ogii55

Guys, did you saw Cilic - Zverev match. WOW, impressive performance by Zverev. Cilic was very strong as well, but Zverev played Top 5 tennis and showed strong nerves.

Back Paolo Lorenzi (-1.5 sets) to beat Alejandro Falla for a 7/10 stake at 2.34 with Pinnaclesports
I have to say Falla has started this season quite alright just like Lorenzi has. But what makes me pick Lorenzi here is the fact that he has a bit better game for clay then Falla does and his mentallity is more stable too and he does'nt start breaking down in the middle of matches like Falla can do from time to time. The head-2-head is also positive for Lorenzi as he beat him 7-5 6-1 here in Quito last season and in challenger Bogota semi-finals also last season turning the match around winning 3-6 6-2 6-4. The price on Pinnaclesports is also quite high for this to happen. What could make this not come in would be that Lorenzi is tired from last week but I don't think it should have any bigger effect. He had a short match against Escobar and has got some rest after the short final against Melzer in Bucaramanga.

Brands - Troicki 3.4 Boyles
 
The power tennis of Brands seems to suits him very well in Sofia. He already knows very well the hall after three wins here. The surface is very specific, a little bit slower for indoor hard. The German's form is awesome since the start of the season. He is 10/2 winning four matches in Melbourne. He is ready to step up the level.
Troicki won a title in Brisbane, but in the past he showed that he had some problems in translation between hard and i/h. I am not sure if he will be on 100% for this match.

Back John Millman to beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin for a 7/10 stake at 2.20 with BetVictor
Back Paul-Henri Mathieu to beat Benoit Paire for a 7/10 stake at 2.55 with Unibet
Bleh, at least Monfils could've retired with the injury. Two underdogs for me tomorrow, Millman and Mathieu. Mathieu was playing really well against Ymer, attacking tennis full of winners and not a lot of mistakes, an excellent performances really. More of that should give him a good chance against Paire, who is yet to impress anyone this year. Millman was also splendid against Benneteau, so I'm not sure why exactly he should be 2.20 against ERV. ERV did beat Monfils, but it certainly wasn't due to him playing excellent tennis, so I'll go with the better player here - and that's Millman.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/atp-montpellier-day-four-2016020305

Busta (-1.5 sets) - Cervantes 2.2 Pinnacle
 
Busta started very well here and showed that he loves the conditions. He just scored a double wins against #2 seated Raja/Ram, which also is huge plus for him. When Pablo is on form, he is beating weaker opponents convincingly. Cervantes has some luck in his first round match and made 12 double faults with less than 50% first serve in. If he shows such performance, I can't see him taking a set against Busta. The odds are already going down for this proposition. I took it two hours ago at 2.34.

Pablo Carreno-Busta to win Quito tournament 15.58 Pinnacle
 
A typical clay player, who is in the easier part of the draw. He probably will meet Belluci in the 1/4-finals and then Tomic in the semis. Busta showed improvement on hard in his early season matches. In 2014 and 2015 he improved in a steady pace his rankings and I think now is the moment for him to attack the first ATP title. I was impressed how he played in his first round match against Brazilian clay grinder Rogerio Dutra Da Silva, giving him a total of 35 points for the entire match. 

Yep, that really was a crazy match. Vanni was serving like Karlovic in the first set
Back Nicolas Mahut (-1.5) to beat Jan-Lennard Struff for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power
Back Paul-Henri Mathieu (-2.5) to beat Elias Ymer for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power
Back Quentin Halys to beat Ernests Gulbis for a 7/10 stake at 2.75 with Paddy Power
Shouldn't be too hard for Mahut and Mathieu I think. Struff playing poorly right now, while Mahut is on the rise, so I'm even willing to look past the H2H record in that one. Ymer's game isn't really suited to the Montpellier conditions, so I fancy Mathieu against him quite strongly. Finally, you just never know what you're going to get with Gulbis and I wonder how big the motivation will be against an unknown like Halys. The truth is, however, that Halys is an up and coming player that spent the entire last season in French indoors tournaments, so he should fancy himself to get the win here, especially after that strong display in Melbourne.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/atp-montpellier-day-two-2016020103

Andrej Martin - Marcel Granollers 3.1 Unibet
 
Martin is coming from qualification and already made acclimatization on the ATP tournament that is on 2800 m above the sea. Something more, he is in South America since the start of the year, while Granollers is coming from Australia and he is a guy who often has problems against week opponents in the first rounds of the tournaments. The Spaniard never scored good results in South America and it's strange why he decided to go there.
Martin is a 100% clay player, who rarely goes to h/lh/grass tournaments. This is his chance to make a big break after showing some promise on challenger tournaments last year.

