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  1. Thanks
    ivailobg reacted to allthethings in Non-League Predictions > 29th May   
    I have the two big home dogs as well, though with lower odds of 4.50 and 3.80. But I'm also watching three away dogs in the 3.30 (Notts Co) to 3.70 (Maidenhead and Wealdstone) range. It's not a typical season, but in typical seasons these types of away dogs do very well during the last round, 7-7-6 by my count over the past decade. Only Bromley have anything to play for (against County), but that doesn't seem to matter this time of year, as a 9th or would-be 7th place side are as likely to bottle it under pressure as win. If any of these matches remain in that range by kickoff, I'll be on the dogs at best odds.
  2. Thanks
    ivailobg reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 29th May   
    So we finally get to the final day of the regular season. It has been strange just focusing on the one league since January and it has made things tricky at times, but May especially has been a good month. Hopefully we can end it with a profit on Saturday and I have 4 bets.
    Altrincham v Torquay
    Altrincham had been struggling for a while, but a dramatic 4-3 win against Yeovil and a 1-1 draw against Eastleigh on Tuesday night mean they are ending the season in strong fashion. They played really well on Tuesday against a side of course who are going for the play-offs. I think the crowd helped in that regard and I can see them getting a result here. Torquay can only finish 2nd now and I would imagine they wont want to risk injuries to key players ahead of the play-offs especially as they have suffered from injuries during the season which has probably cost them the title. With that in mind Altrincham are over priced at 4/1.
    Barnet v Sutton
    Sutton sealed the title on Sunday with a very good performance over Hartlepool and they have been so consistent since last January. The job is done and they wont really care what happens in their final non-league game for now. I don't really need to repeat my thoughts on Barnet and their improvement and they won for us again on Tuesday night. Their first goal was a cracking move as well and after getting a point at Torquay last week I think they have a real chance of picking up 3 here. 6/1 is a crazy price in the circumstances and they should be at least half that if not shorter.
    Kings Lynn v Aldershot
    I am actually backing the home side here. They did well with a crowd behind them on Tuesday night against Solihull and with Aldershot not really convincing of late especially away from home I think there is some value in backing Kings Lynn to pick up 3 points.
    Solihull v Eastleigh
    Speaking of Solihull they did at least keep their unbeaten run going and as I have mentioned a few times their home form has been really strong. Not surprisingly they are drifting because Eastleigh need to win this to give them any sort of chance of getting into the play-offs, but I just get a feeling they are running out of steam based on their performance on Tuesday at Altrincham and they could have had a much easier game than facing a Solihull side who have won 8 of their last 9 home games and the one they didn't win was a 0-0 draw against Sutton. I am more than happy to take a chance on them making it 9/10 home victories.
    Altrincham 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365
    Barnet 1pt @ 6/1 with William Hill
    Kings Lynn 1pt @ 8/5 with William Hill
    Solihull 1pt @ 14/5 with William Hill
  3. Thanks
    ivailobg reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 8th   
    Another cracking day on bank holiday Monday with 4 winning bets out of 5. I have two bets for Saturday and they pretty much write themselves.
    Wealdstone v Dagenham & Redbridge
    I watched Dagenham's match against Woking and I did get a bit worried in the 2nd half that they might blow it when Woking pulled a goal back, but in the end they added a 3rd and it was a comfortable success. Opposing Wealdstone also paid off on Monday as they lost 4-0 to Stockport. I struggle to see how Dagenham don't cover the -1 handicap yet again here given how many goals they are scoring and how many Wealdstone are conceding. In my view it should be odds on so odds against looks very good.
    Woking v Chesterfield
    Not surprisingly I am taking great pleasure in Chesterfield's drop in form and performances. They looked pretty hopeless last Saturday against Hartlepool especially in the first half where they conceded 3 goals. They followed that up with losing 2-0 to Torquay, but those two games are a world away from facing a Woking side who could hardly be further away from two teams fighting it out for the title. Chesterfield are desperate for the 3 points and they really ought to get them. They should be looking to boost their goal difference as well given how tight it is for the final 3 play-off spots so the -1 handicap makes plenty of appeal here as well.
