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smegmaniac

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  1. Like
    smegmaniac reacted to CzechPunter in September 26 - October 2   
    A fair comment, it's probably factored in a bit, can't be a 50/50 match at face value.
  2. Like
    smegmaniac got a reaction from CzechPunter in September 26 - October 2   
    I've actually got kvitova backed at 25-1 outright and considering her form at the moment, I'm quite surprised she is 5-6 versus konta . I'm just curious...she played a really gruelling 3 hour twenty minute match against the last player you want to play that length a match with and I wonder if the bookies are factoring in fatigue in a big way or do they actually believe this is a 50-50 match up at face value. If kvitova is not too fatigued I think she is the value, but I'm a little worried about her comments after the match( I will definitely feel the effects tomorrow). Hopefully she can recover in time!!
  3. Like
    smegmaniac got a reaction from LEV in September 26 - October 2   
    I've actually got kvitova backed at 25-1 outright and considering her form at the moment, I'm quite surprised she is 5-6 versus konta . I'm just curious...she played a really gruelling 3 hour twenty minute match against the last player you want to play that length a match with and I wonder if the bookies are factoring in fatigue in a big way or do they actually believe this is a 50-50 match up at face value. If kvitova is not too fatigued I think she is the value, but I'm a little worried about her comments after the match( I will definitely feel the effects tomorrow). Hopefully she can recover in time!!
  4. Like
    smegmaniac got a reaction from higuys in September 26 - October 2   
    I've actually got kvitova backed at 25-1 outright and considering her form at the moment, I'm quite surprised she is 5-6 versus konta . I'm just curious...she played a really gruelling 3 hour twenty minute match against the last player you want to play that length a match with and I wonder if the bookies are factoring in fatigue in a big way or do they actually believe this is a 50-50 match up at face value. If kvitova is not too fatigued I think she is the value, but I'm a little worried about her comments after the match( I will definitely feel the effects tomorrow). Hopefully she can recover in time!!
  5. Like
    smegmaniac got a reaction from four-leaf in Wimbledon 2016   
    Albert Ramos Vinolas to beat Vasek Pospisil at 10-3 Bet365 2 points.
    It’s just such a good price! I think Ramos Vinolas is wrongly being pegged as just a clay courter here. He has to be one of the most improved players on tour and his performance to make the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, beating the likes of Sock and Raonic on the way, was really outstanding. He has not had much success in Wimbledon in the past but he has been unlucky enough to have been drawn against the likes of Del Potro and Federer 2 of the past there times. I saw his match against Istomin last year and for two sets I was really impressed by how well he moved and served on the surface before Istomin retired injured with a phantom injury. He is a much improved player 12 months later (particularly mentally as he used to be a bit of a choker) and I expect him to ride the confidence of reaching the quarters of the French to put in a good showing here.  His twitter accounts also suggests positivity regarding being back on the grass. Regarding Pospisil, he will be under a lot of pressure to defend the points he gained from his outstanding quarterfinal run at Wimbledon last year. No doubt, grass is his favourite surface but he is having an absolute stinker of a year this year and it has to be remembered that he was being outplayed by leftie Vincent Millot last year in the first round when being 2  sets to one and a break down to Millot before Millot finally tired. He also benefitted from a Troicki blow up and a dream fourth round draw versus Ward to make the quarters. This year , there are hesitant signs that he is finding his feet again on the grass with wins over Kozlov, Kamke and Dzumhur but none of those guys are world beaters so he hasn’t really done enough for me to warrant such huge favouritism in this match against a confident player. Just think there is value on Ramos Vinolas but modest stakes advised!
  6. Like
    smegmaniac got a reaction from CzechPunter in Wimbledon 2016   
    Albert Ramos Vinolas to beat Vasek Pospisil at 10-3 Bet365 2 points.
    It’s just such a good price! I think Ramos Vinolas is wrongly being pegged as just a clay courter here. He has to be one of the most improved players on tour and his performance to make the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, beating the likes of Sock and Raonic on the way, was really outstanding. He has not had much success in Wimbledon in the past but he has been unlucky enough to have been drawn against the likes of Del Potro and Federer 2 of the past there times. I saw his match against Istomin last year and for two sets I was really impressed by how well he moved and served on the surface before Istomin retired injured with a phantom injury. He is a much improved player 12 months later (particularly mentally as he used to be a bit of a choker) and I expect him to ride the confidence of reaching the quarters of the French to put in a good showing here.  His twitter accounts also suggests positivity regarding being back on the grass. Regarding Pospisil, he will be under a lot of pressure to defend the points he gained from his outstanding quarterfinal run at Wimbledon last year. No doubt, grass is his favourite surface but he is having an absolute stinker of a year this year and it has to be remembered that he was being outplayed by leftie Vincent Millot last year in the first round when being 2  sets to one and a break down to Millot before Millot finally tired. He also benefitted from a Troicki blow up and a dream fourth round draw versus Ward to make the quarters. This year , there are hesitant signs that he is finding his feet again on the grass with wins over Kozlov, Kamke and Dzumhur but none of those guys are world beaters so he hasn’t really done enough for me to warrant such huge favouritism in this match against a confident player. Just think there is value on Ramos Vinolas but modest stakes advised!
