.Munich to win the Bunders that pays 55/1. But sadly Will Hill have also now suspended the betting on Relegation.. I also backed Newport to win yesterday and had a live bet on them at h/t to score 2 or more in the 2nd half at 11/4..They were bossing the game and i remembered Bobs words that if Bolton concede first then their heads will drop... Happy days so far Bob... Cheers mate.. And i think Newport are a team to keep onside in the future..

Still no offers from Bet365 Bob... But i also told my mate last night and he asked for a bit of the action so i put another £20 on for him and me at 50/1 at williamHill .. He called me earlier to put another £20 on for him which i did but i could only get 40/1 now. I guess the worst that could happen if things go tits up with Covid is that they will void the league again and return bets ??

Looks like most if not all Bookies don't want to lay Bolton to be relegated, BetVictor is listing them at 33/1 still a fair bet, but I'd be surprised if they'd take much at that price. The 55/1 they offered and I took is looking to be a decent bet even though it's still early days yet, well, at least on the pitch, but that 6/4 against Harrogate for the next game looks tempting, but, being superstitious, not fancying stiffening my long term bets I'll sit Bolton's games out.
You were lucky that it was 0-0 at HT I watched the game on ifollow, Newport were "all ore um" how they weren't 3-0 up by HT beggars belief. Newport hit the woodwork more times than a woodpecker. They were ripping the Wunderers defence apart, it was just a matter of time, and nicely timed for your bet, 11/4 was a great price.
As for the 50/1 bet going to plan, well, you should see what the Wunderers Fans have to say in the Bolton Evening News, they are furious about this "Lad's & Dad's" team, but as I expected they really are shyte, even so I think our other runner in this race, the potential for the club to go into Admin {again} is looking even stronger, see the comments from Wunderers Fans, cut and pasted from the Bolton Evening News.
The club have won five games in all competitions since Football Ventures acquired the club. That is in leagues 1 and 2, been relegated and now sit in the lowest position in their history having lost their first five matches and failed to score against teams who were not even in league when we scoring at the Allianz.
Add to that Football Ventures are now on their second management team, they sacked the head of recruitment, horribly undermined Hill, Brittan even sacked her long standing friend, the CEO and now they are sacking long term servants of the club.
You can add to that, abandoning 99 years of reserve football, losing the ladies team and appointing a Director of Football who was driving trains for a living until four years ago. Can anybody point to where Kenyon and Football Ventures have been successful in football terms?
Financially the club is imploding, the debt is increasing and we've even had to pay the administrator with land.
We are the only club to ever leave admin owing more than they went in with. The £4m due to CVA creditors in 10 months is looking like another broken promise. The hotel has collapsed, Football Ventures have defaulted and paid neither the administrator nor their CVA creditors. The biggest concern is the club now owes more than its assets and will not survive a further insolvency event.
HOW can FV pay the bills with no gate money, and now more players than Arsenal have on their books. The Club must be haemorrhaging money right now paying off historical debts.
All products of the Tobias Phoenix academy of players who should be playing in non league and that's where they were until Phoenix remarkably saved their careers and gave them contracts at Bolton Wanderers.
What is Evatt supposed to do with players who were playing in tier 7 last season and released by National League clubs. Comley and Taft we're heading into the National League until Phoenix rescued them. And then gives a three year deal to a 32 year old striker whose only desire is his contract, and only consistency is his inconsistency. Alongside a midfielder who in three months wasn't fit and is clearly disinterested in playing for club.
Tobias Phoenix was driving a train four years ago, he should be sent back to continue his career with London Transport.    His gravy train has hit the buffers and somebody needs to look at these deals.   Sounds like there's "Trouble int Mill" to me...   C'mon you Sulphurites !!!            

At 4pm today the FOBT machine in BaldFred's is still laying 55/1 to tenners !!!

Could be a nice overs goal bet then

I think you are right that a lot of clubs are already in trouble, but, none of them have such an expensive stadium plus an Hotel to carry on their backs, if that's not enough try adding £3.4 Million of inherited debt. Add to that, no club is carrying a heavier points penalty than the Wunderers, if things come unstuck they will have 17 points deducted, not 12.
If Newport beat them it'll be "ask not for who the whistle blows", it won't be blowing for the end of the game, it'll be blowing for of the end of the Wunderers and I mean oblivion, who wants overheads for the stadium, the hotel and inherited debts for a team playing in League 2, there'd be no point in the Wunderers playing Non League.
They / FV could sell the hotel off, but, who wants it right now, a hotel in a town with the worst Wu Flu infections in Britain !!!
FV aka the Sharon & Michael show paid £17.4 Million for the Club and the Hotel, expecting that both would generate revenue, but what's the Club and the Hotel worth now with neither of them making what FV expected ???
What I want to know is, where's the day to day, week to week income FV need to cover overheads, wages, etc coming from.    I can't see anything that could be sold right now, they'd be lucky to give some of their players away, let alone sell them, it will be interesting to see how all this pans out.
What would you do to get out from under, would you put more of your money into what seems to me to be a sinking ship ?
Seems like a Perfect Storm to me...
 