    Dagenham & Redbridge -1 4pts @ 5/4 with Betfair
    Chesterfield -1 2pts @ 15/8 with Bet365, Betfair and Betfred
  4. Like
    ivailobg got a reaction from MABS in Last Man Standing - Week 10 (Deadline Sat 3pm) (FINISHED)   
    Congrats to both winners!
  5. Thanks
    ivailobg got a reaction from Redno2009 in Last Man Standing - Week 10 (Deadline Sat 3pm) (FINISHED)   
    Congrats to both winners!
  6. Like
    ivailobg reacted to Foo_Fighter in PDC World Championships 2021   
    Ratajski to beat Bunting at 1.5 with bet365
    Anderson to beat Van Duijvenbode at 1.8 with bet365 
    Gurney to beat Price at 3.00 with bet365
    MvG to beat Chisnall at 1.2 with bet365
    Gurney is definitely back to his best form so I can see him beating Price today. Ratajski is way better than Bunting so he should come through here. Anderson 🆚 vD hmm obviously both very good players, but in the end I believe Gary will prevail somehow. Not much to say about MvG, he's the clear favorite to win the whole thing, let alone tonight's match against Chisnall.
    Wishing everyone a happy new year, health and happiness to all of you guys. 

  7. Like
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in PDC World Championships 2021   
    There wasn't much I liked in the first two matches. I fancied Anderson but I had an outright quarter bet with Van Duijvenbode, so I left it alone. Once it went 1-1 in sets, Van Duijvenbode gave up. Bit poor really. Experience really does mean alot in the latter stages of these events. That's what makes Rob Cross's win all that more impressive in his debut year.
    Would love to see Gurney win this now, I must admit. I think he is playing some real solid stuff and I give him a chance tonight. Chisnall has a chance too if he can score like he did the last round but ofcourse he wont. No doubt he'll bottle it. 

    3pts D. Gurney to beat G. Price 2/1 bet365
    3pts D. Chisnall to get most 180s and lose match evens paddypower
    0.5pt outsider bet -  Chisnall to win match, most 180s and highest checkout / Gurney to win match and most 180s 401/ paddypower
    1pt double - Chisnall most 180s and lose / Gurney most 180s and lose 5.2/1 paddypower

  8. Like
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in PDC Home Tour   
    Meulenkamp couldn't take advantage of there being no Smith. In for Smith came Boulton and Boulton was the winner. Meulenkamp only lost one match and that was to Boulton. Who normally plays more like Michael Boulton but made an exception. I didn't have too much of an opinion on todays group. It was of high quality with Ratajski, Smith, Searle and Whitlock. I probably would have gone for Whitlock but Ryan Searle put in some huge averages to win the group
    Tomorrow, Michael Smith is back again and his only opposition looks to be Chris Dobey I've seen that Dobey has been practicing alot with Wattimena and hitting some big averages against him. I think it's worth giving him a shot tomorrow as Smith looks abit lackluster in his performance's.
    3pts C.Dobey to win the group 10/3 betvictor
    Home Tour 3 tips -3pts
    Darts 2020  +122.5pts
  9. Like
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in PDC Home Tour   
    Another Home Tour gets underway tomorrow. The Grand Slam won't be until after 7pm and so more darts throughout the day tomorrow. Here is the lineup for Group A :
    W.Borland C.Wilkinson K.Huybrechts J.Henderson H.Leitinger S.Beaton S.Brown I've backed Wilkinson a couple of times now over the course of this year and most of the time he gives me a run for my money. This group looks pretty weak to me and I think he has a chance. 