  7. Like
    smegmaniac got a reaction from CzechPunter in Wimbledon 2016   
    Duque Marino to Beat Cepelova 2 points at evens  with Powers.
    Am really surprised to see Duque Marino as the underdog here. She has been in great form recently. She reached the final at Nuremberg on clay about a month ago beating the likes of Beck, Siegemund and Lepchenko, she beat Gavrilova at the French and has some good grass court results this year too. She has already beaten Van Uytvanck and grass court lover Lisicki this year while 3 set losses to Konjuh and Sevestova don't read too badly. She actually serves pretty well and can play with variety and I think her slice could unsettle the one-dimensional Cepelova. Cepelova's form this year has not been great and I wonder do the prices reflect the fact that she is living off the past glory of beating an off colour Halep at Wimbledon last year before losing in straights to Niculescu ( a player not entirely dissimilar to Duque Marino though Duque Marino's game isn't quite as idiosyncratic). It certainly is worth noting that Cepelova qualified here very comfortably and I suppose that is another reason why she is favourite but it has to be said that she benefited from a very cushy draw , beating Jorovic, Reix and K Zhang. Duque Marino is a step up in class for her and has one their only meeting on grass this time last year 6-1,6-1. That is enough reason for me to snatch up the evens going about her!
     
  8. Like
    smegmaniac got a reaction from CzechPunter in Wimbledon 2016   
    Andy Murray to reach the final of Wimbledon 3 points 11-10 Bet365.
    Agree with Czech Punter here! I think it is all set up for Murray to do this. He has been so consistent over the last few years. Has reached the last two Grand Slam finals and he loves the grass. The key thing here is that he doesn’t have to play Roger to get to the final and I would make him big favourite against any of the players in his side of the draw on grass. He also had Lendl back in his camp, has won Queens, looks hungry and set to have a good tilt at the title!
  9. Like
    smegmaniac got a reaction from janekda in Wimbledon 2016   
    Albert Ramos Vinolas to beat Vasek Pospisil at 10-3 Bet365 2 points.
    It’s just such a good price! I think Ramos Vinolas is wrongly being pegged as just a clay courter here. He has to be one of the most improved players on tour and his performance to make the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, beating the likes of Sock and Raonic on the way, was really outstanding. He has not had much success in Wimbledon in the past but he has been unlucky enough to have been drawn against the likes of Del Potro and Federer 2 of the past there times. I saw his match against Istomin last year and for two sets I was really impressed by how well he moved and served on the surface before Istomin retired injured with a phantom injury. He is a much improved player 12 months later (particularly mentally as he used to be a bit of a choker) and I expect him to ride the confidence of reaching the quarters of the French to put in a good showing here.  His twitter accounts also suggests positivity regarding being back on the grass. Regarding Pospisil, he will be under a lot of pressure to defend the points he gained from his outstanding quarterfinal run at Wimbledon last year. No doubt, grass is his favourite surface but he is having an absolute stinker of a year this year and it has to be remembered that he was being outplayed by leftie Vincent Millot last year in the first round when being 2  sets to one and a break down to Millot before Millot finally tired. He also benefitted from a Troicki blow up and a dream fourth round draw versus Ward to make the quarters. This year , there are hesitant signs that he is finding his feet again on the grass with wins over Kozlov, Kamke and Dzumhur but none of those guys are world beaters so he hasn’t really done enough for me to warrant such huge favouritism in this match against a confident player. Just think there is value on Ramos Vinolas but modest stakes advised!
  10. Like
    smegmaniac got a reaction from CzechPunter in June 6 - June 12   
  11. Like
    smegmaniac got a reaction from CzechPunter in Australian Open 2016   
    Klara Koukalova to beat Nicole Gibbs at 5-2 with boylesports.
    I just think the price has become far too big for Koukalova. Gibbs has a lot of wins under her belt of late (she has won 12 of her last 14) but most of those wins have been at itf level and there isn't a player of note amongst that group of 14 that she beat. She generally does struggle at grand slam level and has done so for years. Koukalova is famously inconsistent and there were certainly times last season that she was so poor that I was half expecting her to announce her retirement any moment but surprisingly she actually pulled off a good run of results herself towards the end of the year, winning 11 of her last 13 matches (against opponents of similar stature to the ones Gibbs beat, admittedly) which suggests that she's not just finished yet. It's also worth noting that Koukalova has won the only match between the two no less than 6 months ago beating Gibbs in straight sets on grass! Basically, I can't understand why Gibbs is such a huge favourite here...There is no doubt in my mind that anything close to Koukalova's A-game has the beating of Gibbs, whose ceiling is certainly lower than Koukalova's. Of course, there is a risk in backing a player as inconsistent as Koukalova and she hasn't had a good start to the season but one would have to believe that at this stage of her career, she'd be motivated to give her best at slams as she probably realises that she won't be getting many more opportunities at the greatest stage and I believe she has the beaten of Gibbs! At the very least, it's worth a small punt at very generous odds!