 

Aye, well, the devil is always in the detail, so it should help folks if you give them the detail, plus an insight into the logic and discipline that I deploy.
Betting is a COLD / HARD game, one that few people manage to break even on, let alone show a profit, and if you do show a profit the algorithms that the Bookies now employ will soon root you out and kick you out. No one runs a tighter ship with their algorithms than Bet365 or Billy Hills, but all the Bookies are at it.
I've served my time betting, had some memorable wins, but over the last 50 years I guess I've burned £250,000 possibly more, does that sound like "betting for fun" to you ?          
Knowing how hard a game betting is I try my best to steer young lads away from it, one of the lads in his 20's that goes in the pub I drink in always asks me if I'm having a bet, ever since I put him onto South Africa to win the RU World Cup, he had 200 quid on at 9/2 and since then always asks if I'm having a bet. I try to slow him down, but when yer young you want it now, patience doesn't run in their race. We walked into Billy Hills yesterday to get a few more quid on the 50/1 shot, I was already well invested on the bet, but I couldn't resist throwing another 20 quid on it, a grand to 20 quid is warth taking, Jim had the same. I'm amazed that the odds are still there. Anyway, as we went in I asked Jim "which one of these ragged assed owd men would you like to be 40 years from now". I think he got the point..
They, like me, were all Jim's age 40 years ago, they started out with nothing and, thanks to Betting Shops they still have most of it left. None of them ever looks back as what this addiction cost them over the last 10, 20 or 40 years, more than their house is worth for some of them, but almost certainly more than they have in a bank account after a life time of grafting.
It's not even as though it's "easy come, easy go" most folks in my generation worked / grafted for their wages, so it never was "easy come" but due to the addiction that gambling is it certainly is easy go, never to be seen again. The Bookies are RUTHLESS those machines they put in their shops they have cost some folks their every penny they had, some even went into debt to continue getting their Fixed Odds Terminal Fix, sadly some lost more than their money, some lost everything and finished up topping themselves.       I wouldn't touch FOBT's with a barge pole, they are the crack cocaine of the Betting Shops, thousands of lives have been ruined due to FOBT's.
Knowing how RUTHLESS Bookies are I put my "work" in where they don't look. When Saturday rolls around I scour the non league games looking on Twitter for teams that are struggling to put a full team out, without having to call on the coach driver to play in goal or the turnstile man to play centre back, and Office Staff just to make the team up, that actually happened one memorable day. You might remember when Merthyr Town couldn't put a team out a couple of years ago, thanks to Twitter I'd picked up on that Friday night when FEW IF ANY folks outside of Merthyr had heard what was going on, I spent 2 hours backing Chesham {WHO ARE YA} who the **** had EVER heard of Chesham !!!
Most of the online Bookies had a £200 limit on the game, but I hammered them all to whatever limit they had. I was up with the larks Saturday morning putting £100 here and £100 there in the shops until the Bookies cottoned on and started dropping their prices from 11/8 Chesham to 1/3 I even bet them at that. It was pathetic for Merthyr, they were 4-0 down in 15 minutes, and 9-0 down by half time, if memory serves me well Chesham were winning 12-0 when the Chesham supporters were shouting "let them get a goal" they did the decent thing the game finished 13-1. The Man of the Match award was given to Merthyr's 15 year old goalkeeper !!!
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/crisis-hit-merthyr-town-humiliated-13921420
That result got my accounts closed with 7 Bookmakers, they were hissed off because I knew what they didn't, that's the only way to win, now and again, but you have to wait for events like that, most folks don't have that discipline, they NEED their FIX.
Good as it was {to get one ore the Bookies} there was a more memorable bet, a three horse race headed by Little Owl the horse that had at one time won the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, race in a 3 horse race, against Venture to Cognac {a good but past his best chaser} and Great Dean, a decent jumper but I could have done 3 miles faster in my day.
The betting was 1/3 Little Owl, 7/2 Venture to Cognac, 150/1 Great Dean, have you any idea what the Computer Straight Forecast would be in Little Owl didn't finish the course, are you ahead of me yet ? a bunch of us put fivers on here, there and everywhere, can't say why ? but here's what happened...
"The 1982 Fulwell Chase at Kempton Park appeared a mundane contest. True, the Gold Cup winner Little Owl was in attendance but he faced only two rivals in Venture To Cognac and Great Dean.  "Venture To Cognac had some useful form to his credit but had become injury-prone and was considered to need the run. As for Great Dean, he had been pulled up at lowly Fontwell and needed a miracle if he was to win such a valuable prize.