    2pts C.Wilkinson to win Group A 12/1 paddypower
  10. Like
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in PDC Home Tour   
    not good enough with Wilko. Ended third or forth. Another group tomorrow :
    long over are the days we'd get a good price on Ross Smith in these things. He's abit too short for me now. I'll take a couple of outsiders in the shape of Andy Hamilton and Daniel Larsson.
    2pts A.Hamilton to win Group B 6/1 bet365
    1pt D.Larsson to win Group B 18/1 paddypower
  11. Like
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in PDC World Cup   
    5pts Austrlia to beat Ireland 4/5 betfair
  12. Like
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in PDC World Cup   
    Netherlands and England have dominated this event through the years but there is a distinct feeling that this is a wide open event. MVG doesn't look like the MVG of old. England have players who are both having issues and Scotland are a 100/1 shot instead of favourites with Gary Anderson and Peter Wright both missing.
    England take on Phillipines in the first and you wonder if the Phillipines are a spot of value in that match. Cross hasn't been right for ages and Smith's doubling has been pretty poor.
    time is against me here so here's my picks
    2pts E/W Germany to win World Cup 14/1 bet365
    1pt E/W Australia to win World Cup 28/1 betfair
    1pt E/W Poland to win World Cup 40/1 paddypower
    0.5pts E/W Hong Kong to win World Cup 150/1 skybet
    0.5pts E/W S.Africa to win World Cup 200/1 betfair
  13. Like
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in Last Man Standing - Week 6 (Deadline 8pm Fri) (FINISHED)   
    There will be a thread when we do the next LMS. Most likely in a few weeks.
  14. Like
    ivailobg got a reaction from Gazza's United in Last Man Standing - Week 6 (Deadline 8pm Fri) (FINISHED)   
    Thank you! It's been a lot of fun and pleasure!
    Congratulations to cookro and Larkin22!
  15. Like
    ivailobg reacted to ProfessorMJ in TOP 4 NFL PICKS WEEK 7 (INCLUDING A 5-STAR BET!!!) by Stats Prof! Bet Chiefs or Broncos? SEA or ARI?   
    Written Thursday October 22nd, 2020 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
    This week we’ve got just our second 5-star play of the 2020 season!
    The only other one was Arizona +7 against the 49ers in Week #1, a bet that easily covered since the Cards won the game straight up by a margin of four points.
    Such picks rated 5 stars have done very well since I started this “Professor MJ” brand a few years ago.
    That being said, I’m not suggesting to bet your house on it. You’ll never hear me talk about “the lock of the century” or “100% guaranteed winner” or any similar bull$$hit. There is always risk involved. Bet at your own risk and never bet an amount that you cannot afford to lose.
    Wow, picking the lowly Jets as a five-star play is pretty bold, isn’t it?
    Adam Gase’s team is 0-6 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this year.
    Since 1985, six teams have started the season with six straight losses both SU and ATS. How did these teams fare in the remainder of their season? They went 34-24 ATS, a 58.6% win rate.
    I like the Jets for many other reasons.
    The rest factor is in favor of New York since the Bills are coming off a Monday night game. Also, NFL teams tend to do very well in the rematch against a division rival after losing the first meeting of the season. In this case, Buffalo won 27-17 in Week #1, which makes the Jets a good play based on this betting angle.
    Finally, the Bills have been struggling a lot recently. They blew a 25-point lead against the Rams before escaping with the win, thanks to a questionable pass interference penalty on fourth down in the final drive. They got hammered 42-16 against a depleted Titans team two weeks ago.
    Last week, losing 26-17 against the Chiefs may not look bad on paper, but if you watched the game you know what I’m talking about. The Bills were out of sync on offense, where Josh Allen looked more like the 2018 or 2019 version of himself. And their defense was gashed on the ground by allowing 5.3 yards per carry. This unit was supposed to be among the league’s best, but they an average of 28 points per game.
