Carlisle Blue

Good shout on Middx Dog! It certainmy was an exciting game to watch. Warwickshire continued on their upward curve with a convincing win against Glamorgan. Yorkshire lost wickets too often when they were trying to tee off and in the end had to slow the pace down to ensure they got through their 50 overs. And if they hadn't they could well have lost the game. Obviously a lot of fancies in tomorrow's games and hopefully we can get a clean sweep! Looking forward to Wednesday I think it might be a quiet day even though there are quite a few interesting looking games. The reason for this is that 3 of the games are at provincial locations. Taking Glamorgan for an example they are playing on a reclaimed sand bank in the Mumbles where it makes a difference as to whether the tide is in or out at the toss as it affects the amount of swing available when bowling. You can't be betting serious cash on matches like this lol! Yorkshire are playing in Scarborough and Essex are at home to Middx but playing in grounds of a castle! Yes Yorkshire should beat a Somerset side blooding youngsters and Essex should beat Middx but I doubt the prices will be attractive and there is the possibility of a surprise result.

I am going to move on to thoughts for Tuesday. And having had a rethink on the approach on strategy on how to approach this from a betting perspective I have decided on taking my three best options in a treble as bankers and adding 2 more for a four and a five fold. So three bets! In terms of staking it will be 50% on the treble, 25% on the 4 fold and 25% on the 5 fold. My treble will be: Nottinghamshire to bt Lancashire, Surrey to bt Worcestershire, Hampshire to bt Essex. For the 4 fold I will add Derbyshire to bt Leicestershire and finally for the 5 fold Durham to bt Gloucestershire. Nottinghamshire take on Lancashire at Aigburth in Liverpool. I have done a bit of research on the pitch there and it seems that it always one of the better wickets on Lancashire provincial circuit so I am happy the quality will be fine. Notts are still unbeaten after beating Essex at Chelsford and the difference of the recent addition of Imran Tahir was there for everyone to see today. Even though Notts lost 3 wickets relatively quickly Patel and Taylor saw them through all the way to the end and they still had batting to come out of the hutch. Lancashire look to be regressing and could do with a game or two that could give them a confidence boost. I don't think they will find it here. There is just to much quality in their opposition. I don't think I have to say too much about the reasons why I am opposing Worcestershire on the road against Surrey if I am honest. Every reason has been written in this thread earlier. Some might be surprised I've thrown Hampshire in the treble. There are two reasons for this a) my belief that Essex are a much worser team on the road b) I was really impressed with the 2 Hants spinners today Crane and Dawson and towards the end of the season when the wickets are more of a dust bowl the ability to tie up 2 ends with spin is very useful. Essex have more of a seam based attack and I think this will make the difference ultimately and give Hants the win. I have been waiting for the right game to get with Derbyshire and a home match against Leicestershire looks ideal. Derbyshire have been very unlucky they lost their game against Glos due to a no ball on the last ball of the match due to not enough players on one side of the pitch. And they lost a narrow game to Yorkshire on duckworth. But they do have decent batting depth and a reasonable seam attack. Fairly confident they will put one in the win column on Tuesday. I've opposed Durham in their last 2 matches against Surrey and Yorkshire but they take a step down in grade of opposition here where it is all about one man. Get Klinger out as soon as possible! I reckon Rushworth and Hastings can do that job here. I think they have enough quality to bring the win in.

Middlesex have won the toss and are batting. I am about 2 miles from where this game is being played and it is a beautiful morning for batting. Radlett is a small ground so I will be very disappointed if Middx can't rack up a big first innings score 330+. If you haven't taken the price on Middx you have 10 mins.

I reckon I am looking good for three winners today. I can't see Warwickshire winning from their current situation but Chelmsford is a funny little ground, it ain't over till it's over there. I am sticking one up for tomorrow now as the price according to oddschecker is dropping but is still available at Bet365. I fancy Kent at 13/10 to beat Hampshire. Kent were so unlucky not to beat Glamorgan last night due to the wet conditions affecting ball control. But they have got themselves a really nice little limited overs team with the emerging Bell-Drummond and Denly who has showed improved form since returning to Kent after a disastrous spell at Middx. They kick the innings off and set things up for the powerhouses in Northeast, Billings, Stevens and Blake. If Kent can get through 15 overs without losing a wicket the game is pretty much theirs. That doesn't just apply to this match tomorrow! Their bowling unit is decent and has benefited from the return of Matt Coles, Stevens and Claydon bowl wicket to wicket and supported by probably the best English spin option not currently under consideration for the national team Treadwell. They are in good form they made a cakewalk of winning the T20 group and haven't missed not having an international player this season. Hampshire are obviously a very dangerous unit but from a batting perspective once you get past Adams, Vince and Carbs there isn't THAT much left for me. Their bowling unit is decent similarly matched to Kent's wicket to wicket with a good spin option. I just think Kent have a bit more depth in their batting for me. Was rather surprised to see Hants were favourites if I am honest

The mornings bets are going ok with the main bet Lancashire looking very good for the win. And I will be happy Durham don't have to chase anymore than c 300 which I think is achievable with a good start I am going to add Essex this afternoon to beat Warwickshire. I was a little bit reticent to add them this morning as their last match was decided on the toss. But apparently the pitch is going to favour a seam attack, and whilst Warwickshire have Chris Woakes he looked a little short of match practice in their last game and otherwise their best bowlers are spin based. Essex are in good form and have been targetting this competition and are in the knockouts of the 20/20. I have watched Warwickshire on a few occasions in the 20/20 and I have felt that they have been a bit flakey with the bat once McCullum got out. Well I am afraid McCullum don't play in the Royal London. Johnathon Trott is pushing for a recall for Warwickshire but he will probably need a run out or two to get back to form as well. Essex are freely available at 4/5 and are worth an interest this afternoon

It would have been a nice one Kev. I wouldn't have minded so much if he got himself out but he got run out on a dodgy call from Andrew Gale :( Good luck with the Nottinghamshire call will be following you in as always!

Outstanding call on Lancashire Kev the way you read between the lines of Durham's problem with spin and variable pace was excellent. I read the preview on the train home after it had started but still managed to get 5/4 when Durham were 4 wickets down. Well done sir!

Thursday TV preview: 4pts Lancashire to beat Durham 5/4 Boylesports I don’t see a whole lot between these two sides so there is immediately an instinct to lean towards Lancashire in this match but when you dig a little deeper into the recent Durham matches one thing jumps out. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/durham-vs-lancashire-betting-big-game-for-both-as-north-group-hots-up

Friday TV preview: 5pts Birmingham Bears to beat Lancashire 8/11 Coral One thing in favour of Lancashire apart from their record in the fixture is Ashley Giles will know how the Bears work but Birmingham have been going along very nicely and now they have Brendon McCullum to give them that X-Factor so Iâ??m firmly with the champions here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/lancashire-vs-birmingham-bears-betting-old-trafford-stages-repeat-of-2014-final