smegmaniac
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Posts posted by smegmaniac
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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:
Back Petra Kvitova to beat Johanna Konta at 1.83 with BetVictor
I'm always fine with going against Kvitova when the price is right, but this is a case in which I'd actually want to back her, as she looked very good against Kerber in the previous round. She's streaky, but she's got the momentum now and that's why I think that she deserves to be seen as a fairly big favourite here. Konta's steady enough, but, if Kvitova finds her rhythm, she shouldn't have the weapons to fight back.
I've actually got kvitova backed at 25-1 outright and considering her form at the moment, I'm quite surprised she is 5-6 versus konta . I'm just curious...she played a really gruelling 3 hour twenty minute match against the last player you want to play that length a match with and I wonder if the bookies are factoring in fatigue in a big way or do they actually believe this is a 50-50 match up at face value. If kvitova is not too fatigued I think she is the value, but I'm a little worried about her comments after the match( I will definitely feel the effects tomorrow). Hopefully she can recover in time!!
- higuys, LEV and CzechPunter
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Albert Ramos Vinolas to beat Vasek Pospisil at 10-3 Bet365 2 points.
It’s just such a good price! I think Ramos Vinolas is wrongly being pegged as just a clay courter here. He has to be one of the most improved players on tour and his performance to make the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, beating the likes of Sock and Raonic on the way, was really outstanding. He has not had much success in Wimbledon in the past but he has been unlucky enough to have been drawn against the likes of Del Potro and Federer 2 of the past there times. I saw his match against Istomin last year and for two sets I was really impressed by how well he moved and served on the surface before Istomin retired injured with a phantom injury. He is a much improved player 12 months later (particularly mentally as he used to be a bit of a choker) and I expect him to ride the confidence of reaching the quarters of the French to put in a good showing here. His twitter accounts also suggests positivity regarding being back on the grass. Regarding Pospisil, he will be under a lot of pressure to defend the points he gained from his outstanding quarterfinal run at Wimbledon last year. No doubt, grass is his favourite surface but he is having an absolute stinker of a year this year and it has to be remembered that he was being outplayed by leftie Vincent Millot last year in the first round when being 2 sets to one and a break down to Millot before Millot finally tired. He also benefitted from a Troicki blow up and a dream fourth round draw versus Ward to make the quarters. This year , there are hesitant signs that he is finding his feet again on the grass with wins over Kozlov, Kamke and Dzumhur but none of those guys are world beaters so he hasn’t really done enough for me to warrant such huge favouritism in this match against a confident player. Just think there is value on Ramos Vinolas but modest stakes advised!
- CzechPunter, four-leaf and janekda
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Duque Marino to Beat Cepelova 2 points at evens with Powers.
Am really surprised to see Duque Marino as the underdog here. She has been in great form recently. She reached the final at Nuremberg on clay about a month ago beating the likes of Beck, Siegemund and Lepchenko, she beat Gavrilova at the French and has some good grass court results this year too. She has already beaten Van Uytvanck and grass court lover Lisicki this year while 3 set losses to Konjuh and Sevestova don't read too badly. She actually serves pretty well and can play with variety and I think her slice could unsettle the one-dimensional Cepelova. Cepelova's form this year has not been great and I wonder do the prices reflect the fact that she is living off the past glory of beating an off colour Halep at Wimbledon last year before losing in straights to Niculescu ( a player not entirely dissimilar to Duque Marino though Duque Marino's game isn't quite as idiosyncratic). It certainly is worth noting that Cepelova qualified here very comfortably and I suppose that is another reason why she is favourite but it has to be said that she benefited from a very cushy draw , beating Jorovic, Reix and K Zhang. Duque Marino is a step up in class for her and has one their only meeting on grass this time last year 6-1,6-1. That is enough reason for me to snatch up the evens going about her!
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Andy Murray to reach the final of Wimbledon 3 points 11-10 Bet365.
Agree with Czech Punter here! I think it is all set up for Murray to do this. He has been so consistent over the last few years. Has reached the last two Grand Slam finals and he loves the grass. The key thing here is that he doesn’t have to play Roger to get to the final and I would make him big favourite against any of the players in his side of the draw on grass. He also had Lendl back in his camp, has won Queens, looks hungry and set to have a good tilt at the title!