Andrej Martin - Marcel Granollers 3.1 Unibet
 
Martin is coming from qualification and already made acclimatization on the ATP tournament that is on 2800 m above the sea. Something more, he is in South America since the start of the year, while Granollers is coming from Australia and he is a guy who often has problems against week opponents in the first rounds of the tournaments. The Spaniard never scored good results in South America and it's strange why he decided to go there.
Martin is a 100% clay player, who rarely goes to h/lh/grass tournaments. This is his chance to make a big break after showing some promise on challenger tournaments last year.

Back Dusan Lajovic (-1.5 sets) to beat Albert Ramos at 4.33 with Bet365
It's a big risk but I just got to try this. Lajovic can be seriously hard to break and I've seen that on hardcourt late last season and it's been obvious so far this season too when he faced Bautista Agut in AO and I think Ramos might get a nasty surprise here facing Lajovic with his quite good serving and baseline skills. As Ogii apointed out hard is also his worst surface and he's started the season well enough on that surface similar to how he finished last season on hard indoors and I suspect he could roll on in south america. Ramos can be a test on clay no doubt but I suspect he's not in his best form. He did beat Federer in Shanghai so it does happen that Ramos gets some wins here and there. Last season Lajovic got to the quarters in Quito losing to Feliciano Lopez beating Vanni 7-6 6-4 in the first round and I think he's got some decent chances for a repeat. We'll see how this one goes. It will probably be close and hopefully it ends in straight sets for Lajovic.

Victor E. Burgos - Guido Pella 2.34 Matchbook
 
The champion is a surprising outsider here. He didn't start very well the season, but showed some promising things last week in Bucaramanga Challenger.
Last year Burgos stunned a lot of the favorites and it will not be a problem to beat Pella. He's got 3:2 advantage in direct matchups. Burgos has a lot of points to defend so he must show his prime game here. Pella is very good clay player, but it will be his first match for the season on red court.
 
Dusan Lajovic - Albert Ramos 2.72 Pinnacle
 
Lajovic took two sets from Bautista Agut in Australian open. However hard is his worst surface and he will be far better on clay. Lajovic is on the run after very strong last season. In 2015 he made some good results during South American tournaments and will be looking for improvement. Ramos is a class on clay, but he has problems playing in South America. It will be very close match and I see Lajovic's odds as value bet.

Victor E. Burgos - Guido Pella 2.34 Matchbook
 
The champion is a surprising outsider here. He didn't start very well the season, but showed some promising things last week in Bucaramanga Challenger.
Last year Burgos stunned a lot of the favorites and it will not be a problem to beat Pella. He's got 3:2 advantage in direct matchups. Burgos has a lot of points to defend so he must show his prime game here. Pella is very good clay player, but it will be his first match for the season on red court.
 
Dusan Lajovic - Albert Ramos 2.72 Pinnacle
 
Lajovic took two sets from Bautista Agut in Australian open. However hard is his worst surface and he will be far better on clay. Lajovic is on the run after very strong last season. In 2015 he made some good results during South American tournaments and will be looking for improvement. Ramos is a class on clay, but he has problems playing in South America. It will be very close match and I see Lajovic's odds as value bet.

One proposition from today's final of Bucaramanga challenger:
 
Melzer - Lorenzi  3.87 Pinnacle
 
Melzer is playing very well here. He improves his game with each match. He missed the chance to participate in qualifications in Quito, because of the final so he will put everything. This is one of the best seasons for the Austrian, who already won a chalenger title on clay in Mendoza.
Lorenzi for sure is very strong on clay, but he already lost from Melzer here a year ago. The Italian veteran needed three sets in three of his four matches here. He came here directly from Australia and the conditions in Bucaramanga are different. His last two matches lasted 2.30 and almost 3 hours, so the veteran may have some problems with gaz.
In the worst scenario the match is 50-50, but the odds are great for Melzer.
 
 

One proposition from today's final of Bucaramanga challenger:
 
Melzer - Lorenzi  3.87 Pinnacle
 
Melzer is playing very well here. He improves his game with each match. He missed the chance to participate in qualifications in Quito, because of the final so he will put everything. This is one of the best seasons for the Austrian, who already won a chalenger title on clay in Mendoza.
Lorenzi for sure is very strong on clay, but he already lost from Melzer here a year ago. The Italian veteran needed three sets in three of his four matches here. He came here directly from Australia and the conditions in Bucaramanga are different. His last two matches lasted 2.30 and almost 3 hours, so the veteran may have some problems with gaz.
In the worst scenario the match is 50-50, but the odds are great for Melzer.