MightyWell

The first legs last week showed that the games at this round of the competition can be very hard to call. TNS losing at home to Europa was obviously the shock result, but when you consider the Kosovan champions losing to their Faroese counterparts and Linfield scraping past La Fiorita, it becomes clear that these teams enter at this stage for a reason.
 
Having said that, the biggest value of the round for me again would be Linfield to beat La Fiorita at 4/9. The odds on a Sammarinese side to lose their 'home' leg (home matches for Sammarinese clubs in Europe are played at San Marino's national stadium rather than their own grounds) are usually between 1/10 and 1/3. In 34 European ties, there has only ever been one instance of a Sammarinese side losing by less than two goals on aggregate. La Fiorita would need to avoid defeat for that scenario to happen again tonight, but their record of 11 defeats from 11 games in European competitions suggests that's unlikely. It's hard to tell whether I overestimated Linfield last week - it's unusual for a Sammarinese side to come so close to avoiding defeat away from home, but from the highlights Linfield did seem to be the better side and I still think 1/5 was a big price. They will know there is no room for complacency in the return leg and at 4/9 look a good price to see the job through with some room to spare.

The bet of the round for me looks to be Linfield to win at home to La Fiorita at 1/5. I would have expected the odds for this to be around the 1/10 mark. Granted, Linfield aren't the strongest side, but they are playing arguably the weakest team in the competition - La Fiorita have played in European competitions for five consecutive seasons now and have lost all 10 games in that time including a 7-0 defeat to Levadia of Estonia and a 10-1 aggregate defeat to Vaduz of Liechtenstein. Looking at the wider picture, since gaining admission into European club competitions in 2000, Sammarinese sides have lost 33 of 34 away games in European competitions, the sole exception being Tre Fiori's draw with Andorran outfit Sant Julia in 2009. Obviously, results from 15 years ago are not going to have a bearing on next Wednesday's game, but it is clear to see that Sammarinese teams are out of their depth at this level, and as such La Fiorita's 100% losing record in Europe looks set to continue on Wednesday.

I think Linfield will probably cover the -1 handicap, but I'm playing it safe with the straight win. In the last three years the Sammarinese champions have only lost by one goal in the first legs of their ties at this stage of the competition, although in all cases the narrow margin of the defeats flattered them by all accounts - I remember keeping track of the Pyunik-Folgore game in 2015 when Pyunik had five attempts on goal in the first ten minutes and racked up 26 efforts on goal to Folgore's 3 in the game yet only won 2-1.
 
Unfortunately the odds on the home win are going down across the board, but even 1/7 is a fairly decent price considering La Fiorita's record as well as that of Sammarinese teams away from home in Europe.

The bet of the round for me looks to be Linfield to win at home to La Fiorita at 1/5. I would have expected the odds for this to be around the 1/10 mark. Granted, Linfield aren't the strongest side, but they are playing arguably the weakest team in the competition - La Fiorita have played in European competitions for five consecutive seasons now and have lost all 10 games in that time including a 7-0 defeat to Levadia of Estonia and a 10-1 aggregate defeat to Vaduz of Liechtenstein. Looking at the wider picture, since gaining admission into European club competitions in 2000, Sammarinese sides have lost 33 of 34 away games in European competitions, the sole exception being Tre Fiori's draw with Andorran outfit Sant Julia in 2009. Obviously, results from 15 years ago are not going to have a bearing on next Wednesday's game, but it is clear to see that Sammarinese teams are out of their depth at this level, and as such La Fiorita's 100% losing record in Europe looks set to continue on Wednesday.

The bet of the round for me looks to be Linfield to win at home to La Fiorita at 1/5. I would have expected the odds for this to be around the 1/10 mark. Granted, Linfield aren't the strongest side, but they are playing arguably the weakest team in the competition - La Fiorita have played in European competitions for five consecutive seasons now and have lost all 10 games in that time including a 7-0 defeat to Levadia of Estonia and a 10-1 aggregate defeat to Vaduz of Liechtenstein. Looking at the wider picture, since gaining admission into European club competitions in 2000, Sammarinese sides have lost 33 of 34 away games in European competitions, the sole exception being Tre Fiori's draw with Andorran outfit Sant Julia in 2009. Obviously, results from 15 years ago are not going to have a bearing on next Wednesday's game, but it is clear to see that Sammarinese teams are out of their depth at this level, and as such La Fiorita's 100% losing record in Europe looks set to continue on Wednesday.

Just having a quick look at the odds and I'm surprised to see Flora as high as 3/10 at home to Gibraltarian champions Lincoln Red Imps. By comparison, The New Saints from Wales are no bigger than 1/10 at home to Sammarinese champions Tre Penne, and I wouldn't say there is any huge difference in the respective gaps between the sides. Consider the performances of the San Marino and Gibraltar national teams in Euro 2016 qualifying - Gibraltar actually fared worse, losing all 10 games and shipping a staggering 56 goals while Marino managed a point and 'only' conceded 36 times. Of course the national teams cannot be used as an exact benchmark for club sides, but here it is worth noting the significant overlap in the Gibraltar and Lincoln Red Imps squads - the club contributed a high number of players to the national team, and it was clear that they were completely out of their depth in Europe. As for Flora, they're obviously no world-beaters themselves - they're playing in this stage of the competition for a reason - but they are one of the stronger Estonian sides, they are 17 games into their league season and so have the match fitness advantage, and they have been solid at home in their domestic season, conceding in only one of their nine home games thus far and racking up 6-0 wins against two of the league's weaker sides. With this in mind, 3/10 for the straight win looks like decent value.