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45 minutes ago, Fader said:
5pts V.Troicki to beat F.Mayer 2-0 11/10 Bet365
Both players looking to get into the last 16 here. Flo Mayer is in his home country however he is primarily a clay court player. Since the change of surface of this event from Clay to Grass Troicki has done well in Germany and has points to protect here after progressing to the final last year so he should have the desire to do well. Mayer leads the H2H however, the last meeting was on the clay. I'm going Troicki in two as he bids to go one step further to winning the Merc.Though, I don't think this is a bad tip by any means, I think it's still worth mentioning that Mayer's best results at the Grand Slams have actually come on grass- he's a former Wimbledon quarter-finalist and I even remember commentators labelling him a grass court specialist. He's not someone I'd be backing against on grass ...however, I do agree that Troicki looks set to have a good grass court season.
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Klara Koukalova to beat Nicole Gibbs at 5-2 with boylesports.
I just think the price has become far too big for Koukalova. Gibbs has a lot of wins under her belt of late (she has won 12 of her last 14) but most of those wins have been at itf level and there isn't a player of note amongst that group of 14 that she beat. She generally does struggle at grand slam level and has done so for years. Koukalova is famously inconsistent and there were certainly times last season that she was so poor that I was half expecting her to announce her retirement any moment but surprisingly she actually pulled off a good run of results herself towards the end of the year, winning 11 of her last 13 matches (against opponents of similar stature to the ones Gibbs beat, admittedly) which suggests that she's not just finished yet. It's also worth noting that Koukalova has won the only match between the two no less than 6 months ago beating Gibbs in straight sets on grass! Basically, I can't understand why Gibbs is such a huge favourite here...There is no doubt in my mind that anything close to Koukalova's A-game has the beating of Gibbs, whose ceiling is certainly lower than Koukalova's. Of course, there is a risk in backing a player as inconsistent as Koukalova and she hasn't had a good start to the season but one would have to believe that at this stage of her career, she'd be motivated to give her best at slams as she probably realises that she won't be getting many more opportunities at the greatest stage and I believe she has the beaten of Gibbs! At the very least, it's worth a small punt at very generous odds!
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First off , apologies for the Cornet tip yesterday. Haven't tipped many losers in a while and in my defence Cornet was clearly injured but still, it is never nice to know that someone could be losing money due to a tip I've given. Nevertheless, here is a bet that stood out to me today. Leonardo Mayer plus 20.5 aces versus Kevin Anderson at 4-5 with Skybet. Anderson is clearly a big server...but I don't put him in the same class as Raonic, Isner or Karlovic. Mayer's serve is under-rated and one of the reasons he has tended to do quite well here on the grass. Anderson served 23 aces in his first match and 34 aces in his second. Both matches were 4 setters. Mayer scored 15 aces against Kokkinakis in 3 sets but only 9 versus Granollers in the second match but that was a match he won comfortably in 3 sets. I saw him against Kokkinakis and he was reading serve very well which suggests that he may be able to get a racket on more of Anderson's serves than most of Anderson's opponents. Also, scoring 15 aces in 3 sets versus Kokkinakis is a pretty decent return. If this matches goes to 4 sets, I feel that a return of 15 /9which he seems more than capable of producing) would be more than enough to cover a 20 ace handicap. If it ends up being a long drawn out battle, then perhaps Anderson could pull away on the ace count but a long drawn out battle would suggest that Mayer is serving well too and still 20 seems too much to me! Again, I still don't rate Anderson's serve in the same league as Isner, Raonic or Karlovic. Good luck , folks!