"Little Owl was sent off the 4-11 favourite, Venture To Cognac 7-2 with Great Dean appearing for all the world a lost cause at 150-1. "As far as winning the race was concerned, Great Dean was virtually friendless. On the course and in the betting shops it was only the odd `just-for-fun' merchant and habitues of the `outsider-of-three' system who gave him even a moment's consideration. "Or so it seemed. But dotted about the country were a handful of shrewd punters who had spotted the chance to make a killing on the race. A chance, that's all. Those shrewdies didn't expect to pickup but knew exceptional value when they saw it.

"And what a killing! Not only were these punters expecting to receive odds of around 150-1 on their bet, they were also gleefully awaiting the chance to make fools of the big bookmakers. "For once, the bookmakers had made a `rick' and a mighty serious one at that. "The mistake was in the format for the then relatively new Computerised Straight Forecast (CSF), which allowed for inflated dividends should a long-priced outsider make the frame in a small field.

"The Fulwell Chase offered an ideal chance to exploit this loophole. All it needed was for Little Owl to fail to complete the course (as he had done at Cheltenham on his previous start) and this would enable Venture To Cognac to win with Great Dean hopefully putting in a clear round to come second.

"The race went entirely to script for these backers. Little Owl leading by 10 lengths with just 3 to go, then coming to the second last and seemingly going well, he swerved and was pulled up by jockey and part-owner Jim Wilson at the 10th.

"This left Venture To Cognac clear of the already tailed-off Great Dean a full fence behind. The former sauntered round to win by a distance and Great Dean, with forecast backers holding their breath, Great Dean went over the last like a spider, one leg at a time, completed in his own time to earn a place in the history books.

Jim Wilson reported that Little Owl's bit had reportedly slipped, but the bookmakers were not happy, especially when they realised the extent of their liabilities. "Payment was held back while BOLA and the racing authorities carried out an investigation into the race. No evidence of any misdemeanour was produced and the bookmakers, suitably chastened, eventually paid out.

"They also called in their computer people to change the format of the CSF to avoid such inflated dividends in small fields in the future, and the result was what is disingenuously referred to as the `Harmonic formula' for producing CSF dividends. Today, if Venture To Cognac were to beat Great Dean in identical circumstances, backers would receive odds of only 15-1. But on the day the CSF paid £75 to 50p I had 30 quid on the bet, all in all between me and the lads in the White Lion we had £75 on the bets and we cleaned several Bookies out that day. These events are rare birds, but you never forget how sweet the meat was...  
All in all, REMEMBER what Gus Demmy told me, the less often you bet, the more often you win, if you want to get an edge, do yer homework...
Anon.