    Meanwhile, Sam Darnold has a shot to be back under center. He is a big improvement over Joe Flacco, and he would finally have some weapons around him with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and maybe rookie Denzel Mims who could make his NFL debut.
    Some bookies have already lowered their spread to 12, but at the time I’m making this video BetOnline still has 13. This is where I placed my bet. I really like New York to cover in this one.
    Over the last nine meetings between these two clubs, Kansas City holds an 8-1 record ATS. If you focus on games played in Denver only, the Chiefs have beaten the spread on six consecutive occasions.
    Sure, Kansas City loses one day of rest after playing the Monday nighter. But in my opinion, elite teams fare well when facing adversity. They are a well-coached team and it won’t affect them that much.
    The Broncos are coming off a nice upset win in New England. Quarterback Drew Lock made two incredibly bad decisions that almost gave the game away, but he should be thankful that his defense saved the day.
    Denver’s offense struggled most of the day and couldn’t score more than 18 points despite the Pats turning the ball over three times. They won’t be able to keep up with KC’s offense, who are unlikely to take them lightly, considering it’s a divisional game.
    I feel like the public is getting overexcited following Tampa’s convincing win over the Packers. It was indeed an impressive outing where emotions were high, which makes this non-conference matchup a trap game for them.
    Las Vegas is also coming off their bye week, which is always a nice advantage.
    Tampa’s top three receivers (Evans-Godwin-Miller) are all likely to play, but are nursing injuries. On the defensive side of the ball, the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea for the rest of the year was a big blow and is an underrated loss for this squad. They also have three good guys on defense who are listed as questionable: LB Lavonte David and DEs Jason Pierre-Paul and William Gholston.
    The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs, the Saints and the Panthers, while losing to Buffalo and New England. In other words, there wasn’t a single easy opponent (Carolina was expected to be weak, but they are off to a nice start).
    I’m taking the Raiders as home underdogs here.
    Seattle is coming off their bye week, while the Cards lose one day of preparation after playing the Monday night game. Arizona also had to travel on three straight weeks prior to this week, which isn’t easy.
    I’m pretty sure the Seahawks remember the last time they faced Kliff Kingsbury’s squad: a 27-13 home loss in Week #16 that hurt their chances of clinching a first-round bye. Payback time!
    Over the last 11 meetings between these two rivals, the road team has a 9-1-1 record ATS. Please note that the “under” was a winning bet in each of the last five matchups.
    As mentioned last week, I also like to back road favorites coming off a bye week. A reminder that such teams showed a jaw-dropping 15-1-2 ATS record over four seasons (they went 1-1 last week though).
    Best of luck with your plays and I’ll see you again next week!
    Professor MJ
    Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
    FB: ProfessorMJ
  16. Like
    ivailobg reacted to PercyP in NFL week 7 - PercyP   
    Washigton looked poor against the Giants. Dallas  to win -1 @ 20/21
    Falcons have Julio Jones back. Falcons fly -2.5 @ 10/11
    Aaron Rogers does not do two bad games. Packers to win -3.5 @ 20/21
    The chargers should see off the Jags. Chargers -7.5 @ 20/21
    Superbowl runners up the 49ers have been plauged by injury. They are beginning to show signs of a return to form. 49ers +2.5 @ 10/11.
    My bet £1 canadian plus £4 roll up. £30 ( all prices and spreads bet365).
    Season record W7 L3 ATS profit £239.
  17. Thanks
    ivailobg got a reaction from Larkin22 in Last Man Standing - Week 6 (Deadline 8pm Fri) (FINISHED)   
    Thank you! It's been a lot of fun and pleasure!
    Congratulations to cookro and Larkin22!
  18. Like
    ivailobg got a reaction from avongirl in Last Man Standing - Week 6 (Deadline 8pm Fri) (FINISHED)   
    Thank you! It's been a lot of fun and pleasure!
    Congratulations to cookro and Larkin22!