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First off , apologies for the Cornet tip yesterday. Haven't tipped many losers in a while and in my defence Cornet was clearly injured but still, it is never nice to know that someone could be losing money due to a tip I've given. Nevertheless, here is a bet that stood out to me today. Leonardo Mayer plus 20.5 aces versus Kevin Anderson at 4-5 with Skybet. Anderson is clearly a big server...but I don't put him in the same class as Raonic, Isner or Karlovic. Mayer's serve is under-rated and one of the reasons he has tended to do quite well here on the grass. Anderson served 23 aces in his first match and 34 aces in his second. Both matches were 4 setters. Mayer scored 15 aces against Kokkinakis in 3 sets but only 9 versus Granollers in the second match but that was a match he won comfortably in 3 sets. I saw him against Kokkinakis and he was reading serve very well which suggests that he may be able to get a racket on more of Anderson's serves than most of Anderson's opponents. Also, scoring 15 aces in 3 sets versus Kokkinakis is a pretty decent return. If this matches goes to 4 sets, I feel that a return of 15 /9which he seems more than capable of producing) would be more than enough to cover a 20 ace handicap. If it ends up being a long drawn out battle, then perhaps Anderson could pull away on the ace count but a long drawn out battle would suggest that Mayer is serving well too and still 20 seems too much to me! Again, I still don't rate Anderson's serve in the same league as Isner, Raonic or Karlovic. Good luck , folks!
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[QUOTE=macwlod;n3736270]Denisa Allertova to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 10 bet365 It's a risky bet, but I can't resist trying Allertova at those odds for small stakes. Wozniacki isn't playing at her best, she doesn't feel comfortable on grass, never made it past last 16 in Wimbledon. Allertova is a very gifted player, she's improving all the time and I'm sure she can put up a fight. If Wozniacki has one of her worse days, it may be a surprise of the day. I will also try a combo: Karlovic, Ward, Pospisil @ 12 GL!![/QUOTE] Agreed! It's a great price and she certainly has a chance! I think she could push Wozniacki....not quite sure if she has the experience to actually see out the win but it could be worth covering the bet if she finds herself in a winning position! Certainly worth a bet though :)
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Agreed! It's a great price and she certainly has a chance! I think she could push Wozniacki....not quite sure if she has the experience to actually see out the win but it could be worth covering the bet if she finds herself in a winning position! Certainly worth a bet though :)Denisa Allertova to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 10 bet365 It's a risky bet, but I can't resist trying Allertova at those odds for small stakes. Wozniacki isn't playing at her best, she doesn't feel comfortable on grass, never made it past last 16 in Wimbledon. Allertova is a very gifted player, she's improving all the time and I'm sure she can put up a fight. If Wozniacki has one of her worse days, it may be a surprise of the day. I will also try a combo: Karlovic, Ward, Pospisil @ 12 GL!! -
Back Cornet to beat Govortsova today at 3-4 with Sportingbet. I cannot believe that Cornet is not at least 4-9 here! She has a 3-1 head-to-head win record against Govortsova. (In fairness one of the wins was a Govortsova retirement and Govortsova's only win came on grass in the Wimbledon qualifiers in 2007, but that is when Cornet was a teenager and she is a completely different beast now). Cornet played very well here last year when she beat Schmiedlova, Cetkovska and none other than the great Serena Williams before losing a tight 2 setter against the (on-fire at the time) Bouchard! She also destroyed the much celebrated youngster Ana Konjuh in the first round this year and looked very tuned in. Govortsova is in very good form and came through qualifying very comfortably before destroying Mitu one and one in the first round. Govortsova is no doubt talented and was striking the ball very well but Mitu could barely keep the ball in play for more than 5 shots so I think the scoreline is a little flattering to Govortsova. Cornet is a big step up and has a much better grand slam record than Govortsova and even if it does become a close match (and I don't doubt that Govortsova is capable of really troubling Cornet), it is Cornet who I expect to come through as I think she is more mentally tough than Govortsova , who I've seen choke in big games many times in the past!