Week #1 in the NFL is finally upon us!
Right off the bat I’ve got a great betting angle that’s been doing wonders historically in Week #1:
"Bet a team facing a divisional opponent against which they lost both meetings the year before."
Let’s call it the “Week #1 Double Division Revenge” factor.
Over the past 10 years, this strategy led to an astounding 22-10 record against the spread (ATS), a 68.8% win rate!
This year we’ve got five teams meeting this criterion for betting. Out of those, there’s one squad I won’t bet for different reasons, while the other four are all part of my weekly picks.
We are starting strong, already with a 5-star play!
PICK #1 (5 STARS): ARIZONA CARDINALS +7 AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
First of all, the Cards represent a good bet according to the Double Division Revenge strategy described earlier. Arizona lost 28-25 at home and 36-26 on the road against the Niners last year.
Secondly, teams who had a losing record the year before facing a team that had a winning record tend to do very well in Week #1. Indeed, they have gone 89-57 ATS since 1990 (61.0%), and 46-23 ATS since 2006 (66.7%). Arizona finished with a 5-10-1 record in 2019 versus 13-3 for San Francisco.
Thirdly, the betting public could be overlooking the injury bug that’s been hitting the 49ers recently.
At wide receiver, the team is in trouble. Deebo Samuel is either out, or will be on a snap count due to a foot injury. Following the departure of Emmanuel Sanders to New Orleans, who was set to become their #2 guy? The answer wasn’t clear to begin with, and things got even worse in the past few weeks. Travis Benjamin, Jalen Hurd and Tavon Austin are all out.
Rookie Brandon Aiyuk was projected to be the starter opposite Samuel, but he’s also hurt and his status is uncertain. Kendrick Bourne and/or Trent Taylor might need to be more involved, which is hardly good news.
The defense also has numerous guys who are questionable or banged up: Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Dee Ford and K’Waun Williams.
For these reasons, I’m going to back the Cards. Now in their second year in the NFL, QB Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury should be more comfortable. I would not fall off my chair if Arizona won the game outright. As you could read in my 49ers 2020 preview, I’m afraid their 2019 season was a fluke.
PICK #2 (4 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
In 2019, Washington lost both matchups with the Eagles: 32-27 in Philly and 37-27 in D.C. In other words, the Double Division Revenge betting angle applies here.
Also, who likes to put his money on a team that finished 3-13 a year ago? Only contrarians like myself do.
Injuries have already taken a toll on Philly’s roster. Alshon Jeffery is out, and rookie Jalen Reagor is questionable but likely out as well. That leaves the team with 33-year old DeSean Jackson, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward as starters. Not good.
The organization also lost two key pieces on their offensive line: stud right guard Brandon Brooks and left tackle Andre Dillard. Ouch.
That’s not it. Starting safety Will Parks is out, while Javon Hargrave, a beast on the defensive line, is banged up with a pectoral strain. Finally, running back Miles Sanders will be in the lineup, but a hamstring injury is bothering him.
I was close to rating it 5 stars, but one factor stopped me from pulling the trigger on this one. I don’t like the fact that Washington has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. That’s far from ideal in Week #1.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): DETROIT LIONS -3 VS CHICAGO BEARS
Once again, we’ve got the Double Division Revenge betting strategy on our side. Indeed, Detroit lost 20-13 in Chicago and 24-20 at home last season against Da Bears.
Starting running back David Montgomery is likely out, or limited. The backups are Tarik Cohen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ryan Nall and Artavis Pierce, who have combined for 83 carries in 2019. I liked Cohen a lot early in his career, but he was plain awful last year.
I do believe the Lions are an underrated team who could explode this year. They have much more talent than you’d think. Matthew Stafford has been great throughout his career, but he doesn’t get the credit he deserves because his teams have done badly.
The defense has a lot of new faces: Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, Jamie Collins, Desmond Trufant, Duron Harmon and #3 overall pick Jeffrey Okudah. They are likely to lift this unit, but how much time will it take to gel?
PICK #4 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -3 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Covid-19 virus forced the NFL to shorten its training camps and to cancel all preseason games. That’s likely to have the following impact:
Teams with more continuity will have a big advantage over teams who don’t. In other words, having the same coaching staff and the same core players will provide a huge advantage.
That favors the Raiders in a big way over the Panthers.
On one hand, Las Vegas retained the same coaching staff, while Carolina has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. What makes it even worse is these three guys have just 7 years of combined NFL experience. To put things in perspective, the team with the second-lowest NFL experience among its coaches has 31 years behind the belt. There is an overwhelming gap between Carolina and any other squad.
The Panthers may also be the team that had the largest player turnover this offseason. On offense, they have a new QB (Teddy Bridgewater), a new No.2 WR (Robby Anderson), a new starting tight end with Greg Olsen leaving the franchise and 2-3 new starters on the offensive line.
As for the defense, the unit lost Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, Bruce Irvin, Mario Addison, Luke Kuechly and James Bradberry (omitting a few more players that are now off the team). Unreal.
I’m taking the more stable Raiders team since Carolina might be lacking cohesion and timing on both sides of the ball.
PICK #5 (2 STARS): MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
Again, the Double Division Revenge factor comes into play. Minnesota lost both meetings with the team from the Frozen Tundra: 21-16 in Green Bay, 23-10 in Minnesota.
This pick is not rated very high because that’s pretty much the lone argument favoring them. Green Bay returns the same coaching staff, while the Vikes have a new OC and a new DC.
You could argue, though, that the Packers defense’s Achilles heel was its run defense, which happens to be Minnesota’s strength with Dalvin Cook leading the way (and a very promising RB #2 in Alexander Mattison).
Both teams have a hole at the WR #2 position. Can Allen Lazard or Bisi Johnson truly assume that role for their respective teams? I doubt it.
I’m also afraid the Vikings defense might regress significantly after losing many key pieces like Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph and three cornerbacks.
PICK #6 (1 STAR): HOUSTON TEXANS +9 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Big underdogs have fared very well in the opening week of NFL regular seasons.
As a matter of fact, 8+ points underdogs have gone 43-25 ATS in recent years in Week #1; that’s a 63.2% winning play.
I think the DeAndre Hopkins trade was horrible for the Texans, but they still have a strong WR corps with Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. And the team still has one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Deshaun Watson.
Their defense worries me, though. Their secondaries are fairly bad, which does not bode well when facing the Chiefs aerial attack! Also, losing stud defensive lineman D.J. Reader is a blow.
I do think the Chiefs defense is pretty bad and overrated, so I’m hoping the Texans can keep the score close enough to cover this big point spread.
Enjoy Week #1 and I’ll talk to you again very soon!
Professor MJ

Just a thought in terms of betting angles - given these are now one legged ties, are goals more likely in the matches with short priced favs at home - on basis the fav goes in front the dog isn't interested in hanging in for a low margin defeat, they need to get back in the game/could then lose interest when 3 down. Maybe something more for inplay, but might explore some handicaps on some of the solid shorties.