  19. Like
    ivailobg got a reaction from Fader in Last Man Standing - Week 6 (Deadline 8pm Fri) (FINISHED)   
    Thank you! It's been a lot of fun and pleasure!
    Congratulations to cookro and Larkin22!
  20. Thanks
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in Last Man Standing - Week 6 (Deadline 8pm Fri) (FINISHED)   
    If neither of you are picking Aston Villa or Leeds tonight then I will allow a 12.30 saturday deadline 
  21. Thanks
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in Euro Tour   
    Euro tour 3 gets underway today. 3 huge price outsiders for me and 3 slightly more likely. Bottom line in this is I would expect Price to win this but in these events we've seen some big prices get to the latter stages. Once again Price Vs Petersen will be a key match for his chances. 

    1.5pts E/W K.Ratajski to win Euro Tour 3 Grand Prix 14/1 bet365
    1.5pts E/W D.Petersen to win Euro Tour 3 Grand Prix 20/1 bet365
    1pt E/W D.Chisnall to win Euro Tour 3 Grand Prix 33/1 bet365
    0.5pts e/w D.Evans to win Euro Tour 3 Grand prix 200/1 paddypower
    0.5pts e/w N.Kurz to win Euro Tour 3 Grand prix 250/1 paddypower
    0.5pts e/w M.King to win Euro Tour 3 Grand Prix 150/1 paddypower
  22. Thanks
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in Euro Tour   
    Could see it very early on in this tournament and that win over Price was key. Devon Petersen wins at 66/1 
    German Darts Championship +103pts
    Darts 2020 - +126pts
  23. Thanks
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in Euro Tour   
    … and indeed they do both win. Semi-finals :
    M.King Vs J.Clayton
    D.Noppert Vs D.Petersen
    * J.Clayton Vs D.Petersen final 
  24. Thanks
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in Euro Tour   
    Very poor from Mensur. What a mad session of darts. MVG is out. Wright is out. Durrant is out. Mensur lets me down for the 14/1 accy but it's money back with Paddy and so -5pts there. Quarter finals draw :
    M.King Vs J.Wade
    J.Clayton Vs D.Chisnall
    D.Noppert Vs D.Gurney
    D.Petersen Vs K.Ratajski
    I thought King looked good but I find he can't keep it going for these long days. Chizzy looked good also and it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the final. In the other half I'm hoping Noppert can beat Gurney and Devon can beat Ratajski but either way this tournament is wide open.
    1pt accy - King / Clayton / Gurney / Ratajski - 16/1 paddypower (money back if one leg loses) 
    Happy to lose the accy if one of Noppert and/or Devon can win
    German Darts Championship +12pts
    Darts 2020 - +35pts
  25. Thanks
    ivailobg reacted to Fader in Euro Tour   
    Third round gets started at noon tomorrow and then we'll have the Quarter-finals, Semi-finals and final all in the same day. It's looking like it's best to be in the bottom half of the draw here, especially now that Price has gone out in Round 2. One I do like the look of tomorrow is Mensur Suljovic to beat James Wade. Mensur didn't look too impressive in the 2nd round but he got the job done with a 96.27 average and he was 2-0 down in that match. James Wade beat Nico Kurz 6-2 and managed a 94.60 average. It's pretty close between the pair but I'm going with Mensur to win this bout.
    There's a few I like the looks of in a few other ties and so I'll try with another 4-fold accy.
    MVG Vs M. King
    M. Suljovic Vs J. Wade
    P. Wright VS J. Clayton
    D. Chisnall Vs N. Aspinall
    M. Hopp Vs D. Noppert
    D. Gurney Vs G. Durrant
    D. Petersen Vs R. Cross
    K. Ratajski Vs J. Cullen
    5pts M.Suljovic to beat J. Wade 11/10 paddypower
    1pt accy - M.Suljovic / D.Noppert / D.Gurney / D.Petersen - 14/1 paddypower (money back if one leg loses)
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