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Back Cornet to beat Govortsova today at 3-4 with Sportingbet. I cannot believe that Cornet is not at least 4-9 here! She has a 3-1 head-to-head win record against Govortsova. (In fairness one of the wins was a Govortsova retirement and Govortsova's only win came on grass in the Wimbledon qualifiers in 2007, but that is when Cornet was a teenager and she is a completely different beast now). Cornet played very well here last year when she beat Schmiedlova, Cetkovska and none other than the great Serena Williams before losing a tight 2 setter against the (on-fire at the time) Bouchard! She also destroyed the much celebrated youngster Ana Konjuh in the first round this year and looked very tuned in. Govortsova is in very good form and came through qualifying very comfortably before destroying Mitu one and one in the first round. Govortsova is no doubt talented and was striking the ball very well but Mitu could barely keep the ball in play for more than 5 shots so I think the scoreline is a little flattering to Govortsova. Cornet is a big step up and has a much better grand slam record than Govortsova and even if it does become a close match (and I don't doubt that Govortsova is capable of really troubling Cornet), it is Cornet who I expect to come through as I think she is more mentally tough than Govortsova , who I've seen choke in big games many times in the past!
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Soler-Espinosa to beat Sesil Karatancheva at 6-4 with Boyles. This girl , Soler-Espinosa, has been flying under the radar for years really and I am still baffled as to why the bookies still never take her seriously. She is basically a solid journeywoman who generally tends to beat who she is supposed to beat and rarely ever makes it deep into big tournaments and rarely records shock victories versus big names which is possibly why she still flies under the radar a bit. But s...he actually has a very solid grand slam record and even though she is probably considered to be more of a clay court player , she has actually won each of her first round matches at the last 3 Wimbledons. She has played against players on a similar level to Karatancheva : Gallovits in 2012, Doi in 2013 and Govortsova in 2014. She also has some good from to draw from. She pushed Kvitova to three sets in the French open and reached the final of an ITF tournament in Montpellier last week before losing to veteran clay courter, Dominguez Lino. Another factor that is well worth considering is the head-to- head. Soler-Espinosa leads the head to head 3-1 and has basically hammered Karatancheva in straights the last three times that they have played. Yes, none of those meetings were on grass but it still seems to point to match -up problem for Karatancheva! As for Karatancheva, she is having a pretty good season to be fair. She beat Jankovic at the French but Jankovic played horribly and Karatancheva then went on to lose to Falconi in the next round which doesn't inspire confidence. She has the advantage of having played a match on grass already this year but she lost in straights to Dellaqua so that also doesn't inspire confidence. She also does not have a good record at Wimbledon. Due to her good form this year, this is the first season that she has not had to qualify for Wimbledon but before this year she has failed to qualify for Wimbledon for the last 4 years!! I just think Soler-Espinosa is consistently under-rated in these match ups. She is a very solid match player with a good temperament and a solid game. No major weapons but she doesn't make many mistakes and both the head to-head record and her record at Wimbledon is enough to convince me that, at the very least, she should be favourite! Which is why the 6-4 seems like great value smile emoticon Good luck folks and feel free to disagree!
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Soler-Espinosa to beat Sesil Karatancheva at 6-4 with Boyles. This girl , Soler-Espinosa, has been flying under the radar for years really and I am still baffled as to why the bookies still never take her seriously. She is basically a solid journeywoman who generally tends to beat who she is supposed to beat and rarely ever makes it deep into big tournaments and rarely records shock victories versus big names which is possibly why she still flies under the radar a bit. But s...he actually has a very solid grand slam record and even though she is probably considered to be more of a clay court player , she has actually won each of her first round matches at the last 3 Wimbledons. She has played against players on a similar level to Karatancheva : Gallovits in 2012, Doi in 2013 and Govortsova in 2014. She also has some good from to draw from. She pushed Kvitova to three sets in the French open and reached the final of an ITF tournament in Montpellier last week before losing to veteran clay courter, Dominguez Lino. Another factor that is well worth considering is the head-to- head. Soler-Espinosa leads the head to head 3-1 and has basically hammered Karatancheva in straights the last three times that they have played. Yes, none of those meetings were on grass but it still seems to point to match -up problem for Karatancheva! As for Karatancheva, she is having a pretty good season to be fair. She beat Jankovic at the French but Jankovic played horribly and Karatancheva then went on to lose to Falconi in the next round which doesn't inspire confidence. She has the advantage of having played a match on grass already this year but she lost in straights to Dellaqua so that also doesn't inspire confidence. She also does not have a good record at Wimbledon. Due to her good form this year, this is the first season that she has not had to qualify for Wimbledon but before this year she has failed to qualify for Wimbledon for the last 4 years!! I just think Soler-Espinosa is consistently under-rated in these match ups. She is a very solid match player with a good temperament and a solid game. No major weapons but she doesn't make many mistakes and both the head to-head record and her record at Wimbledon is enough to convince me that, at the very least, she should be favourite! Which is why the 6-4 seems like great value smile emoticon Good luck folks and feel free to disagree!
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That time of year again! Very exciting :) Hopefully we can pick some winners!
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That time of year again! Very exciting :) Hopefully we can pick some winners!
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Re: French Open 2015
Great work mate! I had a big bet on Elias though I should have followed you on the other two. Marchenko , in particular was great value!Back Ilya Marchenko to beat Evgeny Donskoy for a 7/10 stake at 3.00 with Bet365 Back Gastao Elias to beat Facundo Arguello for a 7/10 stake at 2.20 with Bet365 Back Stephane Robert to beat Andre Ghem for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365 Back Luca Vanni to beat Andrey Golubev for a 7/10 stake at 2.02 with Unibet Marchenko has a 3-1 record over Donskoy, so he certainly looks worth a punt to me at 3.00 tomorrow. Elias crushed Arguello when the two last met and he isn't the worse player of the two in my opinion, while both Robert and Vanni look superior to their tomorrow's opponents. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/french-open-betting-last-main-draw-spots-up-for-grabs -
Re: French Open 2015 Haha, yeah he surely did take the scenic route!! He was absolutely coasting and was clearly the better player but sometimes you can get involved in a scrap! When he blew the two match points at 6-5 , I thought it was lost but thankfully he held it together and came through in the end! Really and truly he should have finished it at 6-2, 6-4 but we'll take the win! :)
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Re: French Open 2015 Stephane Robert to beat Ande Ghem at 6-5. Seconding Czech punter here. I can't quite understand why Robert is underdog here. Robert may be the oldest man left in the qualifiers but I believe he can use his experience to get over the line on this one. Andre Ghem has hit a career high of 142 this year at the old age of 32 but when you look at his results this performance has been more due to consistency on clay in the challengers and he hasn't really beaten anyone of note to reach this position. Sure, he beat Montanes in the second round of the qualifiers here but Montanes is a shadow of his former self these days. Robert has been out of action for a long while due to injury and this is why his ranking is at 550. But he has plenty of big match experience and his wins over Gonzalez and Lamisine bode pretty well, in my opinion. I just think that he is the classier player here. He will have no problem playing the lefty here as his backhand down the line (world class) is ne of his best shots and Ghem's one handed backhand is his weaker shot. Robert is a player who has an Atp title under his belt with a comprehensive win over Feliciano Lopez a few years back in South Africa. He also has produced some of his best tennis at the French with a win over Tomas Berdych no less, under his belt a few years back. I remember watching his Wimbledon first round match against Kyrigios which he lost in 4 sets last year (and we all know what Kyrgios went on to achieve in that tournament) and was quite impressed with his overall standard of play. I just think he is both the more talented player and the player most likely to handle the pressure of the occasion. He is used to these qualifying tournaments and gets through more often than not while Ghem at 32 has never qualified for a grand slam before(to my knowledge) and that could be a factor. Sure, that could make him even more motivated but Robert at 35 knows that his opportunities to grace the Roland Garros courts are running out and he should be fully motivated with good French support to handle the big points better. I wouldn't put huges stakes on it but I still think Robert represents the value as the underdog here.
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Re: Australian Open 2015 Milos Raonic minus 5.5 verses Becker at 4-6 with 888sports. Becker lost the first 2 sets against Hewitt 6-1 and 6-2 before Hewitt blew it really (granted Becker’s game improved as the match went on). I don’t expect Raonic to be quite as charitable here. Raonic only beatMarchenko by 5 games and Young by 7 but it’s getting serious now and I expecthim to raise his game here. Becker makes too many unforced errors from the back of the court so I can't quite see him manage to keep this match to 3 tight sets. He’s too inconsistent not to lose at least one set 6-1 or 6-2 for me and even if he doesn’t , I can still see Raonic covering the handicap because I’d be verysurprised if Becker makes much in-roads on Raonic’s serve or if he managed totake 2 of the sets to tie-breaks. Even if he won a set, I wouldn’t lose hope of the handicap being covered though it would be worrying I guess. I wouldn’t advise big stakes but it seems like the stand out handicap bet of tonight’s action to me J
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Re: Australian Open 2015
Ithink Haider Maurer is a bit under-rated here. I think it could be reasonablytight. Isner may well cover the line but I wouldn’t back it. I’ve seen HaiderMaurer play matches where his serve has been on fire so I can see a couple oftie-breaks. He seems to like to play seeded players as well...he has went 5sets against Soderling at the US open when Robin was in his prime,he’s taken a set off Almagro at the French, beatenGulbis at the US open, taken a set off Nalbandian at Wimbledon and last year hetook a set off Cilic in Wimbledon and his latest outing in a slam was a 5 set loss to Bautista-Agut at the US openwho is a quality player. I agree that, judging by his results, he doesn’t seem tolike to play big servers but I don’t see him being a push over all the same. InIsner’s favour, Haider-maurer does seemto have concentration lapses or have a tendency to tank sets in these 5 set matches(6-1 or 6-2)so even though I would not be surprised to see Isner in a dog fightfor this reason he still may cover the handicap. Haider-maurer doesn’t really have a strongweapon to unbalance Isner (very average forehand , in particular) but he iscrafty and not afraid to come to net which is a good tactic against John. Forme , you could make a good case for either line of the handicap and I’d beinclined to leave it but best of luck anyway. I like your other bets though.You have persuaded me to have a punt on Nieminen. His first round result bodeswell.Back John Isner (-5) to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer for a 8/10 stake at 2.02 with Pinnacle Expect this to be a trademark Isner match - easy holds and eventual breaks due to the pressure generated by those easy holds. Hard to see Haider-Maurer serving well for the entire duration of the match, the American should break him down eventually. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/isner-vs-haider-maurer-betting-john-isner-to-cover-the-handicap-line-against-the-austrian -
Re: Australian Open 2015 I like this bet!
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Re: January 12 - January 18 Just with regards the last round of the qualifiers tonight...my gut instincts are for small single bets on Kudraytsev and Puetz. I also like Kubot-Govortsova double at 10-11. Think the Beck- Bachinger match will be close...if anything the value lies with Beck but I'll stay away. Any thoughts??
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Re: Australian Open 2015 Andrey Kuznetsov to beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas at EVENS with Stan James. This is the first bet that stands out to me. Kuznetsov has really established himself as a steady grand slam performer over the last 12 months. His last two grand slam outings have resulted in third round outings and what is most impressive about that is that he had to beat some good players to do so. He knocked David Ferrer out of the second round of Wimbledon and he beat Verdasco in the second round of the USopen. He beat them both in 5 sets which shows that he has a good temperament forthe fight. He also took a set off Andy Murray in the third round of the US openbefore losing in 4 tight sets. So this gives you a good idea of the level he iscapable of playing. He already has a few matches under his belt this year in theHappy Valleyy challenger with two good straight sets wins over Thompson andOdesnik before losing in 3 against the promising Andrew Harris. His opponentRamos Vinolas has been around a few years now without ever really ever makingany impact at the grand slams. He had a strong finish to 2014 with a fewchallenger wins but most of his good results have been on clay. Kuznetsov’sweakness is probably his defensive skills (and concentration at times) but Idon’t think Ramos- Vinolas has the weight of shot to trouble him too much here.In fact, I am so surprised that Stan James consider Kuznetsov to be an underdoghere that I am suspicious that he may have picked up an injury that I don’tknow about yet so if anybody has any information on that I would be grateful toreceive it. Presuming he is fit, I think he has far more game thanRamos-Vinolas and I expect him to rise to the occasion for the third grand slamin a row to bag a first round win here. I consider him to be a warm favourite.Good luck folks.
September 26 - October 2
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Thankfully, you were right!! And I am also happy she got the job done in two. Jeez, is Wuhan the only tournament that players are expected to play 6 matches in one week??